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Ser_ Felipe Dayne

What do you think would have happened if Edmure had not attacked Tywin and his army in the fords?

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I believe that King's Landing would have conquered been by Stannis

Edited by Ser Felipe Lannister

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Stannis takes KL but remember Tyrells have agreed to the betrothal in advance so they are still coming. Unless Stannis gets a hold of Joffrey taking the city would be useless. Killing  Joffrey is again useless with Tommen available for marriage, he must have Joffrey at hand and safely tucked at Dragonstone. No marriage to a king meansTyrells will only play for so long.

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Well, to be pedantic, Edmure waited for Tywin to attack him. I don't have to point to the passage as we know Edmure and his vassals fortified all the known crossings.

But the most likely outcome is that Stannis takes KL. I doubt that ends the war and there is always the remaining chance the Tyrells still take Stannis from behind due to LF's negotiations.

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59 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Bem, para ser pedante, Edmure esperou por Tywin para atacá-lo. Eu não tenho que apontar para a passagem, como sabemos Edmure e seus vassalos fortificaram todos os cruzamentos conhecidos.

Mas o resultado mais provável é que Stannis leva KL. Eu duvido que termine a guerra e sempre há a chance de os Tyrells continuarem a tirar Stannis por trás devido às negociações da LF.

 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Stannis leva KL, mas lembre-se de que Tyrells concordou com o noivado com antecedência para que eles ainda estejam chegando. A menos que Stannis se afaste de Joffrey, a cidade seria inútil. Matar Joffrey é novamente inútil com Tommen disponível para casamento, ele deve ter Joffrey à mão e seguramente escondido em Dragonstone. Nenhum casamento com um rei significa que Tyrells só vai jogar por tanto tempo.

With King's Landing being captured and Cersei, Tommen and Joffrey made of refens, there would be no way to negotiate with the Tyrells

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The Tyrells led the Van that attacked Stannis.  I see no reason to think they would not have still taken him in the rear and defeated him on their own.

With Robb defeated in the West, and Roose Bolton in command of the northern foot in the Riverlands, it seems to me nothing would change. Roose would take command when he got back North.

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5 hours ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

I believe that King's Landing would have conquered been by Stannis

The Tyrells were on their way, already on the Blackwater before Tywin met up with them 

"you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler's Falls, where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges." 

 

Thrre is nothing in the books to suggest they needed Tywin's support to beat Stannis, their actions to the factions that did take Stannis' side 

"Perhaps he never reached Bitterbridge. Or perhaps he's died there. Lord Tarly has seized Renly's stores and put a great many to the sword; Florents, chiefly. Lord Caswell has shut himself up in his castle."

 

suggest that they were firmly against Stannis being King and Olenna's words show that Mace was intended on having his prize

"My son ought to take the puff fish for his sigil, if truth be told. He could put a crown on it, the way the Baratheons do their stag, mayhap that would make him happy. We should have stayed well out of all this bloody foolishness if you ask me, but once the cow's been milked there's no squirting the cream back up her udder. After Lord Puff Fish put that crown on Renly's head, we were into the pudding up to our knees, so here we are to see things through. And what do you say to that, Sansa?"

 

It seems likely that the Tyrells would have acted regardless of Tywin. Stannis would still be defeated, and perhaps Robb too who may well have been bedridden while Tywin was marching against him. 

And of course there is the fact that a messenger could still have reached Tywin regardless of Edmure's actions and he could still have made Kings Landing. Robb was desperate to get the Freys on side and needed a sacrificial lamb, Edmure was that lamb and he needed to feel guilty enough to not only accept a Frey bride but to marry her as quickly as possible. 

Robb, who had no idea that the Tyrells were even an option, could not possibly know what they would or would not have done. Yet Edmure gets blamed regardless. 

 

2 hours ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

 

 

With King's Landing being captured and Cersei, Tommen and Joffrey made of refens, there would be no way to negotiate with the Tyrells

Tommen is safe at Rosby

 

 

 

Edited by Bernie Mac

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39 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Os Tyrells estavam a caminho, já no Blackwater antes de Tywin se encontrar com eles 

"você atrasou o tempo suficiente para que os cavaleiros saíssem de Bitterbridge para chegar com ele com a palavra do que estava acontecendo para o leste. Lord Tywin virou seu anfitrião imediatamente, juntou-se a Matthis Rowan e Randyll Tarly perto das cabeceiras do Blackwater e fez uma marcha forçada para Tumbler's Falls, onde ele encontrou Mace Tyrell e dois de seus filhos esperando com um grande anfitrião e uma frota de  barcaças ". 

 

Thrre não é nada nos livros para sugerir que eles precisavam do apoio de Tywin para derrotar Stannis, suas ações para as facções que levaram o lado de Stannis 

"Talvez ele nunca tenha chegado a Bitterbridge. Ou talvez ele tenha morrido lá. Lord Tarly aproveitou as lojas de Renly e colocou uma grande espada,  Florents , principalmente. Lord Caswell se fechou em seu castelo".

 

sugerem que eles estavam firmemente contra Stannis sendo o rei e as palavras de Olenna mostram que Mace foi destinado a ter seu prêmio

"Meu filho deve pegar o peixe inchado por seu sigilo, se a verdade seja dita. Ele poderia colocar uma coroa nele, como os Baratheons fazem seus veados, talvez isso o fará feliz. Nós deveríamos ter ficado bem de tudo isso uma tolice sangrenta se você me perguntar, mas uma vez que a vaca foi ordeñada, não há esguichar o creme de volta ao úbere. Depois de Lord Puff Fish colocar essa coroa na cabeça de Renly, estávamos no pudim nos joelhos, então aqui estamos para ver as coisas. E o que você diz para isso, Sansa? "

 

Parece provável que os Tyrells tenham atuado independentemente do Tywin. Stannis ainda seria derrotado, e talvez Robb também pudesse ter sido acamado enquanto Tywin estava marchando contra ele. 

E, claro, há o fato de que um mensageiro ainda poderia ter alcançado Tywin independentemente das ações de Edmure e ele ainda poderia ter feito Kings Landing. Robb estava desesperado por conseguir o Freys no lado e precisava de um cordeiro sacrificado, Edmure era aquele cordeiro e ele precisava se sentir culpado o suficiente para não só aceitar uma noiva Frey, mas se casar com ela o mais rápido possível. 

Robb, que não tinha idéia de que os Tyrells eram mesmo uma opção, não podiam saber o que eles teriam ou não teriam feito. Contudo, Edmure é culpado, independentemente. 

 

Tommen está seguro em Rosby

 

 

 

Sorry, I forgot that Tommen was in Rosby during the battle. But you're saying that the Tyrells would have attacked regardless of Tywin not having arrived?

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4 minutes ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

Sorry, I forgot that Tommen was in Rosby during the battle. But you're saying that the Tyrells would have attacked regardless of Tywin not having arrived?

While only GRRM can answer this with any certainty their actions and words seem to suggest that they would. They were already in the Riverlands, 50k+ armies don't travel hundreds of miles if they are not already invested in a decision. 

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6 hours ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

I believe that King's Landing would have conquered been by Stannis

Eddie would have done something else tactically sound but strategically stupid to stop tywin from crossing some other river  and allow him to get to the KL and stop stannis so the books would continue as written 

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Embora apenas o GRRM possa responder com alguma certeza, suas ações e palavras parecem sugerir que sim. Eles já estavam no Riverlands, 50k + os exércitos não viajam centenas de milhas se eles ainda não estiverem investidos em uma decisão. 

 

1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Eddie teria feito algo mais som tático, mas estrategicamente estúpido para impedir que Tywin cruzasse algum outro rio e lhe permitisse chegar ao KL e parar os stannis para que os livros continuassem conforme escrito 

I think Stannis would conquer the city, but Tywin would surround the city and Stannis and the plebs would starve

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15 hours ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

 

 

With King's Landing being captured and Cersei, Tommen and Joffrey made of refens, there would be no way to negotiate with the Tyrells

Tommen was away as said earlier and Cersei is useless for getting an alliance, ,proposing her to marry Willas is to strengthen an existing alliance, not for making one. Mace won't accept any alliance marriage with anyone who isn't sitting his arse on a throne or carrying a crown on top of their head, but marrying a woman proven to be fertile to his crippled and not so young son is a good bonus.

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12 hours ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

 

I think Stannis would conquer the city, but Tywin would surround the city and Stannis and the plebs would starve

Tywin and Stannis have the same amount of men, and Kings Landing has a river and an ocean to get supplies from.  The city was starving before because Stannis was blockading it by sea, and the Tyrells cut them off from the Reach, while Tywin had already cut them off from the Riverlands.  

That doesn't even take into account what this thread is all about, which is Tywin not being there because he went West.

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20 hours ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

I believe that King's Landing would have conquered been by Stannis

He would have taken King's Landing, probably. Without the Lannisters in KL there is no guarantee that Tyrells would have come to fight Stannis. They very likely would have continued to starve the city, as they were already doing, which would have forced Stannis to take action as soon as possible.

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18 minutes ago, Faera said:

He would have taken King's Landing, probably. Without the Lannisters in KL there is no guarantee that Tyrells would have come to fight Stannis. They very likely would have continued to starve the city, as they were already doing, which would have forced Stannis to take action as soon as possible.

Food from Stormlands could be arriving to the city.

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42 minutes ago, Faera said:

He would have taken King's Landing, probably. Without the Lannisters in KL there is no guarantee that Tyrells would have come to fight Stannis. 

They'd already come. The host Renly left was located in Bitterbridge (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bitterbridge) amd Tywin meets up with the Tyrell army on the Blackwater. They'd already came, they'd made their agreement. 

 

26 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Food from Stormlands could be arriving to the city.

The Reach is the breadbasket of Westeros, not the Stormlands. And even if there was such food storage there, how would it reach Kings Landing before Tywin?

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51 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

They'd already come. The host Renly left was located in Bitterbridge (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bitterbridge) amd Tywin meets up with the Tyrell army on the Blackwater. They'd already came, they'd made their agreement. 

 

The Reach is the breadbasket of Westeros, not the Stormlands. And even if there was such food storage there, how would it reach Kings Landing before Tywin?

If Tywin opposes Stannis he kills Tyrion and Cersei. When Stannis takes KL it is game over for Tywin.

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28 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

If Tywin opposes Stannis he kills Tyrion and Cersei. When Stannis takes KL it is game over for Tywin.

You think Stannis would spare Cersei even if he was able to capture both Kings Landing and the Red Keep before either Tywin or the Tyrells turned up? She was due to be executed for her treason

Stannis only seemed to half hear him. "I have no doubt that Cersei had a hand in Robert's death. I will have justice for him. Aye, and for Ned Stark and Jon Arryn as well."

 

 

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Há 2 horas, Tygett Greenshield disse:

O alimento de Stormlands poderia estar chegando à cidade.

 

Há 2 horas, Bernie Mac disse:

Eles já vieram. O anfitrião Renly à esquerda foi localizado em Bitterbridge ( http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bitterbridge ) e Tywin encontra-se com o exército de Tyrell no Blackwater. Eles já vieram, eles concordaram. 

 

The Reach é o celeiro de Westeros, não as Stormlands. E mesmo que houvesse tal armazenamento de alimentos lá, como seria chegar a Kings Landing antes do Tywin?

Stormlands and a fertile region, not as fertile as Reach or Vale, but a rather fertile region. But I do not think the trains would arrive on time

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3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

They'd already come. The host Renly left was located in Bitterbridge (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bitterbridge) amd Tywin meets up with the Tyrell army on the Blackwater. They'd already came, they'd made their agreement.

Yet they waited for Tywin. Why? They didn't need his army to beat Stannis; they didn't need food or gold. So why wait?

IMO, they waited because Mace is an indecisive fool who was unwilling to actually take the final step and act without Tywin's presence. In RR he sat and besieged Storms End instead of pursuing Robert and ending the war. If; and IMO its a big if; the Tyrells march to the city without Tywin, then Mace would attempt the same thing again, with a good deal less success this time.

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Há 26 minutos, Adam Yozza disse:

No entanto, eles esperaram por Tywin. Por quê? Eles não precisavam de seu exército para vencer Stannis; eles não precisavam de comida ou ouro. Então, por que esperar?

IMO, eles esperaram porque Mace é um tolo indeciso que não estava disposto a realmente dar o último passo e agir sem a presença de Tywin. No RR, ele se sentou e sitiou Storms End em vez de perseguir Robert e terminar a guerra. E se; e IMO é um grande se; Os Tyrells marcham para a cidade sem Tywin, então Mace tentaria o mesmo novamente, com um bom negócio menos sucesso desta vez.

Yes, Mace Tyrell and pessimo military commander, even though chances to defeat Stannis in numerical advantage he was not willing to attack without Tywin
 

Edited by Ser Felipe Lannister

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