Military Strengths and More!

[direpupy]

On 12/6/2017 at 11:02 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Except the men are right in front of him and Oberyn and his 300 party are more than capable of counting soldiers if a Willdling with Tyrion was. Boasting about armies you potentially have is one thing, doing so about those right infront of you is easily called out. Plus Tyrion does not have to boast of numbers, whether it is a total of 50k or 80k this is still the biggest military power in the realm by some distance. 

 

The evidence seems to show that Tyrion is simply rounding up rather than exagerating as we know that his claim of ear 5,000 is true as a council meeting shows there are 4,400. 

 

 

And how exactly do you count men that are spread out over a city like the goldcloaks, or count the part of the army that is marching to duskendale with Randyll Tarly.

No Tyrion was exaggeration the numbers all evidence points to this.

[Bernie Mac]

On 12/12/2017 at 8:50 AM, direpupy said:

And how exactly do you count men that are spread out over a city like the goldcloaks, or count the part of the army that is marching to duskendale with Randyll Tarly.

eh? The Small Council is going to have a rough idea of how many Gold Cloaks they pay and the fact that Tyrion thinks they have 4,400 and tells Oberyn that they have almost 5k does not show an exageration but a simple rounding up. 

On 12/12/2017 at 8:50 AM, direpupy said:

No Tyrion was exaggeration the numbers all evidence points to this.

lol what evidence? You have provided none. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

eh? The Small Council is going to have a rough idea of how many Gold Cloaks they pay and the fact that Tyrion thinks they have 4,400 and tells Oberyn that they have almost 5k does not show an exageration but a simple rounding up. 

lol what evidence? You have provided none. 

The context of the quotes, especially when coupled with Tyrion's need to make up for the pitiful trail of nobles/support and the attitude of Oberyn, make is pretty clear he's exaggerating for effect. He wants overawe Oberyn, or perhaps he's feeling a bit defensive/insecure:

Quote

 

 

 

“Why, if the gods were cruel, they would have made me my mother’s firstborn, and Doran her third. I am a bloodthirsty man, you see. And it is me you must contend with now, not my patient, prudent, and gouty brother.”
Tyrion could see the sun shining on the Blackwater Rush half a mile ahead, and on the walls and towers and hills of King’s Landing beyond.He glanced over his shoulder, at the glittering column following them up the kingsroad. “You speak like a man with a great host at his back,” he said, “yet all I see are three hundred. Do you spy that city there, north of the river?”
“The midden heap you call King’s Landing?”
“That’s the very one.”
“Not only do I see it, I believe I smell it now.”
“Then take a good sniff, my lord. Fill up your nose. Half a million people stink more than three hundred, you’ll find. Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of  them. My father’s own sworn swords must account for another twenty thousand. And then 
there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don’t they? Especially when there are so many of  them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can’t really say how many are left, but there’s more than I care to count, anyway.”
Martell gave a shrug. “In Dorne of old before we married Dacron, it was said that all flowers bow before the sun. Should the roses seek to hinder me I’ll gladly trample them underfoot.”
“As you trampled Willas Tyrell?”

 

I honestly don't see how someone can get "rounding up" vs exaggerating for effect from that exchange (and I cut out a bunch), but humans will always have a few that claim white is black and up is down.

[Bernie Mac]

On 14/12/2017 at 2:56 AM, Universal Sword Donor said:

The context of the quotes, especially when coupled with Tyrion's need to make up for the pitiful trail of nobles/support and the attitude of Oberyn, make is pretty clear he's exaggerating for effect. He wants overawe Oberyn, or perhaps he's feeling a bit defensive/insecure:

So why does he not exaggerate the exploits of the people with him? Something that would be far easier to do than lie about military numbers which, in this series, any Wildling can count. In fact he downplays the people with him, Addam is also the Heir of House Marbrand and yet this is not mentioned nor does he mention that Ser Philip Foote is also now the Lord of Nightsong. 

And it such a dumb thing to lie about as how many Reach men were in the city would be common knowledge throughout Kings Landing; Tyrion would be jeopardising any trust for a pointless lie that changes nothing. The Royal army in the city, with or without Tywion's 'exaggeration' vastly outnumbers what Oberyn has with him. There is no reason to lie about it as an extra 10k is not going to change their prospects. And Tyrion does not even mention the Stormland troops. 

 

And of course there is no indicator from Tyrion's thoughts that he has deliberately misled Oberyn in this conversation, yet he points out in his thoughts when he has lied to Pod on the previous page. 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

So why does he not exaggerate the exploits of the people with him? Something that would be far easier to do than lie about military numbers which, in this series, any Wildling can count. In fact he downplays the people with him, Addam is also the Heir of House Marbrand and yet this is not mentioned nor does he mention that Ser Philip Foote is also now the Lord of Nightsong. 

Because the company with him is neither prestigious nor especially notable. He says as much in the passage:

“The names had a nice ringing sound as Tyrion reeled them off, but the bearers were nowise near as distinguished nor formidable a company as those who accompanied Prince Oberyn, as both of them knew full well.”

21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

And it such a dumb thing to lie about as how many Reach men were in the city would be common knowledge throughout Kings Landing; Tyrion would be jeopardising any trust for a pointless lie that changes nothing. The Royal army in the city, with or without Tywion's 'exaggeration' vastly outnumbers what Oberyn has with him. There is no reason to lie about it as an extra 10k is not going to change their prospects. And Tyrion does not even mention the Stormland troops. 

And of course there is no indicator from Tyrion's thoughts that he has deliberately misled Oberyn in this conversation, yet he points out in his thoughts when he has lied to Pod on the previous page. 

No one is gonna have an exact count of Reachmen. They just know it's a shit ton of roses and SLers. The fact that Tyrion omits that the stormlanders are there too says much. And as far as the commoners:

Reminded us that the men in Westeros have medieval type education. Not every man can count, not every man can read. Gave the example of different mens viewpoints regarding the same army. The first mans count would be 10,000 men. The second man seeing the same host would say it was 5,000...

Deliberately misleading or not knowing and going with the highest number? 

“ Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can’t really say how many are left, but there’s more than I care to count, anyway.”

Pretty clear exaggerating for effect or letting Oberyn think the worst can happen. Either way, it's clear he's going for shock and awe. The ending where he just lets the mic drop says a lot too:

“Tyrion gave him a long look. “Chataya’s on the Street of Silk has several girls who might suit your needs. Dancy has hair the color of honey. Marie’s is pale white-gold. I would advise you to keep one or the other by your side at all times, my lord.”
“At all times?” Prince Oberyn lifted a thin black eyebrow. “And why is that, my good Imp?”
“You want to die with a breast in hand, you said.” Tyrion cantered on ahead to where the ferry barges waited on the south bank of the Blackwater. He had suffered all he meant to suffer of what passed for Dornish wit.”

 

[Tygett Lannister]

There was 6000 gold cloaks at KL before the battle, I don't really think many of them died since they broke just at the end of the battle and most of the casualties are inflicted after battle.

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

There was 6000 gold cloaks at KL before the battle, I don't really think many of them died since they broke just at the end of the battle and most of the casualties are inflicted after battle.

They did desert and hide though. We know as much from Tywin's (or Cersei's) statement

 

[Tygett Lannister]

12 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They did desert and hide though. We know as much from Tywin's (or Cersei's) statement

 

With that it makes 4400 gold clocks believable number.

[direpupy]

On 12/13/2017 at 11:44 PM, Bernie Mac said:

 

lol what evidence? You have provided none. 

And this proves you have not read the posts in this tread from the beginning, congratulations your a troll

[Corvo the Crow]

On Vale's naval  power

 

Quote

This help King Mathos Arryn, Second of His Name, was pleased to provide, upon the condition that the Sistermen agreed to do fealty to him and his descendants thereafter, and acknowledge the right of the Eyrie to rule over them. When his lady wife questioned the wisdom of involving the Vale in this War Across the Water, His Grace famously replied that he would sooner have a pirate than a wolf for his neighbor. The king set sail for Sisterton with a hundred warships.

He never returned, but his sons carried on the war after him. For a thousand years, Winterfell and the Eyrie contested for the rule of the Three Sisters. The Worthless War, some dubbed it. Time and time again the fighting seemed at an end, only to flare up once more a generation later. The islands changed hands more than a dozen times. Thrice the Northmen landed on the Fingers. The Arryns sent a fleet up the White Knife to burn the Wolf's Den, and the Starks replied by attacking Gulltown and burning hundreds of ships in their wroth when the city walls proved too strong for them.

From TWOIAF

[direpupy]

5 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

On Vale's naval  power

 

From TWOIAF

So a minimum is the hundred warships that he takes to sisterton. Unfortunately we can not see from this quote how many of the hundreds of ships that where burned at Gulltown are warships, and how many where trading vessels.

[Corvo the Crow]

2 minutes ago, direpupy said:

So a minimum is the hundred warships that he takes to sisterton. Unfortunately we can not see from this quote how many of the hundreds of ships that where burned at Gulltown are warships, and how many where trading vessels.

Exactly, this is why I updated the first post as such. We have no idea how many were war ships let alone if all belonged to the Vale; trade ships there could very well have belonged to Myr or Volantis or what ever other country.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Exactly, this is why I updated the first post as such. We have no idea how many were war ships let alone if all belonged to the Vale; trade ships there could very well have belonged to Myr or Volantis or what ever other country.

Note that Gulltown and White Harbor are similar in size, with Gulltown being slightly the larger of the two. And we see from Davos that at the random time of his visit there were maybe a dozen trade ships in White Harbour, at most. (I can't quite recall the exact number right now).

So one would presume that Gulltown will not have dramatically more trade vessels present at any given time than White Harbor does. Even if we double the number, it is still only around a score of ships.

And that would be Gulltown today. 2000 years ago it would have been far more primitive and less developed. With some of the Free Cities like Braavos not even existing at the time.

So it seems likely to me that only a small fraction of the hundreds of ships in the Gulltown Harbor would have been trade vessels. 90% or more were likely warships.

[direpupy]

15 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Note that Gulltown and White Harbor are similar in size, with Gulltown being slightly the larger of the two. And we see from Davos that at the random time of his visit there were maybe a dozen trade ships in White Harbour, at most. (I can't quite recall the exact number right now).

So one would presume that Gulltown will not have dramatically more trade vessels present at any given time than White Harbor does. Even if we double the number, it is still only around a score of ships.

And that would be Gulltown today. 2000 years ago it would have been far more primitive and less developed. With some of the Free Cities like Braavos not even existing at the time.

So it seems likely to me that only a small fraction of the hundreds of ships in the Gulltown Harbor would have been trade vessels. 90% or more were likely warships.

Maybe but we also have to take into account the local fishermen, who would have fled to Gulltowns harbor in the hopes of safety once the Northern fleet arrived in the waters of the Vale. These would actually be the bulk of the ships in the harbor, so i think the warships are likely less then half of all the ships there.

[Free Northman Reborn]

38 minutes ago, direpupy said:

Maybe but we also have to take into account the local fishermen, who would have fled to Gulltowns harbor in the hopes of safety once the Northern fleet arrived in the waters of the Vale. These would actually be the bulk of the ships in the harbor, so i think the warships are likely less then half of all the ships there.

I don't think fishing boats would be described as ships. And since the warships of the time were longboats, I don't see why 200-300 warships would be unreasonable for a kingdom the size of the Vale. With say 50 men per ship, that is still only around 10,000-15,000 warriors. After all, Manderly alone built 50 warships in a year. Theon Stark's own warfleet likely numbered in the hundreds of ships as well, when he invaded Andalos, the Sisters and the Fingers.

[direpupy]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don't think fishing boats would be described as ships. And since the warships of the time were longboats, I don't see why 200-300 warships would be unreasonable for a kingdom the size of the Vale. With say 50 men per ship, that is still only around 10,000-15,000 warriors. After all, Manderly alone built 50 warships in a year. Theon Stark's own warfleet likely numbered in the hundreds of ships as well, when he invaded Andalos, the Sisters and the Fingers.

Actually they are described as ships more then once.

Here we see Cat describing all the different types of ships she sees in the harbor of Kings Landing among them fishing boats.

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn IV

A hundred quays lined the waterfront, and the harbor was crowded with ships. Deepwater fishing boats and river runners came and went, ferrymen poled back and forth across the Blackwater Rush, trading galleys unloaded goods from Braavos and Pentos and Lys. Catelyn spied the queen's ornate barge, tied up beside a fat-bellied whaler from the Port of Ibben, its hull black with tar, while upriver a dozen lean golden warships rested in their cribs, sails furled and cruel iron rams lapping at the water.

Here we see Davos do the same for the harbor of Dragonstone.

A Clash of Kings - Davos I

Ships lined the strand; war galleys and fishing vessels, stout carracks and fat-bottomed cogs. The best berths had been taken by the largest vessels: Stannis's flagship Fury rocking between Lord Steffon and Stag of the Sea, Lord Velaryon's silver-hulled Pride of Driftmark and her three sisters, Lord Celtigar's ornate Red Claw, the ponderous Swordfish with her long iron prow. Out to sea at anchor rode Salladhor Saan's great Valyrian amongst the striped hulls of two dozen smaller Lysene galleys.

 

And here Theon looking over the harbor of Lordsport.

A Clash of Kings - Theon I

Theon was more interested in ships than gods. Among the masts of countless fishing boats, he spied a Tyroshi trading galley off-loading beside a lumbering Ibbenese cog with her black-tarred hull. A great number of longships, fifty or sixty at the least, stood out to sea or lay beached on the pebbled shore to the north. Some of the sails bore devices from the other islands; the blood moon of Wynch, Lord Goodbrother's banded black warhorn, Harlaw's silver scythe. Theon searched for his uncle Euron's Silence. Of that lean and terrible red ship he saw no sign, but his father's Great Kraken was there, her bow ornamented with a grey iron ram in the shape of its namesake.

 

And here we see Sam describing the shattered ships he sees coming up the Whispering Sound towards Oldtown

A Feast for Crows - Samwell V

Scorched fields and burned villages appeared on the banks, and the shallows and sandbars were strewn with shattered ships. Merchanters and fishing boats were the most common, but they saw abandoned longships too, and the wreckage of two big dromonds. One had been burned down to the waterline, whilst the other had a gaping splintered hole in her side where her hull had been rammed.

 

Here Tyrion in Pentos who counts fishing boats as small ships.

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion I

Across the pool stood a brick wall twelve feet high, with iron spikes along its top. Beyond that was the city. A sea of tiled rooftops crowded close around a bay. He saw square brick towers, a great red temple, a distant manse upon a hill. In the far distance, sunlight shimmered off deep water. Fishing boats were moving across the bay, their sails rippling in the wind, and he could see the masts of larger ships poking up along the shore.

 

And Tyrion again this time sailing after his capture by Ser Jorah Mormont, he describes the ships he sees.

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion VIII

Life aboard the Selaesori Qhoran was nothing if not tedious, Tyrion had found. The most exciting part of his day was pricking his toes and fingers with a knife. On the river there had been wonders to behold: giant turtles, ruined cities, stone men, naked septas. One never knew what might be lurking around the next bend. The days and nights at sea were all the same. Leaving Volantis, the cog had sailed within sight of land at first, so Tyrion could gaze at passing headlands, watch clouds of seabirds rise from stony cliffs and crumbling watchtowers, count bare brown islands as they slipped past. He saw many other ships as well: fishing boats, lumbering merchantmen, proud galleys with their oars lashing the waves into white foam. But once they struck out into deeper waters, there was only sea and sky, air and water. The water looked like water. The sky looked like sky. Sometimes there was a cloud. Too much blue.

 

Here is Victarion describing the ships he captured on his way to Mereen.

A Dance with Dragons - The Iron Suitor

Nine-and-ninety ships had left the Stepstones in three proud fleets, with orders to join up again off the southern tip of the Isle of Cedars. Forty-five had now arrived on the far side of the world. Twenty-two of Victarion's own had straggled in, by threes and fours, sometimes alone; fourteen of Ralf the Limper's; only nine of those that had sailed with Red Ralf Stonehouse. Red Ralf himself was amongst the missing. To their number the fleet had added nine new prizes taken on the seas, so the sum was fifty-four … but the captured ships were cogs and fishing boats, merchantmen and slavers, not warships. In battle, they would be poor substitutes for the lost ships of the Iron Fleet.

 

Here is a description of the ships of the Rhoynar fled on.

The World of Ice and Fire - Ancient History: Ten Thousand Ships

Legend tells us that Nymeria took ten thousand ships to sea, searching for a new home for her people beyond the long reach of Valyria and its dragonlords. Beldecar argues that this number was vastly inflated, perhaps as much as tenfold. Other chroniclers offer other numbers, but in truth no true count was ever made. We can safely say there were a great many ships. Most were river craft, skiffs and poleboats, trading galleys, fishing boats, pleasure barges, even rafts, their decks and holds crammed full of women and children and old men. Only one in ten was remotely seaworthy, Beldecar insists.

 

So to me it is clear that the hundreds of ships would include fishing boats and they would be the bulk of the ships in the harbor probably more then half of them. Combined with any merchant vessels there i am quite confident that the number of warships is less then half of the total.

Which mind you could still be as much as a hundred ships or more, hundreds is anything above 200 and below 1000.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, direpupy said:

So to me it is clear that the hundreds of ships would include fishing boats and they would be the bulk of the ships in the harbor probably more then half of them. Combined with any merchant vessels there i am quite confident that the number of warships is less then half of the total.

Which mind you could still be as much as a hundred ships or more, hundreds is anything above 200 and below 1000.

We already know of 100 warships going to Sisters earlier, the answer to the question "how big a portion of their navy would they send" should give us an idea of their power.

[Corvo the Crow]

 

Quote

 

The Andals were ever a warlike folk, for one of the Seven that they worship is the Warrior himself. Though secure in their own domains, some Kings of the Vale have from time to time sought conquest beyond their own borders. In such wars they had the advantage of knowing that, should the fighting go against them, they could always fall back behind the great natural walls of their mountains.

Nor did the Kings of the Mountain and Vale neglect their fleets. In Gulltown they possessed a fine and formidable natural harbor, and under the Arryns it grew into one of the foremost cities of the Seven Kingdoms. Though the Vale itself is famously fertile, it is small compared to the domains of other kings (and even some great lords), and the Mountains of the Moon are bleak, stony, and inhospitable. Trade is therefore of paramount importance to the rulers of the Vale, and the wiser of the Arryn kings always took care to protect it by building warships of their own.

 

Who could these great lords be? Hightowers must certainly be one but what about others? I think this is an important find because we already know that six lord declarants can raise 20000 and Petyr can't match them but this would be another limiting factor on their top strength and would also give us some idea on the strengths of other regions and perhaps even some great lords like Hightowers; Oldtown alone is guarded by thousands and even with tens of thousands already raised, Tyrells are certain they could raise another 20000 in a month, surely some of them would come from Hightower lands.

[direpupy]

25 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

We already know of 100 warships going to Sisters earlier, the answer to the question "how big a portion of their navy would they send" should give us an idea of their power.

Looking at the quotes again, are we sure that the burning of the ships at Gulltown was at the same time as Matthos started the war or is this an event under one of his succesors.

But your question remains valid none the less. How much would they send? I would think at least half of there fleet would have to guard against a counterattack, but that's just my opinion.

[Corvo the Crow]

Just now, direpupy said:

Looking at the quotes again, are we sure that the burning of the ships at Gulltown was at the same time as Matthos started the war or is this an event under one of his succesors.

But your question remains valid none the less. How much would they send? I would think at least half of there fleet would have to guard against a counterattack, but that's just my opinion.

I think it was one of the later kings but it doesn't really matter when these two events happened as they wouldn't leave their own kingdom vulnerable, North wouldn't be the only enemy if they leave themselves exposed.