What do you think would have happened if Edmure had not attacked Tywin and his army in the fords?

[Bernie Mac]

25 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Yet they waited for Tywin. Why? They didn't need his army to beat Stannis; they didn't need food or gold. So why wait?

Most likely to build the fleet of barges that would take them down the Blackwater. 

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IMO, they waited because Mace is an indecisive fool who was unwilling to actually take the final step and act without Tywin's presence.

He managed to rebel against the Crown and declare Renly King with out Tywin's assistance. 

He managed to reject Stannis' offer and kill or imprison men who were likely to accept Stannis' offer

He managed to quickly accept the Crown's offer and get to the Blackwater in a very short period. 

Even after these events we see him raise an army to march on the Storm's End in pretty quick time. 

The idea that he is indecisive does not really hold up to scruting when we evaluate the character in ASOIAF. 

 

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In RR he sat and besieged Storms End instead of pursuing Robert and ending the war.

So one possible example 20 years ago. And the author is pretty clear on why Storm's End was important during the War

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Siege_of_Storms_End

"Storm's End was not geographically strategic, but it was the base of Robert's power, as important to House Baratheon as Winterfell was to the Starks. If it had fallen, Robert would have lost his home and his lands... and two of his brothers would have been hostages in enemy hands. All important chips. Also the fall of Storm's End might have convinced many of the storm lords supporting him that the time had come to bend the knee. So the castle was hardly unimportant."

 

So the author does not think this was indecisive. Look what happened to Robb when Winterfell was taken and his two brothers believed dead. 

 

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If; and IMO its a big if; the Tyrells march to the city without Tywin, then Mace would attempt the same thing again, with a good deal less success this time.

Attempt what? Stannis has not captured the city when the Tyrells arrived. He and his army, many of whom changed sides at the sight of the Tyrell's numbers and the ghost of Renly, were outside the castle and swiftly beaten. 

Loras, Garlan, Tarly, Rowan and others are part of Mace's team. They would have crushed Stannis before he took the city as their prize. Joffrey's hand in marriage, was at stake. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

18 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Yet they waited for Tywin. Why? They didn't need his army to beat Stannis; they didn't need food or gold. So why wait?

IMO, they waited because Mace is an indecisive fool who was unwilling to actually take the final step and act without Tywin's presence. In RR he sat and besieged Storms End instead of pursuing Robert and ending the war. If; and IMO its a big if; the Tyrells march to the city without Tywin, then Mace would attempt the same thing again, with a good deal less success this time.

They didn't wait. They marched hundreds of miles to meet up with Tywin

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They didn't wait. They marched hundreds of miles to meet up with Tywin

They marched up to the Blackwater from Bitterbridge. Instead of marching straight to Kings Landing and attacking Stannis on their own they instead marched to the Blackwater and then waited for Tywin's army to arrive before they moved against Stannis.

[Universal Sword Donor]

37 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

They marched up to the Blackwater from Bitterbridge. Instead of marching straight to Kings Landing and attacking Stannis on their own they instead marched to the Blackwater and then waited for Tywin's army to arrive before they moved against Stannis.

“When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork,” said the Blackfish, “you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler’s Falls, where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges. They floated down the river, disembarked half a day’s ride from the city, and took Stannis in the rear.”
 

Waiting for your ally and the power behind the throne is pragmatic and politically smart -- you don't steal the glory for yourself -- even if you're not waiting for him specifically. Remember Tarly had basically all the Reach infantry. You know what is better than attacking with 2:1 manpower? Attacking with 4:1 advantage in manpower. Literally nothing the Tyrells did in the prelude to the BotB was indecisive. It was calculated, sure. Calculated and smart

[The hairy bear]

It's true that the Tyrells were already marching towards KL before Tywin joined them, and it's very likely that they would also have engaged Stannis even if the Lannister forces had not joined them on time (after all, they had thrice Stannis' numbers alone).

But I'm not convinced that they would have reached King's Landing as early as they did. The Tyrells may not be inclined to commit their entire army to fight for the Lannisters while Tywin was playing cat and mouse across the Riverlands. It would not be fair to crown a Lannister king when only the Tyrells spilled blood.

Also, if they had been a little bit devious (an the Queen of Thorns certainly is) they could think that it would be better for them to wait for Stannis to inflict severe damage to the Lannisters. If they where weakened, the Tyrells could get better terms after the war. In fact, the deaths of Joffrey, Cersei and Tyrion would be a best case scenario for the Tyrells: Margaery marries Tommen (who is far more controllable) and besides the Iron Throne their heirs also get the Stormlands and the West.

So, in short, I think that if Edmure had not stopped Tywin, the Tyrells would have arrived a couple of hours later. Tyrion would be dead, and depending on how careless he had been, Stannis would be trapped inside the city while trying to storm the Red Keep.

[The Last Wolf]

5 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

É verdade que os Tyrells já estavam marchando em direção a KL antes que Tywin se juntasse a eles, e é muito provável que eles também tivessem contratado Stannis, mesmo que as forças de Lannister não tivessem se juntado a eles no tempo (afinal, eles tinham três números de Stannis sozinhos).

Mas não estou convencido de que eles teriam alcançado King's Landing o quanto antes. Os Tyrells podem não estar inclinados a cometer todo o seu exército para lutar pelos Lannisters enquanto Tywin estava tocando gato e mouse por todo o Riverlands. Não seria justo coroar um rei Lannister quando apenas os Tyrells derramaram sangue.

Além disso, se eles tivessem sido um pouco tortuosos (uma Rainha de espinhos certamente), eles poderiam pensar que seria melhor esperar que Stannis causasse danos severos aos Lannisters. Se eles se enfraqueceram, os Tyrells poderiam obter melhores termos após a guerra. De fato, as mortes de Joffrey, Cersei e Tyrion seriam o melhor caso para os Tyrells: Margaery se casa com Tommen (que é muito mais controlável) e, além do Trono de Ferro, seus herdeiros também recebem as Terras e o Oeste.

Então, em resumo, acho que, se Edmure não tivesse parado de Tywin, os Tyrells teriam chegado algumas horas depois. Tyrion estava morto e, dependendo de quão descuidado tivesse sido, Stannis ficaria preso dentro da cidade enquanto tentava assustar o Red Keep.

 

6 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

"Quando você parou Lord Tywin no Red Fork", disse o Blackfish, "você o demorou o suficiente para que os cavaleiros de Bitterbridge o alcançassem com a palavra do que estava acontecendo para o leste. Lord Tywin virou seu anfitrião de uma só vez, juntou-se a Matthis Rowan e Randyll Tarly, perto das cabeceiras do Blackwater, e fez uma marcha forçada para Tumbler's Falls, onde encontrou Mace Tyrell e dois de seus filhos esperando com um grande anfitrião e uma frota de barcaças. Eles flutuaram pelo rio, desembarcaram a meio dia de viagem da cidade e levaram Stannis na parte de trás.
 

Esperar o seu aliado e o poder por trás do trono é pragmático e politicamente inteligente - você não rouba a glória por si mesmo - mesmo que não o espere especificamente. Lembre-se de que Tarly tinha basicamente toda a infantería Reach. Você sabe o que é melhor do que atacar com mão-de-obra 2: 1? Atacando com vantagem 4: 1 na mão de obra. Literalmente, nada que os Tyrells fizeram no prelúdio para o BotB foi indeciso. Foi calculado, com certeza. Calculado e inteligente

Joffrey and Cersei would probably be killed by Stannis or taken hostage, so as you said maybe Margaery would marry Tommen, and then the town would be renocched a few months after the siege and Stannis would be executed.

[Wild Bill]

1) Stannis assaulted KL - would the assault have succeeded without Tyrell (the Lannister army successfully lured too far west)? If the assault failed, Stannis must try to besiege KL with a relief army attacking him.

2) If Stannis succeeds in the assault on KL, he still has to take the Red Keep. So far as I know, KL has reasonable ramparts and such, but the Red Keep is quite formidable. This could lead to a situation where Stannis assaults/besieges the Red Keep from KL while being assaulted/besieged by the Tyrell army.

I think Stannis is screwed. At best, he may even take the Red Keep, but still end up being besieged with no way out. Perhaps, though, Tyrell motivations are now in question since the elimination of the dynastic marriage might remove their motivation - Stannis could offer a Loras-Shireen match, or even Stannis-Maegory (getting rid of Selyse somehow).

[The Last Wolf]

Eu acredito que Stannis nunca teria feito uma proposta ou vice-versa porque eles eram inimigos e, provavelmente, os Tyrells estarão ao redor da cidade na época.
eles já estavam planejando se casar com Margaery com Joffrey antes de se deparar com Tywin

[Wild Bill]

17 minutes ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

Eu acredito que Stannis nunca teria feito uma proposta ou vice-versa porque eles eram inimigos e, provavelmente, os Tyrells estarão ao redor da cidade na época.
eles já estavam planejando se casar com Margaery com Joffrey antes de se deparar com Tywin

I agree that Stannis would not likely make a proposal, but Stannis would be in a real problem. Perhaps he burns his daughter at the stake, then makes a great leap toward a negotiated agreement.

[The Last Wolf]

22 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

Eu concordo que Stannis provavelmente não faria uma proposta, mas Stannis estaria em um problema real. Talvez ele queime sua filha na fogueira, então dá um grande passo em direção a um acordo negociado.

Stannis would not have burned her since she was in Dragon Stone

[Wild Bill]

10 minutes ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

It would not have burned it since it was DragonStone

I think we have some translation problems.

[The Last Wolf]

Sorry, I'm Brazilian so my English is not that good.

[Wild Bill]

41 minutes ago, Ser Felipe Lannister said:

Sorry, I'm Brazilian so my English is not that good.

No worries...

I have been doing Spanish translations, not Portuguese. My apologies...

But, I will guess that you are saying that Stannis would never burn his daughter alive. I agree, in principle, but, perhaps, in the worst circumstances... He might.

[Corvo the Crow]

10 hours ago, Wild Bill said:

1) Stannis assaulted KL - would the assault have succeeded without Tyrell (the Lannister army successfully lured too far west)? If the assault failed, Stannis must try to besiege KL with a relief army attacking him.

2) If Stannis succeeds in the assault on KL, he still has to take the Red Keep. So far as I know, KL has reasonable ramparts and such, but the Red Keep is quite formidable. This could lead to a situation where Stannis assaults/besieges the Red Keep from KL while being assaulted/besieged by the Tyrell army.

I think Stannis is screwed. At best, he may even take the Red Keep, but still end up being besieged with no way out. Perhaps, though, Tyrell motivations are now in question since the elimination of the dynastic marriage might remove their motivation - Stannis could offer a Loras-Shireen match, or even Stannis-Maegory (getting rid of Selyse somehow).

This is Stannis Baratheon we're talking about. He'll fight to the bitter end and then some. He'll break before he bends. He once held Storm's end through a year of siege, surviving on rats and boot leather while the Lords Tyreall and Redwyne sat outside with their hosts, banqueting in sight of his walls.

I believe he'll sooner cook Shireen and eat her during a siege than marry her to Loras, who is the reason Margaery is like to die a maid in Renly's bed.

[Wild Bill]

Not that there was a question in my post, but I guess your response is NO.

You reject diplo approaches by Stannis, which I find quite plausible. The best case, then, for Stannis is to hold out in the Red Keep as long as the food reserves exist. Though, I think you sprint to the end of the siege. Before Shireen's unfortunate end in this scenario. Surely Stannis would keep Cercei and Tommen alive for a bit as potential bargaining chips (yes, I know you've rejected diplo solutions) - they would be eaten first, then Selyse, and then...

I would like to think that Stannis would do a murder/suicide in regards to Shireen.

[the Red Woman was not part of the Battle for Blackwater, but if she ended up besieged, what might Stannis do?]

Anyway, general horrors in the books, and much worse in reality, if any one of us was in a besieged city in... any time in history.