"Robert Baratheon, the king"

[Lord Varys]

I'm not sure this has been discussed all that often. A lot of people think that the dagger lie really caused a lot of trouble for both the Lannisters and the Starks, greatly contributing to the eventual outbreak of the War of the Five Kings.

But let's assume for a moment he had told the truth there. Assume he had revealed that King Robert Baratheon had won that dagger. What would have happened then?

Would that have helped to cool down the situation or would it have helped to fuel it simply in another way?

Keep in mind that Robert did not exactly impress Ned in his handling of the Arya-Mycah situation.

Robert owning the dagger would mean that he was behind the attempt on Bran - he, or one of the members of his household. That could implicate Cersei, resulting in - more or less - the same kind of crisis that developed with the Tyrion lie.

If Ned had confronted Robert about the thing he would have risked accusing the king himself of attempted murder - which would be treason. If Robert had been willing to think about the whole thing he could have figured out that Joff may have been behind the thing - especially if he was actually the guy who showed or even gave Joffrey the dagger, something that is not unlikely in light of Robert's careless generosity - and that could have led to a very ugly business, too. Accusing the Crown Prince of attempted murder could be construed as treason, too, and it sure as hell wouldn't have bettered the Lannister-Stark relationship.

The one thing the lie did accomplish was to ensure that Ned remained Hand. Had Littlefinger told the truth it is very, very likely that Ned would have resigned as Hand. Chances are about zero that he would have been willing to serve a king as Hand who may have been behind a murder attempt on his own son.

And it is really a miracle that Ned did not resign after the Mycah-Arya affair. A king who cannot give you proper justice is no king at all.

[Universal Sword Donor]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not sure this has been discussed all that often. A lot of people think that the dagger lie really caused a lot of trouble for both the Lannisters and the Starks, greatly contributing to the eventual outbreak of the War of the Five Kings.

But let's assume for a moment he had told the truth there. Assume he had revealed that King Robert Baratheon had won that dagger. What would have happened then?

Would that have helped to cool down the situation or would it have helped to fuel it simply in another way?

Keep in mind that Robert did not exactly impress Ned in his handling of the Arya-Mycah situation.

Robert owning the dagger would mean that he was behind the attempt on Bran - he, or one of the members of his household. That could implicate Cersei, resulting in - more or less - the same kind of crisis that developed with the Tyrion lie.

If Ned had confronted Robert about the thing he would have risked accusing the king himself of attempted murder - which would be treason. If Robert had been willing to think about the whole thing he could have figured out that Joff may have been behind the thing - especially if he was actually the guy who showed or even gave Joffrey the dagger, something that is not unlikely in light of Robert's careless generosity - and that could have led to a very ugly business, too. Accusing the Crown Prince of attempted murder could be construed as treason, too, and it sure as hell wouldn't have bettered the Lannister-Stark relationship.

The one thing the lie did accomplish was to ensure that Ned remained Hand. Had Littlefinger told the truth it is very, very likely that Ned would have resigned as Hand. Chances are about zero that he would have been willing to serve a king as Hand who may have been behind a murder attempt on his own son.

And it is really a miracle that Ned did not resign after the Mycah-Arya affair. A king who cannot give you proper justice is no king at all.

He doesn't need to accuse anyone. 

"Hey Robert, someone random guy tried to kill my son with this knife."

"Shit I won that from LF in a tourney bet. What a tourney that was? I will look into this immediately Ned. Cowardice like that cannot be tolerated. You're my last true friend"

End scene

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He doesn't need to accuse anyone. 

"Hey Robert, someone random guy tried to kill my son with this knife."

"Shit I won that from LF in a tourney bet. What a tourney that was? I will look into this immediately Ned. Cowardice like that cannot be tolerated. You're my last true friend"

End scene

So you assume a Valyrian steel dagger with a dragonbone handle is so insignificant to a king who has beggared the Crown that he would just lose it to some guy? Don't you think both Ned and Robert would know that this is not going to happen. Not in a royal progress and not in the royal armory.

Littlefinger also didn't accuse Tyrion of anything. He just claimed Tyrion won the dagger. His claim that he had nothing to do with the attempt didn't convince Catelyn. Why should it convince Ned that Robert wasn't behind the thing if he claimed it?

Because he knew the man? Ned himself says that Robert is no longer the man he used to know...

[Universal Sword Donor]

33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

So you assume a Valyrian steel dagger with a dragonbone handle is so insignificant to a king who has beggared the Crown that he would just lose it to some guy? Don't you think both Ned and Robert would know that this is not going to happen. Not in a royal progress and not in the royal armory.

Littlefinger also didn't accuse Tyrion of anything. He just claimed Tyrion won the dagger. His claim that he had nothing to do with the attempt didn't convince Catelyn. Why should it convince Ned that Robert wasn't behind the thing if he claimed it?

Because he knew the man? Ned himself says that Robert is no longer the man he used to know...

Well yes, seeing how that is exactly what happened and Robert didn't know the knife was gone, because according to Tywin:

“No doubt. The only blade he ever used was the hunting knife he had from Jon Arryn, when he was a boy.”

He wouldn't have known what happened to it, so he'd set about figuring out why his last true friend's son was nearly killed with his knife. Ned is too naiive to think it was Robert himself, especially given that Robert was hunting with Ned when Bran fell. Surely he'd set Renly, as master of laws and his brother, or Varys, master of whispers, to investigate, maybe both. I doubt that the end result would end up being different though. Renly would have used the dagger to pin it on Cersei, somehow. He's already trying to get rid of her because he thinks she wants him dead (and is correct). Varys would just use it to foment discord the same way LF did, but for the cause of the impending Targ restoration.

[Lord Varys]

40 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Well yes, seeing how that is exactly what happened and Robert didn't know the knife was gone, because according to Tywin:

“No doubt. The only blade he ever used was the hunting knife he had from Jon Arryn, when he was a boy.”

Oh, I didn't say I thought Robert would have used the dagger in his day-to-day life, making it his new favorite knife. But it did end up with the royal progress and went to Winterfell with him, indicating that it wasn't just put in the royal armory to collect dust there.

40 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He wouldn't have known what happened to it, so he'd set about figuring out why his last true friend's son was nearly killed with his knife. Ned is too naiive to think it was Robert himself, especially given that Robert was hunting with Ned when Bran fell.

But that's the thing - would Ned have believed Robert if he said he had nothing to do with that? And why should he? Sure, he wasn't there when Bran fell, but neither was Tyrion. Perhaps Robert had a vested interest in silencing Bran? Perhaps Robert also had a vested interest in Jon Arryn's sudden death? The Lannister may work with Robert to cover up something...

40 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Surely he'd set Renly, as master of laws and his brother, or Varys, master of whispers, to investigate, maybe both. I doubt that the end result would end up being different though. Renly would have used the dagger to pin it on Cersei, somehow. He's already trying to get rid of her because he thinks she wants him dead (and is correct). Varys would just use it to foment discord the same way LF did, but for the cause of the impending Targ restoration.

Varys and Renly weren't at Winterfell. Since the dagger went with Robert, Robert must have seen it there. A proper investigation into the thing would have turned up somebody in the king's household who saw it. And from that point on things could have gotten very ugly very quickly. Robert would have been implicated in the thing in any case. He is the one responsible for his wife and children and Kingsguard and whoever else may have had access to the dagger. And that, in the end, means that the king's own family wanted to kill Brandon Stark.

We see how Ned reacts when Robert learns that Cat abducted Tyrion. He takes the whole thing on himself. He doesn't only do that because he is such an honorable guy - although honor definitely demands that he do this - but because as head of House Stark he is responsible for anything its members do. He could only get out of this thing by completely cutting ties with Catelyn.

If things pointed to another member of the royal family - Cersei or Joffrey, say - Robert would have to choose between his friend and his wife or son and heir. It would be very difficult to side with Ned in that mess, especially if Robert could not imagine why on earth Joff/Cersei would want to harm Bran. After all, Robert completely failed to side with Ned in the Arya-Mycah affair.

[Universal Sword Donor]

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I didn't say I thought Robert would have used the dagger in his day-to-day life, making it his new favorite knife. But it did end up with the royal progress and went to Winterfell with him, indicating that it wasn't just put in the royal armory to collect dust there.

I said that. I don't care if it ended up in the royal armor. He clearly didn't know enough to track its whereabouts or gaf about it in general. He's a man living for gluttony and wine, not avarice while remembering only the past. The dagger means little and less to him. He might well remember it but that's it.

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But that's the thing - would Ned have believed Robert if he said he had nothing to do with that? And why should he? Sure, he wasn't there when Bran fell, but neither was Tyrion. Perhaps Robert had a vested interest in silencing Bran? Perhaps Robert also had a vested interest in Jon Arryn's sudden death? The Lannister may work with Robert to cover up something...

Ned is too naiive or too trusting or too stupid. Take your pick. What motive could Robert have for silencing Bran that the Lannisters didn't already have. Robert considered Jon Arryn his real father / second father, whichever you prefer. You're twisting entire parts of the story and playing what if in addition to the alleged sole change you'd make.

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys and Renly weren't at Winterfell. Since the dagger went with Robert, Robert must have seen it there. A proper investigation into the thing would have turned up somebody in the king's household who saw it. And from that point on things could have gotten very ugly very quickly. Robert would have been implicated in the thing in any case. He is the one responsible for his wife and children and Kingsguard and whoever else may have had access to the dagger. And that, in the end, means that the king's own family wanted to kill Brandon Stark.

No Robert "must not" have seen it there. Why would he? The person didn't try to kill Bran until at least a week after Robert went south. Ned didn't know until Catelyn shows up in KL with said dagger and Ser Rodrik. And you're right, someone in the King's household did know. It was Aron Santagar in KL. He is responsible for it, and that's why he asks Varys and Renly to look into it. Not exactly a leap of logic from the timeline and text we know.

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We see how Ned reacts when Robert learns that Cat abducted Tyrion. He takes the whole thing on himself. He doesn't only do that because he is such an honorable guy - although honor definitely demands that he do this - but because as head of House Stark he is responsible for anything its members do. He could only get out of this thing by completely cutting ties with Catelyn.

If things pointed to another member of the royal family - Cersei or Joffrey, say - Robert would have to choose between his friend and his wife or son and heir. It would be very difficult to side with Ned in that mess, especially if Robert could not imagine why on earth Joff/Cersei would want to harm Bran. After all, Robert completely failed to side with Ned in the Arya-Mycah affair.

I am not saying Robert would side with Ned, but there were hundreds of people in the wagon train who could have seized, stolen, or borrowed the dagger. It would bring shame to Robert it was used to try and kill Bran, crippled son of his best friend. Shame enough that even he would definitely want it investigated. This is a little different than "Children fight." A few options:

1) Robert brushes it under the table, Ned resigns, goes home, and the North largely sits out the Wo5K.

2) Robert brushes it under the table, Ned resigns, goes home, but comes south to rescue RR from its siege

3) Robert believes Ned, investigates, and the Lannisters get stomped

4) Robert believes ned, investigates, can't find shit or is fed exactly what Varys wants, and the Baratheon regime collapses eerily similar to how it actually played out and all-out war ensues.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

@Lord Varys

It led directly to Cat kidnapping Tyrion, which led directly to the fight between Jaime and Ned. And the combination of Ned's injury and suspicion of the Lannisters (and LF's continued influence) made Ned follow the Jon Arryn murder mystery through to its conclusion, which led to him confronting Cersei and his failed coup. Recall that when LF suggested supporting Joffrey as king, Ned's main argument for not doing so was that the Lannisters tried to murder Bran with the dagger. Ned may have suspected Cersei anyways if LF had told the truth, but he certainly wouldn't have such a strong conviction, and I doubt he would have attempted the coup, especially if he hadn't "solved" the murder mystery and still thought Joffrey was Robert's son.

So ultimately, I think Cersei still would have kept trying to murder Robert until succeeding (though maybe delayed it a bit longer), Joffrey would have become king, Ned would have gone back to WF with his daughters, and Renly and Stannis wouldn't have been able to make solid claims on the IT, preventing the Wot5K from happening in the first place.

That's my best guess anyways  

On second thought, Stannis already knew about the whole Jon Arryn bastard hunt/Joffrey being illegitimate anyways, and Renly seemed to have known something was up as well (the whole make-Margaery-Robert's-new-queen plot), but it would at least be a very different war with Ned not being Cersei's prisoner/dead.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robert completely failed to side with Ned in the Arya-Mycah affair.

Not completely. Robert would have been within his rights to punish Arya Stark the way Cersei wanted him too. The Crown Prince accused her of assaulting him and siccing her wolf on him for no reason. A statement in which Sansa Stark, the only other witness to the maiming, does not contradict. Then Joffrey goes straight to his Queen mother to tell her what happened while Arya runs away making her look all the more guilty.

In the end all Robert did to get justice for his son who was permanently maimed was sentence a wolf to die. In Robert's mind that is not that big of deal as he doesn't  understand the connection the Stark children have with their wolves and thinks they are just random pets that are danger to everyone they are around. 

Ned was not happy with the outcome but neither was Cersei.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Not completely. Robert would have been within his rights to punish Arya Stark the way Cersei wanted him too. The Crown Prince accused her of assaulting him and siccing her wolf on him for no reason. A statement in which Sansa Stark, the only other witness to the maiming, does not contradict. Then Joffrey goes straight to his Queen mother to tell her what happened while Arya runs away making her look all the more guilty.

In the end all Robert did to get justice for his son who was permanently maimed was sentence a wolf to die. In Robert's mind that is not that big of deal as he doesn't  understand the connection the Stark children have with their wolves and thinks they are just random pets that are danger to everyone they are around. 

Ned was not happy with the outcome but neither was Cersei.

Wasn't permanently maimed, but yes Cersei would not have demanded the death of Lady if she were satisfied. 

[Tygett Lannister]

Robert just told Santagar to bring all his equipment (weapons and armors) but he probably doesn't knows what that includes, Robert might have recognized the blade or not if Ned would show it to him. If he did Robert would probably say he knows nothing about it and that someone might have stolen the dagger from him at Winterfell, but he wouldn't be able to come to any conclusion who it could be. Ned would keep searching for clues about the dagger and Jon Arryn's death. He would eventually find out about the twincest and told Cersei and she would have Robert killed and Ned imprisoned.

Pretty much everyone on the small council knows about twincest (Pycelle, Varys, LF, Renly, Stannis, Jon Arryn - dead) when Robert departs for Winterfell. So war is coming anyways.

[Lord Wraith]

27 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Pretty much everyone on the small council knows about twincest (Pycelle, Varys, LF, Renly, Stannis, Jon Arryn - dead) when Robert departs for Winterfell. So war is coming anyways.

It's amazing to me how many people miss this point.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I said that. I don't care if it ended up in the royal armor. He clearly didn't know enough to track its whereabouts or gaf about it in general. He's a man living for gluttony and wine, not avarice while remembering only the past. The dagger means little and less to him. He might well remember it but that's it.

He sure as hell would remember it since he won it in a tourney shortly before the death of his friend and the journey north. It was not that long ago. What Robert is is pretty much irrelevant to the question at hand. The point is what Robert would have appeared to be if Littlefinger had revealed that the dagger belonged to him.

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Ned is too naiive or too trusting or too stupid. Take your pick. What motive could Robert have for silencing Bran that the Lannisters didn't already have. Robert considered Jon Arryn his real father / second father, whichever you prefer. You're twisting entire parts of the story and playing what if in addition to the alleged sole change you'd make.

No, I'm not. Go back and reread the thoughts Ned has about his buddy King Robert. He does not trust him all that much. He does not only fear that he might make the wrong choice when he tells him about his suspicions involving Jon Arryn and Bran - which is why he keeps his mouth shut about all of that - he also fears that he cannot trust this man anymore.

And when he finds out about Cersei and Jaime and their children he gives Cersei the warning because he fears that Robert would kill them all. That is a conclusion he reaches because of his assessment of the shitty character of his buddy Robert. He thinks the man is a bloodthirsty murderer at heart, a man actually capable to murder innocent children to make himself feel better.

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

No Robert "must not" have seen it there. Why would he? The person didn't try to kill Bran until at least a week after Robert went south. Ned didn't know until Catelyn shows up in KL with said dagger and Ser Rodrik. And you're right, someone in the King's household did know. It was Aron Santagar in KL. He is responsible for it, and that's why he asks Varys and Renly to look into it. Not exactly a leap of logic from the timeline and text we know.

Santagar obviously didn't know the dagger enough to know it was in King Robert's possession, no? He never saw it after King Robert won it from Littlefinger or else Littlefinger's lie wouldn't have survived Cat's next conversation with Rodrik after she talked to Littlefinger in the Red Keep. After all, we do know that Rodrik talked to Santagar. Santagar may have known the dagger the same way any learned man interested in weapons knows a lot about the Valyrian steel weapons in Westeros - which means he may have known that it was in Littlefinger possession right now, or who had owned it prior to Littlefinger acquiring it. But the chances are about zero that King Robert handed the dagger to Santagar after he won it at the tourney.

In that sense it is quite likely that Robert himself - or some of his immediate servants/household members - took possession of the dagger after the tourney, resulting in it accompanying the progress north.

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I am not saying Robert would side with Ned, but there were hundreds of people in the wagon train who could have seized, stolen, or borrowed the dagger. It would bring shame to Robert it was used to try and kill Bran, crippled son of his best friend. Shame enough that even he would definitely want it investigated. This is a little different than "Children fight."

It would depend on how Ned confronted Robert about the whole thing, wouldn't it? If he just inquired about the dagger in an innocent tone, eventually revealing that it was used to try to murder his son there could be some sort of real investigation. But if Ned went to accuse him or members of his family of murder things could go different pretty fast. You do remember what Robert does when Ned opposes him in the Dany assassination plot, right? He wouldn't have executed him over that, of course, but they only reconcile because Jaime nearly kills Ned. If that hadn't happened the friendship between the stag and the direwolf would have been over for good.

The idea that Renly or Varys could have helped investigate this thing doesn't make a lot of sense. They weren't there. And if Ned had gone to Robert pretty much at once after learning the truth from Cat and Littlefinger there would have been not all that much time for these people to prepare. And they would have to investigate Robert and members of his family and household to even give the pretext of getting to the bottom of this. Would Robert have allowed that? Especially if he had an inclination who might have been responsible? I mean Joffrey. Would he have allowed that his son is publicly accused of attempting to murder Brandon Stark?

By the way - with Littlefinger not implicating Tyrion there isn't going to be a siege of Riverrun.

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

@Lord Varys

It led directly to Cat kidnapping Tyrion, which led directly to the fight between Jaime and Ned. And the combination of Ned's injury and suspicion of the Lannisters (and LF's continued influence) made Ned follow the Jon Arryn murder mystery through to its conclusion, which led to him confronting Cersei and his failed coup.

I know to what the dagger lie led, but that isn't the question here. The question is what would have happened if Littlefinger had told the truth.

And, quite frankly, the dagger lie didn't lead directly to Tyrion's abduction. Only Tyrion meeting and recognizing Cat on the road led to that. And that was not done so much to punish the alleged attempted murderer but to prevent the Lannisters at large from learning that the Starks were investigating them. If they had been involved in the murder of Jon Arryn and if Tyrion was truly the man behind the attempt on Bran then he would figure that out the moment he recognized Cat. And that would mean Ned and Cat's daughters would be in mortal danger as soon as the Lannisters in KL learned about that.

Littlefinger did not want Cat and Ned to act on the dagger lie thing. In fact, he urges them to ignore that stuff, and most likely picked Tyrion as the culprit because he was far away at the time he told them about it. Which means they had much more time to cool down than they would have had had he mentioned Cersei or Robert.

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Recall that when LF suggested supporting Joffrey as king, Ned's main argument for not doing so was that the Lannisters tried to murder Bran with the dagger. Ned may have suspected Cersei anyways if LF had told the truth, but he certainly wouldn't have such a strong conviction, and I doubt he would have attempted the coup, especially if he hadn't "solved" the murder mystery and still thought Joffrey was Robert's son.

The way things went made things not as good for Littlefinger as they could have been. Imagine Robert dying earlier - at the tourney, say - then the regency government for King Joffrey would have been set up by Ned. Which means Littlefinger would have greatly profited if Ned had really trusted him at that point.

And they could have still worked pretty well together if Ned had not insisted making Stannis king after he learned about the incest. He could even have used his knowledge about the incest to bring Cersei down while Robert was still alive. As Hand acting in the king's absence it would have been his duty to arrest the queen and her children until such time as the king returned from his hunt. If that had been done, if Ned had acted before Cersei had learned - from him - that he knew the truth things would have gone down completely differently.

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

So ultimately, I think Cersei still would have kept trying to murder Robert until succeeding (though maybe delayed it a bit longer), Joffrey would have become king, Ned would have gone back to WF with his daughters, and Renly and Stannis wouldn't have been able to make solid claims on the IT, preventing the Wot5K from happening in the first place.

Actually, Cersei indicates that she intended to deal with both Stannis and Renly before killing Robert. She is only forced to target Robert first because Ned is there and she realizes early on - most likely through Pycelle - that the man thinks Jon Arryn was murdered and had previously investigated her.

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

On second thought, Stannis already knew about the whole Jon Arryn bastard hunt/Joffrey being illegitimate anyways, and Renly seemed to have known something was up as well (the whole make-Margaery-Robert's-new-queen plot), but it would at least be a very different war with Ned not being Cersei's prisoner/dead.

Well, it could have been a completely different war if Ned had accused Robert or his family of trying to murder his son. That would have meant that the Lannisters may have supported a furious King Robert attacking Winterfell.

5 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Not completely. Robert would have been within his rights to punish Arya Stark the way Cersei wanted him too. The Crown Prince accused her of assaulting him and siccing her wolf on him for no reason. A statement in which Sansa Stark, the only other witness to the maiming, does not contradict. Then Joffrey goes straight to his Queen mother to tell her what happened while Arya runs away making her look all the more guilty.

Sure, but Robert himself admits that he didn't believe a word Joffrey said. Yet he condemned the innocent wolf, anyway, and he didn't call his son out for his lying nor did he chastise him for that. And he completely ignored the murder of Mycah - something the boy definitely didn't deserve. First, because of the boy did not attack the Crown Prince at all, second because even if he did he would only have lost his hand for that - as per the old Targaryen laws - not his life.

A real king interested in justice would have taken Sandor's head for his murder there. But the casualness in which the man murdered Mycah shows very much how much 'King Robert' cares about justice. If he had had reason to believe that King Robert would not look kindly on him butchering peasants he wouldn't have brought the corpse of the boy into camp.

5 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

In the end all Robert did to get justice for his son who was permanently maimed was sentence a wolf to die. In Robert's mind that is not that big of deal as he doesn't  understand the connection the Stark children have with their wolves and thinks they are just random pets that are danger to everyone they are around. 

It is still completely unjust. If Robert didn't want those wolfs around he could have just commanded Ned to leave them at Winterfell. He is the king. What Robert showed there was that he didn't give shit about justice since you do not punish innocent people or creatures for the crimes of others.

Mycah had to die in Arya's stead, and Lady in Nymeria's stead. That isn't justice. That is just sick. And it is the point where Ned realizes that his old friend is little more than a corrupt man. Whatever real friendship they had ended at Castle Derry. What they have later isn't a real friendship anymore. Ned guards his tongue around his old friend, always thinking before talking, and he clearly doesn't trust the guy anymore.

If he did, he would have told him about Lysa's letter and his suspicions. He would have even told him about the dagger and Tyrion.

[The Commentator]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not sure this has been discussed all that often. A lot of people think that the dagger lie really caused a lot of trouble for both the Lannisters and the Starks, greatly contributing to the eventual outbreak of the War of the Five Kings.

But let's assume for a moment he had told the truth there. Assume he had revealed that King Robert Baratheon had won that dagger. What would have happened then?

Would that have helped to cool down the situation or would it have helped to fuel it simply in another way?

Keep in mind that Robert did not exactly impress Ned in his handling of the Arya-Mycah situation.

Robert owning the dagger would mean that he was behind the attempt on Bran - he, or one of the members of his household. That could implicate Cersei, resulting in - more or less - the same kind of crisis that developed with the Tyrion lie.

If Ned had confronted Robert about the thing he would have risked accusing the king himself of attempted murder - which would be treason. If Robert had been willing to think about the whole thing he could have figured out that Joff may have been behind the thing - especially if he was actually the guy who showed or even gave Joffrey the dagger, something that is not unlikely in light of Robert's careless generosity - and that could have led to a very ugly business, too. Accusing the Crown Prince of attempted murder could be construed as treason, too, and it sure as hell wouldn't have bettered the Lannister-Stark relationship.

The one thing the lie did accomplish was to ensure that Ned remained Hand. Had Littlefinger told the truth it is very, very likely that Ned would have resigned as Hand. Chances are about zero that he would have been willing to serve a king as Hand who may have been behind a murder attempt on his own son.

And it is really a miracle that Ned did not resign after the Mycah-Arya affair. A king who cannot give you proper justice is no king at all.

And this, My Lord Eunuch, is why Robb Stark and Jon Snow are both unfit to rule.  We have discussed this numerous times on this forum as I am sure you know.  Robb was as harsh as could be with Rickard but he basically let Catelyn off the hook for doing something more damaging to their side of the war.  Jon beheaded a fellow brother of the Watch and soon after, allowed Mance, who committed the most terrible of crimes against the realm to walk free.  Robert's situation was a little bit different but the result was still injustice.  Things got out of hand.  Lannister men were sent to hunt the butcher's boy down and the lion's henchmen are brutal.  Robert should have taken control immediately and should have been able to foresee what could happen.  Bring the boy in, alive, for questioning.   So, onto Robert B. and the dagger.  

If we assume that the Starks found out that Joffrey hired an assassin to kill their crippled boy war would have broken out.  Robert would slap Joffrey around and then attempt to smooth things over with the Starks.  The Starks would demand justice and the wrist slapping will not be enough.  Look what the Starks did years ago when they thought the royal prince kidnapped their daughter.  Brandon rode to KL and threatened to kill his better and the son of his ruler.  War would break out.  Cersei would never consent to any form of harsh punishment for Joffrey, stating her son was just putting a cripple out of his misery and the wolf has no right to pass judgment on a lion, etc, etc.  Tywin would back his grandson.  The Starks would take Tyrion hostage if they were fortunate enough to find the Imp at their mercy and hold him hostage against his father.  I will not say war was inevitable but Robert never really had adequate control of his government, his family, his guards, etc.  I am actually surprised that Robert lasted as long as he did.  

 

[Jaak]

Truth is that the dagger was around Robert´s household and, despite being inherently valuable, was neglected and poorly tracked. Joffrey managed to steal it without attracting attention. Even if shit hits the fan, it would have been hard to identify the thief - might have been a family member, might have been a servant.

Could Eddard have been honestly satisfied that neglect and ease of theft in Robert´s household was genuine and habitual, not pretended just to hide the thief from him?

Was Joffrey´s theft a first? That is, were valuables stolen from royal household before and nobody cared so Joffrey knew nobody would care (and contributing towards the six million dragon debt...) or was it the case that despite loose supervision, nothing had gone missing before which is why no one knew to watch valuables?

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He sure as hell would remember it since he won it in a tourney shortly before the death of his friend and the journey north. It was not that long ago. What Robert is is pretty much irrelevant to the question at hand. The point is what Robert would have appeared to be if Littlefinger had revealed that the dagger belonged to him.

I already answered that.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, I'm not. Go back and reread the thoughts Ned has about his buddy King Robert. He does not trust him all that much. He does not only fear that he might make the wrong choice when he tells him about his suspicions involving Jon Arryn and Bran - which is why he keeps his mouth shut about all of that - he also fears that he cannot trust this man anymore.

He fears he might be influenced unduly by the Lannisters. Yet he was still planning on telling Robert that he was a cuckold and that "his" kids were Jaime's kids. So yeah his trust is fine.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And when he finds out about Cersei and Jaime and their children he gives Cersei the warning because he fears that Robert would kill them all. That is a conclusion he reaches because of his assessment of the shitty character of his buddy Robert. He thinks the man is a bloodthirsty murderer at heart, a man actually capable to murder innocent children to make himself feel better.

He.still.trusts.him.enough.to.tell.him.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Santagar obviously didn't know the dagger enough to know it was in King Robert's possession, no? He never saw it after King Robert won it from Littlefinger or else Littlefinger's lie wouldn't have survived Cat's next conversation with Rodrik after she talked to Littlefinger in the Red Keep. After all, we do know that Rodrik talked to Santagar. Santagar may have known the dagger the same way any learned man interested in weapons knows a lot about the Valyrian steel weapons in Westeros - which means he may have known that it was in Littlefinger possession right now, or who had owned it prior to Littlefinger acquiring it. But the chances are about zero that King Robert handed the dagger to Santagar after he won it at the tourney.

It's irrelevant whether Aron Santagar knew it was in the wagon train. He could ID it as Roberts. Upon re-read I don't seem to have clearly said that. LF's lie in this situation is immaterial. You cut it out yourself. The master-of-arms at the castle is going to be pretty well aware of the armory and equipment in stock. He was likely consulted by the marshal/steward/whichever office stocked the armory wagon (or whatever it might be called).

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In that sense it is quite likely that Robert himself - or some of his immediate servants/household members - took possession of the dagger after the tourney, resulting in it accompanying the progress north.

Robert clearly didn't care about it. Can you please stop pretending he did. We know damn well he never used another knife outside of the one Tywin mentions. More importantly Valyrian steel doesn't seem to be important to him at all. He's the king and yet he never wears it, uses it, buys it, or commandeers it from someone. You keep saying it's valuable but he has the wealth of CR and the IT at his back. It means little and less.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It would depend on how Ned confronted Robert about the whole thing, wouldn't it? If he just inquired about the dagger in an innocent tone, eventually revealing that it was used to try to murder his son there could be some sort of real investigation. But if Ned went to accuse him or members of his family of murder things could go different pretty fast. You do remember what Robert does when Ned opposes him in the Dany assassination plot, right? He wouldn't have executed him over that, of course, but they only reconcile because Jaime nearly kills Ned. If that hadn't happened the friendship between the stag and the direwolf would have been over for good.

It would depend on how Ned confronted him. I'd imagine it would play out exactly as I said it. Ned is entirely too naive and trusting.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Renly or Varys could have helped investigate this thing doesn't make a lot of sense. They weren't there. And if Ned had gone to Robert pretty much at once after learning the truth from Cat and Littlefinger there would have been not all that much time for these people to prepare. And they would have to investigate Robert and members of his family and household to even give the pretext of getting to the bottom of this. Would Robert have allowed that? Especially if he had an inclination who might have been responsible? I mean Joffrey. Would he have allowed that his son is publicly accused of attempting to murder Brandon Stark?

They don't have to be there. As master of laws and master of whispers they would have primary responsibility for such and matter and frankly with the guy dead, one witness in KL, and the other comatose, sending someone to WF would be a fools errand anyway. LF's truth just confirms what Santagar would have told them already. That scene is completely dearth of one Rodrik Cassel.

Yes Robert would have called for an investigation that led through his household or not. In which case Ned resigns and goes home. Kinda nifty and neat how I already typed this out.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

By the way - with Littlefinger not implicating Tyrion there isn't going to be a siege of Riverrun.

Depends on how Robert's investigation goes. But yes if Ned resigns and goes home because it didn't happen or was brushed under the rug, then you would be correct.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And they could have still worked pretty well together if Ned had not insisted making Stannis king after he learned about the incest. He could even have used his knowledge about the incest to bring Cersei down while Robert was still alive. As Hand acting in the king's absence it would have been his duty to arrest the queen and her children until such time as the king returned from his hunt. If that had been done, if Ned had acted before Cersei had learned - from him - that he knew the truth things would have gone down completely differently.

You'll get no argument from me on that point.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, Cersei indicates that she intended to deal with both Stannis and Renly before killing Robert. She is only forced to target Robert first because Ned is there and she realizes early on - most likely through Pycelle - that the man thinks Jon Arryn was murdered and had previously investigated her.

Erm not so sure on that. I'm fairly certain she was targeting Renly first *because* she realized he was well liked and not a total moron in addition to trying to replace her, but that's my head canon. Either way she wanted all the Baratheons dead.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

If we assume that the Starks found out that Joffrey hired an assassin to kill their crippled boy war would have broken out.  Robert would slap Joffrey around and then attempt to smooth things over with the Starks.  The Starks would demand justice and the wrist slapping will not be enough.  Look what the Starks did years ago when they thought the royal prince kidnapped their daughter.  Brandon rode to KL and threatened to kill his better and the son of his ruler.  War would break out.  Cersei would never consent to any form of harsh punishment for Joffrey, stating her son was just putting a cripple out of his misery and the wolf has no right to pass judgment on a lion, etc, etc.  Tywin would back his grandson.  The Starks would take Tyrion hostage if they were fortunate enough to find the Imp at their mercy and hold him hostage against his father.  I will not say war was inevitable but Robert never really had adequate control of his government, his family, his guards, etc.  I am actually surprised that Robert lasted as long as he did.

That would be my guess, too. The truth about the dagger - or the person behind the dagger (Joffrey) - is actually more dangerous for the stability of the Realm than the whole Tyrion story.

If Ned/Cat accused Tyrion of attempted murder chances are that Robert, Cersei, and Tywin would have been willing to sacrifice him. He was ugly, not well-liked, and simply not important enough - just think how Tywin is willing to sacrifice him after Joffrey is murdered.

But accusing the king himself of his heir apparent is another matter entirely. It is infinitely more dangerous.

57 minutes ago, Jaak said:

Truth is that the dagger was around Robert´s household and, despite being inherently valuable, was neglected and poorly tracked. Joffrey managed to steal it without attracting attention.

That is the thing - we don't know if Joffrey stole the dagger. Robert could actually have given it to him. Or somebody else in the royal household.

57 minutes ago, Jaak said:

Could Eddard have been honestly satisfied that neglect and ease of theft in Robert´s household was genuine and habitual, not pretended just to hide the thief from him?

Considering that the dagger attempt fueled the suspicions that Bran's fall wasn't an accident the chances that Ned would have been willing to believe that some nobody in the king's household was responsible for the attempt is very low.

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He fears he might be influenced unduly by the Lannisters. Yet he was still planning on telling Robert that he was a cuckold and that "his" kids were Jaime's kids. So yeah his trust is fine.

That was his duty as Hand, lord, and the king's subject. If you are a member of the king's court, his servant, retainer, subject, etc. it is your duty to inform him about any crime conducted against him.

That is why Stannis commits treason when he keeps his suspicions about Jaime/Cersei to himself. Ned did have as much proof as Jon Arryn/Stannis. But he was willing to talk about it.

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He.still.trusts.him.enough.to.tell.him.

But he doesn't trust him enough to tell him about Lysa's letter, Littlefinger's dagger story, or Cersei's attempt on his life during the tourney. He doesn't even give him a reason as to why Cat arrested Tyrion.

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's irrelevant whether Aron Santagar knew it was in the wagon train. He could ID it as Roberts. Upon re-read I don't seem to have clearly said that. LF's lie in this situation is immaterial. You cut it out yourself. The master-of-arms at the castle is going to be pretty well aware of the armory and equipment in stock. He was likely consulted by the marshal/steward/whichever office stocked the armory wagon (or whatever it might be called).

Rodrik asked Santagar about the dagger. If he knew Robert Baratheon - and not Tyrion Lannister - was its last known owner then Littlefinger's lie shouldn't have worked. Cat and Ned would never have believed Tyrion owned the dagger or used it to kill their son.

In that sense it makes only sense that nobody told Santagar about the dagger King Robert won from Lord Baelish during the nameday tourney.

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Robert clearly didn't care about it. Can you please stop pretending he did. We know damn well he never used another knife outside of the one Tywin mentions. More importantly Valyrian steel doesn't seem to be important to him at all. He's the king and yet he never wears it, uses it, buys it, or commandeers it from someone. You keep saying it's valuable but he has the wealth of CR and the IT at his back. It means little and less.

Robert not caring about the dagger doesn't mean he gave it to Santagar.

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Yes Robert would have called for an investigation that led through his household or not. In which case Ned resigns and goes home. Kinda nifty and neat how I already typed this out.

How do you know that Robert would agree to such an investigation? Especially if he realized that Cersei or Joffrey might be responsible for the murder attempt'?

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Erm not so sure on that. I'm fairly certain she was targeting Renly first *because* she realized he was well liked and not a total moron in addition to trying to replace her, but that's my head canon. Either way she wanted all the Baratheons dead.

Reread her statements/thoughts on the end of Robert. She tells us that she removed him too early, before she could deal with his brothers.

[Frey family reunion]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robert owning the dagger would mean that he was behind the attempt on Bran - he, or one of the members of his household. That could implicate Cersei, resulting in - more or less - the same kind of crisis that developed with the Tyrion lie.

There is another possibility.  The dagger could have been Joffrey's and could have been kept with the royal wheelhouse, yet a third party, who had recently attached himself to the royal procession could have stolen the dagger for the express purpose of sowing dissension between the King and Winterfell, if in fact this third party assumed the dagger belonged to King Robert.

I think Martin is using the valyrian dagger with a dragonbone hilt as a stand in for the "dragon's tooth".  In the Greek tale of Cadmus, Cadmus kills a dragon and then sows the ground with the dragon's teeth to create an army.  Afterwards a gem or stone is thrown amongst the army which creates in fighting and the surviving five soldiers helps him form the city of Thebes.  Thereafter "sowing the dragon's teeth" became almost synonymous with causing discord.

This is exactly what Littlefinger does with the dagger.  He deftly takes ownership of the dagger and crafts a story that causes discord between the Starks and Lannisters.  Ultimately Littlefinger sides with the Lannisters and greatly benefits.  In out tale Littlefinger uses the "dragon's tooth" to both sow discord and create a catspaw army for himself which is used to take down Stark's forces in King's Landing.

What I wonder, is if this was what was attempted in Winterfell.  Did Mance steal the dagger and hire the catspaw to kill Bran to turn the Starks against the King?  This would help distract the largest military force in the North and turn their attention southward when he made his attempt to bring his wildling army past the Wall.

The only problem was, no one made the connection with the knife and Robert or Joffrey.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not sure this has been discussed all that often. A lot of people think that the dagger lie really caused a lot of trouble for both the Lannisters and the Starks, greatly contributing to the eventual outbreak of the War of the Five Kings.

But let's assume for a moment he had told the truth there. Assume he had revealed that King Robert Baratheon had won that dagger. What would have happened then?

Would that have helped to cool down the situation or would it have helped to fuel it simply in another way?

Keep in mind that Robert did not exactly impress Ned in his handling of the Arya-Mycah situation.

Robert owning the dagger would mean that he was behind the attempt on Bran - he, or one of the members of his household. That could implicate Cersei, resulting in - more or less - the same kind of crisis that developed with the Tyrion lie.

If Ned had confronted Robert about the thing he would have risked accusing the king himself of attempted murder - which would be treason. If Robert had been willing to think about the whole thing he could have figured out that Joff may have been behind the thing - especially if he was actually the guy who showed or even gave Joffrey the dagger, something that is not unlikely in light of Robert's careless generosity - and that could have led to a very ugly business, too. Accusing the Crown Prince of attempted murder could be construed as treason, too, and it sure as hell wouldn't have bettered the Lannister-Stark relationship.

The one thing the lie did accomplish was to ensure that Ned remained Hand. Had Littlefinger told the truth it is very, very likely that Ned would have resigned as Hand. Chances are about zero that he would have been willing to serve a king as Hand who may have been behind a murder attempt on his own son.

And it is really a miracle that Ned did not resign after the Mycah-Arya affair. A king who cannot give you proper justice is no king at all.

All the more reason why the lie was intended to not only stir up trouble between wolf and lion but to specifically remove Tyrion as a player. LF has been gunning for Tyrion since the beginning of the story: with the dagger lie, the attempt on his life during the Battle of the Blackwater, and the attempt to poison him at the Purple Wedding.

 

 

[Dorian Martell's son]

22 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He doesn't need to accuse anyone. 

"Hey Robert, someone random guy tried to kill my son with this knife."

"Shit I won that from LF in a tourney bet. What a tourney that was? I will look into this immediately Ned. Cowardice like that cannot be tolerated. You're my last true friend"

End scene

 

21 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Well yes, seeing how that is exactly what happened and Robert didn't know the knife was gone, because according to Tywin:

“No doubt. The only blade he ever used was the hunting knife he had from Jon Arryn, when he was a boy.”

He wouldn't have known what happened to it, so he'd set about figuring out why his last true friend's son was nearly killed with his knife. Ned is too naiive to think it was Robert himself, especially given that Robert was hunting with Ned when Bran fell. Surely he'd set Renly, as master of laws and his brother, or Varys, master of whispers, to investigate, maybe both. I doubt that the end result would end up being different though. Renly would have used the dagger to pin it on Cersei, somehow. He's already trying to get rid of her because he thinks she wants him dead (and is correct). Varys would just use it to foment discord the same way LF did, but for the cause of the impending Targ restoration.

/thread 

 

[Lord Varys]

The purpose of this threat is not to speculate about who was behind the dagger - we know that - but to consider the possible consequences of Littlefinger telling the truth about the dagger and Ned seriously considering the possibility that Robert Baratheon might have been involved in the attempt on Bran's life.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

There is another possibility.  The dagger could have been Joffrey's and could have been kept with the royal wheelhouse, yet a third party, who had recently attached himself to the royal procession could have stolen the dagger for the express purpose of sowing dissension between the King and Winterfell, if in fact this third party assumed the dagger belonged to King Robert.

While this is possible there is no textual support for such an idea.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think Martin is using the valyrian dagger with a dragonbone hilt as a stand in for the "dragon's tooth".  In the Greek tale of Cadmus, Cadmus kills a dragon and then sows the ground with the dragon's teeth to create an army.  Afterwards a gem or stone is thrown amongst the army which creates in fighting and the surviving five soldiers helps him form the city of Thebes.  Thereafter "sowing the dragon's teeth" became almost synonymous with causing discord.

While this is interesting to know it has nothing to do with George's books. Lysa's letter fueled discord. The dagger was used by Joffrey to grant Brandon Stark a mercy death. The had nothing to do with causing discord.

And especially Littlefinger had no reason to do that since, you know, the attempt on Bran - or his murder - could have caused Eddard Stark to resign as Hand. But the point of Lysa's letter definitely was to draw Ned to KL to investigate the death of Jon Arryn.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

What I wonder, is if this was what was attempted in Winterfell.  Did Mance steal the dagger and hire the catspaw to kill Bran to turn the Starks against the King?  This would help distract the largest military force in the North and turn their attention southward when he made his attempt to bring his wildling army past the Wall.

No, he did not. We know who was behind the dagger. Mance isn't so corrupt a man to murder an innocent child. But even if he was - he would have arranged the attempt while Robert and Ned were both still at Winterfell so that things could explode there.

Or rather - he would have done something more easier - say, killing Joffrey and blaming Robb, or vice versa. Or killing Myrcella or Arya/Sansa. He could have gotten much better to any of those people than he could to Bran - who was constantly under the care of Catelyn and Stark servants.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

All the more reason why the lie was intended to not only stir up trouble between wolf and lion but to specifically remove Tyrion as a player. LF has been gunning for Tyrion since the beginning of the story: with the dagger lie, the attempt on his life during the Battle of the Blackwater, and the attempt to poison him at the Purple Wedding.

Littlefinger began to target Tyrion specifically only after he became Acting Hand. He knew Tyrion knew about the dagger lie, and that would cause him to investigate him rather thoroughly.

Prior to ACoK Tyrion wasn't a player. He was a political non-entity. A joke with neither office nor power. He didn't even permanently live at court.