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US politics: Alabama Jones and the Temple of Moore

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13 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

So, the guy mentioned in the last thread, 36 year old nominated by Trump with no judicial experience, failed to disclose that he is married to the chief of staff of White House counsel Don McGahn.

What the fuck is it with Trump nominees and their damn disclosure forms?

It is really had to run a criminal organization rife with quid pro quo, treason, robbery, and nepotism when there is so much paperwork hanging neon lights on everything.

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18 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

It is really had to run a criminal organization rife with quid pro quo, treason, robbery, and nepotism when there is so much paperwork hanging neon lights on everything.

It's only a crime if people decide to prosecute it.

We are seeing precisely how much of behavior we had thought was monitored by legality is actually monitored by unwritten norms - and we are seeing how little those actually matter. 

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9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's only a crime if people decide to prosecute it.

We are seeing precisely how much of behavior we had thought was monitored by legality is actually monitored by unwritten norms - and we are seeing how little those actually matter. 

Oh, I know, I was just jokingly answering the question. I don't think Trump will face consequences for anything, Republicans will even find a way to rationalize away anything Mueller may find; I know a lot of people are looking to him as a white knight to lay down the law.

in other news, another accuser has stepped forward accusing Moore of assaulting her as a minor. She is giving a press conference describing the encounter in graphic detail in clear emptional distress, and you just know a bunch of people are about to publicly call her a liar

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21 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Also, this sounds bad. Is it bad?

 

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/930161596751663110

And here it is:

And here is Sen. Gardner in response:

 

Only question now is, will any Republicans cross the previously-reserved-only-for-David-Duke-rubicon and endorse the Democrat?

My guess is no, but I think Jones is now more than just the slight favorite I thought he was this morning.

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1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I think it's pretty fucking bad.

Nelson, the woman making the allegations against Moore, alleges that he attempted to rape her and told her no one would believe her if she told anyone.

As @Fez points out, the NRSC throwing him under the bus is even worse for him. 

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Sessions can still step down as AG and reclaim his seat, right?

At some point here, doesnt that become the most palatable solution for the Republicans?

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2 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

Sessions can still step down as AG and reclaim his seat, right?

At some point here, doesnt that become the most palatable solution for the Republicans?

That's really, really unclear at this point.

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3 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

Sessions can still step down as AG and reclaim his seat, right?

At some point here, doesnt that become the most palatable solution for the Republicans?

He can't "reclaim" his seat. If the Alabama government is able to somehow cancel the present election and reschedule it, he could run again and reclaim the seat through re-election. But it is unclear at this point if that would be allowed under Alabama law. 

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8 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

As @Fez points out, the NRSC throwing him under the bus is even worse for him. 

Bad for Moore personally, but it seems like a backdoor way of allowing the governor to appoint an interim Republican Senator until another special election can be called.

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4 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

Sessions can still step down as AG and reclaim his seat, right?

At some point here, doesnt that become the most palatable solution for the Republicans?

He could run as a write-in, but Moore still has his own supporters. If Moore doesn't drop out, it'd probably just split the vote and let Jones still win.

If Moore is elected and the Senate did actually expel him as soon as he is seated (they can't refuse to seat him at all), that's where it gets complicated. Unclear if Gov. Ivey could appoint Sessions or if there would need to be another special election (though at that point I think Sessions wins fairly easily, even if Moore runs again, simply by being able to have his name listed on the ballot).

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thanks all. Sessions stepping down and reclaiming his seat is too easy I guess

The Republicans are going to have to continue backing Roy Moore, as distasteful as that is. You would have thought the Republican Party, at least at the Alabama State level would have background checked the guy running for the Senate seat to make sure, you know, he doesnt have a long history of trying to molest high school girls. 

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Molestation obviously takes it to a horrible new level, but Moore was always a piece of shit and Republicans always looked bad backing him. A twice disgraced judge with wild extremist religious views, openly racist, anti-LGBT- he was always going to symbolize how insane Republicans have become and how dangerous Trumpian populism is to the country. Many Republicans in the Senate were even willing to accept  probable child molester last week, because tribalism Trumps everything.

Edited by Morpheus

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2 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Molestation obviously takes it to a horrible new level, but Moore was always a piece of shit and Republicans always looked bad backing him. A twice disgraced judge with wild extremist religious views, openly racist, anti-LGBT- he was always going to symbolize how insane Republicans have become and how dangerous Trumpian populism is to the country. Many Republicans were even willing to accept  probable child molester last week, because tribalism Trumps everything.

This chart explains US politics better than almost anything I can think of as far as a framework. 

Conservatives value ingroup dynamics far more than Liberals do. Result: liberals happily will jump in with conservatives in condemning one of their own, especially when the outrage is around harming kids and about unfair power dynamics - this explains Weinstein. They will also condemn Moore, but Moore will be acceptable for a lot longer due to ingroup stuff.

Liberals care deeply about hypocrisy, because hypocrisy involves unfairness, one of the two deeply important values to them. For conservatives it is somewhat important, but not as important as authority and ingroup acceptance. 

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23 hours ago, Kalbear said:

 

This chart explains US politics better than almost anything I can think of as far as a framework. 

Conservatives value ingroup dynamics far more than Liberals do. Result: liberals happily will jump in with conservatives in condemning one of their own, especially when the outrage is around harming kids and about unfair power dynamics - this explains Weinstein. They will also condemn Moore, but Moore will be acceptable for a lot longer due to ingroup stuff.

Liberals care deeply about hypocrisy, because hypocrisy involves unfairness, one of the two deeply important values to them. For conservatives it is somewhat important, but not as important as authority and ingroup acceptance. 

Always had the suspicion that the urge to play team Republican was always strong, no matter how absurd.

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Just now, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

 "I'm Doug Jones, and when I go to the courthouse it's to find justice, not 14 year old girls."

the whole thing is just gross. just gross. 

 

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So I think here are the scenarios, in order of least to most palatable to Republicans:

  • Doug Jones outright defeats Roy Moore/writein/whatever and becomes the next Senator. If this is a realistic possibility I would strongly suspect that Republicans will pull a lot of shenanigans to stop it.
  • Roy Moore steps down, lets Doug Jones win.
  • Moore wins, gets immediately expelled. My suspicion is that this would mean the seat would remain empty until another election - and there is no guarantee Moore wouldn't win AGAIN in this case. 
  • Republicans cancel this election and redo. 
  • Some weird-ass parliamentary ruling that allows Roy Moore to step down and Sessions/Strange to take over the seat again. 

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