A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

On 11/18/2017 at 7:29 AM, Zapho said:

He feels the need to claim this act for himself though, that's why he equips the hand that does it with a princely weapon. The dagger is his proxy, subconsciously.

Thanks.  Yes a lot of what Joffrey does and the choices he makes are not something I would say are totally conscious choices on his part.  My understanding was initially he chose such a conspicuous dagger because he is a kid and thought "this dagger is effing sick!"  That's pretty believable when you consider juvenile crime is often impulsive, sloppy, and not particularly well thought out.  Especially believable when it comes to Joffrey's intelligence and maturity level.  But you bring up an interesting point about the princely dagger being an extension of himself, or representing his self-image.  It's very well known the Lannister side of his family has always coveted Valyrian steel and Tywin makes sure Joffrey and Jaime finally get their swords from Ice.  Owning Valyrian steel speaks of legitimacy in paternity as it would normally be something inherited from father to son.  

On 11/18/2017 at 9:50 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I would almost guarantee Robert didn't give Bran a second thought - he is no concern or problem of his. 

I agree.  Isn't this so sad considering what lengths Ned will go to on Robert's behalf and the love he bears him?  Ned got to see a little glimpse of his friend's true nature when he couldn't be bothered to spare innocents when Ned pleaded out of love for their friendship and the love he bore Lyanna.  Then Ned kinda puts the incident out of his mind for a while and goes back to thinking of Robert as a true friend.  So many strong parallels to Joffrey/Sansa in ignoring the red flags.  Like father, like daughter.  How tragic that Ned risked himself to hopefully ensure Cersei's children would be saved and how on Robert's deathbed he wanted to spare his friend the truth and a broken heart... when Robert thought Ned's son should just die already because his paralysis and coma was such a buzz kill for the party.   

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"Oh, don't be absurd." Cersei closed the window. "Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. 'We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children,' he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink."

Robert may have been pretty drunk, but in vino veritas.  When his inhibitions are lowered, his true character comes out from under the superficial charm.  The rapist, the physical abuser, the irresponsible, lazy ruler, the guy that professes love constantly but means none of it to anyone.  That "we are too weak" would definitely speak to Joffrey's sense of what strength is:  bold, decisive, ruthless action.  Strength is not having the "soft hearts" of women.  This is not at all merciful.  It's callous and basically says your life isn't worth living if you can't be a strong, able-bodied man.  He's comparing Bran to a lame horse or dog.  Just as in training yard, JOffrey complains about the howling wolves keeping him up at night.  It's an unpleasant annoyance that should be put down and the one who does it proves he is not "too weak" to lose their resolve.  And we know Joffrey takes pleasure in killing animals, which I suppose makes him feel like the hunter that Robert is.  

Altogether I think the profile makes it more than clear that Joffrey could act completely on his own.  The sloppiness of it is totally consistent with a juvenile crime and his psychological profile.  As for his part, Littlefinger is taking a risk in telling a lie that can be discredited when you look into it, but when has LF ever been risk averse?  He loves dancing close to the edge of being exposed for the thrill of getting away with it.  He's taking advantage of the already existing Lannister suspicion (Lysa's letter and the poisoning of Jon Arryn which he prompted) and playing on Cat's brotherly love for him, all of which is reasonably credible as far as Cat knows.  LF knows a good opportunity when he sees it.  The catspaw plot was icing on the cake.  If it wasn't the catspaw, you can bet he would have taken advantage of any other scenario that arose from starting the conflict.  And he continued to instigate by whispering in Joff's ear to execute Ned.  He doesn't have to precisely control everything.  Just set the ball in motion and give it a few kicks now and then, while fully knowing there are other player involved who will do what they may.  It's not a grand conspiracy, it's serendipity where the catspaw meets LF's existing machinations.  Maybe that is a little too convenient timing and feels heavy-handed of the author for some tastes, but it's nothing wildly implausible or damaging to the overall plot.  I see no reason to project a grand conspiracy onto a plot where none is required to make it work.                

 

     

[Seams]

A few thoughts about hints below the surface:

1) Although a number of comments have noted the Valyrian Steel blade, I don't believe anyone has discussed the dragonbone handle of the dagger. At this point in the books, the only dragonbone weapons have been given to Dany: a dragonbone bow as a wedding gift from a Dothraki warrior (I believe) and a whip with gold claws, called The Harpy, when she buys the Unsullied from Kraznys mo Nakloz. Does a dragonbone handle suggest that the dagger was originally a Targaryen weapon? Does that matter?

5 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

My understanding was initially he chose such a conspicuous dagger because he is a kid and thought "this dagger is effing sick!"  That's pretty believable when you consider juvenile crime is often impulsive, sloppy, and not particularly well thought out.  . . .  But you bring up an interesting point about the princely dagger being an extension of himself, or representing his self-image.    

Far from thinking such a dagger is conspicuous, handsome or representative of his self-image, Joffrey thinks a dragonbone handle is too plain. When Tyrion offers to get him a dagger with a dragonbone handle as a replacement wedding gift, Joffrey instead insists on a gold handle with rubies to match his new sword.

2) The word "mercy" keeps coming up in this discussion, but the catspaw has several lines:

"You weren't s'posed to be here."

"No one was s'posed to be here."

"It's a mercy. He's dead already."

The words "mercy" and "no one" are associated with Arya's sojourn with the Faceless Men. (You could make a case that they also reappear in Theon's scene in the godswood in ADwD The Turncloak and A Ghost in Winterfell - Theon asks for "Strength? Courage? Mercy?" and tries to remember his name although he admits, "Reek is no man.")

3) The catspaw stinks - Catelyn finds his stench overpowering. Theon as Reek is also known by his smell. (As is Tywin Lannister.)

4) The catspaw has hidden in the stables. With several of the Starks compared to horses (Ned, Lyanna, Arya), I think it would really be worthwhile to decipher the meaning of stableboys but, I admit, I'm not sure how to proceed. At their first encounter, Aegon is taken for a stableboy by Ser Duncan the Tall. Arya's first kill is a stable boy who tries to prevent her escape from King's Landing. Sansa is distressed by a creepy stableboy who stares at her chest. Hodor is a stableboy.

On the other hand, the catspaw might stink for reasons beyond having slept in the stable. What if he is a Reek-like character? At least part of Theon's stench comes from sleeping with Ramsay's Girls in the dog kennel.

5) Daggers seem to be special weapons. (IRL, this is consistent with their use in ancient rituals, some of which may have involved human sacrifice.) I think we see one in the first POV chapter, raising the Gared / ragged / dragged / dagger association with the deserter / turncloak. Jon Snow (soon to become a turncloak) makes himself an "ugly" dagger with a wooden handle and a blade from the obsidian cache at the Fist. Theon is associated with a dagger after he is maimed by Ramsay Snow and he feels unable to use a sword. But Lady Dustin protests his innocence after Bolton's inner circle demands to see his maimed hands:

"Look at him. Hold a dagger? He hardly has the strength to hold a spoon. Do you truly think he could have overcome the Bastard's disgusting creature and shoved his manhood down his throat?" (ADwD, A Ghost in Winterfell)

I better clarify: I don't think the parallels to the Theon chapter are telling us that Theon hired the catspaw. I just think it could be helpful to examine other arcs that use similar settings and details, to see whether we can make inferences. The way GRRM returns to symbols and motifs is never an exact copy of his previous combination of elements, but the catspaw chapter and Theon's A Ghost in Winterfell chapter both feature mysterious murders (or an attempted murder) at Winterfell. In Theon's ADwD chapters, he has injured hands and a dog licks his hand. In the catspaw chapter, Catelyn has injured hands and a direwolf licks her hand. Theon compares himself to a ghost but the catspaw seemed to say that Bran was the one who was already dead. Many people have noted that Theon's desperate plea at the pool before the heart tree results in an apparent connection with Bran (and a red leaf that introduces yet another bloody hand). Theon and Bran both make journeys north through the snow after their stays at Winterfell.

This may also be relevant:

“I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King’s Landing.” He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. “It’s mine.” (AGOT, Catelyn IV)

Littlefinger uses the dagger to "murder" an oak door. Theon has committed treason. Bran is sort of a tree's son when he sees through the eyes of the heart tree.

The word "quivering" might also support the comments here that support Bloodraven's involvement in the catspaw episode. He is associated with archers and arrows are carried in quivers.

None of this eliminates the Joffrey theories, either. I think Joffrey is a mini-Jaime and a lot of his actions foreshadow or echo Jaime's actions. Jaime did push Bran off the wall "for love." Maybe Joffrey was echoing Jaime in hiring the catspaw. Catelyn nearly choking under the strong grip of the catspaw reads similarly to Joff's death by choking.

[the trees have eyes]

On 16/11/2017 at 9:47 PM, John Suburbs said:

This is why I prefer my Joffrey-inspired-by-Littlefinger proposal: it conforms to the text and GR's statements while still leaving room for a nice reveal later that clears up all of this dissatisfaction among readers that Martin made a boner of this mystery.

I've seen you make this argument a number of times.  While it may be more satisfying to you, you surely have to acknowledge that this is not what GRRM wrote and that although you may have preferred him to write the version you approve of more he actually wrote the version in print.

As a poster helpfully linked, this is something he is aware of himself.

On 16/11/2017 at 9:12 PM, Nittanian said:

Yep, as George remarked, "The problem with all this speculating is that some of you are bound to guess the answers before I reveal 'em... and others may even come up with better answers than I do. Well, those are the risks one takes with such a project." 

This seems a case of you thinking you have come up with a better answer than GRRM in fact did.    You're not alone in this: I see a few in this thread who are seldom satisfied with what the answers the author comes up with but each to their own.

On 16/11/2017 at 9:47 PM, John Suburbs said:

Before they left KL, Littlefinger tells Joffrey that Ned becoming hand is bad for Robert, Cersei, House Lannister and even Joffrey himself, and the only thing that could prevent this is the death of one of Ned's children. Then, the actual clumsy plan and the stupid decision to use Robert's knife is all Joffrey. If Bran hadn't fallen, it would have been one of the other children, probably Sansa.

But again none of this is in the books.  In the version of the story you find most compelling it is logical and reasoned and will in due course be revealed but we can all let our creative imagination run ahead of the text if we let oursleves.  The only story in town is GRRM's and when asked about this - and it's worth highlighting this was around 20 years ago - he told us the answer to the catspaw killer was dedutcible from the first two books and would be cleared up in ASOS.  

Now I know you can say that there is more to it and that at some point LF's hidden influence on the Crown Prince will be revealed but you also have to acknowledge that there isn't anything in text to even hint at this.  Joffrey is dead and nothing in story has hinted at him being an agent of LF's stalking the Stark children at Winterfell and afterwards to achieve his master's instructions.  Lysa gave us the answer of the mystery of Jon Arryn's death and a nice unexpected bit of exposition for the reader it was too but there is no hint he was behind the hit on Bran as well.

On 16/11/2017 at 9:47 PM, John Suburbs said:

So now we have a clearer motive for Joffrey, being manipulated by LF, just as occurs later in the books, and we can square that with Martin's statements confirming who sent the catspaw: it was Joffrey, but LF, as usual, was the behind-the-scenes instigator. And all this can happen without LF having to know about Bran's fall or anything else that has happened at Winterfell.

Why clear up one mystery if actually you didn't clear it up?  The version written does not have this and it does not need  this.  To truncate your statement all this can happen without LF and it seems that's the way GRRM sees it too.

On 17/11/2017 at 9:47 AM, mormont said:

In the end, though, the really compelling evidence is that there is no reason to think we'll ever revisit the topic. You have to remember that these books are a story, not a game. I know some people would prefer to think that there is a 'secret' answer that only clever, perceptive people will see: the 'that's too obvious' argument is used frequently on this forum to justify a range of complex theories. But that's not what the books are about. They're stories first and foremost and the majority of readers will engage with them as such. The idea that the author threw out a red herring (twice) to throw these readers off the 'true' answer to a mystery he has said he does not intend to revisit, and has shown no signs that he will ever revisit, is simply not tenable. The answer is given in the text. Joff did it. 

Amen.  The books are written as stories to be enjoyed and while careful reading and rereading can uncover new aspects or hidden gems - the "I didn't notice that when I first read it" or "I only truly appreciate that passage or plot development now I know what happened next" - this is a testament to GRRM's skill.  The idea is not to leave the reader ignorant of what really happened (save for the few who study the text and uncover the hidden meaning locked within it of course) but to reveal the truth in a satisfying and usually shocking way.  It's not as dramatic as Lysa's revelation of poisoning Jon Arryn but there it is.

In general, I see Mance, Robert, Myrcella (troll alert) being argued for as the instigators in this thread but the only person who is considered in the text of ASOS as a suspect - and this is deduced by two POV characters independently, one of whom happens to be the boy's father - is Joffrey.  The author told us it would be resolved in ASOS and voila: QED.  It may be fun to speculate that someone else did it but the guy with the beard moved on from this mystery two decades ago and so should we.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

Hey @Seams!  Glad to see your input.  I love that you brought up the dragonbone hilt!  Not enough attention gets paid to hilts and pommels.  Lemme just address this first:

3 hours ago, Seams said:

Far from thinking such a dagger is conspicuous, handsome or representative of his self-image, Joffrey thinks a dragonbone handle is too plain. When Tyrion offers to get him a dagger with a dragonbone handle as a replacement wedding gift, Joffrey instead insists on a gold handle with rubies to match his new sword.

So here's the passage:

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Tyrion was staring at his nephew with his mismatched eyes. "Perhaps a knife, sire. To match your sword. A dagger of the same fine Valyrian steel . . . with a dragonbone hilt, say?"

Joff gave him a sharp look. "You . . . yes, a dagger to match my sword, good." He nodded. "A . . . a gold hilt with rubies in it. Dragonbone is too plain."

It doesn't read to me that Joffrey honestly thinks dragonbone is too plain for him... it's that he just got busted by Tyrion who is telling him he knows about the dagger and he's making an excuse.  He was caught off guard, was about to react then switched gears to distance himself from the attempted murder weapon.  I am going to adjust my opinion a bit on why Joffrey picked that dagger.  You're right he probably didn't chose it because it was cool looking.  It still has significance to the distant dysfunctional father he desperately wants to identify with for paternity's sake.  It was the dagger Robert won at Joffrey's 12th nameday tourney.  In many years of parental neglect and moments of abuse, Robert being present to celebrate Joffrey's birthday probably felt like real moment of acknowledgement as his son.  At 12 Joffrey is getting closer to manhood where comparisons to the father are going to be more frequent and scrutinizing, especially as he is Robert's heir.  He probably chose the dagger because it's Robert's dagger from an event that links them as father and son.  And even more personal significance about the dagger at the tourney feast:

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"Tyrion always backed me in the lists," Jaime said, "but that day Ser Loras unhorsed me. A mischance, I took the boy too lightly, but no matter. Whatever my brother wagered, he lost . . . but that dagger did change hands, I recall it now. Robert showed it to me that night at the feast. His Grace loved to salt my wounds, especially when drunk. And when was he not drunk?"

Robert shows "Uncle Jaime" the dagger to rub it in his face that he lost!  As I said I do believe Joffrey deep down knows about the incest, but cannot express that rage except in his acting out and patterns of largely unconscious choices.  Seems like everyone was betting on Jaime, except Robert. The dagger in question represents Uncle Jaime being punished by Robert, "salting his wounds.  As far as Jaime's real karmic punishment for what he actually did to Bran goes, he did lose his sword arm, the same arm that did the shoving out the window.  

4 hours ago, Seams said:

Does a dragonbone handle suggest that the dagger was originally a Targaryen weapon? Does that matter?

That's really interesting.  Robert wants every last Targaryen eradicated from the world and he fears what Dany's marriage to Khal Drogo could mean.  His reign began with the murder of dragon children and I think as a karmic justice he was denied legitimate children of his own body.  He did fear a Dothraki invasion early on while everyone thought it impossible.  It could be a Dothraki (literary) connection as well as they highly value bows made of it.  It's lighter and more flexible than steel, but also stronger, doesn't burn, and has a high iron content that makes it dark.  There might be something there to figure out in the symbolic sense.  I can't quite wrap my brain around it yet either.  It might be comparable to a dragon's tooth and a hidden dagger:

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Arya got to her feet, moving warily. The heads were all around her. She touched one, curious, wondering if it was real. Her fingertips brushed a massive jaw. It felt real enough. The bone was smooth beneath her hand, cold and hard to the touch. She ran her fingers down a tooth, black and sharp, a dagger made of darkness. It made her shiver.

It's a good weapon for someone without much martial skill don't you think?  It's super sharp and lightweight.  You can do a lot of damage without much force.  As you said Littlefinger wields it pretty deftly.  The dark handle makes me think of "daggers in the dark"

The dagger is still in play as far as the future of the story goes and it came full circle back to the original owner.  It was the dagger he pulled from Ned Starks's belt to hold to his throat:

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Ned slid the dagger that Catelyn had brought him out of the sheath on his belt. The Imp's knife. Why would the dwarf want Bran dead? To silence him, surely. Another secret, or only a different strand of the same web?

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As his men died around him, Littlefinger slid Ned's dagger from its sheath and shoved it up under his chin. His smile was apologetic. "I did warn you not to trust me, you know."

And then used to cut fruit for Sansa with the blood orange being particularly relevant:

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"So one of the Kettleblacks put the poison in Joff's cup?" Ser Osmund had been near the king all night, she remembered.

"Did I say that?" Lord Petyr cut the blood orange in two with his dagger and offered half to Sansa. "The lads are far too treacherous to be part of any such scheme . . . and Osmund has become especially unreliable since he joined the Kingsguard. That white cloak does things to a man, I find. Even a man like him." He tilted his chin back and squeezed the blood orange, so the juice ran down into his mouth. "I love the juice but I loathe the sticky fingers," he complained, wiping his hands. "Clean hands, Sansa. Whatever you do, make certain your hands are clean."

It has to be the same dagger.  No other dagger would be as significant as the dagger held to her father's throat when they discuss the assassination of Joffrey.  Especially with the image of LF tilting his head back and exposing this own throat as he explains how it was all done.  

I'm also thinking about Joffrey's penchant for finding humor in animals and sigils killing or eating their own kind.  Send a dog to kill a wolf, he wants to serve Robb's head to Sansa to eat it, etc. then there's:

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"Viserys. The last son of Mad King Aerys. He's been going about the Free Cities since before I was born, calling himself a king. Well, Mother says the Dothraki finally crowned him. With molten gold." He laughed. "That's funny, don't you think? The dragon was their sigil. It's almost as good as if some wolf killed your traitor brother. Maybe I'll feed him to wolves after I've caught him. Did I tell you, I intend to challenge him to single combat?"

It wasn't actually gold dragons that killed Viserys, but we get the idea.  Gold = dragons = Targaryens.  Dragons killing a dragon.  None of these things actually work out like Joffrey says.  Yes a dragon tried to kill a dragon, but it was Viserys who was the aggressor on Dany.  Funny enough, even Dany comments that the Usurper owes Drogo a lordship for killing Viserys as he has decreed as a reward.  The catspaw was paid in silver stags using a stag's dagger by a wannabe stag.  Perhaps what "stinks" about the catspaw is the lie surrounding the dagger.  The main lie is that LF says Tyrion won the dagger at the tourney, not Robert.  Sleeping in the stables could mean there's a "horseshit" here, but not the kind the character's might think.  It's the truth that gets doubted and the lie that gets believed, even when there are gaping holes in the false story.  Smelling is often linked to detecting the truth in the story.  The catspaw stinks of horseshit, but it's the sweet minty breath of Petyr that is believed. It's actually more like the wannabe stag is really a cat that sent a catspaw to kill a Cat who got misdirected into blaming the wrong cat.  It's this incident that sets the lions to begin to questions and turn on each other.  

 

         

[Lady Barbrey]

5 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

 

Amen.  The books are written as stories to be enjoyed and while careful reading and rereading can uncover new aspects or hidden gems - the "I didn't notice that when I first read it" or "I only truly appreciate that passage or plot development now I know what happened next" - this is a testament to GRRM's skill.  The idea is not to leave the reader ignorant of what really happened (save for the few who study the text and uncover the hidden meaning locked within it of course) but to reveal the truth in a satisfying and usually shocking way.  It's not as dramatic as Lysa's revelation of poisoning Jon Arryn but there it is.

In general, I see Mance, Robert, Myrcella (troll alert) being argued for as the instigators in this thread but the only person who is considered in the text of ASOS as a suspect - and this is deduced by two POV characters independently, one of whom happens to be the boy's father - is Joffrey.  The author told us it would be resolved in ASOS and voila: QED.  It may be fun to speculate that someone else did it but the guy with the beard moved on from this mystery two decades ago and so should we.

I take your point, but I have to say the resolution is not in any way 'a testament to George's skill' and is why many of us have looked for alternative solutions.  It's the driving mystery of the first book, carrying into the second, and to have a couple of characters say 'Joff must have done it as a mercy-killing to impress his dad' (who he can never impress because he can never tell him) was so weak it was laughable.

Moreover, the attack takes place just after Bran starts green-dreaming, so the only plausible motive for murdering a kid who might die anyway (unless it was Cersei or Jaime) was someone mystical becoming aware of that and wanting to take out this potentially powerful greenseer, thus the scrabbled together plan.

So I'm holding out hope Martin's misleading us until the last page of the series has turned because otherwise the solution was just badly-written.  I guess I can accept that, but why bother until I absolutely must.

[Nittanian]

11 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

This seems a case of you thinking you have come up with a better answer than GRRM in fact did.    You're not alone in this: I see a few in this thread who are seldom satisfied with what the answers the author comes up with but each to their own.

Oh, I'm fine with the Joffrey reveal. I just wanted to point out GRRM's realization.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

6 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

I take your point, but I have to say the resolution is not in any way 'a testament to George's skill' and is why many of us have looked for alternative solutions.  It's the driving mystery of the first book, carrying into the second, and to have a couple of characters say 'Joff must have done it as a mercy-killing to impress his dad' (who he can never impress because he can never tell him) was so weak it was laughable.

As motives go, Joffrey trying to emulate Robert (in his own mind at least) isn't all that unbelievable. The wretched little shit did worship his royal father, sort of.

6 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Moreover, the attack takes place just after Bran starts green-dreaming, so the only plausible motive for murdering a kid who might die anyway (unless it was Cersei or Jaime) was someone mystical becoming aware of that and wanting to take out this potentially powerful greenseer, thus the scrabbled together plan.

No. Far from "only plausible". Actually, far from "plausible", given that no such mystical-employer-of-common-thugs has been even hinted at.

6 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

So I'm holding out hope Martin's misleading us until the last page of the series has turned because otherwise the solution was just badly-written.  I guess I can accept that, but why bother until I absolutely must.

 

Oh, the solution is badly written, few people argue that. GRRM is perfectly capable of delivering material of questionable quality, the Meereeneese (the correct amount of 'e's, I hope?) Knot can be the ultimate proof of that.

For example, why the obvious, inevitable question, "why at all give the assassin a dagger?", asked many a time on this forum alone, is carefully avoided by all characters in the books? Because GRRM hasn't invented a passably good reason, and prefers us not to think about it too much.

But the solution he decided on at least works, without inventing too much additional elements, unlike the forum-made alternatives.

[mormont]

Anyone who thinks there's going to be an additional reveal on this is going to be disappointed: as is anyone who imagines they're going to be satisfied with the solution to every mystery in the series. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

On 11/17/2017 at 4:47 AM, mormont said:

But there is not going to be any such reveal. The issue is closed. GRRM has told us the solution is there: there's no reason to revisit it, and GRRM has not done so in two books. 

As for Joff's motive, like I said, it doesn't really matter if Jaime is right about trying to win Robert's favour or if it's more nuanced (as I said, I prefer a slightly different view where Joff was trying to prove to himself that he was worthy by doing what his father only talked about, but either works, and there can be other variations). The only bit that matters is that overhearing Robert's remark is the inciting event. Given how screwed up Joff's psyche is, there can be multiple reasons why that incites him to action.

In the end, though, the really compelling evidence is that there is no reason to think we'll ever revisit the topic. You have to remember that these books are a story, not a game. I know some people would prefer to think that there is a 'secret' answer that only clever, perceptive people will see: the 'that's too obvious' argument is used frequently on this forum to justify a range of complex theories. But that's not what the books are about. They're stories first and foremost and the majority of readers will engage with them as such. The idea that the author threw out a red herring (twice) to throw these readers off the 'true' answer to a mystery he has said he does not intend to revisit, and has shown no signs that he will ever revisit, is simply not tenable. The answer is given in the text. Joff did it. 

Stories should make sense...

This isn't an explanation, not only is it not satisfying it doesn't make sense and frankly states as fact things that cannot possibly be so clear cut.

The issue isn't closed, the series isn't over, it's remarkable that this is the biggest defense of the case against Joff, the author said we could figure it out so it must be the guy Tyrion thinks it is?

It literally doesn't even make sense... 

Not the Weapon (why the fuck was the assassin given a weapon at all?)

Not the Motive (which I still don't understand, did Joff do it to impress dad and not realize he couldn't brag about it later or are you really claiming he was acting out of what he felt was mercy and goodness? Because that doesn't sound like Joff) 

Not even the situation, honestly does Joff ever do anything like this at any other time, or even suggest it? And what he told the assassin to wait a few days after the royal visit and take this one of a kind dagger, that way nobody will ever suspect?

Frankly it's really easier to believe that Cersei did it and just forgot later in her pov... would make way more sense. Let alone other actual possibilities.

Is there evidence Joff wanted Bran dead? Is there evidence he ever touched the knife at all, in his life? Is there evidence he knew, talked to, or directed the assassin? Did he ever admit to the crime?

So not only is the case against Joff horrendous, BUT YOU STILL HAVENT PROVIDED REAL EVIDENCE!

I don't care how sure you are of a theory, if you can't explain it using the text then it deserves to be reassessed. You can be as dismissive as you want about things you can show evidence against, or quote the Author discrediting clearly, but otherwise the dismissivness of thought is insulting.

Far more importantly than this case in particular, why would you ever take this stance on a book forum? You are so sure of your interpretation that others shouldn't even discuss possibilities? You're a moderator here, shame on you.

 

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

3 hours ago, mormont said:

Anyone who thinks there's going to be an additional reveal on this is going to be disappointed: as is anyone who imagines they're going to be satisfied with the solution to every mystery in the series. 

You may well be right... but that isn't a fun way to live/think...

After all, the devil is in the details, it's odd that Bran was in the stables (where the assassin hid) when he suddenly decided to climb/get thrown from the tower.

 

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Yet now that the last day was at hand, suddenly Bran felt lost. Winterfell had been the only home he had ever known. His father had told him that he ought to say his farewells today, and he had tried. After the hunt had ridden out, he wandered through the castle with his wolf at his side, intending to visit the ones who would be left behind, Old Nan and Gage the cook, Mikken in his smithy, Hodor the stableboy who smiled so much and took care of his pony and never said anything but "Hodor," the man in the glass gardens who gave him a blackberry when he came to visit …

 

But it was no good. He had gone to the stable first, and seen his pony there in its stall, except it wasn't his pony anymore, he was getting a real horse and leaving the pony behind, and all of a sudden Bran just wanted to sit down and cry. He turned and ran off before Hodor and the other stableboys could see the tears in his eyes. That was the end of his farewells. Instead Bran spent the morning alone in the godswood, trying to teach his wolf to fetch a stick, and failing. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

56 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

After all, the devil is in the details, it's odd that Bran was in the stables (where the assassin hid) when he suddenly decided to climb/get thrown from the tower.

 

Quote

But it was no good. He had gone to the stable first, and seen his pony there in its stall, except it wasn't his pony anymore, he was getting a real horse and leaving the pony behind, and all of a sudden Bran just wanted to sit down and cry. He turned and ran off before Hodor and the other stableboys could see the tears in his eyes. That was the end of his farewells. Instead Bran spent the morning alone in the godswood, trying to teach his wolf to fetch a stick, and failing. 

Huh. You might have pasted the wrong quote. In yours, Bran in the stables didn't decide to go climbing, but went to the godswood.

As you said, the devil is in the details.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎11‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 3:20 PM, Lifestream said:

I don't know if someone has mentioned it already, but Joffrey has used "mercy" as a reason to kill someone. Eddard Stark.

When he becomes King, Sansa is begging him to show mercy to her father and Joffrey decided to cut Eddard's head off and calling it a mercy. Sure, LF must have had a hand in the decision to have Ned killed but it's not unheard off for Joffrey to consider death a "mercy".

 

After Eddard's execution:

Still, I don't think Joffrey was trying to impress Robert, heck if anything he might be trying to impress Sansa or Sandor. i wouldn't find it weird if he thought he was doing Sansa a favor or something in his stupidity, just like when he started threatening Mycah trying to show off. As for Sandor, he's a person who does practise mercy killings as we later find out while journeying with Arya.

And Sandor with Joffrey do have a rather interesting interaction a while before the attempt at Bran's life.

It's also believed by Cersei that Joffrey did sort of look up to the Hound and might have considered him a sort of father figure, so is it that weird that at this point Joffrey might have done something like that to show off or something to Sandor? I don't know if he ended up telling him because the attempt did fail in the end.

Not quite the same thing. The mercy that Joffrey extended to Ned was the way in which he was killed, not the decision to kill him. The killing itself was a purely selfish act on Joffrey's part -- to show the crowd that he was a strong king. With Bran, the mercy would be to put a suffering boy out of his misery, which is wholly uncharacteristic of Joffrey.

And this business about impressing Robert or the Hound falls flat as well. Neither of them would have any way of knowing that Joffrey was behind the catspaw, unless Joff told them, which he apparently never did. And neither man would be impressed by such a cowardly, despicable act: certainly not Robert, who beat Joffrey badly just for killing a cat, and not the Hound, who would only value someone who does his own killing with cold steel in his hand.

And no, he's not trying to impress Sansa either. He is trying to control her through fear and violence.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

I've seen you make this argument a number of times.  While it may be more satisfying to you, you surely have to acknowledge that this is not what GRRM wrote and that although you may have preferred him to write the version you approve of more he actually wrote the version in print.

As a poster helpfully linked, this is something he is aware of himself.

This seems a case of you thinking you have come up with a better answer than GRRM in fact did.    You're not alone in this: I see a few in this thread who are seldom satisfied with what the answers the author comes up with but each to their own.

But again none of this is in the books.  In the version of the story you find most compelling it is logical and reasoned and will in due course be revealed but we can all let our creative imagination run ahead of the text if we let oursleves.  The only story in town is GRRM's and when asked about this - and it's worth highlighting this was around 20 years ago - he told us the answer to the catspaw killer was dedutcible from the first two books and would be cleared up in ASOS.  

Now I know you can say that there is more to it and that at some point LF's hidden influence on the Crown Prince will be revealed but you also have to acknowledge that there isn't anything in text to even hint at this.  Joffrey is dead and nothing in story has hinted at him being an agent of LF's stalking the Stark children at Winterfell and afterwards to achieve his master's instructions.  Lysa gave us the answer of the mystery of Jon Arryn's death and a nice unexpected bit of exposition for the reader it was too but there is no hint he was behind the hit on Bran as well.

Why clear up one mystery if actually you didn't clear it up?  The version written does not have this and it does not need  this.  To truncate your statement all this can happen without LF and it seems that's the way GRRM sees it too.

Amen.  The books are written as stories to be enjoyed and while careful reading and rereading can uncover new aspects or hidden gems - the "I didn't notice that when I first read it" or "I only truly appreciate that passage or plot development now I know what happened next" - this is a testament to GRRM's skill.  The idea is not to leave the reader ignorant of what really happened (save for the few who study the text and uncover the hidden meaning locked within it of course) but to reveal the truth in a satisfying and usually shocking way.  It's not as dramatic as Lysa's revelation of poisoning Jon Arryn but there it is.

In general, I see Mance, Robert, Myrcella (troll alert) being argued for as the instigators in this thread but the only person who is considered in the text of ASOS as a suspect - and this is deduced by two POV characters independently, one of whom happens to be the boy's father - is Joffrey.  The author told us it would be resolved in ASOS and voila: QED.  It may be fun to speculate that someone else did it but the guy with the beard moved on from this mystery two decades ago and so should we.

Again, I would just point out that all that GRRM has said on the subject is true: the answer as to who tried at assassinate Bran was revealed in SoS, and could be deduced earlier. What we don't have yet, either in the books or in Martin's SSMs, is a credible answer as to why. So all I am offering is a more reasonable motive for Joffrey than either mercy for Bran or a desire to impress Robert, both of which run counter to Joffrey's characterization.

So all I am saying to all those who say that Martin just blew this one and we just have to accept in ill-conceived and poorly executed explanation is to sit tight; we probably have not heard the last of this. There may, in fact, be a completely different explanation for Joffrey's actions, or indeed, that it was not Joffrey at all, but the most plausible one is Littlefinger.

As to your other points:

I think there is plenty to suggest that Littlefinger was a master manipulator of Joffrey, ie, the dwarf joust, Ned's execution...

Martin "cleared up" multiple mysteries in the past in unconvincing, unsatisfying ways, only to reveal the correct, satisfying answer later, ie, the Arryn murder, the Westerling conspiracy...

Your point about Martin revealing the truth in a "satisfying and usually shocking way" is well taken, which is why I point to the fact that Joffrey acting alone in this matter is neither satisfying nor particularly shocking. Readers who say that the surface text explains all and there are no big surprises to come are willfully ignoring the fact that Martin has pulled the rug out from under readers numerous times already, so there is no reason to believe he won't do it again. To think otherwise does a disservice to the author whose skill you claim to hold in such high esteem.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

57 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Huh. You might have pasted the wrong quote. In yours, Bran in the stables didn't decide to go climbing, but went to the godswood.

As you said, the devil is in the details.

Nope, right quote... He literally climbs out of the godswood. But Bran, observed repeatedly as a happy child, is suddenly overcome by sadness while in the stable and goes to the Godswood to be alone... just like when he was locked in the godswood when he was younger, he climbs...

This leads him to one of his favorite haunts, the old tower, and the things Jaime does for love.

 

Quote

 

Finally he got tired of the stick game and decided to go climbing. He hadn't been up to the broken tower for weeks with everything that had happened, and this might be his last chance.

 

He raced across the godswood, taking the long way around to avoid the pool where the heart tree grew. The heart tree had always frightened him; trees ought not have eyes, Bran thought, or leaves that looked like hands. His wolf came sprinting at his heels. "You stay here," he told him at the base of the sentinel tree near the armory wall. "Lie down. That's right. Now stay—"

 

 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

After all, the devil is in the details, it's odd that Bran was in the stables (where the assassin hid) when he suddenly decided to climb/get thrown from the tower.

 

3 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Nope, right quote... He literally climbs out of the godswood

Right...

See, those are two different places.

[Lifestream]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Not quite the same thing. The mercy that Joffrey extended to Ned was the way in which he was killed, not the decision to kill him. The killing itself was a purely selfish act on Joffrey's part -- to show the crowd that he was a strong king. With Bran, the mercy would be to put a suffering boy out of his misery, which is wholly uncharacteristic of Joffrey.

And this business about impressing Robert or the Hound falls flat as well. Neither of them would have any way of knowing that Joffrey was behind the catspaw, unless Joff told them, which he apparently never did. And neither man would be impressed by such a cowardly, despicable act: certainly not Robert, who beat Joffrey badly just for killing a cat, and not the Hound, who would only value someone who does his own killing with cold steel in his hand.

And no, he's not trying to impress Sansa either. He is trying to control her through fear and violence.

But Joffrey failed. He didn't succeed. Why would he share his failure with either of them? Even when Arya outsmarted him, he was wise enough to lie and say that two people attacked him at once, so as to not make himself look as incapable as he really is. So what would be the point of exposing himself after the botched plan?

 

As for impressing Sansa. Prior to the whole Nymeria and Robb declaring himself King, Joffrey is acting perfectly aound Sansa. Because that's what he has been trained. Even afterNymeria when he seduces Sansa agin. Does he really care about Sansa? No. But he does show off to people quite a lot. In Winterfell, he tries to show off he can fight with a real sword. Then he tries to show off against Mycah. And later again when he's King he says stupid things and brags about how he shot a woman on the arm.

 

I don't really think he was trying to put Bran out of his misery but if he was trying to exert control in some way then yeah, I would believe Joffrey could do it. Whether someone else put the idea on his head is a different thing. Though LF was away and that's kind of a big deal. And Joffrey's meaning of "mercy" is kind of warped in and off itself.

 

Whether anyone would be impressed is a whole different thing as to what joffrey might believe. His mother would certainly be impressed by the initiative, maybe not the execution. Sandor or Robert, probably not. Especially Robert. but Joffrey might not see it that way. Surely the incident between him and Robert regarding the kittens in the past might be enough hint for him, but Joffrey has mostly contempt for his father. I wouldn't be surprised if Sandor stood higher for him than Robert at thatpoint in the story, after all they spent a lot of time together from what it seemed.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

32 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

 

Right...

See, those are two different places.

Right... and in the Stable Bran suddenly changed his plan of visiting everyone he knows and went to the Godswood instead, where he climbed...

I don't understand the issue... it was as much about symbolism as anything... details.

Like the assassin says "s'posed", which he says twice but is only used again once in the series:

Quote

 

Arya could not help looking over her shoulder, wondering when the gold cloaks would catch them. At night, she woke at every noise to grab for Needle's hilt. They never made camp without putting out sentries now, but Arya did not trust them, especially the orphan boys. They might have done well enough in the alleys of King's Landing, but out here they were lost. When she was being quiet as a shadow, she could sneak past all of them, flitting out by starlight to make her water in the woods where no one would see. Once, when Lommy Greenhands had the watch, she shimmied up an oak and moved from tree to tree until she was right above his head, and he never saw a thing. She would have jumped down on top of him, but she knew his scream would wake the whole camp, and Yoren might take a stick to her again.

 

Lommy and the other orphans all treated the Bull like someone special now because the queen wanted his head, though he would have none of it. "I never did nothing to no queen," he said angrily. "I did my work, is all. Bellows and tongs and fetch and carry. I was s'posed to be an armorer, and one day Master Mott says I got to join the Night's Watch, that's all I know." Then he'd go off to polish his helm. It was a beautiful helm, rounded and curved, with a slit visor and two great metal bull's horns. Arya would watch him polish the metal with an oilcloth, shining it so bright you could see the flames of the cookfire reflected in the steel. Yet he never actually put it on his head. 

 

"I bet he's that traitor's bastard," Lommy said one night, in a hushed voice so Gendry would not hear. "The wolf lord, the one they nicked on Baelor's steps."

 

 

 I don't think it's a coincidence that this is the only other time it's used.

 

That doesn't mean I think Gendry is the assassin though, just that there is a connection in the text.

 

Make of it what you want:

 

It's low born speech like is found in Kings Landing or the Night's Watch.

 

Climbing from tree to tree

 

Master Mott is the only Westerosi we've met who knows how to re-forge Valyrian Steel...

 

The queen wants him dead...

 

King's Bastard being discussed...

 

Hiding from authority...

 

No One (sees)

 

Wrong assumptions about identity...

 

 

 

 

[mormont]

17 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I don't care how sure you are of a theory, if you can't explain it using the text then it deserves to be reassessed.

It has been explained using the text, over and over again. That you don't find the explanation satisfying doesn't mean it didn't happen. 

17 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Far more importantly than this case in particular, why would you ever take this stance on a book forum? You are so sure of your interpretation that others shouldn't even discuss possibilities? You're a moderator here, shame on you.

What does being a moderator have to do with anything? Moderators have opinions too. 

If people want to come up with alternative theories for fun, that's fine. I'm just saying that there's zero prospect that these will ever be developed in the books. The author won't be coming back to revisit this. People get too far into the woods on this stuff sometimes: it's good to remember that 99% of readers don't analyse the story to the level that is common here, and that the author is primarily writing for them. 

[The hairy bear]

I wonder if people who keep looking for hidden revelations providing a more satisfying answer to the dagger issue have taken the time to read the other Martin works. Neither Dying of the Light, nor Fevre Dream, nor Windhaven, nor The Armageddon Rag include any kind of mystery that could only be unraveled through obscure clues and metatext analysis as the ones you are suggesting.

Martin just doesn't work that way. Read what he did have to say in relation to some fans discovering R+L=J:

I want to surprise and delight my reader and take them in directions they didn’t see coming. But I can’t change the plans… So many readers were reading the books with so much attention that they were throwing up some theories and while some of those theories were amusing bulls**t and creative, some of the theories are right. At least one or two readers had put together the extremely subtle and obscure clues that I’d planted in the books and came to the right solution…

If he considers that the relatively clear and obvious R+L=J clues (at least in second reading) are "extremely subtle and obscure", and assumes that the answer has only been discovered by "one or two readers" among the millions that he has, do you really think that he is including far more complicated and impenetrable mysteries in his books?

[Chrissie]

I have a question.

I think it is in Littlefinger's best interest that Cat stays in Winterfell, he loves her and if Ned gets arrested for treason surely Cat would get arrested as well if she was there. But wasn't she expected to go to KL but didn't because of Bran? So doesn't that make Littlefinger incredibly lucky? Surely he would have another plan to keep Cat out of King's Landing seeing as he couldn't predict Bran's fall?