“For the watch”

[divica]

5 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Interesting. I don't know & all it does is bring back to mind that damnable pink letter. Is Mance caught or not caught? If he is not who wants to pretend he is? What does the author of the PL have to gain & what motives are behind writing it?

What if Ramsay really did write it & everything he says is true? It can't be though. Can it? 

It can t be true. First it would give the result of several battles grrm is going to spend several chapters writing... Can you imagine grrm giving us the outcome of this battles with 1 book in advance? Then there is the timeline, basically we would spend a great amount of the book in 2 locations in very diferent times (and don t forget stannis sent people to the Wall that mybe should have arrived there by the time of jon's last chapter if there is such a time difference between stannis and jon) . Then there is the show. Stannis has to order shireen's burning, I think that was one of the wow moments grrm told D&D.

So I think in one of the first chapters of twow we will know that the pink letter is false. Who wrote it and why? I would bet on mance or the mastermind of the northern conspiracy (if it exists).

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

11 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

This, very much. The damnable pink letter is causing a lot of stress at CB as the moment... not to mention the fact that there are clues that it could have been tampered with... which coincidentally follows not too long after Lady Dustin goes on and on with Theon about why not to trust a “grey rat” maester. It’s kinda like the author was setting it up for the reader, or something 

Yes. I really wish The George would explain this one teeny part of this mammoth series so I could find some other teeny part to drive me crazy for a while. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

9 minutes ago, divica said:

It can t be true. First it would give the result of several battles grrm is going to spend several chapters writing... Can you imagine grrm giving us the outcome of this battles with 1 book in advance? Then there is the timeline, basically we would spend a great amount of the book in 2 locations in very diferent times (and don t forget stannis sent people to the Wall that mybe should have arrived there by the time of jon's last chapter if there is such a time difference between stannis and jon) . Then there is the show. Stannis has to order shireen's burning, I think that was one of the wow moments grrm told D&D.

So I think in one of the first chapters of twow we will know that the pink letter is false. Who wrote it and why? I would bet on mance or the mastermind of the northern conspiracy (if it exists).

Oh I agree it's not true. That what if question was more like "What if I have drove myself crazy over this letter only to learn it is nothing more than what's on the surface. 

I go back & forth & around in circles on the author. 

What do you think maybe Mance's motive to write the letter? It seems whoever wrote it hoped to goad Jon into bringing an army to WF but could not ask him to do that for one reason or another. 

 

ETA: imagine Jon finding out the letter is a lie & Mance or someone other than Ramsay wrote it. 

"Mance you asshole! I literally died for that letter!" 

[divica]

13 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Oh I agree it's not true. That what if question was more like "What if I have drove myself crazy over this letter only to learn it is nothing more than what's on the surface. 

I go back & forth & around in circles on the author. 

What do you think maybe Mance's motive to write the letter? It seems whoever wrote it hoped to goad Jon into bringing an army to WF but could not ask him to do that for one reason or another. 

 

ETA: imagine Jon finding out the letter is a lie & Mance or someone other than Ramsay wrote it. 

"Mance you asshole! I literally died for that letter!" 

There are some theories around about mance's agenda. Like when he introduces himself he says he is known to some as "the mance" which is a term used in the northern clans. Then add that when the NW asked for help no clan answered but when jon arranged alys marriage they appeared pretty fast and we have a possible mistery.

 

To me he can easily think that he found the horn of winter somewhere in winterfell and is using the PL to make jon bring an army of wildlings to winterfell. There he will anounce to them he found the horn and threaten jon to release the hostage wildlings and help him in his plans or he brings the Wall down and they all die. The army is there to protect mance from the rest of the northmen and make sure that if things go south (hehe) he can go to the wall and blow the horn (if he even needs to be near the Wall for it to work). Otherwise it would be pretty riskyIt could even tie up that there must always be a stark in winterfell because they have to protect the horn...

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Interesting. I don't know & all it does is bring back to mind that damnable pink letter. Is Mance caught or not caught? If he is not who wants to pretend he is? What does the author of the PL have to gain & what motives are behind writing it?

What if Ramsay really did write it & everything he says is true? It can't be though. Can it? 

This is the kind of thing where I don't really know what foot to dance on. For me, it's the seal on the letter. This is the one thing that is described that we know for sure is completely different from the other two letters we have seen with Ramsay's letters. 

There might be some indication that Mance is behind it in Theon I, Dance. I just don't understand what his motivation would be. 

I'm very unclear whether Mance knew Arya was a fake, or not. Regardless, he seemed intent on carrying his plans out. I don't know why Ramsay would want Jeyne back. Once Jon sees the bride he will know exactly who she is and that Arya was never at Winterfell. And if this decisive battle is won, do the Boltons really need the girl? I'd think that it might be enough to bring the north to heel. 

I'm leaning towards a 3rd person who is inside Castle Black. And it falls on Mel because of the way she interprets her flames. We saw what she did with Renly because she messed up. And I don't mean that she intended on having Jon stabbed, but rather that she wanted him to go to Winterfell for some reason. But the hiccup with that is Reek. She wouldn't know about Reek anymore than Jon would.

It's a happy mess.

 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

8 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

I think you just need to ask one question here: are we, the readers, meant to think Yarwyck's fear of a wild boar army is a reasonable one?  It seems you may but do you really think this was GRRM's intention?

I don't think it's entirely unreasonable, especially if Yarwyck has tangoed with wild boars in the past. I think it's unreasonable for Jon or anyone else to dismiss his concerns about the savage creatures that lurk in the woods. I mean the NW has been low on food with the Free Folk, Stannis' men and everyone now all at the wall. Why doesn't anyone think to go out and hunt these harmless "little piggies?" Because they don't want to be ambushed by wild angry monstrous beasts, that would be my guess.  

As readers we have knowledge that the characters do not. I'm looking at this from Yarwyck's point of view. Even as readers we know that a wild boar killed a King skilled in arms and hunting.

 

7 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I can't believe this is still being argued.

That wild boars are fearsome deadly beasts that should be feared? Yes, such a silly argument. I'm sure Borroq wants everyone to think his beast is cute and cuddly and not at all intimidating.   

 

I'll admit, the fact that I have dealt with wild boar before may make my views somewhat bias. However I'll tell you this friends, you don't want to find yourself face to face with such fearsome beasts and you definitely don't want to be charged by one neither. Not even the most durable walking stick will help you, believe me.

[Clegane'sPup]

22 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Interesting. I don't know & all it does is bring back to mind that damnable pink letter. Is Mance caught or not caught? If he is not who wants to pretend he is? What does the author of the PL have to gain & what motives are behind writing it?

What if Ramsay really did write it & everything he says is true? It can't be though. Can it? 

The polite name I call the pink/bastard letter is dastardly. The impolite name is mind fuck.

When I made the earlier post something clicked in my befuddled mind. I have to do a bit of digging around to see it my has any relevance.

Edit: my long winded non explanation

Who is at WF beside Bolton & Frey forces? Theon gives a few names. Let me not forget to mention the not hooded “hooded man.”

A Dance with Dragons - A Ghost in Winterfell     The castle was too crowded to withstand a long siege, and too many of the lords here were of uncertain loyalty. Fat Wyman Manderly, Whoresbane Umber, the men of House Hornwood and House Tallhart, the Lockes and Flints and Ryswells, all of them were northmen, sworn to House Stark for generations beyond count./

A ruckus breaks out when one of the Frey’s brings the dead Walder kid into the Hall.

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I     Ser Hosteen Frey ripped his longsword from its scabbard and leapt toward Wyman Manderly. The Lord of White Harbor tried to jerk away, but the tabletop pinned him to his chair. The blade slashed through three of his four chins in a spray of bright red blood. Lady Walda gave a shriek and clutched at her lord husband's arm. "Stop," Roose Bolton shouted. "Stop this madness." His own men rushed forward as the Manderlys vaulted over the benches to get at the Freys./

Roose brings order to the Hall. A raven has arrived saying Stannis is not three days from WF and he gives the order for Frey and Manderly troops to ride.

Here is a problem –Manderly is flopping around on the floor like a clubbed walrus yet Roose says Wyman is to gather his forces.

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I    "I see you all want blood," the Lord of the Dreadfort said. Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird's black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship's hand, a parchment. That will be wet as well. Dark wings, dark words. "Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis." Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment. "His host lies not three days' ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well."/

Roose calls Mance/Abel to the dais. The Freys leave. Rowan tells Theon the time is now. They get fArya out of her room and on to road of rescue.

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I     Beyond the castle walls, winter was waiting with its icy teeth. If we get that far. "This way," he said when they came to a junction where three trenches crossed.   "Frenya, Holly, go with them," Rowan said. "We will be along with Abel. Do not wait for us." And with that, she whirled and plunged into the snow, toward the Great Hall. Willow and Myrtle hurried after her, cloaks snapping in the wind./

Shyte hits the fan. Theon grabs Jeyne and jumps. That ends Theon’s DwD story until the preview chapter is displayed on Martin’s site.

Theon and Jeyne are now in Stannis’ possession.

The Winds of Winter - Theon I    "I saved her." The outer wall of Winterfell was eighty feet high, but beneath the spot where he had jumped the snows had piled up to a depth of more than forty. A cold white pillow. The girl had taken the worst of it. Jeyne, her name is Jeyne, but she will never tell them. Theon had landed on top of her, and broken some of her ribs. "I saved the girl," he said. "We flew."

Stannis snorted. "You fell. Umber saved her. If Mors Crowfood and his men had not been outside the castle, Bolton would have had the both of you back in moments."    Crowfood. Theon remembered. An old man, huge and powerful, with a ruddy face and a shaggy white beard. He had been seated on a garron, clad in the pelt of a gigantic snow bear, its head his hood. Under it he wore a stained white leather eye patch that reminded Theon of his uncle Euron. He'd wanted to rip it off Umber's face, to make certain that underneath was only an empty socket, not a black eye shining with malice. Instead he had whimpered through his broken teeth and said, "I am — "/

Theon remembers that Crowfood sorta interrogates Jeyne. Crowfood is Mors, not Whoresbane who is Hother. Hother is the one inside WF.  Theon also remembers that while he was in Crowfood/Mors possession the portcullis opens. Was that the Freys or the Manderlys riding out?

The Winds of Winter - Theon I      "Mikken," Jeyne said.    Mors Umber had grunted. "Aye." What he might have said or done next Theon never learned, for that was when the boy ran up, clutching a spear and shouting that the portcullis on Winterfell's main gate was rising. And how Crowfood had grinned at that.

Mance’s last known location was sitting on the dais after the Freys left the Hall. Before the alarm went out Rowan, Willow and Myrtle were on their way back to the Hall.

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I    "Frenya, Holly, go with them," Rowan said. "We will be along with Abel. Do not wait for us." And with that, she whirled and plunged into the snow, toward the Great Hall. Willow and Myrtle hurried after her, cloaks snapping in the wind./

Stannis interrogates the Dreadfort maester.

The Winds of Winter - Theon I      Maester Tybald did not answer. Theon Greyjoy kicked his feet feebly, and laughed under his breath. Caught!     "Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"     Maester Tybald pissed his robes. Theon could not see the dark stain spreading from where he hung, but the smell of piss was sharp and strong./

So you see it solves nothing. Supposedly that Theon chapter happened before the pink/bastard letter arrived at Castle Black. Before you ask, no I can’t supply any ssm’s. Maybe someone else can verify if they are so inclined. Or a person can ask a small question as to which came first.

 

[the trees have eyes]

On 16/12/2017 at 2:22 AM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I don't think it's entirely unreasonable, especially if Yarwyck has tangoed with wild boars in the past. I think it's unreasonable for Jon or anyone else to dismiss his concerns about the savage creatures that lurk in the woods. I mean the NW has been low on food with the Free Folk, Stannis' men and everyone now all at the wall. Why doesn't anyone think to go out and hunt these harmless "little piggies?" Because they don't want to be ambushed by wild angry monstrous beasts, that would be my guess.  

As readers we have knowledge that the characters do not. I'm looking at this from Yarwyck's point of view. Even as readers we know that a wild boar killed a King skilled in arms and hunting.

 

That wild boars are fearsome deadly beasts that should be feared? Yes, such a silly argument. I'm sure Borroq wants everyone to think his beast is cute and cuddly and not at all intimidating.   

 

I'll admit, the fact that I have dealt with wild boar before may make my views somewhat bias. However I'll tell you this friends, you don't want to find yourself face to face with such fearsome beasts and you definitely don't want to be charged by one neither. Not even the most durable walking stick will help you, believe me.

Duuuuuuuude...........

No one is arguing that Yarwyck being cautious of a large dangerous wild animal is silly.

What we are saying is that Yarwyck's fear / prejudice that Borroq might marshal an army of wild boars to attack the NW is a silly one and reflects either / all of his fear and suspicion of the wildlings, his limited intellect and knowledge and his poor judgment.  That is something quite different.

It seems you are a hunter and have a particular impression of wild boars that leads you to confuse the two things but the reader is not meant to think Yarwyck is a polymath or greenseer who has spotted a threat to the NW that no one else has.  The reader is meant to think he is a prejudiced, ignorant or simply limited man.

If you really insist his view is a reasonable one then perhaps the NW should be mounting patrols to keep an eye out for suspicipous boar activity and have scouts looking for unusual concentrations of boars or unusually aggressive behaviour, perhaps they should even be engaging in boar hunts to cull the numbers of their savage and dangerous enemy.  Forget the White Walkers, it's the boars.  For every man of the Night's Watch guarding agasint the Others we need a man of the Boar Watch guarding against the fearsome tuskers.

Come on man, boars are dangerous animals, yes, but Yarwyck's concerns are silly and meant to make you shake your head and chuckle.

[LynnS]

17 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

Duuuuuuuude...........

No one is arguing that Yarwyck being cautious of a large dangerous wild animal is silly.

What we are saying is that Yarwyck's fear / prejudice that Borroq might marshal an army of wild boars to attack the NW is a silly one and reflects either / all of his fear and suspicion of the wildlings, his limited intellect and knowledge and his poor judgment.  That is something quite different.

It seems you are a hunter and have a particular impression of wild boars that leads you to confuse the two things but the reader is not meant to think Yarwyck is a polymath or greenseer who has spotted a threat to the NW that no one else has.  The reader is meant to think he is a prejudiced, ignorant or simply limited man.

If you really insist his view is a reasonable one then perhaps the NW should be mounting patrols to keep an eye out for suspicipous boar activity and have scouts looking for unusual concentrations of boars or unusually aggressive behaviour, perhaps they should even be engaging in boar hunts to cull the numbers of their savage and dangerous enemy.  Forget the White Walkers, it's the boars.  For every man of the Night's Watch guarding agasint the Others we need a man of the Boar Watch guarding against the fearsome tuskers.

Come on man, boars are dangerous animals, yes, but Yarwyck's concerns are silly and meant to make you shake your head and chuckle.

LOL! reductio ad absurdum

[Tagganaro]

23 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Duuuuuuuude...........

No one is arguing that Yarwyck being cautious of a large dangerous wild animal is silly.

What we are saying is that Yarwyck's fear / prejudice that Borroq might marshal an army of wild boars to attack the NW is a silly one and reflects either / all of his fear and suspicion of the wildlings, his limited intellect and knowledge and his poor judgment.  That is something quite different.

It seems you are a hunter and have a particular impression of wild boars that leads you to confuse the two things but the reader is not meant to think Yarwyck is a polymath or greenseer who has spotted a threat to the NW that no one else has.  The reader is meant to think he is a prejudiced, ignorant or simply limited man.

If you really insist his view is a reasonable one then perhaps the NW should be mounting patrols to keep an eye out for suspicipous boar activity and have scouts looking for unusual concentrations of boars or unusually aggressive behaviour, perhaps they should even be engaging in boar hunts to cull the numbers of their savage and dangerous enemy.  Forget the White Walkers, it's the boars.  For every man of the Night's Watch guarding agasint the Others we need a man of the Boar Watch guarding against the fearsome tuskers.

Come on man, boars are dangerous animals, yes, but Yarwyck's concerns are silly and meant to make you shake your head and chuckle.

Well said.  I couldn't agree more, this is clearly supposed to be a comedic touch that emphasizes the ignorance and prejudice of Yarwyck and the rest of the NW "leadership."  We have 5 novels now of Marsh and co. being described as sullen old men who are part of the reason the Watch is in the dire state it is in.  This is sort of a final coup de grace on Marsh and Yarwyck's ridiculousness.  I don't think anyone is disagreeing that boars are a dangerous animal, but again, the idea that one man could marshal an army of boars to threaten a military force is inherently ridiculous.

On 12/15/2017 at 9:22 PM, Widow's Watch said:

This is the kind of thing where I don't really know what foot to dance on. For me, it's the seal on the letter. This is the one thing that is described that we know for sure is completely different from the other two letters we have seen with Ramsay's letters. 

There might be some indication that Mance is behind it in Theon I, Dance. I just don't understand what his motivation would be. 

I'm very unclear whether Mance knew Arya was a fake, or not. Regardless, he seemed intent on carrying his plans out. I don't know why Ramsay would want Jeyne back. Once Jon sees the bride he will know exactly who she is and that Arya was never at Winterfell. And if this decisive battle is won, do the Boltons really need the girl? I'd think that it might be enough to bring the north to heel. 

I'm leaning towards a 3rd person who is inside Castle Black. And it falls on Mel because of the way she interprets her flames. We saw what she did with Renly because she messed up. And I don't mean that she intended on having Jon stabbed, but rather that she wanted him to go to Winterfell for some reason. But the hiccup with that is Reek. She wouldn't know about Reek anymore than Jon would.

It's a happy mess.

 

This describes the issues of the PL very well.  I am inclined to think that Mance has to know Arya is a fake- he was at Winterfell just a few years ago, and he specifically tells Jon that he was there in part observing all the Stark children, meaning he got a good look at Arya.  We know that Jaime Lannister is able to recognize Jeyne is not Arya right away.  While Jaime definitely spent more time on the journey back to King's Landing with Arya, I'd still think that there would be a similar recognition by Mance.  Having said that, if that's the case Mance's desperate use and sacrifice of the spearwives to try and get a fake Arya out of Winterfell doesn't quite make sense.  The only thing I could think of that matches up is if it was a desperation maneuver to try and create a distraction so Mance could accomplish whatever he really wanted to accomplish in Winterfell- as I have said previously I don't think for a second that Mance's primary objective in going to Winterfell was to rescue Arya.  He had already mentioned having a "certain ploy" in mind before he ever found out Arya wasn't at Long Lake. 

On 12/15/2017 at 8:48 PM, divica said:

There are some theories around about mance's agenda. Like when he introduces himself he says he is known to some as "the mance" which is a term used in the northern clans. Then add that when the NW asked for help no clan answered but when jon arranged alys marriage they appeared pretty fast and we have a possible mistery.

 

To me he can easily think that he found the horn of winter somewhere in winterfell and is using the PL to make jon bring an army of wildlings to winterfell. There he will anounce to them he found the horn and threaten jon to release the hostage wildlings and help him in his plans or he brings the Wall down and they all die. The army is there to protect mance from the rest of the northmen and make sure that if things go south (hehe) he can go to the wall and blow the horn (if he even needs to be near the Wall for it to work). Otherwise it would be pretty riskyIt could even tie up that there must always be a stark in winterfell because they have to protect the horn...

Yeah, definitely when you look into motives behind the PL the potential author with the most to gain is Mance.  Ramsay is not known for being smart and reacting rationally, but even if he did think Jon had "Arya" and Reek writing the PL is extraordinarily risky.  Ramsay certainly doesn't want to bring an army of wildlings to Winterfell which seems like an obvious potential consequence to the PL.  We know who does want a wildling army- Mance.  And it would also make sense for Mance to ask for Val and Monster and Selyse and Shireen to try and gain some independence from Melisandre.  Again though, there is no reason to ask for Reek in particular unless you are Ramsay.  So it's certainly confusing.

On 12/15/2017 at 8:35 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Oh I agree it's not true. That what if question was more like "What if I have drove myself crazy over this letter only to learn it is nothing more than what's on the surface. 

I go back & forth & around in circles on the author. 

What do you think maybe Mance's motive to write the letter? It seems whoever wrote it hoped to goad Jon into bringing an army to WF but could not ask him to do that for one reason or another. 

 

ETA: imagine Jon finding out the letter is a lie & Mance or someone other than Ramsay wrote it. 

"Mance you asshole! I literally died for that letter!" 

This bolded is the key thing as I discussed above.  Mance has the most motive outside of asking for Reek.  Ramsay has motive in his own sort of insane psychopathic way.  I definitely think joint authorship (Mance and Ramsay) or someone at Castle Black tampering with the letter is a major possibility.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On December 15, 2017 at 5:10 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Interesting. I don't know & all it does is bring back to mind that damnable pink letter. Is Mance caught or not caught? If he is not who wants to pretend he is? What does the author of the PL have to gain & what motives are behind writing it?

What if Ramsay really did write it & everything he says is true? It can't be though. Can it? 

You know even if Jon had no idea that Mance would storm winterfell like he'd done before  with the spear wives(never mind, the need for spear wears women who are geared for battle as much as any man), he still acted a bloody fucking idiot to even try to go get her in the first place, she's Ramsey's property now, whatever cruelty the bastard wants to inflict upon the girl Jon thinks is his little sister isn't his concern.

He placed the interest of *one* girl over the lives of everyone under his command as well the lives everyone in Westeroes in general.

He acted selfishly.

Hes not perfect a leader or soldier in general.

He allows his moral baggage to get in the way of accomplishing the greater good.

As a result of his selfishness, Ramsey has sufficient justification for outright taking Jon's head.

And, to just throw a heap of gasoline on the house fire, Jon decided to March a wildling horde to winterfell by all appearances to rescue Mance Rayder, turn coat whose lead the wildlings  to slaughter good peachful Northeren folk and conquer the north.

 

Basiclh insuring the watch would be destroyed in retaliation.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

54 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

You know even if Jon had no idea that Mance would storm winterfell like he'd done before  with the spear wives(never mind, the need for spear wears women who are geared for battle as much as any man), he still acted a bloody fucking idiot to even try to go get her in the first place, she's Ramsey's property now, whatever cruelty the bastard wants to inflict upon the girl Jon thinks is his little sister isn't his concern.

He placed the interest of *one* girl over the lives of everyone under his command as well the lives everyone in Westeroes in general.

He acted selfishly.

Hes not perfect a leader or soldier in general.

He allows his moral baggage to get in the way of accomplishing the greater good.

As a result of his selfishness, Ramsey has sufficient justification for outright taking Jon's head.

And, to just throw a heap of gasoline on the house fire, Jon decided to March a wildling horde to winterfell by all appearances to rescue Mance Rayder, turn coat whose lead the wildlings  to slaughter good peachful Northeren folk and conquer the north.

 

Basiclh insuring the watch would be destroyed in retaliation.

If you are gonna try & bait me you have to at least quote me saying something in regards to what you are baiting me with. 'A' for effort though. 

ETA: and I do believe it was Renly who was peachful. Not the Northmen. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

10 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Well said.  I couldn't agree more, this is clearly supposed to be a comedic touch that emphasizes the ignorance and prejudice of Yarwyck and the rest of the NW "leadership."  We have 5 novels now of Marsh and co. being described as sullen old men who are part of the reason the Watch is in the dire state it is in.  This is sort of a final coup de grace on Marsh and Yarwyck's ridiculousness.  I don't think anyone is disagreeing that boars are a dangerous animal, but again, the idea that one man could marshal an army of boars to threaten a military force is inherently ridiculous.

This describes the issues of the PL very well.  I am inclined to think that Mance has to know Arya is a fake- he was at Winterfell just a few years ago, and he specifically tells Jon that he was there in part observing all the Stark children, meaning he got a good look at Arya.  We know that Jaime Lannister is able to recognize Jeyne is not Arya right away.  While Jaime definitely spent more time on the journey back to King's Landing with Arya, I'd still think that there would be a similar recognition by Mance.  Having said that, if that's the case Mance's desperate use and sacrifice of the spearwives to try and get a fake Arya out of Winterfell doesn't quite make sense.  The only thing I could think of that matches up is if it was a desperation maneuver to try and create a distraction so Mance could accomplish whatever he really wanted to accomplish in Winterfell- as I have said previously I don't think for a second that Mance's primary objective in going to Winterfell was to rescue Arya.  He had already mentioned having a "certain ploy" in mind before he ever found out Arya wasn't at Long Lake. 

Yeah, definitely when you look into motives behind the PL the potential author with the most to gain is Mance.  Ramsay is not known for being smart and reacting rationally, but even if he did think Jon had "Arya" and Reek writing the PL is extraordinarily risky.  Ramsay certainly doesn't want to bring an army of wildlings to Winterfell which seems like an obvious potential consequence to the PL.  We know who does want a wildling army- Mance.  And it would also make sense for Mance to ask for Val and Monster and Selyse and Shireen to try and gain some independence from Melisandre.  Again though, there is no reason to ask for Reek in particular unless you are Ramsay.  So it's certainly confusing.

This bolded is the key thing as I discussed above.  Mance has the most motive outside of asking for Reek.  Ramsay has motive in his own sort of insane psychopathic way.  I definitely think joint authorship (Mance and Ramsay) or someone at Castle Black tampering with the letter is a major possibility.

I agree Mance has the best motive but I'm not sold he wrote it. 

I like the idea of Stannis writing it but just can't see him being a part of something so deceitful. 

Regardless of the author it seems to me the objective was to get a wildling army to WF with or without Jon. 

[LynnS]

6 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

If you are gonna try & bait me you have to at least quote me saying something in regards to what you are baiting me with. 'A' for effort though. 

ETA: and I do believe it was Renly who was peachful. Not the Northmen. 

Moral baggage?  LOL!  Here's what you do to people with no moral baggage:

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 12/15/2017 at 9:22 PM, Widow's Watch said:

This is the kind of thing where I don't really know what foot to dance on. For me, it's the seal on the letter. This is the one thing that is described that we know for sure is completely different from the other two letters we have seen with Ramsay's letters. 

There might be some indication that Mance is behind it in Theon I, Dance. I just don't understand what his motivation would be. 

I'm very unclear whether Mance knew Arya was a fake, or not. Regardless, he seemed intent on carrying his plans out. I don't know why Ramsay would want Jeyne back. Once Jon sees the bride he will know exactly who she is and that Arya was never at Winterfell. And if this decisive battle is won, do the Boltons really need the girl? I'd think that it might be enough to bring the north to heel. 

I'm leaning towards a 3rd person who is inside Castle Black. And it falls on Mel because of the way she interprets her flames. We saw what she did with Renly because she messed up. And I don't mean that she intended on having Jon stabbed, but rather that she wanted him to go to Winterfell for some reason. But the hiccup with that is Reek. She wouldn't know about Reek anymore than Jon would.

It's a happy mess.

 

A happy mess in deed. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Mance knows Arya is fake. Possibly he recognized her. Most curious is that he does indeed carry out the plan. He could have just as easily returned after carrying out his own ploy, whatever that is, & told Jon it was the wrong girl. Ramsay may want her back for the same reason he wants Reek back. He has lost someone to torment. 

As if the whole thing isn't convoluted enough we throw Mel in there & the possibility that the letter was tampered with & we have a whole slew of suspects each more or less as likely as the next. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

4 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Moral baggage?  LOL!  Here's what you do to people with no moral baggage:

 

Love it! 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

If you are gonna try & bait me you have to at least quote me saying something in regards to what you are baiting me with. 'A' for effort though. 

ETA: and I do believe it was Renly who was peachful. Not the Northmen. 

Not trying to bait you.

Just pointing out any defense "well Jon just sent the uber stealthy Mance along with some women who are skilled in fighting to pick up Arya" doesn't actually make it so that Jon had acted in anyone's best interest but his and who he thought was Arya

The girl is Ramsey's property and risking the Bolton's ire for the sake of *one* girl was selfish on Jon's part.

Hes a terrible leader quite frankly.

Also, I did cite the wrong quote from you to respond to. I apologize for that.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

Moral baggage?  LOL!  Here's what you do to people with no moral baggage:

 

Yeah, moral baggage.

Jon is putting his own familial attachments above the lives of everyone under his command and the lives of Westeroes in general.

I'm not chasing Jon for having morals I'm chastizing him for allowing the guilt he feels of letting Ramsey have who he thinks is Arya to blind him to the bigger picture.

Arya is simply not worth it.

Thats sad, and cold but Jon swore off any sort of loyalty to anything outside the watch, Arya is not his responsibility the preservation of the watch is.

[LynnS]

25 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah, moral baggage.

Jon is putting his own familial attachments above the lives of everyone under his command and the lives of Westeroes in general.

I'm not chasing Jon for having morals I'm chastizing him for allowing the guilt he feels of letting Ramsey have who he thinks is Arya to blind him to the bigger picture.

Arya is simply not worth it.

Thats sad, and cold but Jon swore off any sort of loyalty to anything outside the watch, Arya is not his responsibility the preservation of the watch is.

I don't have a problem with Jon or anyone else taking out that creepy psychopath Ramsey.  The sooner the better.  To hell with the vows.  The only thing evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing.  The problem isn't Jon's moral baggage; it's the Watch's morality deficit disorder.

When an evil fucker like Ramsey threatens the LC and the Watch, backing down is not an option.  That's the big picture for which Jon's love of Arya or his obligation to protect the women already under his care are but details.

[Varysblackfyre321]

48 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I don't have a problem with Jon or anyone else taking out that creepy psychopath Ramsey.  The sooner the better.  To hell with the vows.  The only thing evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing.  The problem isn't Jon's moral baggage; it's the Watch's morality deficit disorder.

When an evil fucker like Ramsey threatens the LC and the Watch, backing down is not an option.  That's the big picture for which Jon's love of Arya or his obligation to protect the women already under his care are but details.

The *only* reason Ramsey even issued the threat in the first place was response to Jon getting his savages to steal his property.

Jon by trying to save her puts in jepordary the lives of the thousands of wildling refugees he's trying to shelter, the brotherhood, and humanity in general.

The oaths are there for good reason.

The watch cannot function if each member is fixating over past familial grievances with each other, or getting more land to hoard or glory.

Their devotion to the mission of protecting the realms of men must come first and foremost.

You don't think a lot of men in the watch have family members who need them?

Those men have brothers, sisters, sons and daughters, that could be endanger each day these men wake up to perform their duties.

They don't get to put their famial attachments above the order.

You don't think Aemon was tempted to seek out Viserys and Dany and restore his family's dynasty?

Of course he did.

But he swore to something higher than family; protecting the realms of men.

Jon swore these oaths too.

No one forced him.

There was no dagger to his neck when he recited his oaths.

He knew what he was signing.

He should hold himself to a different standard than any of the men who also swore the oaths.

If a crow had a sister who needed him Jon would put the mission over that man's feelings and say the crow must stay.

 

Again, Jon was acting selfish.

Hes proving to be a terrible leader.