OldGimletEye Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Well, we've just started the week, and you might say, it's too early to predict who will be The Conservative Dumb Ass of The Week. But, I think we've found a winner: Jeanine Pirro. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/30/16565580/what-if-trump-fires-mueller Quote Paul Manafort, Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, was indicted Monday morning, but the most important story of the weekend was a Brooke Singman Fox News piece titled “Mueller facing new Republican pressure to resign in Russia probe.” Quote But over the weekend, Fox’s Jeanine Pirro called on Congress to “shut it down,” “turn the tables,” and “lock her up.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said: It's actually not looking bad at all. Mueller indicted for "Conspiracy to Commit Money Laundering" under 18 USC 371 instead of money laundering itself (18 USC 1956). Conspiracy only carries 5 years imprisonment vs money laundering's 20 year imprisonment. Also, he didn't indict him for mortgage fraud, which would have been the other hammer. I don't think any of the charges against him carry more than a five year penalty max, and even then the sentences for each charge will be served concurrently. With sentencing guidelines, he probably won't even serve that much time. Fair enough but the question is then whether Manafort/Gates made a deal for reduced charges. ETA: Not being a lawyer, not entirely sure how this works but if they're found guilty on all 12 charges, wouldn't they face more than 5 years given the multiple counts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennis of the Brown Shield Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Regarding AI and automation, if you have some time to kill then I think this White House report on the subject from 2016 is worth a read. https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/images/EMBARGOED AI Economy Report.pdf What I think was particularly interesting were the historical reflections on the nature of skills demanded for new jobs. For big chunks of the industrial period the trend actually appears to have been moving in the opposite direction of what is feared by many people regarding AI today, in that a lot of newly created jobs back then demanded less education and skills to do than those they replaced (factory workers vs. guild affiliated craftsmen for example), thus leading to decreases in income inequality and the leveling out of wages. However, from the beginning of the digital era and onwards the pendulum has been swinging in the other direction, with middle and low skill jobs becoming less in demand while highly skilled professionals (like IT-experts) have become more valuable, thus explaining at least part of the increase in wage inequality in America from the 1980's and onward. Previously I had believed that technological advancement had had a pretty linear effect on demanding increasingly more sophisticated skills from the labor force, but that does not appear to have held up historically. On the contrary, the demands on the labor force appear to have swung back and forth between different periods. That is something to keep in mind regarding the coming AI and automation wave, I think. It is not guaranteed that most the new jobs that end up being created will be hugely demanding in terms of intelligence or education, thus leaving a significant part of the population permanently unemployable. It could be that technological assistance also ends up simplifying a lot of previously complicated jobs to the point where most people can do them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 55 minutes ago, Mexal said: Conspiracy against the US. 12 counts in the indictment. This ain’t looking great. This screams flip or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, The Mance said: Maybe. But TrumpCo will just fight any financial allegations in court until the day he dies. That's just business as usual for him. I'd be happier for something with real political ramifications right now, today. Not really true: Trump historically settles cases out of court fairly frequently. He only talks about fighting. But this is admittedly different in that he potentially has a lot more to lose by admitting wrongdoing. Still, if he can find a way to do a deal without having to resign I'm sure he will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morpheus Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: Well, we've just started the week, and you might say, it's too early to predict who will be The Conservative Dumb Ass of The Week. But, I think we've found a winner: Jeanine Pirro. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/30/16565580/what-if-trump-fires-mueller The attempt to create a Russia scandal for Clinton is so blatantly false and desperate, it may be a new low for coordinated lies by Trump and the RNC. The wild claims about the uranium deal are easily debunked, oppo research is nothing new, and a few months ago Republicans were shooting down claims that Mueller was biased. With how hamfistedly they are spinning this new narrative, Republicans are all but admitting that they know Trump cannot walk away from this clean, so they have to have a united front to discredit Mueller when the inevitable occurs. All of that is not to mention that "they did bad thigs too!" is a really bad defense strategy outside of a preschool class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bold Barry Whitebeard Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, Mexal said: Fair enough but the question is then whether Manafort/Gates made a deal for reduced charges. If Mueller were serious about looking for a deal, he would have included the heavier charges. Right now he doesn't have much to work with, since you could drop half the charges and still not substantively change the sentence Manafort/Gates are facing. The only deal that I see as being worthwhile would be to drop the forfeiture of his property, and I don't see that happening. Further, given how Manafort/Gates weren't charged with anything after 2015, if they make a deal it would likely be against people involved in their scheme, which in this case would be Podesta's lobbying group (either company A or Company B in the indictment.) But given the charges filed by Mueller, I don't foresee Manafort leading to anything bigger. If you're hoping for a Trump ending conspiracy, your next hope is going to have to be on Flynn being indicted for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 On 10/30/2017 at 10:18 AM, Morpheus said: The attempt to create a Russia scandal for Clinton is so blatantly false and desperate, it may be a new low for coordinated lies by Trump and the RNC. The wild claims about the uranium deal are easily debunked, oppo research is nothing new, and a few months ago Republicans were shooting down claims that Mueller was biased. With how hamfistedly they are spinning this new narrative, Republicans are all but admitting that they know Trump cannot walk away from this clean, so they have to have a united front to discredit Mueller when the inevitable occurs. All of that is not to mention that "they did bad thigs too!" is a really bad defense strategy outside of a preschool class. It's just pathetic that they are saying, "but, but, but Hillary!" Just another data point that the Republican Party is one sorry ass party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said: It's actually not looking bad at all. Mueller indicted for "Conspiracy to Commit Money Laundering" under 18 USC 371 instead of money laundering itself (18 USC 1956). Conspiracy only carries 5 years imprisonment vs money laundering's 20 year imprisonment. Also, he didn't indict him for mortgage fraud, which would have been the other hammer. I don't think any of the charges against him carry more than a five year penalty max, and even then the sentences for each charge will be served concurrently. With sentencing guidelines, he probably won't even serve that much time. I just read the indictment. The first charge was Conspiracy against the US (18 US 371). The second charge is Conspiracy to Commit Money Laundering (18 USC 1956). Both charges weren't under 18 US 371, only the first one. Might have read this wrong... Quote COUNT ONE (Conspiracy Against The United States) 37. Paragraphs 1 through 30 and 32 through 36 are incorporated here. 38. From in or about and between 2006 and 2017, both dates being approximate and inclusive, in the District of Columbia and elsewhere, the defendants PAUL J. MANAFORT, JR., and RICHARD W. GATES III, together with others, knowingly and intentionally conspired to defraud the United States by impeding, impairing, obstructing, and defeating the lawful governmental functions of a government agency, namely the Department of Justice and the Department of the Treasury, and to commit offenses against the United States, to wit, the violations of law charged 23 in Counts Three through Six and Ten through Twelve. 39. In furtherance of the conspiracy and to effect its illegal object, MANAFORT and GATES committed the overt acts noted in Count Eleven and the overt acts, among others, in the District of Columbia and elsewhere as set forth in paragraphs 9, 16, 17,20-25, 32, and 34-36, which are incorporated herein. (18 U.S.c. § 371) COUNT TWO (Conspiracy To Launder Money) 40. Paragraphs 1 through 30 and 32 through 36 are incorporated here. 41. In or around and between 2006 and 2016, both dates being approximate and inclusive, within the District of Columbia and elsewhere, the defendants PAUL J. MANAFORT, JR., and RICHARD W. GATES III, together with others, did knowingly and intentionally conspire to: (a) transport, transmit, and transfer monetary instruments and funds from places outside the United States to and through places in the United States and from places in the United States to and through places outside the United States, with the intent to promote the carrying on of specified unlawful activity, to wit: a felony violation of the FARA, in violation of Title 22, United States Code, Sections 612 and 618 (the "Specified Unlawful Activity"), contrary to Title 18, United States Code, Section 1956(a)(2)(A); and (b) conduct financial transactions, affecting interstate and foreign commerce, knowing that the property involved in the financial transactions would represent the proceeds of some form of unlawful activity, and the transactions in fact would involve the proceeds of Specified Unlawful Activity, knowing that such financial transactions were designed in whole and in part (i) to engage in conduct constituting a violation of sections 7201 and 24 7206 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, and (ii) to conceal and disguise the nature, location, source, ownership, and control of the proceeds of the Specified Unlawful Activity, contrary to Title 18, United States Code, Section 1956(a)(l)(A)(ii) and 1956(a)(l )(B)(i). (18 U.S.C. § 1956(h)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 Of course, now there is this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morpheus Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: It's just pathetic that they are saying, "but, but, but Hillary!" Just another data point that the Republican Party is one sorry ass party. Here is a Republican being humiliated when they try to use current talking points http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/10/29/watch_msnbc_s_joy_reid_expertly_debunk_lies_around_uranium_clinton_story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bold Barry Whitebeard Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mexal said: I just read the indictment. The first charge was Conspiracy against the US (18 US 371). The second charge is Conspiracy to Commit Money Laundering (18 USC 1956). Both charges weren't under 18 US 371, only the first one. Might have read this wrong... I think you're right, I assumed that the 18USC charge at the top of the count was referring to the one below it. Reading the 18USC 1956H does say that conspiracy to commit money laundering carries the same penalty as money laundering itself, which means they're on the hook for $500,00 fine or twice the value of their crime, (i.e. appx $150,000,000) and twenty years. So they could potentially make a deal to drop the money laundering charge, which would substantively affect their sentence. Even still, you generally don't make a proffer statement regarding crimes that you weren't charged with. I still believe that Mueller isn't expecting a deal that would turn Manafort against Trump. So far, Manafort's defense seems to be that he can't be an unregistered agent of a foreign power since he never directly lobbied for Ukraine. If that's successful, then he can't be found guilty of money laundering, as money laundering requires a specified unlawful activity, in this case, being the unregistered agent of a foreign power. I don't think his defense is very strong though, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 On 10/30/2017 at 10:32 AM, Morpheus said: Here is a Republican being humiliated when they try to use current talking points http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/10/29/watch_msnbc_s_joy_reid_expertly_debunk_lies_around_uranium_clinton_story.html Thanks for the link. This gets back, I think, to my earlier point about centristism. If your best reading of evidence and logic gets you at a centrist position, then fine. But, those same things should lead you to conclude there is something deeply, deeply, wrong with the Republican Party and American Conservatism right now. And if you are saying something like, “but, but, both sides ...are equally bad” in order to build your centristry cred, you are making a grievous error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said: I think you're right, I assumed that the 18USC charge at the top of the count was referring to the one below it. Reading the 18USC 1956H does say that conspiracy to commit money laundering carries the same penalty as money laundering itself, which means they're on the hook for $500,00 fine or twice the value of their crime, (i.e. appx $150,000,000) and twenty years. So they could potentially make a deal to drop the money laundering charge, which would substantively affect their sentence. Even still, you generally don't make a proffer statement regarding crimes that you weren't charged with. I still believe that Mueller isn't expecting a deal that would turn Manafort against Trump. So far, Manafort's defense seems to be that he can't be an unregistered agent of a foreign power since he never directly lobbied for Ukraine. If that's successful, then he can't be found guilty of money laundering, as money laundering requires a specified unlawful activity, in this case, being the unregistered agent of a foreign power. I don't think his defense is very strong though, but we'll see. You may be right in terms of flipping Manafort against Trump. Gates could potentially flip too as he was part of Trump's campaign even longer than Manafort. And now, with the Grand Jury still set for more interviews, people might be a bit worried given the indictments on Gates/Manafort and the guilty plea by Papadopoulos. This is all just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trebla Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 More on Papadopoulis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 A few articles on Gates from June in case you missed it. This from NYT and this from Daily Beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 The Republican Party Is Gearing Up for War on the Rule of Law http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/the-republican-partys-gearing-up-for-war-on-the-rule-of-law.html Who Is Rick Gates, the Other Person Indicted on Monday? http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/who-is-rick-gates-the-other-person-indicted-on-monday.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Sorry, fixed that second link. Why is Mueller’s team homing in on Paul Manafort? I asked a former federal prosecutor. Short answer: They want to flip him. https://www.vox.com/2017/9/19/16332842/mueller-paul-manafort-former-federal-prosecutor Imagining Obamacare in 2020 Fast forward three years. This is what health care will look like. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/30/16524952/obamacare-in-2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 It's clear that of the indictments unsealed today, the Papadopoulos one is infinitely more interesting. Manafort/Gates looks to be screwed but Papadopoulos has been cooperating since his arrest at the end of July and his actions makes it abundantly clear that the Trump campaign was in contact with Russia, that they knew they had dirt on Clinton and that they were actively seeking it out. On top of it, the "information" unsealed today claims that not everything the Government knows is in it, just enough information to demonstrate that sufficient facts exist to charge the defendant. With Papadopoulos cooperating, more is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Mexal said: It's clear that of the indictments unsealed today, the Papadopoulos one is infinitely more interesting. Manafort/Gates looks to be screwed but Papadopoulos has been cooperating since his arrest at the end of July and his actions makes it abundantly clear that the Trump campaign was in contact with Russia, that they knew they had dirt on Clinton and that they were actively seeking it out. On top of it, the "information" unsealed today claims that not everything the Government knows is in it, just enough information to demonstrate that sufficient facts exist to charge the defendant. With Papadopoulos cooperating, more is coming. Agreed. It also changes the way we need to view everything Trump and his campaign did with regards to Russia. Especially the June meeting with Don Jr. Also, this explains a lot of the sucking up, among other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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