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Genetic coding- 100% real world or fantasy for literature?


The Fattest Leech

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31 minutes ago, Damon_Tor said:

Or he may have finally figured out that his blonde hair and his wife's red hair couldn't possibly produce his son's brown hair.

Is Robert's hair light, medium or dark brown?

I have a lot of natural blondes and redheads in my family and in the area where I grew up as well. They can have light/medium brown-haired children but I've not seen any with dark brown hair.

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30 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Hoster forcing Lysa to drink moon tea permanently damaged her ability to produce viable offspring.

That's very likely. Provoking an abortion after the first trimester can result in very serious consequences. Because she actually wanted to have the baby it's very likely she was hiding the pregnancy from her father until it was impossible not to notice, resulting in a late abortion. Hoster mentions a lot of blood. An early miscariage usually is like a heavy flow and some cramping and that's it. Not very noteworthy. A late abortion may take full labour, contractions, hemorrhages, the birth of a fetus (living or dead), placenta delivery... it's a very sad and traumatizing thing to go through or witness. Very dangerous too. Specially before courettage was possible and "remainings" (much more commom in miscarriages than actual delivery of a full-term child) would become infected.

Also, Lysa was able to conceive but not the carry a prengnancy to term. She had at least five pregnancies that ended up in miscarriages. That is a very strong indicative the problem was in her uterus, not in her eggs or her cycling or her hormones and definetely NOT in Jon Arryn's sperm. 

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10 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

 

I have a lot of natural blondes and redheads in my family and in the area where I grew up as well. They can have light/medium brown-haired children but I've not seen any with dark brown hair.

Red and blond may produce light brown, that much is true. Auburn is quite darker than "red hair" and someone with auburn hair could have medium/dark brown haired children. 

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1 minute ago, Lady Dacey said:

Red and blond may produce light brown, that much is true. Auburn is quite darker than "red hair" and someone with auburn hair could have medium/dark brown haired children. 

Basically any kind on color can produce any other color as long as some predecessor had that color and we don't know hair color's of hair for several generations for most people. Even people in books are saying like: "Baratheon's always had black hair" That is just a stereotype there has been Baratheon's with all kinds of hair color since they married other houses.

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8 hours ago, Lady Dacey said:

 

I truly doubt any of the people proposing "genetic theories" of looks and abilities actually has studied genetics at all!! Their assumptions are very misguided and based on simple (and irreal) high school Mendelian Genetics. I've actually studied genetics in university, and it's just very different and much more complex than people seem to assume... really. In real life there's much to understand yet! I can tel you most inherited phenotical characteristics are very complex and determined by the interaction of several different genes that play different roles at supressing or enhancing one another, that's called a poligenic feature. Just for eye color for example there are at least 16 different loci (places where genes are located) involved! It's definitely not as simple a simple AA x aa = Aa. Not even close. That's the exception of how inherited characteristics work, not the rule.

It makes no sense to try and understand asoiaf inheritance under the light of real world genetics. 

Completely agree.

I've seen a lot of Punnet square genetics touted on this forum which doesn't even stand up to empirical observation that we see on the street everyday. It's a lot more complex than we learned in Bio 101.

And furthermore, it's yet another example of the forum community assuming GRRM is omniscient and neglecting to ask: (1) Is it plausible that GRRM has learned this in school? (No due to his age and the state of genetics) and (2) Would he even want to learn genetics? (Highly doubtful given his other interests) and (3) Even if the answer is yes to (1) and (2), would it be applicable to ASOIAF? (No as it's a fantasy series and you can't have Maury Povich just meander up one day and make genetics plot-relevant. 

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17 minutes ago, Lady Dacey said:

Red and blond may produce light brown, that much is true. Auburn is quite darker than "red hair" and someone with auburn hair could have medium/dark brown haired children. 

I have seen this.

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53 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Basically any kind on color can produce any other color as long as some predecessor had that color

Nope it does not work that way. Two people who lack the genes that decode the production of pigment can't have children with dark hair, it doesn't matter if their parents had dark hair... if they didn't get genes for it they can't pass them along. No genes "skip" generations, phenotypes "skip" generations because they are determined by multiple genes. You can only pass to your children what you own (though you don't manifest everything you own).

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24 minutes ago, Lady Dacey said:

Nope it does not work that way. Two people who lack the genes that decode the production of pigment can't have children with dark hair, it doesn't matter if their parents had dark hair... if they didn't get genes for it they can't pass them along. No genes "skip" generations, phenotypes "skip" generations because they are determined by multiple genes. You can only pass to your children what you own (though you don't manifest everything you own).

If they don't have the genes for dark hair child can't have them. But not all genes are used that a human has in his DNA, so that is why generation skipping happens.

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2 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

Or he may have finally figured out that his blonde hair and his wife's red hair couldn't possibly produce his son's brown hair.

Or Ned figured out that Cersei's kids weren't Robert's because gold always yielded to coal.

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17 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

However, there are certain others that seem to believe that our author is using his own, much more simplified, version of genetics for the literary intent of telling a story.

That's my take on it. I'll also add that now we know real world genetics is not as simple as BB/bb/etc unless you're talking fruit flies. :D

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14 hours ago, Lady Dacey said:

 

It makes no sense to try and understand asoiaf inheritance under the light of real world genetics. 

This is kinda how I feel as well. And as mentioned above, fruit flies aren't humans. There could be some real world "code" that could apply to this, but I think for the purpose of literary suspense (and tricksiness) the author seems to be following what suits him.

13 hours ago, LynnS said:

The problem that I have with Robert Baratheon only producing black hair/blue eyes is that we only have a small sample of his sixteen offspring to support that assumption.  Of his seven known bastards, only three of them are confirmed to have both these traits (Gendry, Edric,Mya); two are only confirmed to have black hair only (Bella, Barra - Bella's story is somewhat questionable) and the twins have no description in the text.  There are eight others who are not found at all, if you believe Maggy the Frog's prophecy.  If you are only looking for black hair/blue eyes; then that is all you will find. 

I don't think we will ever see Robert's other children, so we may never know... or not ;)

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I don't think the 'seed is strong' argument is about physical characteristics but rather, the importance of one of his offspring. 

Yes. The idea of the seed only meaning the looks is kinda flat in this case. This idea of the double entendre is all over the place in the story. We readers may think looks, but chances are it will come to the importance of the offspring.

This follows along with the concept Jaime explains and Jon acts out that the right thing to do is not always easy, and sometimes contradicts windy, wordy, oaths... but it is still the right thing to do. Sorry, Jaime totally worded it better than I did :P

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I'll also point out that corns are seeds to quote Ravenous Readers.  So when that precocious bird, Mormont's Raven says that Jon Snow is the Corn King; what is Martin telling us?  Is Jon the 'seed' of a king?  

 

Quite possibly if that is what the corn code means.

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15 hours ago, Pukisbaisals said:

I agree. I tried to explain this pattern in this thread on Targaryen heredity

First pregnancy affects the mother genes somehow andsecond child doesn't inherit her otherwise dominant traits. Maybe it can be explained as sort of microchimerism (our world phenomenon),  telegony  or even some transmitted infectious factor which switches maternal color genes off.

As far as I could tell there is no need to have the mother be affected physically with some gene change in the egg cells in her ovaries ...

Martells already married into the same Lyseni family as did Viserys II (around the same generation), and thus the Martells may be carriers of recessive Valyrian genes. The Targ and Valyrian features fit the descriptions of various types of albinism.

Before anyone protests against Valyrians are Albinos... There are multiple types of albinism and the severity differs individual and per type. Hell you even have types that allow for cooler areas of the body to have normal melanin production (real world example - Siamese Cats), allowing for Daynes to be carriers of such a form of albinism; or a type where children can tan normally from a certain age. Not all albinism has to take the form of Bloodraven's and even he has no issues whatsoever with acuity, even though he definitely should, for his eyes are red, implying that neither layer, nor even the one serving as screen against in-falling light, of his retina has any pigment. The latter should make it impossible for him to have the acuity to shoot arrows with the acuity of a hawk, and yet he can. So, whatever you believe, George is definitely only using a fantasy-form of albinism.

Notice how Daynes and Hightowers are all houses who thrived and reigned on islands, that are famous location for genetic drift and therefore allowing recessive genes to become a phenotype on islands, including spontanenous albinistic forms of mutatiation over the passed 1000 years. Genetic drift would also apply to Lys AND and the Valyrian peninsula.

In Leech's original thread I worked out the family tree:

I think it likely that George just happened to pick the firstborn whenever deciding appearances of mixed phenotype marriages with a Targ to have the non-Valyrian features, when the marriage had the following set-up

Targ (aa) and non-Targ (aN) with a being some form of recessive albinism and N being a not-albinistic gene. Very simplistically there's a 50% chance that a child would look like a non-Targ in such a marriage (have aN), and 50 % that it does have Valyrian features (aa). But as a writer, and especially if you have a thematic thing for the "rightful heir" (aka firstborn, regardless of gender) not looking like he or she's supposed to look. When you have emperors and kings in your fantasy series, trouble logically follows whenever the heir to the throne isn't an expected "match": "it's a girl! => let's dance with dragons," or "he doesn't look like a Valyrian => His dad is a bastard, not fathered by the king! Yeah, sure full Valyrian, but wrong brother." There wouldn't be a Dance of Dragons if Viserys I's heir had been a son. Daemon Blackfyre wouldn't have been given Blackfyre if Daeron had been wed to some Valyrian looking woman or a non-Dornish and his heir Baelor hadn't looked so Dornish. Looks don't have that big an impact if you're not the heir or potential rival to the inheritance. 

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11 hours ago, Lady Dacey said:

I truly doubt any of the people proposing "genetic theories" of looks and abilities actually has studied genetics at all!! Their assumptions are very misguided and based on simple (and irreal) high school Mendelian Genetics. I've actually studied genetics in university, and it's just very different and much more complex than people seem to assume... really. In real life there's much to understand yet! I can tel you most inherited phenotical characteristics are very complex and determined by the interaction of several different genes that play different roles at supressing or enhancing one another, that's called a poligenic feature. Just for eye color for example there are at least 16 different loci (places where genes are located) involved! It's definitely not as simple a simple AA x aa = Aa. Not even close. That's the exception of how inherited characteristics work, not the rule.

It makes no sense to try and understand asoiaf inheritance under the light of real world genetics. 

Well, I think we can use "rudimentary/simplistic" genetics into explaining George's world building insofar that it's FAR MORE likely for George Martin to use some vague, simplistic Mendelian genetic conditions to paste onto whichever family tree (that is completely unrealistic) than him using real world complex genetics. After all, the author does not have a master in biology. George also wants to write semi-realistic ... with that I mean - George is writing fantasy, not scifi, but he wants it to appear real and similar to our world at "first glance". So, he's not gonna have blonde haired twins have black haired children. That would be just weird to a modern reader. And a black-haired mother isn't going to have a blonde child, an auburn haired child and a black-haired child from the same father either, without providing for some hint that this is either magically caused or some genetic trickery.

Neither the average reader nor George can be expected to have knowledge of in-depth complex real-world-genetics. The average reader and George can be expected to have some rudimentary and hazy recollection of Mendelian genetics. And it is certainly to be expected that George will apply it very rudimentary to allocate the "typical" house looks, and to rudimentary mess around with it when having to write down a family tree for reference once writing.

What bugs me about some genetic theories is not that they rely on Mendelian Genetics, but faux-Mendelian genetics, or worse espouse what they try to sell as a "scientific sounding theory" that completely fails even internal logic or refuses to apply logical reasoning whenever they hit the obstacle to their theory.

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6 hours ago, Lady Dacey said:

I get your meaning and I can see the good intentions in everybody's work trying to make sense of it all, my point is: high school level biology and some googleing is not enough to understand how genes work. As I've stated before there are at least sixteen different genes involved in eye colour determination. That's why there are several different shades and it's not as simple as "two brown eyed people may have a blue eye offspring" even the real world. Genetics is a very very complicated subject and we don't yet know how inheritance works for most of human phenotipycal characteristics even in the real world. For real. I've studied it at university level. 

Don't forget "physics", as your simplistic genetic explanation forgets to explain that genetics can only determine the amount and which type of melanin is produced in the retina: that is yellow, red and brown pigment in one layer and black or nothing in the second typed layer. It is a physical effect, not genetics of pigment, that determines what type of "structural color" the observer of eyes sees: (dark) brown eyes, blue eyes, amber, hazel, green, violet, red. Blue and green and red and violet pigment doesn't exist.

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13 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

No matter how far back Ned searched in the brittle yellowed pages, always he found the gold yielding before the coal.

  • 1. This last detail alone should show how real world genetics plays little to nothing in this fantasy story with dragons and human-tree hybrids. 2. There is no way one genetic makeup would withstand the years of time and mixed breeding and still look undisturbed for centuries.

1. On the contrary, this part actually proves that real world genetic is present in ASOIAF.

In ASOIAF "the gold yielding before the coal" = in real world "b gene is recessive, B gene is dominant". b-gene - light color, B-gene - dark color.

Person with BB genes has dark hair. Person with bb genes has light hair. And person with Bb genes has DARK hair, because B is dominant over recessive b.

Let's say that B is "stronger" than b, and will always win in their "genetic fight".

If one of the parents have BB genes, then doesn't matter what genes has the other parent, because the child gets one gene from one parent, and the other gene from the other parent. So in case if one of parents have only B genes, then he/she will pass to his/her child only B gene, and in combination with ANY gene, received from the other parent, the child will be dark-haired. Like this:

Parent 1 (BB), Parent 2 (BB), Parent 3 (Bb), Parent 4 (bb).

Parent 1 (1B 2B), Parent 2 (3B 4B), Parent 3 (5B 6b), Parent 4 (7b 8b).

Parent 1 + Parent 2 = (1B 2B) + (3B 4B) = (1B+3B) or (1B+4B) or (2B+3B) or (2B+4B).

Parent 1 + Parent 2 = four possible combinations of their two pairs of genes, the child will also have a pair of genes. Out of that pair one gene the child received from first parent, and second gene from second parent. In combination of two parents with only B genes, all possible gene models, all four of them, will be only pair of B - BB <- dark coloring. Possible children of Parent 1 and Parent 2 can have this combination of genes - 1B3B, 1B4B, 2B3B, 2B4B.

Parent 1 + Parent 3 = (1B 2B) + (5B 6b) = (1B+5B) or (1B+6b) or (2B+5B) or (2B+6b).

Parent 1 + Parent 3 = four combinations, all four possible children will have dark coloring, but two out of them will be also carriers of b gene, and thus there is a possibility for their own children to be born with light coloring - 1B5B, 2B5B, 1B6b, 2B6b.

Parent 1 + Parent 4 = (1B 2B) + (7b 8b) = (1B+7b) or (1B+8b) or (2B+7b) or (2B+8b).

Parent 1 + Parent 4 = four combinations, all four possible children will have dark coloring, but all four out of them will be also carriers of b gene, and thus there is a possibility for their own children to be born with light coloring - 1B7b, 1B8b, 2B7b, 2B8b.

For a person with BB genes, it is possible to have descendants with both dark coloring, or light coloring, but it will depend on with whom they and their children and grandchildren will cross their genes.

For example if Baratheons:

1) will be marrying and having children with other dark-haired people, carriers of BB genes or carriers of Bb genes, and their own children will also chose for themself a dark-haired spouses, then their offsprings of many generations, will carry on two BB genes, and will have dark coloring.

2) But if they will mix for a few generations with light-haired people, carriers of bb genes, then eventually their B gene will be lost, and their offspring will have light coloring.

Offsprings from first example is Robert, Stannis and Renly. They are carriers of BB genes. And thus all their children will have dark coloring. Rhaelle Targaryen was carrier of bb genes, but after two generations of mixing with carriers of BB or Bb genes, all three of her grandsons had only B genes, and didn't looked like Valyrians.

Offsprings from second example is Jocelyn Baratheon (wife of Aemon Targaryen, her mother was Alyssa Velaryon, from her she got her b gene), and daughter of Jocelyn and Aemon - Rhaenys Targaryen (she got her b gene from both of her parents).

There's also Elia Martell, who was carrier of Bb genes, and thus her daughter Rhaenys had Bb genes, and her son Aegon had bb genes, like his father Rhaegar (bb). Elia got her b gene from her Valyrian ancestors - her grandmother was Daenerys Targaryen, and husband of Daenerys Maron Martell was also a grandson of Valyrian - Drazenko Rogare.

Mariah Martell also was grandchild of Drazenko Rogare, she was carrier of Bb genes, and same as Elia, passed to some of her children her B gene and dark coloring, while to others she passed her b gene and light coloring.

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2. There is no way one genetic makeup would withstand the years of time and mixed breeding and still look undisturbed for centuries.

And it didn't. It didn't remained undisturbed.

Rhaenys Targaryen, that was half-Baratheon thru her mother Jocelyn Baratheon, had traditional Targaryen looks and silver hair.

So even though "the seed is strong", if mixed with other DIFFERENT seed, for a few generations, then eventually at certain point it won't pass to next generation, and thus will be lost.

Targaryens and Baratheons lineage from above, is uncompleted version, later I updated it, and this is the final version:

1. characters descriptions:

Spoiler

Father of Valaena Velaryon was from Velaryon family, a Valyrian. And her mother was Targaryen. Thus Valaena had typical Valyrian looks, and was carrier of bb genes <- this is proved by the fact that all of her three children were typical Valyrians.

"Valaena Velaryon was a member of House Velaryon and the wife of Aerion Targaryen, Lord of Dragonstone, and the mother of Visenya Targaryen, Aegon I Targaryen, and Rhaenys Targaryen.[1]

She was half-Targaryen herself, through her mother, an as of yet unidentified member of House Targaryen.[1]"

Valaena's husband Aerion was son of Targaryen father, and unindentified mother. But in those times everyone in his family married with other Valyrians. It was not long after Doom of Valyria, and prior Aegon's Conquest, so Targaryens of that era didn't mixed with non-Valyrians. Thus Aerion was carrier of bb genes <- this is proved by the fact that all of his three children, from his Valyrian wife, were typical Valyrians.

But even if his mother was a non-Valyrian, and was a carrier of BB genes, or Bb genes, and thus Aerion himself could have been either carrier of Bb or carrier of bb, he passed to his three legitimate children only his b gene. Because if any of them had B genes and were Bb, then they would have been of dark coloring. But they weren't, thus all three were carriers of bb genes:

"Like her siblings, Visenya possessed the classical Valyrian features: long, silver-gold hair, which she often braided or bound up in rings, and purple eyes.[2][3]

Aegon was tall, broad shouldered and powerful in appearance, with purple eyes and short-cut silver-gold hair.

Rhaenys was a beautiful woman[3] with silver-gold hair, which she kept long and wore loose"

"Aerion Targaryen was a Lord of Dragonstone and the son of Lord Daemion Targaryen. Aerion was the husband of Valaena Velaryon, and their children were Visenya, Aegon the Conqueror, and Rhaenys Targaryen. Aerion was also rumored to have been the father of Orys Baratheon.[1]"

Mother of Orys Baratheon is unindentified, but based on his father being a typical Valyrian, and Orys himself having non-Valyrian looks, seems that his mother was a non-Valyrian, and had black hair and black eyes, that she passed to her son. And because she was a non-Valyrian, Aerion didn't married with her, and didn't legitimized their son Orys. Could be that Orys' mother was carrier of BB genes, or Bb genes.

"Orys was the rumored bastard half-brother of Aegon I Targaryen by their father Aerion, Lord of Dragonstone." "Orys had black hair and black eyes.[4]" "Princess Argella Durrandon was the daughter and only child of Argilac the Arrogant, the last Storm King. After her father was killed in Aegon's Conquest, she married Orys Baratheon"

"Aenys I Targaryen was the second Targaryen king to sit the Iron Throne. He was the son of King Aegon I Targaryen by his sister-wife Queen Rhaenys Targaryen."

"Jaehaerys was the third son and fourth child of Prince Aenys Targaryen and his wife, Lady Alyssa Velaryon.[6] " "According to a semi-canon source, Jaehaerys had the purple eyes and silver hair of House Targaryen." "Jaehaerys married his younger sister Alysanne.[5] " They had 9 children, among them Aemon Targaryen, that later married with Jocelyn Baratheon.

"According to a semi-canon source, Alysanne was slim of waist and small of breast, with a long neck, a fair complexion and a high forehead. She was tall and straight, unbowed by time. She had clear blue eyes and high cheekbones. In old age her hair turned white as snow."

"Alyssa Velaryon, the widow of King Aenys I Targaryen, married Robar Baratheon, Lord of Storm's End, in 50 AC. The marriage produced two children, Boremund and Jocelyn.[3][2]"

"Robar Baratheon was Lord of Storm's End and head of House Baratheon. He was Lord Orys Baratheon’s grandson."

"Princess Rhaenys was the daughter of Jocelyn Baratheon, the daughter of Lord Robar Baratheon of Storm's End, and Prince Aemon Targaryen, the heir of King Jaehaerys I Targaryen."

"Prince Aemon Targaryen was a member of House Targaryen. He was the secondborn son of King Jaehaerys I Targaryen and Queen Alysanne Targaryen."

"Rhaenys had traditional Targaryen beauty.[3] She was fifty-five years old during the Dance of the Dragons and was still as fierce and fearless as she had been at twenty-two. By then she had a lean lined face and silver hair streaked with white.[2] "

2. gene models:

Spoiler

1. In case if Aerion's mother was carrier of bb genes, Targaryen line:

2. In case if Aerion's mother was carrier of Bb genes, Targaryen line:

3. In case if Aerion's mother was carrier of BB genes, Targaryen line:

Daemion Targaryen + wife = Aerion Targaryen.

1) bb + bb = bb, 2) bb +Bb = Bb or bb, 3) bb + BB = Bb

Aerion Targaryen + Valaena Velaryon = Visenya, Aegon, Rhaenys.

1) bb + bb = bb, 2) Bb + bb = Bb or bb, or bb + bb = bb, 3) Bb + bb = Bb or bb

None of their three children were carriers of Bb genes, because if they were, then they wouldn't have had Targaryen looks. Thus even if there was a B gene in their father, it wasn't transferred further to Aegon I and his sisters.

(Aerion 1b2b or 3B4b) + (Valaena 21b22b) = 1b21b, 1b22b, 2b21b, 2b22b, (3B21b), (3B22b), 4b21b, 4b22b <- Aegon, Rhaenys, Visenya. Six possible gene models.

Aegon Targaryen + Rhaenys Targaryen = Aenys I Targaryen.

bb + bb = bb

(Aegon 1b21b, 1b22b, 2b21b, 2b22b, 4b21b, 4b22b) + (Rhaenys 1b21b, 1b22b, 2b21b, 2b22b, 4b21b, 4b22b) = 60 combinations, out of them 16 not repetitive = (Aenys 1b1b, 1b22b, 21b1b, 21b22b, 1b2b, 21b2b, 21b21b, 1b4b, 21b4b, 22b2b, 22b22b, 22b4b, 2b2b, 2b4b, 4b4b)

Aenys I Targaryen + Alyssa Velaryon = Jaehaerys I, Alysanne.

bb + bb = bb, bb

(Aenys 1b1b, 1b22b, 21b1b, 21b22b, 1b2b, 21b2b, 21b21b, 1b4b, 21b4b, 22b2b, 22b22b, 22b4b, 2b2b, 2b4b, 4b4b) + (Alyssa 23b24b) = 10 models = 1b23b, 1b24b, 2b23b, 2b24b, 4b23b, 4b24b, 21b23b, 21b24b, 22b23b, 22b24b <- Jaehaerys, Alysanne.

Jaehaerys I Targaryen + Alysanne Targaryen = Aemon I Targaryen, and 8 other children.

bb + bb = bb

(Jaehaerys 1b23b, 1b24b, 2b23b, 2b24b, 4b23b, 4b24b, 21b23b, 21b24b, 22b23b, 22b24b) + (Alysanne 1b23b, 1b24b, 2b23b, 2b24b, 4b23b, 4b24b, 21b23b, 21b24b, 22b23b, 22b24b) = 1b1b, 1b2b, 1b4b, 1b21b, 1b22b, 1b23b, 1b24b, 2b23b, 4b23b, 21b23b, 22b23b, 23b23b, 23b24b <- Aemon.

Aemon I Targaryen + Jocelyn Baratheon = Rhaenys Targaryen.

bb + ? = bb

To identify what pair of genes Jocelyn had, let's go back to Baratheon line.

Aerion Targaryen (1b2b or 3B4b) + mistress (? - 5b6b, 7B8b, 9B10B) = Orys Baratheon (BB or Bb).

Orys had dark hair and dark eyes, so he was either BB or Bb.

1b2b + 5b6b = 1b5b, 1b6b, 2b5b, 2b6b <- 100% light, not Orys' traits.

1b2b + 7B8b = 1b7B, 1b8b, 2b7B, 2b8b <- 50% dark or 50% light.

1b2b + 9B10B = 1b9B, 1b10B, 2b9B, 2b10B <- 100% dark.

3B4b + 5b6b = 3B5b, 3B6b, 4b5b, 4b6b <- 50% dark or 50% light.

3B4b + 7B8b = 3B7B, 3B8b, 4b7B, 4b8b <- 75% dark or 25% light.

3B4b + 9B10B = 3B9B, 3B10B, 4b9B, 4b10B <- 100% dark.

Based on this Orys' gene model could have been one of this 15:

1b7B, 1b9B, 1b10B, 2b7B, 2b9B, 2b10B, 3B5b, 3B6b, 3B7B, 3B8b, 3B9B, 3B10B, 4b7B, 4b9B, 4b10B.

Orys Baratheon + Argella Durandon = child (father or mother of Robar Baratheon)

(1b7B, 1b9B, 1b10B, 2b7B, 2b9B, 2b10B, 3B5b, 3B6b, 3B7B, 3B8b, 3B9B, 3B10B, 4b7B, 4b9B, 4b10B) + (?) = (?)

Argella Durandon could be BB, Bb, or bb.

Argella's genes - 11B12B, 12B13b, 13b14b.

1. (Orys 1b7B, 1b9B, 1b10B, 2b7B, 2b9B, 2b10B, 3B5b, 3B6b, 3B7B, 3B8b, 3B9B, 3B10B, 4b7B, 4b9B, 4b10B) + (Argella 11B12B, 12B13b, 13b14b) = 40 gene models for child of Orys and Argella (OB+AD).

(OB+AD) + spouse (?) = Robar Baratheon (?)

Spouse - 15B16B, 17b18b, 15B17b, 15B18b, 16B17b, 16B18b - six models.

(40 models for (OB+AD) 1b11B, 1b12B, 7B11B, 7B12B, 2b11B, 2b12B, 9B11B, 9B12B, 10B11B, 10B12B, 3B11B, 3B12B, 5b11B, 5b12B, 6b11B, 6b12B, 8b11B, 8b12B, 4b11B, 4b12B, 1b13b, 7B13b, 2b13b, 9B13b, 10B13b, 3B13b, 5b13b, 6b13b,  8b13b, 4b13b, 1b14b, 7B14b, 2b14b, 9B14b, 10B14b, 3B14b, 5b14b, 6b14b, 8b14b, 4b14b) + (Spouse 15B16B, 17b18b, 15B17b, 15B18b, 16B17b, 16B18b) = 56 gene models for Robar Baratheon.

Robar Baratheon + Alyssa Velaryon = Boremund and Jocelyn Baratheons.

(Robar 1b15B, 2b15B, 3B15B, 4b15B, 5b15B, 6b15B, 7B15B, 8b15B, 9B15B, 9B15B, 10B15B, 11B15B, 12B15B, 13b15B, 14b15B, 1b16B, 2b16B, 3B16B, 4b16B, 5b16B, 6b16B, 7B16B, 8b16B, 9B16B, 9B16B, 10B16B, 11B16B, 12B16B, 13b16B, 14b16B, 1b17b, 2b17b, 3B17b, 4b17b, 5b17b, 6b17b, 7B17b, 8b17b, 9B17b, 9B17b, 10B17b, 11B17b, 12B17b, 13b17b, 14b17b, 1b18b, 2b18b, 3B18b, 4b18b, 5b18b, 6b18b, 7B18b, 8b18b, 9B18b, 9B18b, 10B18b, 11B18b, 12B18b, 13b18b, 14b18b) + (Alyssa 19b20b) = 1b19b, 2b19b, 3B19b, 4b19b, 5b19b, 6b19b, 7B19b, 8b19B, 9B19b, 10B19b, 11B19b, 12B19b, 13b19b, 14b19b, 15B19b, 16B19b, 17b19b, 18b19b, 1b20b, 2b20b, 3B20b, 4b20b, 5b20b, 6b20b, 7B20b, 8b20b, 9B20b, 10B20b, 11B20b, 12B20b, 13b20b, 14b20b, 15B20b, 16B20b, 17b20b, 18b20b <- 36 models Boremund and Jocelyn.

Jocelyn Baratheon + Aemon I Targaryen = Rhaenys Targaryen.

(Jocelyn 1b19b, 2b19b, 3B19b, 4b19b, 5b19b, 6b19b, 7B19b, 8b19B, 9B19b, 10B19b, 11B19b, 12B19b, 13b19b, 14b19b, 15B19b, 16B19b, 17b19b, 18b19b, 1b20b, 2b20b, 3B20b, 4b20b, 5b20b, 6b20b, 7B20b, 8b20b, 9B20b, 10B20b, 11B20b, 12B20b, 13b20b, 14b20b, 15B20b, 16B20b, 17b20b, 18b20b) + (1b1b, 1b2b, 1b4b, 1b21b, 1b22b, 1b23b, 1b24b, 2b23b, 4b23b, 21b23b, 22b23b, 23b23b, 23b24b) = 140 models for Rhaenys Targaryen.

Gene models of Rhaenys, with Bb genes in them:

3B1b, 7B1b, 9B1b, 10B1b, 11B1b, 12B1b, 15B1b, 16B1b, 3B2b, 7B2b, 9B2b, 10B2b, 11B2b, 12B2b, 15B2b, 16B2b, 3B4b, 7B4b, 9B4b, 10B4b, 11B4b, 12B4b, 15B4b, 16B4b, 3B21b, 7B21b, 9B21b, 10B21b, 11B21b, 12B21b, 15B21b, 16B21b, 3B22b, 7B22b, 9B22b, 10B22b, 11B22b, 12B22b, 15B22b, 16B22b, 3B23b, 7B23b, 9B23b, 10B23b, 11B23b, 12B23b, 15B23b, 16B23b, 3B24b, 7B24b, 9B24b, 10B24b, 11B24b, 12B24b, 15B24b, 16B24b.

Gene models of Rhaenys, with bb genes in them:

1b1b, 2b1b, 4b1b, 5b1b, 6b1b, 8b1b, 13b1b, 14b1b, 17b1b, 18b1b, 19b1b, 20b1b, 1b2b, 2b2b, 4b2b, 5b2b, 6b2b, 8b2b, 13b2b, 14b2b, 17b2b, 18b2b, 19b2b, 20b2b, 1b4b, 2b4b, 4b4b, 5b4b, 6b4b, 8b4b, 13b4b, 14b4b, 17b4b, 18b4b, 19b4b, 20b4b, 1b21b, 2b21b, 4b21b, 5b21b, 6b21b, 8b21b, 13b21b, 14b21b, 17b21b, 18b21b, 19b21b, 20b21b, 1b22b, 2b22b, 4b22b, 5b22b, 6b22b, 8b22b, 13b22b, 14b22b, 17b22b, 18b22b, 19b22b, 20b22b, 1b23b, 2b23b, 4b23b, 5b23b, 6b23b, 8b23b, 13b23b, 14b23b, 17b23b, 18b23b, 19b23b, 20b23b, 1b24b, 2b24b, 4b24b, 5b24b, 6b24b, 8b24b, 13b24b, 14b24b, 17b24b, 18b24b, 19b24b, 20b24b.

Out of those 140 gene models, 56 are Bb, and 84 are bb. Probability for Rhaenys to have dark coloring was 40%, and 60% to have light coloring.

From her mother Jocelyn Baratheon, Rhaenys could have inherited this b genes - 1b, 2b, 4b, 5b, 6b, 8b, 13b, 14b, 17b, 18b, 19b, 20b. And from side of her father Aemon Targaryen - 1b, 2b, 4b, 21b, 22b, 23b, 24b.

Genes of her ancestors: Aerion Targaryen (1b, 2b, 4b), his mistress (5b, 6b, 8b), Argella Durandon (13b, 14b), spouse of child of Orys Baratheon and Argella (17b, 18b), Alyssa Velaryon (19b, 20b), Valaena Velaryon (21b, 22b), Alyssa Velaryon (23b, 24b).

 

Now lets take an example, where all characters, whose coloring isn't known for sure, we will take as BB - Orys Baratheon's  wife Argella Durandon, their child and that child's spouse, and their grandson Robar Baratheon. Then:

Robar Baratheon (BB) + Alyssa Velaryon (bb) = Boremund and Jocelyn Baratheons (Bb and Bb).

Jocelyn Baratheon (Bb) + Aemon I Targaryen (bb) = Rhaenys Targaryen (Bb, Bb, bb, bb) - even in this case Rhaenys still had 50% of chances to inherit Valyrian looks.

In case if Orys Baratheon, his wife Argella, their child and that child's spouse, all four were Bb:

Child of O&A (1B2b) + spouse (3B4b) = 1B3B, 1B4b, 2b3B, 2b4b <- Robar Baratheon's possible gene models.

Robar Baratheon (1B3B, 1B4b, 2b3B, 2b4b) + Alyssa Velaryon (5b6b) = 1B5b, 1B6b, 3B5b, 3B6b, 4b5b, 4b6b, 2b5b, 2b6b <- Jocelyn Baratheon.

Jocelyn Baratheon (1B5b, 1B6b, 3B5b, 3B6b, 4b5b, 4b6b, 2b5b, 2b6b) + Aemon I Targaryen (7b8b) = Rhaenys Targaryen (1B7b, 1B8b, 5b7b, 5b8b, 6b7b, 6b8b, 3B7b, 3B8b, 4b7b, 4b8b, 2b7b, 2b8b) - four Bb and eight bb, 1/3 chances for Rhaenys inheriting dark coloring, and 2/3 chances inheriting light coloring.

 

So even in worst case scenario, if among Rhaenys' ancestors, whose looks we don't know, there were carriers of dark color genes, she still had 50% chances to be born with Valyrian looks.

And why I think that it's possible, that dragons were brought on Planetos from another planet:

Spoiler

Most likely first dragons, and their original masters were aliens, that came to Planetos on giant spaceship:

"in Qarth, tales state dragons came from a second moon in the sky, which was scalded by the sun and cracked like an egg, and a million dragons poured forth. In Asshai, however, there are many tales - some impossibly ancient - which claim that dragons first appeared on the Shadow Lands and a people so ancient they have no name first tamed these dragons, brought them to Valyria and taught the Valyrians their arts before departing from the annals of history."

Second moon in the sky is a giant spaceship. People that brought dragons to Planetos, and taught Valyrians how to control them, were aliens that also came on that spaceship. And later they probably either became extinct, or eventually interbreeded with original inhabitants of Planetos. Shadow Lands near Asshai, are covered by a shadow casted by that spaceship, that is hanging in the sky in a stealth mode, invisible. Ghost grass that grows in Shadow Lands, is a mutant plant, affected by some sort of radiation, emanating from that ship. Anomalities in seasons change in Planetos, are caused by terraforming climate control device, that is still working on that spaceship. And nearly all magic in Planetos, is actually some sort of bio-technology of ancient aliens. The most developed "magic" are practiced by people, that live close to the Shadow. That's Planetos' version of Roswell's Area 51. Based on their ship being "scalded by the sun and cracked like an egg", probably their arrival to Planetos was result of an emergency. Their ship was broken, so they had to come to nearest inhabitable planet. And after that they were unable to leave, their ship was too damaged. Probably people on that spaceship were characters from one of GRRM's sci-fi works.

Aside from ASOIAF and its side stories, all other works of GRRM are sci-fi fiction about space and interstellar travels, people from dying planets traveling to new worlds, and stuff like that.

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9 minutes ago, Megorova said:

n real world "b gene is recessive, B gene is dominant". b-gene - light color, B-gene - dark color.

Person with BB genes has dark hair. Person with bb genes has light hair. And person with Bb genes has DARK hair, because B is dominant over recessive b.

The above is NOT REAL WORLD genetics, as real world genetics is complex, involving a varied number of pairs of genes, with several different combinations and various hues of results.

The whole basis you use to write the pedigree you listed is NON-REALISTIC, SIMPLIFIED MENDELIAN genetics, which works fine for ANY author writing out a pedigree of nobles in a family tree where the heir not looking like the standard phenotype can lead to doubts of paternity. It's not SCI-FI, but oversimplification and you can wave your hand at it with magic.

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1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

The average reader and George can be expected to have some rudimentary and hazy recollection of Mendelian genetics. And it is certainly to be expected that George will apply it very rudimentary to allocate the "typical" house looks, and to rudimentary mess around with it when having to write down a family tree for reference once writing.

That's where I disagree. I think GRRM purposefully put aside all basic Mendelian genetics. Inharitance of characteristics in Planetos has to do with "who has the stronger seed". I truly believe it's beside the point to try and come up with a theory that makes it possible for all Baratheons to have black hair always and forever. It's beside the point to wonder what makes the Targaeryan/Valyrian look to be very strong but not always the strongest. It's beside the point to actually fidget with lowercase and uppercase letters trying to find a way to make sense of it all. It doesn't make sense with Mendelian genetics, it certainly doesn't make sense to take into account some sort of "Planetos microchimerism". The world is somewhat magical... the seed is strong. Some of them are. Others, not so much. We can't make sense of it with a single genetic theory of Planetos. And that's ok.  Inharitance doesn't follow our rules in Planetos. It follows George's rules and those seem pretty loose.

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Quote

Rhaenys Targaryen, that was half-Baratheon thru her mother Jocelyn Baratheon, had traditional Targaryen looks and silver hair.

Alyssa > Jocelyn > Rhaenys

Alyssa herself was only half-Targ, born to father Aethon Velaryon, and unknown Targ mother. Alyssa was said to have the silver hair and purple eyes of Valyrians, not specifically the Targaryens. It is talked about in Sons of the Dragon that she has the silver hair and purple eyes of Valyria, "for Velaryons were an ancient family descended from Valyrian stock." This pleased Aenys enough that he claimed her to be his cousin, even though they were not actually blood related. So, Alyssa follows Valyrian coloring.


Again, Jocelyn was not the first born (and that is a big key, as described before). She was second, and she was born to Alyssa Velaryon (who follows Valyrian looks) and Robar Baratheon.

Which brings us to Rhaenys, She was an only child... and I don't believe there were any births/stillbirths before her. She follows two "mixed" silvers ( Jocelyn's Valyrian+Baratheon mix and Aemon Targ+Targ dad). The only description we have of her is when she is "old" (by ASOAIF standards), a bit wrinkly, and in her fifties, so the streaks of white in her silver hair could be white age streaks in silver age hair as black turns silver. However, she is part of the Targ family identity crisis (that GRRM confirmed) that was the Dance of Dragons.

And if we  go onto look at Rhaenys' children, her first born is brown hair and eyes following the first born "code", and then the subsequent children follow. This detail has a storytelling purpose for both Rhaenys and Laenor Velaryon.

*by the way, I am referring to the idea as a "code" just to use a simple term to assign the concept to.

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On 09.12.2017 at 8:58 AM, Crona said:

Such as Mariah Martell, I know that Megorova says her grandmother was Aliandra and Drazenko (even though, I can’t find anything that says they had children)

There is no information about them having children. Keep reading, I have evidences that support my theory ^_^

We don't know about all generations of all ancestors of current characters, or about all people from the past, in the world of Planetos. That's because the author hasn't yet written about many events, that he planned to write. GRRM planned to write several more books of Dunk&Egg adventures. If I remember correctly, one of those stories will take place in Dorne. Then we will get more information about characters from there. If Egg and Dunk will go to Dorne, then they for sure will be talking about other Valyrians that lived there. People like Drazenko Rogare, whose niece Larra Rogare was mother of Aegon IV. Dyanna Dayne that was Egg's mother. Mariah Martell that was Egg's grandmother. Daenerys Targaryen that was Egg's great aunt. We will get more information about Lord Bloodraven, Blackfyres Rebellions, Golden Company, etc. But even if they won't go to Dorne, there are still 3-9 books from that series, thus planty of pages to fill with information about all characters that we don't know yet.

But I'm basing my theory on information that we do know.

Spoiler

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Martell#Targaryen_Era

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Qoren_Martell

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Aliandra_Martell

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Drazenko_Rogare

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Mariah_Martell

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Daeron_II_Targaryen

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Daenerys_Targaryen_(daughter_of_Aegon_IV)

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Lewyn_Martell

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Elia_Martell

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Prince_of_Dorne

"Qoren Martell was the ruling Prince of Dorne and head of House Nymeros Martell during the reign of King Viserys I Targaryen.[2]

In 110 AC Prince Qoren Martell gave his support to the Triarchy in the war against Prince Daemon Targaryen and Lord Corlys Velaryon in the Stepstones.[12][13] Daemon's brother, King Viserys I Targaryen, spoke of wedding his daughter Rhaenyra to the Prince of Dorne as a way of finally uniting the Seven Kingdoms, though ultimately this did not occur.[13]

Qoren was eventually succeeded by his daughter, Princess Aliandra.[2]

Aliandra came young into her seat.

Aliandra was married to Drazenko Rogare, who would become the Prince Consort of Dorne due to the marriage.[3][4]

Drazenko died In or between 129 AC and 134 AC[1]

King Daeron I Targaryen conquered Dorne in 158 AC when the Prince of Dorne bent the knee at the Submission of Sunspear. Rebellion continued until Daeron's death in 161 AC,[15] after which his brother, King Baelor I, travelled to Sunspear and agreed to a peace with House Martell. This included a betrothal between Mariah Martell and Prince Daeron Targaryen.[16] Mariah's brother Maron was Daeron's most important supporter,[17] and upon Daeron's ascension, agreed to join Dorne under Targaryen rule. This became official in 187 AC, when Maron married Daeron's sister Daenerys.[18][19]

After King Daeron I had been killed in Dorne in 161 AC, King Baelor I Targaryen freed the Dornish hostages in King's Landing and returned them to Dorne personally, walking barefoot. Once he reached Sunspear, he spoke with the Prince of Dorne, and agreed upon a peace, which included the betrothal of Mariah to Baelor's cousin, Prince Daeron Targaryen. The two would marry once they were both of age.[1]

Mariah married Daeron years later, and would have four children by him: Baelor, Aerys, Rhaegel and Maekar.[3]

Daeron was born in 153.

Daenerys was born in 172.

By the time Daemon rebelled, he had been married to Rohanne of Tyrosh for years and had at least nine children with her, and Daenerys had already given Maron multiple heirs.[6]

During Daeron II's reign, Dornish influence at court increased, while Daeron's other lords began to grow dissatisfied with the concessions Maron had won during the negotiations. These complaints, among others, were reasons causing several lords to oppose Daeron II's rule during the First Blackfyre Rebellion.[20]

Prince Lewyn was the younger brother of the former ruling Princess of Dorne. He was appointed a member of the Kingsguard in service of King Aerys II Targaryen.

Elia Martell was born in 256 or 257.

Elia Martell was the fourth child and first daughter born to the ruling Princess of Dorne, and the second child to live past infancy. She was born a month premature, and her older brother Doran did not expect her to live, when he learned about her birth; she survived, however, though her health was always fragile thereafter.[13] During her youth she was very close to her younger brother, Oberyn,[17] to whom she was only one year apart.[13]

In 110 Quoren Martell wasn't married yet. Because Viserys I offered him to marry with his daughter Rhaenyra Targaryen. If Quoren was already married, Viserys wouldn't have offered him Rhaenyra.

Somewhere between 110 and 129-134 Quoren had married, his daughter Aliandra was born, grew up, and married with Drazenko Rogare.

Quoren died between 129 and 134, before death of Drazenko. After her father's death, Aliandra became ruler of Dorne. Drazenko died between 129 and 134, but after Quoren.

By the year 158, in Dorne there was another ruler, a Prince, he was next after Aliandra. The Prince that has bend the knee to Daeron I in 158, most likely was son of Aliandra and Drazenko. He was already born by 129 or 134, when his father died, thus in 158 he was 29-24+ years old, and already had a daughter Mariah, because he agreed to marry her to Daeron II, when they will both come of age.

Daeron II was born in 153, he turned 16 in 169, and in 170 was born his first son Baelor. Thus Daeron and Mariah married in 169, and a year later their first child was born.

Daenerys was born in 172, and married with Maron Martell (brother of Mariah) in 187.

Maron's son inherited Sunspear after him. Let's assume that Daenerys gave birth to her son in 187-190. Elia's mother was his daughter, and ruling Princess of Dorne. Her younger brother was Lewyn Martell, who served as Kingsguard to Aerys II.

Elia was born in 256 or 257. By that time Maron's son was 66-70 years old, so with age like that he was already definitely a grandfather, and also most likely already dead. And he was succided by his daughter - Elia's mother.

Thus Aliandra Martell and Drazenko Rogare were grandparents of Mariah and her brother Maron.

Maron Martell and his wife Daenerys Targaryen were great grandparents of Elia. (I thought that they were her grandparents, though in previous calculation I missed one generation.)

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