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Ser_ Felipe Dayne

How will Stannis invade Winterfell if he can defeat the Freys?

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11 hours ago, divica said:

Very interesting post. It sounds realistic without bias towards any character.

However I think we have to take something into consideration. Stannis is a tragic character. Whenever he is nealy grasping greatness with the odds on his side something unexpected happens and he loses it all. The blackwater battle is a great exemple of stannis life.

So how can things go to hell for stannis? What if maderley never shows up for the battle instead of joining with stannis? Then what if roose has set up a massive trap and a day later sent ramsay with na army to kill the surviving manderleys from the battle against stannis? However when they get there there are no manderleys and the freys are about to be defeated thanks to stannis plots. But ramsay arrives in time to save them and in turn defeat stannis?

Do you think something along those lines makes sense taking into account stannis tragic fate?

It would be too strange if the manderleys return to winterfell without a known frey leading the remaining frey soldiers. Everybody would know they betryed the freys somehow and roose would probably be very suspicious of them and take some kind of measures.

Thanks! That is what I was aiming for. I completely agree Stannis is a tragic figure and is ultimately a doomed one in this series like so many others but right now he is the last hope of removing the Boltons from the North since there are really any other military forces to oppose them right now plus Blackwater was an unexpected tragedy for him because he had the numbers but everything that could go wrong did go wrong. I think he is due for a victory and has had a few off screen. This man DID defeat the Iron Fleet after all during Greyjoy's rebellion. The one thing you said that really resonates with me the most though is Roose sending Ramsay with another force to attack Stannis. Should Stannis march on Winterfell he could have Ramsay's force take Stannis in the rear, using a hammer and anvil tactic on Stannis with the walls of Winterfell acting as the anvil. If he did send Ramsay out he would have to send him with Dreadfort men only because he can't trust Ramsay to behave in a way to keep the loyalty of men from other houses, this would also diminish Roose's strength and control over the houses that would remain inside the walls with him forcing him to rely on Lady Dustin. It may be a necessary risk though because Roose might want to send Ramsay out with a force specifically as opposed to another northern lord because Ramsay is a loose cannon and might do more more harm than good if he remains cooped up in Winterfell with tensions running high so Roose would send him out for the same reason he sent out the Freys and Manderleys. A really good twist would be if Stannis was defeated by the surprise ambush from a Ramsay attack after defeating the Freys and having his forces weakened in the process. Meanwhile Roose is overthrown in Winterfell by the other northern lords. Ramsay returns to Winterfell with key hostages taken from his victory over Stannis (Theon, his sister, fArya, maybe a few others, maybe Stannis himself) and Ramsay and the rest of his men are slaughtered by a surprise attack from the men still in Winterfell and Manderly's son comes from White Harbor with Davos and Rickon in tow and they install Rickon back in Winterfell. This conclusion would bring about the end of the Boltons and Stannis simultaneously. But again Roose sending Ramsay from the castle before he can cause Roose any more problems sounds very logical and it seems like something Roose's character would do.

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17 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I'm doubtful but what say this tread gets a bit of a kick start.

 

 

 

This is what confuses me about the possible battles at the crofters village and WF.

In the DwD Asha chapter, The Sacrifice, a group of people ride in to Stannis’ camp. Asha thinks perhaps as many as a score(20).

A Dance with Dragons - The Sacrifice        They emerged from the storm like a troop of wraiths, big men on small horses, made even bigger by the bulky furs they wore. Swords rode on their hips, singing their soft steel song as they rattled in their scabbards. Asha saw a battle-axe strapped to one man's saddle, a warhammer on another's back. Shields they bore as well, but so obscured by snow and ice that the arms upon them could not be read. For all her layers of wool and fur and boiled leather, Asha felt naked standing there. A horn, she thought, I need a horn to rouse the camp./

Turns out is the Banker & his NW’s escort plus six Ironborn released from Deepwood, Theon & Jeyne and maybe a few others.

Bare with me a minute --- the banker & his NW escort were able to get from CB to Deepwood. Ransom some Ironborn, ride to WF, encounter Umber who has Theon & Jeyne and then ride to where ever Stannis is. Is that reasonably correct?

Umber nonchalantly passed Theon & Jeyne over the group.

In the WoW Theon chapter Theon remembers that while Umber was sorta interrogating Jeyne, “What he might have said or done next Theon never learned, for that was when the boy ran up. Clutching a spear and shouting that the portcullis on Winterfell’s main gate was rising. And how Crowsfood had grinned at that.”

Can someone help me figure this out? I understand some things like 40 foot snow drifts have to be taken with a grain of salt but why is Umber smiling about the main gate portcullis opening? What happened? Did anyone ride out? Did someone sneak in WF? How did the Banker and his merry men find Stannis so quickly?  I asking because a couple hundred pages before the Sacrifice chapter a raven arrived at WF saying Stannis is three days ride from WF

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I "His host lies not three days' ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well."/

My be that I am just being fussy and making mountains out of mole hills but does there seem to be information missing?

Let me look at that again. Shyte hit the fan inside WF. Word is Stannis is three days from WF.  People decide now is the time to rescue fArya. Theon & Jeyne jump. They are picked up by Umber. Theon while in Umbers custody remembers the portcullis opens. Some time in there the Banker arrives. Theon & Jeyne are passed of the Banker. The banker and his troupe find Stannis stranded at the village how?

Crowfood had dug ditches with spikes outside the gates, so Aenys Frey rode in and died, presumably with a few other Frey retainers at his side.  Now the Freys are led by Ser Stupid.  Can't even remember his real name.

Stanniss' host is trapped because they are southerners riding southern destriers-war horses.  When we are given the "cold count" the only northern loss was a horse, the owner of which was sure it was stolen by another clan not dead.  They are riding northern garoons that have snow shoes.  The men walking would presumably have snowshoes if not skis, and are bundled up in warn furs, whereas the southern nobles would be well taken care of, the more common men would not have adequate warm clothing.  It is classic winter warfare for the unprepared.  They also have no food, and the lake provides a little so they stayed hoping the storm would stop and it would become easier to travel.  IMO, he should've slaughtered every destrier he had when the snow started, then built sleds and snow shoes for all his men.  They'd of reached Winterfell 4-5 days later.

Umbers men, along with Tycho Nestoris' party are all well equipped and riding the proper horses.  They did not have to stop moving whereas Stannis has been still for days now, and had some men on foot to begin with.

The Frey horses should have the same difficult time, Manderlys as well.  They are described as heavy horse.  The Freys also have infantry.  While they are not from as far south as the Stormlanders with Stannis, they are nonetheless not use to a northern Winter.  This means Theon and Jeyne would've arrived at Stannis camp well ahead of anyone pursuing them.  Between Umber, who appears to be more than competent, and the mountain clans, unlike the Blackwater Stannis will be the one who has the best scouts.  He is the one with all the information, whereas last time he was in the dark about everything.  He also drastically outnumbers his opponent.  There is much to be debated about the exact # of Freys.  Theon gives a really high count, I can't remember exactly but if we say 2000, then Stannis outnumbers them 3-1.  Even if half the Bolton force did arrive Stannis would still have #'s on his side.  

The Freys would have brought enough provisions to march back to Winterfell with, and with all the dead horses, Stannis should have enough supplies to get there, or to Torrhens Square.  Asha would likely be able to get Dagmer to go along with her.

There are so many possible scenarios that I've just been going through in my head.  It's impossible to truly predict the plot, but with Stannis having been built up as this great commander, and with the situation being such a complete opposite of the one where he lost at the Blackwater, I just can't see him loosing.  If he does, all of the other northerners introduced into his plot were introduced for no reason, they don't increase anyone's fighting strength if they all die now.

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2 hours ago, Buddhakin said:

Thanks! That is what I was aiming for. I completely agree Stannis is a tragic figure and is ultimately a doomed one in this series like so many others but right now he is the last hope of removing the Boltons from the North since there are really any other military forces to oppose them right now plus Blackwater was an unexpected tragedy for him because he had the numbers but everything that could go wrong did go wrong. I think he is due for a victory and has had a few off screen. This man DID defeat the Iron Fleet after all during Greyjoy's rebellion. The one thing you said that really resonates with me the most though is Roose sending Ramsay with another force to attack Stannis. Should Stannis march on Winterfell he could have Ramsay's force take Stannis in the rear, using a hammer and anvil tactic on Stannis with the walls of Winterfell acting as the anvil. If he did send Ramsay out he would have to send him with Dreadfort men only because he can't trust Ramsay to behave in a way to keep the loyalty of men from other houses, this would also diminish Roose's strength and control over the houses that would remain inside the walls with him forcing him to rely on Lady Dustin. It may be a necessary risk though because Roose might want to send Ramsay out with a force specifically as opposed to another northern lord because Ramsay is a loose cannon and might do more more harm than good if he remains cooped up in Winterfell with tensions running high so Roose would send him out for the same reason he sent out the Freys and Manderleys. A really good twist would be if Stannis was defeated by the surprise ambush from a Ramsay attack after defeating the Freys and having his forces weakened in the process. Meanwhile Roose is overthrown in Winterfell by the other northern lords. Ramsay returns to Winterfell with key hostages taken from his victory over Stannis (Theon, his sister, fArya, maybe a few others, maybe Stannis himself) and Ramsay and the rest of his men are slaughtered by a surprise attack from the men still in Winterfell and Manderly's son comes from White Harbor with Davos and Rickon in tow and they install Rickon back in Winterfell. This conclusion would bring about the end of the Boltons and Stannis simultaneously. But again Roose sending Ramsay from the castle before he can cause Roose any more problems sounds very logical and it seems like something Roose's character would do.

More than that. I think Roose has to suspect that the freys and manderleys are likely to fight between themselves outside of winterfell and lack unity to be a good army.

Maybe he is convinced that the best thing that can happen is that stannis, the manderleys and the freys kill each other and the surviving northmen from this battle surrender to him. In addition theon says to stannis that ramsay will come after the freys and manderleys. I just don t see ramsay and roose making so many moves without some kind of plot. They are smart unpredictable characters. They need to have some scheme behind the scenes that we don t know.

53 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Crowfood had dug ditches with spikes outside the gates, so Aenys Frey rode in and died, presumably with a few other Frey retainers at his side.  Now the Freys are led by Ser Stupid.  Can't even remember his real name.

Stanniss' host is trapped because they are southerners riding southern destriers-war horses.  When we are given the "cold count" the only northern loss was a horse, the owner of which was sure it was stolen by another clan not dead.  They are riding northern garoons that have snow shoes.  The men walking would presumably have snowshoes if not skis, and are bundled up in warn furs, whereas the southern nobles would be well taken care of, the more common men would not have adequate warm clothing.  It is classic winter warfare for the unprepared.  They also have no food, and the lake provides a little so they stayed hoping the storm would stop and it would become easier to travel.  IMO, he should've slaughtered every destrier he had when the snow started, then built sleds and snow shoes for all his men.  They'd of reached Winterfell 4-5 days later.

Umbers men, along with Tycho Nestoris' party are all well equipped and riding the proper horses.  They did not have to stop moving whereas Stannis has been still for days now, and had some men on foot to begin with.

The Frey horses should have the same difficult time, Manderlys as well.  They are described as heavy horse.  The Freys also have infantry.  While they are not from as far south as the Stormlanders with Stannis, they are nonetheless not use to a northern Winter.  This means Theon and Jeyne would've arrived at Stannis camp well ahead of anyone pursuing them.  Between Umber, who appears to be more than competent, and the mountain clans, unlike the Blackwater Stannis will be the one who has the best scouts.  He is the one with all the information, whereas last time he was in the dark about everything.  He also drastically outnumbers his opponent.  There is much to be debated about the exact # of Freys.  Theon gives a really high count, I can't remember exactly but if we say 2000, then Stannis outnumbers them 3-1.  Even if half the Bolton force did arrive Stannis would still have #'s on his side.  

The Freys would have brought enough provisions to march back to Winterfell with, and with all the dead horses, Stannis should have enough supplies to get there, or to Torrhens Square.  Asha would likely be able to get Dagmer to go along with her.

There are so many possible scenarios that I've just been going through in my head.  It's impossible to truly predict the plot, but with Stannis having been built up as this great commander, and with the situation being such a complete opposite of the one where he lost at the Blackwater, I just can't see him loosing.  If he does, all of the other northerners introduced into his plot were introduced for no reason, they don't increase anyone's fighting strength if they all die now.

Even if stannis has the numbers now he might have 2 big problems. With fArya rescued won t some clans start returning home? I sincerelly don t remember the text but I think that they joined the army to rescue arya and avenge ned. Killing Boltons and a bunch of other northmen is hardly avenging ned... It is more like avenging robb and there might be too many northern houses allied with the boltons for them to think they are killing their countryman for a southerner. There is no stark to put in charge of winterfell...

Stannis only has 1500 men. With the battle to come and the cold weather some of his men will die. When will is army be so small that he is inconsequential for the north? maybe some clan member or northern lord will try to assume leadership of the army.

While I agree he will defeat the freys I think he will lose the battle somehow. It is his fate!

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1 hour ago, divica said:

More than that. I think Roose has to suspect that the freys and manderleys are likely to fight between themselves outside of winterfell and lack unity to be a good army.

Maybe he is convinced that the best thing that can happen is that stannis, the manderleys and the freys kill each other and the surviving northmen from this battle surrender to him. In addition theon says to stannis that ramsay will come after the freys and manderleys. I just don t see ramsay and roose making so many moves without some kind of plot. They are smart unpredictable characters. They need to have some scheme behind the scenes that we don t know.

Even if stannis has the numbers now he might have 2 big problems. With fArya rescued won t some clans start returning home? I sincerelly don t remember the text but I think that they joined the army to rescue arya and avenge ned. Killing Boltons and a bunch of other northmen is hardly avenging ned... It is more like avenging robb and there might be too many northern houses allied with the boltons for them to think they are killing their countryman for a southerner. There is no stark to put in charge of winterfell...

Stannis only has 1500 men. With the battle to come and the cold weather some of his men will die. When will is army be so small that he is inconsequential for the north? maybe some clan member or northern lord will try to assume leadership of the army.

While I agree he will defeat the freys I think he will lose the battle somehow. It is his fate!

The clan members may stay with Stannis if they are convinced the Others are a threat and the long night is returning. That's the whole reason Stannis went North and the only reason even Stannis will remain in the North once the Bolton's are dealt with. I think we can rely on Stannis to be more concerned about the Others than the Iron Throne. I think Stannis's sword will be the death of him, it is a false sword that won't stand against the Others if he ever faces one.

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5 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

The sample chapter seems to confirm that the Freys rode out the gate and into the traps Mors had set, given Aenys rode into a trench and broke his neck. Mors had seemingly wanted to provoke that sort of response for a while, given his boys were constantly making noise with the drums and he was ambushing Roose's scouts as they left the castle (Roose mentions that none had been returning). 

Not sure what answer you're after with respect to Tycho locating Stannis. He knew the rough direction, had some guides with him, and Stannis had kept a beacon fire lit 24/7 on the tower at the village. I don't know if it's unrealistic that he found him in the storm, but I never assumed any information was missing. 

I think I understand now. The smile was because someone was going to fall into the pits he ordered dug. Makes sense.

The Winds of Winter - Theon I     "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"      "Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now." Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."/

Not directed at you specifically but if you want to talk some more ---- I’m guessing that the Frey’s turned back into WF while the banker ‘s group traveled on to Stannis. I’m  using the banker as a place holder so I don’t have to type all the other names. I don’t understand why Umber would risk passing Theon & Jeyne off to a group of strangers.

I’m trying to organize in my mind a series of events. That is best accomplished with the help of others who have information about what I have forgotten or not considered. If the Frey’s turned back into WF Roose is not as vulnerable as I imagined.

Part of what I am wrestling with is whether the Frey’s rode out before the Bolton’s discovered fArya was missing. If the gates are booby trapped by pits with spikes can horses get around them? I guess the horses can jump the pit now that the riders know. I’m tossing around ideas because of the pink/bastard letter.

 

Edited by Clegane'sPup

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2 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

There are so many possible scenarios that I've just been going through in my head. 

Me, also. Thanks for tossing ideas around with me.

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18 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

The clan members may stay with Stannis if they are convinced the Others are a threat and the long night is returning. That's the whole reason Stannis went North and the only reason even Stannis will remain in the North once the Bolton's are dealt with. I think we can rely on Stannis to be more concerned about the Others than the Iron Throne. I think Stannis's sword will be the death of him, it is a false sword that won't stand against the Others if he ever faces one.

First, the clan members can only receive information about the others after they conquer winterfell and they start receiving ravens from the Wall and the doubt is if they will help stannis conquer winterfell. However the immediate problem from the north are the wildlings and not the others!

Stannis went north because of the wildlings! It wasn t because of the others. And he only did it to start conquering the 7 kingdoms from the north. He went north as a means to reach the IT. He is obecessed with it. I think you are making a great leap to say he will stay in the north comanding the fight against the ww. First, that is the duty of the NW and second he can perfectly decide to go gather the armies of the south and stop the ww at the neck. There is no garantee anywhere that stannis will stay in the north! His soldiers are few and aren t even trained to fight against the ww in the weather they are in... The wildlings hate him... And the northmen will probably stand by a stark (rickon or jon) that might comand the armies of the north (in rickon's case he would chose some northern lord for the job)

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23 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I think I understand now. The smile was because someone was going to fall into the pits he ordered dug. Makes sense.

The Winds of Winter - Theon I     "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"      "Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now." Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."/

Not directed at you specifically but if you want to talk some more ---- I’m guessing that the Frey’s turned back into WF while the banker ‘s group traveled on to Stannis. I’m  using the banker as a place holder so I don’t have to type all the other names. I don’t understand why Umber would risk passing Theon & Jeyne off to a group of strangers.

I’m trying to organize in my mind a series of events. That is best accomplished with the help of others who have information about what I have forgotten or not considered. If the Frey’s turned back into WF Roose is not as vulnerable as I imagined.

Part of what I am wrestling with is whether the Frey’s rode out before the Bolton’s discovered fArya was missing. If the gates are booby trapped by pits with spikes can horses get around them? I guess the horses can jump the pit now that the riders know. I’m tossing around ideas because of the pink/bastard letter.

 

It would be funny if stannis had to march to winterfell because the freys were delayed taking care of the traps...

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1 hour ago, divica said:

With fArya rescued won t some clans start returning home?

I had not thought of this.

I guess it depends on how much information people have. I'm thinking the northmen want the Bolton's out of WF for a number of reasons.

4 hours ago, Buddhakin said:

Meanwhile Roose is overthrown in Winterfell by the other northern lords.

I am hoping that there are some archers in WF and that Roose gets feathered while sitting at the dais eating his meal.

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29 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I had not thought of this.

I guess it depends on how much information people have. I'm thinking the northmen want the Bolton's out of WF for a number of reasons.

I am hoping that there are some archers in WF and that Roose gets feathered while sitting at the dais eating his meal.

If I had to come up with a just way for Roose to die, I would have him held prisoner to await Rickons judgement. Once Rickon decided he would die, obviously Rickon would be too young to be able to decapitate Roose so instead he would order Shaggydog to rip him apart.

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43 minutes ago, divica said:

First, the clan members can only receive information about the others after they conquer winterfell and they start receiving ravens from the Wall and the doubt is if they will help stannis conquer winterfell. However the immediate problem from the north are the wildlings and not the others!

Stannis went north because of the wildlings! It wasn t because of the others. And he only did it to start conquering the 7 kingdoms from the north. He went north as a means to reach the IT. He is obecessed with it. I think you are making a great leap to say he will stay in the north comanding the fight against the ww. First, that is the duty of the NW and second he can perfectly decide to go gather the armies of the south and stop the ww at the neck. There is no garantee anywhere that stannis will stay in the north! His soldiers are few and aren t even trained to fight against the ww in the weather they are in... The wildlings hate him... And the northmen will probably stand by a stark (rickon or jon) that might comand the armies of the north (in rickon's case he would chose some northern lord for the job)

I'll have to respectfully disagree.

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49 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I had not thought of this.

I guess it depends on how much information people have. I'm thinking the northmen want the Bolton's out of WF for a number of reasons.

I agree that SOME northmen want the boltons out of WF. However I don t remember that being the motivation for the clans. But my major problem is: They are fighting other northmen why and for whom? stannis? They don t know him. There is nobody to rule the north if they defeat the boltons and their allies... If they were rescuing arya it would be diferent, but now they must decide who will rule the north after the boltons and then the clansmen can decide if they will be part of the war. If there is no answer to this problem at least the clansmen should leave stannis army.

The rest of the northmen depends on their hate for the boltons...

15 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

I'll have to respectfully disagree.

The part about stannis going north to fight the wildling is true. I don t have the text here but I am 99% sure that the nw asked for help to defeat the wildlings and that davos had to convence stannis because he wasn t very inclined to go. He only decided to go because he could start conquering the 7 kingdoms with the north. The rest is speculation, but stannis does seem obecessed with the IT...

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41 minutes ago, divica said:

I agree that SOME northmen want the boltons out of WF. However I don t remember that being the motivation for the clans. But my major problem is: They are fighting other northmen why and for whom? stannis? They don t know him. There is nobody to rule the north if they defeat the boltons and their allies... If they were rescuing arya it would be diferent, but now they must decide who will rule the north after the boltons and then the clansmen can decide if they will be part of the war. If there is no answer to this problem at least the clansmen should leave stannis army.

The rest of the northmen depends on their hate for the boltons...

The part about stannis going north to fight the wildling is true. I don t have the text here but I am 99% sure that the nw asked for help to defeat the wildlings and that davos had to convence stannis because he wasn t very inclined to go. He only decided to go because he could start conquering the 7 kingdoms with the north. The rest is speculation, but stannis does seem obecessed with the IT...

I won't deny in the end that the Iron Throne is Stannis's main objective but he concedes that he must protect his kingdom and he recognizes that the Others are a threat to his kingdom and needs to deal with them. The letter that Stannis gets that convinces him to go north isnt a letter warning him about the Wildlings but a letter warning him against the wights and the Others. Plus Melisandre has influence over Stannis and this threat troubles Mel greatly and in turn she has convinced Stannis that this a threat that he was destined to take care of. As for the clansmen, they will probably linger at Winterfell for a little while after the Boltons are defeated to give their views on who ought to rule the North the same as the official northern houses. These clan leaders are bannerman just as much as the other northern lords. The main reason they sided with Stannis was to avenge the Starks and rescue fArya. Stannis has a mind to give Winterfell to one of his southern bannerman as he said as much to Jon Snow when Jon Snow refused Stannis's offer of Winterfell and a lordship. The clansmen will not stand for having the Starks replaced with a southern lord, and neither will the other northern lords so there will be a council of some sorts to decide who will make for the best to take Winterfell. It will be at this point most likely that the truth of Bran and Rickon's survival will cone out. We know that a clansmen shared a cave with Bran and the Reeds while Bran was traveling north to the Wall so that information is likely with the clans and then there is the fact that the Manderleys know Rickon is alive and have taken measures to recover him. So the clansmen will most likely linger to make sure that Winterfell is delivered back into the hands of the Starks which will be Rickon specifically because we all know that they are not going to recover Bran as long as he is in Bloodravens cave.

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5 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I think I understand now. The smile was because someone was going to fall into the pits he ordered dug. Makes sense.

The Winds of Winter - Theon I     "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"      "Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now." Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."/

Not directed at you specifically but if you want to talk some more ---- I’m guessing that the Frey’s turned back into WF while the banker ‘s group traveled on to Stannis. I’m  using the banker as a place holder so I don’t have to type all the other names. I don’t understand why Umber would risk passing Theon & Jeyne off to a group of strangers.

I’m trying to organize in my mind a series of events. That is best accomplished with the help of others who have information about what I have forgotten or not considered. If the Frey’s turned back into WF Roose is not as vulnerable as I imagined.

Part of what I am wrestling with is whether the Frey’s rode out before the Bolton’s discovered fArya was missing. If the gates are booby trapped by pits with spikes can horses get around them? I guess the horses can jump the pit now that the riders know. I’m tossing around ideas because of the pink/bastard letter.

 

I assume that when Aenys broke his neck the Freys would've stopped, but only for a little while.  Once it was discovered that (F)Arya was missing the Boltons would've ordered them to continue on.  Theon and Co. made their escape while the Freys were assembling, but did not start exiting the castle until the alarm was already sounded.  With regard to the pink letter, what makes the most sense so me is that when the 'Freys" return they report that Theon and Arya were nowhere to be found.  This causes the Boltons to panic because Jon can easily tell everyone that Jeyne is not Arya.  That is why they send the letter which is blackmailing Jon into silence.  "you tell the world that's not arya, we tell the world you sent Mance Ryder to WF to interfere in the realms business and we can remove you from power without causing trouble."

 

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10 hours ago, divica said:

The part about stannis going north to fight the wildling is true. I don t have the text here but I am 99% sure that the nw asked for help to defeat the wildlings and that davos had to convence stannis because he wasn t very inclined to go. He only decided to go because he could start conquering the 7 kingdoms with the north. The rest is speculation, but stannis does seem obecessed with the IT...

Stannis wasn't aware the NW was in danger as Alester Florent kept the letter from him, believing they were too busy in the south to bother with the north. When Davos reads the letter to Stannis, that's the first he hears of any danger at the Wall.

He goes north because Davos convinces him that he is mistaken to take the throne before saving the kingdom, and that he should in fact do the reverse. The wildlings aren't an existential threat that the kingdom needs to be saved from, it's the Others. 

 
Quote
"I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne." Stannis pointed north. "There is

 where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight."

 
"His name may not be spoken," Melisandre added softly. "He is the God of Night and Terror, Jon Snow, and these shapes in the snow are his creatures."
 
 
Given that he acknowledges it was wrong to focus on the throne over saving the realm, and given he clearly identifies the Others as the foe he needs to save the realm from, it's obvious he's prioritising the war against the Others over the war for the throne. You say he's obsessed with being king, but it was only by appealing to his sense of responsibility to keep the kingdom safe that Melisandre could convince him to burn Edric. If anything leads him down a tragic path, it would be that sense of responsibility.
Edited by The Drunkard

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On 12/22/2017 at 2:30 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

how?

The banker's group is smaller and faster. They headed to find stannis and met Jeyne and Theon when they were headed to the wall to meet Jon and took them with. Crowfood was grinning because he had dug a trap under the show in front of winterfell's gate. He was blowing horns to goad bolton men out of winterfell and into the trap. I do believe a frey lost his life in the trap  

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Stannis is as good as dead. Defeating the Boltons is not up to him. He will die and won't be much more then a footnote in Westerosi history. 

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What about the frozen lake full of holes from ice fishing? Any possibility that might come into play?

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stannis is going to kick some ass. cue montage scene with inspirational music a la rocky or team america

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53 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

What about the frozen lake full of holes from ice fishing? Any possibility that might come into play?

I think we all agree that stannis is going to sink some freys and there are several smart methods of doing it (I don t believe in the lamp theory because scouts, people realizing they are walking on ice or decent visibility would ruin it).

The problem I think stannis is going to have is after the freys. His army is going to steal the food from the freys which are slightly less than them, no prob. BUT now that fArya is safe won t the northern clans disband? At least some of them should! 

Then stannis will have to persuade the rest of the northern to stay with him and siege winterfell? After this disastrous march I don t think anyone wants to stay outside of winterfell with so little food. So either stannis has a very good plot to take winterfell or he is doomed. 

And to further stannis tragic fate there might be a norther conspiracy, mance's ploy, roose's stratagem and ramsay's secret plans. When there are so many variables around we can be almost sure that stannis is going be fucked in some unpredictable way. Hell, as far as I remmember only the clans have animals similar to horses in stannis army. Can you imagine how much people ramsay and his 600 calvary can kill if they shoot arrows from their horses while stannis is marching to winterfell? It would be 3 days of hell!

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