Chrissie

A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

237 posts in this topic

6 hours ago, Chrissie said:

I think King Robert did it.

I like this possibility and your op has more specifics and logic than many of the theories I have seen about the catspaw and the dagger.

The literary elements associated with the catspaw are complex:

- Catelyn's nickname is cat and her hand ("paw") is injured defending against the dagger.

- Coins, presumed to be the payment to the catspaw for the assassination, are found in the stable. Normally, I suspect Littlefinger of being involved in situations involving lots of coins, but what kind of coins were they? "We found where he'd been sleeping," Robb put in. "He had ninety silver stags in a leather bag buried beneath the straw." Stags are associated with which family sigil?

- The catspaw hides out as a stable boy before trying to execute his plan. Arya's first murder victim is a stable boy at the Red Keep. Sansa is creeped out by a stable boy who leers at her cleavage when she starts outgrowing her dresses. But Bran's helper (and Old Nan's grandson) Hodor is a stable boy. I believe someone points out that Hodor might have seen the catspaw before he made his move but, of course, they can't question Hodor.

- Joffrey's line in context:

"I remember." Joffrey brought Widow's Wail down in a savage two-handed slice, onto the book that Tyrion had given him. The heavy leather cover parted at a stroke. "Sharp! I told you, I am no stranger to Valyrian steel." It took him half a dozen further cuts to hack the thick tome apart, and the boy was breathless by the time he was done. Sansa could feel her husband struggling with his fury as Ser Osmund Kettleblack shouted, "I pray you never turn that wicked edge on me, sire." (ASoS, Sansa IV)

I am no stranger to Valyrian steel, the boy had boasted. The septons were always going on about how the Father Above judges us all. If the Father would be so good as to topple over and crush Joff like a dung beetle, I might even believe it. (ASoS, Tyrion VIII)

And then Tyrion says or thinks the line a third time:

The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke. I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger's knife. (ASoS, Tyrion VIII)

Which character in the books says things three times? Mormont's raven. And ravens are fools and fools speak the truth. Boom.

But note that Joffrey is saying that he is no stranger. The Stranger is the face of death. Is Joffrey's word choice telling us that he is not the killer? I suspect he is, indeed, telling us that he is not the stranger.

I know people say that GRRM has told us that Joffrey hired the catspaw, but the only statements I've seen from GRRM say something along the lines of, "That answer was revealed in ASoS," which does not tell us that Joffrey did it; it does tell us we will find the answer or the evidence somewhere in that book. If Joffrey is no stranger, who are the strangers who might have hired the catspaw?

Side note: An early Sansa POV tells us that Renly, Ser Barristan and Ser Ilyn are three strangers. Could one of them have sent the catspaw?

Like Jon Snow, Tyrion is a character who knows a lot but also knows nothing. Ygritte reminds Jon Snow of this repeatedly, but Tyrion always cuts Penny off before she can help him to fully recognize how dim he is about things going on all around him. I think Tyrion is wrong about Cersei sending Ser Mandon Moore to attack him at the Blackwater. I think Tyrion is wrong that Shea betrayed him (although, I admit, it looked pretty bad). We know that Tyrion was wrong to take Tywin and Jaime's word that Tysha was a whore, sent to deceive him. Tyrion was wrong to humiliate Ser Alliser Thorne in the throne room, and to discount his evidence of the wight's hand. So I think there is ample reason to suspect that Tyrion is wrong about Joffrey hiring the catspaw.

Throughout the books, it is always significant to see the way that a Valyrian steel weapon is acquired. A sword might be taken as the spoils of war, but they are usually passed down from father or head of household to son or other male relative. We hear that the Lannisters bought a sword at some point. Tywin Lannister appropriates Ice and has it melted down to make two swords for his own house. Many swords have been lost. The way this dagger changes hands is unique. For one thing, we don't know for sure where it started and who owns it or who legitimately owns it. We don't know if it was stolen before it was given to the catspaw. Littlefinger tosses it around as if he is very familiar with it, perhaps reinforcing the idea that he is the "real" owner of it (and that he is a talented juggler). Varys immediately cuts himself on it. Could this dagger be like the Iron Throne, which cut Aerys and Maegor? Does the blade itself have volition? What does it mean if the throne decides to cut you? What does it mean if this dagger decides to cut you?

This is one of my favorite mysteries in the series. The "Robert did it" theory is a nice addition to the possibilities.

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12 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Yes he has to care if the dagger can be traced back to him lol. He has come to WF to ask his long time friend to be the Hand of the King. What do you propose would happen if Ned found out Robert hired the catspaw to kill Bran? Ned would not remain Hand that's for certain. He quit over Robert hiring someone to kill Daenerys let alone his own son. Robert is a drunken oaf but he isn't cruel. He would never hire someone to kill one of Ned's children.

Yeah that's a point, Ned would just quit.

I was thinking along the lines of King Robert wouldn't be put on trial and he wouldn't have to do a trial by combat whereas somebody else, like Cersi, Littlefinger, Varys, would, so they would need to be a lot more careful about what traces back to them. Wouldn't accusing Robert of such a thing be treason?

I guess for the theory to work you need to believe King Robert is really arrogant, that he is used to everyone following his orders without question and not calling him out on anything. He believed he was in the right.

Edited by Chrissie
spelling

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21 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sorry, but this whole post is ridiculous.

Littlefinger is doing everything he can to get Ned to head South and be hand.  All the better to get the story of the incest out, which will surely cause war, and cause Ned to get himself in trouble.  The letter he sent through Lysa is part of this.  He knows that Ned isn't going to let his second fathers' murder slide by.

Second, if Joffrey was disposed to harm a Stark, why didn't he do so sooner.  Bran was injured on the very last day before they were scheduled to leave for KL.  Plans were pretty much set in stone then.  I would expect him to have made him move long before then if he was going to do anything at all.

His adventure with Sansa is easily explained by the fact that he is a young boy trying to impress a girl; breaking rules, letting her do stuff like drinking wine that she isn't able to do, and the like.  Nothing more than that.  Besides, he got way more drunk than she did. 

While I, too, am unsatisfied with the solution given that it was Joffrey setting up a mercy killing, the other alternatives are even less likely.  The only other reasonable suspect is Cersei, and if she had done it, we would have heard about it from her POV.

I should point this out up front whenever I post this idea: this little game of Littlefinger's is not intended to prevent Ned from taking the job; it's to get Joffrey to act in a way that ups the friction between wolf and lion. As you said yourself, Ned is not going to let his second father's murder slide, and he will likely be doubly motivated to put himself in a position to investigate the crime if his own son has been made a victim as well.

It's not so easy to kill the child of a high lord, even for a crown prince. Joffrey could very well have intended to strike after the royal party had left in any event.

Sure, it could have been nothing more than a pleasant day out riding, except for the fact that this is the crown prince and the daughter of a high lord. It is inconceivable that these two would be allowed to just ride off from camp, with no escort and no chaperone. Even Robert and Ned have a tail when they go off riding. Sansa's POV has her drinking more than she ever had and that she was dizzy, but I don't see any sign the Joffrey was drink in the slightest. Please post some text if you have it.

So, to me, this explanation makes the most sense. I simply cannot accept the idea that, once again, a completely random, utterly unpredictable sequence of events works out in Littlefinger's favor with no involvement on his part at all.

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21 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Littlefinger wasn't in Winterfell, he isn't even a suspect.

Check my post above. In my scenario, Littlefinger does not have to be in Winterfell or know about Bran's fall or anything else that has happened in order to be behind it. He just manipulated Joffrey into murdering a Stark child and Joffrey then carried out his own bone-headed plan.

 

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3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It's not so easy to kill the child of a high lord, even for a crown prince. Joffrey could very well have intended to strike after the royal party had left in any event.

I doubt it would have been all that difficult, either.  The Stark children were all over the castle, and we saw instances when Arya and Bran were alone, except for the wolves (which would have been a problem in any case).  Or he could have privately challenged Robb to fight with live steel, like he wanted.  Joffrey had the run of the castle, and the Stark kids seem to have been by themselves with some frequency.  If he had been even halfway determined, it wouldn't have been at all difficult.

And Littlefinger doesn't need Joffrey to up the friction.  Littlefinger was doing just fine on his own, with the letter and later his story about the dagger.  I've no doubt he was whispering into the Lannisters' ears as well.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, it could have been nothing more than a pleasant day out riding, except for the fact that this is the crown prince and the daughter of a high lord. It is inconceivable that these two would be allowed to just ride off from camp, with no escort and no chaperone. Even Robert and Ned have a tail when they go off riding. Sansa's POV has her drinking more than she ever had and that she was dizzy, but I don't see any sign the Joffrey was drink in the slightest. Please post some text if you have it.

Joffrey seems to think rules are for other people, and if he wants to go off riding, it is unlikely anybody other than a KG, the Hound, or a parent is going to be able to stop him, and they seem to be busy elsewhere..  Also, they are children, and in this world, nobody seems to bother keeping an eye on children.  

Other than Sansa's comment "the wine was making him wild", I don't remember anything, but don't have the book handy.  I doubt Sansa would have thought something like that unless she had seen him drink at least some wine.  His actions with regard to Mycah and Arya certainly suggest some level of intoxication.  

I seen nothing in any of these events that suggests that the author has anything in mind other than what is clearly presented on the page.  I remain unsatisfied by the catspaw incident, but am inclined to believe that it is a retcon by the author to provide a solution to a mystery he had originally intended to leave ambiguous.

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On 11/13/2017 at 9:55 PM, John Suburbs said:

his is how we can have the clumsy attempt on Bran's life -- that was all Joffrey's doing -- while at the same time ramping up the hostility between wolf and lion -- exactly what Littlefinger wants. If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey would have chosen one of the other children, probably Sansa.

In fact, we can look at Joffrey and Sansa's little ride along the Trident in a new light as well. Since news of Bran's murder has not flown south, Joff would assume his plan failed. So what now? Finagle an afternoon alone with Sansa -- and honestly, think about it: the crown prince and the daughter of a high lord allowed to ride off alone through strange country to do who knows what? Sorry, but no -- get her drunk and then either despoil her virtue or drown her in the river and claim it was a terrible accident.

Interesting idea. I think Jeoffrey was capable for killing people for his own purposes, without even a reason to hate them.

For example, I think he tried to kill his brother Tommen by arranging “tourney mishap” during his nameday. When Sansa and Hound told him, that killing somebody on nameday might bring bad luck for whole year – having in mind ser Dontos, of course - Jeoffrey not only spared Dontos, but also tried to stop Tommen from riding. Finally Tyrion’s arrival interrupted Tommen’s sport and saved his life.

 

But I have another idea about who sent catspaw. I am sorry, it may be shocking for most of you. This possibility was plainly mentioned in ASoS:
Quote

"Oh, don't be absurd." Cersei closed the window. "Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. 'We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children,' he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink."

Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. "Were you alone when Robert said this?"

"You don't think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children." Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls. "Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?"

Well, I really think so. Myrcella sent the catspaw. Or maybe Myrcella together with Tommen.

 

Motif? The same as Jaime proposed in Joffrey’s case – mercy killing. Only we know, that Joffrey was not merciful at all. And he didn’t care about Stark boy.

On the other hand Myrcella and Tommen were sincerely compassionate about Bran.

In GoT:

Quote

Tyrion gave her a crooked smile. "Why, only that Tommen may get his wish. The maester thinks the boy may yet live." He took a sip of beer.

Myrcella gave a happy gasp, and Tommen smiled nervously, but it was not the children Tyrion was watching.

and:

Quote

"Will Bran get better, Uncle?" little Myrcella asked. She had all of her mother's beauty, and none of her nature.

"His back is broken, little one," Tyrion told her. "The fall shattered his legs as well. They keep him alive with honey and water, or he would starve to death. Perhaps, if he wakes, he will be able to eat real food, but he will never walk again."

 

And we know, that Robert justified mercy killing of Bran in front of Cersei and all her children.

So did Jaime in conversation with Tyrion:

Quote

There is nothing Lord Eddard can do for the boy in any case."

"He could end his torment," Jaime said. "I would, if it were my son. It would be a mercy."

At this moment Cersei, Tommen and Myrcella were leaving Winterfell’s morning room, but they could overhear this.

All this

explain why assassination plot was so plain – amateur catspaw, traceable dagger. Neither Myrcella nor Tommen understood value and unique of Valyrian dagger.

Quote

"We're children," Myrcella declared haughtily. "We're supposed to be childish."

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, Nevets said:

I doubt it would have been all that difficult, either.  The Stark children were all over the castle, and we saw instances when Arya and Bran were alone, except for the wolves (which would have been a problem in any case).  Or he could have privately challenged Robb to fight with live steel, like he wanted.  Joffrey had the run of the castle, and the Stark kids seem to have been by themselves with some frequency.  If he had been even halfway determined, it wouldn't have been at all difficult.

It's not just a matter of getting it done, but getting away with it. The only time we see Joffrey is in the yard and in the hall, so I don't think we can conclude that he had the run of the castle. He certainly couldn't barge into Ned and Cat's bedroom, or even the children's private quarters, which is the only time I believe we see any of the Stark children alone. There are lots of people about, all the time: guards, servants, guests... Robert's retinue is 300-strong, so the castle is packed with people.

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

And Littlefinger doesn't need Joffrey to up the friction.  Littlefinger was doing just fine on his own, with the letter and later his story about the dagger.  I've no doubt he was whispering into the Lannisters' ears as well.

The letter is a sketchy plan at best. First off, it was only a sheer stroke of luck that Luwin found it in the first place. When someone gets a package that has no note attached or explanation as to its origins, the first inclination is not to think this is some sort of subterfuge and start poking around the box. It would appear to be just a casual mistake: that the gift was a courtesy from the Grand Maester at King's Landing or perhaps from some friend from the Citadel who is now serving a seat along the Kings Road, and that the note explaining this was simply lost. So, again, an unbelievable stroke of good luck for Littlefinger.

Secondly, Lysa is a grieving widow and is not known to be the most rational of thinkers in normal times, so there is a big question as to whether Ned or Cat would even believe her claim, which is offered with no proof or evidence. But suddenly, one of the children is murdered, and now the whole situation has invaded their lives in the most visceral and emotional way imaginable. If Ned had been wavering on Robert's offer, then this would most certainly push him to accept the job to find out who is committing these murders -- because it's personal now.

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

Joffrey seems to think rules are for other people, and if he wants to go off riding, it is unlikely anybody other than a KG, the Hound, or a parent is going to be able to stop him, and they seem to be busy elsewhere..  Also, they are children, and in this world, nobody seems to bother keeping an eye on children.  

Joffrey thinks this way, but the adults around him certainly don't. He is the crown prince, not just a mere child. In an age when children die easily, Joffrey's (and Tommen's) health and well-being would be a primary concern. And yes, the Hound is Joffrey's sworn shield, bound to protect him at all times -- a promise made not to Joffrey but to Robert and Cersei. In what way could he have been busy that day? What higher priority did he have? Where did he go when Joffrey told him to back away from Sansa? Did he just take that as license to take the day off and forget about his obligations? With no repercussions from Cersie as to why her son was by himself with his betrothed in strange country where he was attacked and savaged by a dire wolf?

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

Other than Sansa's comment "the wine was making him wild", I don't remember anything, but don't have the book handy.  I doubt Sansa would have thought something like that unless she had seen him drink at least some wine.  His actions with regard to Mycah and Arya certainly suggest some level of intoxication.  

He's not slurring his words, he's not staggering... He sings, which is rather odd for Joffrey, but yes, he most certainly had some wine with her in the holdfast. But he was not drunk enough inhibit his ability to carry out his plan, if indeed this is what he was planning.

His actions with Mycah and Arya don't suggest intoxication any more than his actions toward Sansa later on, his treatment of the Antler Men, his removal of the singer's tongue or any of the myriad other cruelties he has dealt out.

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

I seen nothing in any of these events that suggests that the author has anything in mind other than what is clearly presented on the page.  I remain unsatisfied by the catspaw incident, but am inclined to believe that it is a retcon by the author to provide a solution to a mystery he had originally intended to leave ambiguous.

This is a pattern we've seen from Martin over and over again: the explanation that is "clearly presented on the page" is unsatisfactory because it conflicts with known facts and/or characterizations; ie, Cersie and Jaime committing the Arryn murder, Robb and Jeyne just happening to fall in love and destroying his reign...) But then the reveal that was hidden in the subtext comes out and it provides a completely satisfactory answer, (ei, Jaime and Cersie had nothing to do with Arryn's death, the Robb/Jeyne thing was a setup all along, most likely abetted by a love potion.)

So while I admit there is no proof, I believe the truth is in the subtext: Joffrey sent the catspaw but his motives are fuzzy. Littlefinger has been shown to be a master manipulator of Joffrey, and it is Littlefinger's interests that benefit from the attempt.

 

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8 hours ago, Pukisbaisals said:

Interesting idea. I think Jeoffrey was capable for killing people for his own purposes, without even a reason to hate them.

For example, I think he tried to kill his brother Tommen by arranging “tourney mishap” during his nameday. When Sansa and Hound told him, that killing somebody on nameday might bring bad luck for whole year – having in mind ser Dontos, of course - Jeoffrey not only spared Dontos, but also tried to stop Tommen from riding. Finally Tyrion’s arrival interrupted Tommen’s sport and saved his life.

 

Sorry, Joffrey does not go around killing and abusing people willy-nilly, for no reason. Every cruelty he has meted out was intended for specific people for specific transgressions.

I don't see how you can think that Joffrey intended Tommen to die in the tourney. Quintains spin around when you hit them, so it would be expected for Tommen's very first tilt. Plus, he's only riding a pony moving at a "brisk trot" not a full gallop, and he's so armored up that he probably didn't even feel the fall. Indeed, he gets right back up for another try. If there was any real risk to Tommen's life in all this, I would lay it at Cersei's feet rather than Joffrey's: she's the one who gave permission to ride in the first place.

 

8 hours ago, Pukisbaisals said:

But I have another idea about who sent catspaw. I am sorry, it may be shocking for most of you. This possibility was plainly mentioned in ASoS:

Well, I really think so. Myrcella sent the catspaw. Or maybe Myrcella together with Tommen.

Motif? The same as Jaime proposed in Joffrey’s case – mercy killing. Only we know, that Joffrey was not merciful at all. And he didn’t care about Stark boy.

On the other hand Myrcella and Tommen were sincerely compassionate about Bran.

And we know, that Robert justified mercy killing of Bran in front of Cersei and all her children.

So did Jaime in conversation with Tyrion:

At this moment Cersei, Tommen and Myrcella were leaving Winterfell’s morning room, but they could overhear this.

All this explain why assassination plot was so plain – amateur catspaw, traceable dagger. Neither Myrcella nor Tommen understood value and unique of Valyrian dagger.

 

Well now I don't know whether you are trolling or not, but I'll bite as this is patently absurd. Myrcella and Tommen are both gentle, innocent children raised amid extreme wealth and the finest, most pleasing company in the realm. The catspaw is a scary, creepy dude:

Quote

He was a small, dirty man in filthy brown clothing, and he stank of horses. He was gaunt, with limp blond hair and pale eyes, deep-sunk in a bony face.

The idea that either Myrcella and/or Tommen would not run screaming from this man at first contact defies belief.

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On ‎11‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 2:39 PM, Chrissie said:

I think King Robert did it.

There is also another option that I'm surprised hasn't made its way into this thread yet. From SoS:

Quote

"I wanted to see this Robert with my own eyes, king to king, and get the measure of your uncle Benjen as well. He was First Ranger by then, and the bane of all my people. So I saddled my fleetest horse, and rode."

"But," Jon objected, "the Wall..."

"The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow and walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought horse."

 

Could Mance have sent the catspaw as a means to weaken House Stark before the battle that was expected to come?

I personally don't think this is as compelling as the Joffrey/Littlefinger connection, but it is intriguing nonetheless.

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On 13/11/2017 at 7:04 PM, The hairy bear said:

George has already confirmed in several interviews that Joffrey sent the Catspaw. Within the books, both Tyrion and Jaime reach the same conclusion independently. The case is closed.

 

Link please. I can't find a single one.

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I think Mance is a prime suspect that is far far far more compelling than Joffrey. I'd go as far to say that the Joffrey theory is ridiculous. 

I think the key to the mystery is when the catspaw tries to justify the action to Cat by telling her "it's a mercy. He's dead already." The Joffrey theory doesn't fit with this at all. Of all the ways you could describe Joffrey, merciful isn't one of them. As plainly evidenced in his treatment of Ned Stark. There's even a conversation with the Hound where the hound wants to kill Bran as a mercy and Joffrey says he doesn't care. He only cares about his own discomfort of having to listen to the howling of the wolf. 

Littlefinger without Joffrey is possible. Yet it relies on him getting a message to and from King's Landing in 3 weeks. It's possible as he knows Cat is coming before she arrives so he has spies in Winterfell also the delivery of the Myrish lense. The biggest problem he doesn't need to do this because his plan is to expose Cersei and Jaime's incest and the bastardy of the children and to pin the murder of Jon Arryn on the Lannisters. A good plan as it is without any need to further complicate it and expose himself to far greater risk by murdering Bran. We note that Littlefinger doesn't like leaving loose ends as he murders Dontos particularly so that he is not exposed in any way. The catspaw if caught would easily give Littlefinger up as would Joffrey. Not to mention the chance of a raven being intercepted on either journey. It's just a stupid unnecessary out of character risk that relies on him taking advantage of an unpredictable event from the other end of the continent. It's far more likely to me that he takes advantage of the situation when Cat presents him with the dagger. Also back to the point of mercy, I don't think that's Littlefinger's way. 

The Hound talks of mercy and states a desire to kill Bran but he confesses all his crimes to Arya to try to get her to kill him you'd think I tried to kill Bran would be among them.

Mance risks a very dangerous journey to Winterfell his stated motive was to look the southron king in the face. Poetic perhaps, but completely unpragmatic when he needs to be doing things in North of the wall like looking for the horn of Joramun or just organising his army. He claims that he only learns of this opportunity to see Robert when Benjen gets the message that Robert is coming yet manages to get to Robert's party as he's coming up the king's road.So a couple of weeks? He climbs the wall walks a couple of hundred miles buys a horse on Umber land and races to catch up with Roberts party before they get to Winterfell. His stated motive doesn't add up. A far clearer motive compared to the risk he has to take would be to weaken Winterfell and the North before he invades. Killing a Stark child and pointing the blame at other great houses thus starting a war is to Mance's benefit. I would say it's his only chance of a successful invasion but we know of no wildling plan to do this. As I said Littlefinger already has this plan in motion but in a different way. So of the two who benefit most from this one has a plan we know of the other doesn't. 

Then we know that wildling culture sees killing disabled children as a mercy. Robert, we're told, agrees with this but it's also clear he would never go through with it.  

Joffrey: Motive unlikely, drunkenly speculative,doesn't care about mercy Opportunity terrible plan, easily caught, is he really this stupid?

Littlefinger: Motive he benefits but it's completely unnecessary, no mercy Opportunity It's possible but difficult and risky from so far away.

Mance Motive Sees it as a Mercy kill, benefits massively, has no other plan, alternative motive for being at winterfell is weak 

Opportunity  He's there he has silver he's hanging with the free riders. The only problem is him stealing the dagger.

For me Mance is the logical answer.

However, if it's not Mance and I hope it's not. I have a suspicion that it's a back to the future scenario where either Bran or someone else is warging the catspaw or has communicated with him in some way in order to stop Bran from becoming a powerful force in the future. Obviously I can't prove that in any way but it's more of a feeling based on a particular reading of what the catspaw says especially the "you weren't supposed to be here" part. I also think there's a possibility that this was the original plan but when George dropped the 5 year gap he had he tried to reverse engineer possible alternatives. I think it would be a cool twist anyway.

 

 

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13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The idea that either Myrcella and/or Tommen would not run screaming from this man at first contact defies belief.

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, Joffrey does not go around killing and abusing people willy-nilly, for no reason.

O course not. He probably saw his brother Tommen as a rival or maybe somehow got idea (somebody put this idea in his head), that he can be disposed in favour of his brother. Which, as we know,  finally really happened.

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Plus, he's only riding a pony moving at a "brisk trot" not a full gallop

Maybe that saved his life during first attempt to hit target.

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well now I don't know whether you are trolling or not

I am absolutely serious about possibility that Myrcella sent catspaw. I warned it's shocking :). I t fits all details. Motif, childish plot,  ignorance on Valyrian steel account, possibility to get Robert's dagger.

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Myrcella and Tommen are both gentle, innocent children

Thats why mercy was Myrcella's motif.

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The catspaw is a scary, creepy dude:

Quote

He was a small, dirty man in filthy brown clothing, and he stank of horses. He was gaunt, with limp blond hair and pale eyes, deep-sunk in a bony face.

 

Maybe catspaw only looked that way after some time spent in stables (like two weeks?).

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The idea that either Myrcella and/or Tommen would not run screaming from this man at first contact defies belief.

 Myrcella was always described as brave, intelligent and self confident. But yes, hiring catspaw is weakest part of

this theory.

21 hours ago, Pukisbaisals said:

Neither Myrcella nor Tommen understood value and unique of Valyrian dagger.

I have to correct myself - they probably knew about value of valyrian steel, but couldn't recognize it in plain dagger.

47 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Mance Motive Sees it as a Mercy kill, benefits massively, has no other plan, alternative motive for being at winterfell is weak 

Opportunity  He's there he has silver he's hanging with the free riders. The only problem is him stealing the dagger.

For me Mance is the logical answer.

Dagger is a big problem in Mance's case.

On 11/14/2017 at 5:22 AM, Seams said:

I know people say that GRRM has told us that Joffrey hired the catspaw, but the only statements I've seen from GRRM say something along the lines of, "That answer was revealed in ASoS," which does not tell us that Joffrey did it; it does tell us we will find the answer or the evidence somewhere in that book. If Joffrey is no stranger, who are the strangers who might have hired the catspaw?

Maybe this ironic Cersei's line from ASoS:

"Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?"

 

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3 minutes ago, Pukisbaisals said:

Dagger is a big problem in Mance's case.

I think it's the biggest problem but not a big problem. He states he joined the baggage train with the free riders. The dagger was one of part of a collection I would assume kept within the baggage train. For me it's just as plausible that Mance could steal it from there as it is that Joffrey could steal it from there or whoever else. It's not like Robert kept it on his person. It's even said that it's not eye catching and wouldn't immediately be noticed if it went missing.

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3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Link please. I can't find a single one.

The most relevant is probably this one:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/1999/09/
 

Quote

 

Do we the readers, after having read aGoT and aCoK, have enough information to plausibly be able to reason out who was behind the assassination plot against Bran?  

There's a couple of additional things to be revealed in SOS... but I think the answer could be worked out from the first two books alone, yes... though of course, =I've= known the truth all along, so in some ways it's hard for me to judge.

 

So: readers should be able to deduce the identity of the assassin from information in the first two books alone, and certainly from the first three. Any theory has to be constructed solely on that information.

But more, when book 3 came out, it has Tyrion explicitly conclude that Joff did it. No alternative candidate is presented or considered. What would be the purpose of GRRM introducing a red herring for this mystery in book 3, when he has already said the answer can be deduced from the information in the prior two books? GRRM doesn't lie to readers, he doesn't try to get one over on them. It simply makes no sense that he would follow the statement above by trying to mislead the readers or hide the true answer. The mystery is resolved. He has no reason to keep it going.

And, indeed, the answer that it was Joff is - if not a perfect fit - certainly the best fit. Joff has the opportunity. He's inexperienced, which explains the half-baked nature of the plot and the misstep in arming the assassin with a distinctive weapon. He even has the motive, which is to show that he is stronger than his father, and will actually do what Robert only talks about doing. You can't deny that Joff killing a crippled child fits his personality. It doesn't benefit him, but it doesn't really benefit anyone else either. You can certainly reason out Joff as the assassin just from the first two books, without need to construct additional backstory, so it fits what GRRM says here.

So, basically, it's a closed book. Joff. 

Edited by mormont

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3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Link please. I can't find a single one.

There are two relevant quotes in SSM:

1: Do we the readers, after having read aGoT and aCoK, have enough information to plausibly be able to reason out who was behind the assassination plot against Bran? There's a couple of additional things to be revealed in SOS... but I think the answer could be worked out from the first two books alone, yes... though of course, =I've= known the truth all along, so in some ways it's hard for me to judge.

2: You should know that even after all this time, we're still debating things like who was behind the assassination attempt on Bran. (...) I will tell you that ASOS will resolve the question of Bran and the dagger, and also that of Jon Arryn's killer.

Obviously the answers are not crystal clear because both mails to fans dated from before the publication of ASOS (he couldn't reveal the culprit). And shortly after the publication of ASOS Martin stopped replying to mails from fans, so that's what we've got.

It's enough, though. Martin states that the "question" will be resolved after ASOS. Since Joffrey is identified in that book by two POVs and no one else is considered, we can only conclude that it's the correct answer.

There's also the fact that the app (compiled by Ran and Linda but with some degree of revision from GRRM) states: "Joffrey steals a Valyrian dagger from his father and hires a servant to kill Bran. "

Edited by The hairy bear

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1 hour ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I think it's the biggest problem but not a big problem. He states he joined the baggage train with the free riders. The dagger was one of part of a collection I would assume kept within the baggage train. For me it's just as plausible that Mance could steal it from there as it is that Joffrey could steal it from there or whoever else. It's not like Robert kept it on his person. It's even said that it's not eye catching and wouldn't immediately be noticed if it went missing.

I have no doubt Mance could steal it, only why? If it was just mercy killing, any weapon would suffice.

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6 minutes ago, mormont said:

The most relevant is probably this one:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/1999/09/
 

So: readers should be able to deduce the identity of the assassin from information in the first two books alone, and certainly from the first three. Any theory has to be constructed solely on that information.

Well it certainly seems to steer away from Mance but doesn't discount any other theory and doesn't point to Joffrey at all especially as there's tons of evidence that points to it not being Joffrey in the first two books. He basically says nothing but I will agree that the information from the first two books now seems the strongest. 

Quote

But more, when book 3 came out, it has Tyrion explicitly conclude that Joff did it. No alternative candidate is presented or considered. What would be the purpose of GRRM introducing a red herring for this mystery in book 3, when he has already said the answer can be deduced from the information in the prior two books? GRRM doesn't lie to readers, he doesn't try to get one over on them. It simply makes no sense that he would follow the statement above by trying to mislead the readers or hide the true answer. The mystery is resolved. He has no reason to keep it going.

Oh really? Almost everything in the story has multiple possibilities from Jon's parentage to the purple wedding to just about anything. Martin is very careful about not revealing things to fans and will give misleading answers. Like his writing he often leaves things very ambiguous. As is the case here. I really don't know how you get from that to confirmation Joffrey did it.

The story has multiple red herrings everywhere. The quote implies Mance is a red herring that is obviously intentional. I would love to know why Martin does it so much if there's some philosophy behind it or whatever. But you can't deny it's effective it has people talking about these mysteries years later. 

Tyrion makes massive leaps of faith to come to the conclusion that it's Joffrey. He's drunk and angry while he's doing it. What you're reading is someone convincing themselves of something they want to believe. Like most POV characters he's subjectively interpreting events based on his pre-judgements. He's not being Sherlock Holmes or Hercule Poirot he's making massive leaps of faith and guesses while misremembering events. He's so wrong about his evidence that it would be remarkably lucky and quite humorous if he ended up being right.

Quote

 

And, indeed, the answer that it was Joff is - if not a perfect fit - certainly the best fit. Joff has the opportunity. He's inexperienced, which explains the half-baked nature of the plot and the misstep in arming the assassin with a distinctive weapon. He even has the motive, which is to show that he is stronger than his father, and will actually do what Robert only talks about doing. You can't deny that Joff killing a crippled child fits his personality. It doesn't benefit him, but it doesn't really benefit anyone else either. You can certainly reason out Joff as the assassin just from the first two books, without need to construct additional backstory, so it fits what GRRM says here.

So, basically, it's a closed book. Joff. 

Where are you getting the "wanted to be stronger than Robert" motive from? That's not Jaime's conclusion. Jaime's conclusion that he wanted to impress Robert to get "a pat on the head". A kind of analogy to Thomas Becket "who will rid me of this turbulent priest" type situation. Jaime at least supplies a decent motive unlike Tyrion who just concludes that it's the act of a cruel psycho. While Cersei supplies motive and means for Robert. These are conflicting conclusions but you choose to discard one in favour of the other. On what basis? Could it not be just as likely that Robert is whom Martin was referring? Jaime makes an on the spur of the moment snap judgement, he enters the subject suspecting Cersei. Only after she mentions the children does he think Joffrey. Perhaps because Joffrey has acted this way before. When he kills a cat to impress Robert. However, from Joffrey's perspective he did not get the desired effect, affection from his father. Instead he got a beating for his trouble. Why then would he seek to do a similar thing again if the first time he didn't get the desired result but instead got severely punished? I agree with Cersei's dismissal of Jaime's proposed motive. That "the boy was nothing to him". That's backed up from Joffrey's own mouth in conversation with the hound. Which raises another point why not just use the hound who had already offered to do it and was Joffrey's man for doing things like this. Why hire a catspaw at all?

Ultimately it seems that you're saying that Martin has concluded this mystery in a very clumsy, illogical and vague way full of author error. I really, really hope that's not the case because the new information after the 2nd book casts more doubt than ever especially if he wanted to end the mystery or reveal anything. So sorry book not closed.

 

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24 minutes ago, Pukisbaisals said:

I have no doubt Mance could steal it, only why? If it was just mercy killing, any weapon would suffice.

Same for any of them. The dagger is a mystery in all of the cases, most of all Joffrey.Except with Mance the dagger points to Robert or his family or the wider Lannisters causing a conflict between the great houses is the only way that Mance had a chance of invading the North.

He gets defeated by a couple of thousand knights who have just made a long sea voyage. Just imagine if there had been no war. So not only does he see it as a mercy but as vital to his intentions of invading the North.Otherwise he had no plan to deal with the 7 kingdoms military might.

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43 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

It's enough, though. Martin states that the "question" will be resolved after ASOS. Since Joffrey is identified in that book by two POVs and no one else is considered, we can only conclude that it's the correct answer.

There's also the fact that the app (compiled by Ran and Linda but with some degree of revision from GRRM) states: "Joffrey steals a Valyrian dagger from his father and hires a servant to kill Bran. "

It's really not enough, not even close. And Joffrey is not the only one considered, that's false I'm afraid. I don't really put any value in the first two quotes I don't think any of that points to Joffrey. However, the app.... It does seem unlikely that Martin would approve that if it's not the case. But I've also seen Elio and Linda say that they've never asked for spoilers and for inside info. So I don't know. Like I said it's bad writing full of author error if it is the case. I don't want to believe that but it's hard to argue against the accuracy of the app when I have no idea how much latitude or inside information Ran and Linda had on it's making.

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