OldGimletEye Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 23 hours ago, SeanF said: Amazingly, Moore still leads 49-43% in a Fox News opinion poll, conducted on Monday, Perhaps the only way he can lose is if he admits to voting for Hillary Clinton. Next on Fox: How sliming around your local high school or mall in your 40s is really really cool and fun!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: Next on Fox: How sliming around your local high school or mall in your 40s is really really cool and fun!!! 35% of those surveyed said the allegations made it more likely they'd vote for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 New Hatch plan makes host of individual tax cuts temporary As expected, the plan would kill the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate to have health insurance, beginning after next year. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/hatch-tax-plan-temporary-cuts-244915?lo=ap_d1 Hannity gives Moore '24 hours' https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/hannity-moore-alabama-allegations-244913 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: Next on Fox: How sliming around your local high school or mall in your 40s is really really cool and fun!!! He puts new meaning into the phrase 'mall crawl'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Today in: The Intellectual Leaders Of The Republican Party and Conservatism. https://www.vox.com/2017/11/15/16649292/hannity-conspiracy-theorist-transcript-data Quote A few days ago, Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore was accused of assaulting four underage girls decades ago, including a 14-year-old girl when he was 32. Moore's defense is a conspiracy theory. He tweeted that this was a political attack by the "Obama-Clinton Machine's liberal media lapdogs." In other words, he’s claiming there is an overarching story that explains the real truth, and it has to do with Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the liberal media working together to concoct evidence that he’s a pedophile. The day after Moore tweeted his defense, Fox News host Sean Hannity — the biggest star at the most influential news network in America — legitimized this claim. Quote But looking at Hannity's history, this was hardly surprising. I analyzed the past two years of transcript from Hannity, his Fox News show that airs every weeknight, and found a show that peddles conspiracy theories more than any other news show in the US. Hannity often mirrors the language of online conspiracy forums, and it's only gotten more frequent since Hannity's friend and fellow conspiracy theorist Donald Trump became president. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 44 minutes ago, SeanF said: Amazingly, Moore still leads 49-43% in a Fox News opinion poll, conducted on Monday, Perhaps the only way he can lose is if he admits to voting for Hillary Clinton. If you look at individual pollsters, there has been a -5 shift in Fox, -11 from Emerson, and -12 from JMC analytics and -5 from OpinionSavvy. So assuming they use their own special sauce to get the final numbers from raw data but are consistent about it, we can see there has been a shift away from Moore because of the scandal, probably in the mid to high single digits. Unfortunately, it may not be enough, but it is close enough now that turnout can make a huge difference (for instance, more Strange supporters staying home). Still, as of now Moore has to be the favorite to win the race down there. It will be much worse for the national GoP if he gets elected though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morpheus Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Meanwhile, Shepard Smith aired a segment debunking the uranium controversy and FOX viewers are calling for his head. These people do not want to be told the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 42 minutes ago, SeanF said: Amazingly, Moore still leads 49-43% in a Fox News opinion poll, conducted on Monday, Perhaps the only way he can lose is if he admits to voting for Hillary Clinton. Good ol' Alabama. Though there are a few points worth noting, *If it was conducted on Monday, it'd be before all the events of the day were heard by most respondents. Monday was when the national GOP really (and, perhaps most importantly, Richard Shelby) started breaking with Moore. *It's really hard for pollsters to figure out what the electorate for a special election looks like, so in some ways the trend lines for each pollster is what's most important. This poll is +6 Moore, while it previously was +11 Moore. That +10 Moore over the weekend was previously +22 Moore. The tied poll last week was previously +5 Moore, and the +4 Jones poll over the weekend was previously +8 Moore. All the polls agree that these allegations have hurt Moore quite a bit, they just aren't sure how overwhelming Republican the electorate already was. *Todd Akin still led in quite a few polls after his remarks came out, it was only after a few weeks that it was clear there had been a tidal shift; and even then the polls never quite captured the fact that he was going to lose by 16 points. *BUT, it is still Alabama; and being a Democrat is an enormous sin. And so is being pro-choice. I suspect that if Jones hadn't done that interview a few weeks ago (when he was much more of an underdog) where he came out so strongly pro-choice, he'd have a clear lead. I'm glad he's so pro-choice, but there's no value in trumpeting it so loudly to Alabama voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, denstorebog said: Bit of good news - Democrats flipped another House seat last night, this time in an Oklahoma district that went +40 for Trump. They won it by 34 (!) votes, which means a recount that probably won't change the result. Just being a bit pedantic here, but it was actually a state Senate seat that flipped, rather than a House seat. Still good news, nonetheless. That's the 4th legislative seat here to flip from red to blue this year. Want to give a shout-out to Anna Langthorn, the state Democratic chair who is currently giving Republicans hell at the tender age of 24(!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 9 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: Anyone here watch the Session's questioning by Congress today? Holy Shit! Does Congress have any sort of aparatus or means of holding this guy in contempt? Or labeling him a hostile witness or something? This guy is pathetic. Just rambling on endlessly without answering a question directly, burning the various questioners time before they can get to anything substantive, it's just fucking crazy. Yup, he spent the whole time filibustering Democrats while getting cover from Republicans. Oh, and talking about Crooked Hillary too. What’s truly amazing is how Sessions and so many other members of the Trump Administration are getting away with narrative of “Oh yeah, I forgot that then, but now I perfectly remember it and I swear I wasn’t lying before.” It’s becoming a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, SeanF said: Amazingly, Moore still leads 49-43% in a Fox News opinion poll, conducted on Monday, Perhaps the only way he can lose is if he admits to voting for Hillary Clinton. Even more disappointing than the polling, the on the ground reporters are saying that Moore’s support isn’t falling. I suspect the polling is capturing socially acceptable bias rather than people’s actual expected behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceluby Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Yup, he spent the whole time filibustering Democrats while getting cover from Republicans. Oh, and talking about Crooked Hillary too. What’s truly amazing is how Sessions and so many other members of the Trump Administration are getting away with narrative of “Oh yeah, I forgot that then, but now I perfectly remember it and I swear I wasn’t lying before.” It’s becoming a joke. I really loved the line of questioning about how he sent a guy to jail for amending his sworn testimony after the fact, and how he used that as the reason why Clinton needed to be impeached for it. But now that he's had to do it 3 different times now? No big deal. It happens. What a fucking weasel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Fez said: Good ol' Alabama. Though there are a few points worth noting, *If it was conducted on Monday, it'd be before all the events of the day were heard by most respondents. Monday was when the national GOP really (and, perhaps most importantly, Richard Shelby) started breaking with Moore. *It's really hard for pollsters to figure out what the electorate for a special election looks like, so in some ways the trend lines for each pollster is what's most important. This poll is +6 Moore, while it previously was +11 Moore. That +10 Moore over the weekend was previously +22 Moore. The tied poll last week was previously +5 Moore, and the +4 Jones poll over the weekend was previously +8 Moore. All the polls agree that these allegations have hurt Moore quite a bit, they just aren't sure how overwhelming Republican the electorate already was. *Todd Akin still led in quite a few polls after his remarks came out, it was only after a few weeks that it was clear there had been a tidal shift; and even then the polls never quite captured the fact that he was going to lose by 16 points. *BUT, it is still Alabama; and being a Democrat is an enormous sin. And so is being pro-choice. I suspect that if Jones hadn't done that interview a few weeks ago (when he was much more of an underdog) where he came out so strongly pro-choice, he'd have a clear lead. I'm glad he's so pro-choice, but there's no value in trumpeting it so loudly to Alabama voters. Even pre-scandal, Moore was never especially popular for a Republican in Alabama (Sessions won by 28% in 2008, as did Trump in 2016). It's just that any Republican has a huge in-built advantage in the State. As an aside, I do wonder if Akin would win today, given how far Missouri has shifted to the Republicans since 2012.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 34 minutes ago, aceluby said: I really loved the line of questioning about how he sent a guy to jail for amending his sworn testimony after the fact, and how he used that as the reason why Clinton needed to be impeached for it. But now that he's had to do it 3 different times now? No big deal. It happens. What a fucking weasel. Yeah the hypocrisy is out of control right now. On another note, this is the least shocking story ever: Quote White House economic adviser Gary Cohn appeared surprised at an event after few CEOs said they planned to invest more if the GOP's tax plan is passed. During an event for the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council, an editor at The Wall Street Journal asked the room: "If the tax reform bill goes through, do you plan to increase investment — your company's investment, capital investment?" People were asked to raise their hand. When few hands were raised, Cohn, the White House Economic Council director, asked: "Why aren't the other hands up?" http://thehill.com/policy/finance/360444-trump-economic-adviser-stunned-after-few-ceos-say-they-will-invest-more-if-tax It’s almost like these business tycoons don’t know the first thing about the business world……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mlle. Zabzie Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Yeah the hypocrisy is out of control right now. On another note, this is the least shocking story ever: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/360444-trump-economic-adviser-stunned-after-few-ceos-say-they-will-invest-more-if-tax It’s almost like these business tycoons don’t know the first thing about the business world……. OGE should really weigh in here, but (1) the expensing rules are temporary. If someone happens to plan to do some capital investment in the next 5 years, it is a windfall for them, but if they weren't, most long-range-plans/forecasts (LRP) only go out at most 5 years. Businesses don't plan beyond that. So depending on where a company is in its planning process they may not think they have a need for additional capex. Second, there is a ton of pressure from activist shareholders, among others, to return cash to shareholders through buybacks (reducing share count is usually viewed as a Good Thing). If the business has excess cash, activists would rather see it go back to the equity holders rather than being (in their view) frittered away by management on vanity M&A and speculative projects. Basically, this whole thing is a giant NUH DUH. I will weigh in shortly with a few thoughts on the Chairman's mark of the Senate proposal. However, one part of the House proposal that hasn't gotten a lot of attention is how inventors get slammed. Under current law, one can sell a self-created business and the portion of the purchase price allocable to a self-created patent is treated as capital gain. The House proposal would treat that as ordinary income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Yeah the hypocrisy is out of control right now. On another note, this is the least shocking story ever: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/360444-trump-economic-adviser-stunned-after-few-ceos-say-they-will-invest-more-if-tax It’s almost like these business tycoons don’t know the first thing about the business world……. Speaking of tax reform, new changes to the Senate plan sunset individual tax cuts after 2025, but make corporate tax cuts permanent. I mean seriously? It's starting to get cartoonish. Republicans might as well bring back top hats and monocles while they're at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Eater Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 we have had bonus depreciation and section 179 depreciation for several years. these were instituted to spur capital investment. they work the first few years they are implemented, but eventually, everyone who was waiting to invest in capital has done so. the instant write off of capital investment wont spur a large amount of capital investment. It only improves the return on investment projections when determining whether or not to move forward with a project. I am not really swayed one way or another on this. I think its lip service. what worries me are the tax cuts. reducing taxes on the top earners does not equal jobs for the lower earners. This is a falsehood. If you have a car lot, you employ the number of people you need to sell as many cars as you are able. If you could sell 10 more cars a week from hiring 2 more salespersons, you would. You could cut the taxes on the car lot owner to $0.00, and he wont create a single job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 5 hours ago, denstorebog said: Bit of good news - Democrats flipped another House seat last night, this time in an Oklahoma district that went +40 for Trump. They won it by 34 (!) votes, which means a recount that probably won't change the result. This was not a House set -- it was a seat in the state Senate. Still good news, but at the state rather than federal level. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/democrats-add-to-win-column-in-deep-red-oklahoma/2017/11/14/023da920-c9b7-11e7-b506-8a10ed11ecf5_story.html?utm_term=.355b333a4b65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said: Even more disappointing than the polling, the on the ground reporters are saying that Moore’s support isn’t falling. I suspect the polling is capturing socially acceptable bias rather than people’s actual expected behavior. Why would this be more disappointing than the polllng? I would think polling would be more accurate than individual reporters' impressions based on interviewing a non-random sample of Moore supporters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mlle. Zabzie Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Ok, a few highlights, randomly and in no order, on the Chairman's mark of the Senate Bill from last night: They, like the House, do away with the carryback of NOLs (except for certain insurance companies - whee, lobbyists). Doing away with the carryback is actually bad policy. In bankruptcy scenarios, there has been more than one time that the liquidity from the carryback has floated a company through Ch. 11, rather than it sinking into a liquidating 11. Also, for the first 5 years, you can only offset 90% of your income with NOLs, and thereafter only 80%, but there is an indefinite carryforward. This frankly makes no sense to me for lots of reasons. Your boss will no longer get a deduction for providing you lunch (or lunch at a reduced cost). So, no more lunch and learns. Embryos can have 529s. No deduction for settlements of sexual harrassment claims if there is an NDA. This is probably not a bad thing. Increase of the teacher expense deduction to $500/year, which is still frankly peanuts. And why this is through the tax code? SMH. There is a gift package for the liquor industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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