NBA 2017 - 18: A Shot at Parity

[James Arryn]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is hard for me to imagine Lebron wants anything BUT another championship.  He's the best player of his generation, and yet he's only managed 3 rings.  That's by far the fewest of the All-Time greats of guys like Jordan, Magic, Russell, Kobe, Duncan.  It's more akin to the second tier greats like Shaq, or Hakeem.  I mean, if he just wants to go out there and have fun, he can start a pickup league. 

Well there is one Eastern conference team that has a lot of talent and hasn't won a championship since the 70s...

Philadelphia? Oh, no, wait, they won in the 80’s. Hmmmm....scratching my head here. Who else in the East has a lot of talent and won in the 70’s. Boston won more recently, Washington’s meh talent wise, Toronto ‘s DQ”d both ways. I’m gonna assume you mean Philly, MLB or NHL.

[Rhom]

 

[DanteGabriel]

In retrospect, LeBron literally overlooking IT was the Fredo Kiss.

It's wonderful that getting traded to the Lakers is what follows after a Fredo Kiss.

[briantw]

So from what I've heard, the main reason for the Wade trade (which was discussed with both LeBron and Wade prior) is that he's been a big enabler for LeBron's shit attitude in January.  I think the Cavs thought that Wade would help keep LeBron in check, as that's what he did in Miami, but the inverse became true instead, and so they were fine with parting with him despite his solid play in a reserve role.  And this will allow him to retire in Miami.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Durant's had his chance to make money and not win.  I think he stays put.

Thompson on the other hand?   

That was pre-winning. Now that he's won, and especially if he wins again this year, Durant may decide it's money time. Of course, it could also be he's decided that the extra advertising/sponsorship money he'll make being part of a long-term dynasty is more than getting his full salary.

 

53 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Well looking at Sportrac, it looks like all the main GSW guys are signed at least for this year and next.  So yes, there's a good chance that the Warriors will have trouble holding onto the full Big 4 in the 2020 season.  But by then Lebron is going to by 35, and have a LOT more miles than most 35 year olds.  I have no doubt he'll still be good, but he might have trouble staying healthy and his defense will probably suffer significantly.  Kobe dropped off fast once he hit 34-35. 

I think that if Lebron is going to win another championship, his chances go down significantly each year.  So he needs a team that is going to be great in 2018-19 and 19-20.  The Lakers are not that team. 

Durant's contract is a player-option only next year. IF he wants to, he can freely leave after this season ends. Having that freedom is the benefit he gets (besides winning so much) for taking a below-value contract. He signed a 1+1 contract before last season, and before this season he rejected the player option and signed a new 1+1 contract. If he wants to stay next season, he'll presumably do that again. Or maybe he signs a long-term deal at that point to protect against injury, but that would mean locking himself into this lower salary for multiple more years.

[Jaime L]

30 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Kinda OT, but even as a Rockets fan I cannot get why it’s always such an attractive destination option for star players. Never been, but my Rockets fan friends tell me it’s a terrible place, and you’d think the tax thing would make Dallas and San Antonio just as appealing. Not complaining, just always puzzled. 

As for LBJ to _____, I have no clue. I guess as a Rockets fan I’d say ‘why would he hedge his bets after all this time?’

The big edge Houston has is a smart, aggressive GM who always has the organization positioned well to get superstars. Dallas was attractive when Dirk was still in his prime but now they don't have anything close to one so they're starting from scratch. SA has been 100% about the draft except for one exception - LMA. 

45 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is hard for me to imagine Lebron wants anything BUT another championship.  He's the best player of his generation, and yet he's only managed 3 rings.  That's by far the fewest of the All-Time greats of guys like Jordan, Magic, Russell, Kobe, Duncan.  It's more akin to the second tier greats like Shaq, or Hakeem.  I mean, if he just wants to go out there and have fun, he can start a pickup league. 

Well there is one Eastern conference team that has a lot of talent and hasn't won a championship since the 70s...

I mean that's how we view him. But I think he's as much motivated by living where he wants to live and playing with who he wants to play with. He has 3 rings now so nothing he needs to prove on that end. I don't get the sense he's near as fanatical about the MJ comparisons as Kobe was. 

I'd never be sober again if Lebron randomly chose the Wizards. Otto Porter for Lebron...who says no?? 

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

I mean that's how we view him. But I think he's as much motivated by living where he wants to live and playing with who he wants to play with. He has 3 rings now so nothing he needs to prove on that end. I don't get the sense he's near as fanatical about the MJ comparisons as Kobe was.

Lebron's desire is greatness generally, rather than specifically surpassing Jordan.  But I still think he hates to lose, he looks very unhappy in Cleveland now.  And with all the guys they've brought in, there's a good chance that they can still make the Finals again, but he knows that there's no hope of beating GSW barring a fluke injury.  And I'm not at all sure that just one injury would be enough.  If the other 3 guys are all healthy, they're still strong favorites IMO (although Houston might be more of a challenge). 

I do think that Lebron is going to hang it up once he starts getting injured and cannot play at the level he wants.  Which means we might only have like 3 more years of the guy.  And I'd be very surprised if he doesn't do all he can to win one more in that time. 

[DMC]

Orlando trades Elfrid Payton for a 2nd rounder.  So much fun being a Magic fan.

On Lebron, looking at team salaries, damn, his options seem pretty limited.  Who's even going to be able to make room for him?  

[Red Tiger]

https://twitter.com/swaggy_b_/status/961662993539981313/photo/1

 

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Lebron's desire is greatness generally, rather than specifically surpassing Jordan.  But I still think he hates to lose, he looks very unhappy in Cleveland now.  And with all the guys they've brought in, there's a good chance that they can still make the Finals again, but he knows that there's no hope of beating GSW barring a fluke injury.  And I'm not at all sure that just one injury would be enough.  If the other 3 guys are all healthy, they're still strong favorites IMO (although Houston might be more of a challenge). 

I do think that Lebron is going to hang it up once he starts getting injured and cannot play at the level he wants.  Which means we might only have like 3 more years of the guy.  And I'd be very surprised if he doesn't do all he can to win one more in that time. 

I just don't see where else LeBron can go that has cap space (he's been adamant that he will not take less than the max, which is over 30 million for him) and can give him a better chance to win than the Cavs.  If he goes to the Lakers, he's just losing in the Conference Finals or the second round (depending on seed) rather than the Finals, so not sure why he'd do that.  Houston would have to basically make damn near impossible moves to open up any cap space at all, let alone a LeBron max.  I guess the Spurs are possible, but I find it hard to believe LeBron would go there.  He's spent his entire career forcing teams to build their systems around him.  Is he really going to a team where the system is more important than the players and the coach would absolutely have more power than he would?

I think it's far more likely that the Cavs flip that Brooklyn pick for another star this summer (glad they held on to it, because there wasn't really anyone worth it available right now) and LeBron sticks around.

[Slurktan]

41 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Orlando trades Elfrid Payton for a 2nd rounder.  So much fun being a Magic fan.

On Lebron, looking at team salaries, damn, his options seem pretty limited.  Who's even going to be able to make room for him?  

The only team he was ever going to?

[briantw]

[Rhom]

Well this sounds like its off to a great start...

Isaiah Thomas refuses to come off bench for Lakers

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The agent for Los Angeles Lakers point guard Isaiah Thomas has shed some light on why things didn’t work out in Cleveland — and hinted at some coming tension with his new organization.

Amid indications that Thomas may not start for his new team, ESPN’s Rachel Nichols relayed a text message sent to her by Thomas’s agent, Aaron Goodwin, during The Jump’s NBA trade deadline special. It was written in capital letters: “HE’S NOT COMING OFF THE BENCH.”

 

[DanteGabriel]

6 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Well this sounds like its off to a great start...

Isaiah Thomas refuses to come off bench for Lakers

 

The IT vs the Ball family beef is going to be fan-tastic.

[briantw]

14 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

The IT vs the Ball family beef is going to be fan-tastic.

Haha yeah that is going to make for some incredible Game of Zones videos.

Also, I'm happy that Larry Nance Jr. is getting to play for the Cavs.  Gotta be a nice moment for him.  I'm hoping he gets permission from his dad to wear #22.  Would be cool.

[PyroclasticFlow]

3 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Philadelphia? Oh, no, wait, they won in the 80’s. Hmmmm....scratching my head here. Who else in the East has a lot of talent and won in the 70’s. Boston won more recently, Washington’s meh talent wise, Toronto ‘s DQ”d both ways. I’m gonna assume you mean Philly, MLB or NHL.

Knicks haven't won since '73, but talent... not so much.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 hours ago, dmc515 said:

My Magic are once again going for that #1 pick baby!  Although they've screwed the pooch the past week winning 3 of 4, including beating the Cavs by 20 last night.  Big game tomorrow against the Hawks.  Anyway, my attention has been looking at mock drafts, and lots of interesting guys at the top.  Bagley, Ayton, Doncic, Young, even Porter who's injured - all look very intriguing.  Looks like a pretty damn good class.

So much for that hot start, right?

And I've got to say, you have an odd assortment of sports teams you root for (Yankees, Niners and Magic, right?)

2 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Orlando trades Elfrid Payton for a 2nd rounder.  So much fun being a Magic fan.

YOU MEAN I HAVE TO SEE HIS TERRIBLE HAIR FOUR TIMES A YEAR NOW?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

This was your doing, wasn't it @Jaime L?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 hours ago, Jaime L said:

T'Wolves-Cavs last night was really fun. Love watching Jimmy Butler and Lebron going at each other all OT. Jimmy was awesome but he made one critical mistake. Instead of using up the full 24 seconds on the final possession in OT and either hitting the game-winner or going to OT, he shot it with, like, 2 seconds left. Lebron then stuffed him and then ripped his heart out with a Christian Laettner turnaround on the other end. Classic Lebron. Remember how people used to argue he wasn't clutch? Hilarious. 

Great game indeed, though it sucks to be on the losing side. The one thing I don't get though is why wasn't LeBron double teamed? I'd much rather have anyone, but Korver get an open shot than let LeBron get it close to the basket with only one man on him. 

That said, Jimmy and LeBron always go hard at each other, and Jimmy usually gets the better of him (Butler is criminally underrated, and I used to be guilty of this myself). He's like a much better version of Draymond in every way except he can't guard true bigs. 

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The other thing though is Jimmy Butler got a little Iso-heavy in OT. Towns scored 30 and shot 80+% for the game including perfect from 3 - how is he completely ignored in OT?

That's kind of what they do. If either Jimmy or Wiggins has the hot hand, the just keep feeding them at the end of close games. I do think they do a bad job of feeding KAT though. There are games where he only puts up 7 or 8 shots. It's frustrating because there's really only a handful of guys in the league that can guard him. He should get at least 15 attempts every game. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, Maithanet said:

- Minnesota:  Not sure how they could fit this under the cap without shipping somebody out.  They have the talent, but another small market middle America team seems unlikely. 

You'd have to ship Wiggins and Teague out to make it work, especially if you also want to keep Butler past the 2018-19 season. LeBron-Butler-KAT would be one hell of a 1-2-3 punch though, and it would allow LeBron to age as KAT becomes the monster many of us think he can be. 

5 hours ago, Jaime L said:

Cavs got a lot better for this season. Got rid of a bunch of guys who wouldn't be able to hang in a playoff series and now actually have younger 3 and D wings and a PG who can actually defend to surround Lebron. Larry Nance is also decent. 

Still not sure why they didn't have to give up more for Hood and Hill. 

But yeah it was time to admit defeat on the Kyrie trade. At least they cut their losses. 

Agreed. I think their starting lineup might have taken a slight step back, assuming 2016-17 IT could return (seems doubtful), but their depth is so much better than last year, and I think that's what killed them in the Finals. There was one game in the Finals last year, I believe game 3, where LeBron went nuts, played 46 minutes and the Cavs were +7 with him in the game. Problem is they were -12 for the two minutes he sat. After LeBron, Kyrie and Love they had nothing and only one guy (JR) who could get his own shot and not much in terms of defense. This new look team should be able to get out of the East and have a punchers chance against who ever comes out of the West (and I'm not sure it's a lock that it will be the Warriors. The Rockets and the Thunder can role with anyone, and it's also not completely unthinkable that the Wolves could sneak through if some injuries occur). 

4 hours ago, Fez said:

Big question is if Durant and Thompson are willing to keep taking below-market value contracts. If they are, then yeah, LeBron Lakers aren't close enough to compete. But if they decide they've won enough and it's time to get paid, then this season or next, GS is blowing up their roster. They'd still have Curry and some combination of their starters, so they'd still be very good, but the West would be pretty wide open.

Of course, I don't think there's any way LeBron knows what they'll do; hell, Durant and Thompson may not know what they want to do yet. So he probably shouldn't base his long-term plans on it.

Durrant will stay. He really likes playing in GS's system, and he has said many times that he wants to be near Silicon Valley. That's where he sees his post playing days taking him. Thompson will likely leave though and go after the money. 

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Well looking at Sportrac, it looks like all the main GSW guys are signed at least for this year and next.  So yes, there's a good chance that the Warriors will have trouble holding onto the full Big 4 in the 2020 season.  But by then Lebron is going to by 35, and have a LOT more miles than most 35 year olds.  I have no doubt he'll still be good, but he might have trouble staying healthy and his defense will probably suffer significantly.  Kobe dropped off fast once he hit 34-35. 

I think that if Lebron is going to win another championship, his chances go down significantly each year.  So he needs a team that is going to be great in 2018-19 and 19-20.  The Lakers are not that team. 

LeBron's window to be the #1 on a championship team closes around the same time as the Warriors dynasty will.  I think he'll get another ring, but it will be with him as side piece.

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It is hard for me to imagine Lebron wants anything BUT another championship.  He's the best player of his generation, and yet he's only managed 3 rings.  That's by far the fewest of the All-Time greats of guys like Jordan, Magic, Russell, Kobe, Duncan.  It's more akin to the second tier greats like Shaq, or Hakeem.  I mean, if he just wants to go out there and have fun, he can start a pickup league. 

Your list seems a bit off to me, Maith. I don't even consider Russell and his rings because that was simply a different time with a very small league. And you're forgetting Bird, who many consider to be a top 5 All-Time player, and his three rings. Bird was better than Kobe, Shaq and Duncan, and only having three rings hasn't hurt his legacy (though gets a pass with a shortened career due to injury). 

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Well there is one Eastern conference team that has a lot of talent and hasn't won a championship since the 70s...

I actually think there's a good chance he ends up in Philly. 

[Jaime L]

22 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

This was your doing, wasn't it @Jaime L?

Even worse, you're about to see Kirk Cousins' goofy mug as your starting QB 16 times a year. #YouLikeThat