What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

47 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Extend a loan to Weeper and replace Jon?

I can't see the Weeper understanding the finer points of loan negotiations.

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Watch cannot pay then the Braavosi would like take possession of the Gift and eventually of the Wall itself, making the NW their servants working their lands for them.

Or they would throw them out of their new lands and have some Braavosi settle the Gifts.

Wouldn't the problem with this be that the Watch only hold the land by agreement with the Iron Throne? I can't see any lord in the 7K being allowed to sign away their land wholesale to the Iron Bank, without their LP or the crown intervening, and the NW is probably the same. 

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Wouldn't the problem with this be that the Watch only hold the land by agreement with the Iron Throne? I can't see any lord in the 7K being allowed to sign away their land wholesale to the Iron Bank, without their LP or the crown intervening, and the NW is probably the same. 

If the Iron Throne stepped in and took the loans of the NW upon themselves, one assumes the Watch could keep their lands. If not, then the Iron Bank would take its due. You don't double-cross those people.

Of course, a King Stannis would do this. But under any other king this could be the final nail in the coffin for the NW. 'Now they are taking loans, forcing us to cover them? That's it, we are going to disband this so-called order!'

Land in the Seven Kingdoms can be bought and sold. Lordships apparently can't. A lord can thus sell away all or most of his land but unless the buyers are lords themselves (and have the permission of the Iron Throne) they cannot rule over said lands as lords.

[Stormking902]

On 08/11/2017 at 9:53 AM, Lollygag said:

ADWD Jon IX

Tycho Nestoris had left behind a copy of their agreement. Jon read it over thrice. That was simple, he reflected. Simpler than I dared hope. Simpler than it should have been.

 

There's something weird with that loan. We're never told who the loan was made out to: the NW or to Jon personally. If it was made out to Jon personally, it may actually be Jon who can claim the money and is responsible for it, not the NW.

As KitN, Lord of Winterfell or whatever, the loan and the responsibility for it may go to him depending on the wording.

Maybe relevant, but Marsh knows about the valuables collected from the wildlings, but if I recall correctly, Jon didn't tell Marsh about the loan before he was attacked.

Lending money to the NW was nice, but given the NW's poverty and a bad winter coming, it was a bad decision financially for the Iron Bank. So what did they gain?

Perhaps the IB knows about the coming WW invasion and gladly jumped at the chance to help the realm of man AND make a possible proffit at the same dahm time. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Iron Throne stepped in and took the loans of the NW upon themselves, one assumes the Watch could keep their lands. If not, then the Iron Bank would take its due. You don't double-cross those people.

Of course, a King Stannis would do this. But under any other king this could be the final nail in the coffin for the NW. 'Now they are taking loans, forcing us to cover them? That's it, we are going to disband this so-called order!'

Land in the Seven Kingdoms can be bought and sold. Lordships apparently can't. A lord can thus sell away all or most of his land but unless the buyers are lords themselves (and have the permission of the Iron Throne) they cannot rule over said lands as lords.

Fair points. In normal times you could see the Northern lords organising some kind of whip round if the NW were in dire financial straits I guess. 

[ToysoldierXIII]

Dear god, the 13 years since fatty has written a main book has made all of you nuts. Are we really this deep into analyzing interest rates and the like in a fictional world!?!

Put on your tinfoil hat and have some fun instead of putting us to sleep with your fine print!!!

RLJ is out there, Robb's will is out there, Stannis wants to crown Jon, and R'hllor is clearly trying to convince his priests that Jon is a big deal.

If the IB knows ANY of this it explains the easy, sweetheart loan. Go forth and dig for evidence of their knowledge fellow tinfoilers!

[Lollygag]

4 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

Perhaps the IB knows about the coming WW invasion and gladly jumped at the chance to help the realm of man AND make a possible proffit at the same dahm time. 

I stated my position earlier upthread.

[Lollygag]

1 hour ago, ToysoldierXIII said:

Dear god, the 13 years since fatty has written a main book has made all of you nuts. Are we really this deep into analyzing interest rates and the like in a fictional world!?!

Put on your tinfoil hat and have some fun instead of putting us to sleep with your fine print!!!

RLJ is out there, Robb's will is out there, Stannis wants to crown Jon, and R'hllor is clearly trying to convince his priests that Jon is a big deal.

If the IB knows ANY of this it explains the easy, sweetheart loan. Go forth and dig for evidence of their knowledge fellow tinfoilers!

YEEEESSSS!!!!!!! No more hedge funds and diversifying the portfolio in a fantasy series about convoluted political conspiracies, shadow babies, dragons and ice zombie apocalypses!!!!!!!

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I can't see the Weeper understanding the finer points of loan negotiations.

[Chris Mormont]

Jon struck a good deal.  Perhaps he pointed out that without the NW the 7 Kingdoms may fall and no one will pay back their loans, thus the IB is protecting their existing interests.  As for collateral, it's timber.  Bravos has none and there's acres and acres of wooded land both north and south of the wall.  Getting it to Bravos will be the problem and that is why it will take years for them to climb out of debt.

 

[Damon_Tor]

On 11/8/2017 at 5:53 AM, Lollygag said:

ADWD Jon IX

Tycho Nestoris had left behind a copy of their agreement. Jon read it over thrice. That was simple, he reflected. Simpler than I dared hope. Simpler than it should have been.

 

There's something weird with that loan. We're never told who the loan was made out to: the NW or to Jon personally. If it was made out to Jon personally, it may actually be Jon who can claim the money and is responsible for it, not the NW.

As KitN, Lord of Winterfell or whatever, the loan and the responsibility for it may go to him depending on the wording.

Maybe relevant, but Marsh knows about the valuables collected from the wildlings, but if I recall correctly, Jon didn't tell Marsh about the loan before he was attacked.

Lending money to the NW was nice, but given the NW's poverty and a bad winter coming, it was a bad decision financially for the Iron Bank. So what did they gain?

The Bank may view it as an investment on their loan to Stannis. If the Banks believes an assault by the Others in immanent, they may be concerned that Stannis wouldn't be able to hold the North from both the Walkers and the Lannisters. So they're doing what they can do to bolster the Watch to keep Stannis's Northern flank protected. That would explain It's why the terms of the loan are so reasonable; they don't expect to profit from the loan directly.

[Tagganaro]

11 minutes ago, Damon_Tor said:

The Bank may view it as an investment on their loan to Stannis. If the Banks believes an assault by the Others in immanent, they may be concerned that Stannis wouldn't be able to hold the North from both the Walkers and the Lannisters. So they're doing what they can do to bolster the Watch to keep Stannis's Northern flank protected. That would explain It's why the terms of the loan are so reasonable; they don't expect to profit from the loan directly.

I think I pretty much agree with this, although I question how "supernatural" the Bank is with its dealings.  Meaning that I'm not sure they'd buy into the whole threat of the Others, etc.  I think it's more a practical thing, the Bank is interested in gaining as much influence as possible in Westeros, and see this as a means to that end, whether it's indirectly supporting Stannis's cause or just directly having some kind of leverage over the NW.

I've always wondered why Jon doesn't tell Bowen about this deal with the Bank.  Bowen is very fixated on food stores and feeding everyone, especially with the influx of the wildlings.  I understand that Jon is concerned with the long-term ramifications of being indebted to the Bank, but I would think in the short-term Jon would be more than happy to relieve some of Bowen's concerns by telling him about this.  

[Nevets]

I have serious doubts that the Gift and New Gift are even alienable (i.e., transferrable to new ownership) in the first place, certainly not to a foreign business like the Iron Bank.  I think it is more likely that they have been given concessions to exploit resources on NW land and/or the Haunted Forest (which would likely need NW help to be effectively exploited).  We know, for example, that wood is rare and very valuable in Braavos.

Another possibility is that the loan to Stannis includes a provision for the Crown to be a backstop for the loan. 

Maybe that's why Stannis is so upset with Nestoris

in the preview chapter.  Jon wouldn't even need to be aware of it.  

There is also the possibility of political considerations that have nothing to do with the financial aspects.  Certainly, the current NW is close to Stannis, and is closely associated with the North as a region, which is currently effectively independent from the rest of Westeros.  Given the IBs problems with Cersei, this could be a factor.  

One thing I have no doubt about.  The IB, in the form of Tycho Nestoris, considers the loan to be worth making.  For whatever reasons.

[Lollygag]

43 minutes ago, Damon_Tor said:

The Bank may view it as an investment on their loan to Stannis. If the Banks believes an assault by the Others in immanent, they may be concerned that Stannis wouldn't be able to hold the North from both the Walkers and the Lannisters. So they're doing what they can do to bolster the Watch to keep Stannis's Northern flank protected. That would explain It's why the terms of the loan are so reasonable; they don't expect to profit from the loan directly.

If you want to discuss real Arya as collateral for the loan, I'm game for that

[cpg2016]

52 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I have serious doubts that the Gift and New Gift are even alienable (i.e., transferrable to new ownership) in the first place, certainly not to a foreign business like the Iron Bank.  I think it is more likely that they have been given concessions to exploit resources on NW land and/or the Haunted Forest (which would likely need NW help to be effectively exploited).  We know, for example, that wood is rare and very valuable in Braavos.

One thing I have no doubt about.  The IB, in the form of Tycho Nestoris, considers the loan to be worth making.  For whatever reasons.

A million times both of these sentiments.  I agree that the lands of the Watch are probably not alienable, but my point was more that the Iron Bank is looking at this loan from the perspective of exploiting the resources belonging to the Watch as collateral, not in thinking that the income of the Watch is sufficient to repay their loan.

And since the highly competent Iron Bank extended the loan, it stands to reason they think they'll "get their due".  

[Nevets]

56 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

A million times both of these sentiments.  I agree that the lands of the Watch are probably not alienable, but my point was more that the Iron Bank is looking at this loan from the perspective of exploiting the resources belonging to the Watch as collateral, not in thinking that the income of the Watch is sufficient to repay their loan.

And since the highly competent Iron Bank extended the loan, it stands to reason they think they'll "get their due".  

I was primarily responding to those that were suggesting that the Iron Bank would take physical possession of the NW's property.  Otherwise, I think that we are on the same page here.

As the suggestion of Arya being collateral, the only way I could see that would be if they threatened to harm her.   That would be openly criminal behavior, which I doubt that the bank engages in (or that the Sealords would tolerate in any case).  This is as opposed to covert criminality, such as arranging for the deaths of debtors so as to collect from heirs, estates or other successors.  This I can see them doing.

[Lollygag]

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

I was primarily responding to those that were suggesting that the Iron Bank would take physical possession of the NW's property.  Otherwise, I think that we are on the same page here.

As the suggestion of Arya being collateral, the only way I could see that would be if they threatened to harm her.   That would be openly criminal behavior, which I doubt that the bank engages in (or that the Sealords would tolerate in any case).  This is as opposed to covert criminality, such as arranging for the deaths of debtors so as to collect from heirs, estates or other successors.  This I can see them doing.

Arya already knows too many of the FM's secrets. She plays along and does what they say or they put a hit out on her. There won't be any sending her off with a friendly wave if she would choose to leave. The training FM who don't measure up would have to be put to death to keep their secrets. She walked right into the cage.

Planetos doesn't see killing children as criminal behavior. Some do see it as immoral, but they're unfortunately too much in the minority.

Also, if the loan was made to Jon personally, the non-payment of that loan could be used to blackmail Arya into doing something they think she'd otherwise not be willing to do. Perhaps part of Jon's stabbing* was to force the loan into default to blackmail Arya. Tywin (at LF's suggestion?) was the one who wrote the letter to Marsh that they wanted Slynt as LC. Hmm...

*This is based on my belief that Jon's stabbing was supposed to be staged with the intent of removing him only. But things went nuts, and Marsh & Co. went nuts and it became a crime of passion that went too far.

[Corvo the Crow]

19 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I can't see the Weeper understanding the finer points of loan negotiations.

I see what you did there, then again, maybe I don't.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I see what you did there, then again, maybe I don't.

Har!

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

13 hours ago, Lollygag said:

There won't be any sending her off with a friendly wave if she would choose to leave. The training FM who don't measure up would have to be put to death to keep their secrets. She walked right into the cage.

Where do you get this idea? I'm not saying you are wrong, I just can't find anything which implies this would happen. From what I recall, the Kindly Man tells Arya a few times that she could leave if she wanted.

[Lollygag]

10 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Where do you get this idea? I'm not saying you are wrong, I just can't find anything which implies this would happen. From what I recall, the Kindly Man tells Arya a few times that she could leave if she wanted.

No quote. It just doesn't pass the logic test for that world. The FM lose their value if anyone could do it and there's no shortage of people who would pay for that secret. We have no indication that anyone but the FM can do this which means they must have been taking thorough precautions that the secret didn't get out. I doubt they let anyone go on their honor as a boy/girl scout. There are slavers about and their freedom is tied to keeping this secret.

Rebellious people are easy to manipulate. Tell them to not do something, they'll do just that. Tell them that they can do something, they may well lose interest in doing that. Arya is often manipulated this way.

ACOK Catelyn VII

"And Arya, well . . . Ned's visitors would oft mistake her for a stableboy if they rode into the yard unannounced. Arya was a trial, it must be said. Half a boy and half a wolf pup. Forbid her anything and it became her heart's desire.

That he's called the Kindly Man is what makes him suspect for me. "Sweet" is often used in this series for using something pleasant to cover up something decidedly less so. And the reader has been warned about kindly men before:

ACOK Tyrion IV

No one had ever thought to question the appointments, and why should they? Littlefinger was no threat to anyone. A clever, smiling, genial man, everyone's friend, always able to find whatever gold the king or his Hand required, and yet of such undistinguished birth, one step up from a hedge knight, he was not a man to fear. He had no banners to call, no army of retainers, no great stronghold, no holdings to speak of, no prospects of a great marriage.