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Tygett Lannister

What will happen in Vale [TWOW spoliers]

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Contains TWOW spoilers!

For me the most interesting part of the story is happening in Vale right now. So my question is what do you think will happen at the tournament and where is the story going later on?

There seems to be a political fight between Littlefinger's party, Lords Declarant and maybe Nestor Royce. Lords Declarant have signed a treaty with LF that he can keep his regency for a year and that they will see after that. Lord Grafton claims that Vale Lords are eager to sell food to merchants who are offering them good deals:

Quote

Near the bottom, she heard Lord Grafton’s booming voice, and followed.”The merchants are clamoring to buy, and the lords are clamoring to sell,” the Gulltowner was saying when she found them.

LF is aware winter is coming and that prices of food will get increasingly higher so they need to prevent selling food and even block ships that might be transporting food out of Vale. I think Vale lord's are also aware of this but a lot of them is in debts which Iron Bank is now calling in thanks to LF. LF of course wants to be the one helping Vale lords to pay of their debts. Grafton though is concerned about Lords Declarant gaining a lot of silver which would be useful for potential war.

Quote

  “Bronze Yohn will not wait, ”  Grafton complained.  “He need not ship through Gulltown, he has his own ports.  Whilst we are hoarding our harvest, Royce and the other Lords Declarant will turn theirs into silver, you may be sure of that.”

I don't really think silver is better than food in this scenario since I don't see mercenaries coming to fight in such extreme conditions as winter in Vale is. So if Lords Declarant are really getting ready for war they will also rather keep food, but I don't think they do, since they have just signed a treaty with LF and they still have their honor to look after.

I also believe Winged knights will be hostages to remove threat from some Lords Declerant, since tournament tilts are probably made by LF that right people will win the honor of serving in Sweetrobin's Winged knights.

Probably bigger threat to LF is Nestor Royce. He probably knows LF is behind murder of Lysa and knows that Alayne is Sansa. I still don't see him having hold of Sweetrobin and LF since there are armies of nobles loyal to Lord Protectorate LF.

I don't believe Mad Mouse will kidnap Sansa.

 

Edited by Tygett Lannister

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This thread is 100% guaranteed to be moved or locked. Inappropriate forum to post it in, and you knew it when you created the thread.

Poor form, chap.

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War will break out among the Lords of the vale.  Sansa will murder little Robert.   

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I think Sansa can be in danger because of her rival, daughter of spice merchant:

Quote
"Saffron?" Alayne tried not to laugh. "Truly?"
Ser Harrold had the grace to blush. "Her father says she is more precious to him than gold. He's rich, the richest man in Gulltown. A fortune in spices."
"What will you name the babe?" she asked. "Cinnamon if she's a girl? Cloves if he's a boy?"

Saffron's father can attempt eliminate Sansa if she comes close to marriage with Harry. Why bastardborn Alayne is better than daughter of rich merchant?

In aFfC lord of ancient noble house married merchant's daughter:

Quote

Petyr Baelish was clear across the Vale, though, attending Lord Lyonel Corbray at his wedding. A widower of forty-odd years, and childless, Lord Lyonel was to wed the strapping sixteen-year-old daughter of a rich Gulltown merchant.

so Saffron's father can nourish plans to wed his daughter to Harry the Heir.

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32 minutes ago, Pukisbaisals said:

I think Sansa can be in danger because of her rival, daughter of spice merchant:

Saffron's father can attempt eliminate Sansa if she comes close to marriage with Harry. Why bastardborn Alayne is better than daughter of rich merchant?

I don't think that is likely rich merchant has no motive to eliminate Sansa since heir to Lord Paramount will never be allowed to marry daughter of rich merchant. LF probably controls most of the business in Gulltown so could eliminate that merchant or they could be friends.

34 minutes ago, Pukisbaisals said:

In aFfC lord of ancient noble house married merchant's daughter:

so Saffron's father can nourish plans to wed his daughter to Harry the Heir.

He needed money desperately and it was arranged by LF while Harry doesn't needs money and we know Sansa is more than bastard of Lord of the smallest finger.

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1 hour ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

War will break out among the Lords of the vale.  Sansa will murder little Robert.   

Why would she do that, he is her friend?

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37 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

LF probably controls most of the business in Gulltown so could eliminate that merchant or they could be friends.

Maybe they are friends. It is possible,that father of Saffron is the same merchant, that is - he is Lord Corbray's father in law. Then Littlefinger bribed him with marriage to Lord Corbray. Still, richest merchant of Gulltown can play his own game and Littlefinger is not almighty and not immortal.

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Wishful thinking but I want Sansa to defeat Littlefinger and ally with Yohn Royce. I doubt that will happen. I just hope that House Royce survives this story. 

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42 minutes ago, Pukisbaisals said:

Maybe they are friends. It is possible,that father of Saffron is the same merchant, that is - he is Lord Corbray's father in law. Then Littlefinger bribed him with marriage to Lord Corbray. Still, richest merchant of Gulltown can play his own game and Littlefinger is not almighty and not immortal.

He isn't but he is richer than Gulltown merchant.

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1 hour ago, Tygett Lannister said:

He isn't but he is richer than Gulltown merchant.

What makes you sure he is not the same Gulltown merchant?

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I think that the Vale is primarily important because it is the current location of one of the main characters (Sansa).  Its role will be to showcase Sansa's transition from a pawn into a player.

Myranda Royce certainly knows who Sansa is, and I expect that her father Nestor does too.  I wouldn't be surprised if Yohn Royce knows, as well as Lady Waynwood (Harry's guardian).  Sansa's first test will be to realize this and to get them on her side.

Sansa is not going to marry Harry the Heir.  She may string things along to please Littefinger, but won't do anything she cannot get out of.  She has no interest in marriage at this time, and can probably use her marriage to Tyrion to avoid it for the time being.

9 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

I also believe Winged knights will be hostages to remove threat from some Lords Declerant, since tournament tilts are probably made by LF that right people will win the honor of serving in Sweetrobin's Winged knights.

Littlefinger hold hostages?  Him and what army?  He barely has a household guard.  If he is having to hire the likes of the Mad Mouse, I seriously doubt that he has the manpower to hold on to well-connected hostages.

5 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

War will break out among the Lords of the vale.  Sansa will murder little Robert.   

Sansa has yet to deliberately hurt another human being.   I can see absolutely no reason for her to deliberately kill an 8 year old who she likes and is a relative.  I do expect her to come to the realization that somebody needs to be killed - but that someone is Littlefinger.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Its role will be to showcase Sansa's transition from a pawn into a player.

Or not. Your discussion is not implausible, but it's also a good possibility that Sansa just becomes a higher-end pawn. Learning to flirt and tease are all useful skills, to be sure. Olenna Tyrell knew them well, and Littlefinger likely made sure his "girls" in his brothels did, too. But in no way can one of Littlefinger's 'hos be compared with the Queen of Thorns in terms of political ability and effectiveness, even though some of their techniques were the same.

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The worst thought occurred to me reading through...Oh gads, what if this is all a set up for more late coming players like the Ironborn and Dorne?   Will be interesting to see what really happens with Sweet Robert, though.  

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14 hours ago, Pukisbaisals said:

What makes you sure he is not the same Gulltown merchant?

"he isn't" as LF isn't immortal. It is possible it is same merchant.

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12 hours ago, Nevets said:

Littlefinger hold hostages?  Him and what army?  He barely has a household guard.  If he is having to hire the likes of the Mad Mouse, I seriously doubt that he has the manpower to hold on to well-connected hostages.

Nobles loyal to LF's regency have an army. Far from his army though.

Edited by Tygett Lannister

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A grand tourney, which never seem to go as expected in Westeros and are usually marked by some type of folly and or tragedy. Baelish has a lot big plans for the poor man's Bobby B, Harrold Hardying. I think Ser. Ossifer Lipps will be this tourneys Uthor Underleaf, an old man who doesn't seem like he'll be a threat to win against most of the younger Knights. Baelish will match him with Harrold in the tilts, then Harrold will get mortally wounded like his ancestor Humfrey Hardying. Baelish will throw a fit and take it out on Sansa because the tourney was her idea. Sansa will get pissed and with Harry dead she'll except Strong Robin's proposal. Benjicot will overhear Baelish yelling at Sansa for ruining his Harry the heir plans while revealing her true identity in his rant. Benjicot will tell the Royces and Yohn will take action. He'll imprison Baelish and marry Sansa Stark and Robert Arryn in front of all who came to watch the tourney.

Said tourney will be remembered as when Robert Arryn, King of Mountain and Vale married his Queen, Sansa of House Stark.  At least that is what I'm hoping will happen.

 

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24 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

A grand tourney, which never seem to go as expected in Westeros and are usually marked by some type of folly and or tragedy. Baelish has a lot big plans for the poor man's Bobby B, Harrold Hardying. I think Ser. Ossifer Lipps will be this tourneys Uthor Underleaf, an old man who doesn't seem like he'll be a threat to win against most of the younger Knights. Baelish will match him with Harrold in the tilts, then Harrold will get mortally wounded like his ancestor Humfrey Hardying. Baelish will throw a fit and take it out on Sansa because the tourney was her idea. Sansa will get pissed and with Harry dead she'll except Strong Robin's proposal. Benjicot will overhear Baelish yelling at Sansa for ruining his Harry the heir plans while revealing her true identity in his rant. Benjicot will tell the Royces and Yohn will take action. He'll imprison Baelish and marry Sansa Stark and Robert Arryn in front of all who came to watch the tourney.

Said tourney will be remembered as when Robert Arryn, King of Mountain and Vale married his Queen, Sansa of House Stark.  At least that is what I'm hoping will happen.

I don't see LF getting angry at Sansa.

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11 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Nobles loyal to LF's regency have an army. Far from his army though.

And I doubt that they would be willing to allow their use to hold hostages.  Assuming, of course, that the hostages aren't their kids in the first place.

10 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

I don't see LF getting angry at Sansa.

On the other hand, I do see Sansa getting angry at Littlefinger.  He's given her plenty of reasons, once she discovers them.  Plus possibly more to come (plotting deaths of Sweetrobin and Harry, for instance).

It is also worthwhile noting that the tournament will expose Sansa to widespread public view, and possible recognition.  How she handles this, if it happens, could be interesting.

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On ‎12‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 4:14 PM, Nevets said:

I think that the Vale is primarily important because it is the current location of one of the main characters (Sansa).  Its role will be to showcase Sansa's transition from a pawn into a player.

Myranda Royce certainly knows who Sansa is, and I expect that her father Nestor does too.  I wouldn't be surprised if Yohn Royce knows, as well as Lady Waynwood (Harry's guardian).  Sansa's first test will be to realize this and to get them on her side.

Sansa is not going to marry Harry the Heir.  She may string things along to please Littefinger, but won't do anything she cannot get out of.  She has no interest in marriage at this time, and can probably use her marriage to Tyrion to avoid it for the time being.

Littlefinger hold hostages?  Him and what army?  He barely has a household guard.  If he is having to hire the likes of the Mad Mouse, I seriously doubt that he has the manpower to hold on to well-connected hostages.

Sansa has yet to deliberately hurt another human being.   I can see absolutely no reason for her to deliberately kill an 8 year old who she likes and is a relative.  I do expect her to come to the realization that somebody needs to be killed - but that someone is Littlefinger.

 

 

I believe this is a misconception.  LF does not have an army, but he has plenty of household knights.  The Eyrie had knights/men at arms, and now they are down in the gates of the moon.  Nestor Royces men probably outnumber them, but if he is going along with LF, that just adds to it.  We are shown LF hiring the Mad Mouse, we don't see how many others he has hired on.  Again I am not claiming he has an army, but when you are defending a fortress you don't need an army, several hundred men are more than capable of arresting 8 nobles, and with those 8 nobles lives on the line, their parents likely would not storm the castle.  Duskendale held out for months with the king inside in this way, and the only reason they were willing to storm the castle in the end was because Tywin was the one calling the shots, not the parents of the people held captive, as it would be in this case.

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29 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I believe this is a misconception.  LF does not have an army, but he has plenty of household knights.  The Eyrie had knights/men at arms, and now they are down in the gates of the moon.  Nestor Royces men probably outnumber them, but if he is going along with LF, that just adds to it.  We are shown LF hiring the Mad Mouse, we don't see how many others he has hired on.  Again I am not claiming he has an army, but when you are defending a fortress you don't need an army, several hundred men are more than capable of arresting 8 nobles, and with those 8 nobles lives on the line, their parents likely would not storm the castle.  Duskendale held out for months with the king inside in this way, and the only reason they were willing to storm the castle in the end was because Tywin was the one calling the shots, not the parents of the people held captive, as it would be in this case.

Several hundred?  A few dozen, maybe.  The Eyrie had a skeleton crew, so he's not getting a whole lot from there.  Nestor is happy to give political cover, but I don't know how far he is willing to put his neck out against his neighbors.  I think hostages would be a last gasp by Littlefinger, certainly not something he would do unless his back was to the wall.  Sansa's response would be interesting, to say the least.  

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