US politics: Alabama Jones and the Temple of Moore

[Mlle. Zabzie]

6 hours ago, Lany Freelove Cassandra said:

It also gets rid of the "New Markets Tax Credit" that encouraged investment in poor areas and the individual deduction for high medical expenses.

But it will be a good thing! Close those loop holes!

http://www.skyvalleychronicle.com/BREAKING-NEWS/On-Page-254-of-Republican-Tax-Reform-Plan-br-i-A-line-item-that-puts-the-screws-to-military-veterans-i-3023331

 

7 hours ago, Nasty LongRider said:

F'ng Republicans, just gotta be cruel bastards for your multi-billionaire masters.

 

So in a theoretical world, these kind of expenditures through the tax code are actually terrible policy.  First of all, you have to know they exist.  Second of all, unless they are refundable credits like the EIC, you have to make enough and have enough deductions so that it makes sense to itemize.  Then, you have to make not too much so that the benefit of the deduction isn't phased out.  Much better is to get rid of the noise and complexity and, you know, ACTUALLY RUN AN EFFING PROGRAM FOR VETERANS THROUGH THE VA OR HUD OR OTHER RELEVANT AGENCY THAT PEOPLE KNOW EXISTS AND CAN BE ACCESSED.  But we don't live in a theoretical world, sadly.

4 hours ago, Frog Eater said:

Sort of. The AMT removes the deductions for State and Local taxes, miscellaneous itemized deductions, as well as adjusting for depreciation. Donald Trump would owe more tax based on losing the deductions for State and Local taxes. 

Since the tax plan removes the deduction for State and Local taxes, this is the rationale for removing the AMT. 

Probably not true.  I don't know for sure, but I bet he carefully counts the days he spends in NY (and I bet that number is fewer than 182), so that takes care of the city tax.  To the extent NY resident, his entities probably pay some NY unincorporated business tax - so that is something he would be somewhat hit with.  However, he will still be able to deduct those under the House Bill.  Then, given the fact that most state business taxes follow the federal model (with some exceptions), I bet he wouldn't have much taxable income to start with, and then you'd have to run through the apportionment rules - though many of his properties are in high tax states, so there is that.  And if you don't think he and his family wouldn't be HUGE beneficiaries of the 25% rate in the House Bill, you'd be dead wrong. 

 

3 hours ago, Eggegg said:

She's wearing a kevlar vest in that photo? Good luck touching anything there.

If you think actually touching skin is necessary for something to be violative, you'd be wrong.

Really curious to see what happens next in the tax saga.  There had been a lot of speculation that folks wanted to avoid two votes.  So the question is whether the Senate sort of drops everything and kind of accepts the House Bill, or, instead plows ahead.  I'm guessing the latter, which is sort of curious, because as constructed, it's not clear that the Senate bill can pass.  Maybe the strategy is to have the Senate bill bomb, then have the Senate just take up the House bill after they have proven that ACA repeal isn't happening?  Don't know.

[Darth Richard II]

6 minutes ago, zelticgar said:

Are we seriously arguing this right now? Good luck making the case that this is not groping. 

The argument I guess is whether he's actually touching her in the photo. Which is pointless nitpicking, but, internet bros gonna internet.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Really curious to see what happens next in the tax saga.  There had been a lot of speculation that folks wanted to avoid two votes.  So the question is whether the Senate sort of drops everything and kind of accepts the House Bill, or, instead plows ahead.  I'm guessing the latter, which is sort of curious, because as constructed, it's not clear that the Senate bill can pass.  Maybe the strategy is to have the Senate bill bomb, then have the Senate just take up the House bill after they have proven that ACA repeal isn't happening?  Don't know.

Could the Senate even pass the House version? I guess we need to wait for a CBO score, but I thought the House version violated the Byrd rule.

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Really curious to see what happens next in the tax saga.  There had been a lot of speculation that folks wanted to avoid two votes.  So the question is whether the Senate sort of drops everything and kind of accepts the House Bill, or, instead plows ahead.  I'm guessing the latter, which is sort of curious, because as constructed, it's not clear that the Senate bill can pass.  Maybe the strategy is to have the Senate bill bomb, then have the Senate just take up the House bill after they have proven that ACA repeal isn't happening?  Don't know.

I haven't been closely following all the twists and turns, there's too many. But I thought the House bill wasn't remotely reconciliation-compliant, so the Senate couldn't do anything with it anyway (aka, the exact same situation as the ACA repeal bill). I'm pretty sure the Senate bill isn't reconciliation compliant yet either, though it's getting close.

[Mexal]

2 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

The argument I guess is whether he's actually touching her in the photo. Which is pointless nitpicking, but, internet bros gonna internet.

Well, it's the difference between groping her and being an asshole. So not sure that's nitpicking.

In other news, Kushner isn't being forthcoming about a number of things.

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

2017 was when we realized the whole world was rotten.

Anyway, I take it this House bill will not pass the Senate?

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

A second woman has come forward complaining about Al Franken

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2017/11/16/second-female-accuser-coming-forward-accusation-al-franken-stalked-harassed-563856?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Okaaaay. So I'm not saying that Franken is innocent of all this, or that he's innocent of anything.

That having been said...these new allegations have been brought forward by Melanie Morgan, another right-wing media personality. 

Morgan and Michelle Malkin organized a pro-troop "webathon"[13] on June 26, 2008. Conservative talk-show talent Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Mark Levin participated. MAF members raised an aggregate of $1.055 million in gifts for U.S. soldiers and Iraqi children.

So, two right-wing media personalities accuse Franken of sexual harassment within hours of one another. Again, not saying nothing happened...but, maybe let's wait for a little more evidence before we start crucifying him.

[Mexal]

1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

So, two right-wing media personalities accuse Franken of sexual harassment within hours of one another. Again, not saying nothing happened...but, maybe let's wait for a little more evidence before we start crucifying him.

That and it appears Roger Stone knew it was coming prior to it coming out.

[Mexal]

This is is bad. How long until Murdoch owns the entire media landscape?

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

I haven't been closely following all the twists and turns, there's too many. But I thought the House bill wasn't remotely reconciliation-compliant, so the Senate couldn't do anything with it anyway (aka, the exact same situation as the ACA repeal bill). I'm pretty sure the Senate bill isn't reconciliation compliant yet either, though it's getting close.

I am wondering how long they will actually adhere to their own rules.  I actually really wonder this.  But yes, I have a similar understanding (that it is too expensive).  So it may be largely symbolic so that House R's can go back to their districts and say that they tried.  But I'm really struggling with the game theory and the messaging here.  

3 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

2017 was when we realized the whole world was rotten.

Anyway, I take it this House bill will not pass the Senate?

If I had to guess, the Senate will pass its own bill by next Tuesday.  Then the question is whether the House will take it up.  

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

If I had to guess, the Senate will pass its own bill by next Tuesday.  Then the question is whether the House will take it up.  

Ryan has committed to voting on basically anything the Senate approves. He doesn't care at all about it, and believes (probably rightly) that there is nothing that would damage anyone in a Republican district more than not passing something.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Ryan has committed to voting on basically anything the Senate approves. He doesn't care at all about it, and believes (probably rightly) that there is nothing that would damage anyone in a Republican district more than not passing something.

So yeah - that's going to happen then.  So everyone should take a good look at the Senate Bill.  And if you don't like it, call your congressperson ASAP.  Because the train is rolling.  I personally think they do it, warts and all.

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I am wondering how long they will actually adhere to their own rules.  I actually really wonder this.  But yes, I have a similar understanding (that it is too expensive).  So it may be largely symbolic so that House R's can go back to their districts and say that they tried.  But I'm really struggling with the game theory and the messaging here.  

I think they're are too many Republican senators opposed to turning the Senate into a more exclusive House, to make a rule change like that. Both for tradition and for fear of what Democrats would do next time they're in majority. Yeah, they changed the rules for Gorsch, but there they could credibly say they were just following the precedent Reid started.

Also, I don't think there's 50 senators in favor of any bill yet; which is step one to doing anything anyway.

[Bonnot OG]

Franken needs to resign and not wait on an ethics committee investigation. Each day he stays in office is each day the Moore campaign can point to how allegations shouldn't matter since a sitting senator won't resign, and use that as a reason as to why he shouldn't drop out of the race. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

27 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Well, it's the difference between groping her and being an asshole. So not sure that's nitpicking.

Yeah, it's not a nitpick. It's the difference between actually groping/fondling her and aping it for a photo. Do you honestly believe he'd be stupid enough to actually fondle her while being photographed on a USO Tour? 

[Mexal]

12 minutes ago, Sword of Doom said:

Franken needs to resign and not wait on an ethics committee investigation. Each day he stays in office is each day the Moore campaign can point to how allegations shouldn't matter since a sitting senator won't resign, and use that as a reason as to why he shouldn't drop out of the race. 

The Moore campaign gives no fucks about this. Seriously, this is what Roy Moore said at his press conference today.

"We need moral values back in our country" - Roy Moore, 11/16/17.

He does not care about Franken. He is sticking to the line that all of the allegations are a political hit job orchestrated by the Washington Post, Democrats and most especially, Mitch McConnell. 

 

[DanteGabriel]

16 minutes ago, Sword of Doom said:

Franken needs to resign and not wait on an ethics committee investigation. Each day he stays in office is each day the Moore campaign can point to how allegations shouldn't matter since a sitting senator won't resign, and use that as a reason as to why he shouldn't drop out of the race. 

Whether or not Franken resigns, do it on its own merits, not because it gives ammo to Republicans to say mean things. Doing something because you think it'll keep Republicans from criticizing you just means you do what they want and they criticize you anyway. Time for the Democrats to act instead of reacting to some imagined backlash from troglodytes who have no interest in fairness or consistency.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

2 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Whether or not Franken resigns, do it on its own merits, not because it gives ammo to Republicans to say mean things. Doing something because you think it'll keep Republicans from criticizing you just means you do what they want and they criticize you anyway. Time for the Democrats to act instead of reacting to some imagined backlash from troglodytes who have no interest in fairness or consistency.

SO MUCH THIS.

You can't conflate what we know about Franken with fucking Statuatory Rape. This is all about a senate contender who is a fucking kiddy-diddler. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

23 minutes ago, Fez said:

I think they're are too many Republican senators opposed to turning the Senate into a more exclusive House, to make a rule change like that. Both for tradition and for fear of what Democrats would do next time they're in majority. Yeah, they changed the rules for Gorsch, but there they could credibly say they were just following the precedent Reid started.

Also, I don't think there's 50 senators in favor of any bill yet; which is step one to doing anything anyway.

I think that's right, but I'm not sure.  But you are right on there not being 50 Senators in favor of a bill, and I don't think the recent changes helped that.  I actually think they could have gotten the original version more or less through....  

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I think that's right, but I'm not sure.  But you are right on there not being 50 Senators in favor of a bill, and I don't think the recent changes helped that.  I actually think they could have gotten the original version more or less through....  

Pretty much already have Collins, Johnson and Corker against this bill. Hard to see how it passes at this stage.