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U.S. Politics 2017: Yes Virginia, There Is a Santa Claus


Manhole Eunuchsbane

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55 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

A partner of mine just sketched out the following for giggles as something that might actually make sense (so will never happen). Discuss:

20% corporate rate

8% repatriation rate for 2018, payable over 5 years.

Increase the standard deduction to $15,000.  Child care credit at $1500.

Pass throughs and individuals taxed at 12%, 25% and 37%, active or passive.

Carried interest taxed as ordinary income, or a 5 year holding period.

20% dividend and capital gain rate

State and local taxes deductible, but not in an amount greater than 5% of AGI.

Where does the 25% tax rate kick in? Is it for household incomes over $250,000? I suppose it would work out for me personally, but my intuition has always been to have more brackets rather than less (I think a continuum of tax rates makes the most sense, once you start having brackets then it immediately starts becoming regressive to someone).

Also not a fan of 'shocks to the system', like a sudden decrease in corporate taxes by a substantial amount. A more gradual decrease allows for course corrections (for instance, making sure corporations use the extra money they have to create more jobs rather than buy back stocks). So maybe a staggered lowering of that rate.

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WaPo is breaking some ... interesting news about Moore's righteous deeds in the past.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/woman-says-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-when-she-was-14-he-was-32/2017/11/09/1f495878-c293-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.6ca28ef76339

Unfortunately, this will easily be painted as a he-said-she-said story by his supporters with no real evidence (so far) to back it up. Or maybe I should say fortunately, since being outed as a certified pedophile would probably guarantee him the win.

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10 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Dunno about the Moore news. The race is bizarrely running neck and neck, republicans hate Moore, and this is exactly the sort of thing that if it gets out there turns undecideds. 

I have such a low opinion of Republicans that I honestly think this might help Moore.  Republicans love rallying around their man, and that distracts people from his obvious corruption.

On the flip side, I really hope the Democrats try and win this race.  Yes, it's a long shot, but it's a shot, and a Senate seat in Alabama is worth SO MUCH, even if it's virtually guaranteed to go back R in 2020. 

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6 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Yeah. Other than  the high reward for reasonably low risk here, showing democrats can actually win literally anywhere is a big deal. 

Not to mention that it would really break Bannon's standing. It was easy to turn Gillespie's loss into a what-did-we-tell-you among the Bannonites. A Moore loss? Not so much.

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9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Yeah. Other than  the high reward for reasonably low risk here, showing democrats can actually win literally anywhere is a big deal. 

The problem is that Democrats probably can't win anywhere.  In Virginia Northam won by such a margin because the Democrats were very motivated, not because a portion of conservatives/moderates had turned against Trump.  Democrats are pretty thin on the ground in Alabama.  Really the only hope for an upset is if enough Trump friendly voters stay home because they're disgusted with Moore being a corrupt scumbag.  Which is possible, but I'm not counting on it. 

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It’s important to keep in mind that while the RCP average is +6 for Moore, he’s typically failing to get to or above 50% in the individual polls. That’s a good sign that he’s incredibly vulnerable, so if enough Republicans stay home combined with enough people voting against Moore out of disgust, Jones could actually pull this off. My biggest question is have the Dems been going gangbusters trying to register people to vote?

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On 11/9/2017 at 0:01 PM, Mlle. Zabzie said:

So, less so with individuals, for complicated reasons, but corporations do reduce their taxes through offshore subsidiaries.  It's because they are stripping income out of the US through tax-deductible payments to foreign subsidiaries in lower tax jurisdictions (meaning functionally everywhere).  That is, if I am US PharmaCo, I establish a [Swiss/Netherlands/UK] IP Co and transfer my current IP to that IP Co., often through a "platform contribution" arrangement such that the US basically gets some royalties but less and less over time as the contributed IP gets more obsolete.  I then set up a "principal" structure in that or another low-cost country which serves as the "entrepreneur" with respect to developing the IP.  This principal "contract manufactures" with other subsidiaries (who earn a margin of cost + X), and then contracts with subsidiaries around the world to be "limited risk distributors" again at cost + X to distribute the product.  Anything about the transfer pricing margins (which are usually relatively minimal) ends up back in the "entrepreneur's" hands where it is subject to tax at a very low rate.  That is very, very, very, simplified, but that's what's going on.  It's pretty well explained in those HP hearings from 5 or 6 years ago.

I’m probably screwing this up and probably over simplifying things, but isn't the whole process something like:

1. I make MAGA caps because everyone wants one of course.

2. MAGA caps, however, are made mostly with labor. Most of my cost will be labor cost. So whether the corporate tax rate is 20% or 25% or 30% or 50% or whatever, it still cheaper to make the product in China or Vietnam or wherever than the US.

3. But, I really, don’t want to pay the US tax rate.

4. So I hire some guy in Dublin to start a company.

6. I license the trademark to the guy in Dublin,for “MAGA”, a valuable piece of intellectual property if there ever was one and he pays me some money for the trademark. But, given how valuable a trademark would be on something like MAGA, I have him pay me a very low price.

7. The guy in Dublin pays some other guy in Hannoi or maybe Beijing to start a company that makes MAGA hats. The guy in Hannoi or Beijing agrees to pay a fee for the MAGA trademark to the guy in Dublin.

8. The MAGA hats are sold around the world.

9. The guy in Dublin records a bunch of profits, which makes Ireland's GDP numbers look fantastic. He pays the Irish Corporate Tax rate. He doesn’t send the money back to the US though. He puts the money in a bank account or whatever.

10. Conservative tv commentator guy then says, “How about that Celtic Tiger! There doin’ awesome cause of that low corporate tax rate. Look at those GDP numbers! Just  Wow!”,  even though not one MAGA cap was made in Ireland and not one Irish worker got paid a dime for making MAGA caps.

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5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That’s a good sign that he’s incredibly vulnerable, so if enough Republicans stay home combined with enough people voting against Moore out of disgust, 

One thing to remember is that there's over a month until the election. That is, almost to the date, exactly how long before the presidential election the Access Hollywood tapes came out. Everyone thought that was the end of it, but a month later, the supporters had rationalized it away and the critics had stopped talking about it because it seemed trite.

On one hand, this is a far more serious allegation, but on the other hand there's no actual evidence (yet) whereas Trump was on audio. So there's plenty of time for Moore's people to circle the wagons, smear WaPo and the lying media and pound this thing back into the ground.

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