“For the watch”

[Tagganaro]

On 11/7/2017 at 11:10 AM, Walda said:

But it is Bowen Marsh that makes me suspect that this plot against Jon was prepared a long time ago. GRRM invites us to under-rate Bowen Marsh, through Mance, and Ed Tollett, and Cotter Pyke,  in just the same way as JonCon under-rates Homeless Harry, and in spite of his chasing the weeper all the way west of the shadow tower, and winning a bloody battle (strategically, playing to Mance's strengths, but he shows himself a competent and brave battle commander in this, and in the state in which he left Castle Black - lacking nothing but men, which they all knew were in short supply).

First off I just want to say well done Walda.  Really appreciate you putting everything down like that even if I disagree with you.  Are we under-rating Marsh or just rating him exactly where he is and deserves to be ranked?  He is an able steward and in his own way a brave loyal NW brother, but I would say there's no evidence he's anything more than that.  Not just the guys you mention, but Jeor Mormont is also dismissive of him calling him a tired old man unfit to rule while lamenting the state of the Night's Watch.  I think competence might be overstating things as well- he completely falls for Mance's feint as Mance knew he would and causes the deaths and injuries of a lot of NW brothers, including his own.  

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Bowen Marsh is the person who has been corresponding with the Lannisters, he is the one that knew that 'fondest regards for my faithful friend and servant' meant "Janos Slynt or Else". He was the psephologist that organised Janos Slynt's campaign - part of his purpose in leaving Castle Black was to give Janos the place of Castellan, to give the dimmer conservatives the notion that Janos was naturally their leader, and the brighter ones the chance to see the sky did not fall in, associating the new guy with incumbency and the status quo, which are by definition the preference of the uncertain conservative.) Just as he is the only one with the wherewithal to make Janos Acting Lord Commander, he is the only one really qualified to organise the 'else', too. He is deliberate man. He isn't a visionary, but he can do the math, and is a competent administrator. He is also a liar, or at least, a capable misrepresenter of the truth -there is more to the food stores that what Bowen Marsh has chosen to share with Jon, for example. Bowen Marsh has been at the wall a long time,  Othell Yarwyck and Three-Finger Hobb, men in critical roles on the wall, know he is a smart one and listen to what he says. 

I think this is an important point to note- Marsh is a very politically-aware brother of the NW and is clearly predisposed to support the Lannisters over the Baratheons.  I do think the fact that he corresponds with the Crown is vital to explaining his actions, as well as his plotting in ASOS.

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Bowen Marsh is the only one of them that seems to have above ordinary abilities (I guess that is partly because any recruit that shows a valued kind of skill or talent, ends up in the rangers or the builders. The stewards take the butter-churners and the snow-shovellers). Hatred of the Wildlings (and in particular the Weeper) seems a dependably fixed motive for him (and for Alf, after the weeper took out Garth's eyes).

Another important point to note- Marsh is described as a changed man after his bloody encounter with the Weeper...this is not the same Marsh that is described in AGOT.  He has lost a lot of weight and if I recall correctly, is described as haggard-looking after returning to Castle Black.  I think what the Weeper did to him explains a lot of his extreme hatred towards the wildlings, something that I'd posit did not exist nearly to that level prior to the Bridge of Skulls.

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Apart from the Giant going ape (which might have been part of the plan - Bowen's cronies are mostly titled men, his currency is influence. His being a Lannister pawn would not make him less keen to know Stannis's men, many of whom have swung from Renly to Stannis already) and the cold rising (which I don't think Bowen took into account), immediately after Jon Snow's galvanising speech was a great time to strike. All the Night's Watch have been sorely provoked. Jon Snow has just sent them to Hardhome, where none of them want to go, on a suicide mission, when none of them want to die and become wights, to rescue wildlings that none of them want to save. And he won't be going with them because he has a gripe about some other bastard that is marrying his sister.

Wun-Wun doesn't just go ape apropos of nothing and I don't think we need to read conspiracies into stuff that is easily explained throughout ADWD.  The Queen's Men such as Ser Patrek are obsessed with Val- not only do they see her beauty but they continue to mistakenly believe that by marrying her they will gain control over the wildlings.  Shortly before Jon's assassination, Selyse informs Jon that Ser Patrek is to marry Val- Jon responds that it is customary among the wildlings to steal women in front of Ser Patrek.  I believe that is basically what happens- Ser Patrek tries to steal Val who is being guarded by Wun-Wun and that's it.  This just provided an opportune distraction for Marsh and Wick and the other co-conspirators to quickly attack Jon, something I believe they literally just decided the second before on doing.

And yes, I again agree that the double whammy of the Hardhome mission and Jon marching on Winterfell provokes a suicide response from Bowen marsh, not a pre-planned assassination.

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Ever since he became Lord Commander, Jon has become more distant and withdrawn from the men - he doesn't sit by the fire and eat with them (as Eddard used to, with his men). He cuts them unnecessarily (for instance when Mully offers "Summer friends will melt away like summer snows, but winter friends are friends forever.”, or when he hammers Iron Emmett while the guy is yielding). He has his reasons for becoming colder, sterner. He is trying to 'kill the boy'. But as he grows more distant from the men he commands, sending the ones he most likes and trusts the furthest away, he also grows closer to the wildlings. And the Red Woman. And Stannis. And less and less inclined to tolerate his brothers' ignorance and stupidity. The stewards don't need to be warged. They have motive enough.

Iron Emmett loves sword-play and didn't seem to mind the incident with Jon- regardless we are essentially given that the rangers (probably including Emmett) largely support Jon while the stewards and builders do not.  Mully is an interesting case as I've mentioned above since Ghost tried to bite his fingers off on the day of the assassination according to Mully.

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If they were being warged, who are they being warged by? Bran regards himself as some kind of uber-warg for being able to warg Hodor. All the wildling wargs, who meet together and share knowledge, know that you don't warg human beings, and it would seem from Varamyr's experience that it is quite a feat to grab even a lungful of breath from another human being. Varamyr considered himself an uber-warg for being able to warg three wolves, and a shadowcat, and a bear, and an eagle, a feat that nobody he knew or knew of had equalled. He could also warg more than one beast at a time, and keep his human form concious, telling Mance what his eagle could see, while warging it. Bran's boy self loses conciousness when he wargs Summer or Hodor.

So if it was, say Borroq, it seems to me it's a pretty big step, from warging a single boar, to warging at least four human beings. And what does Borroq have against Jon Snow, anyway?

I agree with this but I continue to also be a bit puzzled by Wick's reaction to Jon stopping his stabbing attempt.  The "it wasn't me" response just seems odd but I am inclined to agree I guess that it was just a cowardly reaction on Wick's part and nothing more.

I also agree there's no way Borroq is involved- the wildlings in general are pretty loyal to Jon as they have good reason to be, and while there seems to be some kind of animosity between Borroq's boars and Ghost, I don't see that being enough to cause him to attempt something like this.  There's just no motive there.

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Oh dear. Where to start...

You could have just left it at that  but I appreciate your well-detailed and thought-out response to some of these obvious troll attempts.

[Wild Bill]

17 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Sandkings is a perfect archetype for Daenerys plot in the story. She is the new Simon Kress. 

Ooh, that's a bit disturbing, as it means that Dany dies at the hands (or whatever) of her dragons...

I like to think of Dany dying, as she and the dragons must imo, as she intrepidly sorties repeated dragon strikes against the undead from besieged Winterfell, while Lady Sansa declaims to her subjects "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." as published in A Dream of Spring - after which, GRRM reveals that the series is not done. He feels two more books are necessary.

His eighth book, "The Trials of Casterly Rock", held in the eponymous location, where Judge Varys oversees a "truth and reconciliation" process, but not before some stern justice. Cercei commits suicide (by taking Essence of Nightshade). Jamie gets a life sentence, later commuted to 10 years, and then pardoned so he could look after his, delightful, daughter, Mary - the product of his unnatural union with Cercei. Tyrion gets 20 years, but is reduced to a severe reprimand, and he is required to avoid his kin (that he willfully disobeys bringing clever gifts to Mary, crafted by his great friend Ser Davos). Little Finger pleads that he was an unknowing pawn in the larger game and gets 20 years, commuted to three years, and is now a well respected importer of spices and such to Westeros. Meanwhile, Qyburn, escapes justice to Essos for some time before being run to ground, many years later, by Arya and her "friends". After the, suitable, show trial he is condemned to death and hanged.

His ninth book is a bit provisional, but at talks at the most recent WorldCon, GRRM revealed that bot technology is very liberating and that his working title is "Edinburgh in the Spring". He indicated that "we'll always have Edinburgh', and he expected a very quick turnaround for this book, that includes amongst other things, details about Little Finger's financial success, and Lord Vary's upcoming memoir. Not to mention some really interesting business ventures between Little Finger and Gendry. Well, we can only hope...

Oopsie, a little off the tracks here.  @Walda, very good post.

Cheers and all that...

[H Wadsworth Longfellow]

Hi Richard

I do not believe those men were being skin-changed when they assassinated Jon Snow.  Mind control on a human is not easy.  We only have to look at what happened with Sixskins.  Bowen is an intelligent man and he is not simple like Hodor.  So controlling him is not possible.  Controlling multiple people adds another level of difficulty.  I also do not see any reason to  assume that the men were being controlled.  What they did is reasonable and logical when you consider what Jon Snow was about to do.  I would go out on the limb and even say Samwell would have joined Bowen Marsh if he had been present. 

[H Wadsworth Longfellow]

On 11/6/2017 at 7:19 AM, The Drunkard said:

He didn't actually send Mance to Winterfell. I believe the original plan was for Mance to nab Arya after she had fled into NW territory, which is arguably an ok thing for the Watch to do. But Mance for w/e reason journeyed onto Winterfell and got involved of his own volition (or on Mel's orders).

But I agree on the perception, no one but Melisandre and Jon (and maybe Stannis) have the above information. As far as anyone else knows, Jon helped spare someone entirely deserving of death to make illegal use of him for personal reasons, which confirms the perception that he's abusing his LC powers to help his family and hurt their enemies.

Jon sent Mance Rayder on a mission to get his sister away from Ramsay.  That means Mance is to get the job done wherever Arya happens to be.  Do you honestly think Jon would hesitate if he knew Arya was still with Ramsay?  Jon was willing to do anything to get Arya and that includes breaking whatever laws, customs, vows, and traditions are standing in the way.  Jon had gone crazy and he was no longer thinking about the big picture.  He was consumed with thoughts of Arya and became a liability that had to be removed. 

[The Drunkard]

1 hour ago, Casca Longinus said:

Jon sent Mance Rayder on a mission to get his sister away from Ramsay.  That means Mance is to get the job done wherever Arya happens to be.  Do you honestly think Jon would hesitate if he knew Arya was still with Ramsay?  Jon was willing to do anything to get Arya and that includes breaking whatever laws, customs, vows, and traditions are standing in the way.  Jon had gone crazy and he was no longer thinking about the big picture.  He was consumed with thoughts of Arya and became a liability that had to be removed. 

Jon didn't send him. Mance was a prisoner of Stannis and it was Melisandre who sent him south to grab Arya as a favour to Jon in an effort to gain his trust. Jon's involvement was essentially "ok, I'll let you do that", which is arguably shirking his duty given Mance is an oathbreaker and an invader, but then again if the king has forgiven that, who is the Lord Commander to disagree?

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

3 hours ago, Casca Longinus said:

Hi Richard

I do not believe those men were being skin-changed when they assassinated Jon Snow.  Mind control on a human is not easy.  We only have to look at what happened with Sixskins.  Bowen is an intelligent man and he is not simple like Hodor.  So controlling him is not possible.  Controlling multiple people adds another level of difficulty.  I also do not see any reason to  assume that the men were being controlled.  What they did is reasonable and logical when you consider what Jon Snow was about to do.  I would go out on the limb and even say Samwell would have joined Bowen Marsh if he had been present. 

Nonsense. Sam most definitely, beyond a shadow of a doubt would not have joined. I'll agree Bowen felt as if what he was doing was logical & reasonable nut not that everyone, especially not Jon's best friend will see it that way - which is obvious by the dispute on the forums in regards to Jon & Marshs decisions. 

 

3 hours ago, Casca Longinus said:

Jon sent Mance Rayder on a mission to get his sister away from Ramsay.  That means Mance is to get the job done wherever Arya happens to be.  Do you honestly think Jon would hesitate if he knew Arya was still with Ramsay?  Jon was willing to do anything to get Arya and that includes breaking whatever laws, customs, vows, and traditions are standing in the way.  Jon had gone crazy and he was no longer thinking about the big picture.  He was consumed with thoughts of Arya and became a liability that had to be removed. 

Well no. For starters fArya was no longer in Ramsay's possession so she couldn't be taken from him. Furthermore Jon sent Mance no where - which has been repeated & evidenced by the text again & again in this thread & many others. Lastly, Mance was sent to find a fleeing fArya from NW/neutral territory, not to WF to steal her away. 

I don't think Jon would hesitate if Arya was still with Ramsay, I know, & so do you because when Jon found out Arya was be married to Ramsay he did nothing. Not a single thing. He didn't cut Mance down when Mel was sending him to find Arya but there was no clear cut correct decision there either as Mance was a prisoner of the rightful King of Westeros. 

Show me any textual evidence to indicate Jon was consumed with thoughts of Arya. There is none. He thinks of her a couple times, yes, but that is hardly being consumed & not against the laws or vows of the NW to think of a sister in peril. 

If your stance is that what Jon intended to do regarding Ramsay is vow breaking - fine. I disagree but I understand why this is arguable. But the nonsense about Arya is not arguable. Jon states the reasons he intends to go after Ramsay & never in his speech to the men of the NW nor in his inner thoughts does he think of Arya as a reason. 

I see this "Jon sent Mance to steal Arya" parroted in this thread & when it is presented with actual textual evidence to the contrary the poster just repeats the same again. So I ask you: What say you to the evidence that contradicts your claims? 

[The Fattest Leech]

5 hours ago, Casca Longinus said:

Jon sent Mance Rayder on a mission to get his sister away from Ramsay.  That means Mance is to get the job done wherever Arya happens to be.  Do you honestly think Jon would hesitate if he knew Arya was still with Ramsay?  Jon was willing to do anything to get Arya and that includes breaking whatever laws, customs, vows, and traditions are standing in the way.  Jon had gone crazy and he was no longer thinking about the big picture.  He was consumed with thoughts of Arya and became a liability that had to be removed. 

Except, what you just said is factually incorrect. Seven chapters before the mutiny, when Jon is presented with the wedding invite for Ramsay to fArya, Jon is informed #1 that she is still alive, which thoroughly shocks him since he thought Arya has been dead since Ned was killed (and he still did not run out for revenge), and that #2 she will marry Ramsay and he does nothing about it expect think it will end with Arya stabbing Ramsay. In either thought, Jon does not run out and "go crazy" to try and break laws by abducting Ramsay's "wife"... which by the way, that union is not lawful at all because everyone from Tywin  (the Crown), Jaime, Cersei, Brienne, Lady Dustin, and every other northerner at Winterfell is NOT Arya. It is a mummer's farce and therefore not legal.

• Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, it read, in a huge, spiky hand. The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb. Beneath Bolton's signature, Lord Dustin, Lady Cerwyn, and four Ryswells had appended their own marks and seals. A cruder hand had drawn the giant of House Umber. "Might we know what it says, my lord?" asked Iron Emmett.

  Jon saw no reason not to tell him. "Moat Cailin is taken. The flayed corpses of the ironmen have been nailed to posts along the kingsroad. Roose Bolton summons all leal lords to Barrowton, to affirm their loyalty to the Iron Throne and celebrate his son's wedding to …" His heart seemed to stop for a moment. No, that is not possible. She died in King's Landing, with Father.
• "He's to marry Arya Stark. My little sister." Jon could almost see her in that moment, long-faced and gawky, all knobby knees and sharp elbows, with her dirty face and tangled hair. They would wash the one and comb the other, he did not doubt, but he could not imagine Arya in a wedding gown, nor Ramsay Bolton's bed. No matter how afraid she is, she will not show it. If he tries to lay a hand on her, she'll fight him.
  "Your sister," Iron Emmett said, "how old is …"
• Jon felt as stiff as a man of sixty years. Dark dreams, he thought, and guilt. His thoughts kept returning to Arya. There is no way I can help her. I put all kin aside when I said my words. If one of my men told me his sister was in peril, I would tell him that was no concern of his. Once a man had said the words his blood was black. Black as a bastard's heart. He'd had Mikken make a sword for Arya once, a bravo's blade, made small to fit her hand. Needle. He wondered if she still had it. Stick them with the pointy end, he'd told her, but if she tried to stick the Bastard, it could mean her life.

  "Snow," muttered Lord Mormont's raven. "Snow, snow."

And you are also forgetting (ignoring?) the fact that IF Arya showed up, then Jon knows she could not stay at CB and that she would have to be sent away, most likely across the sea. So, nope, Jon is not trying to covet Arya either.

[The Fattest Leech]

1 hour ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Nonsense. Sam most definitely, beyond a shadow of a doubt would not have joined. I'll agree Bowen felt as if what he was doing was logical & reasonable nut not that everyone, especially not Jon's best friend will see it that way - which is obvious by the dispute on the forums in regards to Jon & Marshs decisions. 

 

Well no. For starters fArya was no longer in Ramsay's possession so she couldn't be taken from him. Furthermore Jon sent Mance no where - which has been repeated & evidenced by the text again & again in this thread & many others. Lastly, Mance was sent to find a fleeing fArya from NW/neutral territory, not to WF to steal her away. 

I don't think Jon would hesitate if Arya was still with Ramsay, I know, & so do you because when Jon found out Arya was be married to Ramsay he did nothing. Not a single thing. He didn't cut Mance down when Mel was sending him to find Arya but there was no clear cut correct decision there either as Mance was a prisoner of the rightful King of Westeros. 

Show me any textual evidence to indicate Jon was consumed with thoughts of Arya. There is none. He thinks of her a couple times, yes, but that is hardly being consumed & not against the laws or vows of the NW to think of a sister in peril. 

If your stance is that what Jon intended to do regarding Ramsay is vow breaking - fine. I disagree but I understand why this is arguable. But the nonsense about Arya is not arguable. Jon states the reasons he intends to go after Ramsay & never in his speech to the men of the NW nor in his inner thoughts does he think of Arya as a reason. 

I see this "Jon sent Mance to steal Arya" parroted in this thread & when it is presented with actual textual evidence to the contrary the poster just repeats the same again. So I ask you: What say you to the evidence that contradicts your claims? 

A lot of truth here.

 

Regarding if Sam would join the mutiny, I agree that there is no way he would. Jon protected Sam when he arrived at CB, Sam did his part in the elections, and Sam never considered Jon a turncloak (like Slynt, Thorne, and Co did) when Jon followed Qhorin's orders north of the wall.

It is, after all, from a Sam POV that we have the first glimpses that history as it is known and told in-world is incorrect. Sam is the one sent to the books at Castle Black to find out the historical truths to the tales and legends (and reports many times to Jon about true history), and then he is sent to the Citadel... where he will become Sam the Slayer of Citadel Lies!!!! (hopefully)

Samwell has been set up as the one to help set history and rumors straight:

A Storm of Swords - Samwell II

"We never knew . . ."

"We never knew! But we must have known once. The Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose, Tarly. You don't build a wall seven hundred feet high to keep savages in skins from stealing women. The Wall was made to guard the realms of men . . . and not against other men, which is all the wildlings are when you come right down to it. Too many years, Tarly, too many hundreds and thousands of years. We lost sight of the true enemy. And now he's here, but we don't know how to fight him. Is dragonglass made by dragons, as the smallfolk like to say?"

 

A Storm of Swords - Samwell IV

It was a good hour before he could excuse himself to feed the ravens. On the way up to the rookery, he stopped to check the tally he had made of last night's count. At the start of the choosing, more than thirty names had been offered, but most had withdrawn once it became clear they could not win. Seven remained as of last night. Ser Denys Mallister had collected two hundred and thirteen tokens, Cotter Pyke one hundred and eighty-seven, Lord Slynt seventy-four, Othell Yarwyck sixty, Bowen Marsh forty-nine, Three-Finger Hobb five, and Dolorous Edd Tollett one. Pyp and his stupid japes. Sam shuffled through the earlier counts. Ser Denys, Cotter Pyke, and Bowen Marsh had all been falling since the third day, Othell Yarwyck since the sixth. Only Lord Janos Slynt was climbing, day after day after day.

He could hear the birds quorking in the rookery, so he put the papers away and climbed the steps to feed them. Three more ravens had come in, he saw with pleasure. "Snow," they cried at him. "Snow, snow, snow." He had taught them that. Even with the newcomers, the ravenry seemed dismally empty. Few of the birds that Aemon had sent off had returned as yet. One reached Stannis, though. One found Dragonstone, and a king who still cared. A thousand leagues south, Sam knew, his father had joined House Tarly to the cause of the boy on the Iron Throne, but neither King Joffrey nor little King Tommen had bestirred himself when the Watch cried out for help. What good is a king who will not defend his realm? he thought angrily, remembering the night on the Fist of the First Men and the terrible trek to Craster's Keep through darkness, fear, and falling snow. The queen's men made him uneasy, it was true, but at least they had come.

 

[Tagganaro]

30 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

A lot of truth here.

 

Regarding if Sam would join the mutiny, I agree that there is no way he would. Jon protected Sam when he arrived at CB, Sam did his part in the elections, and Sam never considered Jon a turncloak (like Slynt, Thorne, and Co did) when Jon followed Qhorin's orders north of the wall.

It is, after all, from a Sam POV that we have the first glimpses that history as it is known and told in-world is incorrect. Sam is the one sent to the books at Castle Black to find out the historical truths to the tales and legends (and reports many times to Jon about true history), and then he is sent to the Citadel... where he will become Sam the Slayer of Citadel Lies!!!! (hopefully)

Samwell has been set up as the one to help set history and rumors straight:

A Storm of Swords - Samwell II

"We never knew . . ."

"We never knew! But we must have known once. The Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose, Tarly. You don't build a wall seven hundred feet high to keep savages in skins from stealing women. The Wall was made to guard the realms of men . . . and not against other men, which is all the wildlings are when you come right down to it. Too many years, Tarly, too many hundreds and thousands of years. We lost sight of the true enemy. And now he's here, but we don't know how to fight him. Is dragonglass made by dragons, as the smallfolk like to say?"

 

A Storm of Swords - Samwell IV

It was a good hour before he could excuse himself to feed the ravens. On the way up to the rookery, he stopped to check the tally he had made of last night's count. At the start of the choosing, more than thirty names had been offered, but most had withdrawn once it became clear they could not win. Seven remained as of last night. Ser Denys Mallister had collected two hundred and thirteen tokens, Cotter Pyke one hundred and eighty-seven, Lord Slynt seventy-four, Othell Yarwyck sixty, Bowen Marsh forty-nine, Three-Finger Hobb five, and Dolorous Edd Tollett one. Pyp and his stupid japes. Sam shuffled through the earlier counts. Ser Denys, Cotter Pyke, and Bowen Marsh had all been falling since the third day, Othell Yarwyck since the sixth. Only Lord Janos Slynt was climbing, day after day after day.

He could hear the birds quorking in the rookery, so he put the papers away and climbed the steps to feed them. Three more ravens had come in, he saw with pleasure. "Snow," they cried at him. "Snow, snow, snow." He had taught them that. Even with the newcomers, the ravenry seemed dismally empty. Few of the birds that Aemon had sent off had returned as yet. One reached Stannis, though. One found Dragonstone, and a king who still cared. A thousand leagues south, Sam knew, his father had joined House Tarly to the cause of the boy on the Iron Throne, but neither King Joffrey nor little King Tommen had bestirred himself when the Watch cried out for help. What good is a king who will not defend his realm? he thought angrily, remembering the night on the Fist of the First Men and the terrible trek to Craster's Keep through darkness, fear, and falling snow. The queen's men made him uneasy, it was true, but at least they had come.

 

Not only is the idea that Sam would have supported the mutiny laughably insane, but I love you putting down Mormont's epiphany before he is assassinated.  Not only would Sam have supported Jon's plans, but Mormont would too.  I think there is something really tragic about Mormont's death that I wonder about hypothetically- Had Mormont made it back to the Wall, I imagine he would go about doing things exactly the way Jon eventually went about it.  When you think about sort of that mirror funhouse version of Janos Slynt sending Jon to "treat" with Mance, I think Mormont would have done the same only he would have been genuine about it and not sending Jon out there to either kill Mance or die himself or both.  And then I just wonder how much of it is perception- because there is a perception of Jon as a warg and half-wildling himself, racists like Marsh are prone to seeing ulterior motives behind Jon allowing the wildlings through.  I think Mormont would have done the same and been a much better person to do so.

[The Commentator]

1 hour ago, Tagganaro said:

Not only is the idea that Sam would have supported the mutiny laughably insane, but I love you putting down Mormont's epiphany before he is assassinated.  Not only would Sam have supported Jon's plans, but Mormont would too.  I think there is something really tragic about Mormont's death that I wonder about hypothetically- Had Mormont made it back to the Wall, I imagine he would go about doing things exactly the way Jon eventually went about it.  When you think about sort of that mirror funhouse version of Janos Slynt sending Jon to "treat" with Mance, I think Mormont would have done the same only he would have been genuine about it and not sending Jon out there to either kill Mance or die himself or both.  And then I just wonder how much of it is perception- because there is a perception of Jon as a warg and half-wildling himself, racists like Marsh are prone to seeing ulterior motives behind Jon allowing the wildlings through.  I think Mormont would have done the same and been a much better person to do so.

I can see Samwell standing in front of the horses and putting his own body on the line in an effort to prevent his mad lord commander from riding to war with the Boltons.  Jon was completely wrong in all that he did with regards to taking Arya away from Ramsay.  I doubt that would have stopped Jon.  Jon was hellbent on getting Arya no matter the consequence.  

7 hours ago, Casca Longinus said:

Jon sent Mance Rayder on a mission to get his sister away from Ramsay.  That means Mance is to get the job done wherever Arya happens to be.  Do you honestly think Jon would hesitate if he knew Arya was still with Ramsay?  Jon was willing to do anything to get Arya and that includes breaking whatever laws, customs, vows, and traditions are standing in the way.  Jon had gone crazy and he was no longer thinking about the big picture.  He was consumed with thoughts of Arya and became a liability that had to be removed. 

Yup.  Jon was not going to let anything or anyone prevent him from taking Arya from Ramsay.  Jon is the one responsible for all the tragedy that resulted from that mission.  Bowen is right and Jon is wrong.  

[The Commentator]

1 hour ago, Tagganaro said:

Not only is the idea that Sam would have supported the mutiny laughably insane, but I love you putting down Mormont's epiphany before he is assassinated.  Not only would Sam have supported Jon's plans, but Mormont would too.  I think there is something really tragic about Mormont's death that I wonder about hypothetically- Had Mormont made it back to the Wall, I imagine he would go about doing things exactly the way Jon eventually went about it.  When you think about sort of that mirror funhouse version of Janos Slynt sending Jon to "treat" with Mance, I think Mormont would have done the same only he would have been genuine about it and not sending Jon out there to either kill Mance or die himself or both.  And then I just wonder how much of it is perception- because there is a perception of Jon as a warg and half-wildling himself, racists like Marsh are prone to seeing ulterior motives behind Jon allowing the wildlings through.  I think Mormont would have done the same and been a much better person to do so.

Mormont is not going to send a wildling criminal to take away Ramsay Bolton's wife.  No lord commander, not even the famous Night's King, would have done something so wrong and so illegal as that.  Mormont and every other lord commander would have taken off Mance Rayder's head instead of sending him on an errand to steal Arya away from the Boltons.  

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

11 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

can see Samwell standing in front of the horses and putting his own body on the line in an effort to prevent his mad lord commander from riding to war with the Boltons.  Jon was completely wrong in all that he did with regards to taking Arya away from Ramsay.  I doubt that would have stopped Jon.  Jon was hellbent on getting Arya no matter the consequence.  

This is definitely more along the lines of what Sam might do to oppose Jon. I would like to ask you as well though: What do you have to say in regards to the textual evidence that proves 1. Jon sent Mance no where 2. Mance was sent to help a fleeing Arya off of WF grounds & in neutral territory

3. Jon never states outwardly or internally that his intention is to get Arya or that his decision has anything to do with Arya at all. 

10 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Mormont is not going to send a wildling criminal to take away Ramsay Bolton's wife.  No lord commander, not even the famous Night's King, would have done something so wrong and so illegal as that.  Mormont and every other lord commander would have taken off Mance Rayder's head instead of sending him on an errand to steal Arya away from the Boltons.  

Tagganaro can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe what he/she was stating is that Mormont would have done the same as Jon in regards to the wildlings, Stannis, etc. 

The NK did things much worse than Jon IMO but again, no one sent anyone to steal Ramsay's wife. At any rate if Mormont had still been LC the opportunity Mel saw - to gain Jon's trust by rescuing his sister - would have never presented itself & thus would have had to play out a different way or not at all. Mel wouldn't think she would gain any trust of Mormonts by rescuing Jon's sister. Possibly by rescuing Mormonts own sister. 

[Tagganaro]

36 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Mormont is not going to send a wildling criminal to take away Ramsay Bolton's wife.  No lord commander, not even the famous Night's King, would have done something so wrong and so illegal as that.  Mormont and every other lord commander would have taken off Mance Rayder's head instead of sending him on an errand to steal Arya away from the Boltons.  

Yes, the Night's King actions of marrying an Other, committing numerous atrocities which were scrubbed from the record books, putting numerous Night's Watch brothers under some kind of spell, and making sacrifices to the Others certainly doesn't hold a candle to Jon allowing Melisandre to send Mance to rescue a girl on a dying horse .  C'mon, at least up your trolling game.

[kissdbyfire]

9 hours ago, Casca Longinus said:

Hi Richard

I do not believe those men were being skin-changed when they assassinated Jon Snow.  Mind control on a human is not easy.  We only have to look at what happened with Sixskins.  Bowen is an intelligent man and he is not simple like Hodor.  So controlling him is not possible.  Controlling multiple people adds another level of difficulty.

I agree that the mutineers werent being skinchanged, but you can't really say it would have been impossible for Marsh to controlled like this. The truth is, we don't know that. we don't know what can or cannot happen. We know it's something very difficult, but that's all we actually know. I think it will very much depend on who is the skinchanger, who is the skinchangee, and the circumstances. 

9 hours ago, Casca Longinus said:

I also do not see any reason to  assume that the men were being controlled.  What they did is reasonable and logical when you consider what Jon Snow was about to do.  I would go out on the limb and even say Samwell would have joined Bowen Marsh if he had been present. 

Just felt I had to let you know that the twig you were hanging onto broke off and crashed on the ground. There's simply no way in 7 hells Sam would have joined Marsh & co. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

44 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree that the mutineers werent being skinchanged, but you can't really say it would have been impossible for Marsh to controlled like this. The truth is, we don't know that. we don't know what can or cannot happen. We know it's something very difficult, but that's all we actually know. I think it will very much depend on who is the skinchanger, who is the skinchangee, and the circumstances. 

I don't really buy into the mutineers being warged but you're right, we don't know anything for certain. We also don't know if there are other ways to control people & the extent of Mel's powers so there is that as well. 

[Moiraine Sedai]

15 hours ago, Casca Longinus said:

Jon sent Mance Rayder on a mission to get his sister away from Ramsay.  That means Mance is to get the job done wherever Arya happens to be.  Do you honestly think Jon would hesitate if he knew Arya was still with Ramsay?  Jon was willing to do anything to get Arya and that includes breaking whatever laws, customs, vows, and traditions are standing in the way.  Jon had gone crazy and he was no longer thinking about the big picture.  He was consumed with thoughts of Arya and became a liability that had to be removed. 

Jon was a big liability.  All of his efforts and all of his actions to get Arya away from the Boltons was harmful to the NW and it's just silly for his apologists to even try to spin his decisions into anything beneficial to the Night's Watch.  Jon hurt their cause and hurt the watch.  I don't mind speculating that the men were somehow warged but there is nothing to support that idea.  Even if they were warged by some outside party it doesn't mean that what Jon did and what he was getting ready to do was legal.  It certainly wasn't beneficial.

[the trees have eyes]

7 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jon was a big liability.  All of his efforts and all of his actions to get Arya away from the Boltons was harmful to the NW and it's just silly for his apologists to even try to spin his decisions into anything beneficial to the Night's Watch.  Jon hurt their cause and hurt the watch.  I don't mind speculating that the men were somehow warged but there is nothing to support that idea.  Even if they were warged by some outside party it doesn't mean that what Jon did and what he was getting ready to do was legal.  It certainly wasn't beneficial.

The NW pre-Jon was a few hundred men, mostly builders and stewards, clinging on to three castles.  Post-Fist of the First Men it's dwindling out of existence and has become militarily insignificant.

Under Jon's leadership it has hundreds, potentially several thousand new recruits, mostly fighting men, and in conjunction with Stannis it has allied forces of several thousand more.  It is garrisoning the abandoned castles and reaching out to Braavos - note Braavos due to the dereliction of the IT and Warden of the North who are concerned with securing their political position - to try and ensure provisions for their expanded numbers.  The NW is in a critical position but despite it's recent setbacks Jon has it looking in the best shape it has been in for generations - it has more numbers and it has finally rediscovered it's purpose and identified it's real enemy.  As long as you don't channel your inner Marsh that is and continue to think that 1) the Wildlings are still the real enemy and Jon, horror of horrors, is allying with them or 2) political neutrality is the purpose of the NW that must be maintained at all costs, rather than a simple operating guideline to leave it intact and focused on it's true purpose in the event of any civil wars at it's back.  If it's abandoned by the powers at it's back you might consider that fulfilling it's true purpose, defending the realms of men, requires making what allies it can that are prepared to help in that objective, be they wildlings or R'hllorists

I'm constantly surprised by the myopia of those who adopt the full Marsh mindset without wondering what 200 men would achieve on their own other than to seal the gates with ice and hope nothing bad happens.

Mel sends Mance to recover (F)Arya), a grey girl on a dying horse near Long Lake.  Whatever motivations either Mel or Mance have that Jon is not privy to and whatever the truth of the Pink Letter, the next thing we have is Ramsey threatening to cut out Jon's heart eat it if he does not hand over all of Selyse, Shireen, Mel, Val, The Monster, Reek and (F)Arya.  Jon apologists tend to think that Ramsay is neither rational, reasonable or trustworthy and that giving into the demands that can be met (the guests who are present at Castle Black) would not forestall a psycopathic bloodbath any more than the Ironborn's surrender at Moat Cailin did.  Clearly the IT wants Jon dead, clearly Ramsay and Roose want a son of Ned Stark dead, clearly Marsh et al reach the conclusion that Jon dead makes their lives easier with the forces they fear.  This is all comprehensible enough but we are not meant to root for Cersei and Tywin, Roose and Ramsay, Marsh and Thorne. 

Assassinating Jon will set off a powder keg at Castle Black and a best case scenario has the wildlings heading south at will, a worst case has them taking over Castle Black and allowing as many of their people through the Wall as posisble without any of the oaths and hostages Jon secured for good behaviour.  From a Marsh POV that is a disaster either way you look at it.  Fom the perspective of humanity shattering the coalition that Jon has build up to defend the Wall is the worst possible thing that could happen.

And, no, half a dozen adult men who had a motivation to kill Jon do not need to be warges, should that even be possible which I doubt.  People are responsible for their own actions unless and even if they are effectively manipulated but we don't need BloodRaven the master puppeteer or some equivalent to be behind every event.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

12 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jon was a big liability.  All of his efforts and all of his actions to get Arya away from the Boltons was harmful to the NW and it's just silly for his apologists to even try to spin his decisions into anything beneficial to the Night's Watch.  Jon hurt their cause and hurt the watch.  I don't mind speculating that the men were somehow warged but there is nothing to support that idea.  Even if they were warged by some outside party it doesn't mean that what Jon did and what he was getting ready to do was legal.  It certainly wasn't beneficial.

Everything the trees have eyes said. 

Also the word "treason" is thrown around in here - I know you didn't say it but I've deduced from your post that you believe Jon a traitor & his actions treasonous. What do you believe planning an assassination on your commanding officer is? Treason. 

What in particular do you believe Jon's actions were to get Arya from Ramsay & how did those actions negatively affect the NW? 

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

This is all comprehensible enough but we are not meant to root for Cersei and Tywin, Roose and Ramsay, Marsh and Thorne. 

I agree. I have never seen a fandom so willing to root for what the author has intended to be the "bad guy" Look at Ramsay. He is a tortuous, murderous, raping psychopath with no regard for anyone but him self. He literally has no redeeming qualities & no understandable reason for him to have grown into this monster & yet some profess to the high heavens that he has been grievously wronged by helping another human to avoid further rape, torture, & eventual death at his hands. I don't get it. 

[Corvo the Crow]

3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Everything the trees have eyes said. 

Also the word "treason" is thrown around in here - I know you didn't say it but I've deduced from your post that you believe Jon a traitor & his actions treasonous. What do you believe planning an assassination on your commanding officer is? Treason. 

What in particular do you believe Jon's actions were to get Arya from Ramsay & how did those actions negatively affect the NW? 

I agree. I have never seen a fandom so willing to root for what the author has intended to be the "bad guy" Look at Ramsay. He is a tortuous, murderous, raping psychopath with no regard for anyone but him self. He literally has no redeeming qualities & no understandable reason for him to have grown into this monster & yet some profess to the high heavens that he has been grievously wronged by helping another human to avoid further rape, torture, & eventual death at his hands. I don't get it. 

He had a bad childhood okay? His mother is a rape victim and his best buddy always stinks so bad he is upset for them. He is a fine young gentleman that just needs to be rehabilitated so he can be a productive member of the society.

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

He had a bad childhood okay? His mother is a rape victim and his best buddy always stinks so bad he is upset for them. He is a fine young gentleman that just needs to be rehabilitated so he can be a productive member of the society.

Poor misunderstood little Ramsay, I'm nearly in tears here. /s