US Politics: Let's Discuss US Politics

[mormont]

OK, new thread, new leaf all round. Let's try  discussing what's going on in US politics for a bit, and not discussing what we think of other boarders who regularly post in this thread? Maybe keep that for later.

[GAROVORKIN]

Whats going on in US politics? Turmoil. Everyday it's something new. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Former Watergate Prosecutor Guarantees That Papadopoulos Has Been Wearing a Wire For Months

 https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/ex-watergate-prosecutor-guarantees-papadopoulos-has-been-wearing-a-wire-for-months-and-playing-dial-a-crook/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=im&utm_tracker=1737131x84899

 

https://postimg.org/image/oakzae689/

[karaddin]

3 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

 

Dropping the comment I was going to make in response to this to respect mormonts request, but I can't let this slide when no one else has commented on it

3 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I'm saying that when you (Dante) attribute the murder of Heather Heyer to an entire ideology, you are doing the same thing that anti-BLM folks did when they attributed the murder of 5 Dallas cops to BLM as a whole.

You are literally discussing the ideology of naziism, I think it can quite reasonably be attributed a fuck of a lot more than just a single murder. People who get baffled at how certain terms get used need to step outside their relationship with a person and think how the statement looks without 10 layers of "but I know that guy, he wouldn't mean that" because even if you're right - other people can't and won't know that and will draw their conclusions based on the arguments made. And you know, you could be wrong about the person you thought you knew - whether it's true in this case or not, it will be at times in your life, think people abusing their spouse etc. 

[Inigima]

That's a distinct possibility but it's straight speculation at this point. Raw Story is not a good source. (Edit: this is about the possibility of Papadopolous wearing a wire, for some reason I didn't account for someone else posting in between.)

The big concern for me is what happens if and when actual treason is revealed. The Republicans in office have shown little inclination to check Trump and his base is actively fine with him staying in office no matter what he did. If Trump goes all in, pardoning his friends and family and asserting limitless executive privilege and immunity from any kind of law enforcement, I don't know what happens next.

[GAROVORKIN]

1 minute ago, Inigima said:

That's a distinct possibility but it's straight speculation at this point. Raw Story is not a good source.

The big concern for me is what happens if and when actual treason is revealed. The Republicans in office have shown little inclination to check Trump and his base is actively fine with him staying in office no matter what he did. If Trump goes all in, pardoning his friends and family and asserting limitless executive privilege and immunity from any kind of law enforcement, I don't know what happens next.

If so, it will be the trial of the century.

 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

4 minutes ago, Inigima said:

That's a distinct possibility but it's straight speculation at this point. Raw Story is not a good source. (Edit: this is about the possibility of Papadopolous wearing a wire, for some reason I didn't account for someone else posting in between.)

The big concern for me is what happens if and when actual treason is revealed. The Republicans in office have shown little inclination to check Trump and his base is actively fine with him staying in office no matter what he did. If Trump goes all in, pardoning his friends and family and asserting limitless executive privilege and immunity from any kind of law enforcement, I don't know what happens next.

 Yeah, I get that it's pure speculation, I just think that it seems like a fairly safe assumption at this point. 

The real speculation is did he manage to get anyone important to say anything interesting?

[Kalbear]

6 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said:

If so, it will be the trial of the century.

There will not be a trial in that case. Trump almost certainly will not go to any trial and will go to major lengths to avoid a trial, and his lawyers will advise him heavily to avoid anything resembling a trial. 

My suspicion is that Flynn, not Manafort, will be the first to be pardoned. And Flynn will likely be the next one on the bingo card. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

 

All excited about what I'm going to get in my stocking this Holiday Season! Happy Holidays, Everybody!

[HexMachina]

Apparent terror attack in New York 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2017/oct/31/new-york-vehicle-manhattan-bike-path-attack-fears-live-updates

[Kalbear]

6 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

 

All excited about what I'm going to get in my stocking this Holiday Season! Happy Holidays, Everybody!

Even this is due to Obama. Seriously.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33352

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Just now, Kalbear said:

Even this is due to Obama. Seriously.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33352

Lulz. To be fair, it is his default to reverse anything Obama set into motion. At least he's consistent.

[The Anti-Targ]

31 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I'm saying that when you (Dante) attribute the murder of Heather Heyer to an entire ideology, you are doing the same thing that anti-BLM folks did when they attributed the murder of 5 Dallas cops to BLM as a whole.

I think in this case you are wrong. On the one hand Heyer's murderer was directly motivated by an ideology which includes explicit advocacy for violence against those who oppose it. I think here you can blame an ideology along with the individual for Heather Heyer's murder.

In terms of BLM, for starters BLM isn't an ideology, it's a movement which arose as a reaction to several cases of apparently unjustified killings of black men and boys by police in different US states. And as far as I know, while there are individuals and possibly even factions within BLM who are inclined towards violent means, BLM as a movement in general is not advocating violence. So you can separate the violent actions of BLM supporters from the aims and methods of BLM the social movement. But you can't separate the violent actions of Nazis from the aims and methods of the Nazi ideology. Perhaps back in the day before Hitler and co injected genocide of Jews, Gypsies and other non-conforming communities into their National Socialist ideology one could have separated individual violence from Nazi ideology. But that was hback int eh late 1920s / early 1930s. Today it's not possible to separate these things.

It's probably correct that the Nazi leadership did not want any Nazis to murder or even seriously injure anyone by instigating violence on that day. But the ideology IS the reason that murderer was there and it is the reason that murderer chose to use his car as a murder weapon.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

28 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Dropping the comment I was going to make in response to this to respect mormonts request, but I can't let this slide when no one else has commented on it

You are literally discussing the ideology of naziism, I think it can quite reasonably be attributed a fuck of a lot more than just a single murder. People who get baffled at how certain terms get used need to step outside their relationship with a person and think how the statement looks without 10 layers of "but I know that guy, he wouldn't mean that" because even if you're right - other people can't and won't know that and will draw their conclusions based on the arguments made. And you know, you could be wrong about the person you thought you knew - whether it's true in this case or not, it will be at times in your life, think people abusing their spouse etc. 

 

Just now, The Anti-Targ said:

I think in this case you are wrong. On the one hand Heyer's murderer was directly motivated by an ideology which includes explicit advocacy for violence against those who oppose it. I think here you can blame an ideology along with the individual for Heather Heyer's murder.

In terms of BLM, for starters BLM isn't an ideology, it's a movement which arose as a reaction to several cases of apparently unjustified killings of black men and boys by police in different US states. And as far as I know, while there are individuals and possibly even factions within BLM who are inclined towards violent means, BLM as a movement in general is not advocating violence. So you can separate the violent actions of BLM supporters from the aims and methods of BLM the social movement. But you can't separate the violent actions of Nazis from the aims and methods of the Nazi ideology. Perhaps back in the day before Hitler and co injected genocide of Jews, Gypsies and other non-conforming communities into their National Socialist ideology one could have separated individual violence from Nazi ideology. But that was hback int eh late 1920s / early 1930s. Today it's not possible to separate these things.

It's probably correct that the Nazi leadership did not want any Nazis to murder or even seriously injure anyone by instigating violence on that day. But the ideology IS the reason that murderer was there and it is the reason that murderer chose to use his car as a murder weapon.

I don't want either of you to think I'm being rude for not responding. I basically backed off this whole thing in the last thread and promised that I was no longer going to spin this particular merry-go-round. I respect both of you guys and I believe your points to be fair, but I'm going to hold myself to my pledge and move on.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Let's not forget that after Trump's inauguration a plethora of republican politicians proposed legislation that would make it legal to kill protesters with your vehicle if they were on a public street.  What a surprise when a member of a murderous, genocidal, hateful group actually does this.  

But you know, let's not be hypocrites.  Oh wait BLM isn't an ideology based on the murder of all cops.  Oops.

 

[Zorral]

11 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I think in this case you are wrong. On the one hand Heyer's murderer was directly motivated by an ideology which includes explicit advocacy for violence against those who oppose it. I think here you can blame an ideology along with the individual for Heather Heyer's murder.

In terms of BLM, for starters BLM isn't an ideology, it's a movement which arose as a reaction to several cases of apparently unjustified killings of black men and boys by police in different US states. And as far as I know, while there are individuals and possibly even factions within BLM who are inclined towards violent means, BLM as a movement in general is not advocating violence. So you can separate the violent actions of BLM supporters from the aims and methods of BLM the social movement. But you can't separate the violent actions of Nazis from the aims and methods of the Nazi ideology. Perhaps back in the day before Hitler and co injected genocide of Jews, Gypsies and other non-conforming communities into their National Socialist ideology one could have separated individual violence from Nazi ideology. But that was hback int eh late 1920s / early 1930s. Today it's not possible to separate these things.

It's probably correct that the Nazi leadership did not want any Nazis to murder or even seriously injure anyone by instigating violence on that day. But the ideology IS the reason that murderer was there and it is the reason that murderer chose to use his car as a murder weapon.

It's the But!ism -- that relegates everything into the same relative mush.

There are differences political and otherwise with these groups.  And those nazis are evil and they are responsible for Heather's and other deaths and all those other deaths they have been and continue to howl for -- including putting HRC at the top of the list.

Everything is NOT the same and Black Lives Matter are nothing like the alt-right, white supremacist, neo nazi groups who advocate for mass murder behind their white polo shirts and chinos, deliberately chosen to keep people from thinking of brown shirts, black shirts, kkk sheets, etc. when they march.  They tell us this, and that they do it to make their thinking mainstream.

Damn.  I'm back in the USA for sure now.  The only country where people think they can seriously debate whether or not nazis are to given regard and respect and compassion and lots and lots and lots of time to show they aren't as bad as they tell us they are.  

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Fuck but this merry-go-round really maintains centrifugal force well!

[maarsen]

Nazis killed 6 million people during the time they were in power in Germany. Anybody dressing in Nazi uniforms and associated regalia in the present day does so because they identify with Nazi aims. As for a group of evil people, I cannot separate the individual act from the group.  In the same vein Charlie Manson did not actually do the deeds he is in prison for,  but he does carry the responsibility. 

Manhole, I like you and understand what you were trying to say, but the ideology of the group contributed to a death. The ideology of BLM did not.

[Martell Spy]

The real cost of the Republican tax cuts
They’ll require spending cuts, or tax increases in other areas. Either could hurt many American families.

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/10/31/16581822/republican-tax-cuts-real-costs

The cowardice of Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell
The country needs more from its leaders than silence.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/31/16579016/paul-ryan-mitch-mcconnell-cowardice-trump

The weird way Trump actually lowered Obamacare premiums for millions

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/31/16586664/voxcare-obamacare-prices-silver-plan

[OldGimletEye]

Well, I guess we'll never figure out what to do about the AI revolution, when we can't even solve the simple crap. Dear lord.

https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/10/31/16584026/notre-dame-birth-control

Quote

The University of Notre Dame just became one of the first employers to take advantage of new Trump administration rules allowing exemptions to the Obamacare contraceptive mandate. Last week, the university announced that it would drop birth control coverage for its students, faculty, and staff.

........................................

Now, conservative sorts of people: We all know that credit fueled asset mispricing booms can end very badly. But, research seems to suggest that not all asset mispricing booms are equal. That is too say research seems to suggest that land/housing asset mispricing is much more devastating than say equity mispricing.

Now this relevant, cause at times you hear conservative sort of people suggest we raise the FED rate to tamp down asset prices, particularly after all their inflation mongering has failed. Even if I were to grant this would be a really good idea, which I don’t as evidence suggest there still some slack in the labor markets and there are better ways of handling these issues, it might be worth to take a look at what’s going on in housing.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/10/real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent.html

Quote

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National and Composite 20 House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to November 2003 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to September 2003 levels.

In real terms, prices are back to mid 2004 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is back to 2003 - and the price-to-rent ratio has been increasing slowly.

Price-to-rent ratio is probably a better measure of housing bubbles as theoretically an asset should be valued by its service flows discounted at an appropriate rate. Things don't look too crazy at this time. Equities are likely overvalued and a correction is probably coming, but land/housing prices, I think, is what you really worry about.