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Who whould win in election of Five Kings?


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No. The Vale would support Joffrey. They might not want to but they'd probably follow Lysa when Littlefinger tells her to Vote Joff, though some might break off and support Renly. Most of the Crownlands support him to.

Renly has the Stormlands and Reach yes, but the Reach is the most populous of all the Seven Kingdoms. Between them they should easily make more that a quarter of the total population.

I guess if we're eliminating independent candidates then yeah Balon would prob vot Joffrey and Robb would support Stannis. The Riverlands would support Renly though, and Dorne most likely would as well (of the three candidates he's the one they'd dislike the least I reckon).

Westerlands would support Joff.

So really, Renly would probably win by a landslide. He'd easily win the Crownlands over as well.

 

Basically, just using some roughly estimated figures, the amount of people following each of your three options would look something like this

Renly: Stormlands, Reach, Dorne, Riverlands- 55%

Stannis: The North, The Lords of the Narrow Sea- 10%

Joffrey: Mainland Crownlands, Westerlands, Iron Islands- 35%

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25 minutes ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

Results of election

  1. Stannis supported by Robb (North+Vale+Riverrun+Dorne+partially Crownlands) - 51%
  2. Renly (Stormlands+Reach) - 25%
  3. Joffrey supported by Balon (Westerlands+partially Crownlands+Iron Islands) - 24%

Dou you agree?

Just out of curiosity, how did you exactly came up with the poll results in percent? This is just a random number generator discussion I guess. Ok, here are mine:

Stanis: 4%

Joffrey: 21%

Calissa, a prostitute from Kings Landing: 36%

Garth, a farmer from the north: 39%.

 

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3 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

No. The Vale would support Joffrey. They might not want to but they'd probably follow Lysa when Littlefinger tells her to Vote Joff

What if they learn about Lannister incest?

5 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Dorne most likely would as well (of the three candidates he's the one they'd dislike the least I reckon).

What Dornish people want is justice for Elia and her children. And the best candidate for it is Stannis who has good reputation as master of laws and hates Lannisters.

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32 minutes ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

Results of election

  1. Stannis supported by Robb (North+Vale+Riverrun+Dorne+partially Crownlands) - 51%
  2. Renly (Stormlands+Reach) - 25%
  3. Joffrey supported by Balon (Westerlands+partially Crownlands+Iron Islands) - 24%

Dou you agree?

Nope.  Renly wins easily.  He's the best politician among the five.  So if you put it up for an election it will be Renly.

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7 minutes ago, Texas Hold Em said:

Nope.  Renly wins easily.  He's the best politician among the five.  So if you put it up for an election it will be Renly.

What did your great politician achieve in his life? Stormlands by his resemblance to Robert and Reach by marriage.  Catelyn was right to call him GREEN BOY.

 

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32 minutes ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

What did your great politician achieve in his life? Stormlands by his resemblance to Robert and Reach by marriage.  Catelyn was right to call him GREEN BOY.

 

I didn't say anything about Renly being good at leadership.  That's another thing entirely.  I just said he will win an election because he's the better politician among the choices.  Not that he would be any good after winning. 

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1 hour ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

Results of election

  1. Stannis supported by Robb (North+Vale+Riverrun+Dorne+partially Crownlands) - 51%
  2. Renly (Stormlands+Reach) - 25%
  3. Joffrey supported by Balon (Westerlands+partially Crownlands+Iron Islands) - 24%

Dou you agree?

Do these predicted results take into account the possible tampering and rigging by foreign States hacking into the weirnet?

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4 minutes ago, Blackwater Revenant said:

Do these predicted results take into account the possible tampering and rigging by foreign States hacking into the weirnet?

What about Cersei's unsecured ravens, and her relationship to the Bravosi sept raid? Several Westeros men lost their lives because of her carelessness! SAD!

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49 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Except Robb, none of these kings were even crowned by their own vassals.

Probably Renly would win, he has that politician's grinta that wins you elections. 

 

Renly was crowned by the Reach and Stormlands they all bent the knee at some point. 

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8 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Renly was crowned by the Reach and Stormlands they all bent the knee at some point. 

No, he declared himself King and they chose to support him. Mace Tyrell crowned him but Renly wasn't chosen to be King by his bannermen. There is a difference.

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1 hour ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

Results of election

  1. Stannis supported by Robb (North+Vale+Riverrun+Dorne+partially Crownlands) - 51%
  2. Renly (Stormlands+Reach) - 25%
  3. Joffrey supported by Balon (Westerlands+partially Crownlands+Iron Islands) - 24%

Dou you agree?

Renly's whole claim was based on his capabilities as a politician, his charisma, so if it came to a democratic process he has to have a major edge, especially over Stannis. Joffrey has the "incumbency" advantage and he's at least very pretty: he has the advantage of nobody knowing what a jerk he is behind closed doors. It's down to the two of them, IMO.

Are are your percentiles based on... landmass? Shouldn't they be based on population? The Reach is the most populous region by far, the North is virtually empty by comparison. Is this an "electoral college" system, where one candidate gets all the "electors" from a region?

1 hour ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

What if they learn about Lannister incest?

Scandals may or may not effect a political contest; in the novels, most people seem to be of the opinion that the incest is a lie Stannis and/or Eddard cooked up to seize power.

1 hour ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

What did your great politician achieve in his life? Stormlands by his resemblance to Robert and Reach by marriage.  Catelyn was right to call him GREEN BOY.

A marriage he secured via political skill. The smart play for the Tyrells would have been to marry her to Joffery: the fact that he was able to convince them otherwise and to rise up behind him in rebellion against the crown (when his own claim is solidly and unambiguously behind his brother's anyway) is extremely impressive. Olena Tyrell had faith that she was backing the right man, which is an important endorsement. She simply didn't count on magical assassination.

 

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1 hour ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

What if they learn about Lannister incest?

What Dornish people want is justice for Elia and her children. And the best candidate for it is Stannis who has good reputation as master of laws and hates Lannisters.

Then they'll support someone else Lysa be damned. That would be the last straw. Some, like Royce, might support Stannis. Waynwood might join him, possibly Templeton or Redfort. The rest would support Renly.

Renly also hates the Lannister. Renly wasn't directly involved in overthrowing the Targ's. Renly has the Reach.

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13 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Renly also hates the Lannister. Renly wasn't directly involved in overthrowing the Targ's. Renly has the Reach.

I just remembered that the only candidate who had been in Dorne is Renly (Arianne's chapter). It could also mean something for Dornish people.

But who is the best candidate to stop Ironborn raids? The man who defeated commander of Iron fleet or the man who wasn't directly involved in it? Dornish smallfolk must also consider it.

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4 minutes ago, RedGrace that was promised said:

I just remembered that the only candidate who had been in Dorne is Renly (Arianne's chapter). It could also mean something for Dornish people.

But who is the best candidate to stop Ironborn raids? The man who defeated commander of Iron fleet or the man who wasn't directly involved in it? Dornish smallfolk must also consider it.

Yeah, but Dorne isn't typically the one who suffers from Ironborn raids. That's predominantly the Reach, the West and The Riverlands.

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No way Stannis wins.   He's got too few supporters.   The North will only support Robb.   The Vale would remain neutral, supporting no one.   Dorne wouldn't support any of these candidates.  That leaves the Iron Islands, The Reach, Stormlands, Crownlands, Riverlands and Westerlands.   I guarantee the Iron Islands won't back anyone but Balon (nor will Balon throw in with any of these candidates) and the Riverlands will go with whomever has the best chance of winning.  That leaves Renly's Stormlands and Reach against Joffrey's Crownlands and Westerlands.    At that point I have to go with Renly due to populace  and military strength exclusively.  

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