Chrissie

A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

171 posts in this topic

15 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I'm noticing a common theme in this debate. I present my argument based on the text. Then I get accused of not arguing from the text while my actual post regarding the text is not debated at all. Instead the immediate comeback is to run back to the e-mails. This is the third time it's happened.and it's very frustrating. Either it's tacit agreement and there is no counter argument and they agree that Tyrion's reasoning is rubbish and that Jaime and Cersei's conversation is suspect at best. Or they think it's too ridiculous. Meaning I haven't explained myself well enough. So please if you don't understand any part of my argument or disagree with it challenge me on it so I can have the opportunity to explain myself better.

I feel for you brother. Happens to me all the time. I provide copious text to back up a point, get accused of making it up because I haven't provided "proof" (as if there would be any reason to debate at all if the text provided clear, unambiguous proof) and then they expect me to disprove and endless stream of what-ifs and maybe-this-or-thats, none of which has any text or even a logical basis to support it.

For what it's worth, though, I don't think the fact that Joffrey reacts to the notion of Valyrian steel is as significant as his take on dragonbone, which he says is "too plain." As far as I know, this is the only example of dragonbone used in an artistic fashion, so why would Joffrey consider such a rare thing to be too plain unless he knew what it looked like as a dagger hilt?

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2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

My point was that since we already have an example of an experience of Joff and how sharp Valyrian Steel is (Ned's execution) he didn't give anything away...

As for why give an assassin the dagger? The assassin was clearly already well paid... 

I can't think of any reason for Joff to give the man a unique dagger. Really, why? Even if Joff had special instructions for how he wanted Bran carved up there is no logical reason to give the man a special knife.

 

The only response I can give to this is that Ned's execution happens after the catspaw. So when Joff says he has experience with VS, that would come after he gave up the knife, which could mean that at the time of the attempt Joff did not know how valuable it was. Indeed, the "plain" handle might have led him to believe the knife was not special at all.

 

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3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Uh, you'll have to catch me up on your theory as to how Penny and Groat came to have real dragons eggs, why they would just give them to Littlefinger and why they would continue to perform for, well, pennies and groats, rather than retire to their splendid manse that came from the sale of virtually priceless eggs.

I can't tell if you're just patronizing me, or if you really want to hear the theory. In a nutshell, this is it:

Penny and Groat were given dragon eggs by the Sealord of Braavos, who loved their act. (ADwD, Tyrion VIII: "We performed for the Sealord of Braavos once, and he laughed so hard that afterward he gave each of us a . . . a grand gift.") Groat either sold those eggs to Littlefinger's agents or he was killed by Littlefingers agents (Kettleblacks?) under the cover of Cersei's bounty on dwarf heads. The eggs were taken to be hatched and raised at the isolated but sheep-inhabited Baelish ancestral lands.

Penny says that Groat handled all of the arrangements for their act, so she may have never seen the money paid for the eggs or, as I say, Groat may have been murdered and the eggs taken from him.

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10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I feel for you brother. Happens to me all the time. I provide copious text to back up a point, get accused of making it up because I haven't provided "proof" (as if there would be any reason to debate at all if the text provided clear, unambiguous proof) and then they expect me to disprove and endless stream of what-ifs and maybe-this-or-thats, none of which has any text or even a logical basis to support it.

For what it's worth, though, I don't think the fact that Joffrey reacts to the notion of Valyrian steel is as significant as his take on dragonbone, which he says is "too plain." As far as I know, this is the only example of dragonbone used in an artistic fashion, so why would Joffrey consider such a rare thing to be too plain unless he knew what it looked like as a dagger hilt?

Thanks, some of the longer posts do take a long time to make like 1/2 an hour or even an hour or more. Sometimes I use a search of ice and fire but other times I'm going to the books and rereading chapters. That's nothing compared to what some people do though. I see some people able to put so effort into their theories that they come out with essays for. I'd never have the patience for that. I think that's one of the most frustrating parts. But I'm grateful for the opportunity to expand and talk through these ideas more

Regarding the dragonbone I thought that would be the central piece of evidence for Littlefinger + Joffrey. As the exact same description is used by LF when discussing the dagger with Tyrion ACoK Tyrion 4 

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"That's a handsome knife as well."

"Is it?" There was mischief in Littlefinger's eyes. He drew the knife and glanced at it casually, as if he had never seen it before. "Valyrian steel, and a dragonbone hilt. A trifle plain, though. It's yours, if you would like it."

"Mine?" Tyrion gave him a long look. "No. I think not. Never mine." He knows, the insolent wretch. He knows and he knows that I know, and he thinks that I cannot touch him.

It is weird that only these two characters see the dagger as plain.Tyrion describes dragonbone as being like black diamond and Daenerys describes her dragonbone bow as "shiny, black, exquisite". But it could just be a matter of opinion. The similarity in their description could be seen as showing exactly that. That more than one person believes that dragonbone is plain and it's not unusual for Joffrey to hold that opinion.

My problem with LF+Joff would be that LF has zero need of Joffrey's involvement. He has an agent at Winterfell, who delivered the Myrish lens with the letter and who informed him of Cat's trip to King's Landing. The problem is that he needs to find out about Bran's fall then communicate with the agent in Winterfell. So a raven round trip made in three weeks. Quite possible imo. The biggest problem with Lf is that he simply doesn't need to. He's already got a plan to sew mistrust between the Starks and Lannisters. This would be the proverbial cherry on the top. But it just seems such an unnecessary risk. Something a bit out of character for LF. Mance on the other hand has no plan to beat the seven kingdoms or even the North, he's stopped by the wall and a couple thousand cavalry. That's why I would rank Mance higher than LF in the list of suspects. His motive far exceeds everyone else's.

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16 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Yeah definitely not a disagreement or an agreement. He is uninterested in Bran at all the wolf howling is what he is complaining about. Given the quote I don't think "send a dog to kill a dog" is far from "send a dog to kill a wolf" given Joff is talking about a wolf. He says dog the first time but then says WF is infested with wolves so they won't miss one. I'll agree it's still odd for Tyrion to misquote Joff later though. 

I think it's a big leap to get from killing Summer to killing Bran. Especially as it was a cat sent to kill Bran not a wolf or a dog. I'm not really into putting great emphasis on finding hidden meanings and symbolism in certain words but I think these words are very specific. I think it's a reasonable mistake for Tyrion to make the conversation happened a long time ago. But to base his case on this is completely wrong as it never happened. As a reader I think it's unreasonable for us to make a connection from dog>wolf>cat. It's a completely changed meaning completely changed and contradicting symbolism.

 

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But what would be her motive to lie about Tyrion asking her about the dagger? It seems an odd thing to lie about when she could have just as easily left it out. Either way it doesn't mean she wasn't lying about what Robert said. That, she has a very clear motive for. 

Well one clear motive was if she were guilty of the crime herself or at the very least she doesn't want to be accused of it. It doesn't necessarily mean that she is lying about everything. Although I do see it as the literary device of a character starting a conversation with a lie as meaning we can't trust any of what they're saying. Like they're in lying mode. I think one way to read that part is that she lies, then goes to close the window perhaps turning her back to hide her face while she's thinking turns back and starts leading Jaime first to Robert which he quickly rejects then to the children until he lands on Joffrey who's dead so what does it matter. Then she changes the subject.

edit: I reread this and didn't think I'd answered the question properly. I think in the end it's all just weird and that we're not going to find an answer as to whether this was intentional or not until someone straight up asks him whether this conversation ever happened. It is a strange thing to lie about but it's not like Tyrion is likely to be able to ever refute it so it's a safe lie from her perspective.

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This I love! It would be fantastic. 

I think I first heard this theory on here a few years ago so I can't take credit for it but when I read it it made sense and yeah it would be cool.

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"You weren't s'posed to be here," he muttered sourly. "No one was s'posed to be here."

I think it really centres on this and that he then repeats it emphasising it's importance. Especially if it was Bran warging some guy. Because to Bran Cat is not supposed to be there. As when he wakes up she's gone.

The Catspaw is a whole other part of this I haven't discussed. He is one dedicated catspaw. Hides in the stables for a week. He's already been paid so no huge reason to go through with it. His plan goes wrong why not just run when he sees Cat. Instead he fights her like killing Bran is not just a mercy, not just a job, it's like he has to go through with it for some unknown reason. For me this also points away from Joff. It's not like Joff has any real power to go hunt this guy. His power comes from his father so he can't exactly go and complain about the catspaw to him. 

Just one more thing back to some symbolism. Silver is what Mance has in winterfell. I also associate it with Littlefinger, his silver broach. Baratheons and Lannisters are always associated with gold. Like I said I don't put too much stock in symbolism arguments but it's another strange thing that feels out of place.

Edited by Banner Without Brothers

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@Frey family reunion

That was an amazing post and I agree with you completely. I especially enjoyed the parallels to greek mythology. I'd made a similar argument earlier for Mance's motives but far less eloquently. 

@Ckram

Thanks for that I'd actually forgotten about that conversation in Tyrion 1. It is very interesting that Cersei later blames Robert for the very thing she said.

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3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I think it's a big leap to get from killing Summer to killing Bran. Especially as it was a cat sent to kill Bran not a wolf or a dog. I'm not really into putting great emphasis on finding hidden meanings and symbolism in certain words but I think these words are very specific. I think it's a reasonable mistake for Tyrion to make the conversation happened a long time ago. But to base his case on this is completely wrong as it never happened. As a reader I think it's unreasonable for us to make a connection from dog>wolf>cat. It's a completely changed meaning completely changed and contradicting symbolism.

 

I agree it's a big leap from dog-wolf-cat & don't think it's a very good thing for Tyrion to base his case on. I only meant it was reasonable for Tyrion to misquote "wolf" instead of dog given the context. As you said there wasn't a dog sent to kill a dog or a dog sent to kill a wolf. There was a cat sent to kill a wolf. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Well one clear motive was if she were guilty of the crime herself or at the very least she doesn't want to be accused of it. It doesn't necessarily mean that she is lying about everything. Although I do see it as the literary device of a character starting a conversation with a lie as meaning we can't trust any of what they're saying. Like they're in lying mode. I think one way to read that part is that she lies, then goes to close the window perhaps turning her back to hide her face while she's thinking turns back and starts leading Jaime first to Robert which he quickly rejects then to the children until he lands on Joffrey who's dead so what does it matter. Then she changes the subject.

edit: I reread this and didn't think I'd answered the question properly. I think in the end it's all just weird and that we're not going to find an answer as to whether this was intentional or not until someone straight up asks him whether this conversation ever happened. It is a strange thing to lie about but it's not like Tyrion is likely to be able to ever refute it so it's a safe lie from her perspective.

I agree it can been seen as a literary device to indicate the rest of what she says is lies. But yeah it is an odd thing to lie about nonetheless. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I think it really centres on this and that he then repeats it emphasising it's importance. Especially if it was Bran warging some guy. Because to Bran Cat is not supposed to be there. As when he wakes up she's gone.

Playing the Devils advocate here would Bran kill Cat though? I suppose we don't know in what state he will return from the cave & if he knows she is soon to die anyway maybe he would. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

The Catspaw is a whole other part of this I haven't discussed. He is one dedicated catspaw. Hides in the stables for a week. He's already been paid so no huge reason to go through with it. His plan goes wrong why not just run when he sees Cat. Instead he fights her like killing Bran is not just a mercy, not just a job, it's like he has to go through with it for some unknown reason. For me this also points away from Joff. It's not like Joff has any real power to go hunt this guy. His power comes from his father so he can't exactly go and complain about the catspaw to him. 

This has always been odd to me. The only possible explanation I have is that he is simple minded. He does as he is told & this is what he was told. Similar to Small Paul participating in the mutiny. It's not a great explanation I know but the only one I have. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Just one more thing back to some symbolism. Silver is what Mance has in winterfell. I also associate it with Littlefinger, his silver broach. Baratheons and Lannisters are always associated with gold. Like I said I don't put too much stock in symbolism arguments but it's another strange thing that feels out of place.

I do think it's interesting that Mance says he was in WF with silver & then the catspaw has a bag of silver. My biggest issue with Mance being the one to hire the catspaw is Mance seems smart enough to plan something better, something that would actually work. Maybe he never intended it to work? I mean if we go with 'Mance hired the catspaw' he reached his desired ends even though the murder attempt failed so it could be it didn't matter one way or the other if the catspaw actually succeeded as long as the attempt was made. 

Thinking about it I would actually go a step further & say Mance wouldn't have wanted it to succeed would he? If it works the catspaw isn't caught & the dagger isn't found. Unless of course the catspaw was given instructions to leave the VS dagger at the scene of the crime. 

I don't put much stock in symbolism either & I know the dragon bone seems to connect LF & Joff but I just don't see LF having anything to do with it. There are just so many what ifs & unknowns for LF to be orchestrating it while in KL. 

I do think the dragon bone indicates it may have been Joffrey though. It's a small thing but it explains why Joff picked that particular dagger if he feels dragon bone is 'plain' 

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I feel that when this issue is discussed we forget some of the reasons why this dagger has to be so special.

George had to choose a unique dagger so it would be easily remembered and recognizable to the characters. The dagger is the only clue left behind for the characters to try to connect the dots. An ordinary dagger would not have been remembered by mere description when Cat confronts Jaime. LF would have had to be more creative in pointing Cat towards Tyrion if it were an ordinary dagger. Tyrion's description of the dagger to Joff would have no result when Tyrion comes to his conclusion in SoS. A unique dagger works much better to move the plot forward.

In story perspective: is also important to remember that the perpetrator most likely did not expect his catspaw to be caught. He probably thought this would be the last time anyone ever saw this dagger. He probably never worried about anything being traced back to him or anyone else. After all, he told the assassin that 'no one was s'posed to be there'. 

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6 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Playing the Devils advocate here would Bran kill Cat though? I suppose we don't know in what state he will return from the cave & if he knows she is soon to die anyway maybe he would. 

OK get your tinfoil hat ready and strap yourself in. It goes something like this; Bran has been absorbed by the CotF and the weirwoods. This operates as a sort of hive minded consciousness as with Martin's other work. The CotF are using Bran's body and his abilities to get rid of mankind or do some bad stuff. Bran's consciousness is still just about functioning but he's not in control of his body. So he goes back to the beginning to stop all of this from happening. He figures if he trades one life, his own, for all the deaths in the future it's worth it, as he'll be fully absorbed soon anyway. Note the "he's dead already" part. When he gets there he finds his mother but determined to stop this future he goes ahead with his plan and well you know the rest. It's just a bit of fun and would be a cool ending. Eerily similar to the plot of the Terminator films I'm just realizing :D

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I do think it's interesting that Mance says he was in WF with silver & then the catspaw has a bag of silver. My biggest issue with Mance being the one to hire the catspaw is Mance seems smart enough to plan something better, something that would actually work. Maybe he never intended it to work? I mean if we go with 'Mance hired the catspaw' he reached his desired ends even though the murder attempt failed so it could be it didn't matter one way or the other if the catspaw actually succeeded as long as the attempt was made. 

Thinking about it I would actually go a step further & say Mance wouldn't have wanted it to succeed would he? If it works the catspaw isn't caught & the dagger isn't found. Unless of course the catspaw was given instructions to leave the VS dagger at the scene of the crime. 

My own opinion on this is that Mance went there with the intention of causing trouble and opportunistically took advantage of the Bran situation. Mance's explanation of why he goes to Winterfell is pretty lame. He says he goes there just to get a look at the southron king. Like he's got nothing better to do, like I don't know look for the horn of Joramun or organize and train his army or plan the invasion. Anything, but instead he decides to poetically go and look Robert in the face to get the measure of him. This is a journey that involves scaling the wall walking hundreds of miles across the gift and the new gift where he buys a horse on Umber land and rides down the king's road at great speed to catch up with the royal party. At any point he could be captured or killed all for a look at Robert. It's a nice story and makes him look all kinds of brave but objectively it's probably one of the dumbest things a leader could do. This is also a story he's telling Jon it's not like he can say I went there to try to start a war between your family and the crown.

Regarding the dagger I think it would be weird for the catspaw to take the dagger away no matter who he's working for. You don't want to be carrying around a blood soaked murder weapon while you're making your escape. You especially don't want to be a smelly lowborn carrying a VS dagger. That's all the proof any guard who stopped him would need. If the catspaw had any hope of escaping alive he would want to leave the dagger. The same way any mob hit in a film you've seen goes, they always drop the gun when the deed is done. Especially if there's no dna testing, no forensics. It's the only proof you did anything other than being a smelly peasant who no one knows.

I think the plan from Mance's PoV is pretty solid. Burn the library, you expect everyone to be trying to put out the fire and go kill the boy. It's only a bad plan if you don't know Cat very well.

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This has always been odd to me. The only possible explanation I have is that he is simple minded. He does as he is told & this is what he was told. Similar to Small Paul participating in the mutiny. It's not a great explanation I know but the only one I have. 

Yeah it could be. But he's pretty stealthy to avoid detection for a week. Then to move from one part of the castle to another. We don't know if it was his plan to burn the library or his employer. It doesn't strike me as a simple minded thing he's doing it takes some skill. Although he is described as "stupidly repeating it's a mercy" so the suggestion he's stupid is there. It makes more sense if he''s doing it for a reason other than just payment, like being a wildling. It's similar in a way to how the spearwives behave when rescuing fArya and Theon. Littlefinger also commands a lot of loyalty. 

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I don't put much stock in symbolism either & I know the dragon bone seems to connect LF & Joff but I just don't see LF having anything to do with it. There are just so many what ifs & unknowns for LF to be orchestrating it while in KL. 

I do think the dragon bone indicates it may have been Joffrey though. It's a small thing but it explains why Joff picked that particular dagger if he feels dragon bone is 'plain' 

 

I agree with you on LF. I just don't see the need for it. There's also a real lack of evidence for him. It's totally possible that he could do it. Like it's possible that Dario could be Euron. Technically a great many things are possible but there's not a lot of hard evidence like the silver and Mance.

Do you think it can be seen both ways? As in it's a shared opinion meaning it's not unusual for the dagger to be seen as plain. Some people think it's striking some people think it's plain. 

So with all the holes in the Joffrey theory where are you now on  believing he did it? Has the needle moved at all?

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20 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

get your tinfoil hat ready and strap yourself in. It goes something like this; Bran has been absorbed by the CotF and the weirwoods. This operates as a sort of hive minded consciousness as with Martin's other work. The CotF are using Bran's body and his abilities to get rid of mankind or do some bad stuff. Bran's consciousness is still just about functioning but he's not in control of his body. So he goes back to the beginning to stop all of this from happening. He figures if he trades one life, his own, for all the deaths in the future it's worth it, as he'll be fully absorbed soon anyway. Note the "he's dead already" part. When he gets there he finds his mother but determined to stop this future he goes ahead with his plan and well you know the rest. It's just a bit of fun and would be a cool ending. Eerily similar to the plot of the Terminator films I'm just realizing :D

I love this stuff & really do hope George takes part of the story somewhat in this direction. 

 

20 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

My own opinion on this is that Mance went there with the intention of causing trouble and opportunistically took advantage of the Bran situation. Mance's explanation of why he goes to Winterfell is pretty lame. He says he goes there just to get a look at the southron king. Like he's got nothing better to do, like I don't know look for the horn of Joramun or organize and train his army or plan the invasion. Anything, but instead he decides to poetically go and look Robert in the face to get the measure of him. This is a journey that involves scaling the wall walking hundreds of miles across the gift and the new gift where he buys a horse on Umber land and rides down the king's road at great speed to catch up with the royal party. At any point he could be captured or killed all for a look at Robert. It's a nice story and makes him look all kinds of brave but objectively it's probably one of the dumbest things a leader could do. This is also a story he's telling Jon it's not like he can say I went there to try to start a war between your family and the crown.

I agree it's an odd explanation for why he went to WF & as he is talking to Jon, a Stark bastard & is not 100% sure about where Jon's loyalties lie regarding the NW & wildlings he wouldn't tell him the truth. It doesn't make much sense for him to go there just to look at Robert either. 

 

20 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Yeah it could be. But he's pretty stealthy to avoid detection for a week. Then to move from one part of the castle to another. We don't know if it was his plan to burn the library or his employer. It doesn't strike me as a simple minded thing he's doing it takes some skill. Although he is described as "stupidly repeating it's a mercy" so the suggestion he's stupid is there. It makes more sense if he''s doing it for a reason other than just payment, like being a wildling. It's similar in a way to how the spearwives behave when rescuing fArya and Theon. Littlefinger also commands a lot of loyalty

I can see this. My reasoning behind him being simple minded was that whoever sent the catspaw convinced this man he is doing this child a mercy & convinced him to take all the risk in killing him which to my mostly normal mind woukd take alot of convincing. My thought process was the catspaw must'be been fairly simple minded to be talked into it. But really he wouldn't have to be I suppose. The wildlings believe such things to be a mercy & we have several other characters throughout the story that talk of giving the he mercy of death. 

 

25 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

you think it can be seen both ways? As in it's a shared opinion meaning it's not unusual for the dagger to be seen as plain. Some people think it's striking some people think it's plain. 

Yeah it can definitely be seen both ways. It could speak to nothing more than Joffrey's ignorance & arrogance which was already being shown in that scene by Joff cutting up the book Tyrion gave him. 

 

26 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

So with all the holes in the Joffrey theory where are you now on  believing he did it? Has the needle moved at all?

You know I have to admit it has. I wasn't 100% on board with the Joffrey theory but I'm even less so now. I came into this thread thinking 'Mance?! Of course he didn't send the catspaw!' TBH I completely forgot about Mance even being at WF.  But it seems as if he not only has a motive & means but the best motive & means along with some textual evidence. I won't be surprised at all if it's Mance. 

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On 11/17/2017 at 5:43 PM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Sure, that could definitely be the case. But it would be a really stupid plan, even for Joffrey. And we have to accept that he was stupid enough to send the assassin with the dagger but smart enough to tell him to wait until a week after they left to cover his tracks. It is possible, but it seems odd. More importantly, if Joff really did send the assassin, it was a super huge coincidence that he happened to pick LF's dagger and another coincidence that the assassin failed so the dagger could be found at all and another coincidence that Lysa's letter about Jon Arryn caused Cat to blame the Lannisters and head to KL and have the conversation with LF, ultimately leading to Cat kidnapping Tyrion and the Wot5K. It is a whole series of coincidences that played directly into BR's plan to bring Bran north, and so I think it is more likely that BR himself was involved in setting up the whole thing in the first place.

I agree that someone is implicated in 'setting up the whole thing in the first place,' but it isn't Bloodraven; it's the author himself whose presence you're sensing in the text...

As to the heavyhanded 'whole series of [unlikely, contradictory] coincidences' we 'have to accept' in which we can discern the trace of the author as he goes about constructing his fiction-- it's called 'less-than-good' writing!

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