U.S. Politics 2017: He's Good Enough, He's Smart Enough, and GODDAMMIT AL, WTF WERE YOU THINKING?

[DMC]

50 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

the ultimate one was 3 consecutive anti-regulation presidents that encouraged unstable economic growth and lack of oversight.

4, and even Carter is arguable in being "pro" regulation (specifically, he deregulated the airlines).  Basically, you had 40 years of presidents that primarily focused on deregulation.  And yes, with the 1999 repeal of Glass-Steagall, many people did indeed foresee it.

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Inigima said:

I don't disagree with that Factcheck list, but virtually everything on it is controlled by or heavily affected by the administration in power. 

I quickly read that article and there are few things I take issue with. For example:

Quote

The Federal Reserve, which slashed interest rates after the dot-com bubble burst, making credit cheap.

1. If your are going to use this story. Then as a theoretical matter you must get read of the notion that asset prices are set according to the idea of rational expectations rational valuation formulas. I mean I'm fine with that. But, once you say that doesn't represent reality, then you need to acknowledge the need for financial regulation.

And secondly, there is research out there, that doesn't buy this. It basically says the short term rates set by the Fed had little to do with the home buying, but rather it was the compression of long term yields that caused it. And the source of the long term yeilds were foreign capital inflows.

And thirdly trying to prick asset bubbles with the FED rate is horrible policy, something I've discussed before. Better to use other policy levers.

Quote

Congress, which continues to support a mortgage tax deduction that gives consumers a tax incentive to buy more expensive houses.

Again, only works if you give up rational expectations rational valuation models of asset pricing. And conservative sorts of people might be loathe to give that notion up.

Quote

The Clinton administration, which pushed for less stringent credit and downpayment requirements for working- and middle-class families.

This sounds like the Community Reinvestment Act story that conservatives claimed caused the crises. And it' is completely bunk.

And once again, only works if you give up rational expectations rational valuation models of asset pricing. And conservative sorts of people might be loathe to give that notion up.

ETA:

Also forgot to add, there are about one or two papers I know of that basically says the borrowing binge happened along all economic and social classes. So it doesn't appear it was just working class and middle class families.

And then of course, this raises the question of why didn't the banks do a better job of managing risk? I mean they are supposed to be the financial experts here. Maybe they bought into Bloomberg's rationalization that the working and middle class brought about the crises but oh no not Wall Street.

[AverageGuy]

 

6 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said:

What I don't get is that any person can google these statistics.  They are easily and readily available from a variety of different sources.  They all point to the US as being pretty behind, definitely not the greatest country on earth.  And yet so many Americans insist it's true and will repeat it over and over.  It's the sort of lying to one's self that I simply can never understand.

Pew says 29% of Americans who believe that. It's been dropping from 4 years ago (38%). I expect to see the attitude continue to fade.

[Zorral]

This puts it all down in black and white that accusations the left isn't open to the ideas of the crazy winger nazi xtian trumpist is a zero sum game that is a total waste of our time (especially as THEY aren't open to anything that doesn't enforce their fantasy agenda that anyone who isn't in the lunatic asylum with them is crazy):

https://www.salon.com/2017/11/24/forget-the-holiday-advice-do-not-bother-debating-with-trump-supporting-family-members/

 

 

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, OldGimletEye said:

Also forgot to add, there are about one or two papers I know of that basically says the borrowing binge happened along all economic and social classes. So it doesn't appear it was just working class and middle class families.

I remember that time just before the crash, it was craazeee.  Where I lived there was a lot of new housing developments and one of my riding buddies was in the business.  I remember that she was receiving calls for how to buy at one her companies developments, before  the lots had even been drawn out. 

And on the radio and TV adds all the time for no-interest loans, signature loans, home equity loans and on and on.   Billboards on the freeway 'Turn you house into an ATM with an home equity loan'  showing pretty pictures of boats and decks and other stuff.  The flip your house shows on the tube and the flippers in the neighborhoods, crazy, not rational and headed for a crash.  

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Nasty LongRider said:

 The flip your house shows on the tube and the flippers in the neighborhoods, crazy, not rational and headed for a crash.  

There is at least one paper I now of that looked at the LA housing market in detail and the run up in prices. It put a lot of the onus on inexperienced house flippers who didn't know what they were doing.  What it described sounded a lot like the Schiefler, et al. noise trader model of mispricing.

[Martell Spy]

11 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

I remember that time just before the crash, it was craazeee.  Where I lived there was a lot of new housing developments and one of my riding buddies was in the business.  I remember that she was receiving calls for how to buy at one her companies developments, before  the lots had even been drawn out. 

And on the radio and TV adds all the time for no-interest loans, signature loans, home equity loans and on and on.   Billboards on the freeway 'Turn you house into an ATM with an home equity loan'  showing pretty pictures of boats and decks and other stuff.  The flip your house shows on the tube and the flippers in the neighborhoods, crazy, not rational and headed for a crash.  

Seattle is just like that right now.

Well played, Mr. Codray. He has really done great work on behalf of consumers. I thought he was gonna leave us high and dry there by leaving though.

In final act, Cordray blocks Trump from naming his successor at consumer protection bureau

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/24/richard-cordray-successor-cfpb-leandra-english-259612

 

 

[LongRider]

2 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

There is at least one paper I now of that looked at the LA housing market in detail. It put a lot of the onus on inexperienced house flippers who didn't know what they were doing.  What it described sounded a lot like the Schiefler, et al. noise trader model of mispricing.

Interesting that that behavior was studied.  Of course, the get rich quick real estate scams have always been with us (looking at you Trump U) but the shows made it seem like flipping houses was as easy and as risky as flippin' burgers.   I lived in a working class neighborhood at the time and after the crash so many empty houses.  Tragedy really.  So many folks, of all classes, expecting the pro's do them right with loans and housing sales.  Sadly, no. 

[LongRider]

2 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Seattle is just like that right now.

Yikes!

[Martell Spy]

I know this is US Politics, but I figure this belongs here, given all that is going on and Mr. Manafort's penchant for real estate schemes.

An Arrest in France Freaks Out the Kremlin Kleptocracy
The ‘pocket oligarchs’ close to Putin might have thought they were beyond the reach of law in the south of France. The arrest of Suleiman Kerimov shows they're not.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/an-arrest-in-france-freaks-out-the-kremlin-kleptocracy

[Martell Spy]

“KELLY HAS CLIPPED HIS WINGS”: JARED KUSHNER’S HORIZONS ARE COLLAPSING WITHIN THE WEST WING
The West Wing princeling’s portfolio had been shrunk largely to the Middle East—but then his Saudi Arabia trip caused problems for the chief of staff.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/11/jared-kushner-horizons-are-collapsing-within-the-west-wing

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Nasty LongRider said:

I remember that time just before the crash, it was craazeee.  Where I lived there was a lot of new housing developments and one of my riding buddies was in the business.  I remember that she was receiving calls for how to buy at one her companies developments, before  the lots had even been drawn out. 

And on the radio and TV adds all the time for no-interest loans, signature loans, home equity loans and on and on.   Billboards on the freeway 'Turn you house into an ATM with an home equity loan'  showing pretty pictures of boats and decks and other stuff.  The flip your house shows on the tube and the flippers in the neighborhoods, crazy, not rational and headed for a crash.  

Do not forget the giant billboardpost 9/11 everywhere (especially in Manhattan) featuring a huge Dub likeness informing the US public that the best defense against those who hate us is to -- expand one's credit load and go shopping!  Charge all kinds of shyte and prove to the world how patriotic and American we are!  I just went, WTF???????

[LongRider]

25 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Do not forget the giant billboardpost 9/11 everywhere (especially in Manhattan) featuring a huge Dub likeness informing the US public that the best defense against those who hate us is to -- expand one's credit load and go shopping!  Charge all kinds of shyte and prove to the world how patriotic and American we are!  I just went, WTF???????

Not being in Manhattan I missed that sign, but I do remember something about Dub saying to go shopping.  I guess if you didn't max out your cc's after 911, the terrorists win.

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Nasty LongRider said:

 I guess if you didn't max out your cc's after 911, the terrorists win.

Particularly if you didn't max out your credit cards by buying copies of the "Bush Country".

Just for some big laughs:

https://www.amazon.com/Bush-Country-President-Driving-Liberals/dp/0312324723/

Quote

In this rousing, persuasive, and hugely entertaining book, John Podhoretz says that George W. Bush has earned a place in the pantheon of great American chief executives---and shows in one amazing detail after another how Bush's success has driven some of his critics into a pathological frenzy.

Podhertz sure got us liberals good with that one. Showed us didn't he?

[IamMe90]

1 hour ago, OldGimletEye said:

Particularly if you didn't max out your credit cards by buying copies of the "Bush Country".

Just for some big laughs:

https://www.amazon.com/Bush-Country-President-Driving-Liberals/dp/0312324723/

Podhertz sure got us liberals good with that one. Showed us didn't he?

I think I threw up a little bit in my mouth. 

[lokisnow]

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

This puts it all down in black and white that accusations the left isn't open to the ideas of the crazy winger nazi xtian trumpist is a zero sum game that is a total waste of our time (especially as THEY aren't open to anything that doesn't enforce their fantasy agenda that anyone who isn't in the lunatic asylum with them is crazy):

https://www.salon.com/2017/11/24/forget-the-holiday-advice-do-not-bother-debating-with-trump-supporting-family-members/

 

 

Disagree.

if you want to change hearts and minds, don't lay down the napalm.

basically, the best thing you can do with trump supporting relatives at thanksgiving is to ask them to tell you about the kindest thing they have ever done for someone (not in the family) and why they are thankful for that. In telling the story they activate what are called their nurturing circuits in their brain, which control positive feelings towards in-group members.

because you are in their in group this includes you, and chances are they will ask you to tell your own story, in telling your story, some of that in-group identifier they have will subconsciously expand to include people in your story. The more this is reinforced with repetition by talking in these positive manners about people in their in group the more active and stronger their nurturing circuits become and the more they hear stories about people in yours the more their in group expands the less trump like they become, the less reflexively insular and hostile they become to people in their outgroup.

of course if you're a typical white college graduate liberal living In a segregated (former redline) major city and have no stories of kindness nor generosity to people in your family members outgroup, you may need to work on your the stye in your eye first.

 

 

[ThinkerX]

4 hours ago, Nasty LongRider said:

I remember that time just before the crash, it was craazeee.  Where I lived there was a lot of new housing developments and one of my riding buddies was in the business.  I remember that she was receiving calls for how to buy at one her companies developments, before  the lots had even been drawn out. 

And on the radio and TV adds all the time for no-interest loans, signature loans, home equity loans and on and on.   Billboards on the freeway 'Turn you house into an ATM with an home equity loan'  showing pretty pictures of boats and decks and other stuff.  The flip your house shows on the tube and the flippers in the neighborhoods, crazy, not rational and headed for a crash.  

The radio stations hereabouts are deluged with adds of this sort (especially 'Quicken Loans') - and perhaps not surprisingly other adds for credit cards with great rates and payday loan outfits.

 

That said, I poste here often about the dire mess headed our way back in 2006-2007.  Quite a few posters here flat out refused to believe that anything was seriously amiss right up until the crash of 2008.  Kept blaming me for posting conspiracy theories.  Strangely most of them also thought TARP was a good thing instead of a literal coup by the financial sector over the government. 

 

Should this tax cut for the rich idiocy pass, we are, of course headed for a repeat of the 2007-2008 fiasco before the end of Trumps first term.

[LongRider]

7 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

 

Should this tax cut for the rich idiocy pass, we are, of course headed for a repeat of the 2007-2008 fiasco before the end of Trumps first term.

If it passes a fiasco will be heading our way I agree, but it will take longer than 45's next 3 years in office.  Although if the ACA mandate is killed, then healthcare could change more rapidly I would think.

[ThinkerX]

21 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

If it passes a fiasco will be heading our way I agree, but it will take longer than 45's next 3 years in office.  Although if the ACA mandate is killed, then healthcare could change more rapidly I would think.

I am inclined to stand by my original assessment because the behavior that led to the 2007-2008 crash is back, AND the Trump crew is very aggressive about deregulation/budget cuts.  Case in point from the radio adds here: Quicken Loans harps constantly on their 'Rocket Mortgage.' Plus, my view is that the 'recovery' from the 2007-2008 mess is 'fragile at best.' 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Seattle is just like that right now.

Well played, Mr. Codray. He has really done great work on behalf of consumers. I thought he was gonna leave us high and dry there by leaving though.

In final act, Cordray blocks Trump from naming his successor at consumer protection bureau

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/24/richard-cordray-successor-cfpb-leandra-english-259612

 

 

I fucking love Cordray. I'm half tempted to move to Ohio just to vote for him.