How would Tywin have fared in battle with Ned and Robert?

[Canon Claude]

Assuming that war did break out between the Lannisters and Ned/Robert’s forces post-RR, and everyone else is sitting on the sidelines. Tywin is in his prime, as are Robert and Ned. The Lannisters would be unblooded and better equipped while the North and Stormlands forces would be more battle-hardened. Tywin is a hero from the War of the Ninepenny kings and the Reyne Rebellion, while Ned and Robert have their experience from RR.

Which side would triumph?

[Adam Yozza]

4 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Assuming that war did break out between the Lannisters and Ned/Robert’s forces post-RR, and everyone else is sitting on the sidelines. Tywin is in his prime, as are Robert and Ned. The Lannisters would be unblooded and better equipped while the North and Stormlands forces would be more battle-hardened. Tywin is a hero from the War of the Ninepenny kings and the Reyne Rebellion, while Ned and Robert have their experience from RR.

Which side would triumph?

Ned and Robert have their full force from the Trident? Then probably Ned and Robert. I've yet to see an instance of Tywin fighting a battle let alone winning one if he doesn't have the numerical advantage. Given that he had 12,000 at the end of the Rebellion against however many of Robert and Ned's forces remained of their 30,000+ army from the Trident I'd say Tywin would avoid battle at all cost.

[Megorova]

Tywin could have won. He arrived to King's Landing several hours ahead of Robert and Ned. He could have locked himself with his people at Red Keep, and used wildfire against his enemies. Also he was Hand for many years, furthermore he was living at Red Keep since he was 10 (or 14) years old, so he most likely knew all ways in and out, all secret passages. The castle was prepared for longlasting siege, so eventually Tywin could have spent there a year or even more, until he burned all rebells with wildfire.

And the reason why he haven't done nothing, when Robert arrived to Red Keep, is because there was no legal means for Tywin to seize Iron Throne. Also he couldn't have get rid on his own of Rhaella and Viserys, if he was stuck in siege, he couldn't reach them at Dragonstone. And his daughter and family were at Westerlands, separated from King's Landing by The Reach, that supported Targaryens. So instead Tywin gave Iron Throne to Robert, and used his marriage with Cersei as a means to control 7K.

He could have won against Robert and Ned, but then what?

I think that Robert's rebellion was planned by Tywin. For years he wanted to get rid of Aerys, but he constanly failed. He tried several different approaches, and in the end was inspired by what happened at Harrenhall's tournament - Rhaegar crowning Lyanna as Queen of Love and Beauty. Tywin persuaded Rhaegar to escape with Lyanna, and then used his absence to start a rebellion. He and Robert conspired together against Taragryens. Robert knew that Lyanna wasn't really kidnapped, and that she willingly escaped with Rhaegar, not to marry with Robert. Though he informed Brandon about Lyanna's kidnapping, and knowing his hot temper, has sent him to sure death to Aerys. Then Tywin's people, or even Robert himself, has sent fake letter from Mad King to Jon Arryn, with demand to kill Ned and Robert. And then they started rebellion, and in appropriate moment, Tywin has arrived to King's Landing, as if though he wants to help Aerys. Couldn't be a coincidence that for more than a year of Rebellion, Tywin just luckily guessed at what time to get to King's Landing. He knew all about wildfire, but he also knew that his son is near Aerys, so in right moment Jaime will do what good son should. So by the time his secret buddy Robert will arrive to King's Landing, Tywin will already kill all present there Targaryens, and thus will assure future alliance between Robert and Lannisters.

Even though both of them are already dead, so if Robert's rebellion was indeed a conspiracy between the two of them, we won't know it from them. Though there are still people who know what really happened - Varys, Jaime, Cersei, Bran, and Patchface (who, I think, may be a Faceless Man hired by Tywin to kill Steffon Baratheon, and after accomplishment of that mission was send to spy after remaining Baratheons, and served as a link between Robert and Tywin).

[Humble Maester]

I am as Tywin fan-boy as any but even I don't think he could had pulled a victory in that situation, which is obviously why he did not go against the winners of Trident. If we are considering a situation of Westerlands just rebelling after the battle he could had possibly fought them to a stalemate on his own home field but even that would had been difficult after Robert would had more or less unified the realm (well unless Tyrells joined him but why would they, they would had had about as much reason to fight on at that point as Tywin did, close to none).

I would also have to disagree with @Megorova's assessment above. Tywin had rushed to Kingslanding so he most likely did not have huge amount of supplies to survive a siege if it came to that. But the bigger issue for Tywin would had been that it would not had come to siege, Ned's vanguard was so close behind Tywin that he did not have time to take control of the city before Ned entered it, and thus the victors of Trident would had likely been able to bear whole brunt of their force without need for a siege. The amount of men and supplies he could had gotten in Red Keep would had been far too few, and I doubt he knew about the wildfire caches either.

The relevant quote:

Quote

"The castle is ours, ser, and the city," Roland Crakehall told him, which was half true. Targaryen loyalists were still dying on the serpentine steps and in the armory, Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch were scaling the walls of Maegor's Holdfast, and Ned Stark was leading his northmen through the King's Gate even then, but Crakehall could not have known that. He had not seemed surprised to find Aerys slain; Jaime had been Lord Tywin's son long before he had been named to the Kingsguard. 

Jaime II, ASoS.

 

[Megorova]

7 hours ago, Humble Maester said:

I would also have to disagree with @Megorova's assessment above. Tywin had rushed to Kingslanding so he most likely did not have huge amount of supplies to survive a siege if it came to that. But the bigger issue for Tywin would had been that it would not had come to siege, Ned's vanguard was so close behind Tywin that he did not have time to take control of the city before Ned entered it, and thus the victors of Trident would had likely been able to bear whole brunt of their force without need for a siege. The amount of men and supplies he could had gotten in Red Keep would had been far too few, and I doubt he knew about the wildfire caches either.

Rebellion lasted for nearly a year or even longer, so Aerys had a time to prepare for a siege. So when Tywin arrived to KL's gates, the city was already locked. All Tywin had to do, is to lock the gates after his people entered, and they were ready for a siege.

How could he not know about wildfire, if he was Aerys' closest friend for many years, and King's Hand for 20 of them, and even after he left KL, his son remained close to Aerys? As Jaime was remembering about those times - there was no secrets about which Kingsguards didn't knew (including when Aerys was having sex with his wife). So Tywin knew about wildfire. And if somehow he didn't knew it until arriving to KL, it's unlikely that Jaime didn't said about it to him after he killed Aerys, to prevent him from using wildfire against Tywin and his troops.

[Dorian Martell's son]

22 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Assuming that war did break out between the Lannisters and Ned/Robert’s forces post-RR, and everyone else is sitting on the sidelines. Tywin is in his prime, as are Robert and Ned. The Lannisters would be unblooded and better equipped while the North and Stormlands forces would be more battle-hardened. Tywin is a hero from the War of the Ninepenny kings and the Reyne Rebellion, while Ned and Robert have their experience from RR.

Which side would triumph?

Tywin would have their heads in pikes by the new moon's turn 

[Tygett Lannister]

16 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Tywin would have their heads in pikes by the new moon's turn 

Why didn't he do it than fam?

[Mat92]

Curious to know exactly what Tywin would gain from going against Rob and Ned? We know that he had a falling out with Aerys as the madness took over - Tywin is an exceptionally logical person so no surprise there. I'm sure he clearly saw an advantage with having Aerys off the throne, but I'm not sure who Tywin's choice of replacement would be? Based on his order for Clegane to kill Elia Martell it's probably safe to assume he didn't want Rhaegar or any other Targs in charge. Jaime is on the Kingsguard so can't marry/hold titles and we know he hates Tyrion, so his best bet for the family is to marry Cersei to whoever wins via conquest (she was quite a catch back then), which is what he did. 
 

On 11/11/2017 at 10:13 AM, Megorova said:

Tywin could have won. He arrived to King's Landing several hours ahead of Robert and Ned. He could have locked himself with his people at Red Keep, and used wildfire against his enemies. Also he was Hand for many years, furthermore he was living at Red Keep since he was 10 (or 14) years old, so he most likely knew all ways in and out, all secret passages. The castle was prepared for longlasting siege, so eventually Tywin could have spent there a year or even more, until he burned all rebells with wildfire.

What does Tywin get out of holding himself up in KL? Sure they probably have the resources, but it doesn't seem like Tywin's style to cut himself off from the rest of Westeros and purposely put the Lannisters at war with an army that is winning, is much larger and has Robert as a leader who is much loved by the common folk. 

I agree that he definitely knew about the wildfire, but again I can't see Tywin using this against his enemies. Seems like he'd see this as a trick or gimmick rather than a strategic move.

 

Added: another note - using wildfire on his enemies is exactly what Aerys did, and Tywin would probably want to distance himself from that as much as possible if he's trying to bring back a semblance of peace/sanity to KL. 

[Megorova]

22 minutes ago, Mat92 said:

We know that he had a falling out with Aerys as the madness took over

Tywin would probably want to distance himself from that as much as possible if he's trying to bring back a semblance of peace/sanity to KL. 

Tywin didn't cared about peace, he wanted to seize power. Personally I think that Tywin was using Aerys from the very beginning, when they just met and became friends. He used their friendship to stay close to Aerys, and later to become King's Hand. He tried to get rid of Aerys, years before rebellion. He provoked him to go to Duskendale. When that didn't killed him, he wanted to marry Rhaegar with Cersei, to have control over 7K after Aerys' death. I think that Tywin killed Steffon Baratheon, to prevent him from finding Valyrian fiancee for Rhaegar. Later he tried to create a conspiracy to depose Aerys, using Rhaegar. But when Rhaegar didn't went against his father, Tywin stopped trying to clash Targaryens together, and instead used conflict between Rhaegar and Robert.

It wasn't all just Aerys' paranoia, Tywin indeed was trying to get rid of him. Though he had no means to legally became ruler of 7K. So first he tried to get Rhaegar on his side, and when that didn't worked, he used Robert, and thru his marriage with Cersei gained control over 7K. And with stupid brainless drunkard Robert as King, Tywin had even more power than he had under Mad King's reign.

[Lion of the West]

On 2017-11-11 at 0:09 AM, Canon Claude said:

Assuming that war did break out between the Lannisters and Ned/Robert’s forces post-RR, and everyone else is sitting on the sidelines. Tywin is in his prime, as are Robert and Ned. The Lannisters would be unblooded and better equipped while the North and Stormlands forces would be more battle-hardened. Tywin is a hero from the War of the Ninepenny kings and the Reyne Rebellion, while Ned and Robert have their experience from RR.

Which side would triumph?

I would think that Tywin might actually win. Tywin would command as much or possibly more forces then Eddard and Robert while great geography separates Robert and Eddard and Tywin could position himself between them, and while the West can bolster their forces with sellswords Tywin's opponent's do not rule overly wealthy regions. But then again Robert was a devil-in-iron so to speak and his personal leadership could well prove a match, even if I don't think so, for Tywin's strategy.

But then again it all depends on various factors like, who is attacking who and what are the two sides trying to accomplish? Tywin will for example have a great advantage if he can sit back in his castles and let Robert and Eddard have to attack him, while the same is true if Tywin needs to leave the West to attack Robert and draw out Eddard from Moat Cailin. The blank sheet kind of set-up for a war is to vague of all different factors that could influence the two sides.

48 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Tywin didn't cared about peace, he wanted to seize power.

He wanted recognition for his rank and accomplishments but there's precious little in the books that he wanted power for itself.

48 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Personally I think that Tywin was using Aerys from the very beginning, when they just met and became friends. He used their friendship to stay close to Aerys, and later to become King's Hand. He tried to get rid of Aerys, years before rebellion. He provoked him to go to Duskendale. When that didn't killed him, he wanted to marry Rhaegar with Cersei, to have control over 7K after Aerys' death. I think that Tywin killed Steffon Baratheon, to prevent him from finding Valyrian fiancee for Rhaegar. Later he tried to create a conspiracy to depose Aerys, using Rhaegar. But when Rhaegar didn't went against his father, Tywin stopped trying to clash Targaryens together, and instead used conflict between Rhaegar and Robert.

I understand that you don't like Tywin but there are bad things he has done in the books without us going conspiracy theorist on him.

To start with I doubt that Tywin could manipulate Aerys to the degree to make himself Hand of the King but then fail at all other parts.

How would Tywin increase his power if he got rid of the king he manipulated for a new king with whom he had no personal ties that we are aware of?

How did Tywin provoke Aerys? By giving reasonable advice and Aerys jumping out of the window, so to speak, to prove himself better than Tywin?

So, wait. First Tywin tries to get rid of Aerys to make Rhaegar king. And when that fails he tries to arrange ties with the future king to come after Aerys? That makes no sense. if it had happened in the reverse order you would have an idea for a conspiracy but not now.

And Tywin is also a sorcerer who can send storm to sink ships outside of the Storm's End?

I can however buy that both Tywin and Rhaegar could find each other against Aerys and I think that both were involved with the tourney at Harrenhall until Rhaegar kick the bucket over and everything went to hell.

How exactly did Tywin use the conflict between Rhaegar and Robert? What actions did he take to further his agenda? It seems to me that Tywin was more reacting to events rather than forming them after the Harrenhall tourney.

48 minutes ago, Megorova said:

It wasn't all just Aerys' paranoia, Tywin indeed was trying to get rid of him. Though he had no means to legally became ruler of 7K. So first he tried to get Rhaegar on his side, and when that didn't worked, he used Robert, and thru his marriage with Cersei gained control over 7K. And with stupid brainless drunkard Robert as King, Tywin had even more power than he had under Mad King's reign.

That's not even slightly true to what happened. After Robert's Rebellion and Cersei is married to Robert Jon Arryn rules as Hand for over a decade during which time Tywin has a very limited presence at court with no formal position at all and in fact Robert never mentions that Tywin has tried to get him to do anything at all. And then Robert was apparently such a Lannister puppet that he appointed a man who hated the Lannisters as the new Hand? Fact is that Tywin only return to power after Robert was dead and had to appoint Tyrion to be his stand-in Hand because Tywin was busy elsewhere. We know that Tywin wanted his grandchildren to sit on the Iron Throne and that elevation of the Lannister status was what motivated him to marry Cersei to Robert, after the deal with Rhaegar didn't work.

[Dorian Martell's son]

4 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Why didn't he do it than fam?

Because he came out of bob's rebellion stronger than any other major house 

[Tygett Lannister]

1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Because he came out of bob's rebellion stronger than any other major house 

No he didn't. Strongest major house after bob's rebellion was Arryn because Jon was de facto ruler. Tywin had little influence until death of bob. Cersei might be married to bob and he might have all the Lannister squires but there is no Lannister on small council, Tywin can't really influence Cersei from Casterly Rock.

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

He wanted recognition for his rank and accomplishments but there's precious little in the books that he wanted power for itself.

He was King's Hand for 20+ years; people were saying that even though Aerys is the King, the real ruler of 7K is Tywin; Tywin was sitting on Iron Throne more often than Aerys himself. What kind of recognition could be more than all of that?

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

I understand that you don't like Tywin but there are bad things he has done in the books without us going conspiracy theorist on him.

I don't 'don't like him'. But his behaviour and relationship with Aerys are very suggestive. He stayed in King's Landing, despite continuous deterioration of their relationship, and constant conflicts, because he wanted to stay close to source of power. And he finally resigned as King's Hand, only after all his attempts to steal from Aerys complete control over 7K, has failed. Despite killing Steffon, and thus eliminating possibility for Rhaegar to marry with Valyrian fiancee, Tywin plan to marry Rhaegar to Cersei still failed. But Tywin had another chance, because he still had Jaime, and there was a possibility that next Targaryen baby will be a girl, and Tywin will manage to convince Targaryens to marry her with Jaime. When this possibility was also eliminated, by Jaime becoming Kingsguard, Tywin realised that he's stuck, thus there's no way for him to proceed with his current plan to overtake 7K. He resigned, and went back to Casterly Rock to regroup and make another plan. Something totally different. And he got his inspiration from Rhaegar's encounter with Lyanna. He got his claws into Robert, and used him to legalise himself.

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

To start with I doubt that Tywin could manipulate Aerys to the degree to make himself Hand of the King but then fail at all other parts.

All he had to do, to become King's Hand, is to be Aerys' best friend. Probably he got his inspiration from Aegon V and Duncan The Tall. Also Aerys was easily influenced, while Tywin from an early age learned to be a skilled manipulator. To become his Hand was the easies part. Because people weren't expecting Aerys to become King any time soon, thus he was neglected. So it was easy for Tywin to get close to Aerys, who at that time was only son of King's second son. Ahead of him was Aegon's first son and Crown Prince Duncan and his future children, then his own father Jaehaerys, and only after them Aerys himself. But when Aerys became King, it became not as easy to influence him. Because there appeared more people in his life, that gained influence over Aerys.

Aerys King was more removed from Tywin, than Aerys son of second son of King.

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

How would Tywin increase his power if he got rid of the king he manipulated for a new king with whom he had no personal ties that we are aware of?

Even though in the books, existence of previous (prior rebellion) connection between Tywin and Robert wasn't shown, YET, it doesn't mean that there wasn't any connection.

It's too convinient for Robert, that Tywin got all the way from Casterly Rock to King's Landing, just in the right time to be let thru the gates. Because if he came even a bit later, when Ned and Robert's troops were advancing right behind them, Aerys wouldn't have opened the gates even to Tywin's people. Also how fast Robert agreed to marry with Cersei. Even though at that time he didn't knew yet about Lyanna's death, or even if they married after Lyanna's funeral, still it was too sudden to marry with someone else, while he was supposedly mourning after Lyanna.

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

How did Tywin provoke Aerys? By giving reasonable advice and Aerys jumping out of the window, so to speak, to prove himself better than Tywin?

At that time Aerys was already aware of Tywin's conspiracy against him, and his desire to solesy rule over 7K. Thus he was fighting against Tywin, acting opposite of his advices, trying to get back control stolen from him by Tywin. Though Tywin knew Aerys very well. He knew that if he will advice Aerys not to go there, then Aerys will definitely go there. Tywin used on him reverse psychology.

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

So, wait. First Tywin tries to get rid of Aerys to make Rhaegar king. And when that fails he tries to arrange ties with the future king to come after Aerys? That makes no sense. if it had happened in the reverse order you would have an idea for a conspiracy but not now.

To legally get to Iron Throne, Tywin needed the future King to be married with his daughter. And it didn't mattered to him who exactly it will be, Rhaegar or Robert.

He needed to arrange alliance between Lannister and Targaryen, and it didn't mattered whether that Targaryen had 100% or only 25% of dragon's blood.

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

And Tywin is also a sorcerer who can send storm to sink ships outside of the Storm's End?

I'm bored, so I'm crafting fantasy theories For example:

Spoiler

Aerys has sent Steffon Baratheon to Essos to find there fiancee for Rhaegar. If he succeeded, he planned to execute Tywin. Thus Tywin took countermeasures. He hired Faceless Man, who killed Steffon in Esson, and impersonated him for the rest of their journey back to 7K. He also arranged that they will be approaching Storm's End, when it will be storming. By that time everyone else on that ship were already dead, either he personally killed them all, or he used poison. Then he made this Ghost ship to crush in the vicinity of Storm's End, witnessed by other people, all of which will be convinced that Steffon Baratheon and people that accompanied him to Esson, all died in a storm. Then that Faceless Man went to shore, sent a message to inform Tywin that mission is accomplished. In response he received from Tywin, instructions to spy after Baratheon kids.Thus three days after ship's crash, he wore his mask, same identity that he used earlier to approach Steffon in Essos, Patchface, and pretended that he was also victim of that shipwreck and was washed ashore. Since then he was staying close to B Brothers, as part of their court, and when Robert became King and went to King's Landing, Patchface stayed to spy after Stannis.

 

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Robert never mentions that Tywin has tried to get him to do anything at all.

Nevertheless he gave title Warden of The East to Jaime Lannister.

And he made Ned to kill Sansa's wolf, because Cersei said so. And Robert didn't punished Jaime or Cersei for killing Ned's people.

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

And then Robert was apparently such a Lannister puppet that he appointed a man who hated the Lannisters as the new Hand?

Robert and Lannisters were manipulated by Littlefinger.

Petyr planned to become King of 7K, years prior conflict between Starks and Lannisters.

Spoiler

He knew that Cersei's children weren't Robert's, and that Cersei had an affair with Jaime, and with Lancell. Though he waited for a right time, to create a situation in which revelation of this information will be benefitual to him.

He persuaded Jon Arryn that it will be good for Robin, if he will be sent to Dragonstone as a warden for Stannis. Some time prior that he arranged Robert's visit to one of his brothels, where he introduced him to future mother of one of Robert's bastards. When the baby was born, Petyr somehow manipulated Jon to start suspecting that Cersei's children are not Robert's. He arranged that Lysa will know about Jon's decision, at about the same time, when Jon's investigation will be in its final stage (to create enough bread crumbs for Ned to follow straight into a trap). Then Lysa came to him, crying that Jon is taking her baby away from her. And Petyr gave her a solution of this problem - Tears of Lys.

He knew that Robert will make Ned new Hand; and that Ned with his family will come to KL; and that he will have an opportunity to marry with Lysa; and that Ned will find out about Cersei's cheating; and that to protect her babyes, Cersei will kill Robert, and harm Ned. Then he will make sure that Joffrey's bastard status will become known to Baratheons. Which will start a war between Lannisters on one side, Baratheons on the other, and Ned's relatives on third side. It was obvious that Riverlands and The North will join their forces to fight together against Lannisters. Also it was obvious from the very beginning that only one of Baratheon brothers will live long enough to fight against Lannisters, while the other will be eliminated prior that. Lannister's had King's Landing's troops + troops from Casterly Rock, so there was no way that surviving Baratheon brother will win against them. He will be defeated, but he will serve his purpose - to weaken Lannisters. Afterwards Lannisters will be defeated by united forces of The North and Riverlands. Thus to get to Iron Throne, all Littlefinger had to do, is to 1. marry with Lysa, 2. kill her and gain control over The Vale, 3. marry with Sansa, 4. then either leader of Union (Robb Stark) will die in course of the war (because he is young and politicaly inexperienced, which will eventually bring him to his doom (which is exactly what happened)), or if he will live long enough to defeat Lannisters, then Littlefinger will have to help him die (poison him, or make his own people rebell against him and kill him), 5. then he will use Knights of The Vale to defeat remnants of his enemies, and his marriage with Sansa to gain control over The North and Riverlands. And by that time all other kingdoms will be already headless, while Littlefinger with his troops will be in King's Landing. People will crown Sansa as their Queen, and thus as her husband Littlefinger will become King of 7K.

Littlefinger was inspired by Tywin and Robert's rebellion, so he used the same pattern for his own Game of Thrones:

Lyanna's kidnapping that caused Robert's rebellion - Ned's imprisonment and execution that caused Robb's rebellion;

Death of Brandon and Rickard Stark - Bran's injury and death of Jon Arryn;

Union between The North, The Vale and Riverlands against Targaryens - union between The North and Riverlands against Lannisters;

Dorne became casuality in Robert's rebellion - Stormlands and The Reach became casualities in War of Five Kings;

Catelyn Stark is Littlefinger's Lyanna, while Sansa is his Cersei, and Littlefinger is merge of Tywin and Robert.

And only Lysa in both rebellions played the same role - she was a spare part, marriage with whom provided access to Knights of The Vale, and involved them into a conflict between warring sides.

 

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

We know that Tywin wanted his grandchildren to sit on the Iron Throne and that elevation of the Lannister status was what motivated him to marry Cersei to Robert, after the deal with Rhaegar didn't work.

It's understandable why Tywin wanted to marry Cersei to Robert. But what motivated Robert to marry with Cersei? He could have sent Tywin and Jaime to The Wall, for killing King and Martells children, and take away Lannister's money, and give Westerlands and title Protector of The West to one of his people. There was no need for him to marry with Cersei. Everything that Tywin had, he could have taken by force.

[Dorian Martell's son]

58 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

No he didn't. Strongest major house after bob's rebellion was Arryn because Jon was de facto ruler. Tywin had little influence until death of bob. Cersei might be married to bob and he might have all the Lannister squires but there is no Lannister on small council, Tywin can't really influence Cersei from Casterly Rock.

Not true at all.  There was a reason why Jon arranged the marriage of Bob and Cersei. If House Arryn was the most powerful house, a vassal of Jon's would have been Bob's bride.  Tywin could have won the war for either side. He chose the rebels.  The small council, while important is miniscule to the financial power of the lannisters and the rock.  

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Tywin would get his butt handed to him . This is known .

[Adam Yozza]

58 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Not true at all.  There was a reason why Jon arranged the marriage of Bob and Cersei. If House Arryn was the most powerful house, a vassal of Jon's would have been Bob's bride.  Tywin could have won the war for either side. He chose the rebels.  The small council, while important is miniscule to the financial power of the lannisters and the rock.  

Tywin could not have shifter the balance of the war by that much. He ended it a damn sight quicker, but between Tully, Stark and Arryn's forces after the Trident they would have beaten him unless Mace turned around and returned to King's Landing.

[Dorian Martell's son]

14 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Tywin could not have shifter the balance of the war by that much. He ended it a damn sight quicker, but between Tully, Stark and Arryn's forces after the Trident they would have beaten him unless Mace turned around and returned to King's Landing.

You need to read more about sieges. Even facing what was left of the 30k troops that fought for bob at the trident, a fortified city could last for years against a siege. That does not even bring in the possibility of  say the army of Mace showing up and breaking the siege. Either way, Tywin's levies were unbloodied and fresh where as every other army in the kingdom had fought and suffered defeats. 

[Adam Yozza]

8 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

You need to read more about sieges. Even facing what was left of the 30k troops that fought for bob at the trident, a fortified city could last for years against a siege. That does not even bring in the possibility of  say the army of Mace showing up and breaking the siege. Either way, Tywin's levies were unbloodied and fresh where as every other army in the kingdom had fought and suffered defeats. 

The North never sufferred a defeat. We aren't told explicitly but it's highly unlikely that either the Tully's or Arryn's sufferred defeats either considering the only major battle they fought in was the Trident itself. All kingdoms had taken losses, sure, but not defeats. That's reserved almost entirely for the Stormlands.

You're also forgetting that by this point the equally fresh and unblooded ironborn had just jumped on board with Robert and started raiding the Reach. There's no reason why they couldn't have launched an attack on the West instead, which just happens to be where Tywin's family and the families of every lord who joined his march are. He wouldn't have a choice but to leave.

Ned and the rebel army do not need to siege King's Landing. They can head to the Westerlands instead if it comes to it. Tywin was planning on following Robb west during Wo5K even when there was a present threat to King's Landing in the form of Stannis. He would absolutely follow Ned if he tried something similar. Once in open field, Tywin wouldn't have a chance.

Beyond that a siege of King's Landing wouldn't last years. Storm's End was starving within a year and they had far less people than King's Landing does (less supplies too, most likely). Tywin wouldn't bring much more food with his army because it was a quick mobilization and march and he wasn't expecting to have to support 12k men through a year long siege. Since Ned arrived right on Tywin's heals there would be no time to send men to sieze grain from the Crownlands or anywhere else. It's far more likely that King's Landing could hold out for 2 years at best. Mace, most likely, wouldn't move. Plus there's the peasants of King's Landing to consider. In Wo5K they start rioting over food shortages within months. How long do you think they'd last in a sieged city? How long could Tywin and Aerys hold out against both external and internal threats.

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Tywin could have won the war for either side. He chose the rebels. 

He chose Robert because he was partially a Targaryen, thus had a legal claim of IT. And he was unmarried. Also by that time Rhaegar was already dead, so Tywin said goodbye to his dream to become grandfather of a Targaryen-Lannister King (if he managed to marry Rhaegar and Cersei). Though he hoped that it isn't too late to become grandfather of a Baratheon-Lannister King, if he will be fast enough to offer his services and his daughter to Robert.

1 hour ago, Adam Yozza said:

Once in open field, Tywin wouldn't have a chance.

Unless Tywin took with him wildfire to battlefield, and used it against Robert's troops. Then it would be sequel to the Field of Fire, only without dragons. Though how much soldiers dragon can eat? Not many. So dragon's most dangerous trait is fire. And with wildfire's catches, there's even no need to have a living dragon to burn all enemies. Wildfire is as strong as dragonfire. He could have used burning arrows and catapults, with this range of his attacks would be big enough to compensate for lack of dragon's flight.

1 hour ago, Adam Yozza said:

Beyond that a siege of King's Landing wouldn't last years. Storm's End was starving within a year and they had far less people than King's Landing does (less supplies too, most likely). Tywin wouldn't bring much more food with his army because it was a quick mobilization and march and he wasn't expecting to have to support 12k men through a year long siege. Since Ned arrived right on Tywin's heals there would be no time to send men to sieze grain from the Crownlands or anywhere else.

There was no need for Tywin to bring anything to KL. The city was already prepared for the siege. Rebellion lasted for over a year, so Aerys had lots of time to prepare for the worst case scenario. While for Stannis, Mace's attack was sudden, and there was shortage of food in the castle, even prior beginning of siege.

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

The North never sufferred a defeat. We aren't told explicitly but it's highly unlikely that either the Tully's or Arryn's sufferred defeats either considering the only major battle they fought in was the Trident itself. All kingdoms had taken losses, sure, but not defeats. That's reserved almost entirely for the Stormlands.

GRRM is clear that there are a number of battles that we have not heard about and that the Targaryens had won some battles

The Targaryens had lost a number of battles (and had also won some), but they weren't really losing the war until the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. And then it was lost.

Given that the only battle Robert had lost was too Tarly it seems more than likely that one of Ned, Jon and Hoster, perhaps all three, had suffered some kind of defeat in the year long war. 

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

You're also forgetting that by this point the equally fresh and unblooded ironborn had just jumped on board with Robert and started raiding the Reach. 

They had not jumped on board with Robert. They were being opportunistic and attacked an enemy with its army abroad (not unlike what they did to the North). 

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Ned and the rebel army do not need to siege King's Landing. They can head to the Westerlands instead if it comes to it. Tywin was planning on following Robb west during Wo5K even when there was a present threat to King's Landing in the form of Stannis.

I think you are missing three important factors here

1) Tywin (and Tyrion) believed that Stannis would be stuck at Storm's End for a number of months, that is the reason Tywin goes to deal with Robb. 

2) Tywin would have over 25k troops in the West

3) Do the rebels even have the numbers or the supplies to continue fighting for another lengthy war. 

 

i imagine there would be no clear winner in such a scenario, just a very fractured kingdom, something that Arryn wanted to avoid and the reason he set up the Cersei marriage. It could have easily been a Tyrell bride, but the point was that the Rebels needed support to properly rule

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

 

He would absolutely follow Ned if he tried something similar. Once in open field, Tywin wouldn't have a chance.

Of course he would have a chance. Numbers wise, the Crown, with Tywin, would have the greater advantage. I'm not saying he would win, but to say he has no chance is just idiotic.