Jon is not in the line of succession

[Alexis-something-Rose]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Why would Rhaegar want to help the man who had Lyanna's father and brother cruelly executed? Why is Rhaegar fighting a war against Lyanna's living brother(s)?

Is he helping his father, or is he trying to keep his family safe? What he tells Jaime before he leaves for the Trident seems to indicate that Aerys is not long for the throne. 

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Lyanna wouldn't have been in any danger at court if she had been with Rhaegar. After all, Rhaegar was the new supreme commander of the Targaryen army. And if Rhaegar could command three Kingsguard to remain with Lyanna in the middle of nowhere and if he could take the remaining KG (save Jaime) with him to the Trident he could also have taken Lyanna with him to the Trident if he had felt she wasn't save at KL. He could also have dumped her at Maidenpool or Harrenhal where he had close friends in the Mootons and Whents, if he had no intention to endanger her life and the life of the unborn child by dragging her along in the army.

If Lyanna was the KotLT and Aerys found out about that, I think her life would be in danger. Her father and brother were killed for being traitors. He thought his own son was a traitor. 

And yes, he could have left her at any number of places, but she is pregnant and the land is at war. 

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But the point here is that it is ridiculous that Aerys would legitimize or acknowledge or accept or whatever any unborn child of Rhaegar's by Lyanna if he also had issues with Lyanna herself, leading to her staying at the tower. Not to mention the fact that this would be a ridiculous thing to ask or do.

This, I agree with. I don't even know why Rhaegar would open his mouth about this at all. And I doubt Aerys would have been pleased at all.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Is he helping his father, or is he trying to keep his family safe? What he tells Jaime before he leaves for the Trident seems to indicate that Aerys is not long for the throne. 

The fact that he wasn't able to keep Elia and his children safe indicates that things weren't that easy. He didn't leave any men of his own household - men he could trust - at the Red Keep to keep an eye on them. At least, not unless we count Jaime as one of those people.

And it was definitely Aerys who gave Rhaegar command of the army, who put him in a position from which a victorious Rhaegar could try to seize power. It was also Aerys who summoned Rhaegar to court in the first place.

4 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

If Lyanna was the KotLT and Aerys found out about that, I think her life would be in danger. Her father and brother were killed for being traitors. He thought his own son was a traitor. 

It makes no sense to assume that a paranoid man like Aerys wouldn't have interrogated his son very thoroughly before he allowed him to lead his armies. Aerys wasn't dependent on Rhaegar. Barristan, Jonothor Darry, Prince Lewyn all could have commanded his armies. He could have given command to his Hand, Lord Chelsted, or he could have charged Gerold Hightower with the task prior to giving the task to bring Rhaegar to court.

Without some sort of reconciliation between father and son - Aerys realizing/concluding that Rhaegar did not, in fact, plot with the Starks against him since Robert and Ned were convincingly calling for both Aerys and Rhaegar's head, and Rhaegar wasn't exactly making common cause with the rebels - it makes no sense whatsoever that Aerys trusted Rhaegar to deal with Robert. If he had still thought the man intended to betray him or to kill he would have burned him alive instead of giving him command of his armies.

4 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

And yes, he could have left her at any number of places, but she is pregnant and the land is at war. 

We don't know whether Rhaegar knew Lyanna was pregnant when he left her. Even if he did know that - she would have been only in the early state of her pregnancy at that point. Rhaegar had to raise and train new troops before he marched off to the Trident. That took months. And it seems Lyanna's child was born only shortly before Ned reached the tower.

It is actually much more likely that Lyanna - who essentially was a dialed-up, older version of Arya - did not approve of Rhaegar fighting against Robert and Ned, helping the monstrous madman who cruelly executed her father and brother. And then Rhaegar chose to put her under the care of men he could trust to ensure that she wasn't doing anything foolish.

Taking Lyanna to the Trident could also have helped to end the war. Lyanna could have tried to reach a settlement between the rebels and Rhaegar. Even if Robert had not been willing to listen, Ned might have. And that would have cost Robert a decent part of his army, perhaps even resulting in Hoster pulling his forces back, too.

There must be very good explanations as to why that didn't happen. And that would be connected to the nature of the relationship Rhaegar and Lyanna had at that point.

The fact that she indicates she was in love with Rhaegar on her deathbed doesn't mean she felt that way the entire time - she could only have realized (the depth) her true feelings when she learned of his death - nor does it mean that they got along or had the same political views the entire time.

4 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

This, I agree with. I don't even know why Rhaegar would open his mouth about this at all. And I doubt Aerys would have been pleased at all.

He would have been forced to tell him something about Lyanna. Assuming Aerys didn't already know stuff. After all, Hightower did find Rhaegar. Which means Aerys himself may have gotten reports on Rhaegar's movements and deeds via Varys.

Whether he told him that she was pregnant we don't know. But I'm sure he would have been forced to tell him that they were married if that was the case. Assuming Rhaegar and Lyanna did marry in secret if they married. That would have made little sense from their point of view. The abduction thing is rape and a crime, done against the will of the Starks and Baratheon. A marriage gives the whole thing legitimacy, at least after the fact.

Ramsay Snow doesn't abduct Lady Hornwood to hide her somewhere. He abducts her to marry her. And he marries her in front of witnesses to ensure that everybody knows they are married. If Rhaegar and Lyanna married they would have done something similar so that Aerys, Robert, Rickard, etc. could never even dream of the possibility of separating them again.

The whole polygamy thing would have made it difficult, of course, and they might have had troubles over that their entire lives (is it a real marriage, are Lyanna's children legitimate royal children, etc.), but Rhaegar's grandfather and grandmother and granduncles got through all their controversial marriages, so he may have thought he could, too.

[Faera]

Jon's place as a possible successor for the Iron Throne was always going to be precarious even if a valid court record of marriage and birth were uncovered. People would debate it, question it, argue whether it could be legally valid.... and actuality, no Targaryens are in the line of succession because they lost the throne to the Baratheons. The only way the Targs are getting it back is if they conquer it. Even then, I don't foresee Jon adding his name to the hat if he lives.

If a crowd does gather around Jon, seeking to make him a legitimate Targ King, it would based on a technicality that he was legitimised in Robb's will. Granted it was to make him Stark but as I said, it's a technicality- much like how his technically dying frees him from his NW vows. Much like how you could never prove for certain Tommen and Myrcella weren't Robert's no matter how many bastards you trotted out, you could never prove Rhaegar was Jon's true father no matter how many witnesses there might be to say so. In the end, it's all about what people believe is true.

[Tygett Lannister]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran and Arianne might actually doubt he is the real deal. But publicly they will have to support him anyway, or risk falling of the Targaryen loyalist bandwagon. Even more so when they learn about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr (which makes it very unlikely she has the intention of coming to Westeros) and her subsequent disappearance/death (which makes the Quentyn plan impossible). Not to mention their reaction to the news about Quentyn's death.

The Targaryen loyalists will show their true colors after Aegon declares himself at Storm's End. And I'm reasonably confident that half the Realm or more will declare for him, throughout all the different regions (most of them in the Crownlands, the Reach, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands - but one could see some Targaryen loyalists in the West, the Vale, and even the North). People want to believe that beloved Rhaegar's little son did not die. Especially when they so desperately in need of a true king as they are right now.

If the Martells decided to stay at home yet again they would really have no purpose in this story whatsoever.

Of course Doran won't believe Aegon is real but he will still follow him.

I don't think there is many Targaryen hardcore loyalists, most of the nobles are just opportunistic and will support Aegon because they are unhappy with current government and maybe hope to be rewarded for their support in claiming the Throne.

[Megorova]

10 hours ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

George is ignoring real world genetics, when he want's too. With Mariah's and Ella's kids, I don't think George is trying to use real world genetics with them. It's a hint to the reader that not every Targ has the standard Targ look. At least thats what I take from it. 

Not every Targ has a standard Targ look, because one of their parents/grandparents weren't a Targ. And some of that person's genes were dominant, while some of their Targaryen spouse's genes were recessive. Thus some of their children inherited looks of their Targaryen parent, and some of them inherited looks of their non-Targaryen parent.

Baelor had dark looks of his Martell mother, and even though his brother Maekar had brand Targaryen looks (his eyes were violet, and his hair was such a pale blond that it was almost white), he also was carrier of Martell's genes from his mother's side. As result, his son Daeron also didn't exactly looked like a typical Targaryen (he had sandy brown hair and a blonde beard <- dark genes of his Martell grandmother diluted his Targ genes/looks).

If non-Targaryen looking Targaryens, didn't have no not-Targaryen parents/grandparents, THEN it would mean that Georgre is ignoring real world genetics. But so far, there are evidences, which prove that he is mindful of it.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Unborn children can neither be legitimized nor acknowledged.

http://www.businessinsider.com/youngest-monarchs-in-history-2017-2

"Shapur II, who ruled Sasanian Empire of Persia, was a monarch immediately upon his birth in 309 AD because his father had recently died. But legend has it that he was crowned while still in his mother's womb. (Literally: They apparently put a crown on top of his mother's belly.)"

More examples:

"http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Hornwood_Inheritance_and_the_Whents

What if there are no childen, only grandchildren and great grandchildren. Is precedence or proximity the more important principle? Do bastards have any rights? What about bastards who have been legitimized, do they go in at the end after the trueborn kids, or according to birth order? What about widows? And what about the will of the deceased? Can a lord disinherit one son, and name a younger son as heir? Or even a bastard?

There are no clear cut answers, either in Westeros or in real medieval history. Things were often decided on a case by case basis. A case might set a precedent for later cases"

This text is also from Citadel, about case from real world history:

"In fact, if you look at medieval history, conflicting claims were the cause of three quarters of the wars. The Hundred Years War grew out of a dispute about whether a nephew or a grandson of Philip the Fair had a better claim to the throne of France. The nephew got the decision, because the grandson's claim passed through a daughter (and because he was the king of England too). And that mess was complicated by one of the precedents (the Salic Law) that had been invented a short time before to resolve the dispute after the death of Philip's eldest son, where the claimants were (1) the daughter of Philip's eldest son, who may or may not have been a bastard, her mother having been an adulteress, (2) the unborn child of the eldest son that his secon wife was carrying, sex unknown, and (3) Philip's second son, another Philip. Lawyers for (3) dug up the Salic Law to exclude (1) and possibly (2) if she was a girl, but (2) was a boy so he became king, only he died a week later, and (3) got the throne after all."

<- Unborn yet child was claimant for crown of France.

Even when he wasn't born yet, he was still one of candidates, and even had his own lawyers that were defending his rights during inheritance dispute.

Quote

And the fact that Lyanna stayed at a tower in the middle of nowhere doesn't exactly indicate that Rhaegar had any interest to present her - or any children they might have - to his royal parents or the court.

She was "heavily" pregnant, and there was war and battles going on, on territories thru which they would have to go, to get from Dorne to King's Landing. Rhaegar didn't take her with him, when he went to royal castle, because of the obvious reason - pregnancy + war = problematic logistics.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaegar's son would have a claim to the Iron Throne but only a very weak claim to Winterfell.

So what? He never expected that one day he will become Lord of Winterfell. Furthermore, if he will become King of 7K, he will reign all Seven Kingdoms including The North, so no matter who will be Lord or Lady of Winterfell, that person will be bending the knee to him, and calling him "my King" and "my Lord".

10 hours ago, Damsel in Distress said:

Jon doesn't have a legitimate claim.  He's not in the line of succession.  Jon is not a Targaryen. 

We don't know that.

2 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

So I would say Rhaegar would have to be 'bb' in both eye & hair color

100%.

All were lighthaired, blue-eyed - Rhaegar, his brother Viserys, his sister Daenerys, their father Aerys and mother Rhaella, his grandparents Jaehaerys and Shaera, his great grandfather Aegon V (though his wife Betha Blackwood had dark hair and eyes), his great great grandfather Maekar I (married with Dyanna Dayne, who probably was darkhaired like Ashara Dayne), his great great great grandfather Daeron II (whose wife Mariah Martell had dark hair and eyes, though her own grandfather was a blond blue-eyed Valyrian). In Rhaegar's family in span of 6 generations, out of his 10 ancestors only 3 were of dark coloring, but all 3 were married with typical Targaryens, and out of their 15 children only 2 (Baelor and Duncan) were dark colored. So Rhaegar definitely was bb, eyes and hair, and he couldn't be a carrier of any B genes. Thus dark coloring of his children, are entirely because of their mothers. And because B genes are dominant, it's imposible for Rhaegar to have a blond child with Elia.

Young Griff is fake.

4 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

This whole genetics debate is getting out of hand, the only reason it was brought it up was to explain why silver haired Aegon (even if he's fake) is a more believable Targaryen than dark haired Jon. So let's just end it with this

Let's. Though the fact alone that Young Griff has light hair and blue/violet eyes, doesn't mean that he is a Targaryen. And the fact that Jon looks like a Stark, doesn't mean that he is not Rhaegar's son. Or that people will believe, based on looks alone, to fAegon, and won't believe to Jon. Because there was already a case in previous history of 7K, when a Targaryen-looking person wasn't a Targaryen - second Blackfyre rebellion, The Mystery Knight, Daemon II Blackfyre.

Could be that the reason why fAegon was added into the story, because he will bring to 7K, ancestral sword of Targaryens - Blackfyre. Maybe this sword is Lightbringer.

[Pikachu101]

9 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Though the fact alone that Young Griff has light hair and blue/violet eyes, doesn't mean that he is a Targaryen. And the fact that Jon looks like a Stark, doesn't mean that he is not Rhaegar's son.

I think most of the fandom (including myself) believe Aegon to be a fake and Jon's the real deal, but this isn't about us it's about Westeros and in a world where you can't go on Jeremy Kyle to prove your paternity people use looks instead. Aegon looks like Rhaegar whilst Jon looks like Ned people will come up with their own conclusion. 

15 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Or that people will believe, based on looks alone, to fAegon, and won't believe to Jon.

But it's not just about looks Aegon has Jon Connington to vouch for him, he has an army, Elia's family is coming to meet him, he just conquered Storm's End etc. the fact of the matter is Aegon fits the role of the Targaryen prince who came back to reclaim his throne. 

21 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Could be that the reason why fAegon was added into the story, because he will bring to 7K, ancestral sword of Targaryens - Blackfyre. Maybe this sword is Lightbringer.

Maybe, I honestly have no idea why George wrote him in, some say he's Perkin Warbeck and others say he's Henry VII we just don't know. But I do like your theory about Lightbringer. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

@Lord Varys, I went quickly through your reply, so I hope I'm not misinterpreting what you said. I do believe that we will have to agree to disagree. I think we can sit here and go several rounds on this, but here's what I understand.

The first thing is that shit seems to hit the fan after Aegon's birth which I think is important. Aegon's birth consolidates Rhaegar's own power. He now has an heir and the people who may have been working to undermine him may not like this so much. Varys is allegedly one such person and if he is working to put his own man on the throne, then Aegon's birth is not something he would like.

The second thing is it doesn't matter how many questions Aerys asks Rhaegar and how well "vetted" he is before he names him commander of his armies. Aerys needs Rhaegar and Rhaegar can tell him whatever he wants. We have seen people in the series lie to their family, their king and the realm and go to extreme lengths to protect those they love. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

http://www.businessinsider.com/youngest-monarchs-in-history-2017-2

"Shapur II, who ruled Sasanian Empire of Persia, was a monarch immediately upon his birth in 309 AD because his father had recently died. But legend has it that he was crowned while still in his mother's womb. (Literally: They apparently put a crown on top of his mother's belly.)"

More examples:

"http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Hornwood_Inheritance_and_the_Whents

Those example don't connect to the issue at hand. Aerys II had two sons and one grandson already. And the status of Lyanna any children of hers are completely unclear.

If a king has a pregnant wife then such a child can be seen as the successor. Or not. But this isn't question we are discussing here. Without the royal family, the court, and the Realm knowing that Lyanna was a royal princess by marriage or pregnant with the son of a royal prince this is a moot question. If a lord or king has a secret wife or mistress who gives birth in the gutter the child won't be seen and recognized a prince, never mind the blood relations. Vice versa, a queen sleeping around - like Queen Rhaenys, the mother of Aenys I, Rhaenyra, and Cersei did - allows her to make her children the king's children, never mind who actually fathered them.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

She was "heavily" pregnant, and there was war and battles going on, on territories thru which they would have to go, to get from Dorne to King's Landing. Rhaegar didn't take her with him, when he went to royal castle, because of the obvious reason - pregnancy + war = problematic logistics.

See above. Rhaegar spent months raising and training the new army. Lyanna's child was born after the Trident, and presumably even after the Sack, if we go consider her dying of injuries or a sickness brought on by the birth.

Her belly would have been pretty flat when Rhaegar went to KL. Perhaps they didn't even know yet that she was pregnant.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

So what? He never expected that one day he will become Lord of Winterfell. Furthermore, if he will become King of 7K, he will reign all Seven Kingdoms including The North, so no matter who will be Lord or Lady of Winterfell, that person will be bending the knee to him, and calling him "my King" and "my Lord".

If the whole 'independent North' thing isn't going to die, and if Jon ends up being the new ruler in the North and at Winterfell in the wake of Stannis' eventual death then nobody up there might want to hear that 'Targaryen story'. Especially if Jon ended up being legitimized as Eddard Stark's son as per Robb last will. If accepted that, he would accept an identity as a Stark. 

If you are an adopted child you can reject your birth family.

Jon would most likely only care about his Targaryen parentage and identity if he ended up hooking up with House Targaryen (i.e. most likely Daenerys). All by himself he has no connection whatsoever to those people, and subsequently no reason to ever lay claim to the Iron Throne.

41 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

The first thing is that shit seems to hit the fan after Aegon's birth which I think is important. Aegon's birth consolidates Rhaegar's own power. He now has an heir and the people who may have been working to undermine him may not like this so much. Varys is allegedly one such person and if he is working to put his own man on the throne, then Aegon's birth is not something he would like.

Not sure what that has to do with anything. Varys may have his own motives, but Aegon's birth is never considered a problem. He is still a child, and Aerys II had severe issues with Rhaegar in the months and years before that, escalating even more at Harrenhal. It is quite clear that Aerys had sufficient power to do everything he wanted, including cruelly executing great lords. Rhaegar wasn't save from him, either.

41 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

The second thing is it doesn't matter how many questions Aerys asks Rhaegar and how well "vetted" he is before he names him commander of his armies. Aerys needs Rhaegar and Rhaegar can tell him whatever he wants. We have seen people in the series lie to their family, their king and the realm and go to extreme lengths to protect those they love. 

You are wrong there. Aerys does not need Rhaegar. He may have wished to reconcile with his son - there must be a reason why he gave him command - but objectively the man didn't need his son. He had more than capable men to command his armies in his stead. If you think back to the Ninepenny Kings Prince Aerys accompanied the army to the Stepstones but command lay with Lord Ormund Baratheon, the Hand, and after his death with Ser Gerold Hightower, the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. The very same Ser Gerold could also have led the king's armies against Robert.

Rhaegar could technically lie to Aerys and the court, but he must have given some explanation as to what he did for the last year or so. And they all knew that he had taken Lyanna. They may also have known that he married her. Rhaegar was the Prince of Dragonstone. It would be very difficult for him to keep something secret. Even if he is out there in the wild somewhere. He has silver-gold hair, purple eyes, and royal clothes and armor. And he is accompanied by two knights of the Kingsguard and, most likely, by a retinue of other companions for the first half of his journey.

Aerys, Rhaella, and the court may have known the truth about Rhaegar and Lyanna from the day Jon Connington, Myles Mooton (who later both fought at Stoney Sept) and Richard Lonmouth returned to court. Those three most likely were with Rhaegar on his journey along with Whent and Dayne when he took Lyanna. And Aerys later made Jon Connington his Hand in Rhaegar's stead. That means Aerys somehow trusted this man to a rather high degree - which, in turn, must also mean that he had regained his trust in Rhaegar at that point.

The logical endpoint of all that is that Aerys had no real issues with the Rhaegar-Lyanna thing. He may have even regretted having killed Rickard and Brandon Stark.

The big opponent of both Aerys and Rhaegar - the man they fear and want to deal with - is their cousin Robert, not Eddard Stark. Even Connington believes Ned and Hoster had bent the knee if he had killed Robert at Stoney Sept.

[Megorova]

8 hours ago, LynnS said:

So I am curious about that legitimacy, especially if Stannis makes him a recognized bastard or Great Bastard.

It's disputable whether even Robb, as sort of self proclaimed King of independant/separated North, could have given to Jon a legitimate status. I think that even if he could, that would have been limited entirely to The North, and not acknowleged in other 6 Kingdoms.

And Stannis is not a King of 7K, neither is he a King in The North, like Robb was. So Stannis has no authority to legitimize Jon. All he has are just ambitions and lots of wishful thinking.

8 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

We know that Targaryens marrying outside their bloodline don't necessarily have children that look Valyrian. I think that's the whole reason Rhaenys is even in the story. She's that reminder that she had a Valyrian father, but looked like her non-Valyrian mother. 

That's because her mother B genes (dark hair, dark eyes) are dominant to her father's recessive b genes (blue eyes, light hair).

Rhaenys presense in the story only proves, that real world laws of genetics, were used by GRRM in ASOIAF.

Quote

The talk about genetics is a headache and half.

And you absolutely missed their meaning.

6 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Robb's will is floating around out there somewhere as well. It may or may not mean anything to whoever the King/Queen may be but it will mean something to the Northern Lords.

Legally Robb's will won't be acknowledged. Also he was going to legitimize Jon, only after buying him out of Night's Watch, by exchanging him to 100 people. But he was killed before he did it.

6 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

The big issue with Joffrey, Tommen, & Myrcella is not necessarily that they all look like Lannisters as they are known to have a Lannister mother. The issue is that not only do all of Robert's bastards have black hair but every. single. Baratheon through out recorded history had black hair. That in & of it's self seems almost impossible & leads me to believe George did not concern himself with actual genetics.

You made a right observation about Baratheons brand look, though you made a wrong conclusion out of it.

Dark color (B) is dominant, light color (b) is recessive. All Baratheons were dark haired, thus all of them were carriers of BB genes. If some of them, at certain times married with other families that did had b genes, eventually those b genes were eliminated out of their family's gene pool, and only BB genes remained. Thus Robert can't have not a dark haired children. Doesn't matter who are mothers of those children, whether they are blonds, redheads, or brunetes, whether the are bb, Bb or BB. In any possible combination with Robert, their children will have dark hair:

Robert 1B2B + mother 3b4b = 1B3b or 2B4b - both dark, because in Bb pair of genes B is dominant.

Robert 1B2B + mother 3B4b = 1B3B or 2B4b - both dark.

Robert 1B2B + mother 3B4B = 1B3B or 2B4B - both dark.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, people, George doesn't give shit about genetics

Baratheons family looks, Targaryens brand looks, Lannisters, Rhaenys and Jon, are proves of the contrary.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Alyssa Velaryon took Robar Baratheon as a second husband, and their daughter Jocelyn Baratheon married her half-nephew, Prince Aemon, whose only child, Princess Rhaenys, had Valyrian hair and eyes.

"House Velaryon is of Valyrian descent, and its members often have Valyrian features, such as silver hair, purple eyes, and pale skin."

"Alyssa had the silvery hair and purple eyes of the Valyrians.^[2] "

Alyssa 1b2b + Robar 3B4B = 1b3B or 2b4B - both dark haired, Jocelyn and Boremund.

Jocelyn 1b2B + Aemon 3b4b = 1b3b or 2B4b - 50/50 % chances of them having blond child or dark haired child. Rhaenys was that first 50% - bb.

You only give more examples, that further prove that George is mindful of genetic laws.

More proofs (Guys, don't open this can of worms, if you're not interested in reading about genetics in ASOIAF):

Spoiler

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaenys, Laenor and Laena Velaryon, Baela and Rhaena Targaryen, and subsequently all descendants of Alyn Velaryon and Baela down to Monford and Monterys Velaryon, and the bastard Aurane Waters would have to have black Baratheon hair.

Why Rhaenys was blond - read above.

"Princess Rhaenys, was in turn wed to Lord Corlys, and gave birth to two children by him: Laena and Laenor, both of whom became dragonriders."

"Corlys Velaryon, known as the Sea Snake, was a fabled Lord of the Tides, Master of Driftmark, and head of House Velaryon.^[3] He was the husband of Princess Rhaenys Targaryen."

"Laenor had an aquiline nose, silver-white hair, and purple eyes."

"Laena was tall, slender, and surpassingly lovely with a great mane of silver-gold ringlets that fell down past her waist."

Rhaenys was bb, her husband, having Valyrian ancestry, most likely was also bb. Both of their children, Laenor and Laena, being blond and blue-eyed proves this. All four were bb.

"Lady Baela Targaryen was a daughter of Prince Daemon Targaryen and Lady Laena Velaryon.^[1] Her twin sister was Rhaena Targaryen."

Laena bb + Daemon bb = Baela bb and Rhaena bb.

(Daemon = Baelon Targaryen + Alyssa Targaryen

Baelon and Alyssa = Jaehaerys I + Alyssane Targaryen

Jaehaerys I and Alyssane = Aenys I Targaryen + Alyssa Velarion

Two generations prior Daemon were 100% Targaryens. His great grandfather was also a Targaryen, while his wife Alyssa was Valyrian.

"Alyssa had the silvery hair and purple eyes of the Valyrians.^[2]"

Thus Daemon was bb, there is no one, even four generations above him, from whom he could have inherited a B gene.)

Baela Targaeryn bb + Alyn Velaryon bb = bb descandants, all blond blue-eyed.

Alyssa was carrier of bb genes. Her first husband Aenys I Targaryen was carrier of bb genes. All thei children also were bb. When Alyssa married second time, to Robar Baratheon who was BB, both of their children Jocelyn and Boremund were Bb. One generation down, Alyssa's granddaughter Rhaenys, got from her parents bb set of genes, and B gene of Baratheons was removed from their genetic pool. Furthermore Laenor and Laena Velaryon, Baela and Rhaena Targaryen had nothing to do with Baratheons - they were descendants from Alyssa Velaryon's marriage with Aenys I Targaryen, not from her marriage with Robar Baratheon, and thus they weren't carriers of any B genes.

All descendants of Alyn Velaryon and Baela down to Monford and Monterys Velaryon, didn't had B genes.

 

To make it more understandable, in chronological order it went like this:

1. - Targ line, 2. - Baratheon genes.

1.1. Alyssa Velaryon + Aenys I Targaryen = Jaehaerys I and Alyssane Targaryen.

bb + bb = bb and bb

2.1. Alyssa Velaryon + Robar Baratheon = Jocelyn and Boremund.

bb + BB = Bb and Bb

1.2. Jaehaerys I Targaryen + Alyssane Targaryen = Baelon and Alyssa Targaryen.

bb + bb = bb and bb

2.2. Jocelyn + Aemon Targaryen = Rhaenys Targaryen. (Jocelyn was last carrier of Baratheon's B genes)

Bb + bb = bb (could have been 50% Bb and 50% bb, though they had only one child)

1.3. Baelon Targaryen + Alyssa Targaryen = Daemon Targaryen.

bb + bb = bb

2.3. Rhaenys Targaryen (not a carrier of B genes) + Corlys Velaryon = Laenor and Laena Velaryon.

bb + bb = bb and bb

1.4.

1.4.1. Daemon Targaryen + Laena Velaryon = Baela and Rhaena Targaryen.

bb + bb = bb and bb

1.4.2. Laenor Velaryon + Rhaenyra Targaryen = 3 sons.

bb + bb = 3 bb

1.4.3.1. Rhaenyra Targaryen + Daemon Targaeryn = Aegon III Targaryen.

bb + bb = bb

1.4.3.2. Aegon III Targaryen + Daenaera Velaryon = Elaena Targaryen.

bb + bb = bb

2.4.

2.4.1. Laenor Velaryon + Marilda of Hull = Adamm and Alyn Velaryon.

bb + (?) = bb and bb

2.4.3.2. Laenor Velaryon + Elaena Targaryen = Jon and Jayne Waters - bastards.

1.5. & 2.5. Baela Targaryen + Alyn Velaryon = House Velaryon.

bb + bb = bb

(Last carrier of B genes was in 2nd generation, thus members of House Velaryon had only bb genes of Targaryens and Velaryons).

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Why would Rhaegar want to help the man who had Lyanna's father and brother cruelly executed? Why is Rhaegar fighting a war against Lyanna's living brother(s)?

Because even though Aerys was crazy, he was still Rhaegar's father, and also he was his King.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if Rhaegar could command three Kingsguard to remain with Lyanna in the middle of nowhere and if he could take the remaining KG (save Jaime) with him to the Trident he could also have taken Lyanna with him to the Trident if he had felt she wasn't save at KL. He could also have dumped her at Maidenpool or Harrenhal where he had close friends in the Mootons and Whents, if he had no intention to endanger her life and the life of the unborn child by dragging her along in the army.

Rhaegar went back nearly by the end of rebellion, at that time Lyanna was 7+ months pregnant. Obviously that she wasn't in any condition to travel on horseback, and Tower of Joy was in the mountains of Dorne, so it was not likely that she could have traveled in carriage/wagon/cart. But even if the roads there were passable not only on foot, or on horseback, it was still too dangerous to travel for a pregnant woman even in a carriage. Because if it will break, or fall, then she will either be stuck in the mountains, or will fall in the ravine together with the carriage and horses.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But the point here is that it is ridiculous that Aerys would legitimize or acknowledge or accept or whatever any unborn child of Rhaegar's by Lyanna if he also had issues with Lyanna herself, leading to her staying at the tower. Not to mention the fact that this would be a ridiculous thing to ask or do.

The point is - he was crazy. Thus who knows what he could have done. Anything possible.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Just because Rhaegar and Lyanna may have had a child - and people might be willing to buy that story - doesn't mean people also have to believe Jon Snow is that child. Just as the fact that Rhaegar and Elia had a son named Aegon doesn't mean that this son Aegon did survive his own death at KL or that the youth Aegon Jon Connington has brought to Westeros in ADwD is Aegon Targaryen, the son of Rhaegar and Elia.

If people can doubt Connington's Aegon story - and some of them will - people sure as hell can and will doubt the Jon Snow Targaryen story. Even if they believe in the story that Lyanna and Rhaegar had a child. Especially in the wake of the Aegon story.

Jon Con himself isn't 100% sure, whether the boy is Rhaegar's son. The baby was given to him. He can't prove from where really Varys' people got it.

Howland Reed and Wylla were at TofJ, when Lyanna gave birth to Jon. So they at least know for sure, that Jon Snow is Lyanna's baby. And if word of minor lord and wet nurse, isn't enough, then if Ashara Dayne is alive, she can also testify, supporting claim that Jon Snow, that was brought by Ned Stark to Winterfell, is a legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, people most certainly will scrub their foreheads and ask themselves whether they are living in a poorly-written fan fiction - they are supposed to believe that they are two hidden Targaryens fathered by the same prince? One a prince they believed to be dead, and another they had no idea ever existed?

More likely people will believe in Jon's claim. Because EVERYONE in Westeros and beyond, know about why Robert's rebellion began. People know about Rhaegar taking Lyanna, and about Tourney at Harrenhall, where he crowned her as his Queen of Love and Beauty. But what people also know, is that both Rhaegar's children were killed, and their bodies were shown to Robert, and Tywin Lannister said that it is Rhaenys and Aegon. The point is - how could Young Griff and Jon Con prove, that that killed boy wasn't Aegon, son of Rhaegar? Only after it will be proved, that that baby was fake, people will wander then, where is the real one? Only then Jon Con and YG may start their election campain to support YG's claim.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if Aegon ends up being declared or denounced or revealed to be an impostor then all credibility the Jon Snow story could possibly hope to find among the people will go right down the toilet with Aegon. People are not stupid enough to go for the same narrative - and it is essentially the same narrative - twice.

People are fed up with wars of high lords. So they will welcome whoever can stop them for good, and bring peace to 7K. So Dany with her "Break The Wheel" campaign, could have won, though the fact that she's a daughter of Mad King, and also burned and fed to dragons living people, isn't in her favour.

6 hours ago, RhaegoTheUnborn said:

I also think Jon realizing that Faegon's eyes is a lighter shade of purple than Rhaegars were at a time of disagreement between the two is also quite telling. It's like it's his first time noticing that

I also thought that this part was suspicious. It is possible for a son to have lighter eyes than his father's. Though the fact that Jon had this thought under those circumstances, seems as thought he started to have doubts. Maybe he's beginning to realise that he was used as Varys' pawn, to help him raise believable pretender, that will be like Rhaegar (character and behaviour). Jon Con raised him as son of Rhaegar, same as Jon Snow was raised believing to be bastard of Ned. Could be that their situation are sort of opposite - Ned was lying to Jon, and Aegon/Varys' puppet was lying to Jon Con.

[maudisdottir]

I thought "all Baratheons have black hair" was from the show, and in the books it's "all Baratheons who were the product of a marriage WITH A LANNISTER have black hair". Am I not remembering that correctly?

[BalerionTheCat]

22 hours ago, Faera said:

While I don't think Jon being unveiled to be trueborn Targaryen would necessarily undermine his achievements, (an argument that is a little silly in my view because he is completely ignorant about his parentage so it makes no difference), it won't add anything to his character as far as Jon himself is concerned.

Not that I believe GRRM will go that way. But I feel Jon achieving something because it is know he is Rhaegar's son, legitimate or not, would diminish the power of his arc. Something like Targaryen's loyalist or Daenerys accepting his advice, order or leadership only because of his father.

22 hours ago, Faera said:

For Jon, I think it would be enough to finally learn who he is and where he came from.

Yes. My preferred choice. It becomes known (or not), by the end of the story, after everything else is said and done, that he is the son of Rhaegar, and the prince of some half-forgotten prophecy.

[maudisdottir]

I don't think any of the technicalities will matter, nor who sits on the IT, once Jon jumps on a dragon's back. Jon riding Rhaegal is all that people, including Dany, will need to acknowledge the truth about Jon's heritage. When ice zombies are on the march, not many people are going to care about whether some septon left written records of marriages taking place/being annulled.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

And you absolutely missed their meaning

I'm not missing their meaning. I just feel that applying real world genetics to a fantasy world is a headache. GRRM will do whatever he wants with genetics. Rhaegar had two children, Rhaenys who looked like her mother and Aegon who looked more Targaryen than Dornish. That's the whole reason Rhaenys exists. She looks like her mother, and Jon looks like his. 

One of the things that occurs is that people take one look at Jon and see that he looks like Ned, and so they are more than willing to accept things as they have been told. They have no reason to doubt him, Jon looks like him. No one looks beyond that. 

Quote

Catelyn had always thought Robb looked like her; like Bran and Rickon and Sansa, he had the Tully coloring, the auburn hair, the blue eyes. Yet now for the first time she saw something of Eddard Stark in his face, something as stern and as hard as the north.

This line might be pretty important in the grand scheme of things. Someone will eventually see beyond the Stark look. I think a character like Barristan Selmy who spent most of his life around Targaryens, knew Rhaegar since he was a baby was purposely kept away from Winterfell when Robert traveled there.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are wrong there. Aerys does not need Rhaegar. He may have wished to reconcile with his son - there must be a reason why he gave him command - but objectively the man didn't need his son. He had more than capable men to command his armies in his stead. If you think back to the Ninepenny Kings Prince Aerys accompanied the army to the Stepstones but command lay with Lord Ormund Baratheon, the Hand, and after his death with Ser Gerold Hightower, the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. The very same Ser Gerold could also have led the king's armies against Robert.

The way the "timeline" goes is they didn't know where Rhaegar was, then the Battle of the Bells happens and is lost, Aerys sends Ser Gerold to find find Rhaegar, and he returns to the Red Keep. He must have been looking for him for a reason, no?

I completely see your point about the Ninepenny Kings, but Aerys sacked Jon Conn and doesn't have a Hand that can lead his armies. Barristan Selmy might be a fine a choice, but if we go by Aerys's logic for choosing Jon Conn as Hand, then I would think that he wants someone who is young to be the leader of his armies. Hopefully Jaime will be able to shed some light on this. He would have been the only one present at the Red Keep. 

I hope Jaime will be able to shed some light on all of this. 

[Magnar of Skagos]

Wait, is this a real topic?

[Megorova]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that he wasn't able to keep Elia and his children safe indicates that things weren't that easy. He didn't leave any men of his own household - men he could trust - at the Red Keep to keep an eye on them.

Though he took with him three Kingsguards, to escort him and Lyanna during their journey from Harrenhall (close to which she was supposedly kidnapped) to Tower of Joy in Dorne.

Thus he cared about Lyanna's safety more than about Elia and her children. Which could be a prove of his believe that Lyanna will be mother of the PTWP.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Taking Lyanna to the Trident could also have helped to end the war. Lyanna could have tried to reach a settlement between the rebels and Rhaegar. Even if Robert had not been willing to listen, Ned might have. And that would have cost Robert a decent part of his army, perhaps even resulting in Hoster pulling his forces back, too.

There must be very good explanations as to why that didn't happen. And that would be connected to the nature of the relationship Rhaegar and Lyanna had at that point.

Which would be obvious to anyone, from one look at her fat pregnant belly.

It looks like you haven't had any experience spending at least 30 minutes in company of pregnant woman. Or else you wouldn't be saying ridiculous things, about heavily pregnant woman in medieval times, traveling thousands miles, thru mountains and battlefields.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that she indicates she was in love with Rhaegar on her deathbed doesn't mean she felt that way the entire time - she could only have realized (the depth) her true feelings when she learned of his death - nor does it mean that they got along or had the same political views the entire time.

It doesn't look like the two of them cared about politics. If that was so, then after taking Lyanna, Rhaegar would have went to King's Landing, deposed his father, and became King in his place. And Lyanna, if she cared about politics, wouldn't have escaped from her engagement with Robert Baratheon, who was King of Stormlands, and thus ditching him was a very bad diplomacy for Starks family.

6 hours ago, Faera said:

and actuality, no Targaryens are in the line of succession because they lost the throne to the Baratheons. The only way the Targs are getting it back is if they conquer it.

Or save it from Others' invasion from beyond The Wall.

6 hours ago, Faera said:

Much like how you could never prove for certain Tommen and Myrcella weren't Robert's no matter how many bastards you trotted out, you could never prove Rhaegar was Jon's true father no matter how many witnesses there might be to say so. In the end, it's all about what people believe is true.

Bran saw Cersei and Jaime. So there's at least one witness who can testify, that Cersei was in an incestual relationship with her brother. This added to what Ned and Jon Arryn found, could be enough to make people believe in Tommen's bastardy.

There's a reason why Joffrey ordered to his guards to go and kill all of Robert's bastards. Because they are a living proof, that all Robert's children supposed to have Baratheons dominant B genes. Thus if out of all Robert's children, from various looking mothers, only Cersei's children doesn't have Baratheons' brand looks, proves that they are not Baratheons.

5 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

I think most of the fandom (including myself) believe Aegon to be a fake and Jon's the real deal, but this isn't about us it's about Westeros and in a world where you can't go on Jeremy Kyle to prove your paternity people use looks instead.

Maybe that's the reason (one of reasons) why Cat hated Jon so much - looking at him, and her five children, people though that she's a cheater/adulteress, and her children are not Ned's.

5 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

But it's not just about looks Aegon has Jon Connington to vouch for him, he has an army, Elia's family is coming to meet him, he just conquered Storm's End etc. the fact of the matter is Aegon fits the role of the Targaryen prince who came back to reclaim his throne. 

Daemon II also had full castle of people supporting him, though we all know how it ended. And also fAegon's army are a sellswords. They are not a royal army, or loyalists, they are mercenaries that sell their skills for money. Most likely someone is financing them from behind the curtains (Varys? Blackfyres? Iron Bank? Good Masters?).

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If a king has a pregnant wife then such a child can be seen as the successor. Or not. But this isn't question we are discussing here. Without the royal family, the court, and the Realm knowing that Lyanna was a royal princess by marriage or pregnant with the son of a royal prince this is a moot question. If a lord or king has a secret wife or mistress who gives birth in the gutter the child won't be seen and recognized a prince, never mind the blood relations. Vice versa, a queen sleeping around - like Queen Rhaenys, the mother of Aenys I, Rhaenyra, and Cersei did - allows her to make her children the king's children, never mind who actually fathered them.

You said that unborn yet children can't have any claim, or be legitimised. And info that I posted, proved otherwise. Rhaegar could have asked his father to legitimise his unborn baby.

[Wm Portnoy]

11 minutes ago, Megorova said:

 

There is no way Aerys would legitimize any child of Lyanna Stark.  He just executed the grandfather and the uncle.  The other uncle is in rebellion.  Aerys wants to kill that baby.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

12 minutes ago, Megorova said:

And also fAegon's army are a sellswords.

They are the very best sellswords in the known world. The Golden Company puts all other sellswords companies to shame. They have Knights, archers, spear men and Elephants. They are also led by a man who is dead set on seeing his Prince on the Iron Throne before he dies. Most of their leaders are all progeny of Westerosi soldiers that fought in the Blackfyre Rebellions. To underestimate the Golden Company would be foolish and dangerous. They also could be on the verge of adding the spears of Dorne to their ranks. That should be around another 10,000 spears. Then they have the friends in the Reach which could be thousands to their cause as well. Other Reachmen are already fighting a war against Euron. 

[Pikachu101]

13 minutes ago, Megorova said:

people though that she's a cheater/adulteress, and her children are not Ned's.

No one thought that including Cat

16 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Daemon II also had full castle of people supporting him, though we all know how it ended.

In the eyes of Westeros Aegon wouldn't be the Blackfyre in this scenario though Jon would, which is ironic seeing as Jon's actually a Targaryen whilst Aegon's definitely a fake. 

19 minutes ago, Megorova said:

They are not a royal army, or loyalists, they are mercenaries that sell their skills for money.

Which is why Jon and Varys are mustering support from Westerosi lords beginning with Dorne, if Aegon can get his "mother's" family behind him it gives him legitimacy. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Legally Robb's will won't be acknowledged. Also he was going to legitimize Jon, only after buying him out of Night's Watch, by exchanging him to 100 people. But he was killed before he did it.

Right that's why I said it would matter to the Northern Lords. Robb died before he could get Jon out of the NW but if Jon gets out some other way it could still work. I don't think the Northern Lords will care how Jon gets out as long as it's not by desertion. 

 

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

(B) is dominant, light color (b) is recessive. All Baratheons were dark haired, thus all of them were carriers of BB genes. If some of them, at certain times married with other families that did had b genes, eventually those b genes were eliminated out of their family's gene pool, and only BB genes remained. Thus Robert can't have not a dark haired children. Doesn't matter who are mothers of those children, whether they are blonds, redheads, or brunetes, whether the are bb, Bb or BB. In any possible combination with Robert, their children will have dark hair:

It's not letting me quote everything I want to but I understand genetics well enough & the bolded part is not necessarily true. The Baratheon's could carry Bb genes & would still have dark hair. I wouldn't say it's impossible for every Baratheon to have dark hair IRL but it would mean they would almost have to all carry the BB gene which seems unlikely. It could happen I suppose but that would mean that they always passed down their dominant B to their child & eradicated the recessive b shortly after else it would eventually crop up somewhere. Like this:

Baratheon parents on left other on right. 

BB + bb (which any body with blonde hair would have) = Bb

Now Bb marries someone. Could be a BB = BB/Bb so 50% chance of the child carrying on the recessive gene

Or it could be a Bb = BB/Bb/Bb/bb so here we have a 75% chance the child will carry on the recessive gene & a 25% chance the child will be light haired

Or it could be a bb = Bb/bb here we have a 100% chance the child will carry on the recessive gene & a 50% chance the child will have light hair. 

As we go further the chance gets greater that a light haired child will pop up especially if they marry anyone with light hair. 

Of course this doesn't make it impossible just unlikely. 

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

23 minutes ago, Pikachu101 said:

In the eyes of Westeros Aegon wouldn't be the Blackfyre in this scenario though Jon would, which is ironic seeing as Jon's actually a Targaryen whilst Aegon's definitely a fake.

Jon wouldn't be a Blackfyre either seeing as he's not a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. He'd be a Targaryen bastard (possibly), but not a Blackfyre. 

Sorry, it's just one of those things that always bugs me.