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US Politics: the Moore things change...


Kalbear

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NRSC chair Sen. Cory Gardener hopes Jones will do the "right thing" in representing Alabama and vote with the Republican majority

http://www.businessinsider.com/cory-gardner-roy-moore-loss-doug-jones-alabama-senate-results-2017-12

LOL

Also, guys, Trump knew Moore would lose a general election, that is why he initially backed Strange, he totally not a two time loser.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/940904649728708609?p=v

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I'm still practically giddy. The implications for the senate for the next three years are enormous. And now that it turns out miracles are possible, maybe, maybe just maybe Jones can exploit the divisions in Alabama Republicans and somehow win reelection in 2020 (The race was much closer than usual before the Moore allegations, and while presumably the GOP candidate next time won't be quite as flawed Jones will have the benefits of incumbency). I wouldn't count on it of course, but its nice to dream.

And speaking of 2020, it seems that many ambitious GOPers in Alabama are looking forward to it already, which may be way they aren't getting on board with having a recount. Why let Moore hog the seat when one of them could likely win it in three years? 

 

Also, maybe the margin changes slightly during certification, but it'll probably remain around the 1.5% it currently is. So, who had the most accurate prediction and can claim their much deserved kudos?

I predicted Jones+3, but I believe there were at least a couple people who had Jones+1.

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1 minute ago, Fez said:

And speaking of 2020, it seems that many ambitious GOPers in Alabama are looking forward to it already, which may be way they aren't getting on board with having a recount. Why let Moore hog the seat when one of them could likely win it in three years? 

What I wonder about is what can Senator Jones do for Alabama as far as easing some of the voter suppression going on as I can all kinds of attempts to make it worse.

The Dems in AL need to get organized for 2020 like yesterday as they have lots of work to do.  

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A thought occurred to me today, in the wake of last night’s election, Franken et al.

1) Dems are very concerned with their politicians accused of sexual misconduct.

2) Reps are not.

3) Rep strategists are seeing 1 and 2.

 

So...how long before the GOP weaponizes sexual misconduct accusations?

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14 minutes ago, SkynJay said:

My fear is that for Jones to keep the seat he will have to cross the aisle once in a while to pick up the credentials.  And I am not sure where in the GOP agenda I am comfortable with him doing that.

So long as he isn't the decisive vote, I'm fine with him voting with Republicans whenever he feels the need to.

At the same time though, he ran as a mainstream Democrat in Alabama (I still can't believe a pro-choice candidate has won in Alabama) and didn't make any specific conservative policy promises. He even said that there should be "limitations" on the second amendment (though it looks more like he was talking about limiting access to guns for some people, such as felons, rather than limiting the guns available to people with access).

ETA:

7 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

A thought occurred to me today, in the wake of last night’s election, Franken et al.

1) Dems are very concerned with their politicians accused of sexual misconduct.

2) Reps are not.

3) Rep strategists are seeing 1 and 2.

 

So...how long before the GOP weaponizes sexual misconduct accusations?

They already are trying. It was buried under all the other news yesterday, but someone forged a sexual assault settlement against Schumer and passed it off to a news org. When they went to Schumer's office for comment, the office notified capital police, who are now looking into it.

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14 minutes ago, SkynJay said:

My fear is that for Jones to keep the seat he will have to cross the aisle once in a while to pick up the credentials.  And I am not sure where in the GOP agenda I am comfortable with him doing that.

If he switched parties, he'd be primaried. Just ask Parker Griffith about Alabama Democrats who try that trick in the modern era.

Edit - Ah, you meant voting with the Republicans, rather than joining them.

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15 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

What I wonder about is what can Senator Jones do for Alabama as far as easing some of the voter suppression going on as I can all kinds of attempts to make it worse.

The Dems in AL need to get organized for 2020 like yesterday as they have lots of work to do.  

Probably nothing. Voter suppression is very much done at a State level. Dems would have to take State positions.

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17 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

What I wonder about is what can Senator Jones do for Alabama as far as easing some of the voter suppression going on as I can all kinds of attempts to make it worse.

The Dems in AL need to get organized for 2020 like yesterday as they have lots of work to do.  

The key to undoing voter suppression is the Governorship and the Secretary of State. Target those positions with the campaign infrastructure from this election, and see what happens.

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12 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

A thought occurred to me today, in the wake of last night’s election, Franken et al.

1) Dems are very concerned with their politicians accused of sexual misconduct.

2) Reps are not.

3) Rep strategists are seeing 1 and 2.

 

So...how long before the GOP weaponizes sexual misconduct accusations?

 

There has been some chatter among the far right about using it to hurt liberals, we saw that Veritas was willing to fake rape and abortion in attempt to discredit claims about Moore. Using the Believe Women movement could be a win win, they could remove liberals from office, and even if an accusation is proven false, they can hurt women by casting doubt on legitimate complaints, and these people sure do hate women.

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10 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Probably nothing. Voter suppression is very much done at a State level. Dems would have to take State positions.

 

7 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

The key to undoing voter suppression is the Governorship and the Secretary of State. Target those positions with the campaign infrastructure from this election, and see what happens.

Got it, thanks.

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3 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

The key to undoing voter suppression is the Governorship and the Secretary of State. Target those positions with the campaign infrastructure from this election, and see what happens.

The SoS seems like a generic Republican, meaning he'll probably win by the standard 25+ points. The Governor though, seems like a tiny possibility. She was Lt. Gov until Bentley resigned, and even though I don't think she's been implicated in any of Bentley's scandals, some voters may still associate her with them (which is the same issue Strange faced in the senate primary, there was no evidence he was bought off by Bentley, but voters suspected it all the same). Also, she may have angered some Moore supporters with her extremely tepid support of him after the allegations broke (including saying that she believed the women, though she would still vote for Moore). Plus, while not to the extent of Oklahoma or Kansas, the state has been facing budget shortfalls resulting in cuts to K-12 school funding (which in Oklahoma seems to be the driving factor for all those Democratic state leg special election wins). Finally, she's a woman and there are some Republicans who just won't vote for a woman.

It's a longshot, but the right Democrat could possibly pull it off. And since its a 2018 race, Trump won't be on the ballot to gin up his base.

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30 minutes ago, Fez said:
23 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

 

There has been some chatter among the far right about using it to hurt liberals, we saw that Veritas was willing to fake rape and abortion in attempt to discredit claims about Moore. Using the Believe Women movement could be a win win, they could remove liberals from office, and even if an accusation is proven false, they can hurt women by casting doubt on legitimate complaints, and these people sure do hate women.

They already are trying. It was buried under all the other news yesterday, but someone forged a sexual assault settlement against Schumer and passed it off to a news org. When they went to Schumer's office for comment, the office notified capital police, who are now looking into it.

Screwed up the quotes, dunno how to fix, but cheers. The more I think on this the more I think there’s no way they don’t adopt this as a primary tactic. Basically they get a veto on any Dem candidate they want to tank. And if in response some Dems push back a bit on the whole guilt by accusation wave, that becomes divisive right quick. The Dems are sitting ducks for this...fuck. It’s free money.

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22 minutes ago, Mexal said:

When McCarthy says this, means nothing is there.

 

Around midnight  I happened to flip onto FOX and while most news outlets were covering Jones, they had moved on to these texts with big breaking news graphics and anchors promising "shocking" developments. They put up some the texts and they were incredibly innocuous, anti-Trump to be sure, but in the most common sense, factual way, he is clearly a terrible person; and the guy was reassigned, BFD. It was kind of hilarious watching the shocked reactions of the FOXdrones, but then I realized there are people taking this seriously and this is part of a concerted effort to torpedo the investigation and it was all horribly depressing.

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9 minutes ago, Mexal said:

This is how gerrymandered Alabama is. Jones only carried one Congressional district...

 

Compared to some states that map really doesn't look that bad. Also, he won the state by 1.5%, he lost the 5th CD by 0.3%, the 3rd by 2.9%, the 1st by 3.8%, and the 6th by 4.6%. Considering geographic variance, that seems pretty reasonable to me.

 

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