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US Politics: For Whom the Bell Tolls


Fragile Bird

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5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I just read a good bit of analysis on WaPo about why there was such a spread of numbers. Fox News actually has a combination of landlines and cell phone data while Emerson is landline only. Jones has a huge lead among cellphone users making the Fox News poll better for him. A different poll that used a combo had not such a huge disparity for cell phone users, but still Jones a bit ahead. And the ground game may be helping a fair bit. Turnout modeling is also pretty tough to do.

Still, I don't want to hope too much. It will be a close run thing.

As always, turnout will be the differentiating factor. And it's impossible to model with so many factors going on right now.

 

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18 minutes ago, Mexal said:

As always, turnout will be the differentiating factor. And it's impossible to model with so many factors going on right now.

 

So many other factors include not least, not least at all, voter repression, just starting with the closing of places in predominately African American communities and areas, where one can obtain valid i.d. and do voter registration, such as motor vehicle registration departments.

Then, though, is this:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/getting-out-the-black-vote-in-alabama

 

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15 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I just read a good bit of analysis on WaPo about why there was such a spread of numbers. Fox News actually has a combination of landlines and cell phone data while Emerson is landline only. Jones has a huge lead among cellphone users making the Fox News poll better for him. A different poll that used a combo had not such a huge disparity for cell phone users, but still Jones a bit ahead. And the ground game may be helping a fair bit. Turnout modeling is also pretty tough to do.

Still, I don't want to hope too much. It will be a close run thing.

Hope all you can. Just steel yourself for a Moore win. It's not inevitable, but don't let the idea of a Moore win become intolerable as it is still likely something we will need to live with as just another negative outcome there needs to be an accounting for. Be prepared for that reality. If Jones wins, a Democrat becomes Senator in Alabama, a state that it should be close to impossible that happening and only because Moore is such an outstanding POS creep, consider that a bonus positive, like playing with house (or Senate) money in politics.

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I guess Mnuchin decided to try and salvage his dignity, because today, more than a week after the Senate passed its bill, Treasury finally released…something. It’s a single-page document that purports to forecast the Senate bill’s impact on federal revenues and U.S. growth. But it doesn’t do that, really. Instead it reads like a lame gag—as if someone decided to prank all the wonks demanding hard numbers with one of those springy snakes that jumps out of a Pringles can. You click on a PDF expecting some semblance of analysis and instead get a page of blather barely one step up from a big green dollar sign scrawled in crayon.

The Treasury Analysis of the Republican Tax Plan Is One Page and Contains No Actual Analysis

https://slate.com/business/2017/12/the-treasurys-analysis-of-the-republican-tax-plan-is-one-page-and-contains-no-actual-analysis.html

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22 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

The Treasury Analysis of the Republican Tax Plan Is One Page and Contains No Actual Analysis

https://slate.com/business/2017/12/the-treasurys-analysis-of-the-republican-tax-plan-is-one-page-and-contains-no-actual-analysis.html

Plutocrats, and the Conservative Clown Crew, trying to blow smoke up everyone’s ass, again.

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4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m asking, not as a trap, but out of genuine curiosity as that was the last episode of significant inflation in the US in living memory.

What is a reasonable rate of inflation in your view?

For what its worth, I was a teenager in the '70's.  One big issue of that time was the gas crunch.  Gas became scarce for various reasons (don't remember them very well) and high gas prices and scarcity may have fueled a lot of the inflation at the time. 

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22 minutes ago, Zorral said:

So many other factors include not least, not least at all, voter repression, just starting with the closing of places in predominately African American communities and areas, where one can obtain valid i.d. and do voter registration, such as motor vehicle registration departments.

Then, though, is this:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/getting-out-the-black-vote-in-alabama

 

Yes, very much this.  Alabama is hella conservative which meant Moore was probably always going to win due to political advantage.  However, intense voter suppression focused on citizens who typically vote democratic means that Moore can basically stop campaigning a month before the election and still win.  That's why to me it's always been a bit absurd that anyone suggests Jones might win.  Not gonna happen.  

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19 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Plutocrats, and the Conservative Clown Crew, trying to blow smoke up everyone’s ass, again.

The lesson Trump taught Republicans is that it’s now OK to openly lie in people’s faces. They aren’t even trying to cover their BS up anymore.

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Watching SHS get angry and indignant about journalists "knowingly misleading" the American public, his very own Goebbels may be as pathological as Trump himself.

Also, Trump knows better than anyone else what he did and did not do, and he has denied all allegations of sexual misconduct............

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

Yes, very much this.  Alabama is hella conservative which meant Moore was probably always going to win due to political advantage.  However, intense voter suppression focused on citizens who typically vote democratic means that Moore can basically stop campaigning a month before the election and still win.  That's why to me it's always been a bit absurd that anyone suggests Jones might win.  Not gonna happen.  

Love the pessimism. You might be right. You may also be wrong. Voter suppression is a thing, however, it's a known quantity and this election has been on the books for awhile now. If the volunteers are also helping people get registered to vote and get proper identification (like the volunteers who were helping the felons), then it can be overcome, especially in an special election with nothing else on the ballot and where turnout is typically low. We will see.

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4 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Love the pessimism. You might be right. You may also be wrong. Voter suppression is a thing, however, it's a known quantity and this election has been on the books for awhile now. If the volunteers are also helping people get registered to vote and get proper identification (like the volunteers who were helping the felons), then it can be overcome, especially in an special election with nothing else on the ballot and where turnout is typically low. We will see.

I'm definitely pessimistic about the future, though in this case is also realistic.

I also rely on the fact that I've been right about the outcomes of elections in the last year.  Was reasonably certain Trump would win, new Ossof would lose, etc.  Alabama will not send a Democratic senator to DC.  WinterFox will not eat her bra.  

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18 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I'm definitely pessimistic about the future, though in this case is also realistic.

I also rely on the fact that I've been right about the outcomes of elections in the last year.  Was reasonably certain Trump would win, new Ossof would lose, etc.  Alabama will not send a Democratic senator to DC.  WinterFox will not eat her bra.  

But did you also call any of the many, many Dem special election victories and/or Virginia, or are you just generally predicting that Dems will lose?

Don't get me wrong, I don't have any confidence in a Jones win myself, but an election like GA-06 is a pretty bad example of a predictable Dem loss, given how close it was and how close it should (not) have been.

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5 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

But did you also call any of the many, many Dem special election victories and/or Virginia, or are you just generally predicting that Dems will lose?

Don't get me wrong, I don't have any confidence in a Jones win myself, but an election like GA-06 is a pretty bad example of a predictable Dem loss, given how close it was and how close it should (not) have been.

 I haven't monitored every single election.  I just don't have the time and I'm not familiar with the culture or politics of every region.  I don't think I made any sort of specific call on Virginia because that one seemed obvious the Dem would win.  

Republicans hate women, children, queers, blacks and democrats more than they hate pedophiles.  Jones simply can't win in that state even if he were the only person on the ballot.

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23 hours ago, Ormond said:

The Nebraska national committewoman has resigned from the RNC over its support of Roy Moore:

http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/rnc-official-from-nebraska-quits-over-group-s-support-of/article_e25992b6-de8a-11e7-83e9-7fbb46dc0e32.html

Well, lets hope she resigned because he is pedo-monster and not because he wasn't conservative enough.

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This J20 protest prosecution is such a shit show. They have one of the defendant's camera monopod listed as a "baton" despite Pemberton's admission that no weapons were found on the defendant. Several memory cards, as well as that defendant's business cards for his journalism, were taken off him but were not listed on his property form.

 
 
 
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You have to wonder - if Moore wins decisively, will the Republican party huddle and decide to double down on pedophelia as a nationwide strategy?

Speaking of which, this was a pretty bad PR move. She is 2 years younger than Leigh Corfman was.

Video is here. Moore has zero chemistry with children. Or maybe she made him nervous.

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4 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

You have to wonder - if Moore wins decisively, will the Republican party huddle and decide to double down on pedophelia as a nationwide strategy?

Nah. They just won't give a fuck about any accusations of women, nor worry about what their candidates say.

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