Military Strengths and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

eh? When did this happen? I hope this is not in reference to Bitterbridge because there is no chance that 10k died in that fracas and certainly not 30k. 

Where did those men go then? How many did Tarly kill? I can see him sparing some troops whose lords followed Stannis but he definitely killed Florent troops, who are goodkin to not only Stannis but also him. He would also kill Stormlanders because he knows they are now Stannis' men. Lower the number he killed, lower the amount of possible Stormlanders.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

References to the Rebellion seem a bit pointless. So Dorne sent 10k men. Well, between the North, Riverlands, Vale and Stormlands the rebels had around 35k men at the Trident. It seems therefore that around 10k was the average contribution of each kingdom. I'm sure no one is suggesting that the North or the Vale for that matter has a strength of 10k men.

Do not forget though; Stormlands at the start of the Rebellion was divided and Stormlanders saw many battles, both fighting amongst themselves and later, against other loyalists. Roose loses  ~5000 men If we dion't count the Freys. If the defeat suffered by Roose, who retreated in good order, is any indication, then by the time Ruby Ford happened there would be few Stormlanders due to all the infighting, defeat at Ashford and then battle of the bells if there was any significant Stormlander presence was left by that time, which I think not due to Connington being able to occupy the walled town of Stoney Sept.

Vale also saw some infighting, though nothing serious compared to Stormlands.

I don't have any idea on Riverlands, few were Royalists and Freys stayed idle, but I think North didn't contribute too much in RR simply due to time constraints. Remember how It takes sometime for Robb to gather even an army of 12K at Winterfell and then another 7,5K in MC. Eddard seemed to have not even that much time so his army would be even smaller than Robb's unless we are told otherwise.

 

On Royalists, we know 10K of that 40K is Dornish, rest are Riverlander and perhaps Stormlander survivors from earlier battles, which wouldn't be many. Crownlands we know to be not strong in military and also has seen fighting, again wouldn't be too many. Majority of that 30K must have been from the Reach, which, by the way, has also seen some fighting.

On Reach: We have no idea how many were sieging Storm's End but if the sieges of it we see during and after Wot5K is any indication, there would be thousands sieging it. Remember even with ~20K men Stannis' commanders expect thousands to die if they siege Storm's End and Mace Tyrell's second siege of it has half the Tyrell force with him. The siege during Rebellion must also had a close number to these.

[Bernie Mac]

28 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Where did those men go then? How many did Tarly kill? I can see him sparing some troops whose lords followed Stannis but he definitely killed Florent troops, who are goodkin to not only Stannis but also him. He would also kill Stormlanders because he knows they are now Stannis' men. Lower the number he killed, lower the amount of possible Stormlanders

Here is what GRRM has said about Bitterbridge

 

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/After_Renly

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It would be hugely overstating to say there was a battle, but there was definitely much confusion and conflict when word reached them of Renly's death. At that point -- and in the days that followed, as rival envoys began to arrive -- Renly's foot ceased to be a whole and became more a gathering of feudal levies, each of which had to make its own decision as to what to do now. Presume some fighting. Presume that a lot of people just decided this might be a swell time to go home. But most of them ultimately wound up with the Tyrell/Lannister alliance.

So the idea of 10k casualties (at a minimum) is ludicrous. That would make it the bloodiest battle in the war of the five kings and there is no reason to consider it as such.

1,000 casualties seems like a high number for Bitterbridge. 

[Corvo the Crow]

39 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Here is what GRRM has said about Bitterbridge

 

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/After_Renly

So the idea of 10k casualties (at a minimum) is ludicrous. That would make it the bloodiest battle in the war of the five kings and there is no reason to consider it as such.

1,000 casualties seems like a high number for Bitterbridge. 

Right, so most of those men weren't killed but even if Randyl didn't kill those mean, they have never arrived to King's Landing. Cause of it may be (and is, according to that SSM) different, yes, but the outcome is nevertheless same. Whether they are killed or just decide to leave, they never arrive at King's Landing.

Also even if 10K were killed, it wouldn't be considered as battle, Tarly is said to put them to the sword, implying no battle.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

One has to wonder how many fighters Skagos could raise if they decided to join the war. While it's a small Island they did have success against the Starks, and one would presume their banner men, during the reign of King Daeron. Also it's been a very long summer so perhaps they had population spike. Could we see Rickon on the back of Shaggy with 10,000 thousand Skagosi behind him all mounted on unicorns? 

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

One has to wonder how many fighters Skagos could raise if they decided to join the war. While it's a small Island they did have success against the Starks, and one would presume their banner men, during the reign of King Daeron. Also it's been a very long summer so perhaps they had population spike. Could we see Rickon on the back of Shaggy with 10,000 thousand Skagosi behind him all mounted on unicorns? 

Skagos is not a small island. It is bigger than Scotland. It is rather far North, though, but it is maybe 3 times bigger than Bear Island at the same latitude, and on the warmer side of the continent. So I would say that conservatively Skagos can raise at least 3 times as many men as Bear Island.

So maybe 3000 would be a reasonable minimum estimate.

[Corvo the Crow]

7 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

One has to wonder how many fighters Skagos could raise if they decided to join the war. While it's a small Island they did have success against the Starks, and one would presume their banner men, during the reign of King Daeron. Also it's been a very long summer so perhaps they had population spike. Could we see Rickon on the back of Shaggy with 10,000 thousand Skagosi behind him all mounted on unicorns? 

Well it's probably in a harsh climate and we don't know the geography of the island either but we have some knowledge on other islands;

Islands of the Gullet has fewer than 1500 men, with Velaryons and Celtigars having hundreds.

Velaryons are stronger than Tarths

Theon Stark killed 3000 Sistermen fighters but also take into account this was a battle fought in their hometurf.

Iron Islands have roughly 15000 men and we know a great many of their men go to war, as Theon sees boys who crew some of those ships.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

Not that this thread gets much attention for the moment, but after a couple of weeks or so I'll no longer be able to update it should any new information surfaces. I think I've done a good enough job summarizing known information so far, so hopefuly it will be of use in the next iteration of this thread.

[Corvo the Crow]

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From Maidenpool had come Lord Mooton, from Raventree Lord Blackwood, from Duskendale Lord Darklyn. The royal demenses about King's Landing sent forth Hayfords, Rosbys, Stokeworths, Masseys, and the king's own sworn swords, led by three knights of the Kingsguard and stiffened by three hundred Raven's Teeth with tall white weirwood bows. Mad Danelle Lothston herself rode forth in strength from her haunted towers at Harrenhal, clad in black armor that fit her like an iron glove, her long red hair streaming. The light of the rising sun glittered off the points of five hundred lances and ten times as many spears. The night's grey banners were reborn in half a hundred gaudy colors. And above them all flew two regal dragons on night-black fields: the great three-headed beast of King Aerys I Targaryen, red as fire, and a white winged fury breathing scarlet flame. Not Maekar after all, Dunk knew, when he saw those banners. The banners of the Prince of Summerhall showed four three-headed dragons, two and two, the arms of the fourth-born son of the late King Daeron II Targaryen. A single white dragon announced the presence of the King's Hand, Lord Brynden Rivers.

This isn't giving out much information, and none of these houses would have joined with all their strength but, we know that Duskendale and Maidenpool had 3000 men together during conquest, so we can at least say the other houses in this list together would have a lot more than 2500 men when put together. We also know from Princess and the Queen and from chapters about KL's defense that Crownlands doesn't have much man power and Masseys are also not a powerful house, with Aegon the Conqueror having fewer than 1500 men, Masseys included.

[Bernie Mac]

On 03/01/2018 at 8:52 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Skagos is not a small island. It is bigger than Scotland. It is rather far North, though, but it is maybe 3 times bigger than Bear Island at the same latitude, and on the warmer side of the continent. So I would say that conservatively Skagos can raise at least 3 times as many men as Bear Island.

How is it on the warmer side of the continent? It is placed on the Shivering Sea, so I'm not sure just how much warmer it is supposed to be. It is also not the same latitude. The entire of Bear Island is below the most southern part of Skagos. 

[Corvo the Crow]

I've posted these in the previous thread but never got to break it down, so I'm posting them again.

 

On Riverlands, during Dance of Dragons

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Roddy the Ruin and his Winter Wolves had joined with Forrest Frey, Lord of the Crossing, and Red Robb Rivers, known as the Bowman of Raventree. The northmen numbered two thousand, Frey commanded two hundred knights and thrice as many foot, Rivers brought three hundred archers to the fray. And scarce had Lord Lefford halted to confront the foe in front of him when more enemies appeared to the south, where Longleaf the Lionslayer and a ragged band of survivors from the earlier battles had been joined by the Lords Bigglestone, Chambers, and Perryn.

...

More rivermen turned up the next day, led by Ser Garibald Grey, Lord Jon Charlton, and the new Lord of Raventree, the eleven-year-old Benjicot Blackwood. With their numbers augmented by these fresh levies, the queen’s men agreed that the time had come to attack. “Best make an end to these lions before the dragons come,” said Roddy the Ruin.

The bloodiest land battle of the Dance of the Dragons began the next day, with the rising of the sun. In the annals of the Citadel it is known as the Battle by the Lakeshore, but to those men who lived to tell of it, it was always the Fishfeed.

Attacked from three sides, the westermen were driven back foot by foot into the waters of the Gods Eye. Hundreds died there, cut down whilst fighting in the reeds; hundreds more drowned as they tried to flee. By nightfall two thousand men were dead, amongst them many notables, including Lord Frey, Lord Lefford, Lord Bigglestone, Lord Charlton, Lord Swyft, Lord Reyne, Ser Clarent Crakehall, and Ser Tyler Hill, the Bastard of Lannisport. The Lannister host was shattered and slaughtered, but at such cost that young Ben Blackwood, the boy Lord of Raventree, wept when he saw the heaps of the dead. The most grievous losses were suffered by the northmen, for the Winter Wolves had begged the honor of leading the attack, and had charged five times into the ranks of Lannister spears. More than two thirds of the men who had ridden south with Lord Dustin were dead or wounded.

...

Four days out of Harrenhall, the attacks began. Archers hid amongst the trees, picking off outriders and stragglers with their longbows. Men died. Men fell behind the rearguard and were never seen again. Men fled, abandoning their shields and spears to fade into the woods. Men went over to the enemy. In the village commons at Crossed Elms, another of the ghastly feasts was found. Familiar with such sights by now, Ser Criston’s outriders grimaced and rode past, paying no heed to the rotting dead … until the corpses sprang up and fell upon them. A dozen died before they realized it had all been a ploy.

All this was but prelude, for the Lords of the Trident had been gathering their forces. When Ser Criston left the lake behind, striking out overland for the Blackwater, he found them waiting atop a stony ridge; three hundred mounted knights in armor, as many longbowmen, three thousand archers, three thousand ragged rivermen with spears, hundreds of northmen brandishing axes, mauls, spiked maces, and ancient iron swords. Above their heads flew Queen Rhaenyra’s banners.

The battle that followed was as one-sided as any in the Dance. Lord Roderick Dustin raised a warhorn to his lips and sounded the charge, and the queen’s men came screaming down the ridge, led by the Winter Wolves on their shaggy northern horses and the knights on their armored destriers. When Ser Criston was struck down and fell dead upon the ground, the men who had followed him from Harrenhal lost heart. They broke and fled, casting aside their shields as they ran. Their foes came after, cutting them down by the hundreds.

 

 

We have 1100 Rivermen from Red Robb Rivers and Forrest Frey And an unkonwn amount from Longleaf's survivors, Bigglestone, Chambers and Perryn. After that Grey, Charlton( a Frey Vassal now, perhaps also then) and Blackwood arrive, 2000 men die in battle, which is the bloodiest one of Dance of the Dragons.

 

After this battle of 2000 dead, we have 6600 Rivermen left. Northmen suffered the most grievous losses we are told, but I think it is by percentage of men lost and not the number lost.

 

Since This is the bloodiest battle of Dance of the Dragons, the battle( at the Red Fork) Longleaf survived obviously had fewer than 2000 lost.

 

6600 + 2000 (if all dead in Fishfeed were Rivermen) + 2000 (if Red Fork was equally high in casualties and all were Rivermen)= 10600 is the highest number we get connected to Rivermen. Obviously they suffered far less casualties than that 4000 with Northmen and Westerlanders also losing many men. We don't have much to narrow it further but a total of 7500 or so Rivermen raised seems a good enough estimation.

 

From this, maybe we can compare it to the current numbers; Freys have 1000 horse and 3000 foot in War of the Five Kings and starts with 200 horse and 600 foot in Dance of the Dragons with Lord Charlton, currently a Frey vassal (and perhaps also then) bringing more men.

 

[Bernie Mac]

16 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

From this, maybe we can compare it to the current numbers; Freys have 1000 horse and 3000 foot in War of the Five Kings and starts with 200 horse and 600 foot in Dance of the Dragons with Lord Charlton, currently a Frey vassal (and perhaps also then) bringing more men.

 

This is not the start of the war for the Riverlands.

West of Harrenhal, fighting continued in the riverlands as the Lannister host slogged onward. The age and infirmity of their commander, Lord Lefford, had slowed their march to a crawl, but as they neared the western shores of the Gods Eye, they found a huge new army athwart their path.

It is unclear how long the Freys had been fighting at this point but the world book makes it clear that Lord Frey was an early supporter 

It was during the early days of the Dance that Prince Daemon Targaryen led Queen Rhaenyra's forces to a bloodless victory at Harrenhal, seizing the castle and making it a rallying place for her supporters. There were many such supporters in the riverlands, who rose in their thousands and joined the prince's host in Rhaenyra's name. Notable amongst them was the puissant knight, Lord Forrest Frey, who had once been a suitor for Rhaenyra's hand.

 

It should also be pointed out that Dragons would limit the size of armies as no Lord would want his entire force all gathered together and see a Field of Fire mkII. Lords would be more conservative with their numbers. 

[John Doe]

I'd argue that the Tyrells have far fewer men. Most of their strength, combined with that of the Stormlands, doesn't even match the 100 000. Even if there are considerable Reach forces left, I doubt they are anywhere near as strong as the full strength of the Stormlands. 

 

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 According to Loras, Willas and Garlan could raise another 20000 within a month and according to Sam there are thousands of men protecting Oldtown.

Where does he say that? If it's after ASOS, Mace has already sent half his army back to the Reach, which explains how he could raise them again so quickly.

 

To prove my point: 

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Garlan the Gallant had taken half the Tyrell strength back to Highgarden, and his lady mother and grandmother had gone with him. The other half had marched south with Mace Tyrell and Mathis Rowan to invest Storm's End.

A Feast for Crows - Jaime II

 

Otherwise I think your list is great.

[Corvo the Crow]

17 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

This is not the start of the war for the Riverlands.

West of Harrenhal, fighting continued in the riverlands as the Lannister host slogged onward. The age and infirmity of their commander, Lord Lefford, had slowed their march to a crawl, but as they neared the western shores of the Gods Eye, they found a huge new army athwart their path.

It is unclear how long the Freys had been fighting at this point but the world book makes it clear that Lord Frey was an early supporter 

It was during the early days of the Dance that Prince Daemon Targaryen led Queen Rhaenyra's forces to a bloodless victory at Harrenhal, seizing the castle and making it a rallying place for her supporters. There were many such supporters in the riverlands, who rose in their thousands and joined the prince's host in Rhaenyra's name. Notable amongst them was the puissant knight, Lord Forrest Frey, who had once been a suitor for Rhaenyra's hand.

 

It should also be pointed out that Dragons would limit the size of armies as no Lord would want his entire force all gathered together and see a Field of Fire mkII. Lords would be more conservative with their numbers. 

That army (it's remnants) is included in that count. But you reminded me that Mootons are absent in that count with their hundred knights.

[Corvo the Crow]

15 hours ago, John Doe said:

I'd argue that the Tyrells have far fewer men. Most of their strength, combined with that of the Stormlands, doesn't even match the 100 000. Even if there are considerable Reach forces left, I doubt they are anywhere near as strong as the full strength of the Stormlands. 

I'm not sure, do you mean Tyrells without their major lords? Then yes, I'd agree.

For the rest of the post, even if it was as such, Mace has half the army, some are lost to Bitterbridge and King's Landing and Tarlyl also has some, possibly those that went with Stannis serving as penal units since we also see Stormlanders among the men he commanded. So if that 20000 were half of Mace and Garlan's then there would still be a lot more than 40000 from Reach without the casualties in King's Landing, those leaving for Stannis and those leaving or dying in Bitterbridge included. Easily 50000-60000  perhaps even more. But I don't think such is the case, as from the quotes below.

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"She's leaving," he insisted. "Mace is taking half the Tyrell strength to Storm's End, and the other half will be going back to the Reach with Ser Garlan to make good his claim on Brightwater. A few more days, and the only roses left in King's Landing will be Margaery and her ladies and a few guardsmen."

"And Ser Loras. Or have you forgotten your Sworn Brother?"

AFFC Cersei III Chapter 12; Jaime II is Chapter 16

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"Truly?" said the queen, all innocence. "Why then, your brave brothers had best roust them off those rocks, and quickly."

"How would the queen suggest they accomplish that, without sufficient ships?" asked Ser Loras. "Willas and Garlan can raise ten thousand men within a fortnight and twice that in a moon's turn, but they cannot walk on water, Your Grace."

AFFC Cersei VII Chapter 32
 

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House FLORENT

SER COLIN, castellan at Brightwater Keep,

ALEKYNE attainted Lord of Brightwater, fled to Oldtown to seek refuge at the Hightower.

 

AFFC Appendix.

So Alekyne Florent has fled but Ser Colin is still listed as the Castellan. I think this should mean that Garlan is yet to take Brightwater. Since we don't get informed on Brightwater being taken, he possibly got word of the Shield Islands on his way and he may or may not be sieging Brightwater with his current army.

 

Though it isn't much, there's also this to perhaps get an idea; Karstarks start with 2300 men They later send some 200 to Winterfell, and later send another ~450 to Stannis, meaning they could gather some 3000 troops but only sent 2300. If the Reach worked with the same percentages, that 20000 men to the first host is ~ 700 to Karstark's 2300, it would mean ~85K men in total or ~65K men in first host.

 

 

[John Doe]

11 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I'm not sure, do you mean Tyrells without their major lords? Then yes, I'd agree.

For the rest of the post, even if it was as such, Mace has half the army, some are lost to Bitterbridge and King's Landing and Tarlyl also has some, possibly those that went with Stannis serving as penal units since we also see Stormlanders among the men he commanded. So if that 20000 were half of Mace and Garlan's then there would still be a lot more than 40000 from Reach without the casualties in King's Landing, those leaving for Stannis and those leaving or dying in Bitterbridge included. Easily 50000-60000  perhaps even more. But I don't think such is the case, as from the quotes below.

AFFC Cersei III Chapter 12; Jaime II is Chapter 16

AFFC Cersei VII Chapter 32
 

AFFC Appendix.

So Alekyne Florent has fled but Ser Colin is still listed as the Castellan. I think this should mean that Garlan is yet to take Brightwater. Since we don't get informed on Brightwater being taken, he possibly got word of the Shield Islands on his way and he may or may not be sieging Brightwater with his current army.

 

Though it isn't much, there's also this to perhaps get an idea; Karstarks start with 2300 men They later send some 200 to Winterfell, and later send another ~450 to Stannis, meaning they could gather some 3000 troops but only sent 2300. If the Reach worked with the same percentages, that 20000 men to the first host is ~ 700 to Karstark's 2300, it would mean ~85K men in total or ~65K men in first host.

 

 

60 000 for the Reach seems to be a much closer estimate then 100 k+. Let's say the had something between 60 and 70 k at Bitterbridge (which, combined with the estimated  20k from the Stormlands would account for roughly 90k). The casualties they took can't be too big, it's unlikely Randyll killed thousands of men and by taking Stannis by surprise combined with their huge numerical advantage (I mean, they still had Tywin's 15- 20k too) they couldn't have lost more than a few thousand. So that brings us to a maximum of 60 k. Even if divided evenly between Mace, Randyll and Garlan that would mean Garlan took 20 k to the Reach, which is exactly the number Loras says his brother can gather. 

Even with  a few more thousand men from Oldtown and other locations, I think the absolute maximum strength of the Reach would be 80k, and possibly lower. For example, if the army at Bitterbridge was more in the 80k range or if the Stormlands have more men than we expect the numbers for the Reach would  have to be much lower.

Btw, you have to remember that the Karstarks are already at the point where the harvest is rotting on the fields, and that's just with the men Rickard Karstark himself took south. If the Reach used the same percentages, they wouldn't be able to feed themselves at all.

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 Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

7 hours ago, John Doe said:

60 000 for the Reach seems to be a much closer estimate then 100 k+. Let's say the had something between 60 and 70 k at Bitterbridge (which, combined with the estimated  20k from the Stormlands would account for roughly 90k). The casualties they took can't be too big, it's unlikely Randyll killed thousands of men and by taking Stannis by surprise combined with their huge numerical advantage (I mean, they still had Tywin's 15- 20k too) they couldn't have lost more than a few thousand. So that brings us to a maximum of 60 k. Even if divided evenly between Mace, Randyll and Garlan that would mean Garlan took 20 k to the Reach, which is exactly the number Loras says his brother can gather. 

Even with  a few more thousand men from Oldtown and other locations, I think the absolute maximum strength of the Reach would be 80k, and possibly lower. For example, if the army at Bitterbridge was more in the 80k range or if the Stormlands have more men than we expect the numbers for the Reach would  have to be much lower.

Btw, you have to remember that the Karstarks are already at the point where the harvest is rotting on the fields, and that's just with the men Rickard Karstark himself took south. If the Reach used the same percentages, they wouldn't be able to feed themselves at all.

 

Casualties during King's Landing is several thousand men at arms, some six hundred knights and about fifty lords.

Renly had 80k or so with him and another 10k with mace after all is said and done, Tyrion tells to Oberyn there are 50-60-70K Roses, he doesn't know how much left but they are still too many. This 50-70K is what's left of the 90k total after king's landing and Bitterbridge.Tarly may not have killed too many men but this is what's left and with the quote from SSM @Bernie Mac provided above, it doesn't mean all not present after Bitterbridge is dead, some have just left.

If Renly's 90k host had 20k Stormlanders (not all of them joined btw), he'd have 70k or so Reachmen and this is before all the Reachmen have joined. Renly was slowly marching towards King's Landing with Reach Lords joining him on the way, not unlike Robb gathering a portion of his army in Winterfell and the rest joining him either on the march or in MC some of those lords North of Bitterbridge are yet to join Renly.

True, but if Reach is taking a smaller portion of men than Karstark, then this means they have a much bigger percentage of men in "reserve" so actually this would increase their possible numbers and not decrease it.

[John Doe]

19 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Casualties during King's Landing is several thousand men at arms, some six hundred knights and about fifty lords.

Renly had 80k or so with him and another 10k with mace after all is said and done, Tyrion tells to Oberyn there are 50-60-70K Roses, he doesn't know how much left but they are still too many. This 50-70K is what's left of the 90k total after king's landing and Bitterbridge.Tarly may not have killed too many men but this is what's left and with the quote from SSM @Bernie Mac provided above, it doesn't mean all not present after Bitterbridge is dead, some have just left.

If Renly's 90k host had 20k Stormlanders (not all of them joined btw), he'd have 70k or so Reachmen and this is before all the Reachmen have joined. Renly was slowly marching towards King's Landing with Reach Lords joining him on the way, not unlike Robb gathering a portion of his army in Winterfell and the rest joining him either on the march or in MC some of those lords North of Bitterbridge are yet to join Renly.

True, but if Reach is taking a smaller portion of men than Karstark, then this means they have a much bigger percentage of men in "reserve" so actually this would increase their possible numbers and not decrease it.

I mean, Karstark already too all but the old men and the boys, so the reserves we would be talking about here would be too young or too old and probably not well-equipped. Hardly a game-changer, especially since every kingdom has them. 

Bitterbridge is already far in the North, most, if not all, Reach lords would have joined by then. All the major Tyrell vassals are situated west or south of Bitterbridge. The Florents are considered a major vassal and have 2k at most, so the lords north and east of Bitterbridge may not really change the numbers by a lot.  But I'll admit that 75k or even 80k in total (70k from Bitterbridge and Highgarden and another few thousand from other vassals) is a realistic estimate. Just not 100k.

[Corvo the Crow]

15 hours ago, John Doe said:

I mean, Karstark already too all but the old men and the boys, so the reserves we would be talking about here would be too young or too old and probably not well-equipped. Hardly a game-changer, especially since every kingdom has them. 

 

This is Karstarks' final raise's equipment

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Over his armor of plate and mail Ser Richard wore his quilted doublet, blazoned with three death's-head moths on a field of ash and bone. King Stannis walked beside him. Behind them, struggling to keep pace, Arnolf Karstark came hobbling, leaning on his blackthorn cane. Lord Arnolf had found them eight days past. The northman had brought a son, three grandsons, four hundred spears, two score archers, a dozen mounted lances, a maester, and a cage of ravens … but only enough provisions to sustain his own.

What Alys has to say on Karhold men

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"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war.

They are young and we aren't told anything on if they are armored or not but apart from that, they have their spears and bows, not farming tools so not badly equipped.

 

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Bitterbridge is already far in the North, most, if not all, Reach lords would have joined by then. All the major Tyrell vassals are situated west or south of Bitterbridge. The Florents are considered a major vassal and have 2k at most, so the lords north and east of Bitterbridge may not really change the numbers by a lot.  But I'll admit that 75k or even 80k in total (70k from Bitterbridge and Highgarden and another few thousand from other vassals) is a realistic estimate. Just not 100k.

I agree on only few to join during Bitterbridge would be left and 70K or so is Renly's first raise from Reach. But with Garlan and Willas' 20k men it would be 90k and with possibility of more men waiting North. Renly does mention Footlys among his supporters but we never see them so perhaps they were just waiting for Renly to march by Tumbleton to join him, along with many other, lords we don't know of. Their cavalry may have joined him earlier but I think it's poor planning to move your infantry back and forth pointlessly. An army marches on it's stomach after all

Florents control a very small portion of the Reach, their land is located at the headwaters of the Honeywine with Beesburys, a Hightower vassal close to the south.

Edit: But yes, those 20k men could be the younger ones. So I changed first post accordingly.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

Some more info on Reach;

Of the 55K men in field of fire, ~22k were Westerlanders and ~33k were Reachmen. This was the largest army ever seen on Westeros. Hightowers were absent from this.

After some three hundred years, we see Westerlands having half again as many men as they had in field of fire, so same increase should make sense for the much bigger and fertile Reach, meaning that Reach today perhaps has ~50k men, without Hightowers. Adding Hightowers who greatly outnumbered the 9k blacks in Tumbleton during the Dance where we see armies of much fewer men from most lords,70k+ seems to make sense for Reach.

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Some more info on Reach;

Of the 55K men in field of fire, ~22k were Westerlanders and ~33k were Reachmen. This was the largest army ever seen on Westeros. Hightowers were absent from this.

After some three hundred years, we see Westerlands having half again as many men as they had in field of fire, so same increase should make sense for the much bigger and fertile Reach, meaning that Reach today perhaps has ~50k men, without Hightowers. Adding Hightowers who greatly outnumbered the 9k blacks in Tumbleton during the Dance where we see armies of much fewer men from most lords,70k+ seems to make sense for Reach.

The Conquest numbers are an oft debated issue in the history of this topic. I have contended, and still contend, that the size of the Northern army compared to that of the West and Reach combined is quite remarkable during that period. Ran and others contend, without any direct evidence as far as I am concerned, that the North raised a far higher portion of its total strength to face Aegon than the Reach or the West did.

While this is possible, as is any proposal, there is no definitive evidence to support it, and even if we accept this for the sake of argument, we have no evidence by what percentage the mobilization of the various kingdoms varied.

For example, it is quite possible that even if the North tapped into more of its strength, it might only be 10% more, or 20% more. We simply don't know. Given that it is categorically stated that 55k was the largest army ever raised in Westeros up to that point (and it took the Reach and the West combined to achieve that), it seems conceivable that no single kingdom had raised more than say 40 or 45k before that point (with that kingdom obviously being the Reach, as the most populated).

In which case it is noteworthy that the North, despite its geographical and logistical mobilization difficulties, managed to raise 70% of the previous largest army raised by the Reach, and marched it all the  way to the Trident. This differs quite substantially from the ratios we see in the War of the Five Kings, where Robb raised maybe half of the total forces raised by the West, and less than a third of that raised by the Reach.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that the North matches the Reach in strength. But it does suggest that the North, at least during the time of the Conquest, was closer to the Reach in numbers, and matched (and possibly even exceeded) the West, in terms of their full potential.

Which might imply that the Reach has grown disproportionately during the Targaryen era, or that the North has a lot of men left in reserve, or a combination of both these two options.

As you know, my view has always been that the North can raise around 45k men, as unofficially endorsed by Martin for the RPG. Which would put them at least at 50% of the Reach's strength of around 90k. And on the same level as the Westerlands, more or less.