Noble Lothar Frey

Jon is not in the line of succession

400 posts in this topic

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aside from that - which seems completely unlikely that this point -, Jon's support of Aegon is infinitely more valuable than anything any person might ever say about Jon Snow. Aegon looks the part. Jon Snow does not. Nobody would ever want to believe a man looking like a Stark is actually a Targaryen.

:agree:

Why do you think it worried Cat that from all of Ned’s sons only Jon looked like him? Why did Littlefinger tell Sansa to dye her hair? How did Stannis know Cersei’s children weren’t Robert’s? Genetics matter, and like you said silver haired Aegon is a lot more believable Targaryen prince than dark haired Jon. 

That being said I’ve been told this is a thread about if Jon has a claim, not can Jon prove he has a claim. 

My answer, Jon doesn’t have a claim because until told otherwise I don’t buy Rhaegar marrying Lyanna or legitimising their son. Both scenarios endanger Aegon’s inheritance, and Rhaegar wouldn’t do that to his PTWP. Jon the bastard can still be the third head, but this way no one can see him as an alternative to his trueborn brother. 

Edited by Pikachu101

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6 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

That being said I’ve been told this is a thread about if Jon has a claim, not can Jon prove he has a claim. 

Those things are intricately connected.

Take Tommen and Myrcella as examples. They technically don't have a claim to the Iron Throne yet while a sufficient number of people still (publicly) believe they are the trueborn children of King Robert Baratheon they are not put down as the abominations born of incest and adultery they actually are.

Jon Snow the bastard of Eddard Stark has no claim to the Iron Throne. He has at best some weak claim to Winterfell (assuming we ignore the Night's Watch thing for a moment).

And that's the state of affairs right now. Jon Snow is the bastard of Eddard Stark. He has no claim to the Iron Throne.

If nobody ended up believing the Targaryen story Jon would never have a claim to the Iron Throne.

The exact nature of Jon's parentage is irrelevant for the question of a claim - even a Targaryen bastard would have some claim to the Iron Throne. Just a very weak claim in comparison to trueborn Targaryens or legitimized Targaryen bastards (take the bastard Benedict Rivers-Justman as an example - he was never legitimized by anyone yet still became the King of the Riverlands). If people believed Jon was Rhaegar's bastard they could also believe he should be king (especially if there were no other suitable claimants around at the the time).

But his looks should make it very difficult for quite a few people to buy that story. And that's why they are important. Even more so, in light of the Aegon story. People would have to be utter fools to first fall for the Aegon story - which they most likely will - and then buy the Jon Snow story (which is going to sound even more ridiculous than the Aegon story, and is going to be much harder to believe).

Edited by Lord Varys

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4 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

:agree:

Why do you think it worried Cat that from all of Ned’s sons only Jon looked like him? Why did Littlefinger tell Sansa to dye her hair? How did Stannis know Cersei’s children weren’t Robert’s? Genetics matter, and like you said silver haired Aegon is a lot more believable Targaryen prince than dark haired Jon. 

That being said I’ve been told this is a thread about if Jon has a claim, not can Jon prove he has a claim. 

My answer, Jon doesn’t have a claim because until told otherwise I don’t buy Rhaegar marrying Lyanna or legitimising their son. Both scenarios endanger Aegon’s inheritance, and Rhaegar wouldn’t do that to his PTWP. Jon the bastard can still be the third head, but this way no one can see him as an alternative to his trueborn brother. 

Or at that point Rhaegar didn't believe Aegon was the PTWP.

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@Lord Varys perfectly said! 

As for people not believing Aegon I think it will come down to wanting to believe he’s the real deal, Doran seems to be hopeful he’s Elia’s son despite his doubts. 

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15 minutes ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

Or at that point Rhaegar didn't believe Aegon was the PTWP.

Rhaegar wouldn’t assume an unborn baby is the PTWP, (especially if you think he was expecting a girl) what he wanted from Lyanna was Aegon’s third head. Everything he did revolved around this belief that Aegon would save the realm from the Others, when you’re that invested you don’t suddenly change your mind in less than a year. 

Edited by Pikachu101

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10 minutes ago, Pikachu101 said:

Rhaegar wouldn’t assume an unborn baby is the PTWP, (especially if you think he was expecting a girl) what he wanted from Lyanna was Aegon’s third head. Everything he did revolved around this belief that Aegon would save the realm from the Others, when you’re that invested you don’t suddenly change your mind in less than a year. 

We don't know if Rhaegar thought he was expecting a girl or a boy, unless I missed something. Rhaegar very easily could have changed his mind about Aegon being the PTWP in less then year. How soon did Rhaegar change his mind about himself being the PTWP, after Aegon was born? 

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1 hour ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

We don't know if Rhaegar thought he was expecting a girl or a boy,

That’s why I said if you theorise Rhaegar wanted a girl, it’s actualy a popular theory which I only started having my doubts recently. Besides Rhaegar had no way of knowing if Jon would be a boy or not, it makes no sense to decide your son isn’t the PTWP when Lyanna could very much give birth to a girl. 

1 hour ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

Rhaegar very easily could have changed his mind about Aegon being the PTWP in less then year. How soon did Rhaegar change his mind about himself being the PTWP, after Aegon was born? 

There’s no evidence Rhaegar suspected an unborn baby of being the PTWP, he didn’t think it would be Aegon until he was born so why would Jon be any different? It’s pretty obvious Jon is Azor Ahai but that doesn’t mean Rhaegar thought he was. 

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On 11/20/2017 at 11:34 AM, Widow's Watch said:

No, he's not. 

He has likely entered Ghost who has been directly associated to the old gods. There's a massive ice structure woven with old magics and spells, and there's a fire priestess whose magic is made powerful by the magic of the Wall, just waiting for when Jon needs her. This is going to be Jon's own magical moment.

We should discuss this again when Winds of Winter comes out in a bagillion years.

For Jon to come back from death as anything other than a wight is wishful thinking on the part of his fans.  Getting wighted is the way back from death and it is a temporary one.  

On 11/20/2017 at 11:46 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I agree but does Robb naming him his heir legitimize him as well? I can't remember if Robb specifically said he was legitimazing him also. At any rate I would think so as he believes Jon is the only chance to carry on the Stark name. 

I disagree with the only way Jon is coming back is as a wight. First & foremost there are no others this side of the wall to wightify him. It would make more sense for him to stay dead than to return as a mindless wight only to be killed again. If Jon is dead & doesn't remain that way I think he will be resurrected via Mel, LSH, or Thoros breathing the fire of life into him. Not to say he may not lose some of his self like Beric or much of his self like LSH. 

Robb was not a true king.  He was trying to break free from the kingdom but he failed; therefore, he was just a hopeful.  He never had the authority to remove Jon's bastard status.  But for the sake of argument, let us say that he was the king in the newly independent north.  Okay, so he removes Jon's bastard status.  That will only hold in the independent kingdom of the north.  The IKotN.  Robb's laws do not hold any legal power outside of his new IKotN.  

I don't want Jon to come back at all but I am almost sure that he will come back.  As a wight.  It's cheap and it's cheating to bring him back fully human.  That would destroy the finality of death in the story.  The analogy with Gandalf has been mentioned already, so there is that.  Coming back as a wightified zombie like Stoneheart is a fitting fate for Jon.  

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1 hour ago, Tygett Lannister said:

wow nice articles we get to know really a lot about the stabs.

Because Jon's stabs were so clear and descriptive.

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3 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Robb was not a true king.  He was trying to break free from the kingdom but he failed; therefore, he was just a hopeful.  He never had the authority to remove Jon's bastard status.  But for the sake of argument, let us say that he was the king in the newly independent north.  Okay, so he removes Jon's bastard status.  That will only hold in the independent kingdom of the north.  The IKotN.  Robb's laws do not hold any legal power outside of his new IKotN.  

Robb was a king to the northmen. So they would follow his laws. That's all I was saying. 

 

3 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

I don't want Jon to come back at all but I am almost sure that he will come back.  As a wight.  It's cheap and it's cheating to bring him back fully human.  That would destroy the finality of death in the story.  The analogy with Gandalf has been mentioned already, so there is that.  Coming back as a wightified zombie like Stoneheart is a fitting fate for Jon.  

Well Cat isn't wightified with the meaning I'm attributing to it. The Others make wights. Cat was brought back by the Red God. Cat is the way she is because of the length of time she was dead. It could certainly happen to Jon if he is dead a while however we don't know if the cold preserves him in any way & Cat didn't have a Ghost to warg into to "stay alive" while she was dead so I could see him coming back changed in different ways than Cat. Even if he comes back just like Cat I wouldn't  consider him a wight - I thought you were talking about what the Others are doing to the dead. As long as Jon comes back affected by his death I don't think there is any contradiction with what GRRM said about Gandalf. 

 

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10 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Genetics matter, and like you said silver haired Aegon is a lot more believable Targaryen prince than dark haired Jon. 

Baelor (Breakspear) Targaryen had dark hair. His son Valarr had brown hair, with a streak of silver-gold running through it. Prince Daeron (Egg's brother) had sandy brown hair and a blonde beard. 

Not all Targaryens had blond/white/platinum/silver hair.

Lyanna had brown hair and grey eyes. Rhaegar had silver blond hair and deep purple or indigo colored eyes. So there was 50% possibility that their child will have brown hair, and grey eyes. Possibility that he will have blond hair and purple/indigo/blue eyes were only 25%.

Aegon Martell's mother and sister both had black hair. Little Aegon had fair hair.

Though white newborn babies often have fair/light colored hair, and light blue eyes. Gradually it changes to their real color, after they are 6+ months old.

Darker colors are dominant in genetic coloring.

Real Aegon Martell couldn't be blond, or have a lightly colored hair. His mother had black hair. Thus Young Griff is a fake. Unless GRRM ignored laws of genetics.

6 hours ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

Or at that point Rhaegar didn't believe Aegon was the PTWP.

:agree:

First he thought that he was the promised Prince. Then he thought that it was Elia's baby. And then he went past Elia, and crowned Lyanna as Queen of Love and Beauty. So maybe he thought that Aegon Martell is not The Chosen One, and that it will be Lyanna's baby.

6 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Rhaegar wouldn’t assume an unborn baby is the PTWP, (especially if you think he was expecting a girl) what he wanted from Lyanna was Aegon’s third head. Everything he did revolved around this belief that Aegon would save the realm from the Others, when you’re that invested you don’t suddenly change your mind in less than a year

Unless something happened, that made him change his mind. Maybe he had a revelation, or saw a sign, or found new information about the prophecy, or he found out that Elia's children aren't his.

4 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

That’s why I said if you theorise Rhaegar wanted a girl, it’s actualy a popular theory which I only started having my doubts recently.

That theory is absolutely groundless.

Remind me, please, what was the basis for it?

4 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Besides Rhaegar had no way of knowing if Jon would be a boy or not, it makes no sense to decide your son isn’t the PTWP when Lyanna could very much give birth to a girl. 

Maybe he realised that Aegon Martell is not the PTWP. And this realisation he had even prior he met Lyanna for the first time. So actually it is totally unrelevant, whether he was expecting to be born, a girl or a boy.

4 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

It’s pretty obvious Jon is Azor Ahai but that doesn’t mean Rhaegar thought he was. 

Could be that GRRM trolled us all, and the books will continue like this:

Jon will die, though his soul will warg into Ghost's body. And for the rest of the story he will stay in that state. Aegon Martell is really the PTWP, and he will defeat the Others, and marry with Dany.

3 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

For Jon to come back from death as anything other than a wight is wishful thinking on the part of his fans.  Getting wighted is the way back from death and it is a temporary one.  

There could be another way - if his soul will warg into Ghost, and then he will be revived by servant of Many-Faced God (Patchface), and pristess of Lord of Light (Melisandre). He won't be a wight. Melisandre will give life to his body, and Patchface will return his soul into it.

Edited by Megorova

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6 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

@Lord Varys perfectly said! 

As for people not believing Aegon I think it will come down to wanting to believe he’s the real deal, Doran seems to be hopeful he’s Elia’s son despite his doubts. 

Doran and Arianne might actually doubt he is the real deal. But publicly they will have to support him anyway, or risk falling of the Targaryen loyalist bandwagon. Even more so when they learn about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr (which makes it very unlikely she has the intention of coming to Westeros) and her subsequent disappearance/death (which makes the Quentyn plan impossible). Not to mention their reaction to the news about Quentyn's death.

The Targaryen loyalists will show their true colors after Aegon declares himself at Storm's End. And I'm reasonably confident that half the Realm or more will declare for him, throughout all the different regions (most of them in the Crownlands, the Reach, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands - but one could see some Targaryen loyalists in the West, the Vale, and even the North). People want to believe that beloved Rhaegar's little son did not die. Especially when they so desperately in need of a true king as they are right now.

If the Martells decided to stay at home yet again they would really have no purpose in this story whatsoever.

26 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Real Aegon Martell couldn't be blond, or have a lightly colored hair. His mother had black hair. Thus Young Griff is a fake. Unless GRRM ignored laws of genetics.

George doesn't care about real word genetics.

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55 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Baelor (Breakspear) Targaryen had dark hair. His son Valarr had brown hair, with a streak of silver-gold running through it. Prince Daeron (Egg's brother) had sandy brown hair and a blonde beard. 

Not all Targaryens had blond/white/platinum/silver hair.

Baelor didn't have to prove he's a Targaryen. Yes not all Targs have silver hair but guess what; when two men come forward (that's if Jon even does which I doubt) saying they're Rhaegar's son the one with Targ features is a lot more believable than the one who looks 100% Stark.

55 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Real Aegon Martell couldn't be blond, or have a lightly colored hair. His mother had black hair. Thus Young Griff is a fake. Unless GRRM ignored laws of genetics.

In asoiaf wiki it says Aegon takes after his father, just like Tyene is blonde haired and blue eyed despite Oberyn having dark features. Also I think it's been clear since book 1 that George doesn't give a damn about the laws of genetics. 

55 minutes ago, Megorova said:

First he thought that he was the promised Prince. Then he thought that it was Elia's baby. And then he went past Elia, and crowned Lyanna as Queen of Love and Beauty.

He crowned Lyanna before Aegon was born. 

 

 

Edited by Pikachu101

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46 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Real Aegon Martell couldn't be blond, or have a lightly colored hair. His mother had black hair. Thus Young Griff is a fake. Unless GRRM ignored laws of genetics.

You've already used the example of Baelor Breakspear, who looked Dornish, and his son who looked slightly less Dornish. Yet Baelor's brother Maekar, who was also half-Dornish, had the Targaryen looks and passed them on to some of his children.

So yes, George is ignoring real world genetics because he can.

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17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

but one could see some Targaryen loyalists in the West, the Vale, and even the North

Not sure about the West, the Lannisters are still in control and if the Reach doesn't rebel I don't think they would. As for the Vale and North I can see that happening if George intends to do a parallel between Aegon/Sansa and Henry/Elizabeth. 

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11 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

My answer, Jon doesn’t have a claim because until told otherwise I don’t buy Rhaegar marrying Lyanna or legitimising their son. Both scenarios endanger Aegon’s inheritance, and Rhaegar wouldn’t do that to his PTWP. Jon the bastard can still be the third head, but this way no one can see him as an alternative to his trueborn brother. 

If he was so convinced Aegon was the PTWP and Lyanna's baby would be a girl, then he could have legitimized Lyanna. However, given the folly of his actions, and the risks he took, I would believe he knew, somehow, Aegon was not the PTWP.

BTW, I believe the main point is Jon doesn't need to be legitimate or to have a claim to the IT to be the man of the prophecy. The deeds and what "powers" the gods gave him, count more than the birthright.

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1 minute ago, Pikachu101 said:

Not sure about the West, the Lannisters are still in control and if the Reach doesn't rebel I don't think they would. As for the Vale and North I can see that happening if George intends to do a parallel between Aegon/Sansa and Henry/Elizabeth. 

The Plumms live in the West, and AFfC just introduced the Westerosi branch of the family. They go back to Princess Elaena Targaryen (and Aegon IV himself, if the stories are true, making the present Plumms descendants of an illegitimate branch of House Targaryen) and could remember that.

Harwyn 'Hardstone' Plumm is in an ideal position to take possession of Castle Darry and put down the Freys there - if he chose to discover his Targaryen loyalty. 

I expect Aegon causing a similar scenario as the Dance supposedly was - neighbors fighting neighbors, brothers and fathers and sons fighting each other. It is not unlikely that various houses all across the Realm chose different kings than their neighbors and/or nominal liege lords.

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Those things are intricately connected.

Take Tommen and Myrcella as examples. They technically don't have a claim to the Iron Throne yet while a sufficient number of people still (publicly) believe they are the trueborn children of King Robert Baratheon they are not put down as the abominations born of incest and adultery they actually are.

Jon Snow the bastard of Eddard Stark has no claim to the Iron Throne. He has at best some weak claim to Winterfell (assuming we ignore the Night's Watch thing for a moment).

And that's the state of affairs right now. Jon Snow is the bastard of Eddard Stark. He has no claim to the Iron Throne.

If nobody ended up believing the Targaryen story Jon would never have a claim to the Iron Throne.

The exact nature of Jon's parentage is irrelevant for the question of a claim - even a Targaryen bastard would have some claim to the Iron Throne. Just a very weak claim in comparison to trueborn Targaryens or legitimized Targaryen bastards (take the bastard Benedict Rivers-Justman as an example - he was never legitimized by anyone yet still became the King of the Riverlands). If people believed Jon was Rhaegar's bastard they could also believe he should be king (especially if there were no other suitable claimants around at the the time).

But his looks should make it very difficult for quite a few people to buy that story. And that's why they are important. Even more so, in light of the Aegon story. People would have to be utter fools to first fall for the Aegon story - which they most likely will - and then buy the Jon Snow story (which is going to sound even more ridiculous than the Aegon story, and is going to be much harder to believe).

 

Rhaenys looked like Elia yet no one suspected she wasn't Rhaegar's daughter. The story throughout the realm is Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar and raped by him. Even Bran tells this story despite the fact Ned doesn't talk about his dead family members at all.

So, if someone comes and declares Jon, who so much looks like a Stark is not the son of the honorable lord Eddard but is the son of his sister Lyanna, who also looks Stark and was kidnapped and raped by Rhaegar and Ned hid Jon under cover as his bastard, well I think there wouldn't be many that won't believe the story with Eddard's reputation of being honorable and Robert's reputation of enjoying the sight of dead Targaryen babies.

 

Edited by Corvo the Crow

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23 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Rhaenys looked like Elia yet no one suspected she wasn't Rhaegar's daughter.

Rhaenys was acknowledged as Rhaegar's daughter both by Rhaegar himself and Queen Rhaella (and, in a sense, even by King Aerys II). No child of Rhaegar and Lyanna was ever recognized as such by Rhaegar or another member of House Targaryen.

Without that, Jon Snow simply isn't a Targaryen. Even if 'the true story' gets out people are free to buy or dismiss it. But when you are publicly raised as the son or grandson of a king the people don't have that choice. They can't say the royal prince isn't the royal prince. But nobody can force them to believe some bastard is a royal prince (or even the child of a royal prince).

23 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

So, if someone comes and declares Jon, who so much looks like a Stark is not the son of the honorable lord Eddard but is the son of his sister Lyanna, who also looks Stark and was kidnapped and raped by Rhaegar and Ned hid Jon under cover as his bastard, well I think there wouldn't be many that won't believe the story with Eddard's reputation of being honorable and Robert's reputation of enjoying the sight of dead Targaryen babies.

The honorable Eddard Stark acknowledged Jon Snow as his bastard son. That is a fact. And the honorable Eddard Stark is dead. He cannot take back or correct the lie he told all those years ago and lived the remainder of his life.

Eddard Stark had a reputation of honesty and honor throughout the Realm. The people who likely know the truth about Jon Snow are either disreputable people (the bog-devil Howland Reed), commoners (the woman Wylla), or too unimportant to have been properly introduced at this point (some Daynes).

None of those people should have the moral authority and gravitas to actually change the tale Eddard Stark told all those years ago. 

But even if some people were willing to listen - there is a difference between what people actually believe in private and what people publicly believe in the political arena. As Olenna makes pretty clear, the Tyrells don't really buy the story that Cersei's children are Robert's seed. But it is politically convenient for them to pretend that they believe that they are Robert's children. At least for now.

What on earth could trigger a significant portion of the people of Westeros to see any advantage in believing that Jon Snow is not Eddard Stark's bastard but Rhaegar Targaryen's son by Lyanna Stark?

It is very hard to come up with a scenario in which anyone would want to believe that - or see an advantage in publicly declaring that he or she believes that.

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