Military Strengths and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

Another note on military strength and population 

Sarnor at it's height had a population of millions(not tens of millions). Their tradition was men and women going to war together. In their battle against the Tothraki they had near a hundred thousand foot, twenty thousand horse and six  thousand  chariots which would have 2 people at least. So some 130000 fighters among a  population of less than 10 million.

Sarnori today have less than 20000 in Numbers in a single city, Saath.

Saath being a city can perhaps also help us on town sizes as well, roughly giving them an upper limit.

[Corvo the Crow]

More on North

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Davos II 

The Yard was teeming this afternoon. A woman was washing her smallclothes in Fishfoot's fountain and hanging them off his trident to dry. Beneath the arches of the peddler's colonnade the scribes and money changers had set up for business, along with a hedge wizard, an herb woman, and a very bad juggler. A man was selling apples from a barrow, and a woman was offering herring with chopped onions. Chickens and children were everywhere underfoot. The huge oak-and-iron doors of the Old Mint had always been closed when Davos had been in Fishfoot Yard before, but today they stood open. Inside he glimpsed hundreds of women, children, and old men, huddled on the floor on piles of furs. Some had little cookfires going.

Davos stopped beneath the colonnade and traded a halfpenny for an apple. "Are people living in the Old Mint?" he asked the apple seller. 

"Them as have no other place to live. Smallfolk from up the White Knife, most o' them. Hornwood's people too. With that Bastard o' Bolton running loose, they all want to be inside the walls. I don't know what his lordship means to do with all o' them. Most turned up with no more'n the rags on their backs."

Hundreds of women, children and OLD men, all of them refugees from Hornwood lands and White Knife, but no men. Where are the husbands and fathers? 

If they weren't off fighting the war, would Manderly need to conscript anyone able to hold a spear as long as they are at least five feet tall? 

[Universal Sword Donor]

11 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

More on North

Hundreds of women, children and OLD men, all of them refugees from Hornwood lands and White Knife, but no men. Where are the husbands and fathers? 

If they weren't off fighting the war, would Manderly need to conscript anyone able to hold a spear as long as they are at least five feet tall? 

Some context:

Neither Robb nor the Night's Watch learned that Dreadfort man had attacked Ser Rodrik and his host at Winterfell, and had burned castle and town. Does this then mean that nobody of Ser Rodrik's host could flee to tell the truth about the role of Ramsay Snow?

Most of the leaders of Ser Rodrik's host were slain, but a good many of the common soldiers survived and have doubtless straggled back to their villages and holdfasts, spreading tales as they go. Of course, the situation was confused enough so that the tales may disagree, even with each other...

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Some context:

Neither Robb nor the Night's Watch learned that Dreadfort man had attacked Ser Rodrik and his host at Winterfell, and had burned castle and town. Does this then mean that nobody of Ser Rodrik's host could flee to tell the truth about the role of Ramsay Snow?

Most of the leaders of Ser Rodrik's host were slain, but a good many of the common soldiers survived and have doubtless straggled back to their villages and holdfasts, spreading tales as they go. Of course, the situation was confused enough so that the tales may disagree, even with each other...

There are survivors, in every battle, yes but whether they are able to return is a different matter. If there were Manderly survivors returning, why they learn about the sacl only from a mute boy?

Also we see some Hornwood survivors as well, joining to Stannis. Whoever survived that battle didn't return to Hornwood and White Knife. 

A small addition: Manderly contribution of barges packed with knights and siege weapons would mean professional soldiers.

[Universal Sword Donor]

9 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

There are survivors, in every battle, yes but whether they are able to return is a different matter. If there were Manderly survivors returning, why they learn about the sacl only from a mute boy?

Also we see some Hornwood survivors as well, joining to Stannis. Whoever survived that battle didn't return to Hornwood and White Knife. 

A small addition: Manderly contribution of barges packed with knights and siege weapons would mean professional soldiers.

For sure, just meaning there were men but who knows where they ended up. Lords know I'd run away from Ramsay like a proclaimer

[Free Northman Reborn]

I will be honest. I think in general Martin just has a huge disconnect between the dramatic impact he wants to have with some of his portrayals, and the practical implications that would have on a society. The idea that the Northern armies we have seen to date (around 25k men in total) represents more than a small fraction of the overall population simply makes no sense.

Even if you ignore the realities of millions of smallfolk being required to produce such sized armies, Martin's own statements contradict this directly.

The Northern armies cannot represent all the able bodied men. Because Martin has said that the Ironborn are able to raise a much larger portion of their population to arms than the mainland kingdoms can, because on the mainland a large base of peasants supports a much smaller warrior class.

By default, therefore, if the Ironborn are raising a much larger percentage of their population to arms, then the mainland kingdoms are raising a much smaller percentage of their population to arms. Meaning large portions of the able bodied men on the mainland are NOT raised for war.

[Corvo the Crow]

30 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I will be honest. I think in general Martin just has a huge disconnect between the dramatic impact he wants to have with some of his portrayals, and the practical implications that would have on a society. The idea that the Northern armies we have seen to date (around 25k men in total) represents more than a small fraction of the overall population simply makes no sense.

Even if you ignore the realities of millions of smallfolk being required to produce such sized armies, Martin's own statements contradict this directly.

The Northern armies cannot represent all the able bodied men. Because Martin has said that the Ironborn are able to raise a much larger portion of their population to arms than the mainland kingdoms can, because on the mainland a large base of peasants supports a much smaller warrior class.

By default, therefore, if the Ironborn are raising a much larger percentage of their population to arms, then the mainland kingdoms are raising a much smaller percentage of their population to arms. Meaning large portions of the able bodied men on the mainland are NOT raised for war.

Agree. But GRRM is bad with numbers; I remember reading about someone showing him a 700 feet height for comparison with the wall. Apparently he wasn't expecting it to be that high.

Same should apply to other stuff

[Ran]

The logistics of the mainland armies vs. that of the ironborn reavers means that the mainland armies _can't_ raise equal percentages of forces compared to the ironborn. They need a much larger support tail. 

There are more able-bodied men. There are not enough of them to impress a substantial portion of them for military purposes _and_ have the rest keep them fed and supplied and otherwise supported effectively.  Stannis Baratheon's force depended on reaching its destination and winning victory to sustain itself -- once stuck in place, starvation sets in rapidly, whereas Bolton's force -- with the support of the Freys and Lady Dustin and so on -- is well-supplied and able to maintain itself in place.

In theory, there are 1 million able bodied men of fighting age in the North, but the enormous logistical cost of taking a portion and turning them solely to warfare is beyond what can be borne effectively. You can say these 1 million men can at least defend their homes, and that's true, but villages and holdfasts are easy pickings for those who _do_ have the logistical capacity to concentrate men into larger and mobile forces.

[Free Northman Reborn]

13 minutes ago, Ran said:

The logistics of the mainland armies vs. that of the ironborn reavers means that the mainland armies _can't_ raise equal percentages of forces compared to the ironborn. They need a much larger support tail. 

There are more able-bodied men. There are not enough of them to impress a substantial portion of them for military purposes _and_ have the rest keep them fed and supplied and otherwise supported effectively.  Stannis Baratheon's force depended on reaching its destination and winning victory to sustain itself -- once stuck in place, starvation sets in rapidly, whereas Bolton's force -- with the support of the Freys and Lady Dustin and so on -- is well-supplied and able to maintain itself in place.

In theory, there are 1 million able bodied men of fighting age in the North, but the enormous logistical cost of taking a portion and turning them solely to warfare is beyond what can be borne effectively. You can say these 1 million men can at least defend their homes, and that's true, but villages and holdfasts are easy pickings for those who _do_ have the logistical capacity to concentrate men into larger and mobile forces.

Indeed. So the idea that the Karstark, Umber or Hornwood lands are devoid of able bodied men because of the military losses in the low thousands suffered in each of these regions to date is preposterous.

[Ran]

47 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Indeed. So the idea that the Karstark, Umber or Hornwood lands are devoid of able bodied men because of the military losses in the low thousands suffered in each of these regions to date is preposterous.

Or the able-bodied men remaining are needed for the sustenance of their populations and cannot be mobilized.

[Free Northman Reborn]

13 minutes ago, Ran said:

Or the able-bodied men remaining are needed for the sustenance of their populations and cannot be mobilized.

Fully agree. If we stick with the 1% rule, then even if we just go with the initial force of 2300 prime soldiers they raised for Robb, that would suggest a Karstark population of around 230k people (men, women and children). That leaves about 227,000 people in the Karstark lands after the army was lost. Easily 50,000 of them would be able bodied men. They are just not mobilizable, because they are needed to work the fields and support the population.

That is a very different position to saying there were only 2300 able bodied men in all the Karstark lands, implying a total population of maybe 10,000 or thereabouts. Such a position is simply unrealistic. That's the fallacy I have been trying to correct for a long time.

[Corvo the Crow]

Well, what happens to all those able bodied men needed for sustenance of the population when winter comes? They are mostly just mouths to feed during winter so instead of old men going hunting, the old and the young could go on campaigns against the southrons. Which will also be the logical thing to do as they'll both be living off the enemy's lands and not (entirely) on their own stores and may gain riches and plunder and even land. Not to mention that south will also have better climate than the north, at least at the start of the winter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

29 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Well, what happens to all those able bodied men needed for sustenance of the population when winter comes? They are mostly just mouths to feed during winter so instead of old men going hunting, the old and the young could go on campaigns against the southrons. Which will also be the logical thing to do as they'll both be living off the enemy's lands and not (entirely) on their own stores and may gain riches and plunder and even land. Not to mention that south will also have better climate than the north, at least at the start of the winter.

Well, I don't really agree with the idea that able bodied men become useless mouths to feed in Winter. I'm sure that in an Alaskan winter able bodied men are pretty crucial to keep life going until summer comes. Whether it be to chop firewood, repair buildings after storms, clear snow out from entrance ways, go hunting, general physical labour or protecting the homes from wild animals or from criminals or other men out to steal their food resources, I reckon men are pretty crucial in winter too.

But I agree that what they will not be required for, is to work the fields. So in that respect you might see more men freed up for other endeavors, yes. But I don't see a situation where all men can go off to die and the women can then repopulate the North come spring, with only a small "breeding stock" of males left. That would not be a sustainable way of maintaining a population over the centuries.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Fully agree. If we stick with the 1% rule, then even if we just go with the initial force of 2300 prime soldiers they raised for Robb, that would suggest a Karstark population of around 230k people (men, women and children). That leaves about 227,000 people in the Karstark lands after the army was lost. Easily 50,000 of them would be able bodied men. They are just not mobilizable, because they are needed to work the fields and support the population.

That is a very different position to saying there were only 2300 able bodied men in all the Karstark lands, implying a total population of maybe 10,000 or thereabouts. Such a position is simply unrealistic. That's the fallacy I have been trying to correct for a long time.

I am stealing mobilizable

[Bernie Mac]

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

That is a very different position to saying there were only 2300 able bodied men in all the Karstark lands, implying a total population of maybe 10,000 or thereabouts. Such a position is simply unrealistic. That's the fallacy I have been trying to correct for a long time.

Have many people actually made that argument?

[Ran]

45 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Have many people actually made that argument?

I can't recall ever seeing the argument myself. I suppose there are people who've said that they envisioned Westeros has being a few hundred thousand people, but in general those turn out to be people who haven't thought about such things very much.

[Corvo the Crow]

16 hours ago, Ran said:

The logistics of the mainland armies vs. that of the ironborn reavers means that the mainland armies _can't_ raise equal percentages of forces compared to the ironborn. They need a much larger support tail. 

There are more able-bodied men. There are not enough of them to impress a substantial portion of them for military purposes _and_ have the rest keep them fed and supplied and otherwise supported effectively.  Stannis Baratheon's force depended on reaching its destination and winning victory to sustain itself -- once stuck in place, starvation sets in rapidly, whereas Bolton's force -- with the support of the Freys and Lady Dustin and so on -- is well-supplied and able to maintain itself in place.

In theory, there are 1 million able bodied men of fighting age in the North, but the enormous logistical cost of taking a portion and turning them solely to warfare is beyond what can be borne effectively. You can say these 1 million men can at least defend their homes, and that's true, but villages and holdfasts are easy pickings for those who _do_ have the logistical capacity to concentrate men into larger and mobile forces.

I am curious on your thoughts on Iron Islands' population; With two not so major lords absent we see fewer than 400 ships. 100 of them are ships of the iron fleet, comparable to smaller war galleys so 80-100 men the rest are longships, most of them 1/3 the size of an ironfleet ship. So it gives us 8000-10000 men from ironfleet and about the same number from the rest of the ships. This gives us a smaller number than what Robb was able to gather in a small time with not as tight a grip as say, Tywin. So with a much higher percentage they barely have a number close to the Young Wolf(emphasize on young), how many able bodied men would they have?

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Have many people actually made that argument?

Alys Karstark's comments to Jon, and the old men and green boys with Mors and Hother Umber are often referenced in these discussions as proof that those regions supposedly have no able bodied men left. I am very happy that such positions are now apparently being ridiculed and disavowed, as they should be.

 

[Ran]

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Alys Karstark's comments to Jon, and the old men and green boys with Mors and Hother Umber are often referenced in these discussions as proof that those regions supposedly have no able bodied men left. I am very happy that such positions are now apparently being ridiculed and disavowed, as they should be.

 

Both of their comments should always have been understood as both accurate in the sense that too many able-bodied men were taken to war in relation to the needs of the populace, putting a strain on the sustainability of the populace, and that these places were incapable of raising more such men for logistical reasons. 

Another way to look at it is that if you take away ten percent of the fittest male age cohort, well, that's a whole lot of vital manpower that has gone and which is not going to be replaced but through time. Medieval societies worked very close to its limits and disturbance of the limited labor surplus could have devastating consequences, as the extended warfare in England in the late 13th century shows with evidence of increased, widespread malnutrition as a consequence as just one example.

@Corvo the Crow

I think I have made estimates on the past that out the Iron Islands at something like 10% of the North. 

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

26 minutes ago, Ran said:

Both of their comments should always have been understood as both accurate in the sense that too many able-bodied men were taken to war in relation to the needs of the populace, putting a strain on the sustainability of the populace, and that these places were incapable of raising more such men for logistical reasons. 

Another way to look at it is that if you take away ten percent of the fittest male age cohort, well, that's a whole lot of vital manpower that has gone and which is not going to be replaced but through time. Medieval societies worked very close to its limits and disturbance of the limited labor surplus could have devastating consequences, as the extended warfare in England in the late 13th century shows with evidence of increased, widespread malnutrition as a consequence as just one example.

 

 

 

Yes. And in the North with its lower agricultural yield per hectare of farmland, and the resultant greater labor intensity of farming (more land has to be worked per unit of output) this impact would be even more severe than in more fertile areas.

Which is why I think a strong argument can be made that whatever the mobilization rate is in the South (whether it be 1% or 2%), it will be lower in the North. And this would translate into a higher Northern population for a given army size than would be required to raise the same sized army in the South. And this before the increased logistical costs of supporting an army over the distances involved in the North are considered, which would further reduce their effective mobilization rate.

Some people don't like this type of analysis and number crunching, or view it as a contrived attempt to boost Northern population numbers. But to those who spend years analyzing every aspect of this series and the worldbuilding that supports it, such a discussion should be both interesting and relevant.

In any case, I think it is very logical and really difficult to dispute on a rational basis. To use a hypothetical example, if the Stormlands can raise 30k men from a population of 3 million, then the North, given their more labor intensive agricultural system and higher logistical costs of raising and moving armies over long distances, can probably only mobilize 15-20k men from a similar sized population. So working backwards then, if the North can raise 35k men they must have a much larger population to support those 35k men, than a Southron kingdom which can raise the same sized army.

Give for example the Westerlands 5 million people and they can probably raise 50k-60k men from it. Give the North 5 million people and they can maybe only raise 35k from it. Or whatever the diffetential may be. The point is, the North will have a lower mobilization rate than the Stormlands, and even lower compared to wealthy, geographically small, demographically dense regions like the West.