Jump to content

US Politics: For Whom the Bell Tolls


Fragile Bird

Recommended Posts

37 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

You have to wonder - if Moore wins decisively, will the Republican party huddle and decide to double down on pedophelia as a nationwide strategy?

Speaking of which, this was a pretty bad PR move. She is 2 years younger than Leigh Corfman was.

Video is here. Moore has zero chemistry with children. Or maybe she made him nervous.

That's political malpractice right there. Also, the Republicans will simply have a joint Nazi/Pedophile ticket. And they'll run on a platform of allowing Putin to put liberals into prison camps.

Maybe Bannon as Pres and the head of NAMBLA as VP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some HoR guy from Illinois on CNN talking about N Korea,and something slightly more controversial I can't remember.

I don't know any of his official policy positions, but I am left wondering what the fuck someone who can effectively communicate a basic idea is doing in the republican party.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't really think the Dems should be the ones feeling pessimistic if Moore is elected - it's the Republicans that are in a lose-lose situation here.  Obviously, Moore winning is bad and an embarrassing embarrassment for the country, but all it would really prove is it's impossible for the Dems to win a Senate seat in Alabama.  That was already pretty much a given.  On the upside, the Dems will still get to run against Roy Moore, newest member of the GOP Congress next year.  It serves as a very bright line between the Dems and the GOP on sexual misconduct after the former initially bungled the moral high-ground with Conyers and (arguably) Franken.  It's very easy to imagine Moore as this cycle's Mark Foley.

That's not to say it isn't better politically for the Dems if Moore loses - it is, especially since Trump has impulsively made the election all about him over the past couple of weeks.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sanders-Clinton Commission Agrees on Changes to Make the Primaries More Open

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/democrats-agree-on-changes-to-make-the-primaries-more-open.html


The Partisan, Nihilist Case Against Robert Mueller
Attacks on the special counsel aren’t about misconduct—instead, they’re aimed at discrediting the very idea of professionalism.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/the-nihilist-partisan-case-against-robert-mueller/548015/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

How would that be different than normal?

It's not.

51 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

One downside to a Jones victory is it could lead Trump to push the Senate to change the filibuster rules again. 

It could but they seem resistant to that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/11/2017 at 2:30 PM, Tywin et al. said:

The lesson Trump taught Republicans is that it’s now OK to openly lie in people’s faces. They aren’t even trying to cover their BS up anymore.

The Treasury Departments “analysis” is not even as good as some paper that some college undergraduate hurriedly did at the last minute, while drunk, hung over, and stoned.

Though I’m sure it’s getting rave reviews at the CEO Business Clowntable.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Prediction time! Who you got for the Alsen, and why?

I'm going with Moore +10. Maybe even more. Partially this is my natural pessimism, but it's also backed by the following:

  • Alabama is stupidly conservative
  • Alabama went hugely for Trump, so his endorsement and campaign and robocall means a lot
  • In general, higher turnout favors the group that is typically more prevalent - so more Alabama turnout means more conservatives
  • A lot of people just don't think Jones represents them well in Alabama, and they're probably right

The polls are cool and all, but they have basically no basis to predict on (special elections in offyears are just not that common), so they're having to guess on what the base model is. Given how much press there is here and how much attention is given, I'd say this is going to look a lot more like a regular election - and that heavily favors Moore. This is similar to GA-06, where higher turnout ended up favoring the Republican a bit more simply because there were more Republicans in that district.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Prediction time! Who you got for the Alsen, and why?

I'm going with Moore +10. Maybe even more. Partially this is my natural pessimism, but it's also backed by the following:

  • Alabama is stupidly conservative
  • Alabama went hugely for Trump, so his endorsement and campaign and robocall means a lot
  • In general, higher turnout favors the group that is typically more prevalent - so more Alabama turnout means more conservatives
  • A lot of people just don't think Jones represents them well in Alabama, and they're probably right

The polls are cool and all, but they have basically no basis to predict on (special elections in offyears are just not that common), so they're having to guess on what the base model is. Given how much press there is here and how much attention is given, I'd say this is going to look a lot more like a regular election - and that heavily favors Moore. This is similar to GA-06, where higher turnout ended up favoring the Republican a bit more simply because there were more Republicans in that district.

If it was set at 5.5, I'd take the over

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Prediction time! Who you got for the Alsen, and why?

I'm going with Moore +10. Maybe even more. Partially this is my natural pessimism, but it's also backed by the following:

  • Alabama is stupidly conservative
  • Alabama went hugely for Trump, so his endorsement and campaign and robocall means a lot
  • In general, higher turnout favors the group that is typically more prevalent - so more Alabama turnout means more conservatives
  • A lot of people just don't think Jones represents them well in Alabama, and they're probably right

The polls are cool and all, but they have basically no basis to predict on (special elections in offyears are just not that common), so they're having to guess on what the base model is. Given how much press there is here and how much attention is given, I'd say this is going to look a lot more like a regular election - and that heavily favors Moore. This is similar to GA-06, where higher turnout ended up favoring the Republican a bit more simply because there were more Republicans in that district.

Once the media nationalized the race, Moore was guaranteed to win, just as the media guaranteed an ossoff loss by nationalizing that race.

So I think probably Moore + 12 and within seconds of the results becoming clear, fez posts that this loss is actually an enormous victory for democrats.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nate Silver has an article about how the race in Alabama is basically anybody's guess -- the polls range from +9 for Moore to +10 for Jones and it depends on the various assumptions the pollsters make. It will be an interesting test of how well the anti-Moore propaganda campaign worked and I don't know enough to even guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...