Buddhakin

Harwin is the Hooded man

51 posts in this topic

So I did a quick look around to see if anyone has already come to this conclusion but I didn't see anything so I apologize in advance to anyone who may have said this first and here we go.

All we know of the hooded man at Winterfell is that he knew of Theon well and may have known him personally based off his contempt for Theon and that Theon never saw his face. It is highly likely (but still not a fact) that the hooded man murdered Little Walder. 

Now lets shift to Harwin. Harwin was one of the twenty men from Neds household guard that went off to assist Dondarrion in arresting Gregor Clegane. Of these twenty men, only six of them were still alive and with Dondarrion when the Brotherhood without Banners captured Arya (I don't remember whether or not Harwin includes himself in that number so it may be six besides Harwin, or six including Harwin, but that's beside the point right now) and it was Harwin who identified Arya. The last time we here specifically about Harwin in the story is when unidentified Catelyn Starks body and begs for her to be brought back to life, which Thoros refuses to do and Beric decides to do himself. 

Since it was Harwin's brilliant idea to revive Catelyn, it is safe to assume that he chose to stay with Stoneheart when the BWB divided into two groups, those who left with Edric Dayne, and those who remained with Stoneheart, it is also very likely that the other surviving Northmen remained with Stoneheart but we know nothing of their character development besides the fact that they exist and are still alive and where they originally came from. So Harwin is likely Stonehearts right hand man in the new BWB.

Next we must look at Stoneheart's movements and operations in the Riverlands which we see in the ASOS epilogue and Jamie's (and to a lesser extent, Briennes) POV chapters in the Riverlands in AFFC. Stoneheart is successfully infiltrating the ranks of Freys in the Riverlands well enough to learn when and where to catch them isolated enough to capture and kill them which means the BWB have a decent spy network in the Riverlands and the means to send information back and forth effectively enough to use the info effectively. We know this to be true because Tom of Sevens was at Riverrun during and after the seige and when Ryman Frey left the seige at Riverrun he was intercepted by Stoneheart. Stoneheart got her sons crown back from Ryman's whore.

Now, my attempt at dot-connecting leads me to believe that Stoneheart is well informed enough to know that Roose Bolton is returning North with Freys who played an active role in the Red Wedding and that they have Arya Stark who they plan to marry to Ramsay. We would have no way of knowing whether or not Stoneheart knows that this "Arya" is actually Jeyne Poole but that doesn't matter too much because Stoneheart would want to infiltrate their ranks regardless so she could attempt to pick of the Boltons and Freys in Winterfell. 

It would be an easy thing for one or a few men to attach themselves to the host returning North and Stoneheart would be sensible to send one of the Northmen from Ned's guard to travel with the Bolton-Frey host to Winterfell because they will naturally be able to fit in with Northmen better and know Winterfell better than anyone returning North with Roose. Harwin is the man for this job. It seems so out of character for Stoneheart, based off what we know about her and her intentions (to kill everyone who had a hand in  the ruin of her house and all those loyal to those people) for her to not attempt to send men North to kill off her enemies (and rescue her daughter, provided she believes that they have the real Arya). I concede that the hooded man very well could be one of the other 5 or 6 Northmen and that Theon would recognize any of them so they no matter which of them it is, they would still have to hide their identity from Theon. But it is most likely Harwin because not only are we familiar as readers with Harwin as opposed to one of these other BWB Northmen, but Harwin derives most of his plot contribution from his interaction with Arya and the fact that Arya (fake Arya anyway) is at Winterfell makes it seem more appropriate for Harwin to turn up there out of any BWB member. And like I said before, the hooded man is believed to be the culprit for the death of a Frey. Tell me what you think and thanks for reading!

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I agree.  I'm not 100% on this, but I feel Harwin is the top candidate for many of the reasons you stated.  I really feel his motivation and mission is an Arya centric one, not a revenge murder mission.  Harwin is already established in the story has having a personal connection to Arya, most importantly he's spent one-on-one face time with her.  As you said, he's a character that has shown deep emotional attachment to the Starks.  He's the one that pleaded to revive Catelyn.  Not because he thought she'd turn into a revenge-driven revenant, but simply out of grief at her horrific fate and defilement of her body.  It reminds me of the way Arya asked Thoros if he could revive her beheaded father.  You noted that Harwin knows the layout of WF, which is important.  But I think what gives Harwin an advantage over other candidates is that he can positively ID Arya.  Also that Arya knows him and would trust him.         

We know that LSH and the BwB are actively looking for Arya.  Before they hang Merritt Frey they ask him about the Hound having Arya.  The Heddles and Gendry are stationed at the inn at the crossroads, one of Arya's last known sightings with the Hound.  They're collecting orphans from the area so there's a hope that Arya will be found among them.  So they are following up on leads and it makes sense they'd check out any lead they got.  One of those leads would be the news that Roose is marrying his son to Arya.   

This is using some information from the ASOIAF timeline.  We know from Jon VI, ADWD that Roose is announcing his son’s marriage to Arya in letters calling for the Northern vassals to swear fealty circa mid-April.  So word of “Arya Stark” being in the North and her marriage to Ramsay Bolton is getting around and it would be big news.  Brienne’s capture by the BwB happens in mid to late May where Harwin was present.  Theon first meets the hooded man at the beginning of August.  That’s enough time for even a single rider travelling at an average speed to get to WF from the Trident region (8-10ish weeks).  So I don’t see how he can be ruled out based on time and distance.  He may not have had the opportunity yet to get a good look at her since Jeyne has been confined and now she's left with Theon.  It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the HM because we've now lost the POV inside the castle at least until Stannis retakes it.  We may find that he's affected the plot somehow off page during this time.  

 

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1 hour ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

This is using some information from the ASOIAF timeline. 

You are spot on with this because the BWB is still searching for Arya when they find Cat. This is three days after the red wedding. At this time, Jamie and Brienne are still traveling south because Jamie misses the purple wedding which isn't arranged until after the red wedding. Now Jeyne Poole leaves with the guard that escorts Jamie and Brienne south and as soon as she makes it to the Twins to meet up with the Boltons, the Bolton's start travelling North to Winterfell. This means that Stoneheart had been resurrected for weeks and had been investigating Arya's potential whereabouts during this time prior to the Bolton/Frey host leaving the Twins for the Neck. Stoneheart would have plenty of time to hear rumors that the Lannisters recovered Arya and gave her to Bolton along with rumors that Arya was traveling east towards the salt pans. Naturally she want to investigate every possibility, which is why, like you pointed out, they are collecting orphans and bringing them back to the crossroads to be identified, probably by Gendry, who will know Arya on sight as well as Harwin or Stoneheart can. But Stoneheart will have more than enough time to hear that Bolton has Arya BEFORE Bolton even reaches the Neck, giving Harwin plenty of time to attach himself to Roose's host before Roose makes it out of the Riverlands and it will be easy for Harwin to fit in with a northern host since he IS a northerner. Plus, like I said, it a win-win because if turns out the Bolton's dont have Arya, that relieves Harwin of the nearly impossible task of getting Arya out of Winterfell and back to the BWB and allows Harwin to eliminate Frey's and Bolton's which is the other main mission of the BWB right now. They often mention how easy it is for a man to attach himself to an army and that it is even preferrable and expected because he is given purpose and authority instead of being another dirty peasent to rob. We see Jaquen, Rorge, and Biter join the Lannisters right after the Lannisters destroy the whole party they were with via Amory Lorch. And the whole reason Bronn becomes a character of any significance is because Cat allows him to attach himself to her party even though he is just some sellsword she doesn't know. So Harwin most likely just strolled right up the Neck to Winterfell alongside the Bolton's like it was no big deal.

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On 12/18/2017 at 9:58 AM, Buddhakin said:

So I did a quick look around to see if anyone has already come to this conclusion but I didn't see anything so I apologize in advance to anyone who may have said this first and here we go.

All we know of the hooded man at Winterfell is that he knew of Theon well and may have known him personally based off his contempt for Theon and that Theon never saw his face. It is highly likely (but still not a fact) that the hooded man murdered Little Walder. 

Now lets shift to Harwin.

While it has been a while since I saw a hooded man thread, Harwin is usually a leading candidate for the honor.  Others include Hal Mollis (escorting Ned's remains), the Blackfish, Benjen Stark, Howland Reed, and Septon Chayle (who Theon threw down a well).  There are probably others I have forgotten.   At this point I don't think we have information for a good guess.

I doubt he was responsible for the murder of Little Walder, though.  There is little reason to murder an 8 year old without some personal reason for doing so.  Most posts on the subject think that Big Walder did it himself, either to advance in the Frey succession or as the result of a fight.  The Manderlys are also a possibility, since Little Walder was betrothed to Wylla Manderly, a match they would be determined to scotch.

 

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On 12/18/2017 at 11:58 AM, Buddhakin said:

So I did a quick look around to see if anyone has already come to this conclusion but I didn't see anything so I apologize in advance to anyone who may have said this first and here we go.

All we know of the hooded man at Winterfell is that he knew of Theon well and may have known him personally based off his contempt for Theon and that Theon never saw his face. It is highly likely (but still not a fact) that the hooded man murdered Little Walder. 

Now lets shift to Harwin. Harwin was one of the twenty men from Neds household guard that went off to assist Dondarrion in arresting Gregor Clegane. Of these twenty men, only six of them were still alive and with Dondarrion when the Brotherhood without Banners captured Arya (I don't remember whether or not Harwin includes himself in that number so it may be six besides Harwin, or six including Harwin, but that's beside the point right now) and it was Harwin who identified Arya. The last time we here specifically about Harwin in the story is when unidentified Catelyn Starks body and begs for her to be brought back to life, which Thoros refuses to do and Beric decides to do himself. 

Since it was Harwin's brilliant idea to revive Catelyn, it is safe to assume that he chose to stay with Stoneheart when the BWB divided into two groups, those who left with Edric Dayne, and those who remained with Stoneheart, it is also very likely that the other surviving Northmen remained with Stoneheart but we know nothing of their character development besides the fact that they exist and are still alive and where they originally came from. So Harwin is likely Stonehearts right hand man in the new BWB.

Next we must look at Stoneheart's movements and operations in the Riverlands which we see in the ASOS epilogue and Jamie's (and to a lesser extent, Briennes) POV chapters in the Riverlands in AFFC. Stoneheart is successfully infiltrating the ranks of Freys in the Riverlands well enough to learn when and where to catch them isolated enough to capture and kill them which means the BWB have a decent spy network in the Riverlands and the means to send information back and forth effectively enough to use the info effectively. We know this to be true because Tom of Sevens was at Riverrun during and after the seige and when Ryman Frey left the seige at Riverrun he was intercepted by Stoneheart. Stoneheart got her sons crown back from Ryman's whore.

Now, my attempt at dot-connecting leads me to believe that Stoneheart is well informed enough to know that Roose Bolton is returning North with Freys who played an active role in the Red Wedding and that they have Arya Stark who they plan to marry to Ramsay. We would have no way of knowing whether or not Stoneheart knows that this "Arya" is actually Jeyne Poole but that doesn't matter too much because Stoneheart would want to infiltrate their ranks regardless so she could attempt to pick of the Boltons and Freys in Winterfell. 

It would be an easy thing for one or a few men to attach themselves to the host returning North and Stoneheart would be sensible to send one of the Northmen from Ned's guard to travel with the Bolton-Frey host to Winterfell because they will naturally be able to fit in with Northmen better and know Winterfell better than anyone returning North with Roose. Harwin is the man for this job. It seems so out of character for Stoneheart, based off what we know about her and her intentions (to kill everyone who had a hand in  the ruin of her house and all those loyal to those people) for her to not attempt to send men North to kill off her enemies (and rescue her daughter, provided she believes that they have the real Arya). I concede that the hooded man very well could be one of the other 5 or 6 Northmen and that Theon would recognize any of them so they no matter which of them it is, they would still have to hide their identity from Theon. But it is most likely Harwin because not only are we familiar as readers with Harwin as opposed to one of these other BWB Northmen, but Harwin derives most of his plot contribution from his interaction with Arya and the fact that Arya (fake Arya anyway) is at Winterfell makes it seem more appropriate for Harwin to turn up there out of any BWB member. And like I said before, the hooded man is believed to be the culprit for the death of a Frey. Tell me what you think and thanks for reading!

It's been suggested before...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/110872-why-the-hooded-man-is-almost-certainly-harwin/

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/71236-new-theory-on-the-hooded-man-in-winterfell/

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/136014-who-is-the-hooded-man-in-winterfell/

The hooded man was the ghost of Reek's former self. It is known. 

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Nice explanation @Buddhakin.  I usually only see the "Theon Durden" theory, though admittedly I have not looked that hard for alternatives (besides the Blackfish being suggested).  I'm now convinced it's most likely Harwin.

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5 hours ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Nice explanation @Buddhakin.  I usually only see the "Theon Durden" theory, though admittedly I have not looked that hard for alternatives (besides the Blackfish being suggested).  I'm now convinced it's most likely Harwin.

Thanks! There are definitely a few good ones and the "Durden" one wouldn't make for bad writing at all. This one just seemed the most logical for me though. There are some I would prefer, like Benjen, to be the Hooded man just to have that character back in the active storyline but the BWB not infiltrating Winterfell doesn't make sense to me since they have good reason and opportunity to do so.

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On ‎12‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 11:58 AM, Buddhakin said:

snip

 

I was pretty solid in the Hallis Mollen camp untiI I read this:

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-hooded-man-uncloaked/

Now I'm not so sure.

I would put Harwin as a dark horse candidate: nothing to argue against it, but not a lot to support it either.

And it does appear that Theon sees the man's face:

Quote

Farther on, he came upon a man striding in the opposite direction, a hooded cloak flapping behind him. When they found themselves face-to-face their eyes met briefly.

So even if the hood is on the man's head and not flapping behind him as well, the fact that Theon can see his eyes means that the hood cannot be hiding the lower half of his face.

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On ‎29‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 6:02 PM, John Suburbs said:

 

I was pretty solid in the Hallis Mollen camp untiI I read this:

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-hooded-man-uncloaked/

Now I'm not so sure.

I would put Harwin as a dark horse candidate: nothing to argue against it, but not a lot to support it either.

And it does appear that Theon sees the man's face:

So even if the hood is on the man's head and not flapping behind him as well, the fact that Theon can see his eyes means that the hood cannot be hiding the lower half of his face.

The theory in your link is better because it gives a reason for mance looking like mance. However my hazy memory tells me mance couldn t take off the ruby and that mell used it to somehow control him, but I might be wrong...

 

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On ‎12‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 5:27 PM, divica said:

The theory in your link is better because it gives a reason for mance looking like mance. However my hazy memory tells me mance couldn t take off the ruby and that mell used it to somehow control him, but I might be wrong...

 

Mance wears a ruby on his wrist that darkens when the glamor is lifted, but I don't see anything that suggests he can't take it off. Theon doesn't notice it on Abel, and it would look rather odd for a common singer to be sporting a ruby.

I don't see any indication that Mance is being controlled either. Mance thinks Jon is holding his infant son, so that is pretty good assurance that he won't betray Jon if he gets ahold of Arya.

I know the Ryswell idea seems a little crazy, but it all fits.

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14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I know the Ryswell idea seems a little crazy, but it all fits.

Except that Mors hates Mance Rayder. He wouldn't cooperate with him.

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5 hours ago, Zapho said:

Except that Mors hates Mance Rayder. He wouldn't cooperate with him.

Well, he might...

Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect, or awe, for House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. 

Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowan on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. 

Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

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10 hours ago, Zapho said:

Except that Mors hates Mance Rayder. He wouldn't cooperate with him.

Does he know that he's Mance? I doubt they've ever met. Mance could be passing himself off as a watchman, sent by the Lord Commander, or simply as an agent of King Stannis and his red woman.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Well, he might...

Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect, or awe, for House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. 

Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowan on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. 

Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

Another interesting tidbit in all of this is the sudden desire of Lady DUstin to visit the crypts. Let's assume that there is a secret entrance to Winterfell through the lower levels, that still leaves two problems: 1) the door is covered with ice and debris, and 2 ) a single trail of footprints across the newly fallen snow would certainly arouse suspicion. By mounting her little expedition in search of Ned's bones, Lady Dustin can solve both problems at once. And it was right after this little show that the murders started.

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10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Well, he might...

Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect, or awe, for House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. 

Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowan on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. 

Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

When I look at the situation in WF at that time, I see Mance committing murders, and sabotaging the stables as an attempt to change the status quo.

With the staus quo as it is say Mance gets (F)Arya and gets out of WF, what then?  He is long leagues from any safe haven.  Since the gates are closed and seemingly well guarded, going over the walls was likely their only option, which means they would not have horses.  We know how well that worked for Ramsays victims.  Getting out of WF means nothing in that situation, in fact it means less than nothing as at least in their current situation no one knows who they are or is trying to kill them, whereas in that situation they would be hunted down and skinned.

Mance failed to change the status quo with his actions, but when the horns blow, the situation has changed.  They don't need to get a hundred miles, they only need to get a few hundred years to be relatively safe, because as Mance tells Theon, he thinks that is Stannis with his entire army.

That IMO is why Mance moves when he hears the horn, not because of a conspiracy.

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On ‎03‎/‎01‎/‎2018 at 10:35 PM, John Suburbs said:

Does he know that he's Mance? I doubt they've ever met. Mance could be passing himself off as a watchman, sent by the Lord Commander, or simply as an agent of King Stannis and his red woman.

Another interesting tidbit in all of this is the sudden desire of Lady DUstin to visit the crypts. Let's assume that there is a secret entrance to Winterfell through the lower levels, that still leaves two problems: 1) the door is covered with ice and debris, and 2 ) a single trail of footprints across the newly fallen snow would certainly arouse suspicion. By mounting her little expedition in search of Ned's bones, Lady Dustin can solve both problems at once. And it was right after this little show that the murders started.

However lady Dustin hates the starks. So would she really be interested in oposing roose for the starks?

Honestly, when I finished reading the book I thought that what was going to happen in the north was pretty clear. However as time goes on and I read new theories I think anything can happen.

Does lady dustin have any young female relatives she could marry to rickon? That is the only way I can see her being involved in the conspiracy. And I am not even sure there aren t several conspiracies afoot.

For example, isn t it likely that some iron born in torrhen's square sent wex to manderley in order to negotiate a trade. Rickon's location  and hostages (and maybe their holdings in the north) for theon so that they can invalidate the kingsmoot? So won t some northern lords demand theon from stannis while others would want him dead? 

Then are we really suposed to believe that robb's will won t appear while we are in this northern dilema?

And the fact that manderly got a cut on his neck won t interfer with his schemes for the upcomming war?

 

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20 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

When I look at the situation in WF at that time, I see Mance committing murders, and sabotaging the stables as an attempt to change the status quo.

With the staus quo as it is say Mance gets (F)Arya and gets out of WF, what then?  He is long leagues from any safe haven.  Since the gates are closed and seemingly well guarded, going over the walls was likely their only option, which means they would not have horses.  We know how well that worked for Ramsays victims.  Getting out of WF means nothing in that situation, in fact it means less than nothing as at least in their current situation no one knows who they are or is trying to kill them, whereas in that situation they would be hunted down and skinned.

Mance failed to change the status quo with his actions, but when the horns blow, the situation has changed.  They don't need to get a hundred miles, they only need to get a few hundred years to be relatively safe, because as Mance tells Theon, he thinks that is Stannis with his entire army.

That IMO is why Mance moves when he hears the horn, not because of a conspiracy.

Can t mance have escaped with the manderleys?

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2 hours ago, divica said:

Can t mance have escaped with the manderleys?

Theoretically sure.  That's just another reason not to believe in a conspiracy though, and fits perfectly with Mance trying to stir up trouble to change the status quo.  He can't escape with the Manderlys if they don't leave the castle.  However that would have to be Mance alone, the spearwives and F(Arya) couldn't have.

 

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Just now, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Theoretically sure.  That's just another reason not to believe in a conspiracy though, and fits perfectly with Mance trying to stir up trouble to change the status quo.  He can't escape with the Manderlys if they don't leave the castle.  However that would have to be Mance alone, the spearwives and F(Arya) couldn't have.

 

but mors is conspiring with the manderleys. So if mance is conspiring with the manderleys he is also conspiring with mors.

Or you think mors and the manderleys aren t working together?

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