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What got people killed. What will get people killed.


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I have read Annalee's article on why she believe all of the main characters will die and decided to write my own thoughts on the topic.  In my opinion, people get killed when they go beyond the limits of their environment.  Call it the breaking point, tipping point, point of no return, boundaries, tolerance.  I think it is when these people go beyond that tolerance that they get killed. 

1.  King Viserys - The Dothraki tolerated him because he was the brother of their new khaleesi but he went beyond what their customs could tolerate when he threatened Dany and the Stallion within the boundaries of Vaes Dothrak.

2.  King Aerys II - He pushed too far with Jon Arryn and it led to the rebellion.  He should have stopped at the execution of Brandon and Rickard.  Eddard and Robert should have been taken care of discreetly.

3.  Robb - He alienated a key ally in Karstark.  He might have survived this but he also betrayed his most powerful supporter.

4.  Jon - He was pushing his NW brothers to accept a new way of dealing with the wildlings and he would have been fine had he stopped there.  His efforts to steal Arya away from Ramsay was too much and it got him executed.

The limit is different for everyone.  King Aerys had the widest tolerance of any of the examples.  Let us use the analogy of a boat to represent the environment.  Aerys had three centuries of family dynasty, he was a king in every way that is legal, the realm was in a state of prosperity, he surrounded himself with capable and loyal people.  His boat was solid, his crew was loyal, and the other passengers don't want to rock the boat when the times are good and plenty.   Contrast this to Robb who was already skating on thin ice when he rebelled against the crown.  Dumping on two important crew got Robb thrown off the boat and fed to the sharks.

That escalating bad decisions that increasingly rock the boat is what get people killed.  Petyr Baelish has so far known how to stay within the limits.  It will be interesting to see if the Freys and the Boltons have exceeded the tolerance of their environment and what consequences may result to them.  I don't think all of the main characters will die but we can get a clue as to which ones will die based on how much or how little they start to rock the boat in Winds.  Just remember that some can rock their boat a lot and get away with it because each boat and crew are different.  Perhaps it is knowing how much you can rock your boat that is the mark of intelligence. 

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4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

 

3.  Robb - He alienated a key ally in Karstark.  He might have survived this but he also betrayed his most powerful supporter.

 

Robb did nothing wrong regarding the Karstarks. Rickard couldn't handle the realities of war and murdered innocent (and valuable) children. He deserved what he got. 

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4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

 

That escalating bad decisions that increasingly rock the boat is what get people killed.  Petyr Baelish has so far known how to stay within the limits.  It will be interesting to see if the Freys and the Boltons have exceeded the tolerance of their environment and what consequences may result to them.  I don't think all of the main characters will die but we can get a clue as to which ones will die based on how much or how little they start to rock the boat in Winds.  Just remember that some can rock their boat a lot and get away with it because each boat and crew are different.  Perhaps it is knowing how much you can rock your boat that is the mark of intelligence. 

Petyr is actually hanging way out on a flimsy branch.  He will exceed his limits and get himself caught for the murder of Lysa and the attempted murder of Sweetrobin.  I don't want any consequences against the Freys though.  I like old Walder and I don't care for Robb and the Starks.  Roose knows how to play and I don't think he will get caught beyond his limits.  

29 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

A Malcolm Gladwell fan are we?   

So where do you see Ned?  When did it all start going downhill for him?  He should make this club.

Things started going south for Ned when he went South.  And he had the benefit of a warning in the form of the dead direwolf.  He started making bad decisions when he chose to handle the Mountain on his own.  He should have brought the matter to Robert.  I say he could have told Catelyn to release Tyrion.  

27 minutes ago, ChuckPunch said:

Robb did nothing wrong regarding the Karstarks. Rickard couldn't handle the realities of war and murdered innocent (and valuable) children. He deserved what he got. 

We could get into a long debate whether Karstark deserved his punishment.  It's still not a good move politically to kill him.  

Karstark let his emotions get the better of him.  I will say he started to put his family ahead of the war campaign.  That's not good.  The war campaign comes first.  Catelyn did the same as Karstark when she released Jaime.  Put family ahead of the war.  But  if we really want to start pointing fingers then the biggest blame has to be pointed at Robb.  He let his hormones get ahead of his concern for his bannermen and allies.  

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10 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Petyr Baelish has so far known how to stay within the limits

Well, no he hasn't. Baelish has gone beyond any limits, other than what Tywin Lannister or his mad dogs would do. The only thing keeping Littlefinger alive is that nobody knows.

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5 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Things started going south for Ned when he went South.  And he had the benefit of a warning in the form of the dead direwolf.  He started making bad decisions when he chose to handle the Mountain on his own.  He should have brought the matter to Robert.  I say he could have told Catelyn to release Tyrion.  

Indeed! Catelyn read the sign of the dead direwolf and stag correctly. But she also warned him of his responsibility; Ned really, really didn't want to do a Hand job for Robert (har) and have to leave Winterfell. Ned had another chance to get out of it when Bran fell; he could have claimed his family responsibilities had to take precedence.

On the other "hand", if Ned had waited for Robert to eventually return from his hunt, which could have taken weeks, all that killing and devastation would have continued in the Riverlands. That wasn't Ned's way. And as we now know, Robert died shortly after his return from the hunt, anyway.

Ordering Tyrion's release might have been a good idea, but Ned had no way to get a message to Catelyn. She was on the road, and nobody who wasn't with her knew where she was, or where she was going. Moreover, just and decent Ned might have assumed that an inquiry and trial would either clear or condemn Tyrion, and there was no reason not to let the wheels of justice turn. He had no idea that his sister in law was barking mad; even Catelyn was horrified to see what Lysa had degenerated into.

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1 hour ago, zandru said:

Well, no he hasn't. Baelish has gone beyond any limits, other than what Tywin Lannister or his mad dogs would do. The only thing keeping Littlefinger alive is that nobody knows.

I think we have to take the statement in the larger sense that Little Finger is on a big fat solid aircraft carrier type boat.  He's got spies and "friends" everywhere.   He is a very wealthy man.  He is a powerful lord of the Riverlands as well as whatever the hell his title is at the Vale.  His plan hinges on as you say, nobody knows.  Thus far I count 3 paid monkeys and a young girl he likes to brag to.    Not very smart for the way he normally operates.  I think he's going down and absolutely deserves to, but not for a good while yet, definitely not in TWOW.

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1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Thus far I count 3 paid monkeys and a young girl he likes to brag to.    Not very smart for the way he normally operates. 

Indeed! And looking ahead,

Spoiler

one of his three new hires, Ser Shadrak, has been searching for "Sansa Stark" for some time now...

I agree; Littlefinger seems to be slipping and we can hope it catches up with him... soon.

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Rhaegar should be here.  Honoring Lyanna at the tourney was pushing etiquette.  That was rude to his wife and to Lyanna's family.  It was crude and rude to do that publicly.  Princess Elia didn't deserve that humiliation.  The truth about Rhaegar is somewhere between Robert's opinion and everyone else's.  He's a moody jerk.  He should know better than to seduce a woman already engaged.  Lyanna should have known better and should take part of the blame.

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I imagine what has kept Baelish alive is that no one saw him as a threat because he was born so low. Now he's Lord Paramount of the Vale and essentially reigns above lords and ladies from far better breeding and ancestry than him. So I'd agree that's a very flimsy branch he's standing on. He's acting quickly, monetarily (and... er, prostitutionally) compensating these people to placate their bristled pride at having to bow to him.

What's keeping them from betraying him? Nothing. But if he didn't account for that he wouldn't really be the Baelish I interpret him to be.

To address the main topic, I think a point of the series is there is no safe route for survival. There are some characters that make numerous mistakes and walk away unscathed, and there are some that make one or two minor ones and end up dead. The circumstances and a roll of the dice seem to be the only things we can refer to.

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12 hours ago, Princess Daenerys said:

He should know better than to seduce a woman already engaged.  Lyanna should have known better and should take part of the blame.

I can't deny that there's a lot of blame to go around, and the perps certainly deserve much of it. On the other hand, both of them knew Robert Baratheon and his ways; it's not at all surprising that Lyanna would want to dodge that bullet, and Rhaegar might gallantly want to help her to do it. Motive is critical. And Rhaegar may not have been totally in the throes of lust/love; he may also have seen a tie-in to the prophesies he'd been writing his uncle Aemon about for so many years.

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20 hours ago, zandru said:

Indeed! Catelyn read the sign of the dead direwolf and stag correctly. But she also warned him of his responsibility; Ned really, really didn't want to do a Hand job for Robert (har) and have to leave Winterfell. Ned had another chance to get out of it when Bran fell; he could have claimed his family responsibilities had to take precedence.

On the other "hand", if Ned had waited for Robert to eventually return from his hunt, which could have taken weeks, all that killing and devastation would have continued in the Riverlands. That wasn't Ned's way. And as we now know, Robert died shortly after his return from the hunt, anyway.

Ordering Tyrion's release might have been a good idea, but Ned had no way to get a message to Catelyn. She was on the road, and nobody who wasn't with her knew where she was, or where she was going. Moreover, just and decent Ned might have assumed that an inquiry and trial would either clear or condemn Tyrion, and there was no reason not to let the wheels of justice turn. He had no idea that his sister in law was barking mad; even Catelyn was horrified to see what Lysa had degenerated into.

Pride was a factor.  Ned could have sent a message of truce to Tywin with the promise to release Tyrion and forget the whole thing with Bran. 

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15 hours ago, Princess Daenerys said:

Rhaegar should be here.  Honoring Lyanna at the tourney was pushing etiquette.  That was rude to his wife and to Lyanna's family.  It was crude and rude to do that publicly.  Princess Elia didn't deserve that humiliation.  The truth about Rhaegar is somewhere between Robert's opinion and everyone else's.  He's a moody jerk.  He should know better than to seduce a woman already engaged.  Lyanna should have known better and should take part of the blame.

Rhaegar was mopey and quiet.  He played music and sang sad songs.  He was skilled with sword.  Barristan liked him.  Ned doesn't seem to hate him.  Jon C. was in love with him.  Maybe not love but felt a deep affection for him, how's that.  Beyond that we know little about the man.  An artist is not necessarily a practical person.  What if Rhaegar was more passionate than calculating.  He felt attracted to Lyanna and just threw all common sense out the window and went for it.  Robb did the same thing.  Both died and both deserved it.  You are right, that was public humiliation to Princess Elia and Rhaegar should be on this list. 

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On 11/15/2017 at 7:24 AM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

I have read Annalee's article on why she believe all of the main characters will die and decided to write my own thoughts on the topic.  In my opinion, people get killed when they go beyond the limits of their environment.  Call it the breaking point, tipping point, point of no return, boundaries, tolerance.  I think it is when these people go beyond that tolerance that they get killed. 

1.  King Viserys - The Dothraki tolerated him because he was the brother of their new khaleesi but he went beyond what their customs could tolerate when he threatened Dany and the Stallion within the boundaries of Vaes Dothrak.

2.  King Aerys II - He pushed too far with Jon Arryn and it led to the rebellion.  He should have stopped at the execution of Brandon and Rickard.  Eddard and Robert should have been taken care of discreetly.

3.  Robb - He alienated a key ally in Karstark.  He might have survived this but he also betrayed his most powerful supporter.

4.  Jon - He was pushing his NW brothers to accept a new way of dealing with the wildlings and he would have been fine had he stopped there.  His efforts to steal Arya away from Ramsay was too much and it got him executed.

 

All true. 

About #4.  That's the reason why I killed him.   His fixation on his little sister led him to make terrible decisions.  He had to go. 

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On 15/11/2017 at 4:32 PM, ChuckPunch said:

Robb did nothing wrong regarding the Karstarks. Rickard couldn't handle the realities of war and murdered innocent (and valuable) children. He deserved what he got. 

Agree, Robb did what Ned would have done in the situation and he made the right move. He lost the war because he sent Theon to the Iron Islands and married Jeyne instead of honouring his arranged marriage, not because he served justice. 

On 15/11/2017 at 0:24 PM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

In my opinion, people get killed when they go beyond the limits of their environment.  Call it the breaking point, tipping point, point of no return, boundaries, tolerance.  I think it is when these people go beyond that tolerance that they get killed. 

:agree:

This is what caused the fall of House Targaryen; both Rhaegar and Aerys went too far and it ignited the spark of rebellion that was simmering for years. Hotheadedness, cruelty, arrogance, shortsightedness, stupidity, paranoia etc. caused the deaths of many characters but it was only after these traits pushed them over the edge. 

  • Brandon: hotheadedness, but unlike others I actually sympathise with him
  • Rhaegar: arrogance, shortsightedness, and stupidity
  • Aerys II: paranoia and cruelty
  • Viserys: arrogance 
  • Robb: hotheadness 
  • Joffrey: cruelty 
  • Jon: shortsightedness 

As for what will get people killed:

  • Dany: shortsightedness 
  • Cersei: paranoia 
  • Ramsy: cruelty 
  • Roose: for his role in the Red Wedding
  • Littlefinger: arrogance, Sansa's going to betray him and he won't realise until it's too late

 

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On 11/15/2017 at 7:24 AM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

I have read Annalee's article on why she believe all of the main characters will die and decided to write my own thoughts on the topic.  In my opinion, people get killed when they go beyond the limits of their environment.  Call it the breaking point, tipping point, point of no return, boundaries, tolerance.  I think it is when these people go beyond that tolerance that they get killed. 

1.  King Viserys - The Dothraki tolerated him because he was the brother of their new khaleesi but he went beyond what their customs could tolerate when he threatened Dany and the Stallion within the boundaries of Vaes Dothrak.

2.  King Aerys II - He pushed too far with Jon Arryn and it led to the rebellion.  He should have stopped at the execution of Brandon and Rickard.  Eddard and Robert should have been taken care of discreetly.

3.  Robb - He alienated a key ally in Karstark.  He might have survived this but he also betrayed his most powerful supporter.

4.  Jon - He was pushing his NW brothers to accept a new way of dealing with the wildlings and he would have been fine had he stopped there.  His efforts to steal Arya away from Ramsay was too much and it got him executed.

The limit is different for everyone.  King Aerys had the widest tolerance of any of the examples.  Let us use the analogy of a boat to represent the environment.  Aerys had three centuries of family dynasty, he was a king in every way that is legal, the realm was in a state of prosperity, he surrounded himself with capable and loyal people.  His boat was solid, his crew was loyal, and the other passengers don't want to rock the boat when the times are good and plenty.   Contrast this to Robb who was already skating on thin ice when he rebelled against the crown.  Dumping on two important crew got Robb thrown off the boat and fed to the sharks.

That escalating bad decisions that increasingly rock the boat is what get people killed.  Petyr Baelish has so far known how to stay within the limits.  It will be interesting to see if the Freys and the Boltons have exceeded the tolerance of their environment and what consequences may result to them.  I don't think all of the main characters will die but we can get a clue as to which ones will die based on how much or how little they start to rock the boat in Winds.  Just remember that some can rock their boat a lot and get away with it because each boat and crew are different.  Perhaps it is knowing how much you can rock your boat that is the mark of intelligence. 

Arya has already exceeded her limits in Braavos.  She's a walking dead person.   

 

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