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Alternate History: Stannis doesn't shadowbaby Renly


UFT

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10 minutes ago, UFT said:

how now do things play out?

ill split this into two timelines: 

book

and 

tv show

If stannis doesn t shadowbaby renly then he won t fight him in a battle because he doesn t have the numbers. This means that he either goes to dorne, north or the vale in order to get allies.

Usually the north would be the best choice because they hate the lannisters and should have enough honnor to recognize he is the lawful king, however as robb is calling himself king and because of stannis personality it would be almost impossible for them to force na aliance. At most, after the invasion of the iron islands maybe robb would renounce in order to have his vengeance upon the lannisters and protect the north at the same time, but stannis would probably want his head and I think this would be a dealbreaker unless the things in the north become much worse.

 

In regards to dorne and the vale, dorne probably wouldn t participate in the war without much better odds of winning so his only possible ally is the vale. This means he would have to convence them that the lannisters killed jon arryn (no very difficult) and that he is the rightful king (probably possible with some influence from mel). This would basically completly change the war and doom the lannisters unless they can hire sellswords pretty fast...

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If I was Renly I would siege KL starve the population into full blown revolt untill the gate is just opened to me by the smallfolk, but in order to effectivly do this I would need to defeat Stannis fleet so I can block KL from receiving food and possible Allies from the sea. 

Defeating Stannis at Sea is a tough battle and honestly could go either way so again if I was Renly I would try and kill Stannis before any sea battle took place. 

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11 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

If I was Renly I would siege KL starve the population into full blown revolt untill the gate is just opened to me by the smallfolk, but in order to effectivly do this I would need to defeat Stannis fleet so I can block KL from receiving food and possible Allies from the sea. 

Defeating Stannis at Sea is a tough battle and honestly could go either way so again if I was Renly I would try and kill Stannis before any sea battle took place. 

 

Stannis hasn't got the finances or connections to feed King's Landing, fleet or not. Not to mention it'd be a logistical nightmare and to what end, feeding the Lannister garrison so that Renly cannot starve the city?

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Renly would swat Stannis aside and go on to siege Kings Landing. Then Tywin would abandon the Riverlands to defend KL, leaving Robb Stark free to cement his control and muster his strength.

The Battle between Renly and Tywin would likely be a pyrrhic victory for whomever succeeded, my money would be on Renly as long as he was smart about it and Dorne doesn’t advance their army.

Then with Renly the undisputed king he would make terms with Robb. Giving him Cersei, Joffrey etc. as well as assistance in expelling the Ironborn from the North, in exchange for his fealty.

Robb would be stupid to reject the terms, and besides, Renly isn’t his enemy. If he did reject then Renly would soon bring him to heel.

Assuming Robb kneels, eventually things would settle down. The Ironborn would be defeated and severely punished, the westerlands too.

But then Dany flies in on her dragons and fucks shit up, though with the war over she has her work cut out for her.

Aegon VI may or may not show up, if at all only once Dany is definitely heading to Westeros.

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12 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

Stannis hasn't got the finances or connections to feed King's Landing, fleet or not. Not to mention it'd be a logistical nightmare and to what end, feeding the Lannister garrison so that Renly cannot starve the city?

WHAT? I said if I was Renly I would starve KL, I never said Stannis should feed KL ? Please read what I said before commenting ........ 

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Why starve KL when you have 100k soldiers? If Stannis could almost take it in one assault when KL had more time to prepare than if Renly came (Stannis went to Storm's end first).

What would happen is:

Stannis would either fight the battle and get rekt or flee and be rekt as well(has no money for mercs loses most of the support). Renly would march to KL take it bring supplies to city and people would love him. What happens then it is hard to tell. He probably forces Cersei to confess incest and this removes her children from succession. Tywin bents the knee because Renly has 100k soldiers, Tyrion, Cersei and her children. Offers Robb to bent the knee in return for Ned's honor being restored (that Ned wanted Renly to be king), Ice, Sansa. Robb probably declines, Tywin is order to put down Northeren rebellion while Sansa is shipped to Highgarden to marry Willas. Redwine fleet is activated to attack Stannis and latter Iron Islands. Tywin defeats Robb. Renly the kind man he is lets Robb keep the North and Edmure Riverlands. Everybody eventually bent the knee to Renly. Tywin gets Tyrion back while Cersei and her children stay as "honorable guests" (hostages).

Than Renly keeps being gay and dies childless which initiates another civil war. Middle ages in a nutshell. 

This is ignoring that would not be that good of a story and would probably be changed, this is just from the realism point of view.

edit: Problem with these alternative stories is that you have to make it the most logical possible to best answer the question of the thread. You can of course do what George does make a story that is interesting full of surprises while still being logical and is not going against human characteristics and society of middle ages (very similar to 7 kingdoms one).

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8 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

WHAT? I said if I was Renly I would starve KL, I never said Stannis should feed KL ? Please read what I said before commenting ........ 


"I would need to defeat Stannis fleet so I can block KL from receiving food and possible Allies from the sea." 

That implies that Stannis is going to give the city food, no? Unless you're saying that he needs to defeat Stannis' fleet so that he can in turn defeat the Lannister fleet, in which case that's also pointless. The Lannisters can't source that food either, Renly doesn't need to blockade the city from the sea, it's already starving and all he did was close the Rose Road. 

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Stannis is captured or killed, likely killed given his nature and the fact that he is Renly’s older brother. 

Renly continues on towards Kings Landing and either starves it out or takes the city by force. Everyone else dies/ is taken hostage/ bends the knee. 

Possibility of concessions to win over disenfranchised sides (IE Robb is allowed to call himself King in the North/ King of Winter, an empty title similar to prince of dorne) 

 

and finally as someone else has already mentioned Renly grows old and dies childless = next civil war. You’d imagine Shireen as a carrier of the royal bloodline would be a pretty important asset. 

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On 12/11/2017 at 7:05 PM, Darion Storm said:

Renly would swat Stannis aside and go on to siege Kings Landing. Then Tywin would abandon the Riverlands to defend KL, leaving Robb Stark free to cement his control and muster his strength.

Actually, I think Stannis wins.  Renly has outpaced his supply train and is present with a lot of knights, but they're led by an inexperienced hothead eager for glory (Loras), and Stannis is not only an experienced battle commander, but is noted to be extremely well entrenched, with field works and all.  By Catelyn's account it seems to be a pretty good excellent parallel to Agincourt.

Most likely is there is a hard fought battle.  If Stannis wins, which seems at least an even shot, then my guess is the the main Tyrell host fractures and they sit the war out.  They won't get what they want from Stannis (royal marriage), but they also probably don't manage to purge the pro-Stannis elements so quickly; additionally, defeat in battle would be more convincing for a martial aristocracy than assasination.  Even IF Renly wins, it's interesting; he probably takes heavy casualties for little return.  He's obviously not reaching Kings Landing as soon as the Tyrell host does IOTL; they only make it because Tywin is hurrying them along, and Renly has shown his modus operandi is a slow crawl to show off his powerful army.  If that is so, it seems possible if not likely that Tywin is back in KL in time to put up a meaningful defense of the capital, though in practice this creates a lot of butterfly effects.  My headcanon would be that with a more powerful Lannister force in front of him and having seen that battle isn't always a game of math, Renly allows Robb a number of significant concessions and they move against Tywin, crushing him.  Robb ends up in a similar position to the Dornish; he's considered an "overlord" or vassal king, with suzerainty over the Riverlands, and owes nominal obedience to Renly.  The Seven Kingdoms break up a few years later because Renly's accession makes that inevitable, and there you go.

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On 12/12/2017 at 11:11 PM, Trigger Warning said:

I think it's pretty unlikely that Renly's going to forego an heir just because he doesn't like vaginas. 

It doesn't matter.  Renly's accession basically ditches the entire feudal concept and turns the country into an autocracy where the strongest gets the crown.  My guess is that the Reach is SO predominant in the court that it turns off every other lord and there are mass revolts, especially in Dorne, the Vale, and the North (if the North isn't granted de facto independence anyway, as Renly offers), which are essentially unconquerable without dragons.

Renly tries to take the throne on a platform of "I'm the strongest, so screw any better-blooded claimants" which is a radical, radical departure from existing norms, and one that is extremely dangerous to the existing social order.  Someone more powerful is bound to come along and knock his ass off the throne; once he realizes the meaning of what Renly's done, why should Mace even bother to have his grandson on the throne, when it could be him or his son?

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I think that's a bit extreme, in medieval Europe uncles and cousins etc with enough support usurping their family was common place and feudalism didn't just cease to exist because of it. Primogeniture is just the path of least resistance to having nobility pass along property so everyone more or less sticks to it unless circumstances dictate otherwise, like if there's someone that also has a blood claim that has the backing to push it, especially with a particularly unpopular rightful heir. It's in everyone's interest to make sure that the balance isn't upset too greatly, Renly's the king's brother, he's more than close enough to the royal bloodline to pull off a power grab against the much resented Lannisters without too much being made of his position in the line of succession and Mace isn't going to ever be able to put himself on the throne because he has no blood claim and his own lords won't support it. 

His platform is I'm 5th in Line, very popular, have an incredibly unpopular older brother and the Lannisters are widely despised. The circumstances are just right. He may prattle on about being the best suited but it's still all flowing from his blood tie to the king, if anything that's what he's pushing, as far as he's concerned he's the most suited person with a claim, not just the most suited person. 

 

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On 12/14/2017 at 6:11 PM, Trigger Warning said:

I think that's a bit extreme, in medieval Europe uncles and cousins etc with enough support usurping their family was common place and feudalism didn't just cease to exist because of it. 
 

Please provide an example.

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Quote

 

Renly's accession basically ditches the entire feudal concept and turns the country into an autocracy where the strongest gets the crown.

 

 

 

how? he would be strongest on virtue of the fact he's taken out everyone ahead of him in the line of succession. theyve done this before, in robert's rebellion and renly specifically cites that as backing for his decision. 

also didn't aegon the conqueror also throw it out? once again renly cites that as an example. its pretty much always been "strongest army in a civil war reaps the reward". renly's not unique and he knows that. 

renly would not set a precedent because renly also said that his claim is based on seeing joff and stannis as the horror shows they might well be, and himself as the better alternative as a statesman and diplomat. even robb recognised that, when he went to make a deal with renly.  maybe there will be one or two independence wars, but ultimately i don't think anyone will care once renly's had a coronation and consolidated his power.

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