R+L=A

[LynnS]

22 minutes ago, Darion Storm said:

I wonder why people are so intent on these convoluted alternatives. They’re all threadbare and go against established facts but still they cling onto them.

So what? What difference does it make?  Is it really so important? What established facts? 

[Faera]

On 01/12/2017 at 5:48 PM, Ser Insight said:

Aegon is virtually the same person as Rhaegar. Their both described ass extremely good looking. Both are extremely good everything they do. Where they differ is Aegon prefers swords to books whereas Rhaegar preferred books to swords.

 

I have no problem with Young Griff exhibiting Rhaegar-like qualities because, if he is genuinely Aegon and not an imposter, that's the idea. Him being Rhaegar's son is not what is in question. It's his mother that is supposed to be getting debated here. Connecting Aegon to the Starks would be more interesting to discuss.
 

1 hour ago, Darion Storm said:

I wonder why people are so intent on these convoluted alternatives. They’re all threadbare and go against established facts but still they cling onto them.

2

I don't mind alternative theories because they are needed to keep us all thinking and our minds pumping. It's not fun if we just sit around rehashing the same ideas over and over.

That said, in regards to this theory, I'm still waiting for something more solid textually connecting Ned to Aegon, or Aegon to the Starks. Heck, even Ned to Varys's (and Illyrio's) plans for Aegon. Wouldn't there be evidence of an established trust between him and Varys? If the promise to Lyanna was to look after her son, then he must have at least been complicit in the plan to smuggle him out of Westeros to Essos? Why did it need to be Essos and not somewhere Ned could have properly kept track of him? (I mean, if I were Ned and I needed to hide a baby I couldn't take home and pass off as my own, I know who I'd trust to take and look after him and it isn't Varys...)

At least if I could see something textually then I could think about it, debate it and wonder if that could be what is implied or if it is connected to someone else.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

1 hour ago, Darion Storm said:

I wonder why people are so intent on these convoluted alternatives. They’re all threadbare and go against established facts but still they cling onto them.

'Cos we've been waiting six plus years for the next book (and still no publication date in sight), and some of us snapped.

[maudisdottir]

2 hours ago, Faera said:

(I mean, if I were Ned and I needed to hide a baby I couldn't take home and pass off as my own, I know who I'd trust to take and look after him and it isn't Varys...)

Considering when Ned first encountered Varys on arriving in KL, his thoughts were:

Quote

The councillor Ned liked least, the eunuch Varys, accosted him the moment he entered.

...

"Your gods have heard you" Ned replied, cool yet polite.

Varys is the last person Ned would turn to in order to secretly hide a child of Ned's own blood. All of these baby-swap scenarios involving Ned/Varys/Darry/Dany/Jon/FAegon all hinge on Ned scheming with Varys for some ridiculous reason. Yet in Ned's own thoughts, Varys is untrustworthy and unlikeable.

[Angel Eyes]

On the OP: How long does it take to ride from King's Landing to Dorne?

[Faera]

3 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

'Cos we've been waiting six plus years for the next book (and still no publication date in sight), and some of us snapped.

Aha, only some? 

50 minutes ago, maudisdottir said:

Varys is the last person Ned would turn to in order to secretly hide a child of Ned's own blood. All of these baby-swap scenarios involving Ned/Varys/Darry/Dany/Jon/FAegon all hinge on Ned scheming with Varys for some ridiculous reason. Yet in Ned's own thoughts, Varys is untrustworthy and unlikeable.

Exactly. I mean, if passing the baby off as his own absolutely wasn't an option and he had to entrust the baby to another, I think Howland is a much more plausible bet.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

3 hours ago, Faera said:

Aha, only some? 

Exactly. I mean, if passing the baby off as his own absolutely wasn't an option and he had to entrust the baby to another, I think Howland is a much more plausible bet.

Agreed but let the 7 save us if we get another child of age with Jon/Dany/Aegon to debate over. 

[maudisdottir]

4 hours ago, Faera said:

Aha, only some? 

Exactly. I mean, if passing the baby off as his own absolutely wasn't an option and he had to entrust the baby to another, I think Howland is a much more plausible bet.

Not only is Howland someone that Ned trusts and respects, he also happens to live in an area that’s hostile and confusing to outsiders.

But no, Ned kills the KG then takes baby Jon/Dany/Faegon over to the enemy camp and offloads them without another thought. That makes much more sense than passing the child off as his own bastard or sending it to Greywater Watch.

[Faera]

3 hours ago, maudisdottir said:

Not only is Howland someone that Ned trusts and respects, he also happens to live in an area that’s hostile and confusing to outsiders.

But no, Ned kills the KG then takes baby Jon/Dany/Faegon over to the enemy camp and offloads them without another thought. That makes much more sense than passing the child off as his own bastard or sending it to Greywater Watch.

Indeed. As far as I'm concerned, Howland's presence at the Tower of Joy pretty much puts a wrench in any theory that revolves around Ned having to hide a baby because he absolutely cannot pass it off as his own.

Howland is not only Ned's trusted friend but he was Lyanna's friend, too, and would likely wish to protect her baby off his own back. He is the Lord of Greywater Watch (a castle that can be moved according to his needs), located in the Neck (a place outsiders simply cannot navigate without the aid of a local), which is part of the North (so Ned could keep track of the baby if need be).

[maudisdottir]

Stop being so logical and using the books to back up your opinions 

[Bloodraven's Spider]

22 hours ago, Faera said:

I have no problem with Young Griff exhibiting Rhaegar-like qualities because, if he is genuinely Aegon and not an imposter, that's the idea. Him being Rhaegar's son is not what is in question. It's his mother that is supposed to be getting debated here. Connecting Aegon to the Starks would be more interesting to discuss.
 

I don't mind alternative theories because they are needed to keep us all thinking and our minds pumping. It's not fun if we just sit around rehashing the same ideas over and over.

That said, in regards to this theory, I'm still waiting for something more solid textually connecting Ned to Aegon, or Aegon to the Starks. Heck, even Ned to Varys's (and Illyrio's) plans for Aegon. Wouldn't there be evidence of an established trust between him and Varys? If the promise to Lyanna was to look after her son, then he must have at least been complicit in the plan to smuggle him out of Westeros to Essos? Why did it need to be Essos and not somewhere Ned could have properly kept track of him? (I mean, if I were Ned and I needed to hide a baby I couldn't take home and pass off as my own, I know who I'd trust to take and look after him and it isn't Varys...)

At least if I could see something textually then I could think about it, debate it and wonder if that could be what is implied or if it is connected to someone else.

I think the reason why he prefers swords to books is because he has Lyanna's blood in his veins and we know she was not your typical lady and the "wolfs blood." Im still on the R+L=A train no one has yet to put together a persuasive post. Ned had to send the babe away because it was a replica of Rhaegar and Robert's wrath was to hot for him to risk the babes life to live in Westeros.  Can we all least agree Cercei is a dumb whore lmap anmd the Kingsguard survived the TOJ?

[RhaegoTheUnborn]

19 minutes ago, Ser Insight said:

I think the reason why he prefers swords to books is because he has Lyanna's blood in his veins and we know she was not your typical lady and the "wolfs blood." Im still on the R+L=A train no one has yet to put together a persuasive post. Ned had to send the babe away because it was a replica of Rhaegar and Robert's wrath was to hot for him to risk the babes life to live in Westeros.  Can we all least agree Cercei is a dumb whore lmap anmd the Kingsguard survived the TOJ?

Yeah sure, bud.

[Megorova]

20 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

On the OP: How long does it take to ride from King's Landing to Dorne?

Between those two locations (Tower of Joy and King's Landing) it's better/faster to travel by sea.

Spoiler

"Long-haul average speed of horseback travel

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=426426

According to NASA, a horse walking goes 3 mph; trotting, 7 mph. However, they can't keep up a vigorous trotting pace all day every day, (see "Tevis Cup", above) because they need to rest as the lactic acid builds up in their muscles, same as with human distance runners, who also need to train for their one-day event.

The Mongols were famous for traveling long distances in a single day on their runty little ponies, but that was after generations of selection for distance-capable horses. Your Joe Average medieval travelers wouldn't have had that.

Remember that long-distance travel in the coaching days of the 19th century was only made possible by having fresh horses at stages--the same team of horses didn't trot or gallop from, say, Yorkshire to London.

So long-distance, non-racing horseback trips take place generally at walking speed."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horses_in_the_Middle_Ages

"The speed of travel varied greatly. Large retinues could be slowed by the presence of slow-paced carts and litters, or by servants and attendants on foot, and could rarely cover more than fifteen to twenty miles a day. Small mounted companies might travel 30 miles a day. However, there were exceptions: stopping only for a change of horses midway, Richard II of England once managed the 70 miles between Daventry and Westminster in a night."

Distance between KL and Tower of Joy is approximately 660 miles.

If Ned was traveling on horse, with a baby, then he had to move slow, and stop frequently. So 70 miles per day is out of the question. Most likely Ned also took with him Jon's wet nurse. Because how else was he going to feed the baby during their travel? 30 miles per day looks more realistic. If he traveled with speed between walking and trotting ((3 + 7)/2 = 5), 5 mph, for 6 hours per day, covering in one day 30 miles, then the journey would have lasted 22 days.

Average speed of medieval ship is 5 knots per hour (5 nautical miles per hour). But unlike horse, the ship can sail 24 hours per day, without stops.

Distance between KL and Tower of Joy by sea is 1535 nautical miles. + 30 miles from TofJ to shore of Boneway river, that leads to the Sea of Dorne. From TofJ they could have sent a raven or a messenger to Wyl castle, and hired a ship to meet them on river bank and sail them to KL.

So by sea route this journey will be (1 day by horses + (1535 / 5 /24 = 13 days) only 14 days long. And also less tyring for the baby and his companions.

By land 22 days, by sea 14 days.

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

Im still on the R+L=A train no one has yet to put together a persuasive post.

You mean, like the ones you couldn't be bothered to respond to?

2 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

Ned had to send the babe away because it was a replica of Rhaegar and Robert's wrath was to hot for him to risk the babes life to live in Westeros. 

Which is why he send the baby to Essos where he has no contacts and no means to keep an eye on him and never, ever, spares him a single thought in his PoVs, instead of entrusting him to the custody of Howland Reed who lives in an inaccessible area where no-one ever goes. Really?

2 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

Can we all least agree Cercei is a dumb whore

No. She doesn't sleep around that much and doesn't get paid.

 

2 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

 anmd the Kingsguard survived the TOJ?

No. Out of seven against three, only two lived to ride away, and GRRM confirmed that Ned and Howland were the only two men to leave ToJ.

[Faera]

2 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

Im still on the R+L=A train no one has yet to put together a persuasive post.

You mean a persuasive post disproving R+L=A to you? With all due respect, it is not anyone here's job to prove a negative to you. 

I'm still awaiting some textual evidence linking Aegon to the Starks or even just Ned, as I asked for several posts back. You wouldn't necessarily convince me of your theory but at least it would be something for us to talk about. 
 

2 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

Ned had to send the babe away because it was a replica of Rhaegar and Robert's wrath was to hot for him to risk the babes life to live in Westeros.

2

As I made suggested in my posts with @maudisdottir above, hiding the child with Howland makes more logistical sense on several fronts. I've always explained why - I'm not going to do it again.

If you are going down that route that Ned's promise to Lyanna was to look out for her son, demonstrate to me how he achieved this by sending Aegon to Essos did this? Being in Essos is not necessarily going to be safer (It wasn't for Daenerys or Viserys), especially if the truth came out, which Varys always intended for this kid regardless of where he came from! Ned just wouldn't do that; he would never have left a member of his own family so isolated and vulnerable.

I'm sorry but between your suggestion that Ashara Dayne faked her death and ran off to Essos with another woman's baby, or Howland Reed taking the baby to raise at Greywater Watch... yeah, Howland makes more sense. It also requires less running around and no bloody babyswaps.
 

2 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

Can we all least agree Cercei is a dumb whore lmap

20 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

No. She doesn't sleep around that much and doesn't get paid.

 

She also can't be dumb because she still has her tongue. Don't give Jaime any ideas, though. As he, funnily enough, muses to Illyn Payne in AFfC:

Quote

"I should have the tongues removed from all my friends," said Jaime as he filled their cups, "and from my kin as well. A silent Cersei would be sweet. Though I'd miss her tongue when we kissed."

 

Isn't it funny how random comments can remind you of quotes from the books? 

 

[Bloodraven's Spider]

4 hours ago, Faera said:

You mean a persuasive post disproving R+L=A to you? With all due respect, it is not anyone here's job to prove a negative to you. 

I'm still awaiting some textual evidence linking Aegon to the Starks or even just Ned, as I asked for several posts back. You wouldn't necessarily convince me of your theory but at least it would be something for us to talk about. 
 

As I made suggested in my posts with @maudisdottir above, hiding the child with Howland makes more logistical sense on several fronts. I've always explained why - I'm not going to do it again.

If you are going down that route that Ned's promise to Lyanna was to look out for her son, demonstrate to me how he achieved this by sending Aegon to Essos did this? Being in Essos is not necessarily going to be safer (It wasn't for Daenerys or Viserys), especially if the truth came out, which Varys always intended for this kid regardless of where he came from! Ned just wouldn't do that; he would never have left a member of his own family so isolated and vulnerable.

I'm sorry but between your suggestion that Ashara Dayne faked her death and ran off to Essos with another woman's baby, or Howland Reed taking the baby to raise at Greywater Watch... yeah, Howland makes more sense. It also requires less running around and no bloody babyswaps.
 

She also can't be dumb because she still has her tongue. Don't give Jaime any ideas, though. As he, funnily enough, muses to Illyn Payne in AFfC:

Isn't it funny how random comments can remind you of quotes from the books? 

 

The babe needs to leave westeros because more than 1 individual knows of its existence. Ned (obviously) Howland. 99% Varys knows about this babe and the wet nurse. Plus the Kingsguard (where did george say they were dead?) 

[acwill07]

LOL at people who are still fighting R+L=J.  It's hilarious at this point and it's wishful thinking.  

[Angel Eyes]

15 hours ago, acwill07 said:

LOL at people who are still fighting R+L=J.  It's hilarious at this point and it's wishful thinking.  

And then GRRM takes the readers in a different direction. It’ll be funny if R+L does not =J.

[Faera]

16 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

The babe needs to leave westeros because more than 1 individual knows of its existence.

So? That doesn’t make an iota of difference to what I said. It isn't about how many people know - it's about who knows and where their loyalties lie. The only difference is you have placed the baby in a position where Ned cannot protect it himself. Arranging to ship the baby safely out of Westeros and set him up safely in Essos (as place Ned doesn't appear to know much about nor is there any indication he has visited) takes more planning and adds to the risk of more people outside of the inner circle who Ned cannot trust finding out about it.
 

16 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

99% Varys knows about this babe

It is certainly possible he was the one who told Ned where Rhaegar was keeping Lyanna, but it is not the only option. There is no reason to believe he ever knew a living baby came out of that Tower, though. 

16 hours ago, Ser Insight said:

Plus the Kingsguard (where did george say they were dead?) 

I'm not sure off the top of my head whether there is an interview somewhere stating it plain since it’s been a while I went fishing in the ‘So Spake Martin’ pond or scouted YT for Q&As he’s done, but it is made plain in the books:

 

Quote

It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed. He did not think it omened well that he should dream that dream again after so many years. — Eddard 10, A Game of Thrones

 

5

I know people like to think that every day is “Opposite Day” when it comes to the books when it suits fans but there really is no reason at the moment to believe Ned is lying about this so far. If you want to argue the Kingsguard lived, you are welcome to do so — but, and I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face, try and find a quote from the text. The A Search of Ice and Fire database makes it so much easier to double check quotes and moments you remember but aren't sure how they went, aha.

Now I know some fans wet themselves a little because Mance was a good longsword fighter against Jon in ADwD and that made them exclaim “OMG! Must be Arthur Dayne!” as if he is the only person allowed to be skilled with a two-handed longsword in the whole of T7K, but it's could as easily be a red herring as it is a seed of evidence.

[RhaegoTheUnborn]

 

He'll never respond with quotes from the text, because for many of his views, there aren't any text from the books which support them. He's been asked repeatedly to simply provide text which supports his theory and the many facets of said theory, and it still hasn't been done, instead we're answered with his version of facts.