US politics: Just another Mueller Monday

[IheartIheartTesla]

Is it raining in Virginia? I read on RCP it has a modest effect on turnout.

At any rate, nail biting time till tonight. Unfortunately this is how it will be for most elections from 2016 onwards since we cant take anything for granted. I remember in 2012 being supremely confident Obama would win, and actually even underestimated his EC numbers. Those days are long gone.

This should have been a slam dunk.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

55 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Just have to say, I think I'd have ethical concerns, having somebody watch conservative commentators as an experiment.

It probably causes brain damage.

Once you get out of law school and get your license, you might want to think about suing.

Lol, honestly the worst part was that the data wasn’t even used.

22 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

That's brutal. I could only handle Beck in like 10 minute stretches, and that was pushing it. And Hannity is just a black hole of suck. Like there is literally nothing entertaining about that guy. How he ever got past radio is beyond me.

The only reason why Beck was worse was because I had to watch him for 14 weeks longer than Hannity. Otherwise he was a lot better. With him you could spark up and laugh at what he was spewing since I didn’t have to focus that hard on what he was talking about. Hannity was just always painful. I’m sure he’s a truly awful human being in his private life. Beck, on the other hand, is just a kook. He once talked about how he had to wear bread bags as shoes.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Is it raining in Virginia? I read on RCP it has a modest effect on turnout.

At any rate, nail biting time till tonight. Unfortunately this is how it will be for most elections from 2016 onwards since we cant take anything for granted. I remember in 2012 being supremely confident Obama would win, and actually even underestimated his EC numbers. Those days are long gone.

This should have been a slam dunk.

It is raining softly now in NoVA, it wasn't raining earlier when I voted.  There were fewer people voting than the presidential election, but more than the primary, which is about what you'd expect. 

[The Wedge]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Beck, on the other hand, is just a kook. He once talked about how he had to wear bread bags as shoes.

In what context did Beck wear bread bags as shoes?

Bread bags were improvised winter shoe covers to keep some of the snow/wet out of sneakers.  It wasn't very effective, but it was done if a kid couldn't find or fit into whatever boots they should have been wearing.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

31 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

Alright, let the baseless, premature VA speculation begin.

Apparently turnout is pretty massive in the early hours, and Alexandria has already had a turnout (including absentee) that matches 30% of the expected turnout based on last election, with Falls Church being even higher.

(I know, but we have to pass the next 10 hours somehow, and I'm not going to start drinking until in 5.)

 

30 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Is it raining in Virginia? I read on RCP it has a modest effect on turnout.

At any rate, nail biting time till tonight. Unfortunately this is how it will be for most elections from 2016 onwards since we cant take anything for granted. I remember in 2012 being supremely confident Obama would win, and actually even underestimated his EC numbers. Those days are long gone.

This should have been a slam dunk.

My mother's vote was literally changed by a barrage of text messages [purportedly] from Democrat-linked PACs.  One of them (she forwarded) was "Your vote is public record, MARY.  Your Neighbors are Watching."  Another was "Polls are open until 7 PM DAVID.  Improve your voting record!".  Her name is not David.  She has only missed two elections EVER.  She will be voting for Gillespie.

[denstorebog]

5 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 

My mother's vote was literally changed by a barrage of text messages [purportedly] from Democrat-linked PACs.  One of them (she forwarded) was "Your vote is public record, MARY.  Your Neighbors are Watching."  Another was "Polls are open until 7 PM DAVID.  Improve your voting record!".  Her name is not David.  She has only missed two elections EVER.  She will be voting for Gillespie.

And naturally there's absolutely no reason to believe that came from a DemPac. Between this shit and the usual games of "remember to go out and vote on the 9th" / "vote by replying to this SMS", it's easy to start wondering why we even try.

[Cas Stark]

9 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 

My mother's vote was literally changed by a barrage of text messages [purportedly] from Democrat-linked PACs.  One of them (she forwarded) was "Your vote is public record, MARY.  Your Neighbors are Watching."  Another was "Polls are open until 7 PM DAVID.  Improve your voting record!".  Her name is not David.  She has only missed two elections EVER.  She will be voting for Gillespie.

You don't know if it really came from the Democrats.  But, in my state, I had at least 8 Democrats come to the door over the last several weeks inquiring about the voting habits of the household, trying to get us to register to vote by mail, even though the polling place is only 5 blocks away, asking questions about voting history and preferences....oh yeah, one person to my facing saying 'oh I see you are a Republican.........which was quite frankly very, very creepy...knowing that herds of 20 something people having my name and voting preference.  I will be changing back to Independent ASAP.  It was all very intimidating.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

5 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

You don't know if it really came from the Democrats.  But, in my state, I had at least 8 Democrats come to the door over the last several weeks inquiring about the voting habits of the household, trying to get us to register to vote by mail, even though the polling place is only 5 blocks away, asking questions about voting history and preferences....oh yeah, one person to my facing saying 'oh I see you are a Republican.........which was quite frankly very, very creepy...knowing that herds of 20 something people having my name and voting preference.  I will be changing back to Independent ASAP.  It was all very intimidating.

At least one of them says "Paid for and authorized by Forward Majority Action, www.forwardmajority.org.  Not authorized by any Candidate or Candiate's [sic] committee."  

Now, Forward Majority Action is a Democratic-linked super-PAC.  The typo makes me suspicious, but who's to say.

Some of the stuff is creepy and wrong.  She got another one address to "Mary" saying they saw she lived on "Confederate Lane".  Now, her name isn't Mary, and she doesn't live there, but she's pretty sure they didn't care and just wanted to bring to mind the Gillespie comments on monuments.  ETA - which she disagrees with and had her almost ready to vote for Northam. SMH.

[Ormond]

10 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

You don't know if it really came from the Democrats.  But, in my state, I had at least 8 Democrats come to the door over the last several weeks inquiring about the voting habits of the household, trying to get us to register to vote by mail, even though the polling place is only 5 blocks away, asking questions about voting history and preferences....oh yeah, one person to my facing saying 'oh I see you are a Republican.........which was quite frankly very, very creepy...knowing that herds of 20 something people having my name and voting preference.  I will be changing back to Independent ASAP.  It was all very intimidating.

I'm sorry you were upset, but voter registrations are public records and most states that have registration by party allow that information to be accessed in some way, so this really isn't "creepy." If you don't want that information to be releasable, you will need to lobby your state government about the issue. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/metabrown/2015/12/28/voter-data-whats-public-whats-private/#39da8bf11591

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

28 minutes ago, The Wedge said:

In what context did Beck wear bread bags as shoes?

Bread bags were improvised winter shoe covers to keep some of the snow/wet out of sneakers.  It wasn't very effective, but it was done if a kid couldn't find or fit into whatever boots they should have been wearing.

IIRC, the context was he was being punished for something. He had a very strange upbringing if you believe what he says, but a lot of it came off as being super embellished.

55 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Is it raining in Virginia? I read on RCP it has a modest effect on turnout.

At any rate, nail biting time till tonight. Unfortunately this is how it will be for most elections from 2016 onwards since we cant take anything for granted. I remember in 2012 being supremely confident Obama would win, and actually even underestimated his EC numbers. Those days are long gone.

This should have been a slam dunk.

The Obama staffers at the main Twin Cities office thought Obama was going to lose MN. Those of us from other campaigns that were helping at the end thought they were insane. But you’re right to say that going forward we can’t take anything for granted. We need to adopt Cam Newton’s mentality that no matter what happens, “the Titanic still has to go.” Now let’s go eat that W!!!

[Cas Stark]

11 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I'm sorry you were upset, but voter registrations are public records and most states that have registration by party allow that information to be accessed in some way, so this really isn't "creepy." If you don't want that information to be releasable, you will need to lobby your state government about the issue. 

Yes, but in practice, strangers who are coming to the door, not just running direct mail or even phone campaigns, but showing up at the front door, commenting about party affiliation, is creepy and intimidating, especially in this climate of political hysteria.  Of course, one wonders, why if the list says the people who live at XX address are GOP and Independent, did they still send more than half a dozen people for the same exact reason?  I don't actually think that who you vote for should be accessible to the "public" but it's a fairly long standing tradition I think? so unlikely to be changed.

ETA: Also, if I got a direct mail piece like what the other poster mentioned:  NAME: your vote is public your neighbors are watching, I would, again be completely creeped out and would believe the purpose was to intimidate me.  

[Mlle. Zabzie]

5 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I'm sorry you were upset, but voter registrations are public records and most states that have registration by party allow that information to be accessed in some way, so this really isn't "creepy." If you don't want that information to be releasable, you will need to lobby your state government about the issue. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/metabrown/2015/12/28/voter-data-whats-public-whats-private/#39da8bf11591

Oh yes - it's the big data linkages to cell phone numbers that is a bit creepy.  Also, at least what my mother has received to me feels ethically suspect.  

[S John]

5 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

At least one of them says "Paid for and authorized by Forward Majority Action, www.forwardmajority.org.  Not authorized by any Candidate or Candiate's [sic] committee."  

Now, Forward Majority Action is a Democratic-linked super-PAC.  The typo makes me suspicious, but who's to say.

Some of the stuff is creepy and wrong.  She got another one address to "Mary" saying they saw she lived on "Confederate Lane".  Now, her name isn't Mary, and she doesn't live there, but she's pretty sure they didn't care and just wanted to bring to mind the Gillespie comments on monuments.  ETA - which she disagrees with and had her almost ready to vote for Northam. SMH.

My parents also live in Virginia, I'll have to ask them if they've gotten anything like that.  But they also live in one of the most conservative counties in the state so I don't know the extent to which the Dem's would even bother campaigning in the area.  I guess that would also go for nefarious types posing as Dems trying to suppress support and / or turnout as well, as those resources would probably be better applied in NoVa, Richmond, or Tidewater area.  

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I'm sorry you were upset, but voter registrations are public records and most states that have registration by party allow that information to be accessed in some way, so this really isn't "creepy." If you don't want that information to be releasable, you will need to lobby your state government about the issue. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/metabrown/2015/12/28/voter-data-whats-public-whats-private/#39da8bf11591

Yep.  A lot of people don't know that, but whether you voted or not is usually public record as well.  What is always protected is who you voted for.  If you've ever worked on GOTV efforts, the parties have a pretty good idea of who lives in each house, what their party affiliation is, and which elections they voted in.  People going door to door generally give the highest priority to getting new people who moved to the area registered, and to voters who are registered to their party, but who vote less than 100% of the time.  Those are the people you have to remind and encourage to get out and vote. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

(Response to Tywin) MN? Thats weird, that was almost certainly in the bag. The big uncertainty for me was Florida, which Obama ultimately pulled off (and therefore I underestimated his final numbers by ~ 28, had him pegged for ~305, which I even wrote on a whiteboard somewhere)

[Mlle. Zabzie]

5 minutes ago, S John said:

My parents also live in Virginia, I'll have to ask them if they've gotten anything like that.  But they also live in one of the most conservative counties in the state so I don't know the extent to which the Dem's would even bother campaigning in the area.  I guess that would also go for nefarious types posing as Dems trying to suppress support and / or turnout as well, as those resources would probably be better applied in NoVa, Richmond, or Tidewater area.  

Yeah - there was a downticket cell phone push in Roanoke apparently per the local paper.  Did a fair bit of research.  Did not like the tone of some of the stuff she forwarded me.  It's one thing that all this stuff is public record.  It's another to use the information in a semi-accusatory/mildly threatening way.  I don't know which side is really doing it for what it's worth.

[Dr. Pepper]

I can't imagine that someone who purports to change their vote due to a cell phone text addressed to someone else was likely going to make the right vote anyway.  

[Ormond]

29 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Yes, but in practice, strangers who are coming to the door, not just running direct mail or even phone campaigns, but showing up at the front door, commenting about party affiliation, is creepy and intimidating, especially in this climate of political hysteria.  Of course, one wonders, why if the list says the people who live at XX address are GOP and Independent, did they still send more than half a dozen people for the same exact reason?  I don't actually think that who you vote for should be accessible to the "public" but it's a fairly long standing tradition I think? so unlikely to be changed.

ETA: Also, if I got a direct mail piece like what the other poster mentioned:  NAME: your vote is public your neighbors are watching, I would, again be completely creeped out and would believe the purpose was to intimidate me.  

WHO you voted for is NOT accessible to "the public" -- it's just your party registration that is. People can make reasonable guesses about who you voted for based on that, but they cannot be sure. 

I am also pretty sure that the intimidation in such a message is designed to get you not to vote at all. 

[DMC]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I did the latter during my junior year, so I had to watch Glenn Beck’s show every day for both the fall and spring semesters and document the amount of time he spent doing “hard news” versus the amount of time he spent on conspiracy theory stuff. It was a horrifying affair. I also had to watch Hannity’s show for a semester, and that that was also pretty freaking awful.

In my program I've been lucky enough to have been given a number undergrad RAs.  The stuff I've had them do is agonizingly boring, but that just seems downright cruel and unusual.  It also is to be expected - if anyone's going to have to be subjected to such type of data collection, it's inevitably going to be the lowest on the totem-pole, which are of course undergrads looking for course credit.

1 hour ago, denstorebog said:

I know, but we have to pass the next 10 hours somehow, and I'm not going to start drinking until in 5

So, does that mean you're not going to start drinking until 5:00 or in 5 minutes?

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Is it raining in Virginia? I read on RCP it has a modest effect on turnout.

Easily the most "fun" paper my advisor was ever a part of is "Republicans Should Pray For Rain."  Not coincidentally, it's also by far his simplest - the takeaway can be succinctly communicated quoting two sentences of the abstract:

Quote

We find that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party’s vote share.

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I can't imagine that someone who purports to change their vote due to a cell phone text addressed to someone else was likely going to make the right vote anyway.  

Ok, imagine what you want.  She was pretty upset about Gillespie's comments on monuments.  She was equally upset with the maybe/maybe not exclusion of Justin Fairfax from campaign literature (she had met him - he's an alum of the same college - was actually a year behind me - and she had gone to hear him speak - think she voted for him; she can't stand Vogel).  And, look, it's her vote, there's no "right" and "wrong" about it.

I'm with Ormond on what they are trying to do, btw.  It's pretty upsetting overall.