U.S. Politics: Alabama Jones and the Template of Doom

[OldGimletEye]

On 12/15/2017 at 5:13 AM, Gorn said:

What is your opinion on negative interest rates? My own mortgage rate is tied to the Euribor, so I personally profit from the current negative rate, but I'm curious about its wider macroeconomic effects.

I think if you're at the point where you're contemplating whether to do negative interest rates, you're likely not showing much fiscal rectitude by refusing to do any stimulus. But, again, whether to do fiscal stimulus is going to be a political decision, not one made by central bankers, and politically the confidence fairy austerity crowd has seemingly carried the day, negative rates is one of the options central bankers have to look at.

But, I think has some problems that makes it not the best response. One is that it's hard to implement in an economy that uses paper cash. If people find out they are likely have to pay negative interest on their bank deposits, they are likely to make cash withdrawals. To make it really work, you'd have to pretty much eliminate paper cash as a means of payment.

And then you might worry for people trying to "reach for the yield" as people switch from safe investments to riskier ones.

If were left with using only monetary policy, I think price level targeting is probably a better option. Or even central banks buying longer term assets.

 

[Fez]

7 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

The question (sort of) remains:

 

Would the governor of Arizona be able to appoint McCain's temporary stand in quickly enough to save tax reform?  As in before Jones takes office? 

 

Hmmm...didn't I read somewhere about another deathly ill republican senator???

 

Additional note, should something happen to McCain or this other republican Senator (am I remembering this correctly?  curious) how long before the conservative media starts spewing tales of conspiracy and assassination?  (Ideally with photo's of Clinton near the scene clutching an appropriate weapon)

There are two extremely ill Republican senators, John McCain and Thad Cochran. There is also one extremely ill Democratic senator, Mazie Hirono. McCain and Cochran were not available for votes this week, though both their offices claim they will be able to vote for tax reform. Hirono hasn't missed much senate time yet, but she was diagnosed with stage four kidney cancer in May and has been undergoing treatment ever since (the kidney was removed, but in October she announced that "spots" had now been found on her thyroid).

If any of them begin missing key votes, it'll greatly change the calculations of everything. I don't believe there is any way to replace a living senator who doesn't resign either. Maybe if they permanently lose conciousness there is; but being bedridden and non-transportable isn't enough (I have seen images at least once of a senator being wheeled in to the chamber on a gurney to vote).

As for any vacancies, I believe the process should be extremely quick to get the appointee seated (getting their credentials from the state's SoS, flying to DC, presenting them to the senate, and getting sworn can be done in only a day or two; unless there are any mandatory waiting periods in the state's process). The biggest possible delay I think is if Arizona Gov. Ducey doesn't know yet who he'd appoint. So far, Kelli Ward is the only serious candidate declared for the primary for Flake's seat, but there's been talk about a lot of other folks getting interested too. A second senate seat (and that likely won't have as competitive a primary since there will be an appointee incumbent) changes state politics quite a bit.

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Fez said:

I don't believe there is any way to replace a living senator who doesn't resign either. Maybe if they permanently lose conciousness there is; but being bedridden and non-transportable isn't enough

No, there's not.  All one has to do is remember Strom Thurmond or Robert Byrd to know this isn't the case.

8 minutes ago, Fez said:

The biggest possible delay I think is if Arizona Gov. Ducey doesn't know yet who he'd appoint. So far, Kelli Ward is the only serious candidate declared for the primary for Flake's seat, but there's been talk about a lot of other folks getting interested too.

This isn't something I like thinking about, but if McCain's seat opens up, Kelli Ward is just about the last person Ducey could and would appoint.

[Mexal]

Thread from a reporter for the WSJ who read all 375 texts between Page/Strzok (he wrote an article but behind pay wall). As you would expect, it wasn't all anti-Trump and the media once again jumped without providing the entire context.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 hours ago, Rippounet said:

For a eurocommie like myself it's fascinating to see how conservatism can lead people to be completely blind to their own self-interest. What I woner is whether it's sheer stupidity, FOXNews brainwashing, or both.

Group think and tribalism. 

[Rippounet]

This should be really interesting (it'll go live at noon ET):
http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Poverty/Pages/EndMissionUSA.aspx

[Morpheus]

Trump on TV just now: Bragging about Putin saying nice things about him. We need to rebuild the FBI. Everybody, all these committees, even his worst enemies, Democrats, keep saying there was no collusion but we keep finding things about the other side, Hillary and all. When you look at the FBI, justice department and all, everybody is very angry....

What fucking world does he live in?

Mueller firing has to be coming early in the year

[Mexal]

37 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Trump on TV just now: Bragging about Putin saying nice things about him. We need to rebuild the FBI. Everybody, all these committees, even his worst enemies, Democrats, keep saying there was no collusion but we keep finding things about the other side, Hillary and all. When you look at the FBI, justice department and all, everybody is very angry....

What fucking world does he live in?

Mueller firing has to be coming early in the year

He will have to fire Rosenstein first since Rosenstein just said on Wednesday that there is no cause to fire Mueller and that everything he has been doing has sound legal standing.

[DMC]

40 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

We need to rebuild the FBI. Everybody, all these committees, even his worst enemies, Democrats, keep saying there was no collusion but we keep finding things about the other side, Hillary and all. When you look at the FBI, justice department and all, everybody is very angry....

What fucking world does he live in?

Mueller firing has to be coming early in the year

This reminds me, there's a poll that's going around:

Quote

When asked if Mueller has a conflict of interest “as the former head of the FBI and a friend of James Comey,” 54 percent responded that the “relationship” between the two amounts to a conflict of interest, including 70 percent of Republicans, 53 percent of independents and 40 percent of Democrats.

That's a push poll.  It's disappointing as to who conducted it, but that's what it is.  Shouldn't be accepted with any legitimacy.

[Morpheus]

3 minutes ago, Mexal said:

He will have to fire Rosenstein first since Rosenstein just said on Wednesday that there is no cause to fire Mueller and that everything he has been doing has sound legal standing.

Republicans in the House would be on board with that if their performance the other day is anything to go by, if they are willing to create a conspiracy to justify firing Mueller, they can probably satisfy themselves with any excuse to push Rosenstein out.

I would like to think the attacks by conservative media and Republicans will lead to nothing. But with Trump continually expressing anger at the FBI and DoJ, things look to be converging.

[Morpheus]

8 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

This reminds me, there's a poll that's going around:

That's a push poll.  It's disappointing as to who conducted it, but that's what it is.  Shouldn't be accepted with any legitimacy.

I think the the close friendship between Comey and Mueller is a FOX invention too, I read somewhere that there is no evidence of any realtionship outside of working together. No reason to think they were fishing buddies or getting to together for a cookout.

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

I think the the close friendship between Comey and Mueller is a FOX invention too, I read somewhere that there is no evidence of any realtionship outside of working together. No reason to think they were fishing buddies or getting to together for a cookout.

The notion Comey and Mueller are good pals is destroyed once anyone examines their respective personalities.  It's ludicrous.

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

The notion Comey and Mueller are good pals is destroyed once anyone examines their respective personalities.  It's ludicrous.

Yea, it's actually flat out not true.

22 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Republicans in the House would be on board with that if their performance the other day is anything to go by, if they are willing to create a conspiracy to justify firing Mueller, they can probably satisfy themselves with any excuse to push Rosenstein out.

I would like to think the attacks by conservative media and Republicans will lead to nothing. But with Trump continually expressing anger at the FBI and DoJ, things look to be converging.

I get it. But he may not have the House for long and if he does fire Rosenstein to then fire Mueller, I think there will be a huge reaction in the country, which will push more people to the polls in November. And a lot of the investigation has happened so what happens with those 16 prosecutors? All of the information collected?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Morpheus said:

Trump on TV just now: Bragging about Putin saying nice things about him. We need to rebuild the FBI. Everybody, all these committees, even his worst enemies, Democrats, keep saying there was no collusion but we keep finding things about the other side, Hillary and all. When you look at the FBI, justice department and all, everybody is very angry....

What fucking world does he live in?

Mueller firing has to be coming early in the year

This one is easy to answer. Just look at the reports about the members on the NSC and how they won’t bring up the Russia investigation around Trump because it would offend him. Trump surrounds himself with yes men and sycophants because he wants to create his own reality. So to answer your question: his own world, in which he is handsome, great president who has accomplished more than any other president in the history of human societies. And he’s packing, bigly.

All lies of course…

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I still think Trump won’t fire Mueller unless he learns that he’s found some truly damning piece of evidence. What troubles me more is the idea that Mueller finds incriminating evidence about people around Trump, but not Trump himself, and it’s debatable about how bad it is and therefore the House doesn’t act on it. I honestly believe they would be OK with normalizing illegal activities for all the president’s men.

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, Mexal said:

I get it. But he may not have the House for long and if he does fire Rosenstein to then fire Mueller, I think there will be a huge reaction in the country, which will push more people to the polls in November. And a lot of the investigation has happened so what happens with those 16 prosecutors? All of the information collected?

It's hard to really figure how it would go down.  He would, at the very least have to fire Rosenstein to fire Mueller.  The next person in line is Associate Attorney General Rachel Brand.  Nobody knows if she would fire Mueller, but if she refused, firing Rosenstein + Brand + Mueller would look that much worse.

If we assume Trump fires enough deputy attorney generals to get rid of Mueller, then there's two real phases of backlash.  One is from the public, which would probably mean Trump's approval going down slightly, but Fox News has inoculated most Republicans against actually caring that Trump wants to be above the law.  So that is a cost, but a manageable one.  The other is from the Senate, which has already had a lot of Republican senators go on record (Grassley, Graham, McCain, Tillis that I can remember) say that Mueller is doing a good job and Trump firing him would be a big mistake.  What exactly they'd do isn't sure, since they absolutely don't want to be in that position. 

So I expect that if Trump fires Mueller, he will still be pressured to get the Justice Department to appoint someone to replace Mueller, rather than just let the investigation die.  Whether that person would be a Trump lapdog or an actual prosecutor is hard to say.  But the investigation has proceeded pretty far, so it would be hard to just stop it completely even if the new head was relatively Trump friendly.  In addition, the NY AG is already involved would certainly get more involved if Mueller is fired.  Given that he doesn't answer to Trump, and any charges he files are immune to Trump's pardon, that could be a big problem indeed.

All of this means that Trump firing Mueller is a very messy proposition for the WH, and could potentially make Trump look even more guilty heading towards 2018.  And if Democrats take over either house of Congress, you better believe they'll be bringing all of this back up again in their inquiries.  And most likely, they are going to be willing to go after Trump's money to see what is hiding there, something Mueller has thus far refused to do (Mueller's investigation into Deutschbank was to look at someone else's finances, not Trump's). 

Nonetheless, I agree that Trump is probably going to fire Mueller.  It seems like just a matter of when.  I doubt he wants to wait until Kushner is indicted, which means time might be running short. 

[James Arryn]

1 hour ago, dmc515 said:

This reminds me, there's a poll that's going around:

That's a push poll.  It's disappointing as to who conducted it, but that's what it is.  Shouldn't be accepted with any legitimacy.

Awesome. And then if Mueller is fried, anyone with any overlap with him then has conflict. And the if/when those people are removed for conflict...etc. The gift that keeps on giving.

[Mexal]

No surprise. Rubio is a coward. He wanted $2000, he got $1400 and he's a yes.

 

[Maltaran]

4 hours ago, Fez said:

I don't believe there is any way to replace a living senator who doesn't resign either. Maybe if they permanently lose conciousness there is; but being bedridden and non-transportable isn't enough (I have seen images at least once of a senator being wheeled in to the chamber on a gurney to vote).

I would assume if they've given power of attorney to someone, that person could resign on their behalf. Whether they'd use it or not is another matter - I heard that it used to be the case in the UK that seriously ill MPs preferred not to resign because their families would be financially better off if they died in office, I don't know if the Senate benefit package has a similar incentive to hang on.

[Mexal]

Another special election worth paying attention to is Tim Murphy's old seat (PA18). Connor Lamb, a 33 year old Marine vet, is the Democratic candidate and once again, it seems the Republicans chose a poor one. This election is particularly interesting as the make up of the electorate is 95% white.

Quote

“The steelworkers have by far the largest union membership of any in the district,” Mike Mikus, a Democratic operative in the area told The Daily Beast. “The Republicans played right into the Democrats’ hands in this district by talking about cutting Medicare and Medicaid,” he said referring to an agenda item for 2018 from House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI).

As opposed to Virginia and Alabama, Lamb won’t be able to benefit from a major minority voting bloc in the district, which is about 95 percent white. Instead, he will have to animate union members and their households, which Mikus estimated would make up about 25 percent of the vote in the district.

That effort could start with people like Darrin Kelly, executive vice president of the Allegheny County Labor Council.

“We believe that the extreme right of the GOP is completely controlled by corporate America,” Kelly told The Daily Beast from his truck, which he affectionately referred to as his office. “We believe that everything that comes in front of this Congress is geared towards taking care of the top one percent.”

Kelly, whose organization recently sent out a recommendation of unanimous support to the state’s AFL-CIO, said that voters in the district who were sympathetic to Trump’s populist campaign are starting to view his agenda as aligning with the corporate-oriented Republican Congress.

“I don’t think there’s any daylight at all because they’re walking hand in hand,” Kelly asserted.

Months away from a March showdown, national observers are taking notice of Lamb’s efforts, hoping it continues a trend for Democrats in the age of Trump.

“The argument is pretty straightforward: While the GOP is distracting and dividing working folks, they are picking your pocket, hammering your union, gutting your benefits, and raiding your retirement,” Paul Begala, who has a rich history in Pennsylvania, including working for Bob Casey Sr.’s gubernatorial campaign, told The Daily Beast. “The modern Democratic Party was built on that argument, and I think it is more powerful and relevant now than ever. I never saw a sign at a Trump rally that said: “CUT TAXES FOR GOLDMAN SACHS!”