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What if Balon was smart?


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1 hour ago, GallowsKnight said:

I always thought if the Vale and the Iron Island entered the war as newly independent kingdoms allied with Robb that you would end up with Robb as King of the North, Trident (whatever he kept of the Riverlands) and Golden Tooth (whatever amount of the Westerlands his kingdom swallowed up). Balon as King of the Iron Islands and Rock (whatever chunk of the West's coastline he absorbed) and Sweet Robin as King of the Vale.

There'd likely be Stannis or Renly as King of the South (crownlands, Reach, Stormlands, whatever small chunk of Riverlands/Westerland they could take/keep) and Dorne an Independent Kingdom again.

So a reasonable shake up to the status quo resulting in not 7 kingdoms or 1 kingdom, but 5 kingdoms of varying size and strength.

The war of 5 Kings? Hm,Robb would win through sheer numbers.

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21 minutes ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

The war of 5 Kings? Hm,Robb would win through sheer numbers.

I didn't think of that. But no it would be more of a "Peace of 5 Kings". At least for a generation or so. Once Robb had punished the Lannisters and secured his borders (including the Riverlands and whatever he takes from the West), I don't think he enter any further conflict unless provoked. Stannis/Renly isn't his King, but neither his foe.

Stannis/Renly and their descendants would be pissy they weren't king of all of Westeros, but they wouldn't be able to match a North/Rivers, Iron Island, Vale coalition while they united. Especially if there was a degree of infighting before whomever of the two took control. Especially if they have to worry about Dornishmen raiding as well.

Eventually the grand-alliance, might start to break down and squabble. The Iron Islands raiding the North. The Vale wanting more territory. But probably not right away, at least while Robb and Theon had close ties, Catelyn-Lysa etc.

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1 hour ago, GallowsKnight said:

I didn't think of that. But no it would be more of a "Peace of 5 Kings". At least for a generation or so. Once Robb had punished the Lannisters and secured his borders (including the Riverlands and whatever he takes from the West), I don't think he enter any further conflict unless provoked. Stannis/Renly isn't his King, but neither his foe.

Stannis/Renly and their descendants would be pissy they weren't king of all of Westeros, but they wouldn't be able to match a North/Rivers, Iron Island, Vale coalition while they united. Especially if there was a degree of infighting before whomever of the two took control. Especially if they have to worry about Dornishmen raiding as well.

Eventually the grand-alliance, might start to break down and squabble. The Iron Islands raiding the North. The Vale wanting more territory. But probably not right away, at least while Robb and Theon had close ties, Catelyn-Lysa etc.

And you would also have to figure that Dany would be coming.She could turn it upside down.

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1 hour ago, GallowsKnight said:

Though who knows what might happen if the Iron Fleet and Tyrion don't turn up in Slaver's bay? She might never leave.

There's still Aegon as well I guess. 

Aegon and his supporters can be put off balance just by pointing out that no one is sure if he's a legit Targ.Dany has the dragon's and if she's lucky the Iron Fleet and Tyrion if they show up.

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2 hours ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

Aegon and his supporters can be put off balance just by pointing out that no one is sure if he's a legit Targ.Dany has the dragon's and if she's lucky the Iron Fleet and Tyrion if they show up.

But why would the Ironfleet show up if they're under Balon allied with Robb, sacking and conquering the West? Tyrion who probably is being set up to be an important adviser is probably dead or captured in the Riverlands or Kingslanding depending on how it all plays out.

It's hard to predict Daenarys' plot line if things change so drastically for Westeros. Her storyline doesn't all hinge on Westeros but there are some things that influence it greatly. Though I imagine Barristan still makes it to her.

Does Doran send Quentyn if the Red Viper is alive. Or does he send the Red Viper?

So Daenarys and her dragons are definitely on the board. But who knows if they'll actually get around to attacking Westeros in her lifetime or would she build a New-Valyria in Slavers bay and her descendants return to harass Westeros?

Aegon at least getting a the Golden Company and ships then harassing the new Kingdom Renly/Stannis rule (Especially if Aegon is allied with Dorne) is more straightforward conceivable.

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On 12/12/2017 at 11:49 AM, LindsayLohan said:

Fun question:  Why were Balon, Euron, Victarion, and Damphair such fucking maniacs?  Their father, Quellon, seemed to be smart, reasonable, and progressive.  He and Rodrik Harlaw seemed to be on a path to modernizing the Ironborn.  Why did Quellon's sons all go full fucking retard?

I literally laughed out loud reading this.  Great question. As always, the answer is because GRRM wanted it that way.

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2 hours ago, GallowsKnight said:

But why would the Ironfleet show up if they're under Balon allied with Robb, sacking and conquering the West? Tyrion who probably is being set up to be an important adviser is probably dead or captured in the Riverlands or Kingslanding depending on how it all plays out.

It's hard to predict Daenarys' plot line if things change so drastically for Westeros. Her storyline doesn't all hinge on Westeros but there are some things that influence it greatly. Though I imagine Barristan still makes it to her.

Does Doran send Quentyn if the Red Viper is alive. Or does he send the Red Viper?

So Daenarys and her dragons are definitely on the board. But who knows if they'll actually get around to attacking Westeros in her lifetime or would she build a New-Valyria in Slavers bay and her descendants return to harass Westeros?

Aegon at least getting a the Golden Company and ships then harassing the new Kingdom Renly/Stannis rule (Especially if Aegon is allied with Dorne) is more straightforward conceivable.

I'm thinking Euron's fleet.He would still be out there.With his brother still the Lord Reaper where would he go? Aegon having the Golden Company and a naval force does change things somewhat.As for Doran I would send The Red Viper and Sand Snakes.

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9 minutes ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

I'm thinking Euron's fleet.He would still be out there.With his brother still the Lord Reaper where would he go?

Aegon having the Golden Company and a naval force does change things somewhat.

As for Doran I would send The Red Viper and Sand Snakes.

He only had one ship silence until he won the Kingsmoot. But he could always still turn up and murder his way to the top of the Iron Throne. So many variables.

Yeah you could end up with 4 kingdoms. If Aegon gets Dorne and manages to beat Renly/Stannis with loyalist support. 

I agree the Red Viper is a much better option to send to meet Daenarys. He's world-experienced and probably would go well seducing her (look at her types really?).

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LOL @ the Stark bias

To begin, the Ironborn do not care for alliances with the greenlands... why would they? Before the conquest, they were feared by all. Their writ was "wherever men can smell salt water or hear the crash of waves.'' This power is still at their fingertips. The religion and culture is totally different. The biggest obstable is a united 7 Kingdoms, and even then they are still a threat. Their strength seems to be overlooked by many here, and remember that the Iron Throne had to build a whole new fleet and gather a pretty darn big army to deal with them. And after about what, 9 years? Their fleet is rebuilt. In their ''shit'' economy.

Second, do you think that anyone in the 7K believed the North stood any chance of winning the war? They were unable to defeat the Westerlands with a Riverlands / North alliance. Plus, most of their men and all their great men have already gone South. No Stark of age remains to mount any sort of united defence. They are close to the islands, and have not had a fleet for centuries. The Riverlands barely has any fleet at all and is even closer and is notorious for infighting. These lands are ripe for the picking. 

Secondly, you have the Lannisters with what can be debated as one of the greatest leaders they have ever had. Ruthless, ambitious and known for being a good battle commander. Oh, and remember how they just mustered another army bigger than the North army? They have the wealth and population to do it again. They currently sit in the capital. They stand a big chance of winning the war and are a clear and present danger today AND in the possible near future. 

Thirdly, the reach has several fleets. An army 100,000 strong. Also stands a large chance of winning the war. Leadership is still intact. Attacking them is just plain dumb at this time. But be patient, the Army is slowly going North and maybe the fleets will engage elsewhere, especially seeing that the ironborn are seemingly not a present threat... then they are ripe for the picking. Oh wait, this is actually happening a year later?! Wow!

Balon's plan was good. Take Moat Caitlin and block the Army from coming back North. Raid the coast for food / timber / thralls = more people, more ships, more wealth, more strength. They do not have a fleet to defend themselves, and none will come to their aid. Let the 7K fight each other and weaken themselves. His plan was the best course of action for maximum profit and minimum risk. This is the Ironborn way. If Theon was less of a bitch, and just burned down Winterfell and left... Man oh Man the ironborn would be back on top!

Just a few things I would change, is to venture a bit further into the Mainland and sack / burn a few more castles and possibly extenguish a few houses just in case they lose Moat Caitlin, the counteroffensive would be much weaker. Also, take Bear island for the timber to build more ships and more thralls. The North would never be able to take it back. 

Do you think the Iron Throne would have the strength to mount an offensive against them once the war on the mainland is over, regardless of the winner? hahaha NO!

Shit, people call Balon dumb and Danny smart... insane.

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On 12/19/2017 at 10:59 PM, GallowsKnight said:

He only had one ship silence until he won the Kingsmoot. But he could always still turn up and murder his way to the top of the Iron Throne. So many variables.

Yeah you could end up with 4 kingdoms. If Aegon gets Dorne and manages to beat Renly/Stannis with loyalist support. 

I agree the Red Viper is a much better option to send to meet Daenarys. He's world-experienced and probably would go well seducing her (look at her types really?).

How would Balon respond to all of this? I would think raiding Dorne wouldn't be outta the realm of possibility.

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On 12/21/2017 at 10:19 AM, Spilledguts said:

If Theon was less of a bitch, and just burned down Winterfell and left... Man oh Man the ironborn would be back on top!

Well I ain't got time for a long discussion this close to Christmas on the other points.

But I'll agree this is the truth. Had he just taken loot, hostages (the Stark boys, Freys and Reeds), burnt down the castle and booked it home, Theon would have stepped into history as one of the greatest living Ironborn and been a shoe-in for King again.

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  • 4 months later...

Lots of posts overestimating the Ironborn. They have 400  or so ships and only 100 of them carry as many men as the smaller war galleys(80 men) the rest are even smaller carrying 1/3 of that. They are so lacking in population one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful house crews it's ships with beaedless boys. Redwynes alone have more ships than that.

Their strength is they have fast, small ships and they are living in a cesspit in the middle of the sea with so few things of value people don't bother dealing with them unless they become too much of a bother.

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If Balon were smart he would;

-Not have attempted his first rebellion without cultivating guaranteed allies first. Assuming others will follow your lead is a good way to wind up acting alone.

-Have attempted to have some say in Theon marrying someone of value, and having at least a few proposals in place for Asha. Marriage alliance are insanely valuable in this world, and historically even the Ironborn have recognized that.

-Have negotiated a plan with Tywin before attacking Robb. As Tywin himself says, there’s no need to pay someone who’s already doing a job for free.

-Had a clearly defined succession plan in place, and kept active tabs on Euron. Both of these failures show Balon’s poor understanding of his own people.

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1 hour ago, Ylath's Snout said:

:agree:You make some good points @The Mountain That Flies 

That said who could Balon really seek a marriage-match with? Seems no one would be much interested in a match like that until WoT5K given their general bottom-tier status among the Seven Kingdoms with a history of raiding all of their likely matches.

It’s not out of the question, historically a Hoare wed a Lannister, so the Greyjoys should be able to negotiate a marriage with a Great House if they had the willpower, but I just don’t think they’re interested. Balon in particular was too obsessed with paying the Iron Price and neglected the values of diplomacy, marriage and trade.

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On 12/12/2017 at 6:57 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Join with Robb, the only other King fighting to break free of the Iron Throne. With the might of the Ironborn on his side, rather than against him, Robb has 40,000 soldiers on land in the Riverlands, and 500 ships in the Sunset Sea.

Balon raids the Westerlands, meaning Robb does not have to invade the West, and after the Whispering Wood can instead turn his full might on Tywin's surviving 19,000 strong host in the Riverlands.  The Riverlands stops bleeding, allowing it to recover some strength, and Robb still has 10,000 extra men in the North to call upon should he need to.

Balon's raiders gather awesome riches by raiding the now unprotected Westerlands, satisfying his captains' need for plunder to a far greater extent than the North could ever offer.

Tywin is either defeated in the  Riverlands, or is forced to retreat to King's Landing, where his 19k men are besieged by Stannis's Blackwater force.

The War in King's Landing has a totally unpredictable outcome now, and meanwhile the North-Riverlands-Iron Isles alliance solidifies its control over the northern realms.

Whatever the outcome in the South, the end result is a Northern alliance of around 70k warriors (including the Ironborn), up against the winner of the southron war. By this time Doran may enter the fray, being the natural enemy of the Lannisters and Tyrells.

All that is needed then is for the Vale to be brought into the Northern alliance, and there is no way to undo the gains made by the allies. Balon has his independence. 

Since we're all in the spirit of this necroposting (which I'm not complaining about), I want to say that this strategy was a million times better than Balon's.

Other than the fact that it progressed the narrative, the Iron Islands' invasion of the North was so stupid. I understand that part of aSoIaF's appeal is that it explores the nature of how power works, rather than being a good vs evil clash where baddies always lose. It's just that none of Balon's plan had any longevity. It was a stupid plan, especially given how long he had to think about it.

The alliances you highlight would have made his position near impregnable. After all, it was the North who consistently bested the Iron islands and the Vale in the times before Aegon. Admittedly, the North eventually gave up on the Three Sisters, but the wars persisted for centuries, meaning that they were often fighting at sea on two fronts at a time against two different enemies.

There's really no good reason for Balon to have thought his idea had long-term merits. On the other hand, as you point out, support from the North and the Riverlands gives him two huge buffer states protecting his entire eastern and northern flanks. He need only ever look south, and the plunder that he'd find would be much better. He'd have access to the lucrative trade networks of the Riverlands (which, despite his conceit of always paying the iron price, they so obviously need for wood and raw materials to keep their fleets operating), too.

It's not like the Westerlands would be so vulnerable forever, but siding with the separatists would mean that they'd leave the Lannisters with the hostile Riverlands to their east, the fleets of the North and Iron Islands choking their west and their bitter enemies of the Reach to their south (at the point Balon revolted the Tyrell/Lannister alliance hadn't begun yet). Mix in the centuries of warring between the Reach, West and Stormlands and it wouldn't be that hard to ignite this up again. Prudently support one Great House, then the next every generation or so to keep them all focused on holding a weakened Iron Throne. This stops them trying to reclaim the craggy archipelago with those barbaric warrior fisherman and their weird gods.

It's also similarly frustrating that centuries of wars at sea and trade between the Free Cities and the very dangerous Eastwatch-by-the-Sea hasn't made the North have a permanent fleet always at hand. Sure, one of the Brandons was a crybaby who set the ships on fire after his father disappeared, but how why did all of the subsequent Starks succumb to his stupidity?

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3 hours ago, Jaehaerys Tyrell said:

It’s not out of the question, historically a Hoare wed a Lannister

The Hoares had much more land, power and influence than the Greyjoys do though.

4 hours ago, Jaehaerys Tyrell said:

Balon in particular was too obsessed with paying the Iron Price and neglected the values of diplomacy, marriage and trade.

Yep, people call Ned stupid but Balon is far worse.

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