“For the watch”

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

What wildlings?  the 50 he thinks are there?  The whole point of my post was to point out that he doesn't think there is a wildling army to bring.  Look for yourself.  Mance leaves before Tormund and his wildlings come across, and when he left the wildlings at moles town hated Jon and the watch.

I don't think Mance is really that dense.  It's because of Molestown, that Jon shows his willingness to bargain for the manpower he needs at the Wall and the fact that 4000 wildlings will have to come through the wall sooner or later and they will have to bargain with Jon.  

 

[Quoth the raven,]

6 hours ago, Faera said:

The only problem with that is that the Wall has been begging for help for years. They had recently sent out ravens begging everyone and his brother for help against the wildling attack and it fell on deaf ears; only Stannis came to aid them. That is why Jon begins ADwD trying to negotiate with Stannis without potentially angering the other Northern lords or compromising the neutrality of the Night's Watch.

Bottom line was that the Lannisters, in particular, had been trying to politic with the Wall for a while now yet have provided nothing in the way of aid. In fact, when the Small Council plan to send "aid" to them it is merely a cover to go up there and murder Jon. I would say that what others have said here are right (and I have never thought about it much until it was laid out here) and that the Bastard Letter itself threatens to compromise the Wall's neutrality.

I pretty much agree with all you have said here @LynnS 

Slightly OT but it actually reminds me of one of Jon and Aemon's first proper discussions all the way back in AGoT, where he says:

"Tell me, Jon, if the day should ever come when your lord father must needs choose between honor on the one hand and those he loves on the other, what would he do?"
Jon hesitated. He wanted to say that Lord Eddard would never dishonor himself, not even for love, yet inside a small sly voice whispered, He fathered a bastard, where was the honor in that? And your mother, what of his duty to her, he will not even say her name. "He would do whatever was right," he said … ringingly, to make up for his hesitation. "No matter what."

So, what is the right thing? Eddard Stark ultimately did choose his daughter over his honour (and if we presume RLJ is true, then he spent his whole life "dishonouring" himself by lying for Jon's sake). Now, Jon decides he (finally) needs to stop Ramsay and he was willing to go alone. He gave people the choice as to whether to come with him.

(I would also question how Jon could be seen as the destructive one when it is Bowen Marsh and his co-conspirators who assassinated their elected Lord Commander in an act of treason that will almost certainly lead them and many others being killed... and probably marching on Winterfell, anyway.)

He ought to have let Arya stay with Ramsay Bolton and kept his mind on his job.  It's illegal and counterproductive to make an enemy of the Warden of the North when the Others/WW are about to attack.  The right thing to do is behead Mance Rayder and forget about Arya.

[Quoth the raven,]

23 hours ago, Noble Lothar Frey said:

Here's what we know.  It was cold.  Cold can make your fingers stiff and frost on the blade can make it stick.  Jon spent considerable time indoors with Tormund and then the Shieldhall when he admitted to his crimes and announced his intentions to attack Winterfell.  The humidity may be enough to bring enough moisture to the steel blade.  That moisture becomes sticky in very cold temperatures.  He goes from a humid area, back to a very cold outdoor air, and then back into the humidity of the giant's sleeping quarters.  It is possible for frost to form on the blade and the sheath.

It's obvious from the text that Bowen was and is a very dutiful man of the NW.  His reasons are clear:  He had to stop his fool of a commander.  We don't need to bring unnecessary complexity to try and make B Marsh and the NW look like bad guys.  They were good men who did their duties to the NW. 

Gladiator.  Something Russell Crowe said.

[The Drunkard]

13 hours ago, Faera said:

The only problem with that is that the Wall has been begging for help for years. They had recently sent out ravens begging everyone and his brother for help against the wildling attack and it fell on deaf ears; only Stannis came to aid them. That is why Jon begins ADwD trying to negotiate with Stannis without potentially angering the other Northern lords or compromising the neutrality of the Night's Watch.

Bottom line was that the Lannisters, in particular, had been trying to politic with the Wall for a while now yet have provided nothing in the way of aid. In fact, when the Small Council plan to send "aid" to them it is merely a cover to go up there and murder Jon. I would say that what others have said here are right (and I have never thought about it much until it was laid out here) and that the Bastard Letter itself threatens to compromise the Wall's neutrality.

With Stannis dead as far as anyone at the Wall is concerned, the NW is reliant on those people for aid. It doesn't matter how much it may disgust the people at the Wall or how unwilling the people to the south might be to help, they're the only ones left. The NW can't defend the Wall with a couple hundred watchmen and a couple thousand wildlings. Getting the few defenders remaining killed in order to fight the people the Wall needs to defend it is silly, regardless of how personally justified it might feel. 

As to neutrality, Jon already threw that out the window, justified or not. I agree with the decision to give Stannis aid considering he's the only power south of the Wall to want to fight the Others, but you can't argue that Jon maintained NW neutrality while giving Stannis food, armour and weapons, military advice, information on what his political enemies were planning, as well as setting up a meeting with an Iron Bank representative. The Boltons are responding in kind, particularly as they believe that Jon spared a deserter-turned-invader solely to steal his sister back. 

[the trees have eyes]

4 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

With Stannis dead as far as anyone at the Wall is concerned, the NW is reliant on those people for aid. It doesn't matter how much it may disgust the people at the Wall or how unwilling the people to the south might be to help, they're the only ones left. The NW can't defend the Wall with a couple hundred watchmen and a couple thousand wildlings. Getting the few defenders remaining killed in order to fight the people the Wall needs to defend it is silly, regardless of how personally justified it might feel. 

As to neutrality, Jon already threw that out the window, justified or not. I agree with the decision to give Stannis aid considering he's the only power south of the Wall to want to fight the Others, but you can't argue that Jon maintained NW neutrality while giving Stannis food, armour and weapons, military advice, information on what his political enemies were planning, as well as setting up a meeting with an Iron Bank representative. The Boltons are responding in kind, particularly as they believe that Jon spared a deserter-turned-invader solely to steal his sister back. 

I am constantly surprised by how Roose Bolton is equated with "the North" as if it as simple as that and there is a unified Northern nobility and army to be brought to the assistance of the NW and the defence of the realm if only Jon hadn't attempted to rescue Arya.

The whole point of showing Jon telling Stannis how to win the mountain clans and the Northern Lords to his side is to illustrate that the North hates Roose Bolton.  Manderley is not the only one who knows what happened at the sack of Winterfell or at the Red Wedding and you can be sure he has not been keeping Wex's story re the former to himself.

The North knows that Ramsey killed Leobald Tallhart and Cley Cerwin and sacked Winterfell; they know he abducted and starved Donella Hornwood (nee Manderley) to death; they know Roose was involved in the Red Wedding and the murders of Robb and Catelyn, of SmallJon Umber, Dacey Mormont, Wendel Manderley, Robin Flint, Donel Locke and Owen Norrey.

It's only a shame that Jon got involved in a confrontation with Ramsey before the Northern rebellion takes out the Boltons.  It is of course all part of levelling the defences and destroying any coherent organisation capable of resisting the Others but Bolton's arc has been about power, Jon's about the defence of the realm, let's not imagine it's the other way round.

[Moiraine Sedai]

4 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

With Stannis dead as far as anyone at the Wall is concerned, the NW is reliant on those people for aid. It doesn't matter how much it may disgust the people at the Wall or how unwilling the people to the south might be to help, they're the only ones left. The NW can't defend the Wall with a couple hundred watchmen and a couple thousand wildlings. Getting the few defenders remaining killed in order to fight the people the Wall needs to defend it is silly, regardless of how personally justified it might feel. 

As to neutrality, Jon already threw that out the window, justified or not. I agree with the decision to give Stannis aid considering he's the only power south of the Wall to want to fight the Others, but you can't argue that Jon maintained NW neutrality while giving Stannis food, armour and weapons, military advice, information on what his political enemies were planning, as well as setting up a meeting with an Iron Bank representative. The Boltons are responding in kind, particularly as they believe that Jon spared a deserter-turned-invader solely to steal his sister back. 

The problem Jon was causing was contained at first.  A lot of people were unhappy when he killed Janos and spared Mance but the problem was internal to the watch at that point.  It became more than incompetent leadership and an unjust judgment when he sent the Wildlings to infiltrate Winterfell and take his sister out.  That was a direct attack on a noble house of the north and rose to the level of treason.

[Moiraine Sedai]

5 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

I am constantly surprised by how Roose Bolton is equated with "the North" as if it as simple as that and there is a unified Northern nobility and army to be brought to the assistance of the NW and the defence of the realm if only Jon hadn't attempted to rescue Arya.

The whole point of showing Jon telling Stannis how to win the mountain clans and the Northern Lords to his side is to illustrate that the North hates Roose Bolton.  Manderley is not the only one who knows what happened at the sack of Winterfell or at the Red Wedding and you can be sure he has not been keeping Wex's story re the former to himself.

The North knows that Ramsey killed Leobald Tallhart and Cley Cerwin and sacked Winterfell; they know he abducted and starved Donella Hornwood (nee Manderley) to death; they know Roose was involved in the Red Wedding and the murders of Robb and Catelyn, of SmallJon Umber, Dacey Mormont, Wendel Manderley, Robin Flint, Donel Locke and Owen Norrey.

It's only a shame that Jon got involved in a confrontation with Ramsey before the Northern rebellion takes out the Boltons.  It is of course all part of levelling the defences and destroying any coherent organisation capable of resisting the Others but Bolton's arc has been about power, Jon's about the defence of the realm, let's not imagine it's the other way round.

Jon's arc is about someone who swore to take on a great responsibility and betrayed that responsibility for personal reasons.  He couldn't do what he asked the other men to do.  Jon failed to live up to the standards that he and the other lord commanders before him required of every man of the watch.  Jon was a failure because he can't place the greater good over his affection for the Starks.  Jon should never have been in a position to command.  He could have been fine as a ranger as long as he's not the head ranger.  But leadership is not where he deserved to be.

[The Drunkard]

11 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

I am constantly surprised by how Roose Bolton is equated with "the North" as if it as simple as that and there is a unified Northern nobility and army to be brought to the assistance of the NW and the defence of the realm if only Jon hadn't attempted to rescue Arya.

The whole point of showing Jon telling Stannis how to win the mountain clans and the Northern Lords to his side is to illustrate that the North hates Roose Bolton.  Manderley is not the only one who knows what happened at the sack of Winterfell or at the Red Wedding and you can be sure he has not been keeping Wex's story re the former to himself.

The North knows that Ramsey killed Leobald Tallhart and Cley Cerwin and sacked Winterfell; they know he abducted and starved Donella Hornwood (nee Manderley) to death; they know Roose was involved in the Red Wedding and the murders of Robb and Catelyn, of SmallJon Umber, Dacey Mormont, Wendel Manderley, Robin Flint, Donel Locke and Owen Norrey.

It's only a shame that Jon got involved in a confrontation with Ramsey before the Northern rebellion takes out the Boltons.  It is of course all part of levelling the defences and destroying any coherent organisation capable of resisting the Others but Bolton's arc has been about power, Jon's about the defence of the realm, let's not imagine it's the other way round.

Jon and Bowen are aware of none of this. They cannot know what minor northern powers may or may not be planning with regards to overthrowing the Boltons, what they do know is that Stannis had rallied the thousands northmen willing to fight the Boltons and that they were supposedly defeated, leaving the Boltons currently uncontested. Their choices at that stage are to accept the new status quo and work with the Boltons (a choice not available to Jon given the help he had given Stannis) or to oppose them with the meagre forces left at the Wall. Jon favoured the latter, Bowen the former.

Jon's plan to continue Stannis' fight only makes sense if he is significantly more powerful than the Boltons and can quickly wrap up the war and secure the North, or if he can count on mass-rebellion undoing the Boltons and delivering the North to him, and he can't rely on either of those things.

2 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The problem Jon was causing was contained at first.  A lot of people were unhappy when he killed Janos and spared Mance but the problem was internal to the watch at that point.  It became more than incompetent leadership and an unjust judgment when he sent the Wildlings to infiltrate Winterfell and take his sister out.  That was a direct attack on a noble house of the north and rose to the level of treason.

He didn't actually send Mance to Winterfell. I believe the original plan was for Mance to nab Arya after she had fled into NW territory, which is arguably an ok thing for the Watch to do. But Mance for w/e reason journeyed onto Winterfell and got involved of his own volition (or on Mel's orders).

But I agree on the perception, no one but Melisandre and Jon (and maybe Stannis) have the above information. As far as anyone else knows, Jon helped spare someone entirely deserving of death to make illegal use of him for personal reasons, which confirms the perception that he's abusing his LC powers to help his family and hurt their enemies.

[Moiraine Sedai]

2 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

Jon and Bowen are aware of none of this. They cannot know what minor northern powers may or may not be planning with regards to overthrowing the Boltons, what they do know is that Stannis had rallied the thousands northmen willing to fight the Boltons and that they were supposedly defeated, leaving the Boltons currently uncontested. Their choices at that stage are to accept the new status quo and work with the Boltons (a choice not available to Jon given the help he had given Stannis) or to oppose them with the meagre forces left at the Wall. Jon favoured the latter, Bowen the former.

Jon's plan to continue Stannis' fight only makes sense if he is significantly more powerful than the Boltons and can quickly wrap up the war and secure the North, or if he can count on mass-rebellion undoing the Boltons and delivering the North to him, and he can't rely on either of those things.

He didn't actually send Mance to Winterfell. I believe the original plan was for Mance to nab Arya after she had fled into NW territory, which is arguably an ok thing for the Watch to do. But Mance for w/e reason journeyed onto Winterfell and got involved of his own volition (or on Mel's orders).

But I agree on the perception, no one but Melisandre and Jon (and maybe Stannis) have the above information. As far as anyone else knows, Jon helped spare someone entirely deserving of death to make illegal use of him for personal reasons, which confirms the perception that he's abusing his LC powers to help his family and hurt their enemies.

Jon sent Mance to fetch Arya and he knew the man may need to go to infiltrate Winterfell.  That was the reason for the ruse with the women.  To fool Roose into letting Mance through the gates.   Besides, Mance was acting under Jon's command, so the buck stops with Jon.  Mance was Jon's agent.   Mance thought Jon had his son hostage and agreed to do Jon's bidding.  So yes, Mance was operating and working for Jon.  Jon is responsible for what Mance and the spearwomen do.   Treason.  Breakage of guest rights.  Murder.  Trespassing.  Kidnapping.  

 

[kissdbyfire]

14 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

But I agree on the perception, no one but Melisandre and Jon (and maybe Stannis) have the above information. As far as anyone else knows, Jon helped spare someone entirely deserving of death to make illegal use of him for personal reasons, which confirms the perception that he's abusing his LC powers to help his family and hurt their enemies.

This argument is used a lot but it doesn't really make sense to me. No one at CB but Jon and Mel know that Mance is alive. Mance having been spared or not, sent on a mission to wherever or not, none of that matters because as far as anyone knows Mance is dead. 

Very good points, @the trees have eyes.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

The only reason the letter was sent to Jon was to lure him out of Castle Black and down to Winterfell. Jon was never going to turn over the people mentioned in the letter, especially not Val and the baby. And the letter says that "Arya" has fled. I'm not saying anything new, but this was personal and whoever wrote the letter knew exactly how to needle Jon and get him to stir. Ramsay is a threat to the Night's Watch and everything that Jon has been trying to accomplish. 

It will be interesting to see how the northmen present at the Wall will react to the letter. Big Liddle's brother was marching in Stannis's host as were Brandon Norrey, Artos and Black Donnel Flint. I think The Norrey and Flint will see Jon's actions completely differently from Bowen Marsh and Co. 

Just my two coppers worth.

[The Drunkard]

11 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jon sent Mance to fetch Arya and he knew the man may need to go to infiltrate Winterfell.  That was the reason for the ruse with the women.  To fool Roose into letting Mance through the gates.   Besides, Mance was acting under Jon's command, so the buck stops with Jon.  Mance was Jon's agent.   Mance thought Jon had his son hostage and agreed to do Jon's bidding.  So yes, Mance was operating and working for Jon.  Jon is responsible for what Mance and the spearwomen do.   Treason.  Breakage of guest rights.  Murder.  Trespassing.  Kidnapping.  

Melisandre told Mance that he would find the girl at Long Lake and neither of them mentioned the possibility of infiltrating Winterfell to Jon. 

10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

This argument is used a lot but it doesn't really make sense to me. No one at CB but Jon and Mel know that Mance is alive. Mance having been spared or not, sent on a mission to wherever or not, none of that matters because as far as anyone knows Mance is dead. 

After Jon reads out the Pink Letter they would be aware of the accusation that Jon had spared Mance and set him loose, which they would be inclined to believe if they're already suspicious of Jon's motivations and Stannis/Melisandre (which Bowen definitely is). 

[LynnS]

10 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

Melisandre told Mance that he would find the girl at Long Lake and neither of them mentioned the possibility of infiltrating Winterfell to Jon. 

After Jon reads out the Pink Letter they would be aware of the accusation that Jon had spared Mance and set him loose, which they would be inclined to believe if they're already suspicious of Jon's motivations and Stannis/Melisandre (which Bowen definitely is). 

Mance does mention that he wants try out his own ploy after he confronts Jon about the ploy he used to infiltrate the wildlings:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I

"So you could betray them to the Weeper?"

"Are we talking about betrayals? What was the name of that wildling wife of yours, Snow? Ygritte, wasn't it?" The wildling turned to Melisandre. "I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole's Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl's more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind."

I don't think Mance is dancing entirely to Melisandre's tune.  And yes they know about Mance when Jon reveals the pink letter:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XIII

When he was done, Tormund whistled. "Har. That's buggered, and no mistake. What was that about Mance? Has him in a cage, does he? How, when hundreds saw your red witch burn the man?"

That was Rattleshirt, Jon almost said. That was sorcery. A glamor, she called it. "Melisandre … look to the skies, she said." He set the letter down. "A raven in a storm. She saw this coming." When you have your answers, send to me.

"Might be all a skin o' lies." Tormund scratched under his beard. "If I had me a nice goose quill and a pot o' maester's ink, I could write down that me member was long and thick as me arm, wouldn't make it so."

The raven in a storm does call to mind Mance and his Raven Helm.  The wildlings don't seem to need as much convincing as Tormund:

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XIII

But when a knight died, his shield was taken down, that it might go with him to his pyre or his tomb, and over the years and centuries fewer and fewer knights had taken the black. A day came when it no longer made sense for the knights of Castle Black to dine apart. The Shieldhall was abandoned. In the last hundred years, it had been used only infrequently. As a dining hall, it left much to be desired—it was dark, dirty, drafty, and hard to heat in winter, its cellars infested with rats, its massive wooden rafters worm-eaten and festooned with cobwebs.

But it was large and long enough to seat two hundred, and half again that many if they crowded close. When Jon and Tormund entered, a sound went through the hall, like wasps stirring in a nest. The wildlings outnumbered the crows by five to one, judging by how little black he saw. Fewer than a dozen shields remained, sad grey things with faded paint and long cracks in the wood. But fresh torches burned in the iron sconces along the walls, and Jon had ordered benches and tables brought in. Men with comfortable seats were more inclined to listen, Maester Aemon had once told him; standing men were more inclined to shout.

At the top of the hall a sagging platform stood. Jon mounted it, with Tormund Giantsbane at his side, and raised his hands for quiet. The wasps only buzzed the louder. Then Tormund put his warhorn to his lips and blew a blast. The sound filled the hall, echoing off the rafters overhead. Silence fell.

"I summoned you to make plans for the relief of Hardhome," Jon Snow began. "Thousands of the free folk are gathered there, trapped and starving, and we have had reports of dead things in the wood." To his left he saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders, whilst Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him. To his right, Soren Shieldbreaker sat with his arms crossed against his chest. Farther back, Jon saw Gavin the Trader and Harle the Handsome whispering together. Ygon Oldfather sat amongst his wives, Howd Wanderer alone. Borroq leaned against a wall in a dark corner. Mercifully, his boar was nowhere in evidence. "The ships I sent to take off Mother Mole and her people have been wracked by storms. We must send what help we can by land or let them die." Two of Queen Selyse's knights had come as well, Jon saw. Ser Narbert and Ser Benethon stood near the door at the foot of the hall. But the rest of the queen's men were conspicuous in their absence. "I had hoped to lead the ranging myself and bring back as many of the free folk as could survive the journey." A flash of red in the back of the hall caught Jon's eye. Lady Melisandre had arrived. "But now I find I cannot go to Hardhome. The ranging will be led by Tormund Giantsbane, known to you all. I have promised him as many men as he requires."

"And where will you be, crow?" Borroq thundered. "Hiding here in Castle Black with your white dog?"

"No. I ride south." Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.

The Shieldhall went mad.

Every man began to shout at once. They leapt to their feet, shaking fists. So much for the calming power of comfortable benches. Swords were brandished, axes smashed against shields. Jon Snow looked to Tormund. The Giantsbane sounded his horn once more, twice as long and twice as loud as the first time.

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them. No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking, the crime is mine and mine alone. Then Tormund was pounding him on the back, all gap-toothed grin from ear to ear. "Well spoken, crow. Now bring out the mead! Make them yours and get them drunk, that's how it's done. We'll make a wildling o' you yet, boy. Har!"

 

This may be a personal matter for Jon but I question whether the Night's Watch has a duty to protect their LC.  What Lord or King has the right to threaten the Night's Watch or it's LC or interfere with the obligations of the Watch on the Wall?  Will the King's Justice control the creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women and swears to cut the heart from the LC?  Ramsey isn't observing the conventions that govern the neutrality between the Watch and the Kingdom.  Jon has no choice but to respond. 

[kissdbyfire]

19 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

After Jon reads out the Pink Letter they would be aware of the accusation that Jon had spared Mance and set him loose, which they would be inclined to believe if they're already suspicious of Jon's motivations and Stannis/Melisandre (which Bowen definitely is). 

I don't think they would be inclined to believe it... And why should they? After all, they saw "Mance" burn, and they saw him die like a pincushion. They know fArya and Reek aren't there, so why believe something that contradicts what they saw w/ their own eyes?

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I don't think Mance is dancing entirely to Melisandre's tune.  And yes they know about Mance when Jon reveals the pink letter:

How? We don't even see Jon tell Tormund. Just the opposite, in fact, we have that "Jon almost said" to show that he caught himself before actually saying anything. I think he may have told Tormund when they talk for almost 2 hours to change their plans, but we can't even be sure of that since we don't witness the convo. And when Jon reads the letter in the Shieldhall it's clear he doesn't say anything. 

[The Drunkard]

13 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Mance does mention that he wants try out his own ploy after he confronts Jon about the ploy he used to infiltrate the wildlings:

I don't think Mance is dancing entirely to Melisandre's tune. 

I wouldn't use that as evidence that Jon knew he was going to Winterfell, though. When I read that passage I just thought that the abundance of women would give him good cover if he was questioned on the way south/north by anyone else pursuing the girl. 

I agree about him not being straight with Mel. I think he wants to use Arya as a bargaining chip to free his own son, whom he thinks is still at the Wall. 

11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't think they would be inclined to believe it... And why should they? After all, they saw "Mance" burn, and they saw him die like a pincushion. They know fArya and Reek aren't there, so why believe something that contradicts what they saw w/ their own eyes?

People often assume the worst about Mel and what she does with her magic. Some king's men think she caused the defeat at the Blackwater, Davos thought for a while that she had bewitched Stannis' mind, Salladhor said there were rumours that she was taking Stannis into the heart of the volcano at Dragonstone for some reason, the wildlings who didn't accept Stannis' offer thought she was secretly burning everyone who did, Jon and Aemon thought she was going to burn Mance's baby based on the mutterings of a feverish foot soldier. I think it's likely that people like Bowen would hear the accusation about Melisandre faking the execution and believe it. 

[LynnS]

10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

How? We don't even see Jon tell Tormund. Just the opposite, in fact, we have that "Jon almost said" to show that he caught himself before actually saying anything. I think he may have told Tormund when they talk for almost 2 hours to change their plans, but we can't even be sure of that since we don't witness the convo. And when Jon reads the letter in the Shieldhall it's clear he doesn't say anything. 

He doesn't tell him that Rattleshirt was burned.  He tells him that what they saw was sorcery, a glamor.  He doesn't say anything about Mance because the reaction in the Shield Hall speaks for itself.  The letter says that Mance is Ramsey's captive.  Does it matter if they believe Mance was burned or not?  The wildlings will go to Winterfell one way or the other.  I think it's a mistake to think that the only threat to the Wall's security comes from north of the Wall when the Watch is also exposed and vulnerable on the south side of the Wall. 

[LynnS]

18 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

I wouldn't use that as evidence that Jon knew he was going to Winterfell, though.

I didn't say that Jon knew he was going to Winterfell.  He wasn't told anything about Melisandre's plans only that he could be trusted.  He does know that there is a some kind of plan and that Mance is alive.  So when the pink letter arrives and Ramsey claim's Mance is his prisoner, why would Jon Snow question it since he believes that Arya was at Winterfell at some point..  He certainly wouldn't be surprised by the revelation that Mance is alive and at Winterfell.

As far as Mance's ploy is concerned, Melisandre does tell him about her vision of a girl on a horse and he questions her about what she saw.  The girl is clearly fleeing from Winterfell and Mance is meant to find her.  Instead he ends up at Winterfell; when the girl has already left Winterfell.   He has his own plans that don't include Melisandre.

[kissdbyfire]

25 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

People often assume the worst about Mel and what she does with her magic. Some king's men think she caused the defeat at the Blackwater, Davos thought for a while that she had bewitched Stannis' mind, Salladhor said there were rumours that she was taking Stannis into the heart of the volcano at Dragonstone for some reason, the wildlings who didn't accept Stannis' offer thought she was secretly burning everyone who did, Jon and Aemon thought she was going to burn Mance's baby based on the mutterings of a feverish foot soldier. I think it's likely that people like Bowen would hear the accusation about Melisandre faking the execution and believe it. 

But where and when is this accusation made?

17 minutes ago, LynnS said:

He doesn't tell him that Rattleshirt was burned.  He tells him that what they saw was sorcery, a glamor.  He doesn't say anything about Mance because the reaction in the Shield Hall speaks for itself.  The letter says that Mance is Ramsey's captive.  Does it matter if they believe Mance was burned or not?  The wildlings will go to Winterfell one way or the other.  I think it's a mistake to think that the only threat to the Wall's security comes from north of the Wall when the Watch is also exposed and vulnerable on the south side of the Wall. 

No, he doesn't. Look at the punctuation and use of italics in the convo. 

“That was Rattleshirt, Jon almost said. That was sorcery. A glamor, she called it. “Melisandre … look to the skies, she said.” He set the letter down. “A raven in a storm. She saw this coming.” When you have your answers, send to me.
“Might be all a skin o’ lies.” Tormund scratched under his beard. “If I had me a nice goose quill and a pot o’ maester’s ink, I could write down that me member was long and thick as me arm, wouldn’t make it so.”
“He has Lightbringer. He talks of heads upon the walls of Winterfell. He knows about the spearwives and their number.” He knows about Mance Rayder. “No. There is truth in there.”
“I won’t say you’re wrong. What do you mean to do, crow?”

 

[LynnS]

30 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

People often assume the worst about Mel and what she does with her magic. Some king's men think she caused the defeat at the Blackwater, Davos thought for a while that she had bewitched Stannis' mind, Salladhor said there were rumours that she was taking Stannis into the heart of the volcano at Dragonstone for some reason, the wildlings who didn't accept Stannis' offer thought she was secretly burning everyone who did, Jon and Aemon thought she was going to burn Mance's baby based on the mutterings of a feverish foot soldier. I think it's likely that people like Bowen would hear the accusation about Melisandre faking the execution and believe it. 

I think that Mel keeps her cards close to her chest.  As far as the caverns under Dragonstone; this was probably the place where dragon eggs are likely to be found.  The place itself was used for breeding and keeping dragons and there is a hint that it was built with sorcery or is a place of sorcery. which would explain why Melisandre is found there.  She links waking dragons from stone with Dragonstone.