Military Strengths and More!

[Ran]

FNR,

Yet Stannis knows the approximate number of all men many of the houses in Westeros can raise. Clearly, lords have greater knowledge of the demographics and population of their lands than you give them credit for. If the steward or one of her brothers or some petty lord remarked about how they'd brought the cream of the crop for Lord Karstark's raising of a host, Alys would know that they knew they were talking about.

So I'd go with her assesment of the situation regarding what the Karstarks can raise in the North at that point in ADwD.

[Free Northman Reborn]

32 minutes ago, Ran said:

FNR,

Yet Stannis knows the approximate number of all men many of the houses in Westeros can raise. Clearly, lords have greater knowledge of the demographics and population of their lands than you give them credit for. If the steward or one of her brothers or some petty lord remarked about how they'd brought the cream of the crop for Lord Karstark's raising of a host, Alys would know that they knew they were talking about.

So I'd go with her assesment of the situation regarding what the Karstarks can raise in the North at that point in ADwD.

"It was said that Lord Stannis knew the strength of every lord in Westeros". (from memory so some of the exact words may differ slightly.

On what would he base that strength, would you say? Clearly he does not know the real strength of every lord in Dorne, else he would know Dorne can raise maybe 25k men instead of 50k. Clearly he didn't even know about the existence of the Mountain Clans and their 3000 men, let alone what their strengths are.

Stannis most likely "knew" this strength from a study of military history. From records of previous wars, and the numbers of men that various Houses raised in the past. So he would know that Roddy the Ruin brought 2000 men from Barrowton. Maybe he would know of other hosts raised by Barrowton in the past. But that would not necessarily tell him how many of Roddy's men came from the Rills or elsewhere, perhaps. Or what portion of Barrowton's total strength went with Roddy.

He would know pretty much what was recorded about the Conquest of Dorne. He would know Torhenn raised 30k men against Aegon, he would know Dondarrion and Caron raised 4800 men a few decades later. And he would know of all the other recorded hosts that we aren't privy to in the World of Ice and Fire.

I wish I could find the quote from George about the number of men that can be expected from a vassal varying widely. Anyway, take Lady Dustin. She knew that a minimum number was required to allay suspicion. But the difference between that number and her full strength can be explained away without risk.

[Ran]

C

learly he does not know the real strength of every lord in Dorne, else he would know Dorne can raise maybe 25k men instead of 50k. 

Explained by the fact that the Dornish have fooled everyone on this. Are you suggesting the Starks have hidden the existence of the mountain clans? And the mountain clans aren't really _lords_, as such, and are something that doesn't really exist outside the North, so I think one can't fault him over much. 

Stannis doubtless also had access to information regarding households and hearths used to determine taxes, being a member of the small council, and would have been interested in that information precisely because he was interested in knowing the strengths of various lords of the realm.

So, again, I'll side with those who think Alys had a pretty good understanding of what her father and brothers had left from their area of dominion.

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Ran said:

 

 

Explained by the fact that the Dornish have fooled everyone on this. Are you suggesting the Starks have hidden the existence of the mountain clans? And the mountain clans aren't really _lords_, as such, and are something that doesn't really exist outside the North, so I think one can't fault him over much. 

Stannis doubtless also had access to information regarding households and hearths used to determine taxes, being a member of the small council, and would have been interested in that information precisely because he was interested in knowing the strengths of various lords of the realm.

So, again, I'll side with those who think Alys had a pretty good understanding of what her father and brothers had left from their area of dominion.

 

 

The Karstark number isn't the issue, for me. It is the principle of whether a Lord knows whether his vassal 100 miles away has no men left to bring in the harvest with after a rushed call to arms. Rickard didn't visit every one of his vassals prior to marching. He sent riders and ravens to call the banners, and marched as soon as the bulk of the men had arrived, from his England sized territory. Alys knows that the fields outside Karhold are untended due to Rickard's eagerness for war, but neither she nor Rickard himself knows if that is the case for every one of the hundred or so vassal houses in their domain (petty lords and masterly Houses, using the Manderly example as a benchmark).

And as for the taxes thing. My understanding was that this is a severely underdeveloped aspect of the Ice and Fire world. Do we have any indication that there is a count of households and hearths in Westeros for tax purposes? I have no knowledge of a Domesday Book equivalent for Westeros. Their social structure seems to be less developed than that.

[Ran]

Right. I think the Karstarks would have a sense of what their vassals can raise, would have been upset if the numbers were very far off of what they expected, or if the composition was very weird -- lots of the very young or the very old. It just seems to me that this is the sort of information a lord would have over his domains, normally, and Alys would have from being in Karhold around the people who'd know this stuff.

We've references to tax collection in the North, expectations of certain sums being sent, and I can't see how those figures are arrived at without some sense of what people can manage. George is light on discussing bureaucracy, but if anything the bureaucracy we know best is the fiscal apparatus thanks to Tyrion running through all the people Littlefinger owned, and it's clear that there's a pretty thorough and complicated system for collecting taxes and customs and so on. And per TWoIaF, Dorne getting the right to basically collect its own taxes is implicitly indicated to be part of the reason they were able to fool the rest of the realm regarding their strength, which directly links the idea that information related to collection of taxes can be used to deduce population and consequent military strength.

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

13 minutes ago, Ran said:

Right. I think the Karstarks would have a sense of what their vassals can raise, would have been upset if the numbers were very far off of what they expected, or if the composition was very weird -- lots of the very young or the very old. It just seems to me that this is the sort of information a lord would have over his domains, normally, and Alys would have from being in Karhold around the people who'd know this stuff.

We've references to tax collection in the North, expectations of certain sums being sent, and I can't see how those figures are arrived at without some sense of what people can manage. George is light on discussing bureaucracy, but if anything the bureaucracy we know best is the fiscal apparatus thanks to Tyrion running through all the people Littlefinger owned, and it's clear that there's a pretty thorough and complicated system for collecting taxes and customs and so on. And per TWoIaF, Dorne getting the right to basically collect its own taxes is implicitly indicated to be part of the reason they were able to fool the rest of the realm regarding their strength, which directly links the idea that information related to collection of taxes can be used to deduce population and consequent military strength.

 

 

I like the idea of Dorne's subterfuge and their ability to collect their own taxes being linked. It is a nice bit of subtle logical consistency to the worldbuilding.

I also agree that a lord should have a rough idea of what his vassals can raise. How "rough" that estimate is, is the question, I guess. And clearly that number would vary for each lord, from generation to generation. Clearly, for example, Ned does not seem to have brought more than 10-15k Northmen to the Battle of the Trident. So one wonders how many men the likes of the Karstarks contributed in that instance. If they only brought 1500 men then, on what basis would the Starks expect them to have up to 3000 men in the current war?

What I still don't understand, and surely you of all people would agree with me on this given how extensively you have laid out your military/population estimates in your Youtube videos on the topic, is how 2300 men can even remotely represent the number of males of prime swordwielding age in the Karstark lands, (with around 3000 men then apparently representing the entire adult male population). That's if we take Alys at her word and take it to be an accurate reference to the entire Karstark domain.

That blows the 1% rule out of the water. And it invalidates George's direct quote that the Ironborn are able to raise a far larger percentage of their population to arms than the mainland kingdoms can, because almost every able bodied man goes to war. Well, they clearly can't be raising a larger percentage than the Karstarks in this case, if the Karstarks too have raised every able bodied man to war.

Simply put, it does not make sense in the medieval society that Westeros so clearly is. The Karstarks cannot be raising even close to that percentage of their population to war. If they can, then so can every other House, and then the population of Westeros would seem to be closer to 4 million, rather than 40 million.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I like the idea of Dorne's subterfuge and their ability to collect their own taxes being linked. It is a nice bit of subtle logical consistency to the worldbuilding.

I also agree that a lord should have a rough idea of what his vassals can raise. How "rough" that estimate is, is the question, I guess. And clearly that number would vary for each lord, from generation to generation. Clearly, for example, Ned does not seem to have brought more than 10-15k Northmen to the Battle of the Trident. So one wonders how many men the likes of the Karstarks contributed in that instance. If they only brought 1500 men then, on what basis would the Starks expect them to have up to 3000 men in the current war?

What I still don't understand, and surely you of all people would agree with me on this given how extensively you have laid out your military/population estimates in your Youtube videos on the topic, is how 2300 men can even remotely represent the number of males of prime swordwielding age in the Karstark lands, (with around 3000 men then apparently representing the entire adult male population). That's if we take Alys at her word and take it to be an accurate reference to the entire Karstark domain.

That blows the 1% rule out of the water. And it invalidates George's direct quote that the Ironborn are able to raise a far larger percentage of their population to arms than the mainland kingdoms can, because almost every able bodied man goes to war. Well, they clearly can't be raising a larger percentage than the Karstarks in this case, if the Karstarks too have raised every able bodied man to war.

Simply put, it does not make sense in the medieval society that Westeros so clearly is. The Karstarks cannot be raising even close to that percentage of their population to war. If they can, then so can every other House, and then the population of Westeros would seem to be closer to 4 million, rather than 40 million.

 

On a comparison between RR and Wot5K, 15k men does seem a rather high number considering how quick young Ned was to gather his men and march down south compared to Robb. We are even given the info that rebels had far more knights, which could be a subtle hint towards that the men Ned brought were mostly on horse, men who would be able to gather quickly. Think of Tywin too, He has 35k in his last war but this is after some time gathering what seems to be all the men in fighting age and hiring numeroues sellsword companies which could amount to as many as 5k men with all we are given, perhaps even more, who knows but before that we see him hastily sending forth 11k men to sack KL.

 

Ironborn does seem to be raising a far larger percent of their men. Lord Goodbrother's main strength of near 40 long ships has beardless boys for crew and that is their first "raise" whereas Alys tells us that his father took most/all the men but left the boys behind. Same goes with Starks and Umbers. Where we are given details, books are consistent about Northman taking all the men and leaving only the young and old. Remember Rodrik telling that Robb took all the likely lads for leagues around and later on we see the new guards in training, only one guy above 20, with most younger than 16.

 

@Ran

One thing that really gets me confused is who actually forms the backbone of these armies, peasants or professional soldiers?

From Catelyn we learn that innkeepers, fieldhands, fishersand the like form the bulks of the armies and Alys' statement supports that but on the other hand, when we see actual combat like in Green Fork we see men properly armed and armored with good training and discipline that they don't break at the first sight of the enemy unlike wildlings when they face Stannis.

If it is the former, than lords surely arm them from their own stores, which would be very costly unless they go to discount markets like Duskendale after Glover's defeat and buy in bulk, so how do they afford to equip so many? or is there mails and helms lying around for decades?

 

Also nice detail on Dorne, until now I was never able to connect the two.

 

 

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

On a comparison between RR and Wot5K, 15k men does seem a rather high number considering how quick young Ned was to gather his men and march down south compared to Robb. We are even given the info that rebels had far more knights, which could be a subtle hint towards that the men Ned brought were mostly on horse, men who would be able to gather quickly. Think of Tywin too, He has 35k in his last war but this is after some time gathering what seems to be all the men in fighting age and hiring numeroues sellsword companies which could amount to as many as 5k men with all we are given, perhaps even more, who knows but before that we see him hastily sending forth 11k men to sack KL.

 

Ironborn does seem to be raising a far larger percent of their men. Lord Goodbrother's main strength of near 40 long ships has beardless boys for crew and that is their first "raise" whereas Alys tells us that his father took most/all the men but left the boys behind. Same goes with Starks and Umbers. Where we are given details, books are consistent about Northman taking all the men and leaving only the young and old. Remember Rodrik telling that Robb took all the likely lads for leagues around and later on we see the new guards in training, only one guy above 20, with most younger than 16.

 

@Ran

One thing that really gets me confused is who actually forms the backbone of these armies, peasants or professional soldiers?

From Catelyn we learn that innkeepers, fieldhands, fishersand the like form the bulks of the armies and Alys' statement supports that but on the other hand, when we see actual combat like in Green Fork we see men properly armed and armored with good training and discipline that they don't break at the first sight of the enemy unlike wildlings when they face Stannis.

If it is the former, than lords surely arm them from their own stores, which would be very costly unless they go to discount markets like Duskendale after Glover's defeat and buy in bulk, so how do they afford to equip so many? or is there mails and helms lying around for decades?

 

Also nice detail on Dorne, until now I was never able to connect the two.

 

 

 

 

The problem is a simple one. Let's assume for a moment that 2300 is indeed the bulk of the men of prime fighting age in the Karstark lands. And that 3000 then is the bulk of all able bodied adult men. Let's say if you add children, the non-able bodied and geriatrics who cannot fight anymore, that you then get to a total male population of double that. Say 6000.

That means the total Karstark population, including women is twice that. 12000.

So, if that is the case the Karstarks are raising 25% of their total population to war.

If so, someone would have to explain how on earth the Karstarks are able to achieve that. And whats more, you seem to be saying that this model is followed by the Umbers and Starks as well, meaning pretty much all over the North.

Which then begs the question, if the Karstarks and Umbers can achieve this, how can wealthier houses like the Freys not achieve the same? After all, the more wealth a House has, the more spare resources it has to mobilize its population for war.

In short, if the Karstarks can do this, then pretty much every southron House can also do this. Implying that Martin follows this model everywhere.

Which in turn means that the armies of Westeros represent closer to 20% of the population, than the 1% which is actually economically feasible in a medieval society. Which means that if Westeros in total can raise say 400k men, then its total population is only around 2 million.

Which is impossible,  and can immediately be dismissed by merely looking at obvious facts such as city and town populations, which on their own exceed 1 million, and possibly more.

A model where lords' armies represent the bulk of their male population creates massive problems for the world building consistency and realism.

[Corvo the Crow]

@Free Northman Reborn

I don't disagree with you, it isn't feasible.

But this is a World where lords not only have enough food for day to day consumption but also able to store so many food their population can survive on it with no harvest for years on end. Animals mysteriously are able to survive and repopulate after winter too, so they can be hunted off again by old men who have, again mysteriously, survived for years on hunting animals that would be losing numbers both because of the effects of winter and the increased number of "predators" introduced.

Northman sending huge parts of their population actually makes much more sense than people and animal being able to survive such long and harsh winters. At least it has the beneficial effect of removing mouths and moving a part of the population to warmer climates.

I think such a huge number of mounted force we see with Roddy the Ruin can also be explained with this, since at least some of his men were poorly equipped(ancient iron swords) they were perhaps went off to die with a taste of blood just like Big Bucket.

[Free Northman Reborn]

14 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

@Free Northman Reborn

I don't disagree with you, it isn't feasible.

But this is a World where lords not only have enough food for day to day consumption but also able to store so many food their population can survive on it with no harvest for years on end. Animals mysteriously are able to survive and repopulate after winter too, so they can be hunted off again by old men who have, again mysteriously, survived for years on hunting animals that would be losing numbers both because of the effects of winter and the increased number of "predators" introduced.

Northman sending huge parts of their population actually makes much more sense than people and animal being able to survive such long and harsh winters. At least it has the beneficial effect of removing mouths and moving a part of the population to warmer climates.

I think such a huge number of mounted force we see with Roddy the Ruin can also be explained with this, since at least some of his men were poorly equipped(ancient iron swords) they were perhaps went off to die with a taste of blood just like Big Bucket.

No, that's not the point I'm making. The point is that if the Northmen can do it, then so can every other House in Westeros. The North has the same socioeconomic structure as the South. It is a medieval feudal setup. If anything, the North's is just less economically productive. Meaning for every acre of grain produced they have less spare men to go off warring.

The fact still remains that in your scenario the Karstarks are then able to march a quarter of their population off to war. Meaning that the Freys should be able to do so too, and more so, because they have more spare food and more spare money to finance such an endeavour.

Take the Hightowers, as an example. They rule a city of 400k people, and therefore a countryside with a multiple of that number again. Say they have only 1 million people in their territory, which seems a lowball estimate, considering the population of Oldtown. If the Karstarks can mobilize 25% of their population, then so could the Hightowers, meaning they alone should be able to field 250,000 soldiers. Clearly this is not the case, with the highest estimates for their strength sitting between 10-20k men.

Same with Lord Manderly. He rules a city of maybe 40,000 people. And a countryside with multiple times that number. Let's say he has only 100,000 people in his domain, which again is a massive underestimation, based on the size of White Harbour. Going by the 25% mobilization figure, that should give him alone an army of 25,000 men. A bit difficult to explain if Torhenn Stark's entire army only had 30k men in it.

In short, it is impossible for the Karstarks to raise all their adult males to arms - or anything remotely approaching such a scenario. Else everyone else could do it too. And they clearly can't.

[Corvo the Crow]

I am spending less and less time on the forums and soon I'll no longer be visiting the forums for a very long time, if ever. As a result I'll no longer be updating this thread.

Anyone who wishes to continue this thread is of course welcome to open their own and use the information gathered here so far.

[Corvo the Crow]

I have sometime so here's a fun one

Arya is told every northerner is worth than southron by one of his father's guards

Quote

Inside were more bodies; a groom she had played with, and three of her father's household guard. A wagon, laden with crates and chests, stood abandoned near the door of the stable. The dead men must have been loading it for the trip to the docks when they were attacked. Arya snuck closer. One of the corpses was Desmond, who'd shown her his longsword and promised to protect her father. He lay on his back, staring blindly at the ceiling as flies crawled across his eyes. Close to him was a dead man in the red cloak and lion-crest helm of the Lannisters. Only one, though. Every northerner is worth ten of these southron swords, Desmond had told her. "You liar!" she said, kicking his body in a sudden fury.

Doesn't seem to be the case, is it?

Later in the story

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"But such a battle!" said Theon Greyjoy eagerly. "My lady, the realm has not seen such a victory since the Field of Fire. I vow, the Lannisters lost ten men for every one of ours that fell. We've taken close to a hundred knights captive, and a dozen lords bannermen. Lord Westerling, Lord Banefort, Ser Garth Greenfield, Lord Estren, Ser Tytos Brax, Mallor the Dornishman … and three Lannisters besides Jaime, Lord Tywin's own nephews, two of his sister's sons and one of his dead brother's …"

 

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"I shall do my best to forget your … wisdom," Ned said with distaste. "I called you here to ask for the help you promised Catelyn. This is a perilous hour for all of us. Robert has named me Protector, true enough, but in the eyes of the world, Joffrey is still his son and heir. The queen has a dozen knights and a hundred men-at-arms who will do whatever she commands … enough to overwhelm what remains of my own household guard. And for all I know, her brother Jaime may be riding for King's Landing even as we speak, with a Lannister host at his back."

...

Ned had expected Cersei to strike quickly; the summons came as no surprise. "The king is dead," he said, "but we shall go with you nonetheless. Tom, assemble an escort, if you would."

Littlefinger gave Ned his arm to help him down the steps. Varys, Pycelle, and Ser Barristan followed close behind. A double column of men-at-arms in chainmail and steel helms was waiting outside the tower, eight strong. Grey cloaks snapped in the wind as the guardsmen marched them across the yard. There was no Lannister crimson to be seen, but Ned was reassured by the number of gold cloaks visible on the ramparts and at the gates.

...

Behind the throne, twenty Lannister guardsmen waited with longswords hanging from their belts. Crimson cloaks draped their shoulders and steel lions crested their helms. But Littlefinger had kept his promise; all along the walls, in front of Robert's tapestries with their scenes of hunt and battle, the gold-cloaked ranks of the City Watch stood stiffly to attention, each man's hand clasped around the haft of an eight-foot-long spear tipped in black iron. They outnumbered the Lannisters five to one.

 

Cersei has 112 men, but only 20 of them with her in throne room.

Ned had 50, sent 4 guardsmen with Lady's remains, sent 20 with Beric, lost 3 against Jaime and had 8 with him, leaving 15 to defend the tower of the hand, perhaps fewer if some of his men were waiting near the ship.

 

Jaime had ~2k with him against Robb's 6k

 

Conclusion: A Northerner is worth more than southron swords.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

A small thing on Stannis' strength on the Wall.

 

This is the strength and fighting strength of the watch and how it changes from the beginning until the election.

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"You can," Mormont said bluntly. "Your sister sits beside the king. Your brother is a great knight, and your father the most powerful lord in the Seven Kingdoms. Speak to them for us. Tell them of our need here. You have seen for yourself, my lord. The Night's Watch is dying. Our strength is less than a thousand now. Six hundred here, two hundred in the Shadow Tower, even fewer at Eastwatch, and a scant third of those fighting men. The Wall is a hundred leagues long. Think on that. Should an attack come, I have three men to defend each mile of wall."

"The Old Bear is taking two hundred seasoned men, three-quarters of them rangers. Qhorin Halfhand will be bringing another hundred brothers from the Shadow Tower. You'll be as safe as if you were back in your lord father's castle at Horn Hill."

It will not be enough, Sam thought. Craster's sloping palisades of mud and melting snow would hardly slow the wights, who'd climbed the much steeper slopes of the Fist to swarm over the ringwall. And instead of three hundred brothers drawn up in disciplined ranks to meet them, the wights would find forty-one ragged survivors, nine too badly hurt to fight. Forty-four had come straggling into Craster's out of the storm, out of the sixty-odd who'd cut their way free of the Fist, but three of those had died of their wounds, and Bannen would soon make four.

Jon's throat was dry. "Water," he gasped. Grenn brought it, and held it to his lips. "I saw the Fist," he said, after a long swallow. "The blood, and the dead horses . . . Noye said a dozen made it back . . . who?"

"Dywen did. Giant, Dolorous Edd, Sweet Donnel Hill, Ulmer, Left Hand Lew, Garth Greyfeather. Four or five more. Me."

 

A hundred and twenty, and well armed for wildlings. Bronze armor, some bits of steel. How many men are left here?"

"Forty odd," said Donal Noye. "The crippled and infirm, and some green boys still in training."

"If Marsh is gone, who did he name as castellan?"

 

Tonight it was Sam's turn to give his results first. "Two hundred and three for Ser Denys Mallister," he said. "One hundred and sixty-nine for Cotter Pyke. One hundred and thirty-seven for Lord Janos Slynt, seventy-two for Othell Yarwyck, five for Three-Finger Hobb, and two for Dolorous Edd."

"I had one hundred and sixty-eight for Pyke," Clydas said. "We are two votes short by my count, and one by Sam's."

There are 589 brothers left by the time of the election. They had a lot less than 350 fighting men at the start and of the 300 men who went Ranging, only 12 return.

 

 

 

Quote

 

"Power?" The king snorted. "I have thirteen hundred men on Dragonstone, another three hundred at Storm's End." His hand swept over the Painted Table. "The rest of Westeros is in the hands of my foes. I have no fleet but Salladhor Saan's. No coin to hire sellswords. No prospect of plunder or glory to lure freeriders to my cause."

"Lord husband," said Queen Selyse, "you have more men than Aegon did three hundred years ago. All you lack are dragons."

Ser Marlon went on. "How many men can Stannis put into the field, can you tell us that? How many knights ride with him? How many bowmen, how many freeriders, how many men-at-arms?"

Too few, Davos knew. Stannis had come north with no more than fifteen hundred men … but if he told them that, his mission here was doomed. He fumbled for words and found none.

 

 

This is Stannis' strength before he sails to Wall.

 

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Nothing that his brothers told him prepared him for what he found at Castle Black, however. The common hall had burned to the ground and the great wooden stair was a mound of broken ice and scorched timbers. Donal Noye was dead, along with Rast, Deaf Dick, Red Alyn, and so many more, yet the castle was more crowded than Sam had ever seen; not with black brothers, but with the king's soldiers, more than a thousand of them. There was a king in the King's Tower for the first time in living memory, and banners flew from the Lance, Hardin's Tower, the Grey Keep, the Shieldhall, and other buildings that had stood empty and abandoned for long years. "The big one, the gold with the black stag, that's the royal standard of House Baratheon," he told Gilly, who had never seen banners before. "The fox-and-flowers is House Florent. The turtle is Estermont, the swordfish is Bar Emmon, and the crossed trumpets are for Wensington."

This is Sam, he says there are more than a thousand soldiers, we know one of Stannis' columns of horse was shattered by a mammoth, so there'd be casualties there, other than that his host doesn't seem to have suffered casualties so a thousand or a bit more soldiers seems right.

 

But... then there's this.

 

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A rebel and a turncloak, aye, and a bastard and a warg as well. Janos Slynt might be gone, but his lies lingered. "I know what they say." Jon had heard the whispers, had seen men turn away when he crossed the yard. "What would they have me do, take up swords against Stannis and the wildlings both? His Grace has thrice the fighting men we do, and is our guest besides. The laws of hospitality protect him. And we owe him and his a debt."

Jon says Stannis has three times the fighting men the Watch they have, so Stannis 1000+ men may not all be fighters, especially with this taken into consideration

Quote

The southron knights rode out in plate and mail, dinted and scarred by the battles they had fought, but still bright enough to glitter when they caught the rising sun. Faded and stained, torn and mended, their banners and surcoats still made a riot of colors amidst the winter wood—azure and orange, red and green, purple and blue and gold, glimmering amongst bare brown trunks, grey-green pines and sentinels, drifts of dirty snow.

Each knight had his squires, servants, and men-at-arms. Behind them came armorers, cooks, grooms; ranks of spearmen, axemen, archers; grizzled veterans of a hundred battles and green boys off to fight their first. Before them marched the clansmen from the hills; chiefs and champions astride shaggy garrons, their hirsute fighters trotting beside them, clad in furs and boiled leather and old mail. Some painted their faces brown and green and tied bundles of brush about them, to hide amongst the trees.

Back of the main column the baggage train followed: mules, horses, oxen, a mile of wayns and carts laden with food, fodder, tents, and other provisions. Last the rear guard—more knights in plate and mail, with a screening of outriders following half-hidden to make certain no foe could steal up on them unawares.

Could it be that squires and servants are also counted by soldiers as Sam, therefore reducing the actual number of men capable of a fight Stannis has after the battle? Or does Jon count all/most the brothers as fighting men (since Marsh has taken most of them to fight off the Weeper, even though Jeor Mormont counts only a third of his 1000- as fighters and loses most of them)

[divica]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

A small thing on Stannis' strength on the Wall.

 

This is the strength and fighting strength of the watch and how it changes from the beginning until the election.

There are 589 brothers left by the time of the election. They had a lot less than 350 fighting men at the start and of the 300 men who went Ranging, only 12 return.

 

 

 

 

This is Stannis' strength before he sails to Wall.

 

This is Sam, he says there are more than a thousand soldiers, we know one of Stannis' columns of horse was shattered by a mammoth, so there'd be casualties there, other than that his host doesn't seem to have suffered casualties so a thousand or a bit more soldiers seems right.

 

But... then there's this.

 

Jon says Stannis has three times the fighting men the Watch they have, so Stannis 1000+ men may not all be fighters, especially with this taken into consideration

Could it be that squires and servants are also counted by soldiers as Sam, therefore reducing the actual number of men capable of a fight Stannis has after the battle? Or does Jon count all/most the brothers as fighting men (since Marsh has taken most of them to fight off the Weeper, even though Jeor Mormont counts only a third of his 1000- as fighters and loses most of them)

I have started a topic about how many fighting men stannis has before the battle of ice. So If you have time I would be interested to know how many men you think stannis will have when the battle starts and after the battle.... I am of the opinion that whatever happens stannis broke his army on that march.

I think if we look at this quote

Quote

"How many men can Stannis put into the field, can you tell us that? How many knights ride with him? How many bowmen, how many freeriders, how many men-at-arms?"

Too few, Davos knew. Stannis had come north with no more than fifteen hundred men … but if he told them that, his mission here was doomed. He fumbled for words and found none.

The 1500 must be the fighting men. The only doubt is if that includes the squires... 

And you can also add that stannis brought 800 horses to the Wall so he has about 700 knights with him.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

4 hours ago, divica said:

I have started a topic about how many fighting men stannis has before the battle of ice. So If you have time I would be interested to know how many men you think stannis will have when the battle starts and after the battle.... I am of the opinion that whatever happens stannis broke his army on that march.

I think if we look at this quote

The 1500 must be the fighting men. The only doubt is if that includes the squires... 

And you can also add that stannis brought 800 horses to the Wall so he has about 700 knights with him.

 

He had eight hundred horses after Deepwood Motte, which possibly includes Mountain Clansmen too. Also usually 1 Knight = 2 horses, maybe more (Golden Company knights have 3) Stannis still had 600-700 Florents with him on Dragonstone and they would all be knights but quite possibly most weren't able to bring their horses aboard the ships due to space concerns.

[divica]

22 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

He had eight hundred horses after Deepwood Motte, which possibly includes Mountain Clansmen too. Also usually 1 Knight = 2 horses, maybe more (Golden Company knights have 3) Stannis still had 600-700 Florents with him on Dragonstone and they would all be knights but quite possibly most weren't able to bring their horses aboard the ships due to space concerns.

It doesn t include the clansmen because asha is talking about Southern horses. She uses other word to talk about the clansmen horses.

[Corvo the Crow]

21 hours ago, divica said:

It doesn t include the clansmen because asha is talking about Southern horses. She uses other word to talk about the clansmen horses.

No, it is both. It is not Asha who gives the number, it is Justin Massey and Asha tells us that not only almost all of the destriers and palfreys are now dead, but even the garrons are dying.

Quote

"Nor I. But you had best choke down some horsemeat all the same, or you may soon wish you had. We had eight hundred horses when we marched from Deepwood Motte. Last night the count was sixty-four."

That did not shock her. Almost all of their big destriers had failed, including Massey's own. Most of their palfreys were gone as well. Even the garrons of the northmen were faltering for want of fodder. But what did they need horses for? Stannis was no longer marching anywhere. The sun and moon and stars had been gone so long that Asha was starting to wonder whether she had dreamed them. "I will eat."

 

[divica]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No, it is both. It is not Asha who gives the number, it is Justin Massey and Asha tells us that not only almost all of the destriers and palfreys are now dead, but even the garrons are dying.

 

In the quote it gives the idea that few of the garrons have died so far.

Besides aren t 800 horses very few horses if we include the clansmen? How many cavalry would stannis have in the beguining then?

[Corvo the Crow]

13 hours ago, divica said:

In the quote it gives the idea that few of the garrons have died so far.

Besides aren t 800 horses very few horses if we include the clansmen? How many cavalry would stannis have in the beguining then?

It doesn't give us the idea that few garrons have died, it only says even the garrons are dying. Compared to palfreys and destriers, yeah a bigger portion of them have survived, but it doesn't mean much by itself as almost all the destriers are dead and most of the palfreys. A lot of the garrons would be dead too, due to lack of fodder.

 

This is Stannis' army.

Quote

 

Trumpets were blowing all around, loud and brazen. The wildlings have no trumpets, only warhorns. They knew that as well as he did; the sound sent free folk running in confusion, some toward the fighting, others away. A mammoth was stomping through a flock of sheep that three men were trying to herd off west. The drums were beating as the wildlings ran to form squares and lines, but they were too late, too disorganized, too slow. The enemy was emerging from the forest, from the east, the northeast, the north; three great columns of heavy horse, all dark glinting steel and bright wool surcoats. Not the men of Eastwatch, those had been no more than a line of scouts. An army. The king? Jon was as confused as the wildlings. Could Robb have returned? Had the boy on the Iron Throne finally bestirred himself? "You best get back inside the tent," he told Val.

Across the field one column had washed over Harma Dogshead. Another smashed into the flank of Tormund's spearmen as he and his sons desperately tried to turn them. The giants were climbing onto their mammoths, though, and the knights on their barded horses did not like that at all; he could see how the coursers and destriers screamed and scattered at the sight of those lumbering mountains. But there was fear on the wildling side as well, hundreds of women and children rushing away from the battle, some of them blundering right under the hooves of garrons. He saw an old woman's dog cart veer into the path of three chariots, to send them crashing into each other.

...

More and more men were pouring from the trees, not only knights now but freeriders and mounted bowmen and men-at-arms in jacks and kettle helms, dozens of men, hundreds of men. A blaze of banners flew above them. The wind was whipping them too wildly for Jon to see the sigils, but he glimpsed a seahorse, a field of birds, a ring of flowers. And yellow, so much yellow, yellow banners with a red device, whose arms were those?

East and north and northeast, he saw bands of wildlings trying to stand and fight, but the attackers rode right over them. The free folk still had the numbers, but the attackers had steel armor and heavy horses. In the thickest part of the fray, Jon saw Mance standing tall in his stirrups. His red-and-black cloak and raven-winged helm made him easy to pick out. He had his sword raised and men were rallying to him when a wedge of knights smashed into them with lance and sword and longaxe. Mance's mare went up on her hind legs, kicking, and a spear took her through the breast. Then the steel tide washed over him.

It's done, Jon thought, they're breaking. The wildlings were running, throwing down their weapons, Hornfoot men and cave dwellers and Thenns in bronze scales, they were running. Mance was gone, someone was waving Harma's head on a pole, Tormund's lines had broken. Only the giants on their mammoths were holding, hairy islands in a red steel sea. The fires were leaping from tent to tent and some of the tall pines were going up as well. And through the smoke another wedge of armored riders came, on barded horses. Floating above them were the largest banners yet, royal standards as big as sheets; a yellow one with long pointed tongues that showed a flaming heart, and another like a sheet of beaten gold, with a black stag prancing and rippling in the wind.

Robert, Jon thought for one mad moment, remembering poor Owen, but when the trumpets blew again and the knights charged, the name they cried was "Stannis! Stannis! STANNIS!"

 

 

 

And these are the clansmen of the northern mountains

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Stannis rubbed the back of his neck. "You haggle like a crone with a codfish, Lord Snow. Did Ned Stark father you on some fishwife? How many men?"

"Two thousand. Perhaps three."

"Three thousand? What manner of men are these?"

"Proud. Poor. Prickly where their honor is concerned but fierce fighters."

"This had best not be some bastard's trick. Will I trade three hundred fighters for three thousand? Aye, I will. I am not an utter fool. If I leave the girl with you as well, do I have your word that you will keep our princess closely?"

...

"Done, then. Now, where are these men?"

"You'll find them here." Jon spread his burned hand across the map, west of the kingsroad and south of the Gift.

"Those mountains?" Stannis grew suspicious. "I see no castles marked there. No roads, no towns, no villages."

"The map is not the land, my father often said. Men have lived in the high valleys and mountain meadows for thousands of years, ruled by their clan chiefs. Petty lords, you would call them, though they do not use such titles amongst themselves. Clan champions fight with huge two-handed greatswords, while the common men sling stones and batter one another with staffs of mountain ash. A quarrelsome folk, it must be said. When they are not fighting one another, they tend their herds, fish the Bay of Ice, and breed the hardiest mounts you'll ever ride."

 

 

From my earlier posts, a column could be as few as a hundred, a wedge, two dozen. So Stannis may had just 400-500 horse or so at start and the text would support it:

Jon describes the non-knight part of Stannis' army as "dozens, hundreds" the three columns are never described as having hundreds of men.

Most of Stannis' survivors are knights and perhaps light horse (Florents being more than half) but we know they couldn't rescue most of the men simply because they had not enough space on ships. So most, if not all of the surviving knights possibly had to leave their horses. especially since they would be using boats to transport men (no docks)

 

 

Also another thing on Stannis' current strength

Quote

"If there is to be a battle, my place is here with you."

"Your place is where I say it is. I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue, and those will be of more use to me at Braavos then here. The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

Ser Justin's hair had fallen down across one eye. He pushed it back and said, "The captains of the free companies will join a lord more readily than a mere knight, Your Grace. I hold neither lands nor title, why should they sell their swords to me?"

This five hundred could be how many men he has left from what he brought North. Or it could just be how many knights left of that. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

29 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

It doesn't give us the idea that few garrons have died, it only says even the garrons are dying. Compared to palfreys and destriers, yeah a bigger portion of them have survived, but it doesn't mean much by itself as almost all the destriers are dead and most of the palfreys. A lot of the garrons would be dead too, due to lack of fodder.

 

This is Stannis' army.

 

 

And these are the clansmen of the northern mountains

 

From my earlier posts, a column could be as few as a hundred, a wedge, two dozen. So Stannis may had just 400-500 horse or so at start and the text would support it:

Jon describes the non-knight part of Stannis' army as "dozens, hundreds" the three columns are never described as having hundreds of men.

Most of Stannis' survivors are knights and perhaps light horse (Florents being more than half) but we know they couldn't rescue most of the men simply because they had not enough space on ships. So most, if not all of the surviving knights possibly had to leave their horses. especially since they would be using boats to transport men (no docks)

 

 

Also another thing on Stannis' current strength

This five hundred could be how many men he has left from what he brought North. Or it could just be how many knights left of that. 

Or he rates Massey as an average fighter, and therefore places half his men at Massey's level or higher. Your interpretation would make Massey equivalent to the weakest fighter in his army, which seems unlikely.

As for the horses, I also always interpreted it as about 60 southron horses left out of his original 800, and that this excludes the garrons of the Mountain Clansmen.