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U.S. Politics 2017: He's Good Enough, He's Smart Enough, and GODDAMMIT AL, WTF WERE YOU THINKING?


Manhole Eunuchsbane

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27 minutes ago, Mexal said:

More fun at Trump properties, this time in Panama. I just don't see how Trump doesn't go down after all is said and done. His organization is so corrupt.

So?

I'm quite serious. So what? Who is going to be trying him? For what crime? We just had a Democratic senator get a mistrial (with apparently 10 of the 12 arguing acquittal) who got millions of dollars in gifts and did favors for his friend. 

Trump has been directing people to use his hotels for months now. He has advertised his properties in public statements across the world as POTUS. He has engineered a tax break worth at least a billion dollars to his family. He has taken his family in as advisors and given them security clearances despite egregious violations of protocol for those things. 

I think it's time to come to the conclusion that corruption and bribery are simply how things are going to work in the US now. 

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

So in effect you’re saying you’d like some banana with your republic, Kal?

I don't see how we won't be. We'll make noises about democracy and whatnot, but we as a nation had a chance to regulate corporate graft, political donations and outright bribery - and we blew it. Republicans didn't denounce or demand Trump give these things up, the public didn't give enough of an outcry, and here we are - a person who has direct ties to their businesses using their position to promote their businesses, and it doesn't make news at all. The POTUS just effectively got his justice department to investigate his enemies. Meanwhile, this is all allowed by the major check against it because it would also give billionaires big amounts of money, which will then get funneled in unlimited supply to the politicians, who have largely safe positions except when they take moral views against the POTUS. 

Already the norms of what acceptable politics are have been stretched and deformed well past functional Democracies. And the biggest one is that we have, effectively, two sides of press at this point, and one group basically ignores all press that doesn't suit them. 

We don't have objective truth, shared norms, or any real ability to punish elected officials who deviate. We have massive bribery and corruption at a global scale. We have an immigration force that literally takes people in the middle of the night and disappears them without trial or representation or any sign of them. We have minority oppression. And things are getting worse.

How are we different from, say, Russia? We're different from China in that China has VERY strong anti-corruption laws that they actually enforce, though those laws are explicitly against foreign governments - but we don't bother with that.

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52 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

So?

I'm quite serious. So what? Who is going to be trying him? For what crime? We just had a Democratic senator get a mistrial (with apparently 10 of the 12 arguing acquittal) who got millions of dollars in gifts and did favors for his friend. 

Trump has been directing people to use his hotels for months now. He has advertised his properties in public statements across the world as POTUS. He has engineered a tax break worth at least a billion dollars to his family. He has taken his family in as advisors and given them security clearances despite egregious violations of protocol for those things. 

I think it's time to come to the conclusion that corruption and bribery are simply how things are going to work in the US now. 

You're talking ethics. You're talking about a tax law that Republicans have been trying to pass for years (which Trump has nothing to really do with) and is trying to pass through our defined system of government. 

The shit that the Trump Organization has done has nothing to do with politics, is likely very illegal and very different. If the government can prove it, you're not talking an ethics violation by a government organization with no teeth. 

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1 minute ago, Mexal said:

You're talking ethics. You're talking about a tax law that Republicans have been trying to pass for years (which Trump has nothing to really do with) and is trying to pass through our defined system of government. 

The shit that the Trump Organization has done has nothing to do with politics, is likely very illegal and very different. If the government can prove it, you're not talking an ethics violation by a government organization with no teeth. 

And who is going to prosecute?

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Just now, Kalbear said:

And who is going to prosecute?

The DOJ? NY State AG? It doesn't have to happen this year, next year or the next 3 years. It can happen when Trump leaves office and his puppet elf isn't running the DOJ. The point is, all of these things are coming up now because of the attention on the Trump Organization and I highly doubt they just go away when he leaves office, especially if it's actually as shady as it seems to be.

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5 minutes ago, Mexal said:

The DOJ?

In what, 9 years? When Trump is 78? Good luck with that.

5 minutes ago, Mexal said:

NY State AG? 

Paradise papers wouldn't apply to NY. 

5 minutes ago, Mexal said:

It doesn't have to happen this year, next year or the next 3 years. It can happen when Trump leaves office and his puppet elf isn't running the DOJ. The point is, all of these things are coming up now because of the attention on the Trump Organization and I highly doubt they just go away when he leaves office, especially if it's actually as shady as it seems to be.

If it doesn't happen soon, it won't happen. We barely remember events from a couple weeks ago. Trump openly insulted Gold Star families a couple weeks back; anyone remember that prior to me bringing it up? 

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Just now, Kalbear said:

In what, 9 years? When Trump is 78? Good luck with that.

Paradise papers wouldn't apply to NY. 

If it doesn't happen soon, it won't happen. We barely remember events from a couple weeks ago. Trump openly insulted Gold Star families a couple weeks back; anyone remember that prior to me bringing it up? 

We, as in the national collective of American people, may not remember, because of the constant flow of new information daily but the FBI? The District Attorney's offices? The NY State AG? Yea, I bet they remember.

You assume Trump will be there for another 7 years. I do not. You assume the Trump Organization is just Trump. It is not. And you assume that the shit in Panama is the only skeleton, it likely is not (Trump Soho?).

Point is, the more stories that come out, the more likely it gets investigated at some point. It may already be through Mueller's team to see what type of shit the Russians might have on him. We don't know. You may be pessimistic about well, everything, but I'm not. Just most things.

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1 minute ago, Mexal said:

We, as in the national collective of American people, may not remember, because of the constant flow of new information daily but the FBI? The District Attorney's offices? The NY State AG? Yea, I bet they remember.

FBI won't have jurisdiction without the AG stepping in. DA offices won't have jurisdiction at all. NY State AG doesn't have anything. They can remember, but they're toothless.

1 minute ago, Mexal said:

You assume Trump will be there for another 7 years. I do not. You assume the Trump Organization is just Trump. It is not. And you assume that the shit in Panama is the only skeleton, it likely is not (Trump Soho?).

I assume Trump will be there for 7 years, yes. 

I assume that everyone else will be complicit in covering for him for as long as he is around, and likely a lot longer after that. 

1 minute ago, Mexal said:

Point is, the more stories that come out, the more likely it gets investigated at some point. It may already be through Mueller's team to see what type of shit the Russians might have on him. We don't know. You may be pessimistic about well, everything, but I'm not. Just most things.

I'm basing it on data we have. 

So far, there has been zero sign that congress has wanted to do a single thing to rein in Trump, investigate him or do anything to tarnish him in any way. The one thing they did do was rebuffed and ignored by Trump without any penalty whatsoever (the Russia sanctions). As I said previously the next time congress stands up to Trump will be the first time. 

And congress is literally the only body that can do a single thing to him right now.

Furthermore, we're seeing such an erosion of norms that someone who simply doesn't openly advertise their businesses in international conversations will be seen as ethical. If they only pocket $500m from tax deals, they'll be good to go. 

Here's an example: remember when Sessions said he'd recuse himself from any investigation or dealing with Clinton? And now we are at 8 months later, and he's looking into investigating Clinton?

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1 minute ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

It could given specific circumstance I would think. Money that would've otherwise been taxable by NY, right? I would have to imagine that would apply to a fair percentage of Trump's wealth.

There's no sign that any of the money was particularly illegally reported or withheld. It was simply laundered. As long as Trump didn't do it with actual knowledge of it - IE, real signed evidence of a conspiracy to commit tax evasion - he'll be fine.

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3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

FBI won't have jurisdiction without the AG stepping in. DA offices won't have jurisdiction at all. NY State AG doesn't have anything. They can remember, but they're toothless.

I assume Trump will be there for 7 years, yes. 

I assume that everyone else will be complicit in covering for him for as long as he is around, and likely a lot longer after that. 

I'm basing it on data we have. 

So far, there has been zero sign that congress has wanted to do a single thing to rein in Trump, investigate him or do anything to tarnish him in any way. The one thing they did do was rebuffed and ignored by Trump without any penalty whatsoever (the Russia sanctions). As I said previously the next time congress stands up to Trump will be the first time. 

And congress is literally the only body that can do a single thing to him right now.

Furthermore, we're seeing such an erosion of norms that someone who simply doesn't openly advertise their businesses in international conversations will be seen as ethical. If they only pocket $500m from tax deals, they'll be good to go. 

Here's an example: remember when Sessions said he'd recuse himself from any investigation or dealing with Clinton? And now we are at 8 months later, and he's looking into investigating Clinton?

I don't expect Sessions to investigate Trump and I don't expect Congress, in the hands of the Republicans, to investigate their own President while they're in the process of trying to take away healthcare from 20 million people and pass tax reform for millionaires. I also don't believe that this will forever be the case in American politics, which it's very clear you do. So lets just agree to disagree. You keep pointing out all the times Congress allows Trump to do unethical shit and I'll keep posting links to Trump Organization shady business dealings. We'll see what happens in the future.

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16 minutes ago, Mexal said:

I don't expect Sessions to investigate Trump and I don't expect Congress, in the hands of the Republicans, to investigate their own President while they're in the process of trying to take away healthcare from 20 million people and pass tax reform for millionaires. I also don't believe that this will forever be the case in American politics, which it's very clear you do. So lets just agree to disagree. You keep pointing out all the times Congress allows Trump to do unethical shit and I'll keep posting links to Trump Organization shady business dealings. We'll see what happens in the future.

I'm gonna challenge you on that.

Let's say that the House gets overtaken by Democrats, which is probably about 50-50 likely to happen right now. What happens then?

Let's also say that the Senate miraculously also gets overtaken by Democrats. What happens then?

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12 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I'm gonna challenge you on that.

Let's say that the House gets overtaken by Democrats, which is probably about 50-50 likely to happen right now. What happens then?

Let's also say that the Senate miraculously also gets overtaken by Democrats. What happens then?

The floodgates would be opened, What do you think would happen? 

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1 hour ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

The floodgates would be opened, What do you think would happen? 

Nothing.

I think that Democrats might try to impeach Trump, but chances are good that they'd simply oppose him. Unless they have any chance of passing articles of impeachment in the Senate, they're not going to jump down that rabbit hole, because they saw how congress got punished for trying it against Clinton last time and would be wary of doing something that could be framed to look partisan.

The problem is that everything will now look partisan. 

Really, the only hope to get rid of someone like this at this point is a supermajority, and I don't see that happening. And if it does, it'd still be partisan. 

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