Jon is not in the line of succession

[cpg2016]

On 12/8/2017 at 11:45 AM, ChuckPunch said:

High Sparrow seizes power from the crown when he abducts Cersei and Marge. The Crown and Lords concerned can do nothing while the High Sparrow holds his own trial at his own pace, holding two Queens hostage. He is indeed granted permission for the Swords and Stars, but now that they are in power can anyone effectively remove their legitimacy? Is this "legal"? Certainly this depends on who you ask.

Actually, this is wrong.  Cersei legitimizes the High Sparrow's arrest by having Osney "confess" to him; and the Faith has long had a judicial arm attached to it.  The Crown and the Lords supporting it most definitely can do something about this, but political exigencies force them not to.  Don't take your assumptions to be facts; people on these boards know more than you.

"We have foes on every hand, Lord Tarly," Ser Kevan reminded him. "Stannis in the north, ironmen in the west, sellswords in the south. Defy the High Septon, and we will have blood running in the gutters of King's Landing as well. If we are seen to be going against the gods, it will only drive the pious into the arms of one or the other of these would-be usurpers."

Nowhere does Kevan say they "cannot" defy the High Septon, only that to do so would put a precarious political position in even further doubt.

On 12/8/2017 at 11:45 AM, ChuckPunch said:

With Cersei I was thinking of her abuse of power in Feast, appointing whoever she wants for positions in her circle. She up-jumps several people and while this isn't strictly "illegal" their powers come from her directly, and her alone. If Cersei were to lose power (in a more permanent fashion) her entourage would dissolve swiftly. 

Once again, you are factually incorrect.  Cersei appoints no one; technically it is Tommen that makes all these appointments.  She is obviously making him, but it's an important political point.  Moreover, as Regent, she has real, formal power.  The reason her circle is her circle is precisely because she has the power to appoint them.  And you're point about the dissolution of her Small Council of lickspittles is entirely correct - it would be equally correct to say it about ANY group of advisers on a transition of power.

On 12/8/2017 at 11:45 AM, ChuckPunch said:

Aerys is only killed because he had an extensive history of being loony, not because of the legality of his final actions. Robert's uprising was more personal regarding Lyanna and Jon's defiance was personal as well with not wanting to release his wards.

Uh, no.  Aerys is killed because he extra-legally kills Brandon Stark, and straight up murders Rickard, who has done nothing wrong at all.  And then demands Robert and Ned's heads for no reason at all, either.  Both of them, and Jon Arryn, only rebel after Aerys calls for their heads, and not on news of Lyanna's abduction.  Try again.

Aerys is deposed because he makes it clear in his final years that even high lords are not safe from the Throne acting illegally.  Yes, he was mad before then, but not in a way that was immediately threatening to the feudal order.  Honestly, one of the major examples of GRRM's few worldbuilding failures is that anyone fights for Aerys.

On 12/8/2017 at 11:45 AM, ChuckPunch said:

Roose wants the legal title, sure, but he breaks guest rite and allows his bastard to illegally claim lands that they had no right to seize. He lies to his liege and performs treason. He marries Ramsay into the Starks to solidify his descendants, but only because Winter is coming and he will need to keep his vassals in check. Thats pragmatic, not law-abiding for its own sake. 

Ramsay's attempt to claim the Hornwood lands is widely contested and seen as illegitimate.  Again, the existence of criminals does not mean the law doesn't exist.

And yes, Roose performs a treasonous act - for which he is universally despised by the entire North.  That he has the backing of the Iron Throne and possesses Winterfell, in addition to hostages from most Houses, keeps him in power - but even he knows he's dying and his line will likely be wiped out for his transgressions.  And the point about Ramsay is that he cannot take Winterfell, nor the North in general, without the patina of traditional legitimacy a Stark provides, a point he makes explicitly.

On 12/8/2017 at 11:45 AM, ChuckPunch said:

Also, with Roose you must remember he still claims the Rite of First Night, murdering one of his own subjects and raping his wife when they do not obey him. That's in direct opposition to the King's law and the laws of the North. 

Um... Roose is a criminal.  Doesn't it seem telling that the ONLY characters you can find acting in this manner are the handful of evil, insane, or just straight criminal characters in the entire series?  One Northern Lord and his bastard, and one Queen Regent, and all of a sudden "might makes right" is the only law of the land?  Don't be silly.  The vast preponderance of Westeros clearly is bound quite strongly by tradition and precedent, and failing that, the law.  Even the Night's Watch mutineers try and couch their treason in legal language.  The very convolutions people like Roose and Cersei go through to normalize their seizures of power is proof positive that laws are considered important.

[Ser Leftwich]

The most likely version of the conversation at the ToJ, via the logic of this OP:

Rhaegar: Guards, make sure Lyanna doesn't leave this tower until I come and get her.

Dayne: Not to leave the tower... even if you come and get her.

Hightower: [hiccups]

Rhaegar: No, no. *Until* I come and get her.

Dayne: Until you come and get her, we're not to enter the tower.

Rhaegar: No, no, no. You *stay* in the tower, and make sure *she* doesn't leave.

Dayne: And you'll come and get her.

Hightower: [hiccups]

Rhaegar: Right.

Dayne: We don't need to do anything, apart from just stop her entering the tower.

Rhaegar: No, no. *Leaving* the tower.

Dayne: Leaving the tower, yes.

Rhaegar: All right?

Hightower: [hiccups]

Dayne: Right. Oh, if, if, if, uh, if, if, uh, if, if, if, we... oh, if... oh...

Rhaegar: Look, it's quite simple. You just stay here, and make sure she doesn't leave the tower. All right?

Hightower: [hiccups]

Dayne: Oh, I remember, uh, can she leave the tower with us?

Rhaegar: No, no, no, no, you just keep her in here, and make sure...

Dayne: Oh yeah, we'll keep her in here, obviously, but if she had to leave, and we were with her...

Rhaegar: No, just keep her in here...

Dayne: Until you, or anyone else...

Rhaegar: No, not anyone else. Just me.

Dayne: Just you.

Hightower: [hiccups]

Rhaegar: Get back.

Dayne: Get back.

Rhaegar: All right?

Dayne: Right, we'll stay here until you get back.

Rhaegar: And make sure she doesn't leave.

Dayne: What?

Rhaegar: Make sure she doesn't leave.

Dayne: Lyanna?

Rhaegar: Yes, make sure she doesn't leave.

Dayne: Oh, yes, of course.

[Points at Hightower]

Dayne: I thought you meant him. You know, it seemed a bit daft me I were to guard him when he's a guard.

Rhaegar: Is that clear?

Hightower: [hiccups]

Dayne: Oh, quite clear. No problems.

Rhaegar: Right.

[Rhaegar turns to leave the tower, both guards follow him]

Rhaegar: Where are you going?

Dayne: We're coming with you.

Rhaegar: No, no, no. I want you to stay here and make sure *she* doesn't leave.

Dayne: Oh, I see. Right.

[Light a wight tonight]

The true heir to the Iron Throne is Mance  Rayder Rhaegar, who is still alive, if not for long. If he's Ramsay's captive and is killed the crown would then go to his son by Dalla, Aemon Steelsong, who went south with Sam and Gilly. (Dany loses out 'cause she's a girl, and male heirs take precedence.)

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 12/6/2017 at 11:02 PM, Damsel in Distress said:

Rhaegar can't pull a miracle.  Only Aerys could grant an annulment and it would not make any sense for Aerys to do so.  Jon was born a bastard and Jon remains a bastard. 

 

 

I agree