R+L=J v.165

[SirArthur]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But in the end this has little bearing on the final matter at hand - whether we have any reason to believe that Prince Rhaegar had any reason or inclination to hide his whereabouts and identity on his way from the tower back to KL.

That is the matter at hand, and if Rhaegar wanted to keep Lyanna's location hidden from his royal father he shouldn't have gone to KL (where Aerys could force him to reveal said location); instead, he should have commanded his friends to move Lyanna to a place neither he nor Hightower knew about. That would have been to keep her location a secret. Not commanding Hightower to stay at the tower.

We know exactly why he went: "to die for the woman he loved" and because Elia was a hostage. The question is more or less who is the woman he loved. and that btw. also implies that there was a communication after all, else he couldn't be forced/convinced to go back. 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

We know exactly why he went: "to die for the woman he loved" and because Elia was a hostage. The question is more or less who is the woman he loved. and that btw. also implies that there was a communication after all, else he couldn't be forced/convinced to go back. 

We know who the woman he loved was. And he sure as hell didn't go back to die. He went because he wanted to defeat cousin Robert.

There was communication when Ser Gerold talked to Rhaegar, presumably. They may also have been communication via raven prior to that, but likely not from that tower. But then, we don't know how long they spent there. Could have been weeks, could have been months. Perhaps only days. We don't know. All we do know is that Rhaegar must have found some joy there.

[Geddus]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Why don't you address the real refutation to your entire scenario - that Rhaegar could have sent Dayne/Whent with Lyanna to another location, a location neither he nor Hightower nor anyone needed to know if he wanted to prevent King Aerys II to learn where she was?

There is no good counter-argument against that one, is there? Which is why you are ignoring it, pretending it doesn't exist.

That's an alternative, not a refutation, it doesn't disprove anything. Could Rhaegar have done that? Sure. Should he? Probably. Did he? Who knows, what happened is almost entirely a mystery. But "then why didn't he do that instead" is not really an argument, is it?

And I wasn't aware we were talking about that, that's why I didn't address it. By the way your assumptions and insinuations are starting to become annoying, could you please stop with those? Unless that's intentional, in that case carry on, you're doing well.

As for the rest, you're really saying that people across Westeros would have recognized Rhaegar and his companions on sight because they were "famous"? Come on, that's not even worth the time needed to write it. And I thought that the prince trying to keep a low profile was considered a given, since no one seems to know where the hell he was or even who was with him.

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Geddus said:

That's an alternative, not a refutation, it doesn't disprove anything. Could Rhaegar have done that? Sure. Should he? Probably. Did he? Who knows, what happened is almost entirely a mystery. But "then why didn't he do that instead" is not really an argument, is it?

It is the better alternative within the framework of the story. The idea that Rhaegar was motivated by something like that in his decision to keep Hightower with Lyanna is simply not very convincing. At least not to me.

13 minutes ago, Geddus said:

And I wasn't aware we were talking about that, that's why I didn't address it.

You jumped on a weaker point in my argument, a point that wasn't really relevant to the overall thing which I actually pointed - it was only relevant if we assumed the idea that Rhaegar would not just send Lyanna away with Dayne/Whent to a place neither he nor Hightower would know.

13 minutes ago, Geddus said:

As for the rest, you're really saying that people across Westeros would have recognized Rhaegar and his companions on sight because they were "famous"? Come on, that's not even worth the time needed to write it. And I thought that the prince trying to keep a low profile was considered a given, since no one seems to know where the hell he was or even who was with him.

I gave you ample examples as to why this would have happened, providing you with examples George himself gives (Tyrion realizing who Connington is; Dunk realizing that Ser John the Fiddler is no hedge knight and him eventually realizing who the man actually is). I could add Uthor Underleaf recognizing Ser Duncan the Tall. A trained and perceptive eye can look through many disguises, and royals, nobles, and Kingsguard usually are not trained actors. They walk, talk, and look the way they were raised, which makes it very hard for them to pretend to belong to another class.

[SirArthur]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We know who the woman he loved was.

Maybe you do, I don't. In my book there are at least 4 contenders, our womanizer Rhaegar can be linked to: Elia, Lyanna, Cersei, Ashara. And the only thing that places Lyanna over Cersei or Ashara is a single action during a tourney. 

However, of the four women presented, Lyanna is the one woman he spend the least amount of time with (none) prior to the tourney. I would hardly call that love. In contrast to Robert, who actually spend time with Lyanna. 

[Geddus]

55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is the better alternative within the framework of the story. The idea that Rhaegar was motivated by something like that in his decision to keep Hightower with Lyanna is simply not very convincing. At least not to me.

It may be a better alternative, sure, but again, it doesn't demostrate or refute anything. People, both fictional and real, don't always act the most convenient or logical way and the fact that we don't know Rhaegar at all makes even more difficult trying to imagine what he did and why. We don't even know if he kidnapped Lyanna, if they eloped or if it was something else entirely so how can we dismiss any option (that makes sense)?

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I gave you ample examples as to why this would have happened, providing you with examples George himself gives (Tyrion realizing who Connington is; Dunk realizing that Ser John the Fiddler is no hedge knight and him eventually realizing who the man actually is). I could add Uthor Underleaf recognizing Ser Duncan the Tall. A trained and perceptive eye can look through many disguises, and royals, nobles, and Kingsguard usually are not trained actors. They walk, talk, and look the way they were raised, which makes it very hard for them to pretend to belong to another class.

Recognizing someone as a nobleman and knowing who exactly said nobleman is are not the same thing, at all. Why would, say, an obscure innkeeper in the Reach think that the noble guests that showed up that evening are in fact the crown prince, the Sword of the Morning and the daughter of the Warden of the North? Maybe some months later he gets news about the rebellion and connects the dots, but that's another matter and I said right away that such an investigation would indeed have been possible but would have taken a very long time and would have yielded uncertain results.

Also, I never said Rhaegar and his companions were trying to pass for lowborns.

[The Twinslayer]

20 hours ago, -Shaggydog- said:

Hi, I don't know if that was discussed here before:

ADWD Jon:

Assuming the raven is skinchanged by Bran (which is pointed out by the unsual vocabulary and Jon being curious about that, too). Can it be that Bran already knows about Jon's parentage and is just revealing it to Jon by calling him "King"?

Keeping in mind that Rhegar's son should have the bigger claim to the IT, the equation R+L=J can be rewritten as R+L="King".

Why else would Mormont's raven (Bran) call him "King"?

Welcome to the forums.  The alternative explanation (if we assume the raven is being controlled by someone else) is that this is a reference to Jon having a claim to be King in the North, as a legitimized bastard son of Ned Stark and the designated heir of Robb Stark.

[Megorova]

Maybe Rhaegar and Lyanna weren't staying at the Tower of Joy.

Could be that after they eloped, they went to Starfall, and on the way there, stopped at some tower, where they got married. After that Rhaegar named that tower the Tower of Joy. When they were with Dayne siblings at Starfall, Rhaegar was summoned by his father back to KL. When Rhaegar left, Lyanna was pregnant. And when she heard about Rhaegar's death, maybe she tried to return home, or to go some other place. Though during that journey, she went into labor. Maybe there was maester at that tower, or Lyanna stopped there, beause she was familiar with that place.

Rhaegar naming that tower, doesn't mean that they were staying there, all that time, while they were gone.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I gave you ample examples as to why this would have happened, providing you with examples George himself gives (Tyrion realizing who Connington is; Dunk realizing that Ser John the Fiddler is no hedge knight and him eventually realizing who the man actually is). I could add Uthor Underleaf recognizing Ser Duncan the Tall. A trained and perceptive eye can look through many disguises, and royals, nobles, and Kingsguard usually are not trained actors. They walk, talk, and look the way they were raised, which makes it very hard for them to pretend to belong to another class.

It took some time for Rhaegar and Lyanna to travel from Riverlands to Dorne. So most likely, Starks already announced all over Westeros about Lyanna's kidnapping, while Lyanna and Rhaegar were still on their way to wherever they were going. Lyanna's father and brother were killed by Mad King, and that caused a civil war in 7K. So Rhaegar and Lyanna were the two most wanted people. Nevertheless they were not found. 

So do you really think, that Rhaegar alone, could have been recognized by someone, when he was going back to KL, even though when he was together with Lyanna, no one saw them, and no one hasn't found out where they were, for those 9+ months, that they were missing?

[Ygrain]

11 hours ago, SirArthur said:

there are at least 4 contenders, our womanizer Rhaegar can be linked to: Elia, Lyanna, Cersei, Ashara. 

The same problem as elsewhere: you're not looking at what is actually written. Zero basis for a relationship to Ashara or Cersei, "fond" of Elia, "Prince Rhaegar loved his lady Lyanna". Rhaegar gives Lyanna blue roses, she is holding roses on her deathbed in Ned's memory, the ToJ dream sequence has all the elements mentioned in the memory (roses, blood, "promise me"), and the roses are specified in the dream as blue. "Bed of blood" means Lyanna had given birth prior her death, and the blue roses make a connection between her and the sole person who is known to have given her a crown of blue roses, which is Rhaegar. No blue roses, no nothing, for Elia, Cersei or Ashara.

[Lord Varys]

On 6.4.2018 at 11:26 AM, SirArthur said:

Maybe you do, I don't. In my book there are at least 4 contenders, our womanizer Rhaegar can be linked to: Elia, Lyanna, Cersei, Ashara. And the only thing that places Lyanna over Cersei or Ashara is a single action during a tourney. 

George told us that Rhaegar said Lyanna's name when he died. Not some other woman's. That's enough for me.

On 6.4.2018 at 11:52 AM, Geddus said:

It may be a better alternative, sure, but again, it doesn't demostrate or refute anything. People, both fictional and real, don't always act the most convenient or logical way and the fact that we don't know Rhaegar at all makes even more difficult trying to imagine what he did and why. We don't even know if he kidnapped Lyanna, if they eloped or if it was something else entirely so how can we dismiss any option (that makes sense)?

A sane person wouldn't have acted the way you describe. If you don't want me - assuming I'm a mad king with murderous tendencies - not to know a certain thing you don't go to me and hang out with me - especially not if I happen to have your wife and children in my 'care' and could threaten to torture or burn them alive if you don't comply (and then continue giving you the same treatment).

George is very aware of this kind of thing - in TSotD he has Princess Rhaena send her children away from her, not knowing where they would be hidden so she herself could not tell King Maegor. In TPatQ, Larys Strong sends Aegon II and his children to different places without informing the members of the royal family and court who yielded to Rhaenyra where they went - to prevent them from revealing it to her.

And so on. We even see that in ACoK when Bran and Rickon are split up and Osha doesn't tell Jojen and Meera where she and Rickon will go.

On 6.4.2018 at 11:52 AM, Geddus said:

Recognizing someone as a nobleman and knowing who exactly said nobleman is are not the same thing, at all. Why would, say, an obscure innkeeper in the Reach think that the noble guests that showed up that evening are in fact the crown prince, the Sword of the Morning and the daughter of the Warden of the North? Maybe some months later he gets news about the rebellion and connects the dots, but that's another matter and I said right away that such an investigation would indeed have been possible but would have taken a very long time and would have yielded uncertain results.

Well, because the message that the king is looking for his ingrate son may have arrived at that inn first?

I don't doubt that Rhaegar/Lyanna and the others could hide themselves somewhat adequately immediately after the abduction and before the word that the king was looking for them had spread. But they would have left traces anyway, traces people could (and would) follow. That's how Rhaegar was likely found in the end.

But out discussion here is mainly about Rhaegar's return from the tower to KL - and there is simply no reason to assume he would hide his identity on the way - or succeed at that, if he tried. After all, your idea is that the man apparently traveled alone (Hightower remaining behind because else he could be forced to tell Aerys the truth) and that means he must have stayed at inns or castles, he must have changed horses, he must have asked people for food (not being able to carry enough provisions for the entire journey, even if they had enough at the tower).

Even if he had cut off his hair, dyed it, or worn some rags, people would have noticed him. And they would have remembered him later when the king's people started to ask about him because appearance and behavior wouldn't have matched up. 

On 6.4.2018 at 11:52 AM, Geddus said:

Also, I never said Rhaegar and his companions were trying to pass for lowborns.

That is the usual way to hide your identity if you are a nobility or royalty and do not want to be recognized as such. Disguising yourself as another weirdo nobleman is going to draw even more attention to you - attention you do not want.

[Geddus]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A sane person wouldn't have acted the way you describe. If you don't want me - assuming I'm a mad king with murderous tendencies - not to know a certain thing you don't go to me and hang out with me - especially not if I happen to have your wife and children in my 'care' and could threaten to torture or burn them alive if you don't comply (and then continue giving you the same treatment).

What does that have to do with anything we were talking about?

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if he had cut off his hair, dyed it, or worn some rags, people would have noticed him. And they would have remembered him later when the king's people started to ask about him because appearance and behavior wouldn't have matched up. 

I don't understand why you're insisting on this point since I've never contested it. I'll repeat for the third time (I think): the investigation you describe would indeed have been possible, maybe it even happened. It would also have taken months, at least, so it would have been ultimately pointless.

Quote

That is the usual way to hide your identity if you are a nobility or royalty and do not want to be recognized as such. Disguising yourself as another weirdo nobleman is going to draw even more attention to you - attention you do not want.

They don't need a disguise, all they have to do is not say who they are. It's not like westerosi innkeepers ask for their guests' ID documents.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Geddus said:

What does that have to do with anything we were talking about?

I already explained that.

1 hour ago, Geddus said:

I don't understand why you're insisting on this point since I've never contested it. I'll repeat for the third time (I think): the investigation you describe would indeed have been possible, maybe it even happened. It would also have taken months, at least, so it would have been ultimately pointless.

Considering the reports both Varys and Qyburn receive from the far corners of the Realm - in addition to reports what happens in the larger world - it is pretty clear that you are mistaken here. By the time Rhaegar returned to KL pretty much everybody in the Realm must have known that the king was looking for his son - which means somebody would have recognized him on the way, and then that somebody would have contacted the powers that be in the capital (or rather somebody who knows how to contact the Master of Whisperers).

I mean, read the books. Varys knows about Tyrion's abduction in AGoT before Yoren has told Ned, before Cersei and Jaime have received a raven from Casterly Rock about the matter.

1 hour ago, Geddus said:

They don't need a disguise, all they have to do is not say who they are. It's not like westerosi innkeepers ask for their guests' ID documents.

You would have to go back and read how travelers have to talk to other travelers, and how they can (and do) extract information from you. It happens during Cat's, Jaime's, Arya's, Brienne's, Tyrion's, and Dunk's travels. 

[JNR]

On 4/5/2018 at 4:45 PM, Lord Varys said:

I don't assume (or think it a given) that they reached that tower in the Red Mountains by crossing the Reach on foot or horse. They could also have gone by ship  to Dorne (Starfall, say) to reach the tower while crossing from Dorne into the Reach.

Very true.  Similarly, Rhaegar could have returned by ship from... wherever he was, all that time.  

All we know from the canon is that he returned to King's Landing "from the south."  But whether that means Dorne, the Mud Gate, some point south of King's Landing to which he had sailed to conceal his true point of origin, or what, we're never told.  

On 4/5/2018 at 4:45 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is the matter at hand, and if Rhaegar wanted to keep Lyanna's location hidden from his royal father he shouldn't have gone to KL (where Aerys could force him to reveal said location)

It's not completely clear to me Aerys could have done that.  

We can certainly imagine him threatening to murder Rhaegar's wife and children to squeeze the info out of Rhaegar, yes.  But we can also imagine Rhaegar pointing out to his father that such actions would instantly lose Aerys the support of the Dornish, not to mention his own support in leading his father's now-much-diminished host anywhere.  I'm not sure how Aerys would have responded in this scenario, which might have amounted to a stalemate.

I am also in the camp of those who think Aerys absolutely would have taken Lyanna hostage if he possibly could have for the obvious staggering political gain it would bring him, just as (see above) he already had done, and at the same time, with Elia, to ensure the loyalty of the Dornish, whom he saw as critical.

I've read remarks that he was just too insane to think of that obvious move.  Maybe; I'm not so sure.

[Lord Varys]

17 hours ago, JNR said:

Very true.  Similarly, Rhaegar could have returned by ship from... wherever he was, all that time.  

All we know from the canon is that he returned to King's Landing "from the south."  But whether that means Dorne, the Mud Gate, some point south of King's Landing to which he had sailed to conceal his true point of origin, or what, we're never told.  

That is also true. Although going by ship would have allowed Varys to trace his steps back to the harbor where he took ship in no time. If that was at Starfall it may have been more difficult for him to pinpoint the location, but even Dornishmen talk, presumably.

17 hours ago, JNR said:

It's not completely clear to me Aerys could have done that.  

We can certainly imagine him threatening to murder Rhaegar's wife and children to squeeze the info out of Rhaegar, yes.  But we can also imagine Rhaegar pointing out to his father that such actions would instantly lose Aerys the support of the Dornish, not to mention his own support in leading his father's now-much-diminished host anywhere.  I'm not sure how Aerys would have responded in this scenario, which might have amounted to a stalemate.

I have a different view on the matter. King Aerys II actually did blackmail Prince Doran around that time by threatening the lives of his sister and her children, and neither did Rhaegar intervene nor did this cause to not support the Targaryens.

You have to consider that Rhaegar may have been the very reason why King Aerys II had to threaten Prince Doran to fall in line. After all, Rhaegar was the one to public humiliate Elia, House Martell, and Dorne with the Lyanna thing. Aerys II never did all that much to provoke Dorne in a similar degree.

Also keep in mind that Aerys II apparently decided that Rhaegar should command the loyalist forces fighting against the rebels - something Prince Doran and the Dornishmen in general may have not approved of because they may have not been willing to work with that man.

Aerys' belief that the Dornishmen betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident was apparently wrong; but his fear that Lewyn and his people might do something like that may have been justified. Rhaegar effectively dumped Elia, and while her son was still Prince Rhaegar's heir at that time, nobody could know what a King Rhaegar might decree - with a Queen Lyanna whispering in his ear, urging him to sit her blood on the Iron Throne.

It is pretty clear that Doran Martell's ultimate plans - aside from peace and prosperity from Dorne and vengeance for past crimes - is to see a scion of House Martell again on the Iron Throne. That's what the Rhaegar-Elia union promised, and that would have been the result of Viserys III-Arianne, Daenerys-Quentyn, and possibly Aegon-Arianne.

Rhaegar's stupid Lyanna affair ruined all of that, and the Dornish only returned into camp Targaryen after the murders of Elia and the children. Prior to that, they might have been on the verge of cutting their ties with the Targaryens - and were only prevented by Aerys' blackmail (and perhaps the hope that the Lyanna thing might be resolved after the war).

As to the Rhaegar-Aerys dynamic in general:

At this point there is no indication that Aerys II was in any way, shape, or form forced to grant Rhaegar anything, or dependent on his son in any way. Rhaegar had disappeared for months, abandoning both his family and his future kingdom in the process of that. He was effectively a deserting, running away from the responsibility the Heir Apparent owed his father and the Realm.

That is not a very powerful position to negotiate.

It is true that Aerys II could not possibly serve as a figurehead or supreme commander for his own armies - even if he wanted to do that. But it is just as clear that Aerys had more than enough suitable supreme commanders for his army. He could have sent his Hand, Lord Chelsted, he could have chosen another courtier, but most prominently he could have chosen any of his Kingsguard, especially Ser Barristan Selmy, the veteran from the Stepstones who had slain Maelys the Monstrous with his own hands.

If he had not wasted Ser Gerold Hightower on the mission to find Rhaegar he could also have given command to that man - the man who, in place of Prince Aerys, commanded the Targaryen army during the War of the Ninepenny Kings after the death of Lord Ormund Baratheon.

Aerys II could have given Rhaegar no place in his army, or he could have made him to the same kind of figurehead he himself had been back on the Stepstones when Lord Ormund and later Ser Gerold commanded the Targaryen forces.

That he didn't do that makes it very unlikely that the issue of the whereabouts of Lyanna Stark did not come up as a matter of contention between father and son - either Aerys II knew where she was, and didn't care, or he wasn't even interested enough in her to ask about her.

The idea that he wanted to know and Rhaegar refused to tell him makes little sense in comparison to that. What we know about Aerys' personality indicates that he would have seen such defiance on Rhaegar's part as signs of treason or insubordination. The man was prone to irrational behavior and entirely capable of burning his own son alive, never mind that this would have also put himself in a very bad light/position.

17 hours ago, JNR said:

I am also in the camp of those who think Aerys absolutely would have taken Lyanna hostage if he possibly could have for the obvious staggering political gain it would bring him, just as (see above) he already had done, and at the same time, with Elia, to ensure the loyalty of the Dornish, whom he saw as critical.

Women usually are not very good hostages. Doran isn't a Targaryen enemy yet, he can be pushed to behave, but the rebels are already rebelling. They won't stop just because King Aerys II holds a woman they all like. Just as Robb didn't care about Sansa during his rebellion, there is no reason to believe Lyanna was worth anything as a hostage.

Rhaenyra Targaryen held Queen Alicent and Queen Helaena as hostages during the Dance, but none of their male relations (or their supporters) ended their rebellions; Maegor held Queen Alyssa and her younger children as hostages, but that didn't prevent Prince Aegon from raising an army and rebelling against his uncle, etc.

And, in a sense, Aerys II actually did have Lyanna. She wasn't in KL, but under the protection of the Kingsguard, and if Aerys II knew where she was - which he may have done - he might have had the means to command her execution in a matter of days (via raven and messenger). What Ser Gerold would have done if he had received a command written in the king's own hand to kill Lyanna Stark is difficult to say, but considering that she happened to be a member of a house which rebelled against the Iron Throne, I daresay he would have understood how his king could have concluded that such a person had lost the right to live.

But it actually seems that Aerys and Rhaegar sort of reconciled. It may be that Aerys accepted Rhaegar's marriage to Rhaegar, being reminded of the love match of his own parents and uncle. We don't know. Elia was effectively Rhaegar's dumped wife. He never loved her, and we don't know how much he cared about her after his return. He clearly didn't succeed in protecting her or his children from his father. How Aerys treated her is not necessarily a model for how he would (or intended to) treat Lyanna.

[Black Crow]

20 hours ago, JNR said:

I am also in the camp of those who think Aerys absolutely would have taken Lyanna hostage if he possibly could have for the obvious staggering political gain it would bring him, just as (see above) he already had done, and at the same time, with Elia, to ensure the loyalty of the Dornish, whom he saw as critical.

I've read remarks that he was just too insane to think of that obvious move.  Maybe; I'm not so sure.

Given that just about everything we think we know about Aerys comes from hostile sources, he may not have been so mad as we've been led to believe, but even supposing that to be the case paranoia of the kind apparently afflicting Aerys, is usually accompanied by considerable cunning. I therefore find it very hard to believe that Aerys simply overlooked a possible advantage of this kind. 

[The Twinslayer]

On 4/6/2018 at 5:26 AM, SirArthur said:

Maybe you do, I don't. In my book there are at least 4 contenders, our womanizer Rhaegar can be linked to: Elia, Lyanna, Cersei, Ashara. And the only thing that places Lyanna over Cersei or Ashara is a single action during a tourney. 

However, of the four women presented, Lyanna is the one woman he spend the least amount of time with (none) prior to the tourney. I would hardly call that love. In contrast to Robert, who actually spend time with Lyanna. 

I don’t see any indication that Rhaegar was interested in Ashara.  I have wondered whether he had an affair with Cersei based on her thoughts about him and the long history of Targaryens taking mistresses.  

We know from her meeting with Maggy the Frog that Cersei believed when she was young that she would one day marry Rhaegar (after he became king).  And later she thinks that as between Robert and Rhaegar, the wrong man came back from the Trident.  She clearly had a thing for Rhaegar.

And it is likely she acted on those feelings.  She is never shy about bedding men outside of marriage. And she may have thought Rhaegar would put Elia aside for her — she talks about the fact that a wife can be put aside in one of her first appearances in AGOT.  So whether it would have been possible for Rhaegar to do that or not, Cersei seems to have believed that he could — once he was king.

So how likely is it that Rhaegar turned her down?  Most people think he was unfaithful to Elia, so that is not a stretch.  And his family history strongly suggests he was brought up to believe that having a highborn (or lowborn) mistress was normal for a man in his position.  Targaryen bastards were so common they even had  a name for them — dragonseeds.  And Cersei is considered to be very beautiful.  If the Prince of Dragonstone was going to follow his family history of taking a mistress, why not a beautiful one?

Finally, there is one more subtle clue: the comparison between Jaime and Tyrion where it is said that the difference between them is that Jaime doesn’t bed whores.  (Instead, he beds Cersei).  Well, who else does not frequent brothels?  Rhaegar — at least that is what Ned Stark thinks.  So this could be a clue — the two men with a reputation for not going to brothels (Rhaegar and Jaime) are two men who were sleeping with Cersei.

6 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Given that just about everything we think we know about Aerys comes from hostile sources, he may not have been so mad as we've been led to believe, but even supposing that to be the case paranoia of the kind apparently afflicting Aerys, is usually accompanied by considerable cunning. I therefore find it very hard to believe that Aerys simply overlooked a possible advantage of this kind. 

Lyanna almost certainly was a hostage when she died.  The kings guard at the toj had a duty to deliver her to Aerys after Rhaegar died (and to Viserys after Aerys died).  If they could get her to Dragonstone it is unlikely Robert or Ned would have allowed an assault on the island as long as she was held there.  

There is even a nice parallel in AGOT when Trant (a kings guard) is sent to take Arya hostage.  

Other female hostages included Sansa (betrothed to Joffrey but a hostage nonetheless), Myrcella (betrothed to Trystane but also a hostage), and Elia (married to the crown prince but still used as a hostage by Aerys).  

The three kings guard at the toj would have seen Lyanna’s value as a hostage and they would have been duty bound to treat her as such.

[JNR]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I have a different view on the matter. King Aerys II actually did blackmail Prince Doran around that time by threatening the lives of his sister and her children, and neither did Rhaegar intervene nor did this cause to not support the Targaryens.

Yes, I'm saying Rhaegar could have called this bluff.

"Kill them if you see fit, father... I certainly can't stop you.  But understand as you do that the Dornish will surely abandon you once they're dead, and your chances of defeating Robert will plummet to zero.  Understand also that there's no chance I'll be leading any of your forces anywhere, for any reason.  So killing my wife and children is tantamount to losing the Rebellion, your throne, and unless you flee, your life as well."

We have no particular reason to think he said this, but we also have no particular reason to think Aerys tried to force Rhaegar to say or do anything.   We must invent both halves of such an exchange.

Also, of course, if they did have an exchange like the above... it would hardly have registered favorably with Rhaegar, and he might even have said something manifestly treasonous to Jaime such as 

Quote

When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made.

on the very day he left for the Trident.

[Lord Varys]

27 minutes ago, JNR said:

Yes, I'm saying Rhaegar could have called this bluff.

The Mad King doesn't bluff. He simply does what he wants to do. Anybody trying the threaten Aerys II without having the ability to actually physically destroy him is risking to face the champion of House Targaryen. And Rhaegar should have had a realistic enough picture of his old man to know that.

27 minutes ago, JNR said:

"Kill them if you see fit, father... I certainly can't stop you.  But understand as you do that the Dornish will surely abandon you once they're dead, and your chances of defeating Robert will plummet to zero.  Understand also that there's no chance I'll be leading any of your forces anywhere, for any reason.  So killing my wife and children is tantamount to losing the Rebellion, your throne, and unless you flee, your life as well."

The Targaryens weren't really dependent on the Dornish support, anyway. There were 40,000 loyalists at the Trident, only 10,000 were Dornishmen. And Rhaegar had more troops than the rebels. Aerys II could have believed that 30,000 would be enough.

And again - there is really no reason to believe Aerys II felt dependent on Rhaegar to lead his forces. He eventually entrusted his son to do this, but we don't know whether he felt compelled to do this, nor whether Rhaegar wanted to do that.

In fact, it might be that Aerys II forced Rhaegar to lead his armies, forcing him to return to court by having Hightower deliver the message that Elia and the children would burn if Rhaegar didn't return to court at once. The mad reasoning behind that could have been a mad hope that Rhaegar might die in battle against the rebels.

The man was a nutcase. Such a scenario would fit well with his mad notions after Steffon's death - the man thought Tywin was out to get him, yet he was too afraid to dismiss, arrest, or execute the man. Perhaps Aerys II was, by that time, also too afraid to openly move against Rhaegar? We don't know.

Another motivation behind all that could be that Aerys II blamed his lovestruck, ingrate son for the mess they all were in - Rhaegar abducting Lyanna had caused all this, and so he wanted Rhaegar to resolve it - or die in the attempt.

It is odd that Rhaegar abandons his 'true love' in the middle of nowhere, fails to ensure the safety of his other family, and also does nothing to ensure seize power in KL despite the fact that he technically wields considerable power.

Those are not the actions of a man in control of things - nor do they appear to be the actions of a man who wanted power.

27 minutes ago, JNR said:

We have no particular reason to think he said this, but we also have no particular reason to think Aerys tried to force Rhaegar to say or do anything.   We must invent both halves of such an exchange.

We don't know what happened, true. But we do know that father and son must have met each other again, and that there must have been a conversation. Else Rhaegar would have never commanded the Targaryen army.

27 minutes ago, JNR said:

Also, of course, if they did have an exchange like the above... it would hardly have registered favorably with Rhaegar, and he might even have said something manifestly treasonous to Jaime such as 

on the very day he left for the Trident.

This happened at a later date. Rhaegar trained the new Targaryen troops for months, and might have looked where the men where who would follow him rather than Aerys II when push came to shove. Jaime was clearly Rhaegar's man.

But the idea that this guy could have gone through with the changes he wanted to make only show his naiveté. Robert put him down. The rebels won. If Rhaegar had won, the man might have been consumed by wildfire just as the rest of KL. He had no clue about the wildfire plan. And we can be reasonably sure that Aerys II was determined to give Rhaegar the same welcome as he intended to give Robert had he believed the man would move against him.

And if I had to guess Rhaegar intended to use his victory at the Trident as the beginning of some sort of council - he would have offered favorable terms to the defeated rebels if they bent the knee in exchange for them accepting him as Prince Regent for his mad father - or even do him homage as King Rhaegar. Afterwards they would have gone back the capital with their united armies to deal with the Mad King and his sycophants. And then the wildfire would have dealt with them all.

[Megorova]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is also true. Although going by ship would have allowed Varys to trace his steps back to the harbor where he took ship in no time. If that was at Starfall it may have been more difficult for him to pinpoint the location, but even Dornishmen talk, presumably.

Actually the ship, is the kind of method of traveling, that could be used totally untraceable.

For example, Rhaegar could have sent someone, several people, to hire a ship from some harbor. Not necessary even from some nearest harbor. One of those people had a similar height and build as Rhaegar, let's call him Stranger. When they hired that ship, the Stranger kept his face hidden, for example he was wearing a hooded cloak. Then several times in the beginning of their journey, he talked with a few crew members, or ate with them or other passengers, and revealed his face a few times. Then he pretended that he got sick, sea sick or something like that, so for the rest of his journey to KL, he will be staying in his cabin. Then at certain point of their journey, they have stopped at night, close to shore, for example to replentish their stock of fresh water. And during that stop, people that were sent by Rhaegar, also came off board, to spent a night on shore, including the Stranger. All the rest of crew returned on board. Then Rhaegar came there, unnoticed by anyone from the ship. He and the Stranger exchanged their clothes. The Stranger took Rhaegar's horse and went back, from wherever Rhaegar came. And Rhaegar with the rest of Stranger's companions, on the next morning returned on board of their ship. He went to Stranger's cabin, and for the rest of their journey, stayed there. After arriving to KL's harbor, Rhaegar went on shore, but didn't went to Red Keep for another day or two. Maybe by that time, the ship on which he arrived, already sailed away from KL. Or even if it didn't, and after Rhaegar's arrival home, Varys, or someone else, would have tried to find out, from where did Rhaegar came, that person wouldn't have found out anything. On the day, when Rhaegar came to Red Keep, amongst ships that arrived to KL's harbor that day, none didn't brought a passenger, whose description matched to Rhaegar's, or some passenger, that was hiding his identity. And a few days earlier, there arrived more ships, and on one of them did arrived some weirdo, that kept his face hidden, but several people on that ship, saw his face, and that guy didn't had silver-gold hair or purple eyes of Targaryens. Furthermore, the ship arrived, for example from Oldtown, or the Arbor, and didn't stopped in any ports or harbors on their way, and didn't took on board any other passengers. And no one will even remember, an insignificant stop, in the middle of nowhere, that they took to replentish their water reserves. 

Or even some less complicated method than that.

So actually it is possible, that Rhaegar arrived to KL, and no one knew, from where exactly did he came. And the part, that he returned from the south, is what he himself revealed to whoever asked him. Though he said only that, and nothing more, not even how did he came to KL, or when, or with whom.

If Varys could have traced, from where did Rhaegar came, then he could have also found out, with whom exactly Rhaegar was, and what happened there. But so far there wasn't even a single hint in the books, that Varys knows something about Jon, that Jon is Rhaegar's son. And if he doesn't knew such a HUGE news, like Lyanna's pregnancy, then it's unlikely that he knew, from where did Rhaegar came. Because if he did knew that, then he could have also traced all the way back to Lyanna and Jon. But nothing in the books indicates even the slightest possibility of it. Varys is not an omniscient being, there's lots of stuff, that he doesn't know. In the beginning of AGOT Varys didn't even knew, what LF planned to do, and 15 years ago, Varys' spy Network wasn't as developed, as it is now.

[IceFire125]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

If Varys could have traced, from where did Rhaegar came, then he could have also found out, with whom exactly Rhaegar was, and what happened there. But so far there wasn't even a single hint in the books, that Varys knows something about Jon, that Jon is Rhaegar's son. And if he doesn't knew such a HUGE news, like Lyanna's pregnancy, then it's unlikely that he knew, from where did Rhaegar came. Because if he did knew that, then he could have also traced all the way back to Lyanna and Jon. But nothing in the books indicates even the slightest possibility of it. Varys is not an omniscient being, there's lots of stuff, that he doesn't know. In the beginning of AGOT Varys didn't even knew, what LF planned to do, and 15 years ago, Varys' spy Network wasn't as developed, as it is now.

3

I agree Varys is not omniscient.  In fact, we find out about the loyalty of "his" little birds as not always loyal or suspect of not being his own.

The conversation between Tyrion and Varys as they go through the tunnels, regarding Stannis knowing about the King's (Robert) children being illegitimate and bastards born of incest between Jaime and Cersei, thus making the claim of being the true king of Westeros.  Noticed the info about Varys' little birds and spies...

“I am pleased to hear it, my lord. Some of your sister’s hirelings are mine as well, unbeknownst to her. I should hate to think they had grown so sloppy as to be seen.”

...

...but I find it best to err on the side of caution.”
“How is it a brothel happens to have a secret entrance?”
“The tunnel was dug for another King’s Hand, whose honor would not allow him to enter such a house openly. Chataya has closely guarded the knowledge of its existence.”
“And yet you knew of it.”
“Little birds fly through many a dark tunnel. Careful, the steps are steep.”

...

Tyrion adjusted the heavy cloak and paced restlessly. “You missed a lively council. Stannis has crowned himself, it seems.”
“I know.”
“He accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”
“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.
“Someone like you, perchance?”
“Am I suspected? It was not me.”
“If it had been, would you admit it?”
“No. But why should I betray a secret I have kept so long? It is one thing to deceive a king, and quite another to hide from the cricket in the rushes and the little bird in the chimney. Besides, the bastards were there for all to see.”
“Robert’s bastards? What of them?”
“He fathered eight, to the best of my knowing,” Varys said as he wrestled with the saddle. “Their mothers were copper and honey, chestnut and butter, yet the babes were all black as ravens … and as ill-omened, it would seem. So when Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen slid out between your sister’s thighs, each as golden as the sun, the truth was not hard to glimpse.”

Tyrion shook his head. If she had borne only one child for her husband, it would have been enough to disarm suspicion … but then she would not have been Cersei. “If you were not this whisperer, who was?”
“Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.
“Littlefinger?”
“I named no name.”

-----

I believe at this moment GRRM is speaking to the readers through Varys and Tyrion regarding Jon:

So when Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen slid out between your sister’s thighs, each as golden as the sun, the truth was not hard to glimpse.

For Varys it was easy to tell that Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen wasn't Robert's children because all of Robert's bastards had black hair.  It was easy to think that Ned's bastard he took up North was his because he has the Stark look.

Tyrion shook his head. If she had borne only one child for her husband, it would have been enough to disarm suspicion

Tyrion thoughtfully repeats what Varys said (in how to protect her kin's children), however, add this to how it relates to Ned's thoughts to protect Jon.  It wouldn't have been enough to disarm suspicion that Jon is not Ned's son if he didn't claim the boy as his bastard son.

Similarly, GRRM basically shouts to the reader when Stannis and Davos were talking about sacrificing Edric Storm for the realm, that it was the child's duty to die.  Likewise, we recall back to Ned, in the sacrifice he went through for Jon.  Jon was the realm, he was everything, he is royalty, trueborn and the king that Ned vividly remembered the three Kingsguard died for at the tower.  

“Your Grace,” said Davos, “the cost …”
“I know the cost!... what is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom?”
“Everything,” said Davos, softly.