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IheartIheartTesla

US politics: Alabama Jones and the Temple of Moore

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One is about an evil religious figure in cahoots with local governance that holds sway over a large fraction of the populace and the other is a movie starring Harrison Ford.

Anyway, for Jones to win he has to suppress opposition turnout and get ~ 90% of the black vote and I think....40% of the white vote? More than what Obama or Clinton got, at any rate.

Edit: Its actually 35% of the white vote, and 70% of the non-white, non-black vote (assuming 2 party voting, of course).

Edited by IheartIheartTesla

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It's just incredible to me that Republicans aren't rallying to the idea of "write in Luther Strange".  I mean, there's a good chance it would work and they wouldn't have to stomach Roy Moore.  Just looking at the numbers, a Democrat more or less tops out in the high 30s in Alabama, and that is assuming good turnout for them.  Even if there's a segment of 15-20% of Alabama Republicans who don't believe the allegations and will vote Roy Moore no matter what, that STILL leaves enough room for Luther Strange to win.  Yes, it would be close, but it would allow the state to preserve a little dignity. 

And yet such a move isn't even getting off the ground.  Apparently the risk of losing a Senate seat is too great, no one dares even attempt to elect a better candidate. 

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Interestingly enough, Obama did slightly better than Clinton in 2008/2012 compared to 2016 (about 38% to 34%). But yeah, getting above that means some Republicans have to stay home (in this case, many of those who voted for Strange) or vote for others.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

It's just incredible to me that Republicans aren't rallying to the idea of "write in Luther Strange".  I mean, there's a good chance it would work and they wouldn't have to stomach Roy Moore.  Just looking at the numbers, a Democrat more or less tops out in the high 30s in Alabama, and that is assuming good turnout for them.  Even if there's a segment of 15-20% of Alabama Republicans who don't believe the allegations and will vote Roy Moore no matter what, that STILL leaves enough room for Luther Strange to win.  Yes, it would be close, but it would allow the state to preserve a little dignity. 

And yet such a move isn't even getting off the ground.  Apparently the risk of losing a Senate seat is too great, no one dares even attempt to elect a better candidate. 

Strange as it may seem, I'm pretty sure that Moore will win this.

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The other wrinkle in all of this that I don't understand is that there's apparently some kind of expulsion option that's available if Moore should win the Senate seat.  Whatever that is, I'm skeptical that Trump's Republican party would go through with it, but I've never really heard of this before.  

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4 minutes ago, Triskele said:

The other wrinkle in all of this that I don't understand is that there's apparently some kind of expulsion option that's available if Moore should win the Senate seat.  Whatever that is, I'm skeptical that Trump's Republican party would go through with it, but I've never really heard of this before.  

It's a section of the Constitution that allows removal from office with a 2/3 vote of fellow Senators (or Reprensentatives).

Whether two-fifths of current Republican Senators would join with Democrats to vote in favor of removal is doubtful, unless they determine that this is playing badly with their own constituents.

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3 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Strange as it may seem, I'm pretty sure that Moore will win this.

I fully expect he will. 

I was trying to come up with a similar situation occurring for the Democrats.  Like if say, Chris Van Hollen ran for (and won) governor of Maryland, and his replacement was accused of this wrongdoing.  In this crazy political climate, I would never under any circumstances vote for a Republican in the Senate.  But I also have no doubt that in this hypothetical, I would support a write-in campaign for another Democrat (or an independent) to avoid electing a pedophile to Senate, even acknowledging that such a campaign might (but also might not) make a Republican from Maryland more likely. 

The problem with this hypothetical is that Washington Post has a great deal more credibility to me than it does most Alabama voters, and I am also more predisposed to believe women's stories about male misconduct.  But if I'm trying to put the shoe on the other foot, I don't think that the story coming from Foxnews would make much difference, since other media would surely do followups to determine if such a story was accurate (as is happening right now).  I'm also trying to come up with a crime that Republicans are more likely to believe a politician would do, but Democrats are less likely.  Honestly, I'm not really coming up with anything other than voter fraud, and that's not nearly as scandalous as what Moore did. 

So in conclusion, I'm having a really hard time coming up with a "if this were happening to my side" story that feels anything like what Alabama Republicans are dealing with.  To me, a staunch "we do not elect pedophiles or democrats" policy that I (wrongly?) assumed would be widespread in Alabama ought to mean a write-in campaign.  And if a write in campaign were pursued aggressively and with full support of national and local Republicans, I'm pretty sure it would succeed. 

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On 11/13/2017 at 11:31 AM, SeanF said:

Strange as it may seem, I'm pretty sure that Moore will win this.

Given how nutball American Conservatism and the Republican Party is, it's really not that strange.

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I think Moore will win as well.  They're gonna attack the media and the accusers enough to muddy the waters, there's no actual charges that can be brought and debated in court, and Moore is even looking at suing the Washington Post.  And muddying the waters is all they need to do.  People who are already overwhelmingly inclined to vote for the Republican no matter what only need you to plant the tiniest seed of doubt about the accusations to get over it and do what they were going to do anyway and a full scale effort to plant those seeds of doubt is already well underway.  I'd be shocked if Moore doesn't win.  

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"Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Monday that Republican candidate Roy Moore should end his campaign for U.S. Senate in Alabama, following allegations that Moore initiated a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl when he was 32.

“I think he should step aside,” said McConnell. His comments marked the most definitive position he has taken on Moore’s candidacy since The Washington Post reported the allegations last Thursday.

Asked by a reporter if he believed the allegations, McConnell responded: “I believe the women, yes.”  "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mcconnell-calls-on-roy-moore-to-end-senate-campaign-following-accusations-of-sexual-misconduct/2017/11/13/1ca48d56-c890-11e7-aa96-54417592cf72_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_mooregop-1200pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b00aa9914731

 

There must be more allegations coming out.

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If Moore found himself flailing in the polls, all he'd need to do is admit to some sort of wrongdoing but then mumble a bunch of stuff about his sky fairy and forgiveness and all would be well with his base.  That's how those sorts of people work.  He could say that he ripped out a fetus from a womb, fucked it, then ate it's heart but that he is born again and his people would be like "cool, maybe we can make your president one day."

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18 minutes ago, S John said:

I think Moore will win as well.  They're gonna attack the media and the accusers enough to muddy the waters, there's no actual charges that can be brought and debated in court, and Moore is even looking at suing the Washington Post.  And muddying the waters is all they need to do.  People who are already overwhelmingly inclined to vote for the Republican no matter what only need you to plant the tiniest seed of doubt about the accusations to get over it and do what they were going to do anyway and a full scale effort to plant those seeds of doubt is already well underway.  I'd be shocked if Moore doesn't win.  

Nobody really has to plant a seed of doubt against Moore'svictims or the Post, there's quite a large swath of the conservative/Republican electorate that has been trained to automatically interpret a bad story about a conservative politician or public figure as a lie and smear by the lamestream fake news media.

The thing that gives me some hope, however, is the fact that the special election isn't until December 12th. If it was held today I think Moore, despite being polarizing even in Alabama, would win on sheer momentum and the "virtue" of having an R next to his name on the ballot form. However, Moore has to keep it together for a month. He has to go a month without shattering the faith he automatically gets from the voters. A month without shooting himself in the foot, without making every parent and grandparent wonder if they'd trust him around their kids or grandkids. A month without failing interviews and obviously contradicting his own story. (Which he'll already started doing.) A month where every woman who has been harassed or abused thinks about his actions. A month where every Romney Republican has second thoughts. A month for pressure to potentially build from his party, his family, and whatever against him. A month for new developments to ocvur and other victims to step forward. 

Despite all that he should still regarded as the favorite, for right now. However, a month from now isn't right now, and who knows what will happen in that time? And if Moore does step down, however unlikely it is, (this is definitely a guy who thinks he's on a mission from god) then Republicans are almost sure to lose, since at this juncture Moore's name can't be taken off the ballot, (unless they possibly postpone the election) some people will vote for him even if he's removed, and that sort of split gives Jones a chance. If Moore does step down and still gets the most votes, the election would go to Jones anyway.

Now, it wouldn't surprise me if half the Republican politicians denouncing Moore publicly are privately encouraging him to stay in at least until the votes ate counted because they figure he's the best chance they've got, but this whole situation has gotten awfully interesting.

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I'm reading some contradictory things about the Alabama race.  If the Alabama Republican party decides to withdraw Roy Moore as their candidate, does that mean he is withdrawn?  As in, even if he he refuses to step down, and got the most votes, he still wouldn't get the Senate seat? 

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8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm reading some contradictory things about the Alabama race.  If the Alabama Republican party decides to withdraw Roy Moore as their candidate, does that mean he is withdrawn?  As in, even if he he refuses to step down, and got the most votes, he still wouldn't get the Senate seat? 

There’s a lot of contradictory information out there and I’m not sure what’s actually correct. The two narratives that I’m hearing most is that either his votes will be voided and whoever comes in second will win or the entire election will be voided if he wins and the AL secretary of state will establish a new special election. I’m not entirely sure which is correct. Either way though, given what we’re hearing from the Senate I think there’s a good chance that he won’t be a Senator for very long if he wins.

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13 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm reading some contradictory things about the Alabama race.  If the Alabama Republican party decides to withdraw Roy Moore as their candidate, does that mean he is withdrawn?  As in, even if he he refuses to step down, and got the most votes, he still wouldn't get the Senate seat? 

This is correct. He cannot at this point be removed from the ballot, but if he withdraws all votes for him will essentially be thrown out, and whoever gets the most non-Moore votes will win. 

OH HEY ANOTHER REASON TO SUPPORT MMR VOTING

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3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It's just incredible to me that Republicans aren't rallying to the idea of "write in Luther Strange".  I mean, there's a good chance it would work and they wouldn't have to stomach Roy Moore.  Just looking at the numbers, a Democrat more or less tops out in the high 30s in Alabama, and that is assuming good turnout for them.  Even if there's a segment of 15-20% of Alabama Republicans who don't believe the allegations and will vote Roy Moore no matter what, that STILL leaves enough room for Luther Strange to win.  Yes, it would be close, but it would allow the state to preserve a little dignity. 

And yet such a move isn't even getting off the ground.  Apparently the risk of losing a Senate seat is too great, no one dares even attempt to elect a better candidate. 

Luther Strange is deeply unpopular in Alabama due to the circumstances of how he was appointed to the seat in the first place (He was the state AG and investigating the now-disgraced and resigned former governor until said governor appointed him). I think a different write-in candidate would have more success, but no one capable of rallying Alabama Republicans together is stepping forward; likely due to fear of enraging the hardcore Moore supporters, which are probably around half of Republicans in the state).

 

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

It's a section of the Constitution that allows removal from office with a 2/3 vote of fellow Senators (or Reprensentatives).

Whether two-fifths of current Republican Senators would join with Democrats to vote in favor of removal is doubtful, unless they determine that this is playing badly with their own constituents.

It could be even more than that. Schumer could have his caucus abstain, which would force 2/3rds of Republicans on the record voting to expel Moore. Make them fully own it.

 

As for how the race goes, it's still a month a lot, a lot can happen. But I think Jones is the slight favorite right now. Yes it's Alabama, and yes Moore has a lot of hardcore supporters, but a lot of Republicans in the state don't like him either (see his 52% win last time he ran for state office). Almost none of them would ever vote for a Democrat, but how many are going to be willing to go out and vote for a pedophile two weeks before Christmas? Meanwhile, I think a lot of Democrats in the state are energized by the chance to win a state-wide race for the first time in decades.

The balancing act is, Jones needs to find a way to boost black turnout in the state without pissing off the white voters who would grudgingly vote for him or at least stay home. He needs to find a way to bring in Obama without white Alabamians finding out.

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Gloria Allred has announced a press conference for today at 2:30 pm EST in which she claims that another victim of Moore's will describe that she was sexually assaulted by him as a minor.

Sorry, don't know how to embed tweets.

I wonder if this is why McConnell came out today and announced that Moore should withdraw his candidacy.

Edited by The Great Unwashed

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41 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm reading some contradictory things about the Alabama race.  If the Alabama Republican party decides to withdraw Roy Moore as their candidate, does that mean he is withdrawn?  As in, even if he he threerefuses to step down, and got the most votes, he still wouldn't get the Senate seat? 

I think there is confusion on this even among Alabama election officials. The Sec. of State said that if Moore withdraws or is withdrawn, but still gets the most votes, the election will be declared void and the governor would call a new special election. But another election official stated that whoever gets the 2nd most number of votes would be declared the winner.

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33 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm reading some contradictory things about the Alabama race.  If the Alabama Republican party decides to withdraw Roy Moore as their candidate, does that mean he is withdrawn?  As in, even if he he refuses to step down, and got the most votes, he still wouldn't get the Senate seat? 

What I've heard is that if Moore cannot be dropped unilaterally by the party, and within 76 days of an elections, a candidate's name cannot be scrubbed from the ballot. If Moore decided to drop out and was the winner, the election would go to the second place candidate.

Also, regarding Strange, apparently it appears he might not be a valid candidate. A note on Alabama law apparently says that a candidate only gets one chance to run for office per year. And said memo was written by... Luther Strange. 

Quote

"Any amendment filed after the 76th day before a primary or a general election shall be accepted by the judge of probate or the Secretary of State but shall not be cause for reprinting of the ballots," according to the statute. "The name of a candidate who is the subject of the amendment and who is disqualified by a political party or who has withdrawn as a candidate shall remain on the ballot, not be replaced by the name of another candidate, and the appropriate canvassing board shall not certify any votes for the candidate."

While the law may appear confusing as to what can be done, John Bennett, a spokesman for the Alabama secretary of state's office told the Washington Post Thursday that he believed "it was too late" to replace Moore on the ballot.

And while some may suggest that Strange should run as a third party or mount a write-in campaign. There's reason to believe that may be unlawful as well.

In fact, a 2014 memorandum written by Luther Strange, who was the Alabama Attorney General at the time, states that a political candidate may only get "one opportunity to run for an elected position in any given year."

In addition, "it prevents a candidate from having his or her name placed on a general election ballot as an independent in the same year he or she lost in the party primary," said the memo.

See also:

Quote

Bennett says the party and candidate can revoke the Republican’s nomination, but his name would appear regardless, because a key deadline has already passed. Bennett says In such a scenario, even if Moore earned more votes than the Democrat, the state canvassing board would declare the Democrat the winner.

Man, if this tanged weave winds up costing Republicans in this election, the irony will be delicious.

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So, the guy mentioned in the last thread, 36 year old nominated by Trump with no judicial experience, failed to disclose that he is married to the chief of staff of White House counsel Don McGahn.

What the fuck is it with Trump nominees and their damn disclosure forms?

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