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A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory


Chrissie

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On ‎11‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 11:03 AM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I'm all for finding mystery where none exists but come on... 

If you find an expensive gift, from a distant land, anonymously left for you, it's totally reasonable to be suspicious.

Presumably people aren't leaving Lewin gift boxes on the regular... So unless Lewin had a Myrish mistress sending him presents we never heard of, he had every reason to be super suspicious.

The rest is explained in your quote in plain English. Upon inspecting the box he found the note.

Sorry, but there is nothing suspicious about one maester sending a gift to another maester, especially if it is the GM in KL extending a courtesy to the maester hosting the king. The most reasonable assumption is that the note explaining this was lost somewhere along the month-long, 700-mile journey, or it was mistakenly left out to begin with. Honestly, if something arrives for you in the mail and there is no note explaining who it is from, do you automatically jump to the conclusion that something is afoot and start to shred the packaging?

He didn't just inspect the box, he tore it apart because he instantly assumed the lens was a signal for him to do so. That's an enormous leap in logic for a man who has absolutely no reason at all to suspect anything at this point. The realm has been at peace for years, there is no hostility between Stark and Lannister at this point (the bad blood over the death of the Targaryens was 15 years ago, and both houses fought together during Greyjoy's Rebellion), and Winterfell is not a den of intrigue that would cause Luwin to be on his guard like that. 

So, yes, unless we learn of some previous connection between Littlefinger and Luwin, we are giving Littlefinger a pretty big pass on this one. There is no reason for LF to think that Luwin would think that the lens was a secret message to disassemble the box.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but there is nothing suspicious about one maester sending a gift to another maester, especially if it is the GM in KL extending a courtesy to the maester hosting the king.

But Lewin didn't think it was from a maester did he? so I don't know how or why this is relevant.

He found a box literally introduced to us as mysteriously appearing with no note or person dropping it off... that's odd.

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The most reasonable assumption is that the note explaining this was lost somewhere along the month-long, 700-mile journey, or it was mistakenly left out to begin with.

LOL, but really I couldn't help giggling... what note? What are you talking about? Why assume this?

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Honestly, if something arrives for you in the mail and there is no note explaining who it is from, do you automatically jump to the conclusion that something is afoot and start to shred the packaging?

It's drugs... and yes.

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He didn't just inspect the box, he tore it apart because he instantly assumed the lens was a signal for him to do so. That's an enormous leap in logic for a man who has absolutely no reason at all to suspect anything at this point. The realm has been at peace for years, there is no hostility between Stark and Lannister at this point (the bad blood over the death of the Targaryens was 15 years ago, and both houses fought together during Greyjoy's Rebellion), and Winterfell is not a den of intrigue that would cause Luwin to be on his guard like that. 

Wait, Robert Arryn had already died, and he died all of a sudden... so it's not like nothing was going on. And ya it was a leap to check the box but not that big a leap.

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So, yes, unless we learn of some previous connection between Littlefinger and Luwin, we are giving Littlefinger a pretty big pass on this one. There is no reason for LF to think that Luwin would think that the lens was a secret message to disassemble the box.

The connection you are looking for is between Lewin and Lysa... Lewin was the maester at Riverrun before Roberts Rebelion.

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On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

Well, yeah, the person placing the box would need instructions to do that, but that doesn't make him an "agent." And what exactly would he be "caught" doing? Delivering a package. No big deal, unless for some bewildering reason, LF decides to fill this person in on the whole scheme just so he can deliver the package properly? I dunno, this whole train of thought sort of leads into the desert.

Again, I didn't say he would have to fill him in on the whole plot he would absolutely have to tell him not to be seen delivering it. If he is seen & is asked what he is doing or who the package comes from what is he supposed to say? With no further instruction from LF than "deliver the package" he would say "I'm delivering a package from Petyr Baelish. " then the whole scheme is going to be questioned. If LF didn't care for anyone to know he was behind the package he would have just addressed it to Cat from him & been done with it no? 

 

On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

Sure, he might look over the box to see if the note was inside, but that is a far cry from guessing that the lens is a signal for him to look deeper and then discovering a hidden bottom with a secret note inside. As far as we know, LF does not know Luwin, never met him, has no way of knowing if he has a suspicious nature. And until we read this note, there is no indication at all, particularly to Luwin, that the King's party has brought any kind of intrigue with them. But I'm willing to accept Luwin's story, handing one more piece of extraordinary luck to Littlefinger. but luck only runs so far -- and the sheer number of lucky strokes for LF starts to strain credibility at some point

I don't think it's odd that Luwin examined the package & you do. The fact remains that he did examine the package & he did find the note. If this isn't something that he would have normally done then what do you propose made him do it? I see only 2 possible answers: Either GRRM wrote what he believed to be a likely scenario & is correct or he wrote what he believed to be a likely scenario & is incorrect. I don't see what luck LF had in it as making any difference. Let's go with your opinion that it was unlikely that Luwin would have examined the box & found the note & that it was indeed lucky for LF. What does that prove? What difference does it make? GRRM making things work out for LF is the only thing I see accomplished here. Most definitely LF had no influence over whether or not Luwin examined the box & found the note. He must've thought it likely he would find it though or why do it at all? 

 

On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

Well, you answer your own question when you say "no one can know for certain what another person will ... believe", which backs up my point that LF cannot rely on this letter alone for stirring up the trouble he needs between wolf and lion. He may assume all he likes, but he doesn't know for certain how either Cat or Ned will react. But by sowing the doubt with the letter, and then backing it up with a suspicious murder, now he's really got the ball rolling.

While there is no way for LF or Lysa to know beyond a shadow of a doubt how Cat or Ned would react to the letter they obviously had a plan & carried it out the best way they saw fit. Lysa believed her sister would believe her. They had no way of knowing how Cat & Ned would react to the attempt on Bran's life either. They could only make an assumption based on what they know of Cat. The fact that LF & Lysa could not predict exactly how Cat would react to the letter does not back up your point at all IMO. The murder attempt could have just as easily ended up blamed on someone else. The fact that Jon Arryn died unexpectedly coupled with the letter saying the Lannister's did it is plenty to sow doubt & discord. 

 

On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

Agreed. All these possibilities are on the table. My inclusion of Littlefinger in the Joffrey theory is simply to give Joffrey a more plausible reason than what has been surmised by the POVs. Showing how LF has manipulated Joffrey at other times is merely to point out that LF is good at this. But there is no evidence that he did this with the catspaw, just as there is no real evidence supporting Mance or Robert or anyone else.

And I think we can look at some of Joffrey's other actions to see the hidden hand of Littlefinger; namely, Ned's execution, but also the little ride in the country with Sansa, perhaps some of the beatings that Sansa took -- and even some non-Joffrey-related events as well, like Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion on the Blackwater.

I personally don't think Joffrey needs a more plausible reason than what is already given. If we can conclude LF may have been behind it, Robert did it, Mance did it etc with flimsy evidence then why can we not conclude Joff did it all on his own? 

LF could have been behind some of the Sansa beatings - I wouldn't put it past him but I've never seen any evidence that he did or that he had anything to do with the ride in the country (if this was even anything more than a ride) 

At any rate we can agree LF is a master manipulator & was probably capable of manipulating Joff into doing many things but I still don't see any reason or proof to say he may have been behind the catspaw. I will agree it's possible but not plausible. 

On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

So not only is Luwin suspicious of a simple box left in his chambers, but he is convinced that the lens is a secret message for him to look deeper, which he does far beyond the point of merely examining the box but by disassembling it. And as yet, there is absolutely no reason at all for Luwin to be suspicious. Nothing untoward has happened with the King's party outside of some petty squabbling in the practice yard. This is a complete overreaction to a simple box, but it is the perfect outcome for Littlefinger.

But it isn't a simple box. It's an unmarked box delivered by an unknown messenger with a myrish lens inside that Luwin has every reason to wonder who it came from, how it got there, & why they wanted him to have it. He also isn't the only one to conclude the unmarked gift is a message for him to look deeper. Cat comes up with the same thing so it doesn't seem that odd of a thing to think. If you came home tonight & had a package on your table would you not wonder where it came from? Who sent it to you? Who delivered it? Why they gave it to? I would. It is indeed the perfect outcome for LF but I fail to see how that is any evidence that LF is behind the catspaw. 

 

On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

Who knows. LF is an expert liar. Ned is a sniveling, craven, power-hungry northman who will do anything to escape his frigid land and rule the 7K from comfort of KL, killing Robert, you, your mother and anyone else who gets in his way. Or even better, Ned will want you to marry his pale, insipid daughter, only to murder you when she bears your son. All kinds of horror stories that LF could spin

Yes he could have made up a great many things but there is no text to even suggest he did. 

 

On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

, like I said at the top of this thread, LF does not need to know anything about Bran's fall or anything else happening at Winterfell in order to be behind the attempt. All he needs to tell Joffrey is that some kind of tragedy must befall the Starks in order to prevent Ned from becoming Hand. When Bran fell, it would appear to Joffrey that the problem had resolved itself, but then Ned accepts the job anyway, so Joffrey has to send the catspaw. If Bran hadn't fallen, it would have been one of the other children, probably Sansa.

Again could have, probably but there isn't anything to suggest it did. 

 

On 11/28/2017 at 4:23 PM, John Suburbs said:

pass on Luwin's note is the fact that he found it at all. The most reasonable conclusion is that it was some sort of mistake, not a sign to rip the box apart. So LF gets a pass on this lucky break that Luwin is apparently suspicious of everything, even though he does not exhibit this characteristic at any other time. He also gets a pass for the extraordinary coincidence between Cat and Tyrion on the King's Road; so that's two. How many completely random, extremely unlikely, but oh so fortunate (for Littlefinger) events are we going to chalk up to mere coincidence before we concede that maybe the guy is actually pulling the strings here?

I disagree that the most reasonable conclusion would be to assume it was a mistake. When you consider the facts that LF must've believed the note would be found, Cat came to the same conclusion Luwin did regarding the Lens & Luwin did find it, it doesn't seem to be a lucky break for LF. It seems more likely that people have differing opinions & you are of the mind that this was an unlikely chain of events but many other people (including the author & the characters) disagree. 

I'm not sure what you are implying about the Tyrion/Cat meeting. LF couldn't have planned that without some magical powers. It did turn out fortuitous for LF but it was only the author that did it. There is no list of extremely unlikely events, there is only the meeting that was chance & how would LF have pulled the strings on that? 

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23 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

But Lewin didn't think it was from a maester did he? so I don't know how or why this is relevant.

He found a box literally introduced to us as mysteriously appearing with no note or person dropping it off... that's odd.

 

Yes, he immediately suspected it was some sort of subterfuge and set about dismantling the box. But why? Sure it's a bit strange, but it's just an ordinary box with an ordinary lens and there is as yet no reason to be suspicious of anything. There are any number of perfectly innocent reasons as to how it got there besides the ones I've already mentioned. Maybe it came from White Harbor from a captain who didn't have enough coin to pay his duties; when it arrive at Winterfell, Vayon Poole or even Ned himself might have said to put it in the maester's quarters, he'll know what to do with it. Or maybe Benjen got one by way of Eastwatch. Maybe Ned requested one some time ago and simply forgot about to mention it. Maybe Catelyn commissioned one -- all sorts of possibilities here.

The reason we got on the subject is that Luwin does jump to a pretty outlandish conclusion here and just happens to be right, which is an extraordinary bit of luck for Littlefinger. That would be followed up by another lucky break with Joffrey just happening to decide to up and kill Bran, than another one on the Trident with Joffrey and Nymeria, then he happens to intercept Cat at KL, and then Cat just happens to run into Tyrion on the Kings Road, Joffrey then decides to kill Ned all on his own ... and on and on right up until Joffrey literally places his chalice right in front of Ser Garlan, not a foot to the left or a foot the right, giving him the perfect opportunity to poison the wine.

At some point we have to start suspecting that all of these events cannot be happy coincidences for Littlefinger. Since there is no text suggesting that Luwin is working with Littlefinger, then I can accept that his finding the note so quickly was a fortunate turn for LF. But just as the decision to execute Ned could very well have been at the prodding of Littlefinger, so too do I think we need to give strong consideration to the idea that the attempt on Bran was as well, even if there is no text to support either assumption.

23 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

LOL, but really I couldn't help giggling... what note? What are you talking about? Why assume this?

The lack of a note explaining the lens is the only thing about this that is mildly unusual. Why would he immediately assume that this gift is part of a plot and not that the note that should have been there was simply lost?

23 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

It's drugs... and yes.

Lol, well I feel sorry for you then. Mistakes happen far more often than evil plots

23 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Wait, Robert Arryn had already died, and he died all of a sudden... so it's not like nothing was going on. And ya it was a leap to check the box but not that big a leap.

JON Arryn was upwards of 70 years old and he died suddenly. It happens all the time and there is as yet no hint of foul play, anywhere. There is absolutely no reason to leap to such a wild conclusion since there are so many perfectly normal explanations for the box, as I've shown.

23 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

The connection you are looking for is between Lewin and Lysa... Lewin was the maester at Riverrun before Roberts Rebelion.

 Yeah, I considered that. But are you suggesting that Luwin was in league with Lysa and his story about finding the note is a lie? That seems to run counter to everything we've learned about the man subsequently, who shows himself to be a man of honor, devoted to the Starks, and to Bran and Rickon in particular. Plus, Luwin left Riverrun some 14 years ago, and it would be extremely odd for a grown man to have such devotion to a teenage girl, particularly the younger, flighty daughter of Hoster Tully, not the older, more level-headed one. But it's possible.

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6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 Yeah, I considered that. But are you suggesting that Luwin was in league with Lysa and his story about finding the note is a lie?

Nope, but I just assumed a box containing a valuable lense from across the ocean appearing with no explanation was worth investigating... so more like I was just trying to be helpful?

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22 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Again, I didn't say he would have to fill him in on the whole plot he would absolutely have to tell him not to be seen delivering it. If he is seen & is asked what he is doing or who the package comes from what is he supposed to say? With no further instruction from LF than "deliver the package" he would say "I'm delivering a package from Petyr Baelish. " then the whole scheme is going to be questioned. If LF didn't care for anyone to know he was behind the package he would have just addressed it to Cat from him & been done with it no? 

 

But this still does not rise to this delivery person being an "agent" of Littlefinger's. All it needs is a random servant paid a few coppers to deliver the box without being seen, and a simple lie that it is intended to be a surprise. And in all likelihood these instructions would be delivered through a go-between, so the deliverer would not even know LF is behind it.

22 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I don't think it's odd that Luwin examined the package & you do. The fact remains that he did examine the package & he did find the note. If this isn't something that he would have normally done then what do you propose made him do it? I see only 2 possible answers: Either GRRM wrote what he believed to be a likely scenario & is correct or he wrote what he believed to be a likely scenario & is incorrect. I don't see what luck LF had in it as making any difference. Let's go with your opinion that it was unlikely that Luwin would have examined the box & found the note & that it was indeed lucky for LF. What does that prove? What difference does it make? GRRM making things work out for LF is the only thing I see accomplished here. Most definitely LF had no influence over whether or not Luwin examined the box & found the note. He must've thought it likely he would find it though or why do it at all? 

It means that LF is the most unbelievably luckiest person in the world. Just look at all the lucky breaks he gets: Luwin finds the note, despite the odds; Joffrey then decides to kill Bran, all on his own; Joffrey is then attacked by Nymeria; LF learns that Cat is in KL; Cat just happens to run into Tyrion on the King's Road; Joffrey just happens to decide to kill Ned, forever silencing that little conversation with LF just before he was arrested... It goes on and on throughout the story -- all of these completely random things continually work out exactly in LF's favor. At some point we have to start to question whether LF is this lucky, or is he extremely skillful at manipulating people, particularly people like Joffrey. Since there is nothing to suggest that Luwin is not what he appears to be or is lying about how he found the note, then we can chalk that up to luck for LF. But now you have a completely unexpected action from Joffrey, and it only makes sense to wonder if this was just more random luck or did LF have anything to do with setting it up?

 

22 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

While there is no way for LF or Lysa to know beyond a shadow of a doubt how Cat or Ned would react to the letter they obviously had a plan & carried it out the best way they saw fit. Lysa believed her sister would believe her. They had no way of knowing how Cat & Ned would react to the attempt on Bran's life either. They could only make an assumption based on what they know of Cat. The fact that LF & Lysa could not predict exactly how Cat would react to the letter does not back up your point at all IMO. The murder attempt could have just as easily ended up blamed on someone else. The fact that Jon Arryn died unexpectedly coupled with the letter saying the Lannister's did it is plenty to sow doubt & discord. 

Oh, come on. There is a world of difference between a cryptic note making accusations with no proof nor even an explanation of motive and the fact that your own son is now dead. On their own, neither of these events would be enough to prompt any action from the Starks, but taken together they do -- because now it is personal.

The fact that the murder could have been pinned on anyone merely supports the contention that both the letter and the attempt were prompted by Littlefinger, because you need the letter to get the Starks to reach the desired conclusion about the catspaw.

 

23 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I personally don't think Joffrey needs a more plausible reason than what is already given. If we can conclude LF may have been behind it, Robert did it, Mance did it etc with flimsy evidence then why can we not conclude Joff did it all on his own? 

We can conclude all of these things. I'm not making any claim to absolute truth here. But the rationales for Joffrey's actions are merely assumptions by the POVs, hardly concrete. LF gives Joffrey a far more plausible reason than mercy or attention: his own naked self-interest.

23 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

LF could have been behind some of the Sansa beatings - I wouldn't put it past him but I've never seen any evidence that he did or that he had anything to do with the ride in the country (if this was even anything more than a ride) 

At any rate we can agree LF is a master manipulator & was probably capable of manipulating Joff into doing many things but I still don't see any reason or proof to say he may have been behind the catspaw. I will agree it's possible but not plausible. 

Lol, I'll settle for possible. As for LF's reasons, we agree that the reason for the letter was to sow discord between Stark and Lannister, so why can't the same reason drive his orchestration of the catspaw?

23 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

But it isn't a simple box. It's an unmarked box delivered by an unknown messenger with a myrish lens inside that Luwin has every reason to wonder who it came from, how it got there, & why they wanted him to have it. He also isn't the only one to conclude the unmarked gift is a message for him to look deeper. Cat comes up with the same thing so it doesn't seem that odd of a thing to think. If you came home tonight & had a package on your table would you not wonder where it came from? Who sent it to you? Who delivered it? Why they gave it to? I would. It is indeed the perfect outcome for LF but I fail to see how that is any evidence that LF is behind the catspaw. 

It's just a plain, ordinary box as far as we can tell. And sure, Luwin has every reason to wonder who it's from etc., but it's a huge leap to think that instead of any number of perfectly ordinary circumstances it must be a secret message as part of some highborn plot. Cat only starts to play along at the prompting of Luwin, so there is no indication that she would assume the same right from the start.

But I will throw you a bone: Luwin says that the box was delivered to his observatory "while I napped." And that raises the oddity level a bit, since it would be unusual for someone to leave a package for a sleeping man. But not that unusual, considering people generally don't like to disturb others' sleep, so somebody just placed the box on a table and left. He also says that "my servants saw no one", but how many servants does Luwin have? None that I've ever seen, and this is all happening at night when servants would most likely have retired -- although perhaps not the ones in the observatory.

All in all, though, there is nothing here to prompt a rational man like Luwin to reach such a wild conclusion without taking any steps to eliminate the more mundane explanations first.

It is not evidence that LF is behind the catspaw. It is evidence that LF cannot be so unbelievable lucky at everything he does. He got lucky in this matter, but it is an incredible stretch to say that he got lucky again with the catspaw, on the Trident, in KL, on the King's Road....

On ‎11‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 6:38 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Yes he could have made up a great many things but there is no text to even suggest he did. 

 

Again could have, probably but there isn't anything to suggest it did. 

 

Of course not. I am merely offering this is a more plausible explanation for Joffrey's actions. For nearly three full novels there wasn't any text to suggest Littlefinger was behind the Arryn murder either. All I'm saying is, keep an open mind on this one.

My primary goal here is to convince people that just because Littlefinger was not at Winterfell and did not know about Bran's fall does not mean he could not have been behind the catspaw. This is how it could have been done. If true, the evidence will be revealed in due time.

On ‎11‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 6:38 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I disagree that the most reasonable conclusion would be to assume it was a mistake. When you consider the facts that LF must've believed the note would be found, Cat came to the same conclusion Luwin did regarding the Lens & Luwin did find it, it doesn't seem to be a lucky break for LF. It seems more likely that people have differing opinions & you are of the mind that this was an unlikely chain of events but many other people (including the author & the characters) disagree.  

Sorry, but it is a huge leap. It's just a box on a table and he doesn't know how it got there. So from that he concludes that there is a secret message inside? Does this happen regularly at Winterfell? Is there any reason at all for Luwin to be suspicious at this point? None that I can see. Luwin has no reason to instantly suspect intrigue just because the king is here.

On ‎11‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 6:38 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I'm not sure what you are implying about the Tyrion/Cat meeting. LF couldn't have planned that without some magical powers. It did turn out fortuitous for LF but it was only the author that did it. There is no list of extremely unlikely events, there is only the meeting that was chance & how would LF have pulled the strings on that? 

No, he could not have planned this. It was a lucky break. So that's two we are giving to him: the secret message and the meeting. So are we to assume that Joffrey, acting alone, sending the catspaw was another bit of luck? Then Cat comes to KL where LF is the first to find out? Then Joff decides, again on his own, to kill Ned? Time after time we have all of these seemingly random events and that always fit perfectly with LF's goals. How much luck can one person have?

Don't even get me started on the Purple Wedding.

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The reason we got on the subject is that Luwin does jump to a pretty outlandish conclusion here and just happens to be right, which is an extraordinary bit of luck for Littlefinger.

Remember, Cat figures out from the lens that something fishy is going on with this box. That means two of the three characters (poor Ned) who saw this box/lens become suspicious. You may not find it odd to have a mystery box with a Myrish lens in it suspicious, but 2/3 characters in the story do. Both Luwin and Cat are able to figure it out because of the lens. In story, Luwin's conclusion is not that outlandish. 

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The maester waited until the door had closed behind him before he spoke. “My lord,” he said to Ned, “pardon for disturbing your rest. I have been left a message.” Ned looked irritated.

“Been left? By whom? Has there been a rider? I was not told.”

“There was no rider, my lord. Only a carved wooden box, left on a table in my observatory while I napped. My servants saw no one, but it must have been brought by someone in the king’s party. We have had no other visitors from the south.”

“A wooden box, you say?” Catelyn said.

“Inside was a fine new lens for the observatory, from Myr by the look of it. The lenscrafters of Myr are without equal.”

Ned frowned. He had little patience for this sort of thing, Catelyn knew. “A lens,” he said. “What has that to do with me?”

“I asked the same question,” Maester Luwin said. “Clearly there was more to this than the seeming.”

Under the heavy weight of her furs, Catelyn shivered. “A lens is an instrument to help us see.”

“Indeed it is.” He fingered the collar of his order; a heavy chain worn tight around the neck beneath his robe, each link forged from a different metal.

Catelyn could feel dread stirring inside her once again. “What is it that they would have us see more clearly?”

 

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22 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It means that LF is the most unbelievably luckiest person in the world. Just look at all the lucky breaks he gets: Luwin finds the note, despite the odds; Joffrey then decides to kill Bran, all on his own; Joffrey is then attacked by Nymeria; LF learns that Cat is in KL; Cat just happens to run into Tyrion on the King's Road; Joffrey just happens to decide to kill Ned, forever silencing that little conversation with LF just before he was arrested... It goes on and on throughout the story -- all of these completely random things continually work out exactly in LF's favor. At some point we have to start to question whether LF is this lucky, or is he extremely skillful at manipulating people, particularly people like Joffrey. Since there is nothing to suggest that Luwin is not what he appears to be or is lying about how he found the note, then we can chalk that up to luck for LF. But now you have a completely unexpected action from Joffrey, and it only makes sense to wonder if this was just more random luck or did LF have anything to do with setting it up?

 

Luck means there was no action was taken by the lucky person to reach the desired outcome. This isn't the case with the note, LF knowing Cat is in KL, & possibly Ned's head being removed. So we have 2, maybe 3 cases where LF manipulated, schemed, or otherwise prodded the situation to reach the desired outcome. No mystery there. 

Cat did just happen upon Tyrion. LF could not have orchestrated this. Was it lucky for him? I suppose but it was inevitable that Cat was going to confront the situation in some way (something LF directly caused by telling Cat it was Tyrion's dagger) so I don't think it really mattered that Cat met Tyrion at that particular place & time, the desired outcome would have come about regardless. 

Joff being attacked by Nymeria has nothing to do with LF. He couldn't have orchestrated it & it did little for his cause at any rate. Had this not happened it would not have changed anything in the big picture. 

Joff deciding to kill Bran on his own is not unlikely IMO but if we get down to it what really helped LF's cause was not the attempt on Bran's life but his ability to blame it on the Lannisters, which he did. I'm not sure why Joffrey hiring someone to kill Bran is a completely unexpected action. He is cruel, sadistic, & spends his whole life having others do his bidding. In fact he has another person killed at his command later in the book.

I understand wondering if LF had a hand in it but what I gather from your posts is that you believe GRRM wrote several seemingly unrelated outcomes that are fortuitous for LF in an effort to tell us LF actually orchestrated some of these events himself? Which doesn't make alot of sense to me. Even if we call every thing you named as lucky for LF other than those that we know he orchastrated we have 2 things that were "lucky" & 1 unknown. It really doesn't speak to the fact that LF did or didn't influence Joff IMO. 

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It's just a plain, ordinary box as far as we can tell. And sure, Luwin has every reason to wonder who it's from etc., but it's a huge leap to think that instead of any number of perfectly ordinary circumstances it must be a secret message as part of some highborn plot. Cat only starts to play along at the prompting of Luwin, so there is no indication that she would assume the same right from the start.

Im afraid we are just going to keep going in circles on this but I will say Cat doesn't need any prodding from Luwin. All he says is there is more to this than it seems. Which is obvious. Cat mentions that the lens means to look closer, a notion Luwin said he had as well, which is what I was referring to when I said the came to the same conclusion. 

 

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I will throw you a bone: Luwin says that the box was delivered to his observatory "while I napped." And that raises the oddity level a bit, since it would be unusual for someone to leave a package for a sleeping man. But not that unusual, considering people generally don't like to disturb others' sleep, so somebody just placed the box on a table and left. He also says that "my servants saw no one", but how many servants does Luwin have? None that I've ever seen, and this is all happening at night when servants would most likely have retired -- although perhaps not the ones in the observatory.

Well I assumed "napped" meant Luwin was sleeping not during normal sleeping hours. Ned & Cat were not yet asleep either so no reason to think all the servants had retired. The fact that Luwin asked his servants implies to me that they were not yet retired & that he does indeed have some servants even though we haven't been told of them in text. It also speaks to the fact that Luwin did not immediately jump to the conclusion, he asked around about the package first. 

 

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

, come on. There is a world of difference between a cryptic note making accusations with no proof nor even an explanation of motive and the fact that your own son is now dead. On their own, neither of these events would be enough to prompt any action from the Starks, but taken together they do -- because now it is personal

Except it does cause the Starks to take action. Ned is going to be the King's hand particularly to see what he can find out about Jon Arryn's death. Which also puts him in KL & more accessible to LF, something the attempt on Bran's life could have altered & why would LF want that? Ned could just as easily have said he was returning to WF after the attempt on Bran's life to protect his family. Something even Robert would have to understand. With Ned back at WF LF's chances of meddling & causing discord shrink to almost nothing. 

 

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

course not. I am merely offering this is a more plausible explanation for Joffrey's actions. For nearly three full novels there wasn't any text to suggest Littlefinger was behind the Arryn murder either. All I'm saying is, keep an open mind on this one.

My primary goal here is to convince people that just because Littlefinger was not at Winterfell and did not know about Bran's fall does not mean he could not have been behind the catspaw. This is how it could have been done. If true, the evidence will be revealed in due time.

Agreed & I don't need convincing that LF could have influenced the situation from KL. I know he could have, I just think he didn't. Of course I could be wrong & if that day comes I'll humbly accept my big fat "I told you so" :P

 

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Don't even get me started on the Purple Wedding

I suspect we would probably agree alot more on this topic :)

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On ‎12‎/‎1‎/‎2017 at 9:51 PM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Remember, Cat figures out from the lens that something fishy is going on with this box. That means two of the three characters (poor Ned) who saw this box/lens become suspicious. You may not find it odd to have a mystery box with a Myrish lens in it suspicious, but 2/3 characters in the story do. Both Luwin and Cat are able to figure it out because of the lens. In story, Luwin's conclusion is not that outlandish. 

 

The only reason Cat thinks something fishy is going on is because she was prompted by Luwin. He comes in talking about a message, then says he found a box with a lens in it. So naturally, Cat thinks something is up with the box, or else Luwin would not be here. If she had found it on her own, there is no reason to think that she would have found it suspicious in the least.

There is a world of difference between something that is odd and something that is downright suspicious. Luwin is an eminently rational man, and the rational approach to a mystery like this is to eliminate all of the reasonable explanations first: was it a gift and the note explaining this just got lost? Did it come from Ned, or Cat, or even Benjen? Maybe Wayman Manderly got ahold of a few lenses and sent one to Winterfell and Poole just sent it along to the observatory. There are dozens of reasons why a box with a Myrish lens might arrive at Winterfell, but Luwin jumps right to the conclusion that the lens is a sign for him to rip the box apart where, lo and behold, he finds a secret message. That is an outlandish train of thought for a man who thinks along such rational lines in practically every other occasion.

Extraordinarily lucky for Littlefinger that Luwin acted so out of character on this particular occasion.

 

 

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On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Luck means there was no action was taken by the lucky person to reach the desired outcome. This isn't the case with the note, LF knowing Cat is in KL, & possibly Ned's head being removed. So we have 2, maybe 3 cases where LF manipulated, schemed, or otherwise prodded the situation to reach the desired outcome. No mystery there. 

Cat did just happen upon Tyrion. LF could not have orchestrated this. Was it lucky for him? I suppose but it was inevitable that Cat was going to confront the situation in some way (something LF directly caused by telling Cat it was Tyrion's dagger) so I don't think it really mattered that Cat met Tyrion at that particular place & time, the desired outcome would have come about regardless. 

Joff being attacked by Nymeria has nothing to do with LF. He couldn't have orchestrated it & it did little for his cause at any rate. Had this not happened it would not have changed anything in the big picture. 

 

Sorry to rehash, but it was extraordinarily lucky that the note was found at all. As for Cat in KL, it was only through her extreme carelessness that LF's informers at the dock knew she was there, another lucky break for LF. If she had exercised even the slightest caution, she might have slipped in and out with no one the wiser.

And if you are going to argue that LF manipulating Joffrey over the catspaw is implausible due to lack of text, we have the same lack when it comes to manipulating him over Ned's execution. So to maintain consistency in this train of thought, that decision was another lucky one for Petyr.

It was another stoke of unbelievable luck that Cat took Tyrion on the King's Road. If that didn't happen, Ned would have arrested Tyrion the moment he arrived at KL. In short order, he would have to produce his evidence for charging Tyrion with attempted murder, and since that consists solely of LF's lie about the knife, which he told in front of three witnesses, LF would have been royally screwed. But it all came to naught due to a chance meeting on a stretch of road nearly 2000 miles long.

The incident on the Trident fits your very definition of luck: no action taken by the lucky person to reach the desired outcome. The desired outcome, of course, is animosity between Stark and Lannister, and here we have a Stark wolf taking a chunk out of a Lannister prince, which prompts the king or order the head Stark to kill another Stark wolf, all at the prompting of the Lannister queen. LF could not have expected a better outcome if he had staged the whole affair. It furthered his cause tremendously by amping up to an entirely new level the very thing that we both agree was the purpose of the letter: conflict between wolf and lion.

But for the record, I don't think this affair was just random luck. Joff is still trying to kill a Stark child, and Cersie would like to see Sansa the innocent despoiled, making her unfit to be queen. This is why they were allowed to ride off together over strange country with no chaperone or escort -- something that would never be allowed in normal circumstances. Even Rober and Ned, two grown men fully armed and armored, get a tail when they leave camp.

On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Joff deciding to kill Bran on his own is not unlikely IMO but if we get down to it what really helped LF's cause was not the attempt on Bran's life but his ability to blame it on the Lannisters, which he did. I'm not sure why Joffrey hiring someone to kill Bran is a completely unexpected action. He is cruel, sadistic, & spends his whole life having others do his bidding. In fact he has another person killed at his command later in the book.

 

Joff deciding to kill Bran for the reasons expressed by the POVs is extremely out of character: mercy or love for his father. Hiring someone to do his dirty work is not unexpected for Joffrey, but the reason for doing so is much more plausible with Littlefinger's involvement than without.

On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I understand wondering if LF had a hand in it but what I gather from your posts is that you believe GRRM wrote several seemingly unrelated outcomes that are fortuitous for LF in an effort to tell us LF actually orchestrated some of these events himself? Which doesn't make alot of sense to me. Even if we call every thing you named as lucky for LF other than those that we know he orchastrated we have 2 things that were "lucky" & 1 unknown. It really doesn't speak to the fact that LF did or didn't influence Joff IMO. 

No, sorry, but we have LF getting lucky breaks at virtually every turn in his storyline: the discovery of the letter, Cat and Tyrion, Ned's head, the Purple Wedding, Sansa's near-death in the Eyrie... We also see him time and time again orchestrating things from afar: the lie within the letter, the Arryn murder, the hairnet, the ruse before the Lords Declarant... And yes, GRRM has LF's involvement in all of these things hidden in the subtext only to be revealed chapters, sometimes multiple novels, later. So as I said, I am willing to chalk up a few things to luck, including Luwin finding the letter and the chance meeting on the King's Road, but it pushes the boundaries to assume that all the rest, including Joffrey deciding all on his own to kill Bran, dovetailing with LF's goals perfectly, is just more Littlefinger luck.

On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Im afraid we are just going to keep going in circles on this but I will say Cat doesn't need any prodding from Luwin. All he says is there is more to this than it seems. Which is obvious. Cat mentions that the lens means to look closer, a notion Luwin said he had as well, which is what I was referring to when I said the came to the same conclusion. 

If Cat had just found the box on her own and opened it to see a Myrish lens, you are saying she would immediately assume it was some sort of plot? The only reason her suspicions are raised is because Luwin is in her room in the middle of the night talking about a message and a box. Without that, there is no reason to think Cat would think anything of it, other than, gee, I wonder how this got here?

On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Well I assumed "napped" meant Luwin was sleeping not during normal sleeping hours. Ned & Cat were not yet asleep either so no reason to think all the servants had retired. The fact that Luwin asked his servants implies to me that they were not yet retired & that he does indeed have some servants even though we haven't been told of them in text. It also speaks to the fact that Luwin did not immediately jump to the conclusion, he asked around about the package first. 

There must have been some point during the nap when no servants were in the room, otherwise nobody could have left the box there for any reason without being seen. If Luwin was napping, it only stands to reason that any servants in the observatory would make themselves scarce so as not to disturb the maester, so this hardly raises the mystery of the box to a level where we chuck all of the reasonable explanations out of hand and start ripping the box apart looking for secrets. It's odd, but not yet sinister.

But this idea is intriguing because it gets back to your notion of Littlefinger sending an actual operative to deliver the box. If this person is savvy enough about LF's plans that he knows he has to sneak the box to Luwin sight unseen, then we don't have to speculate about Joffrey, Mance, Robert or anyone else when it comes to the catspaw: if would undoubtedly be this person, who would be one of LF's most loyal and trusted servants. But outside of Oswell and Lothar Brune, both of whom are subsequently known to Sansa, I don't see anyone in LF's circle who would be this skillful at sneakery.

On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Except it does cause the Starks to take action. Ned is going to be the King's hand particularly to see what he can find out about Jon Arryn's death. Which also puts him in KL & more accessible to LF, something the attempt on Bran's life could have altered & why would LF want that? Ned could just as easily have said he was returning to WF after the attempt on Bran's life to protect his family. Something even Robert would have to understand. With Ned back at WF LF's chances of meddling & causing discord shrink to almost nothing. 

 

Yes, another lucky break for LF. Ned initially resists the idea, both before and after the letter, and it is only through Cat's prompting, which she made both before and after the letter, that he reluctantly agrees. So the letter itself had only a marginal affect on Ned's decision. Both Cat and Tyrion rightly point out that Ned will be hand if Robert commands it, otherwise it is a great insult to the crown and quite possibly cause Robert to suspect Stark loyalty. Also, there is no way LF can know ahead of time what either of their positions are regarding the Hand or how, if at all, the letter will influence them.

The attempt has almost no chance of causing Ned to run home and hide, especially since it doesn't happen until after he's left and he doesn't learn about it until he reaches King's Landing. If he is willing to travel across the realm to find out what happened to Jon Arryn, then he will be doubly motivated to do so for Bran. The man is not a craven, and there is no way to protect your family from hidden assassins unless you find the source. And this is assuming LF cared either way whether Ned took the job or not. All he is after is chaos, and you can get plenty of that with Jaime as Hand.

On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Agreed & I don't need convincing that LF could have influenced the situation from KL. I know he could have, I just think he didn't. Of course I could be wrong & if that day comes I'll humbly accept my big fat "I told you so" :P

I suspect we would probably agree alot more on this topic :)

Honestly? You can't believe the poison was in the pie, can you? I don't think I've met more than three other people who agree with me on that. :ph34r:

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:
Quote

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry to rehash, but it was extraordinarily lucky that the note was found at all. As for Cat in KL, it was only through her extreme carelessness that LF's informers at the dock knew she was there, another lucky break for LF. If she had exercised even the slightest caution, she might have slipped in and out with no one the wiser

No worries I quite like rehashing when it's with someone civil & logical. Just because we disagree doesn't mean I think you don't make sense. I thought Cat was reasonably careful honestly, but I would make a terrible informant or spy so I don't know how much weight my word should hold there. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And if you are going to argue that LF manipulating Joffrey over the catspaw is implausible due to lack of text, we have the same lack when it comes to manipulating him over Ned's execution. So to maintain consistency in this train of thought, that decision was another lucky one for Petyr.

Fair enough. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

incident on the Trident fits your very definition of luck: no action taken by the lucky person to reach the desired outcome. The desired outcome, of course, is animosity between Stark and Lannister, and here we have a Stark wolf taking a chunk out of a Lannister prince, which prompts the king or order the head Stark to kill another Stark wolf, all at the prompting of the Lannister queen. LF could not have expected a better outcome if he had staged the whole affair. It furthered his cause tremendously by amping up to an entirely new level the very thing that we both agree was the purpose of the letter: conflict between wolf and lion.

But for the record, I don't think this affair was just random luck. Joff is still trying to kill a Stark child, and Cersie would like to see Sansa the innocent despoiled, making her unfit to be queen. This is why they were allowed to ride off together over strange country with no chaperone or escort -- something that would never be allowed in normal circumstances. Even Rober and Ned, two grown men fully armed and armored, get a tail when they leave camp.

This does ring true to me actually & fits nicely with your LF sending the catspaw theory. I wasn't really thinking of the whole situation when I made that statement. I was only taking into account the actual direwolf attack on Joff & not really about the entire situation but it is odd that they were allowed to go off on their own & if LF had spoke to Joff about harm coming to one of the Stark kids it makes sense for him to make another attempt not knowing if his first had succeeded. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Joff deciding to kill Bran for the reasons expressed by the POVs is extremely out of character: mercy or love for his father. Hiring someone to do his dirty work is not unexpected for Joffrey, but the reason for doing so is much more plausible with Littlefinger's involvement than without

The POV reasons are definitely not true for Joffreys character & I'm not necessarily sold Joff did it at all but the POV's motives being wrong doesn't absolutely mean they are wrong about it being Joff. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, sorry, but we have LF getting lucky breaks at virtually every turn in his storyline: the discovery of the letter, Cat and Tyrion, Ned's head, the Purple Wedding, Sansa's near-death in the Eyrie... We also see him time and time again orchestrating things from afar: the lie within the letter, the Arryn murder, the hairnet, the ruse before the Lords Declarant... And yes, GRRM has LF's involvement in all of these things hidden in the subtext only to be revealed chapters, sometimes multiple novels, later. So as I said, I am willing to chalk up a few things to luck, including Luwin finding the letter and the chance meeting on the King's Road, but it pushes the boundaries to assume that all the rest, including Joffrey deciding all on his own to kill Bran, dovetailing with LF's goals perfectly, is just more Littlefinger luck.

I'm all about things seeming like luck for LF only to find out later he orchestrated them & it is a possibility with the catspaw. Where you lose me is with the things that LF could not have orchestrated. The things that, if fortuitous for LF, could only be luck. For instance if Luwin finding the note on his is wildly out of the norm then it can only be that either LF influenced that some how or that it was indeed sheer luck. There is no possible way I can imagine that LF could have made sure Luwin found the note (which is partly why I don't believe it so odd for him to find it on his own) So by your reasoning it can only be luck. What does that give us though? What does that prove other than GRRM wrote a lucky turn of events for LF? I don't foresee any possibility that we will learn in a later novel that LF actually influenced Luwin in some way to find that note. So, absolutely no offense meant here but, what is the point? What does it matter if he found it because he came to a conclusion most people would or if it was luck? 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There must have been some point during the nap when no servants were in the room, otherwise nobody could have left the box there for any reason without being seen. If Luwin was napping, it only stands to reason that any servants in the observatory would make themselves scarce so as not to disturb the maester, so this hardly raises the mystery of the box to a level where we chuck all of the reasonable explanations out of hand and start ripping the box apart looking for secrets. It's odd, but not yet sinister.

They may have been sent away but not necessarily retired. I only meant there really would be no reason for Luwin to question his servants if he knew the box didn't get delivered until after he went to sleep & thus after his servants retired for the evening. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But this idea is intriguing because it gets back to your notion of Littlefinger sending an actual operative to deliver the box. If this person is savvy enough about LF's plans that he knows he has to sneak the box to Luwin sight unseen, then we don't have to speculate about Joffrey, Mance, Robert or anyone else when it comes to the catspaw: if would undoubtedly be this person, who would be one of LF's most loyal and trusted servants. But outside of Oswell and Lothar Brune, both of whom are subsequently known to Sansa, I don't see anyone in LF's circle who would be this skillful at sneakery.

I don't think it takes Mance, Robert, or Joffrey acting alone out of the speculation but it would make sense for him to LF to use the same person who he had deliver the box. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that we don't know about all of LF's cohorts either. That being said the catspaw didn't seem like a very likely candidate to be the box deliverer. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Honestly? You can't believe the poison was in the pie, can you? I don't think I've met more than three other people who agree with me on that. :ph34r:

I do. The pie has always made more sense to me than the wine to the point that I was honestly baffled when I first read on the forums everyone thought it was the wine. 

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18 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

The POV reasons are definitely not true for Joffreys character & I'm not necessarily sold Joff did it at all but the POV's motives being wrong doesn't absolutely mean they are wrong about it being Joff. 

Well, that's the whole point. The POVs aren't wrong about it being Joffrey: he did hire the catspaw, all by himself. He did select Bran as the target, all by himself. Littlefinger had no involvement whatsoever with any of this. All he did was provide the motivation for Joff to act, which conforms to Joffrey's own twisted little psyche, along with LF's proven ability to manipulate said psyche, and even the SSMs where GR says ASOS will resolve the question of Bran and the dagger.

18 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I'm all about things seeming like luck for LF only to find out later he orchestrated them & it is a possibility with the catspaw. Where you lose me is with the things that LF could not have orchestrated. The things that, if fortuitous for LF, could only be luck. For instance if Luwin finding the note on his is wildly out of the norm then it can only be that either LF influenced that some how or that it was indeed sheer luck. There is no possible way I can imagine that LF could have made sure Luwin found the note (which is partly why I don't believe it so odd for him to find it on his own) So by your reasoning it can only be luck. What does that give us though? What does that prove other than GRRM wrote a lucky turn of events for LF? I don't foresee any possibility that we will learn in a later novel that LF actually influenced Luwin in some way to find that note. So, absolutely no offense meant here but, what is the point? What does it matter if he found it because he came to a conclusion most people would or if it was luck? 

This is why I keep trying to find some connection between Luwin and Littlefinger, or some reason why Littlefinger might not have expected the note to be discovered so quickly. But I haven't so far, so I can only chalk it up to sheer luck.

It matters because no one can be lucky all the time. And if we look at all the lucky breaks LF has gotten, it starts to lose credibility. So at each turn, we look for ways in which he could perhaps be manufacturing his luck, or at least improving his odds, and lo and behold, we can usually find them:

the incident on the Trident could have been arranged, perhaps not to the degree to which it unfolded, but in some way that would have led to further enmity between Starks and Lannisters; ie, Joffrey defiling, or even murdering, Sansa.

Cat's arrival at KL, which he would have gleaned from his informants at the docks

Ned's beheading, which could very well have been instigated by Littlefinger

even Tyrion's near-death on the Blackwater, which came at the hands of Mandon Moore, a very weird guy who was appointed to the KG by Jon Arryn

and on and on.

So my question back to you is, since we have no problem seeing LF's influence behind all of these events, why do we draw the line at the notion the he manipulated Joffrey before he left King's Landing?

No possibility that it could be revealed later? Not through Bran? Not through some kind of confession by LF trying to save his own skin? Not through a smart guy like Tyrion finally puzzling it out?

 

19 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

They may have been sent away but not necessarily retired. I only meant there really would be no reason for Luwin to question his servants if he knew the box didn't get delivered until after he went to sleep & thus after his servants retired for the evening. 

He would have known if the box was not there before he went to sleep. If he wasn't certain about that, then there is even less reason to be suspicious. Questioning the servants would be the first logical step, which makes it even odder for Luwin to then make a complete detour into illogical thinking just because none of the servants saw anything. There are countless possible explanations for the sudden appearance of a box, which he summarily dismisses in favor of a secret-plot theory. Very uncharacteristic of the Luwin who later emerges on the page.

 

19 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I don't think it takes Mance, Robert, or Joffrey acting alone out of the speculation but it would make sense for him to LF to use the same person who he had deliver the box. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that we don't know about all of LF's cohorts either. That being said the catspaw didn't seem like a very likely candidate to be the box deliverer. 

 

I can't see the catspaw as the deliverer either, unless his appearance in Bran's room was a disguise. All I'm saying is that if LF does have someone in Winterfell with this much knowledge of his goals, then it stands to reason that this person would have hired the catspaw. Unless, of course, we chalk it up to just dumb luck that Robert or Mance, or Joffrey, would take it upon themselves to kill Bran.

19 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I do. The pie has always made more sense to me than the wine to the point that I was honestly baffled when I first read on the forums everyone thought it was the wine. 

Cool. I'll be sure and ping you the next time the argument comes up. It get's tiring being the sole person trying to talk sense to people who insist the text must blatantly confirm every tiny aspect of the pie while they are at liberty to make up all kinds of notions about diluted wine, trained pigeons and magical greenseer powers.

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This is why I keep trying to find some connection between Luwin and Littlefinger, or some reason why Littlefinger might not have expected the note to be discovered so quickly. But I haven't so far, so I can only chalk it up to sheer luck.

Yeah I mean if we can find some link to LF & Luwin this would all make a whole lot more sense. I think it's safe to say Luwin wasn't in cahoots with LF so that's off the table. But there could be something LF knows about Luwin that let him know he would find the note. I mean it's far-fetched & nothing to suggest it but the series isn't done yet so you never know. 

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It matters because no one can be lucky all the time. And if we look at all the lucky breaks LF has gotten, it starts to lose credibility. So at each turn, we look for ways in which he could perhaps be manufacturing his luck, or at least improving his odds, and lo and behold, we can usually find them:

the incident on the Trident could have been arranged, perhaps not to the degree to which it unfolded, but in some way that would have led to further enmity between Starks and Lannisters; ie, Joffrey defiling, or even murdering, Sansa.

Right that's what I'm saying. He couldn't have made certain things played out just the way they did but I actually suggested in another thread that Joff wanted to defile Sansa & then say she is unfit to marry him. I figured it was at the behest of Cersei but it could just as easily have been something LF planted in his head. However I think Cersei would have to be in on this particular plot because she wouldn't have allowed Joff to go off unguarded otherwise. 

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So my question back to you is, since we have no problem seeing LF's influence behind all of these events, why do we draw the line at the notion the he manipulated Joffrey before he left King's Landing

Well that's a good question. I guess I've argued against it all this time because I don't see any evidence it happened. Also because we got quite hung up on the box & Luwin finding the note which is still something I think we mostly disagree on. That being said it is quite possible LF influenced Joff & when/if it comes to light there will probably be plenty of previous evidence for it that I missed because I wasn't looking for it. The things we don't know for certain LF orchestrated are all things I believe he could have mostly I just don't know that he did if that makes sense. 

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

possibility that it could be revealed later? Not through Bran? Not through some kind of confession by LF trying to save his own skin? Not through a smart guy like Tyrion finally puzzling it out?

Oh absolutely. I don't think the door is closed on this at all. We could definitely learn LF manipulated Joff into doing this. I'm just not certain it is the case. It may be. It may not be. I think there are other plausible explanations that may be the right answer. 

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Cool. I'll be sure and ping you the next time the argument comes up. It get's tiring being the sole person trying to talk sense to people who insist the text must blatantly confirm every tiny aspect of the pie while they are at liberty to make up all kinds of notions about diluted wine, trained pigeons and magical greenseer powers

Please do. It is hard being the only one trying to explain a certain POV against a boat load of people that won't listen with an open mind. 

It's been nice talking with you btw. Thanks :)

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12 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Yeah I mean if we can find some link to LF & Luwin this would all make a whole lot more sense. I think it's safe to say Luwin wasn't in cahoots with LF so that's off the table. But there could be something LF knows about Luwin that let him know he would find the note. I mean it's far-fetched & nothing to suggest it but the series isn't done yet so you never know.

I doubt very much that Luwin is involved with LF in any way.  If anyone is involved in this subterfuge with LF, it's Pycelle; since the box was sent to Luwin specifically containing a lens.  Pycelle probably knows that a maester would look more closely at the box itself, and he's the keeper of the book of lineages, well aware of Jon Arryn's investigation. He probably supplied to poison used.   Tyrion seems to think that Pycelle has betrayed a number of people:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion VI

"For the realm! Once Rhaegar died, the war was done. Aerys was mad, Viserys too young, Prince Aegon a babe at the breast, but the realm needed a king . . . I prayed it should be your good father, but Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly . . ."

"How many have you betrayed, I wonder? Aerys, Eddard Stark, me . . . King Robert as well? Lord Arryn, Prince Rhaegar? Where does it begin, Pycelle?" He knew where it ended.

It seems like Pycelle has been meddling for a long time.

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20 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Right that's what I'm saying. He couldn't have made certain things played out just the way they did but I actually suggested in another thread that Joff wanted to defile Sansa & then say she is unfit to marry him. I figured it was at the behest of Cersei but it could just as easily have been something LF planted in his head. However I think Cersei would have to be in on this particular plot because she wouldn't have allowed Joff to go off unguarded otherwise. 

That's my take as well. Cersei has to speak with "the good counsellors" (Barry, Renly and Ilyn) until Robert and Ned return, which won't be for hours. What could she possibly need to discuss with these three, only two of whom can actually speak? Talk about suspicious. And then the Hound, Joffrey's sworn shield, is AWOL for the entire day and nobody questions why he has derelicted his duty?

So Cersei probably intended for Joffrey to smirch Sansa's reputation in order to scuttle the betrothal, but I think Joff, at the instigation of LF way back in King's Landing, was thinking about doing her in.

8 hours ago, LynnS said:

I doubt very much that Luwin is involved with LF in any way.  If anyone is involved in this subterfuge with LF, it's Pycelle; since the box was sent to Luwin specifically containing a lens.  Pycelle probably knows that a maester would look more closely at the box itself, and he's the keeper of the book of lineages, well aware of Jon Arryn's investigation. He probably supplied to poison used.   Tyrion seems to think that Pycelle has betrayed a number of people:

It seems like Pycelle has been meddling for a long time.

The only connection would be Riverrun, but that is weak. Petyr was just a boy and of too low a status to bring a maester with him. And later, Luwin seems pretty devoted to the Starks, particularly Bran and Rickon.

But I don't see any connection between LF and Pycelle. Pycelle is Tywin's creature, and LF would have no problem getting some Tears of Lys and a Myrish lens on his own. And Pycelle gave up Cersei quickly enough when Shagga was threatening to chop his manhood off, so why would he risk protecting LF at this point?

Pycelle has betrayed a number of people, but it was all for House Lannister, not House Baelish.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

That's my take as well. Cersei has to speak with "the good counsellors" (Barry, Renly and Ilyn) until Robert and Ned return, which won't be for hours. What could she possibly need to discuss with these three, only two of whom can actually speak? Talk about suspicious. And then the Hound, Joffrey's sworn shield, is AWOL for the entire day and nobody questions why he has derelicted his duty?

So Cersei probably intended for Joffrey to smirch Sansa's reputation in order to scuttle the betrothal, but I think Joff, at the instigation of LF way back in King's Landing, was thinking about doing her in.

The only connection would be Riverrun, but that is weak. Petyr was just a boy and of too low a status to bring a maester with him. And later, Luwin seems pretty devoted to the Starks, particularly Bran and Rickon.

But I don't see any connection between LF and Pycelle. Pycelle is Tywin's creature, and LF would have no problem getting some Tears of Lys and a Myrish lens on his own. And Pycelle gave up Cersei quickly enough when Shagga was threatening to chop his manhood off, so why would he risk protecting LF at this point?

Pycelle has betrayed a number of people, but it was all for House Lannister, not House Baelish.

Pycelle's a player.  I didn't say he betrayed Petyr.  All I'm saying is that if anyone was involved sending the box with letter and lens; or colluding in Jon Arryn's death; it would be Pycelle since he knows about the book of lineages and most likely Jon Arryn's investigation.  He's the likely source of the poison used and it wouldn't be unusual for him to send the box with the letter through his own channels.     

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

That's my take as well. Cersei has to speak with "the good counsellors" (Barry, Renly and Ilyn) until Robert and Ned return, which won't be for hours. What could she possibly need to discuss with these three, only two of whom can actually speak? Talk about suspicious. And then the Hound, Joffrey's sworn shield, is AWOL for the entire day and nobody questions why he has derelicted his duty?

So Cersei probably intended for Joffrey to smirch Sansa's reputation in order to scuttle the betrothal, but I think Joff, at the instigation of LF way back in King's Landing, was thinking about doing her in.

This is ridiculous. We are not dealing with the real world, but a work of fiction, and one that, especially at this point, was not particularly carefully written.  George probably wanted to have Joffrey and Sansa to spend some time together, and used Cersei's meeting as an excuse to give them some free time.  Of course, if you really want an in-story answer, they have been out of the capital for several months, so I expect Cersei is interested on catching up on what everybody has been doing (gossip, if you will).   All I see otherwise is a boy trying to impress a girl, and give her a good time.

The same goes for Littlefinger's run of good luck.  The story is full of fortuitous coincidences.  Jon was twice rescued in the nick of time.  A few minutes difference, and he would be doomed.   Arya needed an whole series of fortuitous events and meetings just to get out of King's landing, and that's not including all her later lucky encounters (BwB, Saltpans, etc.). 

With a story like this one, it's probably best if you don't try to overthink it, or you find yourself down a rabbit hole, wandering a maze of your own making, and getting nowhere.

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6 hours ago, Nevets said:

This is ridiculous. We are not dealing with the real world, but a work of fiction, and one that, especially at this point, was not particularly carefully written.  George probably wanted to have Joffrey and Sansa to spend some time together, and used Cersei's meeting as an excuse to give them some free time.  Of course, if you really want an in-story answer, they have been out of the capital for several months, so I expect Cersei is interested on catching up on what everybody has been doing (gossip, if you will).   All I see otherwise is a boy trying to impress a girl, and give her a good time

Actually this is pretty ridiculous IMO. The series was very carefully written & Cersei being tied up with gossip doesn't explain the fact that the crown Prince is allowed to wonder off with no guards what so ever. That doesn't mean you aren't correct & there was nothing sinister going on, however, there is plenty oddness there to wonder. 

 

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

The same goes for Littlefinger's run of good luck.  The story is full of fortuitous coincidences.  Jon was twice rescued in the nick of time.  A few minutes difference, and he would be doomed.   Arya needed an whole series of fortuitous events and meetings just to get out of King's landing, and that's not including all her later lucky encounters (BwB, Saltpans, etc.). 

There are some who would say Arya encounted a series of quite unlucky events. 

 

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

With a story like this one, it's probably best if you don't try to overthink it, or you find yourself down a rabbit hole, wandering a maze of your own making, and getting nowhere.

Lol! That's kinda what we do here. In the forums, if we don't over think things what is there to discuss? I mean of course you are welcome to take everything at face value but I don't think it's very fair to call someone out for looking deeper into a situation & speculating as to what may have happened. 

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3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Lol! That's kinda what we do here. In the forums, if we don't over think things what is there to discuss? I mean of course you are welcome to take everything at face value but I don't think it's very fair to call someone out for looking deeper into a situation & speculating as to what may have happened. 

I've always been puzzled by this bit of text... when Arya overhears Varys and Mopatis:

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Arya III

"And when he learns the truth, what will he do?" a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.

"The gods alone know," the first voice said. Arya could see a wisp of grey smoke drifting up off the torch, writhing like a snake as it rose. "The fools tried to kill his son, and what's worse, they made a mummer's farce of it. He's not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other's throats, whether we will it or no." 

"Too soon, too soon," the voice with the accent complained. "What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay."

Who are the fools who are forcing the confrontation between wolf and lion? 

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