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What if Tywin had Tommen marry Sansa?


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On 12/21/2017 at 7:11 AM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Not being funny, but this seems like a rather brazen attempt to crowbar your theory into an entirely separate discussion. I don't tend to mind things go off on a tangent organically out of a discussion, but it's kind of annoying when one's pretty much hijacked two comments in, and the thread becomes filled up with an unrelated subject, going over arguments that have been had several times before. 

Thank you....

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6 minutes ago, Foot_Of_The_King said:

How can you possibly claim you didn't hijack the thread when you wrote this a mere 2 comments in??

 

 

 

Dude.....

Because it answers the OP's question directly:

Q: What if Tywin had married Sansa to Tommen?

A: Then the rationale for killing Tyrion -- control of Winterfell and the north, and prevention of mad dog Tywin Lannister from forming a power bloc that would dwarf Highgarden's might -- would have shifted to Tommen.

Simple answer to a simple question. The hijacking comes when people deny the plain, obvious facts in the text to spout theories that have no basis in fact, text, rational thought or just plain common sense.

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12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Cressen does not see anything unusual about his wine at all.

Untrue. He doesn't describe his wine. He obviously knows it's poisoned though, so it makes sense why there is no description. 

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If you have text that shows Cressen's is the more poisoned, please share.

If you read my response earlier you know I said the concentration of poison in either of the two wines is never stated in the text. 

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but the burden is on you to explain why Cressen fails to notice the unusual color of his wine, not on me to explain why he failed to specifically note that his ordinary-looking wine looked completely ordinary.

Why? And I already did. I'm not trying to prove anything about which wine is more poisoned. 

 

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Cressen only puts a tiny "flake" of a crystal into a normal amount of wine,

Adding new adjectives like "tiny" to the text, eh?

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Cressen only puts a tiny "flake" of a crystal into a normal amount of wine, so if this small amount is enough to so obviously discolor the wine

Again, we don't know the wine color.

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

then surely in the hundreds, if not thousands, of years of the strangler's existence someone would have figured out that maybe deploying it in crystal form in wine is not the best way to do it, and that maybe a better way is to crush it into a powder and drop a few grains at a time.

Maybe. Unfortunately, none of this is in the text. 

 

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So sorry, but given the absence of any indication that Cressen's wine is in fact more poisoned than Joffrey's and the inconsistency that this would produce with what we know about the strangler's history, then there is absolutely no reason to conclude that Cressen consumed more poison than Joffrey.

Again, we don't know who's wine is more poisoned. 

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The chalice wound up in one of the most improbable places in the room, in literally the exact spot they needed it to be -- a foot to the left or a foot to the right and it would have been out of reach -- at exactly the right time when people's attention would be drawn to the cutting, and all of this after a series of utterly improbable events that could not possibly have been predicted nor planned for, and you just blow this off as "it worked out well"?

Yup. If they didn't do it when they did it, they would have found a different opportunity. 

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

but when it comes to actually deploying the poison they just figured, "well, we'll wing it; some opportunity will just magically present itself." What nonsense.

There is a big differencebetween "winging it" and waiting for the best opportunity. Please don't put words in my mouth.

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I am working on the proven certainty that they were trying to kill Tyrion, not frame him.

Proven certainty? Where is this proven?

You know the motivations to kill Joff. Killing him because he is cruel and Tommen would be easier is part of it. Spiriting Sansa away is part of it for LF. If Tyrion was to be the one choking a lot of eyes woukd go to Sansa as well, making her excape more difficult.

I'm wondering how the motivation for killing Tyrion works? You do know when this plan started Tyrion was presumed dead from his injuries on the Blackwater, right? Sansa's last chapter in CoK:

Quote

“Black amethysts from Asshai. The rarest kind, a deep true purple by daylight.”

“It’s very lovely,” Sansa said, thinking, It is a ship I need, not a net for my hair.

“Lovelier than you know, sweet child. It’s magic, you see. It’s justice you hold. It’s vengeance for your father.” Dontos leaned close and kissed her again. “It’s home.”

Notice the foreshadowing here as well. George leaves us like this for a few years before Storm comes out wondering how this will be revenge for her father. This doesn't work if Tyrion is the target.

As you said, "This is the culmination of months of planning, even decades of dynastic maneuvering, in which every detail has been arranged meticulously -- from the acquisition of the poison to the crafting of the hairnet to delivery of the hairnet to making sure it was worn to the wedding to retrieving the crystal --" 

Then Catelyn's first chapter in Storm,

Quote

"Jaime's word is worthless. As for the Imp, it's said he took an axe in the head during the battle. He'll be dead before your Brienne reaches King's Landing, if she ever does."

 

Quote

Does the text say Tyrion must breathe oxygen to stay alive?

This kind of reasoning is nonsensical. The reader knows how breathing works. Of course George does not need to explain it. The Strangler is a made up poison in a made up book. George explains what it is and how it works because it doesn't exist in real life. In his explanation and description of it he says it dissolves in wine. It does not say food or pie.

 

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On 31.1.2018 at 0:53 AM, Clegane'sPup said:

Did Sansa’s marriage take place before or after Lannister gave Roose fake Arya? I dunna remember.

The reason I ask is because if Joff & Tywin had not died Tywin could pull the rug out from under Bolton ---  it was Tywin who bestowed the Warden of the North upon Roose through the Kings decree.

If Tywin, wanted to renege on his deal with Bolton Sansa is the oldest of the Stark girls. She out ranks Arya. Not only did Tywin want Tyrion to get a baby in the belly, Roose also wanted Ramsey to get a baby in the belly.

Finally someone who asks this question, lol. :cheers:

Sansa married Tyrion before the Red Wedding. Fake Arya was sent away after the purple wedding, when Sansa was no longer available and wanted for kingslaying.

However, the wedding of Sansa and Tyrion must have taken place while Tywin negotiated the Red Wedding with Walder Frey and Roose Bolton. Or more likely shortly before negotiations were taken up. If I were Roose, I would have asked for Sansa to be married to his heir, not Arya. Especially not a fake Arya. It would only be reasonable from Roose's perspective.

I think it's possible that Tywin wanted to forestall this particular demand as soon as possible. Having the elder Stark daughter marry his son while he basically offered Roose her inheritance would have been seen by Roose as an affront. A sure sign that Tywin had no intentions of helping him keep the position. Roose would undoubtedly understand that this is what Tywin intended in the long run, but doing it during negotiations would have made it official. Something Roose could not ignore. It would have been the end of that particular alliance. Tywin needed to make the marriage a fait accompli before he ever proposed the deal.

Sansa had to be wed to a Lannister before Roose had a chance to ask for her hand. Tywin couldn't offer her because he couldn't be sure that Roose wouldn't double-cross him. He could not give Sansa away to a Northerner. The risk was too great and he wanted to keep her as a hostage: against both Roose and Stark loyalists.

Olenna Tyrell's scheme to marry Sansa to Willas might have provided a convenient excuse to Tywin to explain what he did to Roose - if Olenna had proposed the marriage officially, he would have been in a difficult position to deny her.

Another factor is probably that there was no guarantee that the Red Wedding would succeed. Robb was still alive at the time. That is probably also a major factor why Tyrion was chosen as Sansa's husband, not someone like Lancel or another cousin: It served as an insult to the Starks. Not just because he is a dwarf and thus not a desirable match despite his noble birth but also because he is the one who Cat accused of sending the cat's paw to kill Bran.

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On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Untrue. He doesn't describe his wine. He obviously knows it's poisoned though, so it makes sense why there is no description. 

If you read my response earlier you know I said the concentration of poison in either of the two wines is never stated in the text. 

Why? And I already did. I'm not trying to prove anything about which wine is more poisoned.

All the available text, as you are so fond of pointing out, indicates that Joffrey's wine contained more poison, and he consumes a vastly larger quantity of it. That is the evidence presented in the text. Many people try to explain the time discrepancy of the two poisonings, which is also clearly presented in the text, with the idea that Cressen's wine must have been more concentrated. There is no text to support this whatsoever, ergo the key pieces of evidence disputing the wine are drawn directly from the words on the page while the excuse used to gloss over these facts are based on absolutely nothing. Except wishful thinking.

In what possible way is anyone supposed to measure the exact concentration of both wines? Do you think they have CSI labs at every castle? The color is the clearest evidence of concentration, and if the poison had been dropped into the wine during the cutting rather than barfed into the chalice just as Joffrey fell, then all of the wine in the chalice would have been dark purple. So the text clearly shows that high concentrations of stranger does in fact change wine from red to purple, and it stands to reason that the more poison you add the more purple it will become. Therefore, we can logically conclude that if Cressen's 5X faster poison contains 5X more poison, then it should be 5X more purple than "deep purple." And if that is the case, then it is simply impossible that this poison would have gained the reputation it has gained over the centuries as a crystalline poison that is best deployed in wine. It's just too easy to spot.

So if you don't think Cressen's wine was more potent, then what is your excuse as to why he dropped so much more quickly than Joffrey? And please provide the full textual support for whatever you propose.

On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Adding new adjectives like "tiny" to the text, eh?

Again, we don't know the wine color.

Maybe. Unfortunately, none of this is in the text. 

 

Lol, sure, it was a HUGE flake -- even bigger than the seed-sized crystal it came from.

We know Cressen sees nothing but a "half-swallow." If his wine had been five times more purple than "deep purple" then there is no way that would not register in his mind as he is staring into a simple goblet in a well-lit room. If this is what the wine theory rests on, then sorry friend but it is hanging by the slimmest of threads.

It is in the text. In fact, it is your favorite quote: dissolved in wine. What isn't in the text is "crushed into a powder and dissolved in wine and nothing but wine." So the text is unambiguous on this point: the stranger comes in crystal form and is typically dissolved in wine, which would not be the case if just a flake of a crystal were to turn a normal amount of wine nearly black.

On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Again, we don't know who's wine is more poisoned. 

Yup. If they didn't do it when they did it, they would have found a different opportunity. 

There is a big differencebetween "winging it" and waiting for the best opportunity. Please don't put words in my mouth.

 

We can use the available text to form a logical conclusion, which is what I've done.

Waiting for some random "best" opportunity to suddenly present itself is the exact definition of winging it. Margaery, Mace and Allerie were sitting right next to Joffrey during the entire feast, and you contend that "best opportunity" is hours later when the chalice just happens to be placed right in front of the only Tyrell with the ability to poison it? Come on.

On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Proven certainty? Where is this proven?

Prove: to demonstrate the truth or existence of something by evidence or argument.

Physical proof: time discrepancy between the two poisonings. Contrary claims are self-evidently false, and all explanations presented so far have absolutely no text nor real-world facts to back them up.

Logistical proof: Neither LF nor Lady O nor anybody else involved has demonstrated an ability to predict the future, ergo they could not have known where the chalice would be at the crucial moment. Alternate claims that they could have poisoned the chalice at any time in any number of ways are utterly false because a) if they could have they would have rather than wait until practically the last moment before the bedding and b ) trying to capitalize on a random, unpredictable opportunity is one of the surest ways to get caught, just like the wine merchant in Vaes Dothrak. With Margaery's virtue on the line, not to mention the lives of virtually every Tyrell in Westeros, Lady O would have to be either incredibly stupid or completely out of her mind to agree to this plan, particularly when its lying, double-dealing, self-serving architect is safe and sound on his boat in the bay. She clearly is not, as shown unambiguously in the text.

Motivational proof: LF says he chose Joffrey for death so it would "keep his foes confused." This is as clear a lie as he's ever told. In what way does Joffrey's death confuse Littlefinger's foes about his motives and objectives? Nobody even knows he was involved. Not a single person on the planet is any more or less confused by Littlefinger now than they were before the murder. Furthermore, LF could have chosen anyone else in the room that night -- from Cersei to Tywin to Oberyn to Jalabhar Xho and it would have produced the exact same amount of confusion as Joffrey, which is precisely zero. But instead, he is going to target the most watched person in the room who is flashing a huge glittering golden cup like a giant fishing lure. Add to this the fact the LF is probably one of two people in the world with a proven ability to manipulate Joff into doing all kinds of things, which makes him a uniquely invaluable asset in any future attempts to sow dissension within House Lannister or between Lannister and Tyrell, the Iron Throne and Dorne or even between Lannsiter, Frey and Bolton, and it simply defies logic that a crafty game-player like Littlefinger would sacrifice his best piece on the board simply to stoke this imaginary confusion among his foes.

Meanwhile, Lady O's supposed motivations are even more ludicrous. Right off the bat, and as you like to point out, there is no text anywhere that even hints that she or Margaery have even the slightest desire to kill Joffrey, nor is there any text that Joff has any ill feelings toward Margaery, nor even a reason to be hostile towards her. The simple fact is, the Tyrells are on the verge of achieving a 17-year drive to make Margaery a queen and it would be the height of folly to throw that away just because maybe, someday Joffrey might give Margy a black eye. Plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns, and if that eventuality ever does emerge it can be dealt with at that time, quietly and in private, not when your entire family is at risk of imprisonment, torture and possible execution because your attempt to use the utterly random, completely unpredictable "best opportunity" goes south. And by then, of course, Margaery will have at least one, preferably more, heirs to the throne and she, Margaery Tyrell, would wield supreme, unchecked power throughout the realm.

The proof is all right there on the page: unimpeachable physical and logistical proof, coupled with the clear and unambiguous proof that both LF and the Tyrells had everything to gain by keeping Joffrey alive and everything to lose by killing him.

On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

You know the motivations to kill Joff. Killing him because he is cruel and Tommen would be easier is part of it. Spiriting Sansa away is part of it for LF. If Tyrion was to be the one choking a lot of eyes woukd go to Sansa as well, making her excape more difficult.

This is nonsense. Margaery has no reason to fear Joffrey's cruelty toward others. She plays him like a fiddle and is probably the only person in the world that he does not despise at this point. Tommen is 11 -- at least three years away from formally marrying Margy and fathering a son on her, so there is no logical reason why they would want to kill the king they have right here and right now in favor of a possible king later. Three years is a helluva long time for a feudal society at war. They would literally be throwing away the golden egg they are holding in their hands for one that may or may not be there in the future.

Have you ever seen someone choke to death? I have. Nobody is going to be looking at Sansa when there is a blue-faced, bug-eyed many dying in front of their eyes.

On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

I'm wondering how the motivation for killing Tyrion works? You do know when this plan started Tyrion was presumed dead from his injuries on the Blackwater, right? Sansa's last chapter in CoK:

Notice the foreshadowing here as well. George leaves us like this for a few years before Storm comes out wondering how this will be revenge for her father. This doesn't work if Tyrion is the target.

At any moment, Tyrion could father the next Lord of Winterfell on Sansa. This would give Tywin control of the north and produce a power bloc that covers well more than half the realm (the north, the riverlands, the westerlands, the crownlands and the stormlands). The Tyrells, and the Gardner kings before them, have maintained their own power bloc with houses Hightower and Redwyne for thousands of years, making them the hegemon in the realm for longer than anyone can remember. So now, in the span of 20 years, Casterly Rock would go from a relatively weak presence led by kindly old Tytos, to a military juggernaut that would easily outmatch Highgarden in the field, and it is now led by a mad dog lord who doesn't just fight his rivals and bring them to heel but invades their lands, burns their towns and villages, slaughters smallfolk by the thousands and utterly exterminates rival houses right down to the livery boys. Without question, this is a vastly more terrifying possibility for Lady O than whether or not Joffrey will give Margaery a few bruises and a black eye someday, and since the Reach and the westerlands share a common, ill-defined border that is at least 300 leagues long, conflict is all but inevitable.

Any plan to kill Joffrey could not have been in place by the Blackwater because then Lady O would have no reason to learn the "truth" about him from Sansa some months later -- she would already have him marked for death. (That whole conversation is absurd even if she hasn't made up her mind yet, but it takes too long to explain here. Ask me in a separate thread if you're interested). Littlefinger's motivation to kill Tyrion has been there all along (indeed, this would be his third attempt that I can see), but Lady O's did not arise until after his marriage to Sansa and after the Red Wedding.

Sure, foreshadowing. Revenge for you father. But I'll cop your same childish attitude: if only there was text that says he was talking about Joffrey.

On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

As you said, "This is the culmination of months of planning, even decades of dynastic maneuvering, in which every detail has been arranged meticulously -- from the acquisition of the poison to the crafting of the hairnet to delivery of the hairnet to making sure it was worn to the wedding to retrieving the crystal --" 

Then Catelyn's first chapter in Storm,

Lol, nice try. Tyrion was the last piece of the puzzle. At this point, the hairnet is to ensure that both the poison and Sansa will be at the wedding as planned regardless of who emerges as the actual target. But surely, only an abject idiot would go into a royal wedding with plans to murder the king and not have a clear idea as to exactly how it is to be done. The risk is already impossibly high, so just throwing the actual poisoning to chance ups the risk of failure even higher, and then all your dynastic plans come crashing down. To turn that around and say LF and LO were planning to kill Joffrey 10 years ago or even three months before more is absurd, and you I think know that.

On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:04 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

This kind of reasoning is nonsensical. The reader knows how breathing works. Of course George does not need to explain it. The Strangler is a made up poison in a made up book. George explains what it is and how it works because it doesn't exist in real life. In his explanation and description of it he says it dissolves in wine. It does not say food or pie.

 

Yes, it is nonsensical. Just as nonsensical as saying that a crystal that dissolves instantly in wine would not dissolve in any way in hot, moist pie filling. His poison is fictional, but crystals are not. There are all kinds of real crystals in the world, some that dissolve in water, wine and other things and some that do not, but there isn't a single one that behaves as you say. If what he describes as a "crystal" is a made-up thing in a made-up book, then what he describes as "air" is also a made-up thing in a made-up book.

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On ‎2‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 11:14 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

It’s Johns reality and we’re just living in it guys. Enjoy the ride

John must not consider himself a careful reader

Lol, far more careful than you, my friend. There is a whole world of backstory, side-story, subtext and subtly in ASoIaF at you're not getting.

 

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, far more careful than you, my friend. There is a whole world of backstory, side-story, subtext and subtly in ASoIaF at you're not getting.

 

It’s a grrm quote I linked to, so apparently you are not :(

George certainly hasn’t taken the time nor effort to tell me I’m not a careful reader, much less given an interview about it.

 

 “the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it.”

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/george-r-r-martin-on-who-killed-joffrey-20140414

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On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

Finally someone who asks this question, lol. :cheers:

Sansa married Tyrion before the Red Wedding. Fake Arya was sent away after the purple wedding, when Sansa was no longer available and wanted for kingslaying.

I'm pretty sure the wedding was before the Red Wedding. And it was certainly arranged before the Red Wedding happened as the Tyrells were plotting to marry here while Robb was likely still on his way back to Riverrun. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

So while Roose, and maybe even Walder, had agreed to flip at that stage the wedding had not yet been arranged or even brought up to Edmure when the various factions were plotting to marry Sansa in Kings Landing. 

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

However, the wedding of Sansa and Tyrion must have taken place while Tywin negotiated the Red Wedding with Walder Frey and Roose Bolton.

It happens later on. 

There is little reason for Tywin to give up his main Northern hostage. He is already offering Roose the Wardenship, the Winterfell lands (however temporarily) with a fake Arya and peace. He is not in a position were he has to offer much more and Roose himself is not in that strong a position that he can make further demands given that Ramsay has already forced his hand while he clearly acknowledges that in the aftermath of the Blackwater Robb has lost. 

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

 

Or more likely shortly before negotiations were taken up. If I were Roose, I would have asked for Sansa to be married to his heir, not Arya. Especially not a fake Arya. It would only be reasonable from Roose's perspective.

But not from Tywin's. 

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

I think it's possible that Tywin wanted to forestall this particular demand as soon as possible. Having the elder Stark daughter marry his son while he basically offered Roose her inheritance would have been seen by Roose as an affront.

Roose is getting the North for at least the next decade, likely longer as Tyrion is not really fit to be Warden and it would be 20 years before his sons are fit to do so. What happens after that is anyone's guess. It is more than possible that Tywin and Roose himself will not be around when the battle for the North between the children of the Stark daughters happens. 

Tywin may have the the best claimants in Sansa and her offspring but Roose will actually have control of the North, have the influence of the Northern bannerman (after he has subdued them) and be able to arrange political matches for his grandchildren and supporters within the North to strengthen their claim. 

And of course there is the fact that Roose simply may not care what happens after his death.  

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

 

A sure sign that Tywin had no intentions of helping him keep the position. Roose would undoubtedly understand that this is what Tywin intended in the long run, but doing it during negotiations would have made it official. Something Roose could not ignore. It would have been the end of that particular alliance. Tywin needed to make the marriage a fait accompli before he ever proposed the deal.

Roose needed that alliance as well. Ramsay taking Winterfell had screwed him over. The North had lost and Roose likely had little incentive to carry on fighting an unwinnable war. 

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

Sansa had to be wed to a Lannister before Roose had a chance to ask for her hand. Tywin couldn't offer her because he couldn't be sure that Roose wouldn't double-cross him.

Sure, but he also did not have to offer her.  Roose is not in a position to make unreasonable demands. The North has lost and all the Red Wedding do was take the North quicker and with fewer casualties than a Crown invasion would have done, but it would have done so. 

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

 

He could not give Sansa away to a Northerner. The risk was too great and he wanted to keep her as a hostage: against both Roose and Stark loyalists.

That is very much true. 

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

Olenna Tyrell's scheme to marry Sansa to Willas might have provided a convenient excuse to Tywin to explain what he did to Roose - if Olenna had proposed the marriage officially, he would have been in a difficult position to deny her.

I really don't think Tywin was in a position were he felt he needed to make excuses to Roose. Roose's rule of the North is determined by three things

  •  the support of Northerners like Dustin, Ryswell, some Karstarks and others'; something that the Crown has no control over
  • the support of the Crown, giving him the title of Warden
  • the support of the Freys, which can be lost if Tywin demands it and starts circling the now vulnerable Twins if they refuse to obey the Crown and bring their troops home

 

 

On 03/02/2018 at 3:52 PM, Zapho said:

It served as an insult to the Starks. Not just because he is a dwarf and thus not a desirable match despite his noble birth but also because he is the one who Cat accused of sending the cat's paw to kill Bran.

Why would this matter? I think you are stretching this and it kind of contradicts what you have already said about the marriage being arranged after Robb's death at the Red Wedding had already been arranged. 

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6 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I'm pretty sure the wedding was before the Red Wedding. And it was certainly arranged before the Red Wedding happened as the Tyrells were plotting to marry here while Robb was likely still on his way back to Riverrun. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

So while Roose, and maybe even Walder, had agreed to flip at that stage the wedding had not yet been arranged or even brought up to Edmure when the various factions were plotting to marry Sansa in Kings Landing.

It happens later on. 

I'm not quite sure what you are disagreeing with here. I answered someone's question whether Tyrion and Sansa's wedding happened before or after fakeArya was given to the Boltons. I got the feeling you misunderstood the premise here.

6 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

There is little reason for Tywin to give up his main Northern hostage. He is already offering Roose the Wardenship, the Winterfell lands (however temporarily) with a fake Arya and peace. He is not in a position were he has to offer much more and Roose himself is not in that strong a position that he can make further demands given that Ramsay has already forced his hand while he clearly acknowledges that in the aftermath of the Blackwater Robb has lost. 

The Lannister position depended heavily on the Tyrells and Stannis was defeated but still around. The Vale was still neutral with family ties to Robb. I'd argue that Tywin needed Roose as much as Roose needed Tywin. Roose could have chosen to wait and see a bit longer. In case Robb was defeated, the Lannisters were going to need allies in the North anyway. And Robb was still undefeated in the field.

There is a huge difference between keeping Sansa as a hostage and marrying her to his own son. The objective of the Red Wedding was to kill Robb. Which would make Sansa heiress to Winterfell and all other Stark claims to the North, the Wardenship etc. If Tywin had offered the Wardenship first, then took steps to make sure Sansa's claims were kept within his family, it'd be like offering something with one hand while holding a knife in the other to take it away again. 

We don't know when things were agreed upon but we do know when they happened. Fake Arya 'inherited' Sansa's position on the playing field (i. e. the claims to Winterfell and the North) when Sansa disappeared as a wanted kingslayer and her husband was about to lose his head. FArya was shipped off to the North after the Purple Wedding. She was not married to another Lannister. She was not kept in King's Landing. This suggests to me that Roose was in a position to demand that Tywin help him solidify the Bolton claim to the North with a marriage. It's not even against Lannister interests to help their allies, on the contrary.

Would fArya have been part of the initial agreement between Tywin and Roose? Maybe, but I think it's doubtful, because she was of little value - Sansa was the heiress, not Arya. And while Sansa was around - hostage or not - the fArya mummer's show was in too much risk of backfiring on the puppet masters.

Would Sansa have been a topic in the negotiations between Tywin and Roose if they started before Sansa was married to Tyrion? It would be only logical imho. In this scenario, whether Roose demanded Sansa's hand or not, whether Tywin was willing to give her to the Boltons eventually or not, marrying her off to someone else would have raised issues, because the Wardenship of the North was Bolton's promised reward for taking a huge risk and Sansa's 'value' on the marriage market was her ability to threaten those claims. 

6 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Roose needed that alliance as well. Ramsay taking Winterfell had screwed him over. 

This is not at all proven. Ramsay successfully framed the Ironborn for the sack of Winterfell. And the timing is unclear, it's possible it happened on Roose's order after the Red Wedding betrayal was agreed upon. Or on Roose's order before the Red Wedding was hatched, in a bid to gain leadership of the Northern forces for himself by proving that the Starks were useless. There's the question how Ramsay managed to order the Bolton garrison to commit something of this magnitude without Roose's sayso. And another question is why Ramsay sacked Winterfell instead of securing it whole. 

I only see a couple of possible sequences of events here:

  • Sansa was married to Tyrion before Tywin and Roose started talking to each other. This would be a thight time-frame, but not impossible.
  • The threat of the Tyrells (or a third party) snatching Sansa away was too great and too immediate - she had to be taken off the marriage market asap and married to someone who Tywin could claim would not use that marriage to threaten the Boltons. This would have made negotiations difficult though because the value of Roose's reward took a significant slump anyway and trust issues between Roose and Tywin (which would be there anyway given their personalities and the delicate nature of the deal) could have been exacerbated to the point of bursting the deal.
  • Roose and Tywin agreed upon marrying Sansa to Tyrion because they agreed that getting her off the market and keeping her in their camp was more important than securing the Bolton claim to the North. I suppose that's possible if Tywin wanted to endanger Tyrion's life.

I personally prefer the first option, that the Red Wedding was planned later rather than for a long time and that Sansa was already married to Tyrion by then. The reason is that I highly doubt that Roose would risk it without getting every possible insurance from Tywin that was available. 

 

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Roose told Jaime and Brienne when they were taken to Harrenhal that Arya had been located and he would be sending her North.  This suggests that the FArya plot had been in the works prior to the Red Wedding, let alone the Purple Wedding.  Sansa was already married by that point.so Roose was under no illusions on that score.  He probably figured that Sansa would be kept from the North, or that Tyrion would be even less acceptable to the Northerners that he was.  It is also worth noting that "Arya" is as much a hostage as a source of legitimacy, or even more so.

@John Suburbs, yes you have hijacked the thread.  Essentially nobody but yourself takes seriously the idea that the poison was in the pie, or that Tyrion was the target.

When Sansa was given the poison, Tyrion was uncertain to even survive, and there was no motive for Sansa to kill him in any event.  And it is quite clear that giving her the hairnet was intended to help frame her.  That plus George's comment to Rolling Stone mentioned above are convincing to me. even if I thought your theory had legs, which I don't.  But that ground has been thoroughly covered, so I won't belabor the point

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16 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It’s a grrm quote I linked to, so apparently you are not :(

George certainly hasn’t taken the time nor effort to tell me I’m not a careful reader, much less given an interview about it.

 

 “the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it.”

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/george-r-r-martin-on-who-killed-joffrey-20140414

Sorry, I still don't see any link in your post. But sure, "careful readers" would draw that conclusion, just as they would have drawn the conclusion that Jaime and Cersei killed Jon Arryn. But the truth was in the subtext and it resolved all of the disconnects with the actual text that "careful readers" back then would have just chalked up to "lazy writing". So just be patient. The truth about the PW will all be explained in nice simple language very shortly. B)

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2 hours ago, Nevets said:

 

@John Suburbs, yes you have hijacked the thread.  Essentially nobody but yourself takes seriously the idea that the poison was in the pie, or that Tyrion was the target.

When Sansa was given the poison, Tyrion was uncertain to even survive, and there was no motive for Sansa to kill him in any event.  And it is quite clear that giving her the hairnet was intended to help frame her.  That plus George's comment to Rolling Stone mentioned above are convincing to me. even if I thought your theory had legs, which I don't.  But that ground has been thoroughly covered, so I won't belabor the point

Wrong on both points. My contributions directly answer the OP's questions; certainly more relevant than what Roose did or did not know about Arya. And nearly every time this subject comes up I get PMs from people who say how obviously right I am but are afraid to contribute because of all the rude, hostile blowback they see.

At the time the hairnet was delivered, the only objective was to make sure that it could be kept in a safe place and that both Sansa and the poison would be in the same place at the same time when it came time to use it. No matter who the eventual target is, it was crucial to get her the hairnet early, in the still chaotic aftermath of the battle, because there is no way to be certain that it could be delivered later. This is entirely different from walking into the throne room having been planning this murder for months, and on which literally decades of dynastic ambitions and GoT-strategizing hang in the balance, and having no idea how you are going to deliver the poison or if this "best opportunity" will magically present itself.

In what way is the hairnet supposed to frame Sansa? The only way this is possible is if Lady O does not know that Littlefinger is planning to spirit her away. And if she doesn't know this, then she has absolutely no reason to trust the very man who lied to her face and got her into this mess in the first place who now, out of the goodness of his heart, says he wants you to poison the king in front of a thousand witnesses at a time when nearly your entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards all while he, the liar, is safe and sound on his boat out in the bay.

Then we also have the problem that even if Sansa is still standing there with a dead king on the floor, who is then going to stand up and say "Aha! A tiny missing crystal on a hairnet that I spied with my eagle eye. Obviously this is a poison that hardly anyone in the world knows about but I have deduced is the only thing that could have killed the king. Take her away, boys." Please give me any plausible scenario in which the hairnet can be identified as part of the murder without drawing heavy suspicion on whomever points this out to the Lannisters.

And even if this did magically happen somehow, the hairnet is the last thing Lady O would want to use to frame Sansa. Nobody, least of all Tywin Lannister, is going to believe that little Sansa, who has no friends and no money, was able to acquire this rare and expensive poison and commission a silver hairnet with a trick clasp, all so that instead of just carrying the poison in a pocket she can parade it around the throne room for all to see. The only reason for the hairnet is to allow someone else to take the poison. So the first obvious question, as the hot poker is barely inches from Sansa's pretty blue eye, is "who gave you the hairnet, my lady?" To which she will reply, Dontos, who will be dead by now but this proves, as if there was any doubt, that there is a larger conspiracy here. The next obvious question is, "who was at your hair today, my lady." To which she may reply Shae, but since Shae is Sansa's handmaiden this is not altogether unusual. Anybody else? "Why, Lady Olenna said the wind had been at my hair. But come to think of it, there was no wind that day, and isn't the purpose of a hairnet to keep the hair in place even if the wind is blowing?" And quick as you please, the guards are banging down Lady Olenna's door and carting her off to the black cells.

So, no, there is absolutely no possible reason that Lady O would want the hairnet to frame Sansa, because that trail leads directly back to her. This is simply another made up excuse that people blithely toss out with no text and no rational basis and without applying even a modicum of critical thought, just because they cannot dispute the clear and incontrovertible proof that their shallow understanding of the text is completely wrong.

All of GRRM's comments on this subject are a mish-mash of talk about the book, the show and historical precedent. As usual, he has a way of talking that allows gullible people to think he's saying whatever they want him to say. To wit, here is the entire quote again:

Quote

In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

Did you get the part about "I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal"? Or did that fall victim to the selective use of facts that props up the rest of the wine theory?

 

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7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

I'm not quite sure what you are disagreeing with here. I answered someone's question whether Tyrion and Sansa's wedding happened before or after fakeArya was given to the Boltons. I got the feeling you misunderstood the premise here.

I disagreed with the idea that Sansa was ever a possibility for Roose or that he was ever in a position to ask for her. 

7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

There is a huge difference between keeping Sansa as a hostage and marrying her to his own son. The objective of the Red Wedding was to kill Robb.

I disagree with this. Had Robb sued for peace before the Red Wedding it likely would have been accepted. by Tywin (Joffrey is a whole other matter). The objective was to bring the North into the Crown without wasting any of his own troops and having a Northern Warden willing to swear fealty to the Throne. Merely killing Robb does not do this, Tywin has to have Robb's successor loyal to the Crown. 

The Red Wedding was sanctioned by Walder and planned by Lame Lothar and Roose Bolton. Tywin has nothing to do with the plan beyond accepting their deal and offering them incentives to do so. 

Roose and Walder had the agency in the Red Wedding, not Tywin. Walder to kill someone he felt had dishonoured him and Roose to remove Robb and all other possible rival factions that could stand in his way of ruling the North. Roose actually benefits from the Red Wedding more than Walder or Tywin, he keeps his army and has the rival northern army removed. 

7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

 

Which would make Sansa heiress to Winterfell and all other Stark claims to the North, the Wardenship etc. If Tywin had offered the Wardenship first, then took steps to make sure Sansa's claims were kept within his family, it'd be like offering something with one hand while holding a knife in the other to take it away again.

The Wardenship and rule of Winterfell are two separate titles. The Wardenship is not hereditary. 

And I'd be very surprised if the offer came from Tywin. It likely came from Roose and Roose had already agreed to sacrificing Glover and a large portion of the Northern army at Duskendale before Robb had even left from the West, the Freys has agreed to join him or Edmure had even agreed to marry a Frey or that the marriage should be at the Twins. 

Roose was all in before a marriage was even arranged and the twin decisions of Ramsay taking Winterfell with the Bolton garrison and his fake orders of Robb ordering Duskendale meant that Robb living was against his best wishes. 

Simply put, Roose is in no position to start issuing demands regarding Sansa. He has played his hand, he is all in. And that is even before Robb has came up with the wedding proposal or Edmure or the Freys have agreed to it. 

7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

We don't know when things were agreed upon but we do know when they happened. Fake Arya 'inherited' Sansa's position on the playing field (i. e. the claims to Winterfell and the North) when Sansa disappeared as a wanted kingslayer and her husband was about to lose his head. FArya was shipped off to the North after the Purple Wedding.

But agreed upon before hand when Sansa was still in play and still had a claim to Winterfell. We see this from the interaction between Roose, Brienne and Jaime at Winterfell

“Is there word of Arya Stark?” Brienne leaned forward. “Lady Catelyn had feared that… is the girl still alive?”
“Oh, yes,” said the Lord of the Dreadfort.
“You have certain knowledge of that, my lord?”
Roose Bolton shrugged. “Arya Stark was lost for a time, it was true, but now she has been found. I mean to see her returned safely to the north.”

This conversation happens both before Red and Purple Weddings. I really doubt there was ever a time when Sansa was on the cards for Roose.

 

7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

 

She was not married to another Lannister. She was not kept in King's Landing. This suggests to me that Roose was in a position to demand that Tywin help him solidify the Bolton claim to the North with a marriage. It's not even against Lannister interests to help their allies, on the contrary.

Well she's not a Stark, she is a fake. Why would Tywin demean his own House by marrying a fake?

Women inheriting the North is hard enough (see the granddaughters of Cregan Stark) to further complicate matters with relying on a fake. 

Tywin was likely happy enough giving away the fake as it makes Tyrion's job a little easier. 

7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

Would fArya have been part of the initial agreement between Tywin and Roose? Maybe, but I think it's doubtful, because she was of little value - Sansa was the heiress, not Arya. And while Sansa was around - hostage or not - the fArya mummer's show was in too much risk of backfiring on the puppet masters.

Roose is claiming he is taking Arya home to Jaime, and that is when he is  clearly worried about what Jaime is going to tell his father about the loss of his hand. 

I really think you are overestimating the power Roose has in this negotiation. And given his indifference at the prospect of  Ramsay killing his son's from Walda it may well be that he simply does not care about what happens after he is gone and is simply happy to be the Warden. 

7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

Would Sansa have been a topic in the negotiations between Tywin and Roose if they started before Sansa was married to Tyrion? It would be only logical imho. 

Not from Tywin's perspective.

7 minutes ago, Zapho said:

This is not at all proven. Ramsay successfully framed the Ironborn for the sack of Winterfell.

No, not successfully. Robb is currently a thousand miles away, so can not possibly know but there were many survivors from the battle of Winterfell, many of whom have since joined Stannis against the Boltons

GRRM: "Most of the leaders of Ser Rodrik's host were slain, but a good many of the common soldiers survived and have doubtless straggled back to their villages and holdfasts, spreading tales as they go. Of course, the situation was confused enough so that the tales may disagree, even with each other..."

Roose was screwed once Robb returned. At best he'd lose his influence with Robb even if Robb blamed it all on Ramsay and the Bolton garrison and at worst he'd share Ramsay's fate. 

Sansa was never an option, just like the Freys were never going to receive the Riverlands for committing the Red Wedding. The two of them had their own incentives for the Red Wedding and were were rewarded for it but neither were in a position to name their price. 

 

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Happy trails. But I'm sorry that I never got an answer to my question that if "dissolved in wine" means wine and only wine since the text mentions no other possibility, then why doesn't the same rule apply to "It's, kof, the pie, noth -- kof, pie"?

I didn't respond because I don't know what you are trying to insinuate. Are you saying that Joff thinks his pie is poisoned?

Cressen is giving us Strangler 101 when he tells us that it can be dissolved in wine. This is not the same as Joff explaining that his coughing is due to the pie. Marg says, "Your grace?" She is asking if he is okay. Joffrey is trying to say his coughing is no big deal. He is saying the coughing is because he thinks the pie is dry. You realize when he says noth, it was supposed to be nothing, right? You realize the Strangler is supposed to make it look like the person choked, right?

You are working under the assumption that Cressen's poisoning and Joff's poisoning must occur in the exact same timeframe. I make no such assumptions. 

I don't understand the point you are trying to make here. 

Quote

“My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.” Holding the chalice one-handed, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion’s pie. “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. “See, it’s good.” Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.” Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. “I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want …” His words broke up in a fit of coughing.

Margaery looked at him with concern. “Your Grace?”

“It’s, kof, the pie, noth—kof, pie.” Joff took another drink, or tried to, but all the wine came spewing back out when another spate of coughing doubled him over. His face was turning red. “I, kof, I can’t, kof kof kof kof …”

 

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16 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

I didn't respond because I don't know what you are trying to insinuate. Are you saying that Joff thinks his pie is poisoned?

Cressen is giving us Strangler 101 when he tells us that it can be dissolved in wine. This is not the same as Joff explaining that his coughing is due to the pie. Marg says, "Your grace?" She is asking if he is okay. Joffrey is trying to say his coughing is no big deal. He is saying the coughing is because he thinks the pie is dry. You realize when he says noth, it was supposed to be nothing, right? You realize the Strangler is supposed to make it look like the person choked, right?

You are working under the assumption that Cressen's poisoning and Joff's poisoning must occur in the exact same timeframe. I make no such assumptions. 

I don't understand the point you are trying to make here. 

 

Lol, welcome back.

Cressen is telling us what he has read in books about the strangler. Joffrey is telling us what he is experiencing as the strangler is closing up his throat.

Under your rules, as you've stated above, if the text does not explicitly state that the strangler can be dissolved in food then we cannot assume that it can. So applying that same criterion to Joffrey, if he says it is the pie that is causing him to cough, why is it you are free to disregard what's in the text and make the completely unsupported assumption that it is the wine?

If you were presenting an honest argument, you would apply the same rules to all the text, not just the pieces that support your theory.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Under your rules, as you've stated above, if the text does not explicitly state that the strangler can be dissolved in food then we cannot assume that it can. So applying that same criterion to Joffrey, if he says it is the pie that is causing him to cough, why is it you are free to disregard what's in the text and make the completely unsupported assumption that it is the wine?

The pie is causing him to cough. I'm not disputing that. He can't swallow it. His throat is beginning to tighten because he drank the Strangler. 

What, specifically, am I disregarding here?

15 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If you were presenting an honest argument, you would apply the same rules to all the text, not just the pieces that support your theory.

What rules am I not applying?

I don't see how you think you are turning this into support for the poison being in the pie.

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On 2/5/2018 at 3:43 PM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, I still don't see any link in your post. But sure, "careful readers" would draw that conclusion, just as they would have drawn the conclusion that Jaime and Cersei killed Jon Arryn. But the truth was in the subtext and it resolved all of the disconnects with the actual text that "careful readers" back then would have just chalked up to "lazy writing". So just be patient. The truth about the PW will all be explained in nice simple language very shortly. B)

If you can’t see the link, try a different browser because it literally shows up in your post. Can’t believe you call GRRM a liar.  Maybe Ran can show you the link

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