denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 NYTimes now predicts 67% chance of a Jones win. With Moore clearly in the lead in counted votes. So a huge blue vote dump is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said: Of course he is, because having @WinterFox eat her chocolate bra would be just too cool. We can never have nice things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, dmc515 said: Meant it as future tense. I'm kinda tense about the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, denstorebog said: NYTimes now predicts 67% chance of a Jones win. With Moore clearly in the lead in counted votes. So a huge blue vote dump is incoming. Nate Cohn was saying turnout was down lower than expected in some GOP rural counties. Wonder if that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Holy shit. 76% chance for Jones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, denstorebog said: NYTimes now predicts 67% chance of a Jones win. With Moore clearly in the lead in counted votes. So a huge blue vote dump is incoming. I don't think much has come in from Mobile or Montgomery yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sperry Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 All I know is the Times better be pretty damn sure if they're publishing the results of a prediction model again, after the presidential election. Why would they even bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, sperry said: All I know is the Times better be pretty damn sure if they're publishing the results of a prediction model again, after the presidential election. Why would they even bother? To be fair, their prediction model for the presidential election was based on polls prior to the election. Their model on the day is different. That's based on turnout, benchmarks, etc. That's why their model has Jones winning right now; turnout is down from their expectations in rural GOP counties. It could swing when Dem counties come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said: I'm kinda tense about the future. Just now, sperry said: All I know is the Times better be pretty damn sure if they're publishing the results of a prediction model again, after the presidential election. Why would they even bother? Very good point. Sounds pretty stupid to do so in this race before election night - sounds really really stupid doing so as results are coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, dmc515 said: Very good point. Sounds pretty stupid to do so in this race before election night - sounds really really stupid doing so as results are coming in. I like it. I like to see how the results bounce against the expected turnout, necessary benchmarks to win and historical results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 From the 531 guys... Quote DAVID WASSERMAN 9:23 PM Perry County is the first Black Belt county entirely reporting. Jones won there 3,138 to 821. The bad news for Jones is that he won it by 58 percent, and I estimated that he needed to win it by 64 percent. But the good news for Jones is that that’s a pretty good turnout. Perry saw at about 76 percent as much turnout as it did in 2016, whereas Houston County (Moore’s base) was only at 58 percent of 2016 turnout. HARRY ENTEN 9:23 PM Following up on that Nate Cohn tweet we posted below: I want to point out that Fayette County is all in. Moore won it by 50 points — well ahead of his benchmark there. Here’s the twist, though: There were less than 5,000 votes cast there. In 2014, there were nearly 7,000 votes cast there. In other words, turnout is way down from 2014 in a heavy pro-Moore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Mexal said: I like it. I like to see how the results bounce against the expected turnout, necessary benchmarks to win and historical results. Sure if that's the context. That's not what it sounded like is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 90% Jones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mya Stone Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I’m not high enough to be watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, denstorebog said: 90% Jones! I see 73%. 5 minutes ago, dmc515 said: Sure if that's the context. That's not what it sounded like is all. Not sure what you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, denstorebog said: 90% Jones! That thing is going to waver until more votes are counted. It's not a useful tool at all. It's done to Jones 70%. It will switch to Moore shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paladin of Ice Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Jones is starting to narrow the gap. Last update I saw Moore's lead went from 4.5% to less than 3%. Is it going to be enough, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Dr. Pepper said: That thing is going to waver until more votes are counted. It's not a useful tool at all. It's done to Jones 70%. It will switch to Moore shortly. We'll see. Turnout is down in GOP counties and there is a slight uptick in turnout in Dem counties. That helps Jones quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sperry Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, Mexal said: To be fair, their prediction model for the presidential election was based on polls prior to the election. Their model on the day is different. That's based on turnout, benchmarks, etc. That's why their model has Jones winning right now; turnout is down from their expectations in rural GOP counties. It could swing when Dem counties come in. Just seems like their model is way too dependent on assumptions that they can't verify until after the fact. And I think this does a ton to damage their trust with the public, who don't really understand the concepts behind statistical modeling or what the "76%" number even needs. I think they would be better served leaving that to other websites to do the forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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