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US Politics: the Moore things change...


Kalbear

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The NYT is my preferred live vote tracker. They have a great display that updates in real time, including a continually narrowing estimate range based on what they know at any given time and what they think the likely outcomes are.

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1 minute ago, sperry said:

 

Just seems like their model is way too dependent on assumptions that they can't verify until after the fact. And I think this does a ton to damage their trust with the public, who don't really understand the concepts behind statistical modeling or what the "76%" number even needs. I think they would be better served leaving that to other websites to do the forecasting.

I agree.  I see lots of folks on social media celebrating using the NYT forecaster.  They'll be pissed and confused when he doesn't win.

Already dropped to 65%.  Will continue to fall.

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4 minutes ago, sperry said:

Just seems like their model is way too dependent on assumptions that they can't verify until after the fact. And I think this does a ton to damage their trust with the public, who don't really understand the concepts behind statistical modeling or what the "76%" number even needs. I think they would be better served leaving that to other websites to do the forecasting.

Nah, I don't agree. Nate Cohn does a great job with this. They tried to build a live model as votes come in and that's hard to do. That's why there is such a wide confidence range. I get the average person doesn't understand this but that doesn't bother me. I think it's a great tool to get a directional feel for how the race is going based on a number of factors and a whole lot of research. 

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I agree.  I see lots of folks on social media celebrating using the NYT forecaster.  They'll be pissed and confused when he doesn't win.

Already dropped to 65%.  Will continue to fall.

I'm not sure where you're getting this from. The forecast is pure calculation. Blue strongholds coming in, and their effect is calculated by what's already counted. Sure, the rest of their counties might underperform, but what makes you think they will?

(Not disputing that it's gonna be close. Just curious what it is you know on the county level that I don't.)

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4 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

I'm not sure where you're getting this from. The forecast is pure calculation. Blue strongholds coming in, and their effect is calculated by what's already counted. Sure, the rest of their counties might underperform, but what makes you think they will?

(Not disputing that it's gonna be close. Just curious what it is you know on the county level that I don't.)

Nothing. She's just pessimistic. She never gets these types of predictions wrong.

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4 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

I'm not sure where you're getting this from. The forecast is pure calculation. Blue strongholds coming in, and their effect is calculated by what's already counted. Sure, the rest of their counties might underperform, but what makes you think they will?

(Not disputing that it's gonna be close. Just curious what it is you know on the county level that I don't.)

I have zero scientific evidence.  Just a gut feeling, a lifetime spent living in the south, and a gigantic dose of pessimism. 

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23 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Not sure what you mean?

I meant I don't think NYT or anybody should be spitting out predicted probabilities.  Like I intimated, though, I don't know the context.  Haven't visited NYT tonight.

12 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I'm right there with you but working on it

Man it's night like these that I wish I didn't swear off weed until I finish the diss.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I have zero scientific evidence.  Just a gut feeling, a lifetime spent living in the south, and a gigantic dose of pessimism. 

Alright. But how does that account for a Democrat being within 4% of a Republican in Alabama in counted votes?

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3 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

Alright. But how does that account for a Democrat being within 4% of a Republican in Alabama in counted votes?

It's been noted that Democratic turnout would be slightly up for this election and Republican turnout slightly lower.  There was a ton of focus on due to the pedophile candidate, it's naturally going to make it less typical than other elections.  Not to mention Moore basically stopped campaigning weeks ago.  Doesn't mean that Jones is going to win, though.  The demographics of and voter suppression in the state are not in his favor.  

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2 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

So what will it be? Will I continue drinking in celebration, or consolation?

Edit: I now have it at Moore leading about 30,000, with a lot more to come in from the cities. Y'all seeing the same thing?

Yes and no. 538 has more votes counted and Jones AHEAD. I have no idea how they're getting the numbers in a different order from NYT.

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Ok, people, turn a few pages ahead in the script.

Vote tallies indicate a Jones victory.  Governor and GOP step in, scream 'VOTER FRAUD!' and invalidate the election, ignoring pesky legalities, and tolerating no inquiries whatsoever.  Their actions are later fully supported by the Trump crews voting commission.  Got that? 

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