Military Strengths and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

Since @Free Northman Reborn mentioned earlier that 1500 Freys that Arya sees may not be all the survivors of Green Fork, and Frey numbers may not be as high as I thought, I'll have another one on them.

We see 500 Frey Cavalry and 1500 Frey infantry going North, some of the infantry are very poorly equipped, in stark contrast to what we saw earlier

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A swollen red sun hung low against the western hills when the gates of the castle opened. The drawbridge creaked down, the portcullis winched up, and Lady Catelyn Stark rode forth to rejoin her son and his lords bannermen. Behind her came Ser Jared Frey, Ser Hosteen Frey, Ser Danwell Frey, and Lord Walder's bastard son Ronel Rivers, leading a long column of pikemen, rank on rank of shuffling men in blue steel ringmail and silvery grey cloaks.

Robb galloped out to meet her, with Grey Wind racing beside his stallion. "It's done," she told him. "Lord Walder will grant you your crossing. His swords are yours as well, less four hundred he means to keep back to hold the Twins.

These along with two thousand Freys besieging Riverrun made me think a lot of these Freys would be newly raised. But it may be that Lord Walder just sent off the worse portion of his infantry with Bolton.

Anyways; As always, Robb has 23500 with Freys, 1000 of this is MC and Twins Garrison. In Whispering Wood he has 6000 men, of this 5000-5500 would be his horse. Leaving 17000-17500 men to Bolton. Bolton would have 500-600 horse and near 2600 Frey infantry, let's take Freys as 2500 and horse as 500 for ease of calculation (and Freys weren't 3000 in the first place but near 3000). Roose has 14000-14500 Northman infantry. He has 10000 Northman remaining after Green Fork.10000/14500 = %69 survival rate 10000/14000 = %70 survival rate. Applying these to Freys' 2500 gives us 1725 and 1750 Frey survivors.

Conclusion, Freys may not have lost as many as I thought earlier and the guys we see could be just a portion of the survivors. They also may not have raised as high a number on their second time as I suggested earlier.

For their cavalry part; Robb has 3500 surviving cavalry. Taking his number as 5500 in whispering wood, and deducting the 1300 Freys and Karstarks now gone, he has 5/6 or %83 of his initial numbers. Since Freys were also in the West They would now have 830 Cavalry with same ratios.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

I have suggested that Umbers still had surviving infantry during Red Wedding, due to Arya seeing them with Mountain Clansmen and Karstark men; men who couldn't have been with Robb. This is just a small thing on who would have their command, since we get no mention of them.

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And when Lord Umber, who was called the Greatjon by his men and stood as tall as Hodor and twice as wide, threatened to take his forces home if he was placed behind the Hornwoods or the Cerwyns in the order of march, Robb told him he was welcome to do so. "And when we are done with the Lannisters," he promised, scratching Grey Wind behind the ear, "we will march back north, root you out of your keep, and hang you for an oathbreaker." Cursing, the Greatjon flung a flagon of ale into the fire and bellowed that Robb was so green he must piss grass. When Hallis Mollen moved to restrain him, he knocked him to the floor, kicked over a table, and unsheathed the biggest, ugliest greatsword that Bran had ever seen. All along the benches, his sons and brothers and sworn swords leapt to their feet, grabbing for their steel.

Well there it is, Greatjon has brothers who he could leave the command to, just like Rickard Karstark leaving command to his eldest.

[Universal Sword Donor]

22 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I have suggested that Umbers still had surviving infantry during Red Wedding, due to Arya seeing them with Mountain Clansmen and Karstark men; men who couldn't have been with Robb. This is just a small thing on who would have their command, since we get no mention of them.

Well there it is, Greatjon has brothers who he could leave the command to, just like Rickard Karstark leaving command to his eldest.

And they are most likely all dead or broken men somewhere in the RL. 

[Corvo the Crow]

Summary: Hornwood, Glover and Cerwyn had more than 1250 infantry each with Robb.

 

Banners and standards can tell a lot

 

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Theon studied their banners through Maester Luwin's Myrish lens tube. The Cerwyn battle-axe flapped bravely wherever he looked, and there were Tallhart trees as well, and mermen from White Harbor. Less common were the sigils of Flint and Karstark. Here and there he even saw the bull moose of the Hornwoods. But no Glovers, Asha saw to them, no Boltons from the Dreadfort, no Umbers come down from the shadow of the Wall. Not that they were needed. Soon enough the boy Cley Cerwyn appeared before the gates carrying a peace banner on a tall staff, to announce that Ser Rodrik Cassel wished to parley with Theon Turncloak.

...

Ser Rodrik shook his head. "Only vain, lad. Theon has always had too lofty an opinion of himself, I fear." The old man jabbed a finger at him. "Do not imagine that I need wait for Robb to fight his way up the Neck to deal with the likes of you. I have near two thousand men with me . . . and if the tales be true, you have no more than fifty."

 

It is from this quote I get a rough estimate on who had how many with Rodrick.

We know that Rodrick had 600 and Cley Cerwyn had 300

Cerwyn banners are everywhere with Tallhart and Manderly banners as well, but Flint and Karstark banners aren't as numerous with Hornwood banners present only here and there. So Hornwoods have very few men compared to others and Flints and Karstarks have fewer men than Tallharts and Manderlys which have as many, or near as many as the 300 of Cerwyns.

Using this:

A rough breakdown of Rodrick's army would be

600 Starks, 300 Cerwyns, 250-300 Manderlys and Tallharts, 150-200 Flints and Karstarks, 50-100 Hornwoods.

Which bring us to 2000 with highest numbers and 1750 with the lowest ones, all within range of Rodrick's statement of "near two thousand" if we add the few men Starks and Cerwyns may have lost against Cleftjaw.

 

Now with the importance of banners on determining numbers shown with an example, below will be another look into relative strength of the Northern houses in Robb's foot through them.

Below is Tyrion describing the Lannister army

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In the dawn light, the army of Lord Tywin Lannister unfolded like an iron rose, thorns gleaming.

His uncle would lead the center. Ser Kevan had raised his standards above the kingsroad. Quivers hanging from their belts, the foot archers arrayed themselves into three long lines, to east and west of the road, and stood calmly stringing their bows. Between them, pikemen formed squares; behind were rank on rank of men-at-arms with spear and sword and axe. Three hundred heavy horse surrounded Ser Kevan and the lords bannermen Lefford, Lydden, and Serrett with all their sworn retainers.

The right wing was all cavalry, some four thousand men, heavy with the weight of their armor. More than three quarters of the knights were there, massed together like a great steel fist. Ser Addam Marbrand had the command. Tyrion saw his banner unfurl as his standard-bearer shook it out; a burning tree, orange and smoke. Behind him flew Ser Flement's purple unicorn, the brindled boar of Crakehall, the bantam rooster of Swyft, and more.

...

The van was massing on the left. He saw the standard first, three black dogs on a yellow field. Ser Gregor sat beneath it, mounted on the biggest horse Tyrion had ever seen. Bronn took one look at him and grinned. "Always follow a big man into battle."

 

So he is able to see the banners in all the flanks.

 

And below is Roose's army, as seen through Tyrion's eyes.

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Gods be damned, look at them all, Tyrion thought, though he knew his father had more men on the field. Their captains led them on armored warhorses, standard-bearers riding alongside with their banners. He glimpsed the bull moose of the Hornwoods, the Karstark sunburst, Lord Cerwyn's battle-axe, and the mailed fist of the Glovers … and the twin towers of Frey, blue on grey. So much for his father's certainty that Lord Walder would not bestir himself. The white of House Stark was seen everywhere, the grey direwolves seeming to run and leap as the banners swirled and streamed from the high staffs. Where is the boy? Tyrion wondered.

Stark banners are seen everywhere, but that is to be expected as they are the liege lord of all the others (except Freys).

Disregarding the absence of mention of Bolton banners, who would be in the rear and Dustin ones which Barbrey sent as few as she dared, these are the houses the banners Tyrion is able to spot: Karstarks with near 2000 infantry, Freys with near 2600 and Cerwyn, Glover and Hornwood with unknown numbers. He isn't able to spot any Flints(of either lordly branch), Mormonts, Tallharts, Umbers, Ryswells, Slates, Lockes, Longs, Holts, Ashwoods, Woolfields and any others I fail to mention here, or were never mentioned, all with an unspecified amount of men. He also isn't able to spot Manderlys with 1250 men.

This should be hinting towards Cerwnys, Glovers and Hornwoods having more infantry(not necessarily overall more troops) than all the others not mentioned, including Manderlys with their 1250.

 

To further support this, we know Tallharts(400) and remnants of Karstark, Glover, Cerwyn and Hornwood were around 4000(Roose had 10000 Northman after Green Fork, had some 6000 after Duskendale) and Cerwyns and Hornwoods at least still have some men remaining with Roose, numbering in the low hundreds.

From the quote below, Harrion couldn't have had much more than 1300 in Duskendale even if Karstarks suffered no losses.

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"But to sell you he must keep you, and the riverlands are full of those who would gladly steal you away. Glover and Tallhart were broken at Duskendale, but remnants of their host are still abroad, with the Mountain slaughtering the stragglers. A thousand Karstarks prowl the lands south and east of Riverrun, hunting you.Elsewhere are Darry men left lordless and lawless, packs of four-footed wolves, and the lightning lord's outlaw bands. Dondarrion would gladly hang you and the goat together from the same tree.

So even after all the battling, there are 2300, perhaps more Hornwood, Cerwyn, Glover infantry in Duskendale and some Hornwood and Cerwyn with Roose (100 Hornwoods and 50-100 Cerwyns defending his rear and maybe some more going to Twins). Meaning even with all the casualties taken, they have on average 800 men.

 

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

And they are most likely all dead or broken men somewhere in the RL. 

You don't say...

[Bernie Mac]

7 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Summary: Hornwood, Glover and Cerwyn had more than 1250 infantry each with Robb.

I kind of doubt that, certainly not for all three of them.

 

We know that Robb was able to raise 12k at Wintfell from those three Houses, plus his own, the Boltons (around 2-3k), Karstark (2.3k), Umber, Mormont, Tallhart and the Mountain Clans. 

Now it stands to reason that the Starks supplied a similar amount to the Boltons and Karstarks. Maybe less, but we'd still be talking in the region of 2k meaning conservatively Stark, Bolton and Karstark alone make up at least 7k of the 12k assembled at Winterfell. For Hornwood, Glover and Cerywn to have those numbers, which does not even include their infantry, it would mean Umber, Mormont, Tallhart and the Mountain Clans supplied a combined number of less than 1k. 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

32 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I kind of doubt that, certainly not for all three of them.

 

We know that Robb was able to raise 12k at Wintfell from those three Houses, plus his own, the Boltons (around 2-3k), Karstark (2.3k), Umber, Mormont, Tallhart and the Mountain Clans. 

Now it stands to reason that the Starks supplied a similar amount to the Boltons and Karstarks. Maybe less, but we'd still be talking in the region of 2k meaning conservatively Stark, Bolton and Karstark alone make up at least 7k of the 12k assembled at Winterfell. For Hornwood, Glover and Cerywn to have those numbers, which does not even include their infantry, it would mean Umber, Mormont, Tallhart and the Mountain Clans supplied a combined number of less than 1k. 

 

My reasoning is there, but of course there is room for doubt. Could it be Manderlys were on the furthest right when Tyrion was on furthest left, therefore making them hard to spot? or they were on the reserves and acted as rearguard later on? Sure, it is possible.

But even after all their casualties and even if Harrion had all the Karstark strength from start with him these three houseswould  have on average 500-600 infantry in Duskendale (which takes place after a battle which reduces the 14500-15000 Northern men to 10000) so it isn't far fetched for them to have on average well over 1000 infantry at start. Especially when these houses are among the ones Tyrion is able to spot at a glance, indicating they are much more numerous than other houses, at least on the frontlines.

As for Umbers, Tallharts and Mountain Clans;

Tallhart banners are never seen until he takes his 400 men to Duskendale. He would have some other men of course, but they would be few enough to be lost among the larger hosts.

Mormonts would have fewer than Tallharts in their island and we see Alysanne having so few men that she isn't able to directly confront 4 longships (would mean 120-150 men at most)which weren't even full.

Most people seem to agree that mountain clansmen had 500 men with Robb, possibly because of Ruby Ford.

After Greatjon has taken all the men South Umbers raise 800; 400-450 old men and 350-400 boys whereas Karstarks are able to raise 600 men just from the young or Rodrick raising the same amount of young men in a very short time or Cerwyns raising 300 men again in a short time or Boltons raising 400-600 men.

This should be an indication that Umbers don't have near as many men as any of these houses because they had time to prepare and this was what they were able to raise, compared to some houses which raise the same or more young men in a very short time.

[Universal Sword Donor]

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

You don't say...

Yes. I was kind of confused why you brought it up. Pretty much irrelevant. 

[Corvo the Crow]

54 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Yes. I was kind of confused why you brought it up. Pretty much irrelevant. 

It is somewhat relevant, actually. We get no mention of Umbers throughout the campaign apart from Greatjon and Smalljon, that is until Arya sees them. Of course absence of mention doesn't mean their absence, I just provided possible commanders for the infantry part who are mentioned early in the story but not after Robb splits his army; people who are no longer mentioned after Catelyn is no longer present as a PoV for the foot part of Robb's host.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

On ‎12‎.‎01‎.‎2018 at 4:36 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

 

I've finished reading this but had no time to send a reply on it;

The quotes provided there does portray the armies of Westeros as trained and well equipped and not some random peasants drafted into the army, given neither training nor equipment, which is a misconception, I know... But then there are other quotes which tell us somewhat the oppositeof it; that the army is made up of people taken from their fields. Below are just a few examples of it:

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This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever. "Marching is all very well," she said to her son, "but where, and to what purpose? What do you mean to do?"

...

"My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

 

...

 

"Ser Useless should of fucked a few more peasant wenches while he still had a bit o' sap left in them old sad balls o' his," he said. "If he'd sown himself a nice crop o' bastard boys back then, might be we'd have some soldiers now."

"They seem no worse than any other peasant levy." Dunk had marched with a few such while squiring for Ser Arlan.

"Aye," Ser Bennis said. "In a fortnight they might stand their own, 'gainst some other lot o' peasants.

...

"Their shields are woven wood, ser. A lance could punch right through them, or a crossbow bolt."

"We may find some bits of armor for them, when they're ready." That was the best they could hope for.

 

Call it poor World building on Martin's part if you'd like but they are there as are the ones that portray somewhat professional armies.

[Corvo the Crow]

One small thing I've noticed; being able to call upon 2000 or so men seems to make one a greatlord and this is the number we are most commonly given for those whose numbers we know

Karstarks have 2000 infantry and 300 horse

Caron and Dondarrion had 4000 infantry and 800 horse

Florents have 2000 men

 

 

Edit: while I was at this:

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"House Florent can field two thousand swords at best." It was said that Stannis knew the strength of every house in the Seven Kingdoms.

From here we know that Florents have 2000 men at best... or is it? If they have 2000 men, then we know from Davos chapters that they have a disproportionately high amount of horsemen compared to other lords, Tywin included; Despite being in Stannis' Van they still have 700 men or more after the battle of Blackwater, which would be 1:2 if this 700 was without any casualties, which is not, so with a total of 2000 men, their ratio before the battle would be more close to 1:1, perhaps even exceeding it.

Horsemen are generally called "lances" and infantry men "spears". While referring to a group of both "swords" is used, but could it be that in some instances swords is used for infantry specifically, such as the one below?

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Ser Aenys had brought fifteen hundred Frey swords south to Harrenhal, yet it often seemed as if he were helpless to command even his own brothers.

 

Is it possible that the 2000 swords Florents could call upon are their infantry levy?

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

One small thing I've noticed; being able to call upon 2000 or so men seems to make one a greatlord and this is the number we are most commonly given for those whose numbers we know

Karstarks have 2000 infantry and 300 horse

Caron and Dondarrion had 4000 infantry and 800 horse

Florents have 2000 men

 

 

Agree.

[Corvo the Crow]

@Free Northman Reborn

Please check again as I'd like to have your thoughts on Florents having 2000 "swords"

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

@Free Northman Reborn

Please check again as I'd like to have your thoughts on Florents having 2000 "swords"

Seems pretty clear Stannis would not ignore the most valuable part of the Florent armed forces- their cavalry - when he scoffed at the strength they could provide to him. 2000 would seem to be their total strength, therefore.

[Corvo the Crow]

I am unsure as to whether keep the second recruitment of Freys , peasants with scythes or not. Because:

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"To Riverrun," Catelyn confirmed. She saw no reason to deny it. "Where I might have expected to find you, my lord. You are still my father's bannerman, are you not?"

"Heh," said Lord Walder, a noise halfway between a laugh and a grunt. "I called my swords, yes I did, here they are, you saw them on the walls. It was my intent to march as soon as all my strength was assembled. Well, to send my sons. I am well past marching myself, Lady Catelyn." He looked around for likely confirmation and pointed to a tall, stooped man of fifty years. "Tell her, Jared. Tell her that was my intent."

 

This would also have some other implications; the near 4000 is all the strength of Walder Frey, or rather all that could be used to form a proper army armed and equipped. On the other hand we have Karstarks for example, despite being down to sending young boys (conclusion from Alys' statements) after their initial 2300, they are still able to send out properly armed men while getting close to 3000 men.

[Free Northman Reborn]

33 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I am unsure as to whether keep the second recruitment of Freys , peasants with scythes or not. Because:

 

This would also have some other implications; the near 4000 is all the strength of Walder Frey, or rather all that could be used to form a proper army armed and equipped. On the other hand we have Karstarks for example, despite being down to sending young boys (conclusion from Alys' statements) after their initial 2300, they are still able to send out properly armed men while getting close to 3000 men.

One reason that I am skeptical of precise calculations is that Martin himself has alluded to the fact that even a liege lord himself has no real way of knowing what his own full strength is at any given time. I will have to go look for the exact quote, which I read some years ago, but the gist of it is that the number of men that a vassal lord is committed to provide is never really set in stone, and will vary depending on recent harvests, diseases, economic events, losses, migrations from his territory or just his current level of commitment to the cause.

Basically, a vassal lord might well promise to bring a thousand men to his liege, only for his own vassals to be less than enthusaistic resulting in him rocking up with five hundred men only.

Or he promises "a thousand knights to make the enemy tremble", only to rock up with 100 knights and 900 peasants with scythes and pitchforks.

Populations and fortunes vary over time, and the men the Umbers provided for the Skagosi revolt 100 years ago may not be the same (either positively or negatively) that they provided for Robert's Rebellion, as a random example.

We see a few vague examples of this even in Robb's call of the banners. The Flints of Widow's Watch claim sickness in their region, which might have an unquantifiable impact on the number of men they send, and similarly Lady Dustin appears to hold back significant numbers, without arousing the Starks' suspicions, saying she sent "as few as she dared".

So it seems clear that a census of military strength does not exist in Westeros, and host sizes vary widely depending on a multitude of possible factors. So it is quite conceivable that Walder Frey does not actually know whether his full strength is 3500 men or 4500 men, and when he had say 3900 gathered at the start of the war was satisfied that this was about as much as he was likely to get. Until he dug deeper later and scrounged up some more men, perhaps after a tad more "coercion" of his vassal lords.

[Corvo the Crow]

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

One reason that I am skeptical of precise calculations is that Martin himself has alluded to the fact that even a liege lord himself has no real way of knowing what his own full strength is at any given time. I will have to go look for the exact quote, which I read some years ago, but the gist of it is that the number of men that a vassal lord is committed to provide is never really set in stone, and will vary depending on recent harvests, diseases, economic events, losses, migrations from his territory or just his current level of commitment to the cause.

Basically, a vassal lord might well promise to bring a thousand men to his liege, only for his own vassals to be less than enthisaistic resulting in him rocking up with a hundred men only.

Or he promises "a thousand knights to make the enemy tremble", only to rock up with 100 knights and 900 peasants with scythes and pitchforks.

Populations and fortunes vary over time, and the men the Umbers provided for the Skagosi revolt 100 years ago may not be the same (either positively or negatively) that they provided for Robert's Rebellion, as a random example.

We see a few vague examples of this even in Robb's call of the banners. The Flint's of Widow's Watch claim sickness in their region, which might have an unquantifiable impact on the number of men they send, and similarly Lady Dustin appears to hold back significant numbers, without arousing the Starks' suspicions, saying she sent "as few as she dared".

So it seems clear that a census of military strength does not exist in Westeros, and host sizes vary widely depending on a multitude of possible factors. So it is quite conceivable that Walder Frey does not actually know whether his full strength is 3500 men or 4500 men, and when he had say 3900 gathered at the start of the war was satisfied that this was about as much as he was likely to get. Until he dig deeper later and scrounged up some more men, perhaps after a tad more "coercion" of his vassal lords.

True but I'd disagree with some parts of the first pharagraph; We see Stannis getting reports on his losses during his march to Winterfell so there seems to be a constant check of numbers.

As for the last part, it was my intention to raise this specific question; we see lords getting more men throughout the books but should all of them count? We aren't told that the poorly armed Freys going north are too old or too young so Walder is still able to send out men in their prime but he isn't able to arm them (at least Roose would have armed them if any of the two were able to). We see the contrary with Umbers and Karstarks, They send old men and young men but at least they are properly armed (and possibly armored, since they don't draw attention among the mailed soldiers.)

[Free Northman Reborn]

28 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

True but I'd disagree with some parts of the first pharagraph; We see Stannis getting reports on his losses during his march to Winterfell so there seems to be a constant check of numbers.

As for the last part, it was my intention to raise this specific question; we see lords getting more men throughout the books but should all of them count? We aren't told that the poorly armed Freys going north are too old or too young so Walder is still able to send out men in their prime but he isn't able to arm them (at least Roose would have armed them if any of the two were able to). We see the contrary with Umbers and Karstarks, They send old men and young men but at least they are properly armed (and possibly armored, since they don't draw attention among the mailed soldiers.)

There is a vast difference between keeping count of an assembled host, and keeping a precise tally of the number of men that a vassal can raise from his tens of thousands of square miles of territory in any given decade or year. Stannis knowing how many men his assembled army of 5000 lost to the cold count each night is very reasonable. Some lord knowing how many men a vassal will bring should he call the banners is something very different.

His basis for estimation is likely that the same vassal provided 900 men for his father in a previous war, so that might be more or less what he can expect again this time around. But was the 900 men provided the last time around a high turnout for that vassal or a low turnout? Was there famine in the vassal's lands at the time, were some of the vassal's vassals at war at the time, and therefore not willing to let go of all their strength, or was the vassal not on the best of terms with his father and thus provided the minimum number of men?

Or was the vassal fiercely committed and overextended himself the last time around and thus he should expect only 500 men this time. Or maybe the population of the region has changed over the last 20 years, and now the vassal can provide fewer or more men than before.

In short, the lords don't really seem to have a good handle on these things. Hence Lady Dustin has a huge margin to play with in sending a plausible number of men to Robb's summons. And the same applies to every other lord in Westeros, I would imagine.

EDIT

As for the Umbers and Karstarks, I would point out that we have no confirmation that the 450 men with Arnolf are old men or boys. The Umbers are confirmed to have old men and boys with Hother and Mors, but Arnolf's men appear to be pretty well equipped.

[Corvo the Crow]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

There is a vast difference between keeping count of an assembled host, and keeping a precise tally of the number of men that a vassal can raise from his tens of thousands of square miles of territory in any given decade or year. Stannis knowing how many men his assembled army of 5000 lost to the cold count each night is very reasonable. Some lord knowing how many men a vassal will bring should he call the banners is something very different.

His basis for estimation is likely that the same vassal provided 900 men for his father in a previous war, so that might be more or less what he can expect again this time around. But was the 900 men provided the last time around a high turnout for that vassal or a low turnout? Was there famine in the vassal's lands at the time, were some of the vassal's vassals at war at the time, and therefore not willing to let go of all their strength, or was the vassal not on the best of terms with his father and thus provided the minimum number of men?

Or was the vassal fiercely committed and overextended himself the last time around and thus he should expect only 500 men this time. Or maybe the population of the region has changed over the last 20 years, and now the vassal can provide fewer or more men than before.

In short, the lords don't really seem to have a good handle on these things. Hence Lady Dustin has a huge margin to play with in sending a plausible number of men to Robb's summons. And the same applies to every other lord in Westeros, I would imagine.

 

As I say, I agree. What I meant was not the amount of men he would expect but the actual number of men that has turned up. He would know that.

 

Quote

EDIT

As for the Umbers and Karstarks, I would point out that we have no confirmation that the 450 men with Arnolf are old men or boys. The Umbers are confirmed to have old men and boys with Hother and Mors, but Arnolf's men appear to be pretty well equipped.

Alys' tells us that only the greenboys and crippled or men too old to go off to war are left, from this I would say Arnolf has a large amount of boys(remember Rodrik having boys and only one guy around 20), or rather he has people who were not taken on account of being boys but since have grown, near two years have passed since the war has started. And yes, Arnolf's men seem to be equipped well but I'd argue Umbers are too. They are (old men at least) properly armed, if not properly armored. My point on Freys was exactly this. Despite sending men of lower fighting quality on account of their age, Northman are still properly armed and armored whereas Frey men are lacking in equipment. Walder may not have equipped them on account of sending them out as arrow fodder but Roose would(and he may have done so later on), since these are the men that will help him control North.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

As I say, I agree. What I meant was not the amount of men he would expect but the actual number of men that has turned up. He would know that.

 

Alys' tells us that only the greenboys and crippled or men too old to go off to war are left, from this I would say Arnolf has a large amount of boys(remember Rodrik having boys and only one guy around 20), or rather he has people who were not taken on account of being boys but since have grown, near two years have passed since the war has started. And yes, Arnolf's men seem to be equipped well but I'd argue Umbers are too. They are (old men at least) properly armed, if not properly armored. My point on Freys was exactly this. Despite sending men of lower fighting quality on account of their age, Northman are still properly armed and armored whereas Frey men are lacking in equipment. Walder may not have equipped them on account of sending them out as arrow fodder but Roose would(and he may have done so later on), since these are the men that will help him control North.

This links directly to what we talked about before. If a lord cannot know how many men any given vassal will provide, how can he know whether a vassal is down to old men and boys or not? Lord Karstark rules an area the size of England. Martin says he has vassals who has vassals. Judging by Lord Manderly, Lord Karstark will have up to a dozen petty lords and scores of Masterly Houses sworn to him.

Alys cannot know whether those vassals are down to old men and boys. She can only know about Karhold itself. Jon asked "How goes things at Karhold". And she answered him directly back.

It is confirmed to us that Hother and Mors have old men and boys in their armies. It is not confirmed to us that Arnolf has the same. Did some of his vassals hold back when Rickard raised the initial army, and Arnolf has since been able to raise more men from them now that the harvest is over? We don't know. But until we are expressly told that Arnolf's 450 men are old men and boys, I don't think we have a basis to state that.