Chrissie

A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

308 posts in this topic

5 minutes ago, Davos the Dragonslayer said:

The man who said these words didn't kill Daenerys but we suspect that he killed his childhood friend's son.

If you are not pleased with Joffrey then try Bloodraven. Maybe he warged Catspaw just as Rhaenys's cat.

He did try to kill her once...

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19 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

The question stands, why would Jeof steal the knife? The assassin got paid a bag of silver, what is the logic behind Jeof throwing in a fancy dagger?

The assassin had to have some sort of item to allow the characters in the story a clue so they could ponder on who would have sent this man. George chose a Valyrian steel dagger. This fancy dagger allows different ideas to be deduced by different characters. 

19 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

The assassin is going after a cripple in a coma, a pillow would work, why give him the valyrian steel dagger?

If a pillow were the weapon how would LF use it to point Cat in Tyrion's direction when she presented it to him?*

*I'm assuming Tyrion doesn't have a special pillow he travels around with.

The "who sent the catspaw" mystery is not George's best work, IMO. However, Joff is presented to us from the text as well as George's words. It was Joff. 

Edited by OtherFromAnotherMother

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59 minutes ago, Ran said:

In what sense is this hypocritical? I'm at a loss.

You were certainly out of order there mate. I mean I'd even said to Mormont that I didn't think our discussion was going anywhere and that I was going to stop. Yet you accuse me of keeping arguing. When I'd just said I was stopping. I just hope I haven't offended you, although I'm not sure how I might have. 

1 hour ago, Ran said:

It's Joffrey. The text says it with two characters reason their way to it,

If you respond to nothing else please answer this. Can POV characters be wrong?

 

1 hour ago, Ran said:

GRRM says it repeatedly.

Please cite one instance of him confirming it.

 

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Regarding the app, GRRM was sent the full text of it for review and signed off on it.

I guess that confirms it..... although it doesn't fill me with confidence. It doesn't sound like you're sure he read it.

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56 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

The assassin had to have some sort of item to allow the characters in the story a clue so they could ponder on who would have sent this man. George chose a Valyrian steel dagger. This fancy dagger allows different ideas to be deduced by different characters. 

But the the problem is this choice in particular... Valyrian Steel isn't some random factoid to make a connection (like say the sack of coins found in Varys's cell) it's a pivotal element of the plot... as is the attempted murder of Bran.

Besides the fact, who provides an assassin with a weapon in the first place? Really, who does that? Let alone he fact that he didn't need a weapon at all...

Quote

If a pillow were the weapon how would LF use it to point Cat in Tyrion's direction when she presented it to him?*

*I'm assuming Tyrion doesn't have a special pillow he travels around with.

More importantly Joffrey is familiar with Valyrian steel at this point anyway, so it's a spurious connection to boot... Joffrey even cuts Tyrion's book gift just like he ordered Ned's head cut off, his previous sharp Valyrian Steel experience...

Quote

The "who sent the catspaw" mystery is not George's best work, IMO. However, Joff is presented to us from the text as well as George's words. It was Joff. 

I understand that Joff could be the answer, I see how he's presented as a the solution, but frankly I honestly believe George can do better...

Edited by LiveFirstDieLater

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53 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I'm not trying to fight or anything, ceded from the beginning you are probably right about the Jeof thing and whatever else, we don't have the same access to reliable information to suplement the text...

You have the exact same access to relevant information that I do.

But again, my point isn't that, it's that someone's reasoning seemed to be in essence, "I don't like it therefore it is wrong." That's not how you can have a constructive discussion. As it stands, all the evidence is out there. If a person chooses to ignore it, that's up to them, but then I don't see why they're trying to argue their point.

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15 minutes ago, Ran said:

You have the exact same access to relevant information that I do.

But again, my point isn't that, it's that someone's reasoning seemed to be in essence, "I don't like it therefore it is wrong." That's not how you can have a constructive discussion. As it stands, all the evidence is out there. If a person chooses to ignore it, that's up to them, but then I don't see why they're trying to argue their point.

If we really are using all the same information then I guess I'm just not sure I am coming to the same conclusions you are... be it this or the three eyed crow... and especially with a subject like this, where I don't see clear evidence of Joffrey having done it, it's all incredibly circumstantial evidence (like the familiarity with V-steel when we already know he watched Ned lose his head to Ice), it makes for an interesting discussion topic.

It's been a long time since we've gotten new material to work with, so is stuff gonna get rehashed a million times, of course, but unless you're telling us this answer to one of the series's original mysteries is coming from George I don't think it's a closed case.

And even if it is/was/will be, it's a fun topic to discuss...

cheers

Edited by LiveFirstDieLater

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10 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

But the the problem is this choice in particular... Valyrian Steel isn't some random factoid to make a connection (like say the sack of coins found in Varys's cell) it's a pivotal element of the plot... as is the attempted murder of Bran.

Exactly. A specific, easily remembered (Jaime) and recognizable (LF, Tyrion) clue allows George move the plot along in where he wants it to go. This item provides George with what he needs to allow the characters to make deductions in the ways he wants them to.

 

15 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

More importantly Joffrey is familiar with Valyrian steel at this point anyway,

At the point of Bran's assassination attempt? 

16 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Joffrey even cuts Tyrion's book gift just like he ordered Ned's head cut off, his previous sharp Valyrian Steel expaerience...

Previous to what? Are you meaning that when Joff says, "I'm no stranger to Valyrian Steel" he is referring to Ned being killed?

19 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I understand that Joff could be the answer, I see how he's presented as a the solution, but frankly I honestly believe George can do better...

Like I said earlier, not George's best work, IMO. But it's the best answer we're given.

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16 minutes ago, Ran said:

But again, my point isn't that, it's that someone's reasoning seemed to be in essence, "I don't like it therefore it is wrong." That's not how you can have a constructive discussion. As it stands, all the evidence is out there. If a person chooses to ignore it, that's up to them, but then I don't see why they're trying to argue their point.

So you made an assumption and you were wrong because that is not was not ever my argument. So now customarily an apology is usually issued.

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6 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

At the point of Bran's assassination attempt? 

When Joff says it, the evidence Tyrion uses to "convict" him in his head.

6 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Previous to what? Are you meaning that when Joff says, "I'm no stranger to Valyrian Steel" he is referring to Ned being killed?

Yes, that's why he does a two handed executioner's swing at the book... he's surprised by Tyrian being nice, not the fact he was offered a dagger... or so the arguement would go... honestly I started this as a devils advocate because I thought ideas were being squashed without proper evidence and I've almost convinced myself...

6 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Like I said earlier, not George's best work, IMO. But it's the best answer we're given.

That's fine, but it's not fair to pretend there is some great logic to it... and if others offer ideas, maybe one of them is on to something

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What assumption? It's plain in what you wrote that you are arguing that your feeling that it isn't Joffrey means that you can ignore contrary evidence.:P 

Also, Martin isn't "non-commital" when he says that ASoS resolves the mystery. That's pretty much as straightforward as you can get without his explicitly saying what the answer is in a book that had (at the time) not yet been published. I know THB pointed this out, but it's worth reiterating it because I've never seen an argument for someone not Joffrey that stands up to the idea that ASoS resolves it.

And in particular, GRRM's assertion that he believed you could guess the answer from the first two novels surely rules out Mance Rayder (which I see has been floated), a character no one has ever met and had no reason to believe was involved in events south of the Wall prior to ASoS and the reveal that he had been at Winterfell when Robert was there.

 

 

Edited by Ran

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1 hour ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

He did try to kill her once...

Yes he gave up it in death bed. But if he regretted assassinating Bran he could say it to Ned or someone else in death bed.

Bran was his bride's nephew.

Daenerys was his enemy's sister.

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3 minutes ago, Davos the Dragonslayer said:

Yes he gave up it in death bed. But if he regretted assassinating Bran he could say it to Ned or someone else in death bed.

Bran was his bride's nephew.

Daenerys was his enemy's sister.

Ya I think Dany was Lyanna's daughter so irony is a bitch! Haha

but I don't think Robert tried to kill Bran, I don't think it makes any sense... 

But I don't think Joffrey makes any sense either though, so...

Edited by LiveFirstDieLater

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1 minute ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

but I don't think Robert tried to kill Bran, I don't think it makes any sense... 

But I don't think Joffrey makes any sense either though, so...

Joffrey makes more sense than Robert.

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13 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

That's fine, but it's not fair to pretend there is some great logic to it... and if others offer ideas, maybe one of them is on to something

I haven't argued that there is some great logic to it. I've only stated that Joff is the answer we're given.

The issue of who sent the assassin is a very minor issue in the plotline. The bigger issues are what results because of the assassination attempt. George needed a way to move things along. This is why Joff as the perpetrator feels forced and unsatisfactory, but that does not make it incorrect. 

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8 minutes ago, Davos the Dragonslayer said:

Joffrey makes more sense than Robert.

This I will give you...

but I like the Mance idea... especially since he mentions the sack of silver (hard evidence) as opposed to Joffrey who basically is guilty because he was in Winterfell, is capable of theft, overheard conversations, and has witnessed the use of Valyrian Steel (saying he's familiar with V-Steel because he stole a knife doesn't make sense in itself, is there any reason to think he used the knife? Why would he have experience with how sharp it is?)... but mostly because he's a shithead... that case is sooo weak. And I still don't understand the motive...

 

Just waiting to find that bit of evidence which rules Mance out, because the more I think about it the more I like it.

Edited by LiveFirstDieLater

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14 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

I haven't argued that there is some great logic to it. I've only stated that Joff is the answer we're given.

The issue of who sent the assassin is a very minor issue in the plotline. The bigger issues are what results because of the assassination attempt. George needed a way to move things along. This is why Joff as the perpetrator feels forced and unsatisfactory, but that does not make it incorrect. 

So I'm never gonna be satisfied with just "that's the way it is", it might be the case, but that doesn't make it make sense...

It seems to me the results of the assasination point even more to Mance... the results played right into his hands, if Stannis hadn't shown up it could have been a beautifully executed plan.

In fact, after returning from Winterfell he decides to invade south, even though the Others were already active before this.

The timing now makes more sense if he had put into action a plan to destabilize the south before he invades...

 

How do the results of the assasination help Joffrey? Or how could he even have imagined they would?

Edited by LiveFirstDieLater

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1 hour ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

The "who sent the catspaw" mystery is not George's best work, IMO. However, Joff is presented to us from the text as well as George's words. It was Joff. 

Yep, as George remarked, "The problem with all this speculating is that some of you are bound to guess the answers before I reveal 'em... and others may even come up with better answers than I do. Well, those are the risks one takes with such a project." 

Edited by Nittanian

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18 minutes ago, Ran said:

What assumption? It's plain in what you wrote that you are arguing that your feeling that it isn't Joffrey means that you can ignore contrary evidence.:P 

Also, Martin isn't "non-commital" when he says that ASoS resolves the mystery. That's pretty much as straightforward as you can get without his explicitly saying what the answer is in a book that had (at the time) not yet been published. I know THB pointed this out, but it's worth reiterating it because I've never seen an argument for someone not Joffrey that stands up to the idea that ASoS resolves it.

And in particular, GRRM's assertion that he believed you could guess the answer from the first two novels surely rules out Mance Rayder (which I see has been floated), a character no one has ever met and had no reason to believe was involved in events south of the Wall prior to ASoS and the reveal that he had been at Winterfell when Robert was there.

 

 

Well at least I know I'm off the ignore list.

No I used the text to show why I didn't think Joffrey did it. I explained why I thought Tyrion especially was being illogical. I think the the fact that Tyrion is being illogical points to Martin showing that this evidence is false. Like I said it's laughable and lucky if Tyrion has stumbled across the right answer through faulty logic.I did say that if the Joffrey thing is right then I think it's bad writing. I don't want it to be bad. But that's not my reason for thinking it's false. My opinion is completely text based as the evidence in the text doesn't add up. 

I reject the e-mails = Joffrey because it's another assumption. I reject them because it's not in the text. I reject them because he could have changed his mind on how he wanted to present it. Am I wrong in thinking that this is the evidence you're referring to? The e-mails. It's not evidence. Is this really what you are basing your whole opinion on?

Also can POV characters be wrong?

 

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8 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

So I'm never gonna be satisfied with just "that's the way it is", it might be the case, but that doesn't make it make sense...

That's why I keep saying it's not George's best work, IMO. It is very unsatisfactory. 

 

9 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

It seems to me the results of the assasination point even more to Mance... the results played right into his hands, if Stannis hadn't shown up it could have been a beautifully executed plan.

I think you mistook my meaning. I'm saying that who the reader thinks sent the catspaw is basically irrelevant. George needed a way to move the plotline forward. That is why Joff as perpetrator feels forced and unsatisfactory. 

As for Mance... What evidence in GoT and CoK points at Mance? Or are we ignoring the SSM where George says we could guess who it was in the first two books?

21 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

How do the results of the assasination help Joffrey? Or how could he even have imagined they would?

There is a lack of clear and obvious motivation for Joffrey to do this. The books tell us he wanted a pat on the head from Daddy. This is unsatisfying, i know.

The results don't help Joffrey. He never gets his pat on the head. This is why I think this isn't George's best work. 

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

What assumption? It's plain in what you wrote that you are arguing that your feeling that it isn't Joffrey means that you can ignore contrary evidence.:P 

There isn't really any evidence against Joffrey... it's all circumstantial and frankly pretty weak even at that... that's the problem.

Quote

Also, Martin isn't "non-commital" when he says that ASoS resolves the mystery. That's pretty much as straightforward as you can get without his explicitly saying what the answer is in a book that had (at the time) not yet been published. I know THB pointed this out, but it's worth reiterating it because I've never seen an argument for someone not Joffrey that stands up to the idea that ASoS resolves it.

Except we find out Mance crossed the wall with a bag of silver and was in Winterfell for the kings visit...

Quote

And in particular, GRRM's assertion that he believed you could guess the answer from the first two novels surely rules out Mance Rayder (which I see has been floated), a character no one has ever met and had no reason to believe was involved in events south of the Wall prior to ASoS and the reveal that he had been at Winterfell when Robert was there.

I don't think it rules him out at all, he's actually mentioned a lot for someone we hadn't met yet...

 
"Oh, I learn things everywhere I go." The little man gestured up at the Wall with a gnarled black walking stick. "As I was saying … why is it that when one man builds a wall, the next man immediately needs to know what's on the other side?" He cocked his head and looked at Jon with his curious mismatched eyes. "You do want to know what's on the other side, don't you?"
"It's nothing special," Jon said. He wanted to ride with Benjen Stark on his rangings, deep into the mysteries of the haunted forest, wanted to fight ManceRayder's wildlings and ward the realm against the Others, but it was better not to speak of the things you wanted. "The rangers say it's just woods and mountains and frozen lakes, with lots of snow and ice." 
"And the grumkins and the snarks," Tyrion said. "Let us not forget them, Lord Snow, or else what's that big thing for?"
 
Tyrion does an odd reversal here where he talks about men wanting to cross a wall, but flip flops on the direction... and throws Mance's name out there... just saying.
 
 
Ser Jaremy stood. "The Wildlings have axes too."
Mormont rounded on him. "So you believe this is Mance Rayder's work? This close to the Wall?" 
"Who else, my Lordy?"
 
 
Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower.
 
What do you fight WW with? V-Steel
 
Anyway, the point is it isn't like Mance was never mentioned in the first two books, he's one of the bigger off screen personas. 
Not only that, but is it a coincident he went digging in the Frostfangs after returning? Did he find something in the Library of Winterfell?
 
I'm really liking this idea better and better, sorry I wasn't able to float the idea before I read Storm of Swords, but frankly I still think it provides better evidence for Mance then the circumstantial stuff surrounding Joffrey.
Edited by LiveFirstDieLater

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