So if Robb doesn't send Theon to the Iron Islands...

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Before the battle in the Whispering Wood Robb should have told his men that if Theon was close to crossing swords with Jaime Lannister then they should disengage and let Theon fight Jaime by himself. Then when Theon gets close like in canon one of Robb's men could bump Theon into Jaime's direction. Jaime would kill Theon and then be captured afterwords. Robb could then send Balon a raven saying Theon fought valiantly against the Kingslayer but was slayed by Lannister trickery before he could kill him. Robb could also mention in the letter that he'll hold Jaime as a hostage for King Balon to execute himself. Balon would be bound by Iron Born machismo to avenge his son in the eyes of his fellow Iron Born by fighting the Lannsters after he kills Jaime.

Or after the battle in the Whispering Wood Robb could get Theon extremely drunk and and talk him into killing Jaime Lannister while he was held as a prisoner with his trusty bow. Then news would spread to Balon and Tywin that Theon Greyjoy killed Tywin's favorite son and Balon would have no choice but to fight against the Lannisters because Tywin would look to avenge Jaime by wiping out House Greyjoy. 

Alas Robb would never approve of any of these plots so it's a moot point.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

Balon had already thought/decided to attack the North. With Ned dead and Robb fighting in the south it would be easier. Balon had given up on Theon.

Still it was a bad idea to send Theon to his father as that triggered the events of COK: fall of Wintefell 2 times,supposed death of Bran and Rickon, Northern civil war and a chance for Boltons to cover their treachery.

[The Sunland Lord]

A raven would do just fine.

And not in that stage of the war, but when he was calling his northern vassals in a GoT.

A raven to the Iron Islands with a proposition for alliance with Theon still by his side. That way he'd have nothing to lose and would know on what ground with the Greyjoys he really is from the beginning. 

[Lion of the West]

I really don't see what benefit Robb would have to keep Theon as hostage. To me it looks like Balon has already given up on Theon and has Asha as his heir. I don't think that anyone with power at Pyke will cry a river if Theon is beheaded as Balon makes his move.

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, The Sunland Lord said:

A raven would do just fine.

And not in that stage of the war, but when he was calling his northern vassals in a GoT.

A raven to the Iron Islands with a proposition for alliance with Theon still by his side. That way he'd have nothing to lose and would know on what ground with the Greyjoys he really is from the beginning. 

An alliance in what? His father was still alive, there was not an actual war in the Riverlands and Robb's intentions at that point were not independence. 

What exactly is he asking of Balon? And what incentive does Balon have of supporting Robb in this?

[Belgarad]

If Robb does not send Theon then Winterfell is never taken, Bran never leaves and meets Bloodraven for training and then he is unable to use his powers to save humanity from the Others.  Robb may have ended up saving the world by making that "poor" decision.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

6 hours ago, Belgarad said:

If Robb does not send Theon then Winterfell is never taken, Bran never leaves and meets Bloodraven for training and then he is unable to use his powers to save humanity from the Others.  Robb may have ended up saving the world by making that "poor" decision.

The Reeds may have ended up talking Bran into leaving anyway. Most likely not as soon as they did but sooner or later. Especially when Bran starts crushing hardcore on Meera.  He'd wouldn't want to let her down.

[Stormking902]

I blame Benjen he should have stayed in WF and had children of his own instead of joining the watch, with Uncle Benjen present I think Robb takes his advice way more easily then his mothers. Also more Stark heirs kicking around is a bonus for obvious reasons lol. 

[Foot_Of_The_King]

I think as long as Twyin was still s factor, Balon would not attack the riverlands. I know he did so during his first rebellion but it seems he was simply taking his best opportunity for conquest/revenge.  

[Foot_Of_The_King]

On 10/28/2017 at 3:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Balon's intention was not to reave, but to gain new lands, lands that he thought he stood a chance of holding. 

The North, with its lack of Navy, undefended coast and capital, is the risk free opportunity as opposed to the West with a Navy and a well defended capital and city. 

And of course Tywin, with the backing of the sitting King, might seem a worse person to piss off than an untested 16 year old. 

I agree with this. The Tywin factor can't be underestimated. 

[Adam Yozza]

As said above, Balon's goal was to capture new lands for himself rather than reave and plunder. In his stupidity and insanity, he decided that attacking the North was the best option, in spite of the fact that he gets pretty much no financial gain from it, the lands are far away from the Iron Islands and hard to defend/reinforce/supply, the fact that winter was right around the corner and that the North is so large that the Ironborn couldn't possibly conquer all of it nor hold it if they did.

It wouldn't have mattered if Robb had sent someone other than Theon. They would have been killed anyway and the Ironborn would still attack the North. On the other hand without Theon there neither Torrhen's Square or Winterfell fall; so morale remains high, Cat doesn't release Jaime and therefore Robb doesn't kill Karstark. Plus, with Winterfell still standing it's more than possible that Rodrik or someone else could have retaken at least Deepwood and Stony Shore before too long.

 

[The Sunland Lord]

8 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

As said above, Balon's goal was to capture new lands for himself rather than reave and plunder. In his stupidity and insanity, he decided that attacking the North was the best option, in spite of the fact that he gets pretty much no financial gain from it, the lands are far away from the Iron Islands and hard to defend/reinforce/supply, the fact that winter was right around the corner and that the North is so large that the Ironborn couldn't possibly conquer all of it nor hold it if they did.

It wouldn't have mattered if Robb had sent someone other than Theon. They would have been killed anyway and the Ironborn would still attack the North. On the other hand without Theon there neither Torrhen's Square or Winterfell fall; so morale remains high, Cat doesn't release Jaime and therefore Robb doesn't kill Karstark. Plus, with Winterfell still standing it's more than possible that Rodrik or someone else could have retaken at least Deepwood and Stony Shore before too long.

 

While I agree mostly on Balon, still Ramsay might have attacked Winterfell under some pretext. Like, "the Ironborn attacked it, like they did with other northern castles. I came there to save the day but the savages already put it to the torch and killed the civillians. I burned the Ironborn alive as a punishment and now they're all ash". Sounds even more Ramsay than what really happened there.

Because it happened after the Blackwater, when Lannisters, Boltons and Freys were already in cahoots. 

[Tygett Lannister]

8 hours ago, Foot_Of_The_King said:

I agree with this. The Tywin factor can't be underestimated. 

Yet he has no navy so he is not a direct threat to Iron Islands and by proclaiming independence he is traitor of the realm that Tywin is leading. He just made another enemy by attacking North. It was stupid act to rebel and even more stupid to than attack North that was willing to ally them. Balon wanted to be like old Ironborn that occupied Riverlands only Riverlands are much smaller and much greener easier to hold.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Ironically if Theon had not returned to the Iron Isles, things may be even worse for the Starks now.  Assuming Bran would have eventually snuck out of WF with the Reeds, that leaves Rickon in WF.  Everything else would remain unaffected.  Robb would still loose the war, and Roose would likely return north with thousands of men.  In that circumstance he likely winds up in control of Rickon, making the Starks situation even worse.

[A Ghost of Someone]

If Robb sent Cat, she in turn could have and likely would have been held hostage. 

[Bernie Mac]

7 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

As said above, Balon's goal was to capture new lands for himself rather than reave and plunder. In his stupidity and insanity, he decided that attacking the North was the best option,

That is hardly insane or stupidity. They were the easiest to take and the easiest to defend against their returning army, and in some parts of the North had a sizeable portion of  people with Ironborn blood. 

 Large tracts of the Stony Shore, Bear Island, Sea Dragon Point, and Cape Kraken have all been held by ironmen at times. Indeed, Cape Kraken, closest to the Iron Islands, has changed hands so many times that many maesters believe its populace to be closer in blood to the ironmen than to Northmen.

And then you take into account the large amount of forests it becomes a no brainer. 

The West is far harder to take, has a Navy, does not have a Moat Cailin equivalent  and any attempt in trying to take it would incur far more casualties than the North would. 

 

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in spite of the fact that he gets pretty much no financial gain from it,

They get new lands, lands full of forests and people. Of course there would be financial gain, the North are not paupers. What you mean to say is that there is more financial gain in taking the West, which is true, everyone, including Balon acknowledges this. But it is far better defended and harder to hold. Balon is being cautious,picking the weaker lands. 

I mean to carve out a kingdom with fire and sword . . . but not from the west, and not at the bidding of King Robb the Boy. Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it. No. I hunger for a different plum . . . not so juicy sweet, to be sure, yet it hangs there ripe and undefended."

 

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the lands are far away from the Iron Islands

No they are not. Dorne is far away, the Stormlands, the Crownlands and the Vale are far away. The North is close, only the Westerlands and Riverlands are closer. 

 

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and hard to defend/reinforce/supply, the fact that winter was right around the corner and that the North is so large that the Ironborn couldn't possibly conquer all of it nor hold it if they did.

You do realise this is not total war, right? Lords compromise with invaders, some make favourable deals. The idea that the North could not be held is kind of ridiculous, especially with the majority of its army almost a thousand miles away and the being on the wrong side of the North. 

Winter benefits the army in the North, not trapped outside of it. 

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 On the other hand without Theon there neither Torrhen's Square or Winterfell fall; so morale remains high, 

 

Sure they do, just Balon was willing to wait to take Winterfell. And how does morale remain high? Morale takes a hit regardless as their homeland in invaded. What you mean to have said is that morale is not as low as it was when Theon takes Winterfell. but the idea that morale remains high is a little far fetched to say the least. 

 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

On 10/28/2017 at 3:27 PM, Tygett Lannister said:

Robb could win the war if it wasn't for his stupid political decisions.

Robb losing the war had a lot more to do with the fact that a shadowbaby killed Renly then any decision Robb made . Tywin with his 20,000 men were cut off from the reinforcements and supplies of the Westerlands  and were having to deal with Robb and the Riverlords on one side and Renly and his 60,000 plus army on the other side .  Renly dies and the Reach joins Tywin and he goes from being massively outnumbered to having a huge number advantage over his enemies in one sword stroke . Nothing Robb could have done would have changed that . 

[Bernie Mac]

13 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb losing the war had a lot more to do with the fact that a shadowbaby killed Renly then any decision Robb made .

Robb would have lost against Renly as well as Tywin. His options were to swear fealty to which ever side won the Throne. 

His only hope was that the two sides bleed each other enough and never truly proclaimed the other the winner giving him a chance to keep his kingdom, but that seems to have been an unlikely scenrio. 

 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

21 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

Uncle Benjen present I think Robb takes his advice way more easily then his mothers.

Benjen most definitely would have known the importance of manning Moat Callin and keeping a close eye on a possible attack from the Iron Born. These seem like things that Rickard Stark would beat into his children's heads. 

[Trigger Warning]

On 30/10/2017 at 10:25 AM, Adam Yozza said:

As said above, Balon's goal was to capture new lands for himself rather than reave and plunder. In his stupidity and insanity, he decided that attacking the North was the best option, in spite of the fact that he gets pretty much no financial gain from it, the lands are far away from the Iron Islands and hard to defend/reinforce/supply, the fact that winter was right around the corner and that the North is so large that the Ironborn couldn't possibly conquer all of it nor hold it if they did.

If anything Winter being right around the corner makes it easier to gain a foothold in the North. The campaigning season is drawing to a close, Northern Lords would be more likely to compromise than start besieging the captured castles especially with most of their strength trapped in the South, the Ironborn would control shipping in the West and overland traffic from the South. The castles they do take won't need to be supplied from the Iron Islands, they're self sufficient and by their very nature project power. With Robb trapped in the South and a harsh Winter about to set in it's not unlikely that they'd be able to broker deals and arrangements with various nobles to expand that foothold either. 

He might not conquer the North in ten years or a century but what matters is gaining that foothold, an independent Iron Islands won't last long as a power without a strong presence on the mainland especially if the Iron Throne can rein in its vassals, which under Tywin Balon probably expected, the Winter will buy them time but Balon knows that if the Kingdoms can you unite that they are capable of staging a naval invasion of the Iron Islands, Ironborn fiefdoms and raiders out of the North act as insurance against that. The North was vulnerable as was the entirety of the Seven Kingdoms, it was the perfect opportunity to gain that foothold. 

You might not think it was a good plan but it's hardly insanity. Had he not been murdered then that foothold may have remained strong even now as Winter sets in and alliances and cooperation would be looking prettier and prettier to struggling Northerners. 
 

If anything Balon's focus on capturing castles and then projecting power from within them rather than committing to a campaign of pitched battles reflects typical medieval warfare more than anything else in the books.