Inigima Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The NYT is my preferred live vote tracker. They have a great display that updates in real time, including a continually narrowing estimate range based on what they know at any given time and what they think the likely outcomes are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Eater Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, denstorebog said: 90% Jones! I'm not completely sure how the NYT is doing their modeling counted votes are 59% in, Moore up 52.8 to 45.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Things looking positive so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, sperry said: Just seems like their model is way too dependent on assumptions that they can't verify until after the fact. And I think this does a ton to damage their trust with the public, who don't really understand the concepts behind statistical modeling or what the "76%" number even needs. I think they would be better served leaving that to other websites to do the forecasting. I agree. I see lots of folks on social media celebrating using the NYT forecaster. They'll be pissed and confused when he doesn't win. Already dropped to 65%. Will continue to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, sperry said: Just seems like their model is way too dependent on assumptions that they can't verify until after the fact. And I think this does a ton to damage their trust with the public, who don't really understand the concepts behind statistical modeling or what the "76%" number even needs. I think they would be better served leaving that to other websites to do the forecasting. Nah, I don't agree. Nate Cohn does a great job with this. They tried to build a live model as votes come in and that's hard to do. That's why there is such a wide confidence range. I get the average person doesn't understand this but that doesn't bother me. I think it's a great tool to get a directional feel for how the race is going based on a number of factors and a whole lot of research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, Mya Stone said: I’m not high enough to be watching this. I'm right there with you but working on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said: I agree. I see lots of folks on social media celebrating using the NYT forecaster. They'll be pissed and confused when he doesn't win. Already dropped to 65%. Will continue to fall. I'm not sure where you're getting this from. The forecast is pure calculation. Blue strongholds coming in, and their effect is calculated by what's already counted. Sure, the rest of their counties might underperform, but what makes you think they will? (Not disputing that it's gonna be close. Just curious what it is you know on the county level that I don't.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, denstorebog said: I'm not sure where you're getting this from. The forecast is pure calculation. Blue strongholds coming in, and their effect is calculated by what's already counted. Sure, the rest of their counties might underperform, but what makes you think they will? (Not disputing that it's gonna be close. Just curious what it is you know on the county level that I don't.) Nothing. She's just pessimistic. She never gets these types of predictions wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, denstorebog said: I'm not sure where you're getting this from. The forecast is pure calculation. Blue strongholds coming in, and their effect is calculated by what's already counted. Sure, the rest of their counties might underperform, but what makes you think they will? (Not disputing that it's gonna be close. Just curious what it is you know on the county level that I don't.) I have zero scientific evidence. Just a gut feeling, a lifetime spent living in the south, and a gigantic dose of pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, Mexal said: Not sure what you mean? I meant I don't think NYT or anybody should be spitting out predicted probabilities. Like I intimated, though, I don't know the context. Haven't visited NYT tonight. 12 minutes ago, larrytheimp said: I'm right there with you but working on it Man it's night like these that I wish I didn't swear off weed until I finish the diss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Mexal said: Nothing. She's just pessimistic. She never gets these types of predictions wrong. That is true. I'm like 50-0 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Dr. Pepper said: I have zero scientific evidence. Just a gut feeling, a lifetime spent living in the south, and a gigantic dose of pessimism. Alright. But how does that account for a Democrat being within 4% of a Republican in Alabama in counted votes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 So what will it be? Will I continue drinking in celebration, or consolation? Edit: I now have it at Moore leading by about 30,000, with a lot more to come in from the cities. Y'all seeing the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, denstorebog said: Alright. But how does that account for a Democrat being within 4% of a Republican in Alabama in counted votes? It's been noted that Democratic turnout would be slightly up for this election and Republican turnout slightly lower. There was a ton of focus on due to the pedophile candidate, it's naturally going to make it less typical than other elections. Not to mention Moore basically stopped campaigning weeks ago. Doesn't mean that Jones is going to win, though. The demographics of and voter suppression in the state are not in his favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said: So what will it be? Will I continue drinking in celebration, or consolation? Edit: I now have it at Moore leading about 30,000, with a lot more to come in from the cities. Y'all seeing the same thing? Yes and no. 538 has more votes counted and Jones AHEAD. I have no idea how they're getting the numbers in a different order from NYT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paladin of Ice Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Latest update has Jones edging ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 So if 538's vote input is correct, Jones is probably the winner. If not, it's still open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 NYT is catching up too, now. This *definitely* looks like a Dem win at this point .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Ok, people, turn a few pages ahead in the script. Vote tallies indicate a Jones victory. Governor and GOP step in, scream 'VOTER FRAUD!' and invalidate the election, ignoring pesky legalities, and tolerating no inquiries whatsoever. Their actions are later fully supported by the Trump crews voting commission. Got that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Another bellwhether: Fox now saying that "Trump never said he liked this guy, he said that he needed the Senate seat." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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